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Baseball Prospectus released a Draft Ten Pack yesterday where they played out the top 10 picks with various writers/scouts taking each team. This was released prior to the Hoffman announcement (who was taken #4). The Twins ended up taking Holmes, with Toussaint, Jackson and Gordon going 6,7,8. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23506

"Top Prospect" seems a little strong, but he has put himself back on the prospect map again. A few thoughts: 1) He is old for the level now, which is usually the kiss of death for a minor league player. 2) Dozier didn't reach High A until he was 23, and repeated the level at 24 before finally getting promoted to AA. If Michael keeps hitting this month and gets promoted, he isn't too far off the normal prospect path. 3) If he is able to continue to refine his skillset (controls the strikezone, takes a walk, plays multiple infield positions), I wouldn't be surprised to see him carve out a niche in the AAA/MLB as a utility player somewhere along the Doug Brenier - Nick Punto continuum.

My board right now: Tier 1 (super-exciting if one of these guys fell to the Twins) 1) Aiken 2) Rodon 3) Kolek Tier 2 (still exciting) 4) Hoffman (assuming healthy) 5) Gordon 6) Jackson 7) Holmes Tier 3 (not so exciting, but not the end of the world) 8) Freeland 9) Beede 10) Zimmer 11) Nola Anyone else would either be a disappointment or I just don't know enough about them right now. I was pretty close to moving Freeland up to Tier 2. Maybe I'll feel differently after I learn more about him in the next few weeks. Also, I was very close to dropping Nola off the list.

5/4 Meyer had a bit of a hiccup yesterday, as his overall line did not end up very good: 4 2/3 innings, 4 ER, 5 hits, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts. Meyer cruised through the first three innings, but he ended up having trouble getting out of both the fourth and fifth innings. In the fourth, he gave up a home run and a walk with two outs, and in the fifth he gave up a walk and a double with two outs before being taken out of the game.

I would hesitate to equate signing a player under slot with assuming that player was not the best player available. Looking back at the past two drafts, lots of top-20 picks signed under slot even though there was no question about the legitimacy of the pick. Case in point: Jonathan Gray was widely assumed to be a top-3 talent, but he still signed for over 800K less than slot (and only $300K more than Kohl Stewart signed with the Twins). From a negotiating standpoint, most of these players will have very little leverage once they are drafted. College pitchers and high school players in particular have very little to gain but a lot to lose by arguing over a few hundred thousand dollars on a $3+ million deal. If they drafted someone like Gordon, Jackson, Hoffman or Holmes, I would not be surprised if they were able to sign them slightly under the slot value. However, I too will be extremely disappointed if the Twins used the #5 pick to draft someone in the 20+ range and signed him for significantly under slot.

I agree. This is not the year for the Twins to try to play games with bonus pool money. There are too many teams that are in a much better position. The following teams all have multiple picks between the #5 and #46, AND have have more money to spend overall. 1) Mia - $14MM - (#36, #39, #43) 2) Hou - $13MM - (#37, #42) 3) Tor - $9.5MM - (#9, #11) 4) KC - $8.5MM - (#17, #28, #40) 5) Col - $8MM - (#8, #35) 6) Cle - $8MM - (#21, #31, #38) 7) Mil - $7.5MM - (#12, #42) All of those teams are in a much better position to pick someone who is falling. Additionally, the Cubs and White Sox both pick before the Twins, and any money they save on their top pick could be used again for the second round pick. It is interesting how much bonus pool money was saved in the top few picks last season. Houston signed Appel for $1.44MM under slot, and Colorado signed Gray for $826K under slot. That is some fairly significant savings that they could distribute later in the draft. If Houston pulls the same move again (and they should have some idea of the signing demands of whomever they draft), they could easily give top-10 money to the #37 pick, and probably top-5 money if they also pull from their #42 slot. Long story short, I don't see how there will be any players available at #46 that will be worth going significantly overslot on. Any top-10 or top-15 talent that falls will be picked by some other team before he reaches the Twins.

4/28 It seems that Meyer is back on track. His start last night was another gem: 6 shutout innings, 11 strikeouts, only 2 hits. Again, he managed to get a lot of swinging strikes and a fair number of ground balls. Here are a few articles about his start: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/min/twins-prospect-alex-meyer-has-second-straight-11-k-night-in-triple-a?ymd=20140428&content_id=73682532&vkey=news_min http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Will_Middlebrooks_wonders_why_Alex_Meyer_is_still_in_TripleA042314 There has a fair amount of discussion that Meyer has a new changeup that he's using. If anyone finds some scouting reports on it, please post them here.

