old nurse

Wow. The list of bad players signed, extended, traded for or drafted is much much longer than the list of good for last year.

AJ settled for less money, Salty the catcher IIRC did also. The offer to Garza was not lowball. The auction house theory is incorrect

Terry Anderson You question why a GM would exert a little control into the hiring process? Then there is the little thing of the GM is the managers boss. I have had interviews with superiors of the boss. If the role is important enough the supervisor was there.

Do you think Rosatio read about the need for a left fielder and got inspired.

Pretty much all teams do it wrong as with very few exceptions, the person ends up fired.

Here then is another problem. The Twins bullpen pitched almost 500 innings last year. That really wasn't good on a 8 man staff.

My guess would be you do not understand that you don't have the emperical evidence to play a player but you do anyway to develop them. That happened with Koskie, and Hunter. Sometimes you add a player off from a decline year in that you think they have another good year left. They picked up Thome after a couple of down years. It worked well for 2010 IIRC. Empirical evidence has a place, so doesn't thinking a player can do something because they pass your eye test.

On empirical evidence in 2000 he Twins were sure stupid to let that guy playing 3B continue to play there. After 2 years, that guy they had in CF, on empiraclal evidence, should have been moved for someone else. Why did they bother with Thome? Old and washed up. Dozier, Cuddyer. You make the right decisions you are a genius organization. Make the wrong ones, you are fired.

It does not take into account that pitch framing is still not shown to be called evenly across the game . 2 extra strikes in garbage time or low leverage situations is nothing. There was a study done last year in beyond the boxscore that showed on the pitchers that changed teams the WOWY effect for pitchers with a different catcher was .02 difference on the ERA. The predicted value was .04 based on the model you cite. In general the pitch framing is only half as effective as the claim. So yes it is more than zero, but is it significant enough to change outcomes?No studt shows that.

SABR ideas should be put into play in roster construction. When the manager has too much influence that is how you get Delmon Young. WHat SABR ideas should the manager be using I already covered. If there is something you think should be done more I am all eyes as to the explanation of the benefit.

The Dodgers go 3 and out. Mattingly is the fall guy and your scenario just went out the window.

Dependends on what you call SABR theories versus Nick. Any descreption of a pitcher statistics wise in terms of ERA or projected or similar statistics in terms of what shows on a stat sheet is of little use to the manager in preparing the team. Now speed, location types of pitches and their movement, frequency and trends how they throw are of use. If you call those SABR because a lot of that data is collected with technology then you do not have as different of point of view. Similarly for hitters. Owar is of little use other than knowing the batters basic skill level. What pitches (location, speed and type) a batter has trouble with or not, a spray chart would be of use. Again, if the data is collected with technology you might consider it SABR where Nick might not. I have not paid attention to what Dougie Baseball has said. I would think that he does not have that good of access to data on the other team in A ball so he has to be a little more old school in his approach.

Agaim, the assumption is that the pitch framing is likely to happen equally across a game. If it happens less in close games the benefit is less. If fit happens more for strike 1, the effect is less. If it happens more on 3 ball counts, the effect could be the umpire not the framing. If it causes pitchers to throw more out of the zone pitches in the era of pitch counts, the benefit would be less as the guy coming in the 5/6 inning is rarely as good as the starter. The best framer over the worst framer. Debate the benifit by picking having one extreme versus the other. Doumit played 50 games a year at cattcher , Lucroy if uninjured 120-130 for a reason. What is the difference between the best full time catcher and the worse? Even a more fair comparison, what is the difference between the average of the best 3 versus the worse 3.

The skepticism is in the actual effect of pitch framing. The basisi of the numbers used to "prevent" runs assumes it is called evenly throughout the game. Where is the proof?

Because he just interviewed for the job of manager. If he did not want the job why would he intervirew?

