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markos

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Everything posted by markos

  1. markos
    Two trades from last year that may offer some comparison: 1) Angels traded 3 years of Mark Trumbo to the Diamondbacks. It was a complicated 3-team trade, so it is a little difficult to work out the exact comparison, but generally speaking the trade was Trumbo for two youngish pitchers: Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs. 2) The Cardinals traded 2 years of David Freese to the Angels for Peter Bourjos and Randal Grichuk. I think they should be able to get at least 1 league-average player for Plouffe.
  2. markos
    The hope with Masterson is that the velocity decline is a direct result of a sore knee that he dealt with all season. If he knee heals this offseason, he may be back to normal.
  3. markos
    Morales did have different liabilities. I don't think he is nearly as good as the 4 players you alluded to above. Morales was in a similar position as Cuddyer this year. I think Cuddyer would be crazy to decline the QO, just like I though Morales was crazy to decline it last year. Drew and Santana had similar liabilities, I will give you that. But I think they both grossly misjudged their respective markets, which had as much to do with their ultimate situation as did declining the QO. Santana in particular. He was asking for a $100MM deal. Considering Jimenez signed a 4yr/$50MM deal with a QO attached, I'm fairly sure Santana could have found something similar had he been open to it right away. And it should be noted that he ended up signing for exact the QO amount, so he didn't lose a thing by declining the QO (except maybe a chance to go to the World Series). According to the rumors, Drew had some offers (including multi-year offers) early in the offseason, but turned them down. Looking back, I was wrong about Drew. I definitely though he would have a bigger market, and I thought he would be a much better player this year. It will be interesting to see if any players wait until June to sign this year. Who do you consider the borderline players this year? Were you saying in your previous post that Liriano, Martin, Cruz and Martinez should all accept the QO?
  4. markos
    I think the liabilities that you mention are reasons these players SHOULD decline the qualifying offers. They may not be in line to exceed the AAV of the qualifying offer, but they will probably get multi-year deals which would mitigate some of their future risk if they fall off a cliff or get injured. Granted, I'm fairly risk-adverse, so it makes sense to me for Cruz or Martinez to take even a 2yr/$24MM deal over a 1yr/$15MM qualifying offer. Also, I wonder if more teams are going to try to Baltimore model and try to sign multiple QO free agents to minimize the draft impact. There are several big-market clubs that have protected first round picks this year (Texas, Boston, White Sox, Cubs, Phillies) who might go that route. In particular, I could definitely see the White Sox doing that.
  5. markos
    Of this list, I think Cuddyer is the only one to accept.
  6. markos
    I'm very bullish on Turner as well. I think he had a really good season that was masked by a combination of a bad April and the crappy run-scoring environment that is the Florida State league. I know it gets a little dangerous arbitrarily throwing out bad data, but if you take away his April, he had a .770 OPS which would have had him as one of the top-20 hitters in the FSL. Additionally, if he had switched his April and August around, the narrative would have been a lot different. I think everyone would be a lot more excited about him, he might have been promoted to AA, and his bad month would be easily excused by "tiring at the end of the season." As it was, his slow start sank his stat line for the entire season, and I wouldn't be surprised if some people have Garver ahead of him on their prospect rankings.
  7. markos
    I agree with this 100%. The other big question about Maddon is how much of his value is due to the backing of the Rays front office? Will he be as effective without the stats/data that he is accustomed to?
  8. markos
    Keith Law and Chris Crawford released their top-30 ranking for the 2015 draft. http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=2128 It is an Insider piece so I won't share everything, but the here are some interesting details: - 6 of the top 7 players are pitchers. - 3 shortstops in the top 13. Overall, it looks to be a good draft for pitchers.
  9. markos
    To the best of my knowledge, it is considered a hitters league because 1) its location and weather, and 2) most of the best pitchers are shut down by this part of the season. The latter varies year to year, and this year the pitchers are particularly strong because several big names (Appel, Walker and Bradley) were all injured this season and need the extra innings. But I would still guess that it favors the hitters.
