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old nurse

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Everything posted by old nurse

  1. old nurse
    Of the 13 or so pitchers that signed one year contracts with new teams after 2012 Lirano and Feldman were really worked out.
  2. old nurse
    10 from MMurphy, 20 from Arcia, 5 from Nunez, 26 from Vargas after he comes up because Mauer can't see straight
  3. old nurse
    Would not argue against that they have entertainment value and give people something to talk about. That pretty much sums up what projections do.
  4. old nurse
    If at the end of the year, as you say, you have to figure out why they were off they have no reliability. From a statistical projection they are useless.
  5. old nurse
    Curiosity here. I wonder why with no reliability and no validity do people with a purported understanding of statistics bother with these projections
  6. old nurse
    Roenecke only pitched for the Twins in 2013, Deduno was done by the middle of 14. Swarzak was long relief, Duensing was lefty, a role Tonkin can't fill. None of Tonkin's win probability numbers look very good. On the other hand he was a late round draft pick. C+ and on the fringe of prospect ratings. Tonkin really has exceeded expectations. The problem is effectiveness. The Twins covet effective at what you do. Tonkin has not been that.
  7. old nurse
    A career era+ of 85 and a FIP over 4 will get other people chances. Also never mind that when some of your list were pitching, Tonkin had just progressed to AA
  8. old nurse
    The comment was a jab at Parker. The actual benefit of pitch framing is debatable as there was one study showing that it was not consistently called by inning nor pitch count and by score of the game. Somebody with too much time and no life could replicate that study again.
  9. old nurse
    I read once that BABIP normalizes out for a pitcher in about 1000 innings. Hopefully your bad pitcher never gets to that. On the other hand, a league average pitcher for BABIP can have terrible results, Kevin Correa. or be very good like Shields. Porcello got a 4/82 contract with a career BABIP of .317
  10. old nurse
    Vargas still has one option left as reported different places. Arcia has 853 PA at the MLB level. It should give the team a good idea where the problems lie for Arcia with a bat. There should be more than enough AB in the spring to get an idea where Arcia is at. Quentin probably will need all of ST and a little time in AAA to get back, if he does. The only report I have seen is that he says his knees feel better. That really is not terribly encouraging. On a team that had only 2 players OPS over .760, and one was a pitcher, there is a need for some power.
  11. old nurse
    Is it the catcher, Mauer or Suzuki, or the pitcher Gibson . Mike Fast already had no life. If there still is doubt that it is the catcher's action that gets the call then the pitch framer wonks did not do a very good job of convincing people.
  12. old nurse
    Pressly 101 games, Roeneke 68 games, Tonkin 60 games, Aaaron Thompson, 48 games, Tyler Robertson 42 games, Graham 36 games, O'Rourke 28 games, Hoey 26 games, Waldrop 24 games. Nope, the Twins never give a chance to the young pitcher
  13. old nurse
    Plantar facitis is such a career altering disease
  14. old nurse
    What is the Twin equivalent of Dickerson? Kepler? 2 fer with Rosario and Vargas?
  15. old nurse
    Pettit and Rodney were the only relievers not to sign multi year deals. Villanueva did, but he is, and reportedly wants to be, a spot starter, Unless you gave a player essentially 2 years pay for one, they are not going to sign for one year if they are good. Prove it players and players wanting to stay on the same team sign for one. Clippard is still available. Made 8 million last year.Ego would say he does not want to go backwards too far on a contract. His problem is he didn't have a 8 million sort of year. Great candidate fora one year contract, but he would probably hold out until just before camp starts to settle for a one year contract. Even then he would try to find a team he could close for. The Twins rank low on that unless there is a great sales job about Perkin's health late in a season and GM's remember late season pitching.
  16. old nurse
    For those who are expected to be rbi producers yes it would be an ok measurement. Other players are effective without driving in runs, examples would be like Dee Gordon or Blackmon. Your typical top of the lineup batters Relief pitcher effectiveness would not be effected by wins. Rather than wins in win+whip perhaps an inverse of blown saves and losses would be more appropriate way to measure.
  17. old nurse
    Was the list of available free agents a way to say Abad isn't bad in comparison to what is left. There must be confidence in the numbers from AAA or AA that would parlay to major league success
  18. old nurse
    Your description looks like the metric is a measure of gullibility. Sort of like opsbi
  19. old nurse
    Ztmmerman, Upton, Iglesias,McCann and J D Martinez are what is young and good about the team. Age and injuries determine the rest of the team. Holy crapshoot Batman.
  20. old nurse
    Radcliff has 13 names. Perkins, May, and Fien are the only one certain to be here longer than this year, Jepson will be a free agent after this year. There are those who think May should be in the rotation. Injuries do happen. That means you are counting on a 50% success rate from your minor league players. You are counting on 2 of them being the back end of your bullpen, and 4 of them if you really are going to be a contender. That is a lot of faith in your relievers in the minors.
  21. old nurse
    The likelihood of Nolasco getting cut and thus a sunk cost is small. Cutting Nolasco for a cheaper player would cost more than the other player's salary. Spring training is a ways away. Given the number of quality unsigned free agents out there, the demand for trades is not there. The mediocre free agent is cheaper than Nolasco. When that dries up, teams may start sniffing at Nolasco
  22. old nurse
    A Sano-cam and a web page so these people can watch?
  23. old nurse
    The Twins are a competitive team as they stand. Unless injury and severe regression hit no one would mistake them for Cincinnati, the Philies or the Fresno Grizzlies. Unless there is some serious progression, ALCS tickets are something another team is going to print. They have a lot of above average players. Unless Sano or Buxton steps up, they have no studs. The progression of the non arbitration eligible players this year will be the key for the success. One or two holes are easier to fill at the trade deadline than the team of question marks.
  24. old nurse
    IIRC Burton was effective for a couple of years. Burrows was used as bench player and was gone by May. His spring training numbers S Burroughs .333 17 42 2 doubles, one single would have given you some hope. Kubel had a good first month before father time discovered he was playing baseball again, Abad for his career has been better in low leverage situations. I can't prove the Twins know this, but if I can find the statistics, I would think it would be reasonable to think the Twins know this.
  25. old nurse
    The only similar recent history with a pitcher on a minor league contract with a ST invite was Guerrier. He did not get to the 25 man roster until May. I think he replaced Pelfrey on the roster.
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