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The BP Prospect Staff has selected a player with the "Top Tool" in various scouting categories, as well as listing 2-6 other prospects that were also considered. Though no Twin prospect won any of these categories, several of them were mentioned in the "Others Considered" discussions. These articles are behind the BP paywall, so those with subscriptions can find them here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/index.php?column=225 The last two articles focused on pitching, and 3 Twins pitching prospects were mentioned. Though the discussion is very brief, it is fun (and frankly a new experience) to see Twins pitchers praised for their elite stuff. Fastball - Alex Meyer "Gray, Giolito, and Meyer can all pump mid-90s gas while regularly touching 97-98 mph throughout their starts" Slider - Kohl Stewart "Stewart has some projection remaining in his slider, but he routinely fires better-than-plus present sliders, featuring his own mid-80s velocity and slightly less sharp break than Stroman. Stewart could still refine the pitch further and has a chance to top this list in the future." Changeup - Lewis Thorpe "Numerous pitchers enter the discussion when looking for potential plus-plus changeups, including young international signings like Miguel Almonte and Lewis Thorpe, both of whom have a chance to dominate hitters with the pitch."

This is a big deal for me. It seems like everyone is working hard to figure out this part of the game, and this is another step forward.

Yep. Some years it is sucks to be stuck at #5 when there are only a few great options in a draft. This does not appear to be one of those years. Hopefully everyone stays healthy and effective so that the Twins have multiple high-upside options at #5.

The folks at Baseball Prospectus have released a new method for calculating value of catcher pitch framing. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22934 It seems very thorough, as it adjusts for all of the following factors: 1) They created multiple unique ball-strike probability maps to account for a number of different factors: each separate ball-strike count, 5 separate pitch types: fastball, curveball, slider, offspeed and knuckleball, batter height and handedness, and pitcher handedness. 2) Run values based on specific ball-strike count. For example, getting a strike call on a 3-2 pitch is much more valuable than on a 3-0 pitch. 3) Adjusted for pitchers. So less value for catching a good control pitcher like Kyle Lohse than a wild pitcher like Edwin Jackson. 4) Adjusted for umpires. The also created a similar model for passed-balls and wild-pitches to determine values for blocking pitches.

I dug around a little bit, and the following position players all had TJ: Mike Aviles Dustin Ackley Shin-Soo Choo Zach Cozart Carl Crawford Matt Holliday Cesar Izturis Kelly Johnson Xavier Nady Luke Scott Top-100-ish Prospects: Hak-Ju Lee Rymer Liriano

It seems like every draft candidate or prospect in the minors gets overrated defensively (some more than others), and their defensive ability (if they do have it) can deteriorate quickly. As just one example, are some of the defensive quote about Arcia from Baseball Prospectus over the past few years: 2011: He's a good athlete for his size and has good outfield instincts. 2012: He's not special in the outfield, but hardly a liability 2013: arm is at least solid-average; will play in right field. Good athlete for his size, but lacks average run; limited to a corner spot Based on my observations (and backed by some of the defensive metrics), it turns out that Arcia was one of the worst defensive outfielders in all of baseball last season. Also, consider the players that the Twins selected to play shortstop over the past few years - Dozier, Plouffe, Nishioka. It became very apparent very quickly that they were unable to handle the position. Long story short, I drop every prospect at least a step from the scouting reports. Shortstop projected to be average? Then I think he is probably terrible and not really a shortstop. Plus centerfielder? Hopefully will be average in the majors. For me, the kiss of death for a prospect defensively is "he should be able to handle/stick at the position." Regarding Turner defensively, I'm starting to think of Billy Hamilton. Hamilton also started off as a shortstop, but despite world-class speed, has had to move to the outfield. If there are any doubts about Turner staying at shortstop, that is a huge red flag for me.

My top 5: 1) Correa // super young for draft class. raked. projected to stay at short. 2) Zunino // I had visions of the next Buster Posey 3) Appel 4) Gausman 5) Buxton // old for draft class. questions about competition and polish. I thought he had the highest bust potential. I'm glad I was wrong, though I still think Correa will be a stud.