Thanks. Sorry I missed the original post earlier. That is an interesting note about Jackson. It is crazy how much of his overall value depends on his ultimate position. As a catcher, a Wil Myers-lite hitter is an All-Star. As a corner-outfielder, he is basically a league average player.

Lonestar, can you share the link where you read that? Or at least provide the context? I'm trying to figure out what he meant. Is Jackson a different type of player than Myer (making direct comparisons questionable) or a clearly inferior player? If it is the latter, I'm very curious why he has that opinion. Myer wasn't very highly thought of going into the 2009 draft (#31 on BA's board, drafted in 3rd round), while Jackson has been in top-10 discussions all year.

4/23 Alex Meyer had by far his best start of the season. He pitched into the 7th inning, giving up only 3 hits and 3 walks, no runs, and 11 strikeouts. Yes. 11 strikeouts! In many ways, this is a "classic" Meyer start: lots of strikeouts, lots of swinging strikes (12%), and lots of ground balls (8 GB, 3 FB). Scouting reports said that his velocity was great, as he was consistently in the upper- to mid-nineties with his fastball. Hopefully the first few starts were an aberration, and he is now back on track.

I'm a couple of starts behind right now. Sorry everyone. 4/12 Again Meyer's start was pushed back a day due to a weather postponement. He pitched well, going 5 1/3 innings. He gave up 3 runs (only 1 earned) to go with 5 strikeouts and no walks. Fellow member Thylos was at the game and provided a great writeup and scouting report. http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2849-Red-Wings-at-IronPigs-3-game-Redux-Part-I-Alex-Meyer 4/18 Meyer started against the Syracuse Chiefs (Washington Nationals AAA team) last night and pitched one of his worst starts as a member of the Twins organization. He pitched just 3 2/3 innings and allowed 10 batters to reach base: 5 hits, 4 walks and a hit batter. He only had 2 strikeouts and gave up a home run. There are a couple of worrisome trends so far this year. First, Meyer was an extreme ground-ball pitcher last year, with a GB/FB ratio of 1.5. This season, that ratio is inverted as it is now only 0.64. Second, his swinging strike percentage has dropped from 9.2% in 2013 (think Justin Masterson) to 7.6% so far this year (think Kyle Lohse). Hopefully this is just small-sample-size noise rather than a change in performance. But it is something to keep an eye on going forward.

4/6 After being pushed back for a couple of days due to weather, Alex Meyer was finally able to start the 2014 season. He made the start against Buffalo. Though Rochester would end up losing the game in extra innings, Meyer pitched fairly well. He pitched five innings, giving up three runs (only two earned) while striking out six. He also gave up one walk and three hits, though one of the hits was a home run. Overall, it wasn't his most dominant performance, but still very solid and a great way to start off the season.

