markos

Personally, I'm more concerned about Meyer and Stewart's bum shoulders than I am with Thorpe's bum elbow. It is still unfortunate, but even the worst-case has a high rate of recovery. Shoulder injuries can quickly end careers.

While offensive stats are not necessarily "regressed", it should be pointed out that offensive stats are heavily adjusted when they are added into the WAR calculations. They are adjusted for run environment, stadium and position (and probably other things). This is done so that players on different teams, positions and leagues can be directly compared, as well as across multiple seasons. Using your example, if Mauer had the exact same offensive counting stats in 2014 that he had in 2009, he would actually be credited for a lot more offensive value because he plays in a much tougher ballpark and a lower run-scoring environment. On the other hand, he will be docked value because he plays 1B instead of C.

I'm not sure that the problem you have identified is as bad as it sounds. UZR splits every batted ball into a bucket based on location and some simple hit trajectory/speed factors. These buckets aren't terribly granular. Each bucket is assigned a certain run value based on the historical probability of a hit or out being recorded. For each play UZR does represent what happens in the field in the sense that it records whether or not an out was made and assigns runs (positively or negatively) accordingly. The "problem" is that UZR doesn't necessarily capture the context of the play to dynamically adjust the value of the play due to circumstances. For example, you can imagine that due to positioning (ex. playing deep and shifting for a power hitter), an outfielder makes a very easy catch on a ball that UZR determined was very difficult historically. This is where the disconnect happens between the UZR rating and "what happened on the field", and why a player can have a plus UZR but not play very good defense. I don't think this is a huge deal, because in many ways this is similar to what happens in offense. A batter gets credit for a hit regardless if the hit was a weak grounder that squeaked through the infield or if it was a solid line drive. So as long as the fielder is making plays that have traditionally been difficult, then that seems valuable to me. Overall, I think UZR is okay. Not great, but okay. I'm very excited and optimistic about the Trackman features that they will be rolling out soon. That should provide enough data to answer some of these fielding questions much more conclusively. One thing that WAR is missing is the quality of the competition. A home run hit off of Clayton Kershaw in Dodger Stadium seems like it should be much more valuable that a homer off of 2013 Phil Hughes in Yankee Stadium. I'm not sure if there is a reasonable way to include that information, but I think it would be important.

Catching up on Alex Meyer from the past few weeks. 7/29 5 inning start against Lehigh Valley. He was allowed to throw 96 pitches, which was good. However, the innings weren't great as he gave up 5 walks. Overall he was able to limit the damage, as he only allowed a single run. Rounding out the statline, he also managed 5 strikeouts. All in all, not a great start, but it is nice to see Meyer cross the 90 pitch boundry again. 8/3 Arguably one of Meyer's best starts of the season. He only threw 91 pitches over 5 2/3 innings, but for the most part they were very good innings. He ended up with 8 strikeouts and only 3 walks and 2 runs. This is the first time he has managed to have back-to-back 90+ pitch starts since April 28 and May 4. 8/9 Wheels kind of fell off a little bit in this start. Meyer was pulled after 2 innings after a very long (40 pitch) 2nd inning. That inning was fairly terrible, as the first 6 batters all reach on 2 doubles, 3 singles and a walk. Hopefully it was just an unlucky inning as 4 or the 5 hits in that inning were ground balls. Meyer got out of the inning by striking out 3 of the next 4 batters. He threw 64 pitches.

Game updates for Meyer: 7/8 6 inning start for Meyer. He gave up only 2 runs and 4 hits, but allowed 4 walks again. He racked up 10 strikeouts. Overall, he threw 96 pitches, which is the most he's thrown since April. 7/18 Another 6 inning start. This time he have up 3 hits, 1 run and 4 walks. Only 4 strikeouts this time, and he threw 88 pitches. 7/23 6 innings again, but this time they were all shutout innings. He only gave up 5 hits and no walks, and added 8 strikeouts. Made it through the 6 innings in only 86 pitches. Recently, Parker Hageman wrote a good piece arguing that Meyer is ready for the promotion to the big leagues. http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/alex-meyers-time-is-here-r2898 A month ago there was a decent argument that he needed more time. At that point, Meyer wasn't allowed to throw more than 80 pitches in a game and was averaging less than 4 innings per start. I doubt any big league manager wants a starting pitcher brought up with such a short leash. However, the past 5 starts have each gone 6 innings, and he has stretched his pitch count back up to the 90s. Finally, there were a few more prospect lists that were released since my last update: Keith Law (ESPN): #42 (#20 pitcher) MLB Pipeline (mlb.com): #31 (#17 pitcher)

This is the crazy part to me. $1.5M is practically a rounding error for a major league club, and Houston has been running some of the lowest payrolls in baseball the past few years. Nix and Aiken for $6.5M total was fine, but $8.0M was too much. Does anyone know if Aiken could insure himself for the next year? I know that some major league pitchers have done that prior to free agency.