I put together a table of the recent top HS pitchers, and how they progressed through the minors. (Note: Year 1 is the first full season, so if the pitcher was drafted in 2007, Year 1 is 2008.) [TABLE] [/TD] Draft Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Madison Bumgarner[TD=align: right]2007 A A+ - AA - MLB AAA - MLB MLB [/TD] Jarrod Parker[TD=align: right]2007 A A+ - AA Injury AA - MLB AAA - MLB Matt Hobgood[TD=align: right]2009[/TD] A Rk - A-/Injury Injury A - A+ [/TD] Zack Wheeler[TD=align: right]2009 A A+ AA - AAA AAA - MLB [/TD] Jacob Turner[TD=align: right]2009 A - A+ AA - AAA - MLB A+ - AAA - MLB AAA - MLB [/TD] Tyler Matzek[TD=align: right]2009 A A - A+ A+ AA [/TD] Matt Purke[TD=align: right]2009 Injury Injury A / Injury A - A+ [/TD] Shelby Miller[TD=align: right]2009 A A+ - AA AAA - MLB MLB [/TD] Jameson Taillon[TD=align: right]2010 A A+ - AA AA - AAA [/TD] Dylan Bundy[TD=align: right]2011 A - A+ - AA - MLB Injury [/TD] Archie Bradley[TD=align: right]2011 A A+ - AA [/TD] Jose Fernandez[TD=align: right]2011 A - A+ MLB [/TD] Taylor Guerrieri[TD=align: right]2011 A- A / Injury [/TD] Robert Stephenson[TD=align: right]2011 RK - A A - A+ - AA [/TD] [TD] [/TABLE] I expect this progression for Stewart: 2014 - Entire season at Cedar Rapids 2015 - Start season at Ft. Myer, promoted to New Britain. 2016 - Start season at Rochester, promoted to majors. 2017 - Start season with Twins. I think 2016 is the "best-case scenario" for Stewart reaching the majors. I don't think anyone is expecting him to force a rapid promotion like Bundy did, and I don't see the Twins aggressively promoting him like SF did with Bumgarner or Detroit did with Turner. If he hasn't reached the majors by year 5 (2018), that has to be a complete disappointment. Almost every (non-injured) pitcher on this list is definitely in line to reach the majors in 4 years - many of them much sooner. The only exception is Tyler Matzek, who only reached AA by year 4.

Regarding the “a good five years away from the majors.” quote from Law, there is this little tidbit from Baseball America back in October: Closest To The Majors High School Players 1. Kohl Stewart, rhp, Twins (1) 2. Tyler Danish, rhp, White Sox (2) 3. Hunter Harvey, rhp, Orioles (1) 4. Austin Meadows, of, Pirates (1) 5. Clint Frazier, of, Indians (1) http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2013-draft-report-cards-first-impressions-of-the-draft-classes/ I think the take home message here is that no one knows how quickly Stewart is going to progress.

A few months back I asked a similar question to some draft expert (I think it was Jim Callis, but I no longer remember exactly who. The article/expert escape me, and I haven't been able to dig it up) The article was about HS pitchers for the upcoming draft. I specifically asked which HS pitchers in the 2014 draft would perform as well as or better than Thorpe did this past year. He thought only two would be better (Holmes and Kolek). Now, this doesn't mean that he thought Thorpe is the 3rd best HS pitcher because they way I phrased the question it didn't take into account future projection (ex. a HS pitcher with amazing stuff but no command may be drafted higher based on hopes and dreams). It was focused more on his current stuff and polish. However, my takeaway was that Thorpe would be considered one of the better HS pitchers in this draft - definitely a 1st round pick, and maybe even taken in the top half.

That brings up an interesting question: Would you trade Sano for any of the four SS that BP ranked ahead of Sano? My answers... Baez? Yes. Correa? Yes. Lindor? Leaning toward no. Russell? No. I feel like Baez and Correa will provide 90% of Sano's offense while being significantly better defensively, either if they stay at SS or if they have to move to 3B or 2B. Lindor needs to be a stud defensively, and I'm hesitant to bank on that right now. Russell isn't at the same level as Baez or Correa offensively, and is reportedly good but not great defensively. That seems too risky to me.

I agree with you that Rosario has been frequently scouted because he has been teamed up with Sano for most of his career. I was trying to make the distinction that the AFL was a rare opportunity for scouts to see Rosario play 2B day-in and day-out for several weeks. I'm speculating that it is a much better format for determining how he's adjusted to a new defensive position, rather than just seeing a random game or series here or there.

I think MLB.com had him ranked in the 60s at the end of the season also. I wonder how much his mediocre showing at the AFL hurt his ranking. In particular, it was probably the first time that a lot of scouts were able to see him play 2B regularly. When MLB.com released their top-10 2B, I recall Callis mentioning that he doesn't think Rosario sticks at 2B. Hopefully Rosario will be able to take about 1000 grounders a day while he is serving his suspension.

