markos

Exciting! Before things get too crazy this week, I want to thank everyone for contributing to an awesome thread. It has been a great ride, with lots of smart, intense, yet civil discussion about all the top draft prospects. I feel like I've learned a lot, and this thread has always been my go-to place to find the latest draft updates. My board right now. Aiken > Rodon > Gordon > Jackson > Kolek > Nola > Touki > Holmes I would be happy with anyone on this list.

I would definitely trade Duensing; I might trade Fien. I would also argue that both are better than the player the Pirates gave up. Is this anything less than a cost-cutting move from the Marlins? I'm so glad I'm not a Marlins fan.

I looked back at how other top HS pitchers performed at low-A the year after they were drafted. Stewart's K rate is currently at 18.1%. Since 2007, there have been only 3 HS pitchers (out of 20) that have had a lower K rate: Matt Hobgood (2007), Nick Travieso (2012) and Trey Ball (2013). The following pitchers all had K rates above 25%: Madison Bumgarner, 30% Zack Wheeler, 27% Shelby Miller, 32% Jameson Taillon, 25% Dylan Bundy, 40% Archie Bradley, 26% Jose Fernandez, 34% Lucas Sims, 28% Hunter Harvey, 30% As others have pointed out, prospect experts at both Baseball Prospectus and ESPN have recently talked about Stewart, and no one has made any mention of the low strikeout rate. In fact, they all had very positive things to say about his control so far. I'm not worried... yet.

I have seen some scouts give him a future power grade of 55 to go with 50 hit. That would project him hitting .260-.280 with 15-20 HRs and lots of doubles. If he walks enough, his OPS is between .750 and .800. Combined with above-average defense at SS, and he is a 4-6 Win player. If all that pans out, then I think his upside is Jimmy Rollins with a little less speed, which is a pretty dang good player. Granted there are a lot of hopes and dreams involved with that projection, but then again every HS kid is wrapped in hopes and dreams right now.

There has been some buzz that teams are talking themselves out of Kolek. My guess is that he is the one that would be available.

All the top players have ghosts from past drafts that haunt them. Rodon --> Andrew Miller Aiken --> Tyler Matzek Kolek --> Colt Griffin Gordon --> Tim Beckham Jackson --> Josh Vitters You don't trust the "Toolsy" label, which is perfectly reasonable. They are risky, as "Toolsy" often means "athletic but not very good at baseball yet". For me, I don't trust HS players who are already relegated to corner outfield positions. That is why Jackson scares me. He is going to need to hit really, really well in order to be valuable at a corner spot. And if he ends up being a butcher in the outfield, that puts even more pressure on his bat.

Two starts to catch up on. 5/22 Meyer pitched into the 6th inning. He gave up only 1 run, 6 hits, struck out 5 and issued only 2 walks. This was the first game he had issued less that 3 walks since his 2nd start of the year. He was pulled in the 6th inning with the bases loaded after allowing 4 straight batters to reach base, including two via walks. Fortunately, the bullpen was able to get out of the inning with no further damage. He ended up throwing 88 pitches. 5/28 Meyer pitched a very solid game last night. He completed 6 innings, throwing 85 pitches. He gave up 2 runs (only 1 earned) on 3 hits and 3 walks, and was able to strike out 8 batters. This is basically the timeframe last year when Meyer was shut down. They have limited his workload (innings and pitches) a bit this year compared to last season - averaging 5.1 IP & 85.2 pitches this year versus 5.4 IP & 90.6 pitches last year. Hopefully he will continue to be healthy going forward.