From the Reds, what do you think of Ben Lively? He seems intriguing. From the Cardinals, what about Jon Jay? Two years of control left after 2014. Not a perfect fit, but at the moment there are two outfield positions open for 2014 (assuming Willingham and Fuld are gone). Decent bridge until Buxton is ready. Cardinals have a glut of outfielders, so they may be willing to dump him.

Is independent ball still an option? I recall players (specifically Matt Harrington) who didn't sign going to play for independent teams back in the early 2000s. They played one year and then were back in the draft.

There has been a lot of important news for Alex Meyer since my last update. First, Meyer has pitched in three games: 6/23 Another marginal start for Meyer. He wasn’t able to finish the 4th inning, lasting only 3 ⅔ innings. He gave up 4 runs on 7 hits, 2 home runs and 2 walks. And he only had 3 strikeouts. 6/28 A good start for Meyer. He pitched 6 innings and only gave up 3 hits and 1 run on a solo homer. He allowed only a single walk, he had 3 strikeouts, but he managed to be very efficient as he needed only 77 pitches to get through 6 innings. 7/3 Another good start for Meyer. Again he pitched 6 innings and only gave up 3 hits and 1 run. This time he allowed 4 walks but 7 strikeouts. He was allowed to throw 86 pitches. This is the first time he has cracked 86 pitches since May 22, and the first time he has managed back-to-back 6 inning starts since April 23 & 28. Second, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America released mid-season top-50 prospect lists. Meyer was ranked on both lists: Baseball Prospectus: #12 (#6 pitcher) Baseball America: #32 (#16 pitcher) Third, Meyer was named as the replacement for Trevor May in the Future's Game at Target Field on July 13th. He starts tonight for Rochester, so he will be right on schedule for that game. It should be fun to see if he will air it out and hit triple-digits for the game. Though this isn't how many people expected to see Meyer first reach Target Field, it will still be fun to see him pitch on the big stage. Hopefully he will be a permanent fixture soon.

Ouch is right. Poor guy. I'm kind of surprised that elbow and shoulder MRIs aren't part of the standard pre-draft medicals.

Assuming this is only temporary until Plouffe or Nunez come off the DL (or until Santana is deemed healthy), what impact will this have on his service time calculations going forward?

This was my speculation two weeks ago: Depending on how much you buy into the 120-pitch 'test' that Trevor May underwent as part of his development, it is possible that Meyer underwent a similar 'test' is late April, and that he failed that test. It certainly appears that his arm has not responded very well and that the Twins have severely reduced his pitch limit since then. This is similar to last season, where Meyer had 3 consecutive high-ish pitch count starts in a row, after which he as shutdown for 2 months due to a shoulder issue.

Catching up on the recent Alex Meyer starts... 6/13 Another rough start for Meyer. He only pitched two innings and gave up 5 hits, 3 runs, 2 walks and only 1 strikeout. He was pulled after 55 pitches. 6/18 Again with a short leash, Meyer was pulled after 78 pitches. He only made it through 3 innings, but this time he was much more effective. He only gave up 2 hits, no runs, 2 walks and 4 strikeouts.

The strange thing about his current pitch limit is that he didn't have one in late April. He had three consecutive starts in late-April to early-May where his pitch counts were 100, 100 and 92. This ~80 limit didn't start until mid-May.