Interesting contrast with the MLB.com list from last week. Rosario was rated #8 for 2B, and didn't crack the top-100 list, whereas BP has him #3 for 2B and #60 overall. That is quite the difference of opinion. I'm curious how other sites (BA, Sickels, Law, etc) rank him.

Pinto is a noteworthy omission. I'm curious why they are down on him. It must be age or defense related? Additionally, I wonder how much this reflects how the Twins feel about Pinto, if BA weights their ranking based on organizational opinion as Brad suggested. Perhaps the Twins aren't nearly as high on Pinto as I thought.

This. Jack Morris is already memorialized in the Hall of Fame for having one of the greatest World Series pitching performances in one of the greatest World Series games in one of the greatest World Series in baseball history. He was not one of the greatest pitchers of all time. So he is already in the Hall for exactly the reason that he should be.

At the very least, Gilmartin has solid bullpen potential. Lefties against Gilmartin the past two seasons: 2013 - .219/.252/.383 2012 - .185/.217/.289 Even in 2013 when he was terrible overall and supposedly injured, he shut down lefties.

Does the signing of Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey change the opinion of anyone about when Meyer will debut with the Twins? Now I'm thinking he may be a September call up. Now there is a lot of time before opening day, and the roster can be adjusted quite a bit. However, given its current state I think that the Twins's "best case" scenario for the starting rotation is for one of Deduno/Diamond/Worley will be healthy and effective, and lock down the 5th starter spot out of spring training. That means that both Gibson and Meyer will be in AAA. Assuming that Correia will be traded sometime in July, Gibson will take his place, and there won't be a spot for Meyer until the rosters expand in September. Injuries or terrible pitching may create earlier opportunities, but now I think Meyer's ETA is September. Is everyone else sticking with their original guesses, or have the recent signings also changed your minds?

Yeah. Kepler and Santana were both strange inclusions so high on the list.

There is a thorough autopsy of the Bill Smith era posted on Baseball Prospectus today. It is a fantastic article, and I highly recommend everyone to read it. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22388 I don't necessarily think that every issue raised in the article should be leveled solely at Bill Smith, but it is quite damning to see every bad decision laid out in detail. You may need a stiff drink to get through it.

Interesting comparison: From 2011-2012 Player A (25 and 26 seasons): 858 PA, .225/.279/.437, 91 OPS+, 28% K, 6% BB Player B (26 and 27 seasons): 834 PA, .228/.288/.452, 96 OPS+, 31% K, 7% BB Player A is Arencibia and Player B is Saltalamacchia. Now in 2013, Saltalamacchia had a career year while Arencibia was terrible, so it does make some sense that Salty is getting a multi-year deal while Arencibia is available for peanuts.

I would prefer him (assuming he is reasonable cheap) backing up Pinto over a expensive, long-term deal for Saltalamacchia.

I like the Hughes deal way better than Kazmir. I've been hoping the Twins would avoid him since the beginning of the offseason, mostly because of his easy competition. For example: Scott Kazmir ERA vs MIN, MIA, NYM (7 starts): 1.05 Scott Kazmir vs Others (22 starts): 5.17 After signing with the Twins, he won't have the chance to start against them 5 times.

In 2012 most of his homeruns were pulled: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2012_76&type=pitcher Of the 24 HR he gave up to RH hitters (6.1% of PAs), 20 were pulled to LF. In 2013, the 11 RH HRs he gave up (3.9% of PAs), it was more of a 50-50 split - 6 to LF and 5 to RF. I'm not sure what to make of the 2012-2013 difference. It could just be sample size issues. I did hear that he added slider to his repertoire in 2013. Maybe that allowed him to be more effective at suppressing RH pull HRs.

The conventional wisdom that Hughes has struggled because of Yankee Stadium's short right porch is not correct. For his career (both at home and on the road), Hughes has given up home runs at a higher rate to right-handed hitters than to lefties (overall, 4.6% to RH, 4.1% to LH). His career opponent SLG has similar reverse splits (.438 for RH, .431 for LH). I don't think that moving to Target Field will be the panacea for Hughes that people are expecting. Yes, it should provide some improvement; however, it doesn't suppress RH pull power very much, and RH batters have always hit Hughes well. Additionally, pitching in front of a Willingham, Presley, Arcia outfield could be very, very ugly. I think expecting a sub-4.00 ERA is very optimistic.