I was not aware that Santana and Vargas played o poorly that they showed they did not belong. It is not rushing when they show they belong.

http://www.childrenscancer.org/ The cancer society might be following Brian as they have a story of Zach, who's t-shirt Brian posted today https://twitter.com/BrianDuensing52/status/514438515711836160/photo/1 http://www.childrenscancer.org/main/latest/a_portrait_of_zach_sobiech/

You forgot the bullpen. This year they have gave up 228 runs, good for 7th place. They have the second most IP so far this year, but the Angels in that span have given up 192. Second worse xfip and SIERA

Reality is there was only one pitcher signed, Hughes, that contributed. At some point in time the fans will know what happened to Nolasco's elbow. If you can't prevent runs you need to have a record breaking offense to win. When older players also do not contribute as much as they once did, a franchise can slide back.

Do fans really come out or do not come out depending on who the manager is? The novelty of a new manager will wear off quickly with each game under .500, and much quicker for every game with a win percentage under .450. Other than the NFL, the Twin Cities supports winners and stays away when the team loses. Did attendance change when Goryl then Gardner took over? no. The do no nothing claim is accurate only as to how it reflects on the makeup of the roster. They need to sign or trade for a charismatic player to lead the team if one is not readily appearant from the group of up and coming players. They probably need to sign a top of rotation pitcher. That will get fans exited. A team ERA close to league average would lead to the fans being exited. A team staff ERA still at 5.50 or more and a new manager won't do much for the fan where it matters to Twin's officials. That is paying fans in seats in the restraunts and bars in Target Field. If the Royals are a barometer, it is going to take division titles to get back fans in droves. If the view that seasons of players are wasted because there wasn't a world series championship is the prevalent one then the team is close to dead. History is littered with good groups of players on a team that do not make it to win a the World Series. As much as some poeple chant for leadership change with the Twins, I don't think it will happen on the manager level unless Ryan thinks there is someone who can do the job better. Pohlad is not going to fire Ryan and company unless he figures there is someone out there that can do the job better. Changing the GM does not change the trajectory of the franchise quickly except for Dan Duquette. The teams that have risen up in the standings have had the same GM through a lean time

My origional response probably should have been what do you expect to happen with a different manager with this group of players. Silly me thought the reason to change the manager was to improve the team. Improvements generally are reflected in the w/l column with a lot more under the w column than there was before.The position of manager is not an irrelevant one. It is reduced to such when you fire someone as a symbolic gesture. Again, to use the question, if the manager is irrelevant, what do you care if he is there or not. If the manager is relevant then it should show in w/l. Historically, bad teams are bad no matter who manages them. Bad players are bad players. There were teams that improved after firing a manager. They were high caliber teams. Good players have played better with better managers. Do you believe the Twins have a roster full of good players and what is holding them back is Gardenhire? Do you think the S outfield of Shaffer, Santana, and Somebody else is going to carry you to the chase for the playoffs, much less carry you through the playoffs?

1. Please find anywhere in this thread where I said Anderson needs to be retained. 2 They had 1 great pitcher, 1 good. Recent WS loser pitching staffs and 2006 Twins. Which staff do you want in a playoff series? Wainright, Wacha, Lynn Verlander, Sanchez, Scherzer Wilson, Holland, Harrison or Santana, Radke, Bonser Santana had to be near perfect when the bats choked. He couldn't do it by himself. Radke was good, but not great. When the Twins won in Oakland Radke was great. By 2006 there was nothing left.

Whatever baseball was played by the Twins from 2002-2010 was totally meaningless then? When you look at playoff winning teams and the starting pitching staffs of the Twins I do not see anything that would match up. The teams appeared to be buiilt to win in the regular season, not short season. Perhaps one of the reasons there has been a trade Duensing theme is the 2 playoff starts, and losses.

Go look at the number of Miracle players in Seth's articles. IIRC many of them are players that were not as highly thought of in the begining of the year as they are now. Something right is going on there

Where did that come from? Fire someone for cause not as a symbolic gestures. Slick Gardner seemed clueless at times. When they hired Ray Miller he was suposed to be the next genius from the line of Earl Weaver. For a lot of reasons that did not work. They promoted Kelly. In the late 90's was Kelly any worse of a manager than from 87-92? 2 managers fired for cause, one was kept as teams lost because he wasn't the problem.