This is a really important point. Last year Stephen Drew, Yunel Escobar, Didi Gregorius and Zack Cozart all had roughly the same batting average (.253, .256, .252, .254). However, their wRC+ were wildly different (109, 100, 91, 79). Drew walked and hit for average power. Escobar walked and hit for a little power in a bad ballpark (TB). Gregorius walked and hit for a little power in a really good ballpark (Arz). Cozart didn't walk and hit for a little power in a really good ballpark (Cin). Just saying that someone has a "50 hit tool" seems incredibly inadequate when trying to capture a player's hitting abilities. At a time when we know so much about the various factors that capture a batter's value, it is bizarre that, more often than not, his hitting talent is still bundled up as a single number. Regarding Gordon (and equally so with Jackson), I'd really like to know the following: 1) How good is his strikezone judgement? 2) Can he recognize and lay off tough pitches? 3) Can he make adjustments during at bats as well as between at bats, and from game to game? 4) How much does he expand his strike zone with 2 strikes? 5) What is his batting approach? Does he just react and swing at the first decent pitch, or does he wait for "his pitch" early in the count? 7) How much power can he generate? What is the hit velocity when he hits the ball? 8) How often does he pop up?

I think this strength of this draft is its depth, rather than the high end talent. Jim Callis stated last week that Alex Jackson and Nick Gordon (the top two HS position players) would have slid in at #7 (behind Austin Meadows) and #9 (ahead of Reese McGuire) respectively. Also, I read earlier that the top talent in this year's draft (Rodon, Kolek and Aiken) all grade out slightly behind the big 3 from last year (Gray, Appel and Bryant).

Does Kolek scare anyone else? I like big-time velocity as much as the next guy, but if his command and secondary pitches don't develop he is just a bullpen arm at best.

I'm pretty sure you can't draw that conclusion just by comparing WAR. WAR is a nice way to compare two players in a context neutral setting, but it tells us very little about how their performance actually matters to a particular team, specifically when the two players play different positions. Myers plays RF and produced 2.5 fWAR. David Lough and Justin Maxwell platooned in RF for basically the same games that Myers was up, and they combined for 3.1 fWAR. So the Royals actually would have been slightly worse off having Myers in the outfield last year. Shields, on the other hand, made 34 starts and pitched 228 2/3 innings. These starts and innings would have had to been replaced by somebody, and it seems likely that somebody would have been more Luis Mendoza (who pitched 94 innings with a -1.0 bWAR anyway in 2013) and some pitcher(s) worst than Mendoza. So it seems very likely that Shields was worth every bit of his 4.1 bWAR, and I would even venture to say that he was probably worth more since his actual replacement would probably have been well below "replacement level". So swapping out Myers for Shields is at least a 4 win difference, and probably closer to 5 or 6 wins.

I'm signed up. I've also been looking to learn R and improve my SQL. This seems like a fun way to do it.

This is exactly how I feel - I don't hate the pick but would prefer someone else. Also, I'm bookmarking that link. Thanks for sharing.

For pitchers who lack the ability to get hitters swing and miss on pitches in the zone, there will always be some tradeoff between strikeouts and walks. I'm sure that every pitcher wants to strike out as many batters as possible. However, for many pitchers increasing strikeouts means throwing more balls out of the strike zone, which often leads to more walks as well. Overall, the value of strikeouts is closely tied to the corresponding walk rate. If a pitcher's K/BB ratio is too low, then the benefit of preventing balls in play via strikeouts is outweighed by the extra men on base via walks. A rough back-of-the-envelope calculation makes me think that the cutoff is somewhere between 1.5 and 2.0 K/BB. In certain cases, increasing that ratio may be more valuable than just focusing on increasing strikeouts, which for many pitchers will also increase the number of walks. Example: Sam Deduno has a K% of 18% and a BB% of 9%. His K/BB is 2.0 - or in other words, 33% of the non-BIP (ball in play) PAs end up on base. Now let's say that through some change he is able to drop his BB% down to 5%, but at the expense of dropping his K% down to 15%. Now his K/BB ratio is 3.0, so only 25% of the non-BIP PAs end up on base. However, the tradeoff is that he is now allowing more balls in play. Is that tradeoff worth it? Maybe. I would have to figure out the run expectancy in both scenarios to know for sure. But it certainly seems reasonable that he may be a more effective as a significantly lower walk, slightly lower strikeout pitcher.

Good point about Rollins. The comp was focused on the normal Rollins seasons (10-20 HR, 30+ SB), not his 2006-2007 peak where he was hitting 25+ HRs with 40+ SB. I haven't seen anyone project Gordon with that kind of power. Though I don't think anyone projected Rollins to have that kind of power either.