  10. markos
    I don't follow the Rays day in and day out so I might be missing things, but I've never gotten the impression that Madden is some kind of extraordinary manager. He has received a lot of support from sabermetrically inclined writers and analysts, but I have yet to read a convincing, detailed statistical account as to what exactly he does that separates him from the rest of the managers in baseball. I feel like he gets the benefit of the doubt since he had worked with THE sabermetric front-office for so many years, and if they stick with him then he must be good. Undoubtedly, there are things he does well. I think he has been very good at maximizing his roster by using platoons and positioning to put his players in the best position to succeed. Additionally, he seems to be able to foster a great clubhouse culture. However, in other ways he is still fairly standard. His intentional walk numbers are league average, as are his sacrifice bunt numbers. Also, I haven't notice that his bullpen usage is particularly unconventional. I am definitely open to having my mind changed if others have strong arguments in Madden's favor. But considering that it sounds like he wants to be one of the top-paid managers in the game, I'm not sure he is worth it.
  11. markos
    Seth, do you have any sense whether Goodrum will be added to the 40-man roster this offseason or not? My initial thought is that he wouldn't be drafted if left unprotected - he's too raw and only at high-A - but last year I thought the same about Kepler who was added.
  12. markos
    Outside the big 3, I would be fine with Santana, Masterson, Brandon McCarthy or Jake Peavy as the second tier. Most of the other pitchers on your list seem more like no-upside back-of-the-rotation guys, and I would rather see some combination of May/Meyer/Milone to that. Also, I wouldn't object to a cheap reclamation project either. Billingsley was mentioned, and I think Scott Baker might fit as well.
  13. markos
    I agree. The 2013 bullpen was above-average, with the peripherals to back it up (roughly average strikeout rate and HR rate, above average walk rate). In 2014, the bullpen was last in baseball in strikeout rate. They were able to overcome this problem in the first half of the season because they were among the best at preventing home runs. However, the HR rate regressed in the second half of the season, and the above-average walk rate wasn't able to counterbalance the dismal strikeout rate. Even in the first half of 2014, the strikeout rate dropped from 21% to 17%. It wasn't an issue of overexposure.
  14. markos
    I'm curious how your top-6 list of Twins outfield prospects shakes out. My list is something like the following... 1) Buxton <large gap> 2) Rosario <smaller gap> 3a) Walker 3b) Kepler 3c) Harrison (I guess this would be different if you are considering Sano in the outfield. For the time being I still think of him at 3B) I think that Walker, Kepler and Harrison are all about equal. They all ended up with nearly identical wRC+ this past season. Harrison and Kepler controlled the strike zone well but had little power; Walker was the exact opposite. Some power guys eventually develop decent plate discipline. Many don't. Some plate discipline guys eventually develop power. Many don't. My guess is that one of those three will make it to the big leagues as something like an average regular; the other two won't. But I have know idea which one to pick.
  15. markos
    I was going to make the exact same point. Moustakas was drafted 7 years ago. Hosmer 6 years ago. Perez and Herrera were signed 8 years ago. 4 years ago they had the top-ranked farm system in baseball and arguably one of the best of all time (5 players in BA top 20). If Buxton/Sano are the Twins' equivalent prospects, and if 2013 was their "best farm system" season, then it could take until 2017 or longer before the Twins return to the playoffs. This rebuild will take patience.
  16. markos
    Regarding Meyer, McDaniel isn't the first person to suggest the bullpen. Last offseason in the Twins top-10 list, BP pegged his "Realistic Role" as a late-innings reliever. I don't recall if any of the other outfits (ESPN, BA, MLB, Sickels) had similar concerns last year. It will be interesting to read what the prospect analysts write about Meyer this season. His command hasn't seemed to improve (highest walk rate of his career) and this is now the second consecutive season that he has been shut down due to shoulder issues despite being handled very delicately. I think the durability issues more than anything else will be what pushes him into the bullpen. Even with shoddy command, he will be no more maddening than Liriano. But if he can't pitch more than 100 innings a year without getting hurt, he should just go to the bullpen.
  17. markos
    If there is a lesson to be learned from last night's game, it is that it sucks to not have your best starter lined up for the wildcard game. Additionally, it also sucks to waste your best starter on the last game of the year in a failed attempt to try to force a tie in the division.
  18. markos
    I definitely agree that attendance should not validate a baseball strategy. However, I was referring more to the business side, and how that interacts with the baseball side. In order to execute a full teardown like the Astros, there has to be buy in from ownership. Four years of intentional losing have hurt attendance and revenues from TV and sponsorship deals, though this has been offset in part by lower payrolls. If Houston returns to winning but ownership is unable to monetize those wins because fan interest fails to bounce back, then it seems unlikely that other owners will support this strategy. Anyway, I understand this is totally off topic, but to me this is one of the most interesting questions about the Astros strategy.
