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markos

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Everything posted by markos

  1. markos
    I might be mis-remembering, but I recall that the Twins had a policy with Alex Meyer that he was automatically pulled if he had more than 30 pitches in an inning. I could be the case that Stewart operates under similar rules, and that his 4th inning was too long.
  2. markos
    Are you guessing that 10 hits were stolen just in 2014? If so, that is pretty significant - adding those hits back in would increase his batting average to .299. And if you assume that half of the hits stolen were potential doubles, that would up his OPS to .780.
  3. markos
    It depends on the context. Looking at Stewart as a generic HS pitcher, he is doing fine right now (also fine in your scenario where he is in Cedar Rapids). So in that context, he is still a good, fairly exciting prospect. However, Stewart isn't a generic HS pitcher - he was the #4 pick in the draft. Elite HS pitchers drafted that high should be dominating these low levels. The vast majority of top drafted HS pitchers ended up forcing a promotion to at least AA by their second full season. That doesn't seem likely with Stewart. So in this context, there is plenty of reason to worry.
  4. markos
    It would be really interesting if someone was able to quantify exactly how many hits have been taken away due to aggressive shifting. Yes, Mauer's drop-off in production has coincided with the brain injury, but it has also coincided with his decline years and with a significant league-wide uptick in defensive shifts. It is hard to know exactly how much each factor is contributing to his decline. I've always thought that Mauer is one of the most shiftable hitters in the league (flyballs go opposite field; grounders get pulled). I recall a post (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2014-mlb-playoffs-exploiting-kansas-city-royals-ultimate-outfield-jarrod-dyson-alex-gordon-lorenzo-cain/) showing how Mauer basically had to hit the foul line against Alex Gordon in order to get a hit down the line. Granted, that is just one example, but in general I think that there have been a lot of balls in play that three or more years ago that would definitely have been hits but now outfielders are getting to. Mauer has been hitting well with RISP. With runners on base, infielders are much less likely to be able to shift (or shift as aggressively). So maybe it isn't just small sample size luck that Mauer is hitting better with runners on base.
  5. markos
    I'm not sure they can wait a month. If they really want to take advantage of their surprisingly good start, they need to make a move (or moves) sooner rather than later. Waiting until the All Star break might be too late.
  6. markos
    I might be reading too much into this, but... Ben Lindbergh tweeted the probability of the strike-three call that Hunter lost his mind about last night. Apparently, Glen Perkins is unaware that information like this exists. Researchers in the public domain have been studying the strikezone and its evolving and fluid nature ever since the PitchFX data was release in 2008(?). Perkins seems to be quite knowledgeable about sabermetrics, so it kind of surprises me that he is unaware that this kind of information exists. More importantly, I can't believe that the Twins don't have this information. It certainly seems like this is something the Twins should be tracking internally, and providing to their players. But I guess not? I bet this means that they don't do anything regarding catcher framing, either.
  7. markos
    When I think about Walker's future, I feel like his future success depends on why he is striking out so much. And there are two factors: over-aggressiveness on bad pitches and holes in his swing. Basically, is he swinging and missing on balls out of the zone, or is he swinging and missing on pitches in the zone. I feel like the former can be (potentially) improved with more experience. The latter usually requires swing changes that may change the profile of the hitter. In Walker's case I wouldn't be surprised if it was some of both, but it is hard to figure out from the stat-line. Even prospect analysts don't always pick up on it. For example, Oswaldo Arcia didn't have glaring strikeout issues in the minors - though a few analysts mentioned that he was perhaps too aggressive. But I don't recall a single prospect writer pointing out that Arcia had a massive hole in his swing that would be exploited by major league pitchers and require significant mechanical adjustments.
  8. markos
    I noticed this same thing as Seth was going through the system depth-chart posts a few weeks ago. I have two questions for the crowd: Who is the most exciting player in the Twins system that: 1) Plays an up-the-middle position (CF, SS, 2B, C) 2) Is at High-A or lower 3) Not named Nick Gordon ?? Does that player make your top-20 prospect list?
  9. markos
    I agree that Jay was definitely not a reach at #6, but I do think it is important to recognize why he was available at #6. If he had started all year, stayed healthy, kept his stuff, and performed as well as he did as a reliever, then he probably goes 1-1. But the risk is that nobody knows for certain how his arm is going to react to being a starter. Sure, he has performed well in longer outings this year, which mitigates some of that risk. But the risk isn't zero, and it is perfectly reasonable for different people to rate that risk differently. I personally think it is a big risk, despite what the experts are suggesting. But I am biased toward pitchers who have demonstrated durability and stamina.