Personal Information: Name: Alex Meyer Birth date: January 3, 1990 Position: SP Height: 6'9" Weight: 220 Bats: Right Throws: Right High School: Greensburg, IN College: University of Kentucky Professional History: 2011: Meyer was drafted with the 23rd overall pick by the Washington Nationals in the 2011 Draft. Going into the draft he was rated #19 by Baseball America and #9 by Keith Law on ESPN. He signed too late after the 2011 draft to pitch professionally in the 2011 season. 2012: Meyer started his professional career as a 22-year-old in low-A Hagerstown in the Nationals farm system. He started 18 games there, and he showed the ability to miss bats while having decent control, averaging 9.7 SO/9 and 3.09 SO/BB. He was promoted to high-A Potomac for the final 7 games of the season, and continued his good performance: 10.7 SO/9 and 3.15 SO/BB. Overall, he pitched 129 innings between the two levels, with an ERA under 3.00 and a .211 batting average against. He was acquired by the Twins from the Nationals in exchange for Denard Span on November 29, 2012 2013: The 2013 season started out with Meyer making every major top-100 prospect list: #40 MLB.com #59 Baseball America #61 ESPN #63 Minor League Ball #78 Fangraphs #88 Baseball Prospectus Within the Twins organization he has battled with Kyle Gibson for title of best pitching prospect, and has been ranked as anywhere from the Twins's 3rd to 6th best prospect. Meyer was assigned to AA New Britain to start the season. He pitched well during the first half of the season, and through June 1st he had thrown 61 innings over 11 games with a 3.69 ERA, 10.8 SO/9 and 2.7 SO/BB. It was at this point the Meyer was put on the disabled list for a sore shoulder. He was on the DL for over 2 months, and after three rehab starts in the Gulf Coast League, he was re-activated on August 24th. He was able to get two more starts with New Britain before season's end, throwing 9 innings of shutout ball with 11 strikeouts and just 2 walks. Meyer was selected for the Arizona Fall League and was able to get an additional 26 innings over 7 starts. He was one of the best pitchers in the league, as he finished with a 3.12 ERA and 28 strikeouts against just 7 walks. Overall, Meyer pitched 104.1 innings for the 2013 season. 2014: Once again, Meyer was named to every top-100 prospect list, and in most cases moved up considerably: #23 Fangraphs #28 MLB.com #32 Baseball Prospectus #45 Baseball America #62 ESPN Within the Twins organization, he was basically the consensus #3 prospect after Buxton and Sano. Meyer has been assigned to AAA Rochester. Who he is, and where he is going: Scouting Report: The scouting report with Meyer starts with his stuff. Using his tall, lanky frame, he is able to generate serious heat on his pitches. He easily sits in the mid-90s with his fastball throughout his starts, and has been clocked in the triple digits from time to time. His breaking ball is also very effective, and he uses it against both right-handed and left-handed hitters. His change-up is okay, but improving. Scouts are now saying it is average and occasionally above-average, which is an improvement from where he was at with that pitch even a year ago. Meyer has the stuff of a front-line starter in the majors. What will ultimately determine if he reaches that ceiling is his control and durability. Being a tall pitcher, Meyer has struggled with his command and control. Often it varies from inning to inning, as well as start to start. Fortunately, his stuff is so good that he can get away with occasional lapses in command, but in order to become a true Ace pitcher, he will need to tighten up his control. Similarly, there are questions about his durability. Due to general caution about his innings in 2012 and his shoulder injury last season, Meyer has yet to pitch more than 130 innings over an entire season. To put that in perspective, Trevor May has pitched three consecutive seasons with at least than 150 innings, including 165 last year. So there are some lingering questions about Meyer's ability to be to handle a full-time starter's workload (30+ starts, 200+ inning). Outlook for 2014: There are two major questions about Meyer for this season. First, how long until he is called up to the majors? Second, what will the Twins do (if anything) to limit his innings? Meyer is starting the season in AAA. If he is pitching well, I have no reason to think that he won't be the first call-up if one of the current starters is out for an extended period of time. (I'm guessing Diamond gets the call if a spot-start is necessary.) However, he did only pitch about 104 innings last year, and in general teams are very leery of significantly increasing the workload on young arms from season to season. Just as we were all counting Kyle Gibson's innings last year, I'm guessing the same will happen with Meyer. Worst case / Best case: As with every pitcher, the worst case is a catastrophic arm injury. That aside, I think the worst case for Meyer is that he ends up with minor durability issues throughout the season, this could end up forcing a move to the bullpen. I don't think that is likely at this point, but it is still a possibility. Personally, I'm much more concerned about the durability questions than the command/control issues at this point. In general, I feel the command and control will continue given enough time, and since he has such great stuff, his command/control doesn't need to be perfect, or even great, for him to be an effective major league pitcher. I just needs to be okay to good. The best case is that his command continues to improve, and he is able to pitch the full season without any health issues. If he can stay healthy, pitch 150+ innings, and pitch well enough to merit a mid-season call-up; I think that would be a hugely successful season. When will he join the Twin? Soon. A lot depends on the effectiveness of Meyer as well as on the health and effectiveness of the five starters currently with the Twins. It could be as early as Memorial Day if Gibson implodes. It could be as late as September if everyone is healthy and pitching well. My guess is that Correia will be traded in June/July, and Meyer will be called up at that point to finish out the season. Injuries could definitely change that equation, but that is my best guess.

