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markos

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Everything posted by markos

  1. markos
    There does seem to be a lot of buzz that Tate is dropping right now. That would be very good news (though I have some lingering doubts about his durability...), but I wonder how much of that buzz is just spin to get him to lower his asking price.
  2. markos
    I agree that defense is the real key here. If he is a legitimate plus defender in CF, then he has a strong case for BPA at #6. If he serviceable at best - and most likely will move to a corner - then pass. I haven't seen him play, so I can't judge one way or another.
  3. markos
    I know that one expert (I think Jim Callis) considered Bregman similar to Trae Turner from last year, not in style but in overall talent. And most experts had Turner ranked slightly below Gordon last year. If the transitive property holds with prospects, then I think it is reasonable to think that Gordon would be ranked ahead of Bregman if he was in this draft.
  4. markos
    Jeremy, I think your top-5 prediction is completely reasonable. Is it your personal opinion that the Twins should pick between Tucker and Jay, or do you think that is what the Twins are thinking right now? I have a hard time believing that Tucker is the BPA in this scenario... but I can't make a really strong case that it should be someone else. Such is this draft.
  5. markos
    Didn't Parker post something from Spring Training that seemed to indicate that Meyer's arm slot was lower than past seasons? Or am I imagining this?
  6. markos
    The latest research seems to indicate that McCracken's original thesis was too strong, and that there is a lot more evidence now (particularly using the latest Statcast data) that pitchers do indeed control batted-ball results. Here is an article just this week talking about it: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-baseballs-exit-velocity-is-five-parts-hitter-one-part-pitcher/ Now, I completely agree that his .426 BABIP is mostly due to some bad luck. However, I don't think it is so simple to say that it is entirely bad luck, as there are a lot of factors within Meyer's control that do matter. Two things that were mentioned in the article that may be meaningful in Meyer's case. First, getting into advantageous counts is one of the best ways for pitchers to suppress BABIP. Meyer has really struggled with control, so probably has been behind in the count a lot. Second, throwing a lot of straight four-seam fastballs is also a good way to run a higher than normal BABIP, as batters make the best contact on those kind of pitches. That is what Meyer throws, and there were comments that the Twins are trying to get him to change his arm-slot in order to get better movement on his fastball. More important than the outrageous BABIP, it is very concerning that Meyer's strikeout rate has dropped by 20% from last year, and his walk-rate has increased by 15%. These are the big red-flags that things aren't right with him.
  7. markos
    If you only look at players with a minimum of 2000 innings, you are going to end up with severe survivor bias. There are lots of players who were so terrible at defense that they were quickly moved off the position. Like you, I also highly doubt that Myers is a true talent -57 UZR, but I also don't think it is unreasonable to think that he is the worst everyday centerfielder we have seen in a while. And if a team is crazy enough to give him 2000 innings in CF, his defensive numbers will incredibly bad.
  8. markos
    As most people have heard by now, Alex Meyer was moved to the bullpen for Rochester. Word is that this is a temporary move to get him back on track. Here is the discussion here: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18229-alex-meyer-moved-to-bullpen/ Also, here are two articles from the local beat writers: http://www.startribune.com/twins-notes-meyer-sent-to-bullpen-at-class-aaa-rochester/304789931/ http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/05/22/twinsights-alex-meyer-moves-to-the-rochester-bullpen/ Here are a few of my own thoughts on the change: * I suggested this move a while back. I think being able to pitch more often and in shorter stints may help him get his mechanics back in order. * This has always been a concern with Meyer from day one, as almost every single prospect expert has mentioned the possibility that he may ultimately end up as a bullpen arm. * There have been several comments that the Twins are trying to tweak his arm slot to improve his consistency and movement. I really, really hope this doesn't lead to an injury. Messing around with arm slots with a guy who has already had multiple shoulder issues seems scary. * There have also been several comments that most of Meyer's current control issues are mostly mental. I think this is an absolutely terrible excuse, and it is just wrong to blame a pitcher's control issues on mental weakness. Pitching with good command is really, really difficult. * This doesn't change my opinion of the Span trade, though to be fair I thought the return for Span was light as Meyer, though extremely talented, carried a significant amount of risk.