Quick update on the latest two Meyer starts from the past week. 6/2 Last Monday, Meyer had another so-so start. In this start against the Gwinnett Braves, he pitched only 5 innings. The first 4 innings went by smoothly, but he kind of fell of the rails in the 5th, giving up 3 hits including a double and a homer, and he hit a batter. Overall, he ended up giving up 4 runs, 7 hits, 1 walk and 1 HBP. He did have 5 strikeouts. He was pulled after 78 pitches. 6/7 Saturday Meyer was on his game. In a rematch of his Monday start again Gwinnett, he pitched 6 shutout innings, giving up only 2 hits and a single walk. He struck out 8. He was pulled after the 6th inning after throwing 81 pitches. Is Meyer going to be called up soon? My guess is no. I am guessing that the Twins front office will want to see him get back to the 100 pitch per start range before they send him up to the big leagues. This is purely speculation on my part, but I think Meyer may have had an undisclosed issue this spring. The basis for my speculation is as follows: - 4/23 and 4/28: Meyer pitched back-to-back scoreless outing with 11 Ks and reaching 100 pitches in both games. - 5/4 and 5/10: Meyer had back-to-back poor starts, giving up 9 runs in 9 innings, while walking 6, striking out only 7, and giving up 12 hits. - Since that 5/4 start, Meyer's pitch limit has been reduced to roughly 80. There have been several times where he has been removed from games despite being very effective and a relatively low pitch-count (like the game this past Saturday). Again, this is all speculation, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins noticed some slight reduction in stuff in the early-May time frame. Or perhaps Meyer himself was complaining about something as benign as dead-arm that many pitchers deal with early in the season. Regardless, it appears that the Twins have pulled back the reins on Meyer for the time being. The cause does not appear to be serious, as it hasn't required him to miss any starts. However, I don't think he will called up until he reaches the 100 pitch plateau again. As a comparison, Trevor May has averaged 98 pitches-per-game since May 1st. Also of note: Meyer and May are #1 & #2 in the International League in K%.

I like Marshall and Reetz, and in general I think some more position players with upside would be good.

Adams off the board.

Jacob Gatewood Spencer Adams

Sounds like Seattle has already announced that Jackson will be moving to the outfield right away.

I agree. BPA in draft. However, I do think it is prudent for them to target bats by other avenues this year. If they end up trading veterans (Willingham, Suzuki, Correia), I hope they target position players rather than target more pitching like they have been for the last two years. The Span, Revere, Butera, Doumit, Morneau and Liriano trades yielded 7 pitchers and 2 hitters.

My quick, back-of-the-envelope calculations makes it seem like the Twins would need to save $1.4 million from their later picks in order to not lose their #1 pick next year. MN Total Pool: $7.52M #5 pick allocation: $3.85M Remaining picks: $3.67M $6.00M - $3.85M ------------- $2.14M additional needed to sign Rodon. They can go an addition $750K without losing a pick. $2.14M - $0.75M ------------- $1.39M The amount they need to save on their remaining 9 picks. The is roughly 40% of their pool dedicated to those picks.

With the (most likely purely posturing) rumors that Jackson, Aiken and Rodon are all slipping because they are demanding top-2 money, would anyone spend the $6 Million to sign one if they dropped to the Twins, but then have spend the rest of the draft picking cheap players? Personally, I don't think that the gap between those three players and the next tier (Newcomb, Touissant, et. al ) is large enough to justify that kind of move. Does anyone feel differently?

It has been a dedicated 2 year effort, but that's what happens when you prioritize pitching for an extended period of time. Here are the young-ish pitchers they have acquired since the 2012 draft (in roughly chronological order): Berrios Bard Melotakis Chargois P. Hernandez Sulbaran Meyer May Worley Stewart Eades Gonsalves Slegers K. Johnson Gilmartin Position players in the same time period: Buxton Adam Walker Eduardo Escobar Stuart Turner Brian Navarreto Mitch Garver Alex Presley

I'm not sure why this is misleading. I was trying to point out that a player can be very valuable at 3B without having the standard 3B offensive profile - the 25+ HR, .800+ OPS in the Longoria/Beltre/Zimmerman mold. Machado's was incredibly valuable even though he didn't hit like a typical 3B. Yes, everyone is projecting even greater offensive production from him going forward because he is so young, but his age is completely independent of his 2013 value.

Gordon's bat doesn't necessarily have to profile at 3B in order for him to be valuable at 3B. Here are three batting lines that don't fit the standard 3B profile (two from last year, one from Twins history). a) .280, 14 HR, .746 OPS, 102 OPS+ .267, 10 HR, .706 OPS, 82 OPS+ c) .290, 4 HR, .725 OPS, 90 OPS+ a = Manny Machado (6.4 bWAR) b = Nolan Arenado (3.9 bWAR) c = Nick Punto 2006 (3.7 bWAR) All of these players provided significantly above-average value due to their defense. Gordon's defensive profile at SS - average to above-average fielding, plus-plus arm - would make him an ELITE 3B. Most people here are concerned that he will be moved off of SS for some reason. It depends on the reason, but if it ends up being range related, he still has the potential to provide well above-average defense at 3B. And at that point he still doesn't need to hit much to be valuable.