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old nurse

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Everything posted by old nurse

  1. old nurse
    Shane Robinson is AAA filler. A backup disaster plan in case Polanco isn't ready as a plan C.
  2. old nurse
    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 I don't know quite what to make of the numbers. Yes Hunter is at the bottom of the list. Compared to average numbers it looks like Hunter did't get to about 6-7 balls all season that an average or above average outfielder would have. Expand the list out and you find for the time he was out there, Parmelee played an above average RF.
  3. old nurse
    Player 3 was Willingham?
  4. old nurse
    Inherited runners scored Anthony Swarzak P MIN 16 Brian Duensing P MIN 13 Michael Tonkin P MIN 6 Runners stranded Brian Duensing P MIN 28 Anthony Swarzak P MIN 19 Michael Tonkin P MIN 16 Runs allowed Anthony Swarzak P MIN 48 Brian Duensing P MIN 20 Michael Tonkin P MIN 13 Why Swarzak is looking for employment, Tonkin went to the minors and Duensing should be nervous
  5. old nurse
    What does age start? You look at every other factor and where that person fits on a generic age curve gets thrown out. Parmelee could OPS and play the field pretty much how he has been playing until he is 40. It is not going to happen. If his level of play doesn't improve, he will be out of the league by 30 because there will be somebody cheaper with more upside come along or they were not very good in the first place and got their shot.. From the last few years Twins alone Johnson, Darnell, Thompson Achter, Mastroiani, Nunez, Fryer, Hermann, Florimon, Thomas, Ramirex, Diaomond, Pedro Hernandez, Martis, Tyler Robertson, Albers, Walters, Komatsu, Nisihioka, Luke Hughes, DeVries, Matt Maloney, Manhip, Waldrop, Vasquez, Grey, Burnett, and Perdoma are all highly unlikely to be in a major league uniform when they are 31. They all count against that age curve. You would be hard pressed to say they were out of the league because their skills declined with age. Their skills did not develop further to keep them on a roster. Valencia, Alexi Casilla, Hicks, Pinto, Shaffer, Parmelee and Escobar could all fit that model.
  6. old nurse
    Yes. The age curves are different. They do not mean much. What an individual does can be far different than the average. Would you say you shouldn't extend an outfielder multiple years past the age of 33? You would say makes sense to do one year at a time for a Josh Willingham in hindsight. Torri Hunter on the other hand. produced multiple years past 33. Age alone doesn't mean much. Similar batters by age to Plouffe at 28 are Dave Hollins and Jose Batista. Their career paths from 28 are very divergent. Average for age means nothing.
  7. old nurse
    Do you do single factor analysis in complex situations?
  8. old nurse
    As a guide that is about as accurate as a defensive metric there is decline with age. How much decline is going to vary with each individual. There is nothing definitive about an aging curve. Yes there is an average line there. How wide is the spread of the data plots? As Plouffe has an injury history, it would be more likely for him to be below the curve. If he trains well, eats well, etc, that could bring him above the curve. Dozier plays a position that see wear and tear. Again, there are factors that push above or below the line. What skills age faster? Are those the skills that these guys rely on? Age alone means little.That should be evident from the curves from 2 different eras.
  9. old nurse
    Sveum played only a some games at 2b. After he missed a season with injury he was never the same player, either. Dozier has had 2 years above average play at 2b. Even being inconsistent will make you an above average 2b. Neither is enough to say sign Dozier to a long term contract. 28 and how many years of team control versus the life expectancy of a MI remaining good without chemical preservatives?
  10. old nurse
    This is where the analytics department comes into play. Is there going to be more of an improvement in his offense. If yes then sign
  11. old nurse
    Since I have been called demented on this board a time or two, help me out here. When has there ever been a front loaded contract outside of the Cardinals? The only reason to frontload a Dozier contract is to trade him long before the contract is up.
  12. old nurse
    If they could extend Zimmerman you have a brilliant idea. I would say that is a huge if.
  13. old nurse
    Consider if Santana became league average for AL shortstops the last 5 seasons in BB%(6%) and K% (slightly less than 17%). He would be striking out less, but walking more. In a 400 AB season, it would result in about 16 more balls in play. That would not be enough to offset regression. On the other hand, if his 2013 AA season was indicative of what Santana could do, BA .297, K% 16, BB% 4.1 his BABIP was .353 Less strikouts, but also less walks. Thus it ofsets regression of his BABIP if while stiking out less, he also gets less bases on balls
  14. old nurse
    Schafer was a round 3 pick. It wouldbe unfair to label him a bust. A breakout season is highly unlikely as I do not see in his history where he has been above average as a hitter. What has not been there is not going to happen.
  15. old nurse
    Perkins Garza, Baker, Blackburn all came up through the system rather quickly.. Berrios is doing that now. Gibson would have except for arm issues. Odorizzi may have been called up, but the pitching savvy Rays sent him down the following year. Had Meyer not have had shoulder issues the Twins might have brought him up for September. There are differernt issues for each pitcher. To say that the Twins handling of Meyer represents an overly cautious system is a stretch. The biggest problem in assessing how the Twins handle a drafted pitcher's progression to a major leauge caliber starter is that there was such a dry strech that there is not a reference point.
  16. old nurse
    A HOF pitcher would have more talent than the average pitching coach. I don't think any of them did not have to work at refining their talent. In term of having money inhibiting the desire to work, Molitor made over 40 million in his career,
  17. old nurse
    Wow. The list of bad players signed, extended, traded for or drafted is much much longer than the list of good for last year.
  18. old nurse
    AJ settled for less money, Salty the catcher IIRC did also. The offer to Garza was not lowball. The auction house theory is incorrect
  19. old nurse
    Terry Anderson You question why a GM would exert a little control into the hiring process? Then there is the little thing of the GM is the managers boss. I have had interviews with superiors of the boss. If the role is important enough the supervisor was there.
  20. old nurse
    Do you think Rosatio read about the need for a left fielder and got inspired.
  21. old nurse
    Pretty much all teams do it wrong as with very few exceptions, the person ends up fired.
  22. old nurse
    Here then is another problem. The Twins bullpen pitched almost 500 innings last year. That really wasn't good on a 8 man staff.
  23. old nurse
    My guess would be you do not understand that you don't have the emperical evidence to play a player but you do anyway to develop them. That happened with Koskie, and Hunter. Sometimes you add a player off from a decline year in that you think they have another good year left. They picked up Thome after a couple of down years. It worked well for 2010 IIRC. Empirical evidence has a place, so doesn't thinking a player can do something because they pass your eye test.
  24. old nurse
    On empirical evidence in 2000 he Twins were sure stupid to let that guy playing 3B continue to play there. After 2 years, that guy they had in CF, on empiraclal evidence, should have been moved for someone else. Why did they bother with Thome? Old and washed up. Dozier, Cuddyer. You make the right decisions you are a genius organization. Make the wrong ones, you are fired.
  25. old nurse
    It does not take into account that pitch framing is still not shown to be called evenly across the game . 2 extra strikes in garbage time or low leverage situations is nothing. There was a study done last year in beyond the boxscore that showed on the pitchers that changed teams the WOWY effect for pitchers with a different catcher was .02 difference on the ERA. The predicted value was .04 based on the model you cite. In general the pitch framing is only half as effective as the claim. So yes it is more than zero, but is it significant enough to change outcomes?No studt shows that.
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