  9. markos
    It is important to remember that defensive values are not absolute, and instead are relative to the league average at the position. So Myers may not be historically bad in an absolute sense, but he may be historically bad in a relative sense as more and more teams are emphasizing strong defense, particularly in the outfield.
  10. markos
    My point was that this outlier could just be the byproduct of randomness (and therefore has zero predictive value) rather than being an actual thing based on the characteristics of these specific pitchers. And given the small subgroup size relative to the population, it is almost a given than SOME outlier subgroup(s) will exist purely by chance. This specific subgroup (short, healthy right-handed pitchers) lends itself to a good narrative to explain why it has meaning (or value, or whatever) - in my view that was the entire point of the article. But I'm not convinced that in reality it is any more meaningful than a more ridiculous subgroup (say, right-handed college position players born in April) that would happen to have a similar success rate. I'm not saying that McDaniel's theory is definitely incorrect. It very well could be that this outlier group is legitimate and predictive going forward. I'm just skeptical right now because I don't think there is enough evidence in his sample to distinguish his theory from random chance.
  11. markos
    This was a good article, and I definitely think that their are blind spots in how players are ranked and drafted. However, the analytic part of me thinks his theory may just be an example of the "Elderly Hispanic Women Effect" or this comic - if one creates enough subgroups in a sample of data, one of the subgroups is bound to be interesting just by chance. So looking back over the past 10 years of drafts and the top roughly 200 players drafted, he created a subgroup with only 8 members, and it happened to have good results. Well, the 200 players could be divided 25 random 8-member subgroups. Even if each of the 200 players had an identical 50-50 chance of making it, the odds are pretty good that at least one of the 25 subgroups would have 7 of the 8 making it just by chance. So I really don't know if the sample-size is large enough to make sweeping statements about the success rate of this type of pitcher.
  12. markos
    I think the Twins deserve a lot of credit for Gonsalves's development. Two years ago, he was a kid with inconsistent velocity, bad control and a non-existent breaking ball. Today, he is demonstrating excellent command, has a more than serviceable breaking ball, and good enough (and seemingly consistent) velocity. And maybe he will add a couple of ticks to his fastball, which certainly would help. Hopefully he will continue to be durable and hold up over the course of his first full season.
  13. markos
    Did you happen to note Gonsalves's fastball velocity during the game?
  14. markos
    Meyer pitched today (5/19) and again had a mediocre start. He only pitched 4 2/3 innings, and gave up 7 hits, 3 walks and hit a batter. Ultimately, he game up 4 runs. He did manage 7 strikeouts. It certainly doesn't seem like Meyer is making much improvement so far this season. He is uncharacteristically giving up a ton of hits, but he hasn't made any improvement in walk rate, and his strikeout rate has slips as well. I don't know when it will be time to move Meyer to the bullpen, but I went through the effort of collecting Meyer's stats from the first 3 innings of all of his starts in the past two years: 1st inning: 24.1% K, 11.0% BB, .600 OPS against, 2.31 ERA 2nd inning: 29.1% K, 10.4% BB, .673 OPS against, 4.41 ERA 3rd inning: 20.5% K, 8.2% BB, .847 OPS against, 6.25 ERA Perhaps these splits are random noise, but it certainly seems that Meyer loses effectiveness as the game progresses. Maybe it is a fatigue issue, or maybe he just has trouble the second time through the order. As an interesting blueprint for what Meyer may be like in the bullpen, consider Dellin Betances. He struggled with his control in the Yankee's system for several years, but after moving to bullpen in 2013 has been one of the most effective relievers in baseball (1.67 ERA over 118 innings the past two seasons). Like Meyer, he is also a very tall pitcher (6' 8") who throws very, very hard (averages 96.1 MPH this season).
  15. markos
    Regarding the Twins (non)investment in catchers... 1) With the #78 pick in 2013, the selection of Stuart Turner was the highest draft pick used on a catcher since Mauer was selected #1. Since the Mauer pick, they have drafted 13 catchers in the first 10 rounds, with the average pick being #210. 2) Other than Wilson Ramos, I am unaware of any other Latin American prospects of note at the catcher position. There may have been a few catcher signings, and maybe even some high-profile signings, but I'm certainly not aware any catchers in the Twins organization who has shown any serious development from Latin America since Ramos - who was signed in 2004. I get it that developing catchers is not easy, but it certainly seems to me that the Twins have neglected the position for years now.
