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markos

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Everything posted by markos

  1. markos
    I think there has been a little misunderstanding with SD Buhr's comment. I don't think he was suggesting to INTENTIONALLY punt the pick, but rather than the downside of failing to sign Rodgers for slot ($3.8M) at #6 isn't super terrible, so the risk that he won't sign for that amount is manageable. I don't think the downsides that has been mentioned a lot regarding damaged relationships, PR hits, etc would apply in this case. Toronto has had lots of recent trouble signing HS kids (Bickford, Beede), but I haven't really heard anything suggesting that they are a pox to be avoided at all costs. This is my thought: Rodgers sticks with his $5M price tag up to the draft. Twins pick him at #6. They offer him full slot, plus maybe a little extra from below-slot signings later on. Let's say $4M. Does he really not take the $4M? My guess is at that point it is probably 80-20 that he does sign. With the 20% chance that he doesn't sign, the downside is what? From a PR perspective, the Twins should be fine. Maybe they didn't completely bend of backwards to get to the $5M number, but they negotiated fairly and did offer a good deal. In may ways, Rodgers is the one that comes across a little greedy in this scenario. So for me, I guess it isn't a slam-dunk case that they shouldn't take Rodgers with the #6 pick even if they don't have a deal in place beforehand. Sure, he might not sign, but provided they negotiate fairly I think there is a good chance he signs. And even if he doesn't, the worse-case scenario (#7 next year) isn't a bad consolation prize.
  2. markos
    My guess is that nobody knows where Aiken will end up until people start to hear rumors about which teams are asking to see his medicals. Jeremy, as the guy with some inside sources, it would be really interesting to know if the Twins have seen or plan to see Aiken's medicals before the draft.
  3. markos
    I have read that Colorado is looking for a pitcher. Maybe they are willing to change gears for Rodgers, but I think there is a legitimate chance they take the best pitcher on the board regardless of who else if available. So I can believe that Colorado passes, but I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Texas passes on him. The only thing I can think of is that they are so confident about their Latin-pipeline's ability to produce middle-infielders that they focus on a different position.
  4. markos
    I've heard that Hooper has not only struggled with command, but he has also struggled to keep his velocity. He can touch 97 in one or two inning stints (like the showcase games last summer), but when starting he mostly sits 90-93. If he is pitching just once a week, he will probably take another step back when in pro ball and pitching every 5 days. I'm not 100% how to judge stamina at his age, but it seems somewhat important when trying to project a future starter.
  5. markos
    There are a lot options - and good, intriguing options - at 6, but I think why everyone is negative is because the level of talent available at 6 is going to me closer to what is usually available in the 10-20 range of a normal draft. Not that a team can't find good players there, but historically it is a lot harder to get significant value. Some examples: 1) The #1 guy right now is Rodgers. Early on he was mentioned as maybe slightly better than Nick Gordon - similar tools but with a bit more power but less arm strength. Gordon wasn't in the consideration for #1 at all last year, and some people (here and elsewhere) thought he was a bit of a reach at #5. For what it is worth, Rodgers is the consensus #1 guy right now. 2) A couple weeks ago Jim Callis compared Swanson and Bregman to Trae Turner from last year. He likes Swanson a bit better, but indicated that Turner and Bregman are about the same. Bregman might go in the top-5 this year, and definitely top-10. Turner lasted until #13 last year. In many ways, it think it will be more fun this year, as there are a lot more names to look into and get excited about.
  6. markos
    Average ERA for AL starters last year was 3.92. I think your filter to just qualified starters skews things a little bit. In the AL, there were 76 pitchers that made at least 15 starts. 43 had an ERA under 4.00, which would put Gibson in the ~40th percentile. That being said, i think Gibson is perfectly serviceable as a back-of-the-rotation starter, even on a contending team.
  7. markos
    There has been a lot of buzz with the Twins and Kolby Allard, who BA just ranked #15. Do you know if they have serious interest in any of the quintet of HS outfielders ranked ahead of him? Garrett Whitley has had a ton of helium the past few weeks.
  8. markos
    I don't think that is true. I haven't seen any research to indicate that groundball pitchers have a lower HR/FB% than average. A quick look at 2014 indicates that of the 23 starters with >50% GB, 13 had HR/FB% greater than league average. Yes, he may give up fewer total HRs (because he gives up fewer flyballs in general), but that doesn't mean that the rate (HR/FB) will definitely be lower. And xFIP only normalizes the rate, not the total number of flyballs. There does seem to be some evidence that a pitcher who can consistently induce more popups (like Gibson might be able to) will be able to consistently outperform his xFIP.