  19. markos
    For what its worth, this season's attendance for the Royals is the highest since 1991, and 80% of their attendance peak in the 1980s. I'm interested to see how the attendance bounces back in Houston. Despite a slight uptick this year, they are only at 55% of of their MinuteMaid Park peak. To put that in perspective, the Twins would need to lose 20% of their attendance this year to match that level (though it could very well happen). I wonder how long it will take for the Astros to rehabilitate their market.
  20. markos
    First, I just want to say that I'm super excited for this draft thread. The 2014 thread was fantastic last year - a great place to share information and have smart discussion. I hope 2015 is similar. Second, I think Daz Cameron is the favorite right now. As a toolsy high school outfielder with solid bloodlines, he seems to check most of the boxes the Twins like. As far as my personal pick, I liked Aiken a lot last year and right now he would be my pick. Yes, it is way too early, but still fun.
  21. markos
    It is way too early to think about making a blockbuster trade using prospects. To mimic the Royal's situation with the Myers-Shields trade, the Twins need to wait until the following happens: Buxton and Sano are called up and both disappoint for a couple seasons. One is barely above replacement level and the other is only league-average. However, Arcia blossoms late and becomes a borderline MVP candidate. Most of the lineup is in an okay place, and they really just need the young guys to continue to take steps forward. On the pitching side, basically every starter fails - Meyer (control), May (just bad), Berrios (TJ) and Stewart (shoulder) all fail as starters, and the rotation is Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson and two questions marks. However, the bullpen is top-notch with 3-4 pitchers regularly hitting 100. If something like that plays out, THEN they could consider trading Nick Gordon for the last two years of Jose Fernandez.
  22. markos
    I don't necessarily think that the Twins need to mimic the Pirates and become GB-centric - other teams (Royals, Rays, Orioles) have had good success matching pitching staffs with flyball tendencies with rangy outfield defenses. That being said, the Twins definitely need to find some kind of run-prevention synergy with the team. Right now, they have a flyball staff (5th highest flyball rate in the league) but have matched that with one of the worst outfield defenses. It may be easier to upgrade the outfield defense and stick with their flyball pitchers (Hughes, Perkins, Fien, et al) than attempt to turnover the pitching staff.
  23. markos
    I think Plouffe will have some interest this offseason. Looking at last offseason, the Angels traded away Peter Bourjos and a decent minor leaguer for David Freese and a bullpen arm. Though Plouffe has never matched the offensive peak that Freese had back in 2012, he will be younger, have more years of team control, is a better defender and is coming off a much better season than Freese in 2013. Similarly, last offseason the Diamonbacks essentially gave up Tyler Skaggs and Adam Eaton for Mark Trumbo and some minor pieces. Plouffe doesn't have the power numbers of Trumbo, but overall they have similar value. Maybe Plouffe isn't worth both Skaggs AND Eaton, but one could argue he is at least work either Skaggs OR Eaton. Given these two examples, it seems likely that Plouffe could fetch a Bourjos/Eaton type outfielder. Assuming that Santana will play SS next year and Escobar can cover 3B until Sano arrives, I think trading Plouffe is the best option - he has the most value at a position where the team has the depth to replace him. On the other hand, there is a decent amount of FA depth at 3B this year: Headley, Aramis Ramirez, Hanley Ramirez, Sandoval. That may depress the market.
  24. markos
    I did some rather crude back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to determine how effective the improvements would be if the Twins could improve to league average Defensive Efficiency (.705). It turns out it would prevent roughly 80 hits. Similarly, improving the strikeout rate to league average (20%) would prevent roughly 65 hits. Given the crude nature of my method, I'm going to assume that the difference between the two is essentially a wash. If we all agree that the main culprit for the poor defense has been the outfielders, it is probably true that acquiring two above-average outfield defenders to improve defense is easier and cheaper (either in trades or via free agency) than acquiring two (or more) starting pitchers with above-average strikeout rates. I hope they attempt to improve in both areas of run prevention, but I also hope that they recognize that improving the defense (especially in the outfield) is probably lower hanging fruit right now.
  25. markos
    Even though I think that Rob Antony is being groomed for the job, it wouldn't be a complete shock if they decided to bring in someone outside the organization. I say this because I feel like Antony made enough questionable moves when he temporarily took over for Terry Ryan this spring that it may cause them to look for someone else. And I don't know who else in the front office is GM material other than Antony. Maybe Radcliff? Anyway, I feel like there is a better chance of them going outside the organization today than there was a year ago. Can anyone else think of internal candidates besides Radcliff and Antony?
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