Nice writeup from John Sickels about Meyer: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/5/20/5653102/prospect-of-the-day-alex-meyer-rhp-minnesota-twins Here is the wrap up quote: "Meyer has the stuff to be a number one starter, but enough doubt remains about his command for us to project him more as a number two or strong three. The Twins usually promote their prospects slowly and Meyer hasn't consistently dominated at Rochester to the extent that would force their hand ahead of schedule. That said, we will most likely see him later this year, and he certainly has the natural ability to find immediate success once that happens." Please read the whole thing.

Quick overview of Gordon. Best asset - Legitimate shortstop. Ceiling - League average offense, plus baserunning, plus defense at SS. Think Jimmy Rollins. Floor - Hit and power tools don't develop. Ends up as a no-hit utility infielder. Key Risk(s) - Will the bat/approach develop? It will be the difference between him becoming a starter or a backup. Will any power develop? Difference between him becoming an All Star or just a guy. Non-zero risk that he won't stick at short, but that is less of a risk than the questions about his bat. Wildcard - Hit 90+ with a decent curve. May be able to salvage career as a bullpen arm if everything else goes to hell.

I disagree with this statement, and I think the current state of the league backs me up. Looking at the pitching staffs for those 8 teams (roughly 40 starters), only 3 pitchers are top-10 picks still on the team that drafted them: Verlander, Price, and Kershaw. Just as many aces were acquired via savvy trades: Scherzer, Sanchez, Wainwright. There a many ways to create an excellent and deep pitching staff. The Rays have their anchor in Price, but then they filled the rest of their rotation by either developing HS pitchers drafted in the 4th round or later, or by acquiring young, high-end pitcher in trades. The Cardinals used a mixture of trades (Wainwright), HS picks (Miller) and college arms (Wacha, Lynn, Kelly). The A's almost exclusively draft college arms, and supplement with smart free agent signings and good trades. The Tigers have Verlander and Porcello whom they developed in house, but then made two very smart trades to acquire Scherzer and Sanchez. The Braves mostly draft college pitchers, plus some really good international and free agent signings. The Rays have had 20 1st round picks since the new management took over in 2006. They have drafted only 6 pitchers, of which 2 were high school pitchers. The Cardinals have had 17 picks in the same time frame (highest #13). They have drafted 10 pitchers, but only 3 from high school. The Twins do not need to gamble on the highest-upside pitcher every year in order to build a competitive staff. They need to continue to acquire high-end talent via trades whenever a good opportunity presents itself, and they need to get better at developing what talent they do have in the system.

The floor of every HS player is scary. Christopher Crawford just reviewed some of the top draft prospects of the past 10 years. http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1674 Three past busts were very scary regarding some of the players in this year's class: 1) "considered a can’t-miss prep bat coming out of high school, as a right-handed hitter with tremendous bat speed and enough strength to project to have a plus-plus hit and power tool. Though he was a below-average athlete, he had quality hands and a plus arm, and he looked like a mainstay at the hot corner." Sounds similar to Alex Jackson, but this was Josh Vitters. Drafted #3 in 2007, he has spent 8 years in the Cubs minor league system. He managed to rack up an impressive -1.4 WAR in just 108 PAs in 2012 for the Cubs. Career minor league walk rate of just 5.3%. 2) "in terms of pure stuff, few if any prep left-handers have shown better pitches and command in the last 10 years. He touched 95 mph with his fastball, and he also featured a filthy slider that could cause lefties and righties to swing and miss. Add in an above-average curveball, an average changeup from a clean delivery, along with an advanced ability to throw strikes, and you have a prospect who, on paper, seemed like a can't-miss star." Brady Aiken? Nope, Tyler Matzek, who has yet to have a BB/9 less that 4.5. College players aren't immune, either. 3) "left-hander with a fastball that touched 96 mph and a slider that flashed plus-plus with hard, late tilt, many thought he would be an ace." Rodon? Nope, Andrew Miller, who only found success in the majors as a left-handed specialist after failing as a starter. If Gordon's floor is Florimon, then Jackson's floor is Vitters, which might be worse.