  9. markos
    Yeah, I meant to mention something when I saw that in his latest article. I feel like the Twins have been pretty obvious about their targets in the past few drafts. If the industry seems to move toward a consensus about who the Twins like, I would bet they are right.
  10. markos
    It sounds like Carlos Correa is getting promoted to AAA soon - next week or so.
  11. markos
    I think Mike is right. The way I understand it is that if they call him up in September (or at any point in 2015), his service odometer won't tick past 6.000 until late in the 2021 season, at which point he will become a free agent after that season. However, if they hold off in calling him up until next April 14th (or so), then his service odometer won't tick past 6.000 until early in the 2022 season. So I agree with Mike's logic - it makes no sense (from an asset management standpoint) to exchange 30-35 games this September when he will be a 21-year-old rookie for the entire 2022 season when he will be a 28 and in the prime of his career. Or am I misunderstanding how the system works as well?
  12. markos
    Yeah, I think that package would be in the ballpark. Cameron certainly suggested some high-end names:
  13. markos
    Since my last update, Meyer has had two starts, one good and one bad. The first start happened on April 28th, and it wasn't very good. He only finished 4 innings and allowed 9 hits and 5 runs. He didn't walk anyone, but only had two strikeouts. His second start was on May 3rd, and it was much better. He pitched into the 8th inning, gave up only 6 hits and 3 runs. He did allow 4 walks but also had 6 strikeouts. This is the first time in his career that Meyer has made it past the 7th inning, and only the 3rd or 4th time that he has made it past the 6th inning. He also threw 104 pitches, which I believe is a career high. Considering that durability is one of the major question marks with Meyer, it was good to see him get extended deeper into games. Hopefully his arm responds well and he will continue to pitch like that.
  14. markos
    We've passed the threshold for this season, but I think discussion was more about waiting until next season. If Buxton is called up anytime between now and next April 14th (or so) he will under team control until after the 2021 season. However, if he is kept in the minors until after next April 14th (or so), he will be under team control until 2022. So as this season keeps moving along, it makes less and less sense to call him up (from the standpoint of maximizing team control). At a certain point (maybe August?) I'm not certain it makes sense to call him up to finish out the season in the majors.
  15. markos
    Callis and Mayo projected the first 10 picks: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/121103208/jim-callis-jonathan-mayo-project-top-10-picks-in-2015-draft 6. Twins Callis: Mike Nikorak, RHP, Stroudsburg (Pa.) HS. Minnesota isn't afraid to take high school arms early -- see Kohl Stewart at No. 4 in 2013 -- and Nikorak has the stuff, athleticism and pitchability to become the best pitcher in this Draft class. Mayo: Alex Bregman, SS, Louisiana State. The Twins could have interest in Rodgers or Cameron, should they still be here. Save that, Bregman is the best position player available, one who has performed well at a top-notch program and could move fairly quickly. Interesting note: Mayo is guessing Aiken goes #7 to the Red Sox.
  16. markos
    One thing I noticed between the past two seasons is that last year Vargas was very, very good at making contact on pitches in the zone (~88% - close to Mauer-esque), but this season has been pretty terrible (~78% - close to Arcia-esque). I wonder if the mechanical/timing changes have caused him to be susceptible to certain pitches within the zone.
  17. markos
    For the moment I'm still willing to (mostly) give the front office the benefit of the doubt. They did a decent job from 2001-2010, and that should count for something. However, I do share some of skepticism. One of the big drivers of the success in the last decade was Ryan's ability to make savvy trades, I have fairly serious concerns that those same trades are just not available anymore. The landscape of how players (particularly prospects) are valued has changed a lot: I don't know if another Santana will ever be available in the rule 5 draft again, if a Pierzynski will merit a Liriano, Nathan and Bonser in a trade again, or if a Bartlett will be available for a Brian Buchanan. Similarly, the Twins managed to get a lot of value out of drafting polished college pitchers (Garza, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn...). Are those players available like they used to be? Or have other teams caught on and are now drafting them sooner? Though I'm not completely ready to write off this front office, I do wonder if their magic no longer works.