  10. markos
    My concern is that there is basically zero evidence to prove that his stuff will hold up when switching to a professional starter schedule - 6+ innings every five days. He only pitched 60 innings this year, which is his career high. Will his stuff stay when he gets to 80, or 100, or 150 innings? Or will his 95 MPH fastball drop down to 91 MPH when in a starters role? It wouldn't be the first time that a reliever loses velocity when moving to a starter.
  11. markos
    It kind of sucks that it is the Indians. I really wanted to cheer for him to do well.
  12. markos
    I'm not thrilled about this pick, but there wasn't anyone left who I liked a ton better. I'm definitely going to cheer for the kid, and I hope that he makes the adjustment to the rotation without any issues. But he has only picked 122 innings total in his college career, so it will be a big question mark if he can adjust to 180+ innings per season.
  13. markos
    Tidbit in McDaniel's last post: I find it interesting that Aiken has a home, and I wonder what his price is.
  14. markos
    A link would be helpful to your case.
  15. markos
    I feel like it was pretty much assumed by everyone that he was getting a call-up until the shoulder issue happened. It was reported as such by Berardino and Bollinger. http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/107369412/twins-alex-meyer-ready-to-compete-for-major-league-rotation
  16. markos
    That is a solid board. Quick question: How much consideration (if any) did you have for Andrew Benintendi in the top-10?
  17. markos
    You are forgetting that he was also shut down at the end of last year (with a sore shoulder) and missed a September promotion. All told, he has missed 25% of the past two seasons due to shoulder issues. For me, that is a health concern.
  18. markos
    His strikeout rate prior to moving to the bullpen was 22%, which is significantly lower than his career norm. Since moving to the bullpen he has struck out 8 of the 15 batters he's faced. Maybe it is just regression back to his norm, or maybe his stuff plays up in the bullpen. Hard to say.
  19. markos
    He also mentioned that he is hearing rumors that Aiken's medicals aren't terrible, and probably closer to "normal" TJ surgery than originally thought. That is good new for all those hoping for a surprise Aiken pick.
  20. markos
    This isn't too surprising. I looked at Meyer's stats for the first few innings of each game while in AAA: 1st inning: 24% K%, 11% BB%, 2.31 ERA, .600 oppOPS 2nd inning: 29% K%, 10% BB%, 4.41 ERA, .674 oppOPS 3rd inning: 20% K%, 8% BB%, 6.25 ERA, .848 oppOPS
  21. markos
    I would argue that Bregman's power baseline is significantly higher than Michael's. Michael lost a lot of his power when the NCAA switched to composite bats between his sophomore and junior seasons. His junior year he only had a .455 SLG, .150 ISO and only 4 HRs. Bregman, in contrast, currently has a .548 SLG, .230 ISO and 9 HRs. Even though Bregman will probably lose some power transitioning to pro ball, his current baseline is high enough that he should remain effective (especially as a middle infielder) with even a moderate drop in power.
  22. markos
    This is happening to me a lot the past few days. Sometimes refreshing the page fixes the problem. But most of the time I can't scroll at all. It constantly brings me back up to the ad. Really annoying.
  23. markos
    I always subtract 1-2 MPH from any college starter to account for the difference between pitching once a week versus pitching every five days. So if Tate is 93-98 right now, I'm guessing he will be 91-96 as a pro, which is still really good for a starter (averaging 93 MPH gets one into the top-30) I think it is reasonable to do a similar adjustment for bullpen-to-starter conversions. That is the big question I have about Jay - will he be able to maintain his stuff during the grind of pitching every 5 days?
  24. markos
    Pitchers with 30% or higher during their first season in Low-A: Matt Cain (30%) Cole Hamels (43%) Scott Kazmir (35%) John Danks (32%) Clayton Kershaw (32%) Madison Bumgarner (30%) Shelby Miller (32%) Dylan Bundy (40%) Jose Fernandez (34%)
  25. markos
    I disagree. I think there are a lot of reasons to be very concerned. I looked at the top HS pitchers drafted from 2001-2013 (40ish pitchers) during their first full season of pro ball. The average K% for that group was 24%. Stewart's K% was only 17.22% last year, the 6th lowest. The only pitchers with lower K% were: Chris Gruler (14.29%) Matt Hobgood (14.60%) Trey Ball (15.11%) Colt Griffin (15.31%) Chris Volstad (15.57%) The only other names that were under 20%: Zach Lee (19.44%) Nick Travieso (17.53%) It is completely unprecedented for a pitcher drafted as highly as Stewart to struggle to get strikeouts as much as Stewart has and become anything more than a backend starter. Maybe he will be the exception, but right now he looks a lot more like the next Zach Lee than the next Jose Fernandez. And this isn't taking into account his injury issues. The strongest predictor of future injuries is past injury history, and he has already been hurt a lot. I am very concerned that he won't be able to hold up over a full season. I understand that he has a lot of good excuses to explain away his poor performance thus far. But until he starts missing bats consistently, I'm going to stay pessimistic.
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