5/15 Meyer pitched 5 no-hit innings last week. He racked up 7 strikeouts, but also issued 4 walks. This is now 6 straight games with at least 3 walks. Strangely, he was pulled after only 79 pitches. I hope everything is okay - I haven't heard anything regarding an injury. His walk rate is still pretty high, sitting at 12.1% (it was 9.7% last year). His strikeout rate basically identical to last season (28.2%), and he is second in the International League in strikeout rate behind... Trevor May (29.1%). Unfortunately, Meyer also has the 3rd highest walk rate.

It is fascinating to me that we have such completely opposite viewpoints on the top two high school players. Jackson is the player that scares me. All of his value it tied to his bat, and as a corner outfielder, he is really going to need to hit in order to be valuable. Maybe he will become the next Matt Holliday and be a great hitter, but if he misses his projection just a little bit - say he struggles with breaking balls, or doesn't quite draw enough walks, or his power doesn't quite develop - then he is just a good hitter. If he misses by more than a little bit, then he is just an average hitter. An average-to-good hitter at a corner position is not terribly valuable. By no means not a zero, but not the type of player that will carry a team to the next level. Throw in the fact that he probably won't add a ton of value fielding (hopefully he is at least an average defender out there), and I am very, very concerned that he will struggle to be a league-average player.

5/$40M feels like way too much, but I'm not sure I have a good idea of what his arbitration baseline is. Chris Johnson received $2.3M his first year, and he hadn't performed like Dozier has the past year. I bet Dozier makes at least $3M his first year and maybe $15M-$20M overall. Of course, if he keeps playing out of his mind the next two seasons (say, flirts with 30-30 seasons, makes an all-star team or two, wins a gold glove), then it is quite possible that his first arbitration year will end up at $5M or more. Dan Uggla got almost $6M his first year, and that was back in 2009. At that point his arbitration baseline is probably closer to $30M total. If I were to offer a contract, this is how it would be structured: 4 years, $18M guaranteed (basically locks in arbitration value for a good but not great player) Team options for years 5 ($12M) and 6 ($15) (two free agent years) Total value: 6 years, $45M Twins get cost certainty for the next four seasons, as well as the option to keep him around for his age-31 and age-32 seasons. Dozier avoids risk of injury or becoming bad. Unfortunately, Gyorko already signed for more than this, and Dozier is a better player (so far). I'm not he would take this offer.

That line would be pretty amazing for a shortstop, and with plus defense it would easily make him a 4-6 Win player. Some shortstop comparisons... Jimmy Rollins Career: .269/.328/.426/.754 Peak (2007): .296/.344/.531/.875 - 6.4 fWAR Elvis Andrus Career: .273/.338/.348/.686 Peak (2012): .286/.349/.378/.727 - 4.0 fWAR The nice thing about SS is that the bar is so low for hitting that even a below-average hitter can be very valuable. That is one of the reasons why I have him ahead of Jackson. Just out of curiosity, how would you fill in the same sentence about Jackson? "I still need to be reassured that Jackson can be a X/Y/Z/(Y+Z) hitter with ?? defense at (LF? RF? C?)."

I do not think going deliberately and significantly under slot by selecting a lesser player with the hope of making up that talent with later picks is a good idea. However, I see nothing wrong with attempting to sign whomever the Twins dictate is the best player as cheaply as possible (within reason). With that in mind, I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins have had (or will have) discussions with a dozen or more players about what they would sign for at #5. Most players in the 5-15 ranks have a reasonable incentive to cut a slightly under slot deal. Hopefully these negotiations bear little or no impact on the actual selection.

5/10 Meyer had another bad start, this time against the Toledo Mud Hens. Though his final line was bad (4 IP, 6 R, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 2 K), it looked bad primarily due to one bad inning. In the bottom of the second inning he gave up 5 runs, 4 hits and a walk, but there were also 2 errors behind him and a wild pitch. He didn't necessarily help himself during that inning, but he was also victimized by things outside of his control. So far his walk rate is higher than it was last season, as he has now walked at least three batters in each of his past 5 starts.