  18. markos
    a: I want them to be competitive next season. b: I expect them to be competitive in 2017. They have too many holes and too many young players that still need to develop at the majors for them to be competitive next season, but I honestly think that they should be .500 or better in 2017. c: I think the Twins mistakenly think they should be competitive right now, and that they already have built a good team.
  19. markos
    I disagree. If he moved toward CF it was only a little bit. He certainly wasn't very close to Schafer when the ball hit the fence, so I definitely wouldn't say he was in position to help out no matter which way the ball bounced. And running back to the fence, it appears (based on the grass mowing lines) that he mostly ran straight back to the wall from when he entered the frame.
  20. markos
    I mostly agree with this, but I heard Jim Callis on NatsGM podcast yesterday say that he can make a case that Harris is the top college pitcher in this draft. If I recall correctly, he basically argued that... 1) He has the best combination of size (6'4"), build (can still fill out), stuff (as good as Funkhouser), and control. 2) He is definitely a starter, unlike the others with questions of delivery or size (Fulmer, Beuhler, et al). 3) He has succeeded as a starter for a while now (unlike Tate). I definitely don't think he would be BPA at #6, but Callis's analysis was enough for me that I won't hate the pick if it happens.
  21. markos
    Mayo's article touches on the same depth: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/120823800/injuries-impact-landscape-of-top-100-draft-prospects-list Perhaps not the best year to be missing a 2nd round pick.
  22. markos
    I am very skeptical that Plouffe would accept a 4-year, $30M offer. He isn't a poor pre-arb player. He's earned almost $10M in his career already. That's not quite set-for-life money, but its not a pittance, and therefore I don't think he has a dire need to exchange future earnings for security. The arbitration process basically ensures that he is locked in for at least $10M over the next two years unless he is released, and most likely he will get raises that will move him into the $15M-$20M range. If I was advising Plouffe, I would tell him to either sign a market-rate extension (at least 4 year, $40M+) with the Twins or get to free agency as quickly as possible. From the Twins perspective, I don't see the need for an extension at that price. There may be some need for him after the 2017 season, but in that case he should be good enough to warrant a qualifying offer.
  23. markos
    Kieth Law just posted some notes about Fulmer. http://espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=3884 He is emphatic that Fulmer is a reliever: He has Fulmer in the back of his top-50 (#43), and said he wouldn't consider him until the sandwich round at the earliest. Also, he likes SS Swanson and considers him a top-5 pick. Draft experts seems awfully polarized with Fulmer. Callis tweeted the other day that in his opinion Fulmer is definitely a reliever. It will be interesting to see where he and Mayo rank him when they release their updated draft rankings tomorrow.
  24. markos
    Looking at 2000-2009, there were 20 HS pitchers taken in the top-10 picks: 3 top-of-the-rotation starters (Kershaw, Bumgarner, Greinke) 6 mid-to-back-of-rotation starters (Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Homer Bailey, Jarrod Parker, Zack Wheeler, Justin Turner). 11 did make the majors as a starter I'd say that your 10%-20% guess is pretty accurate. I'm pretty risk-adverse in general, so I'm not enthralled by the thought of drafting Aiken. As many have already pointed out, that TJ article doesn't address the specific recovery rates of pitchers of Aiken's age and caliber. However, the risk isn't zero. And for me, the biggest risk isn't that he will never pitch again. I'm more concerned that his stuff won't come all the way back. Is Aiken worth it if he only tops out at 93 instead of the 95+ pre-surgery? Or what if his control is shakier after surgery? There are several examples of really great pitchers who didn't completely recover. Liriano was never quite the same after surgery. Dylan Bundy is 2+ years removed from his surgery and his velocity still isn't back. Even Strasburg's velocity didn't come all the way back to what he showed his rookie year.
  25. markos
    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/4/25/8497253/2015-mlb-draft-should-carson-fulmer-be-a-starter-or-reliever Interesting piece from John Sickels about Carson Fulmer. Lots of draft analysts seem to be putting Fulmer in the reliever bucket, but Sickels is skeptical. Along those lines, there have been several pitchers (Chris Sale, Matt Harvey) who dropped because the consensus was that they would end as relievers, only to turn into really good starters. Every year Sickels does a "shadow draft" as the Twins. He is strongly considering Fulmer at #6.
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