  16. markos
    I agree with this. The Twins have had a certain amount of luck in grinding out value from position prospects, but it certainly seems very unlikely right now that anyone currently in the Twins organization will be an above-average major league catcher in the near future. I'm not sure how to fix that, but I'm not sure that the draft is the right avenue to address the problem. It seems like they may need to try to acquire someone from outside the organization, either via trade or free agency. As an aside, the catcher position is evolving (more focused on pitch-framing and offense), and I'm not sure how quickly the Twins will recognize the value of the non-traditional catcher skills.
  17. markos
    Jim Bowden reported a couple weeks ago that the Giants were in the market for a long-term 3B solution (not just a rental), and they were willing to trade minor league pitching. I thought it would be worth exploring for the following reasons: 1) The Twins have a decent short-term replacement in Escobar 2) They have a potential long-term replacement in Sano 3) The Giants have a long history of giving up serious, high-end prospects for players (Zack Wheeler, Francisco Liriano) 4) They have lots of pitching prospects (and a mix of high-ceiling and high-floor) to choose from right now (Beede, Crick, Mella as some interesting names to headline a deal) The Twins are definitely dealing from a position of strength, as they have no dire need to move Plouffe any time soon. However, I don't think he is untouchable, and if an offer comes along that blows their socks off (perhaps revolving around a really good catching prospect?), they should take it.
  18. markos
    I think this is nothing but great news for the Twins. With no 2nd-round pick this year, there is absolutely no reason for them to try to play games with the #6 pick. The just need to rank their board based on talent, select whomever drops, sign him, and that's it. The more the top teams try to plays games by saving money on lessor players, the better off the Twins will be.
  19. markos
    Actually, he does argue that Hunter has been the better player, both explicitly and implicitly: "As the Twins return to Target Field for a weekend series, they are surprisingly competitive. This has more to do with Hunter’s return to the team than Mauer’s ongoing presence. Given how the two have performed since Hunter left the franchise, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised." "In short, the older player known for running into fences has been more durable and productive." "In addition to being more productive, ..." I didn't read anything in the article to suggest that Souhan was making the nuanced take that Mauer has been the better player, but factoring in cost makes Hunter more value. He is explicitly stating that Hunter has been both more productive and more valuable.
  20. markos
    I've often suspected that the Twins definition of "Best" leans toward HS position player.
  21. markos
    Minor correction: Plouffe is a free agent after the 2017 season, so he is under control for just another 2 years after this one. Also, it is unlikely that the even the best college players in this draft will demand a full-time position in the majors after just a single year in the minors, so it is pretty safe to say that any SS they would draft won't be ready until after the 2017 season. That is pretty far out, and right now it certainly seems possible that there would be a spot available for him. It doesn't seem super pessimistic to think that: 1) Plouffe leaves via free agency 2) Santana isn't able to recreate his 2014, and ends up more of a utility player 3) Gordon is still in minors 4) Sano has to move off of 3B At that point maybe Dozier has lost a step and is a better defensive fit at 3B, and Polanco and this SS are able to man the middle.
  22. markos
    Thanks. It certainly feels like something meaningful rather than just small-sample randomness. That is a large OPS difference.
  23. markos
    I'm not certain if there are sample-size issues with your split, but it certainly is not unheard of for batters to have vision issues that prevent them from reaching their full potential. IIRC, Span took his game to another level after getting Lasik surgery. I would be curious to see Walker's OPS split.
  24. markos
    I had Meyer slightly ahead of Berrios before the season, mostly due to Meyer's better overall stuff. I generally hesitate to re-evaluate prospects after only a few weeks of the season, but given how wide the discrepancy has been between them I can't really argue that Meyer is the better prospect anymore.
  25. markos
    Do you think teams/agents have good enough relationships that an agent would be comfortable telling the Twins, "If he drops to you at #6, he will still sign for slot. Don't worry. But we are telling everyone above you, both publicly and privately, that the number is $5M, so don't say anything."? It seems like there would need to be an awful lot of trust on both sides. P.S. Jeremy, thanks for engaging in this thread, answering questions and sharing your insider knowledge. I'm sorry if I ever badger you for answers too much, but I really appreciate the quick answers.
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