Alex Meyer

I definitely relate to this. I often catch myself over-thinking things with these top players in the sense that I want them to play really well, but not be too dominate, because if they are too good then they won't be available at #5. And if they are dominating too much, then I want them to scuffle a little bit, just so that they aren't too good to be available at #5. For example, I was almost happy to see Tyler Beede get hit around last weekend, just because he was potentially looking too good. Anyway, I'm trying to simplify things by just hoping that everyone plays great all spring, ensuring that there will be a great player available at #5.

Gettys is ranked toward the end of the 1st round. It does seem like the hitters aren't getting much love so far. I wonder how much of that has to do with needing a much larger sample size when analyzing a hit tool. It seems like it is easier to make snap judgments about pitchers, particularly with regard to velocity and "stuff". I'm guessing that the hitters will start to build some buzz after a month or two of games.

Thanks for providing the additional insider info. I didn't realize he went to school with Gonsalves. I wonder how well they know each other.

Add another name to the list of players to follow closely: Brady Aiken. Okay, most of us have been following Aiken already, but he is starting to generate some serious hype. Keith Law saw him yesterday, and posted a write-up today. Here is the money quote: So far, this is shaping up perfectly for the Twins. There appears to be a lot of good players (especially pitchers) available. Not a bad year to be drafting 5th.

I think I would put Nova ahead of Weaver right now. If it does go Rodon/Kolek/Hoffman/Beede, then I would prefer one of the top high school players (Gatewood, Aiken, et al) over Nova or Weaver. If Aiken really is hitting the mid-90s consistently, I think he would be a great choice at #5.

There are a couple of new draft reports up on ESPN. Both have a lot of good nuggets about the prospects that we've been discussing for the Twins at #5. They are both Insider pieces, but here are the highlights: Christopher Crawford: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1368 He reviews the big pitching matchups from the past weekend. 3 items of note: 1) Rodon wasn't great. Yes, 12 strikeouts were nice, but he also walked 4 and needed 125 pitches to get through 6 2/3 innings. 2) Kolek is rising. 3) Turner is falling. Keith Law: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1374 He watched Alex Jackson play this weekend. This post was primarily a scouting report, with analysis of his swing mechanics and other skills. Most interesting item is that he thinks Jackson will not stick at catcher and ultimately move to left or right. Law is planning on watching Brady Aiken tonight, who has some serious helium after hitting 97 last week.

I'm guessing it is part innings limits and part to avoid cold weather. Last year Berrios didn't make his first start of the season until April 22, even though the season started the first week of April.

Christopher Crawford posted on ESPN about the big pitching matchups this weekend. http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1356 I already pointed out the Beebe-Nola matchup, but he also mentioned that Rodon is going up against Luke Weaver of Florida St. Weaver has had a good season so far, and it now being mentioned as a mid-first round pick. I'm intrigued by this matchup for two reasons: 1) Is Rodon in play for the Twins at #5? Rodon is starting to lose steam as the consensus 1-1 pick, which means there is a higher likelihood that he will be available for the Twins at #5. Until now I had just assumed he would be gone by #5 and hadn't paid much attention. Now I'm paying attention, though I'm not sure how I feel about rooting for a player to be bad enough so the Twins can draft him. 2) How does Trae Turner perform against top pitching? Weaver is first round material, so it will be a good test for Turner. I know that I shouldn't draw any conclusions from a single game, but if he looks overmatched I can't but take that as a major negative.

Just based on some of the reports I've read about Gatewood, I'm guessing that he will be one of those prospects that is acquired as a "shortstop" but quickly moves off of the position, similar to Sano, Mike Moustakas or the Upton brothers. Definitely an intriguing prospect, and right now I wouldn't be disappointed if the Twins called his name at #5. I just don't expect him to stay at SS.

This sums up my current position on Turner. Yes, he is a nice player with some intriguing tools, but I don't think he is one of the top-5 players in the draft.

I just read that LSU is playing against Vanderbilt this coming weekend. Right now the Friday night tilt should match Aaron Nola (LSU) against Tyler Beede (Van). Both names have been in the discussion for the Twins at #5, so if the game is televised it would be great to get a chance to watch them pitch. So far both are putting up video game numbers this season. Beede: 4 GS, 25 IP, 33 SO, 5 BB, 11 H, 1.08 ERA Nola: 4 GS, 27 IP, 36 SO, 2 BB, 11 H, 0.00 ERA