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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    I couldn't find an ideal place to post this thought. Given the prospects the Twins have who are near ready, and their skills, it may be an ideal time to trade Luis Arraez. There are still three years of service time remaining, he's coming off a batting champion and Silver Slugger season and he's young (25 all of next season). I don't think his value will get much higher. Two prospects (Martin and Julien) are close to being ready. Both supply speed and Julien has power potential. Both guys look like OBP will be part of their game and will need a place to play. In addition to Martin and Julien, the top two position player prospects (Lewis and Lee) are also infielders. Luis Arraez is elite at what he does. He takes great at-bats, seldom strikes out and will probably be a .300 hitter for the rest of the decade. He also showed he is reliable in the field. His defensive numbers at both second and first were good last year. I believe if he played regularly at third, he'd be fine there. There are things Arraez is not--he's not going to hit for much power and he will never be speedy. In addition, he's dealt with a lot of leg injuries for a 24-year old. Finally, his second half last year was pedestrian. His walk rate was only about half of the rate in the first half. He also had an OPS of only .685 versus left handed pitching. An Arraez trade would have to net the Twins quite a bit--proven MLB talent or elite prospects. It also would be a hard sell to the fan base, so I don't know if it will happen, but if I'm the Twins' brass I'd certainly consider it.
  2. stringer bell
    I believe it was the first time they have a Silver Slugger for a utility player.
  3. stringer bell
    I think JD might be toast. I'd be hesitant about signing Haniger, given his injury history and the Twins recent history with acquiring soon-to-be injured players. Drury is intriguing, given his versatility, and success last year.
  4. stringer bell
    The stuff is there. That is probably true for a great number of pitchers. And he had a great half season to keep his confidence up. Some of his struggles were regression to the mean--he was extraordinarily successful with the Orioles.
  5. stringer bell
    IIRC, Ober didn’t hit the IL until the tail end of 2021, then only so someone else got a shot to start a late September game. The Twins limited his innings, mostly because due to injury and COVID, he hadn’t thrown many innings in the preceding years. I do agree that future acquisitions should prioritize pitchers who project as durable.
  6. stringer bell
    It seems most clubs are reducing their 40-man roster to the low 30s to make room to protect minor leaguers from Rule V and sign free agents.
  7. stringer bell
    Not sure if commenting on a blog entry bumps it, but I do want to again say that Martin's skill set is a fit for the Twins needs, as supported by his performance in the AFL. He's hit, stolen bases and played multiple positions, including center field. I hope he gets plenty of run in Spring Training and puts himself in the conversation for promotion to the majors early in 2023.
  8. stringer bell
    Not sure I agree. If their OBP is "pretty similar" as you state, Julien certainly profiles as a superior power threat and thus would project to have a much higher OPS. Personally, I'm not sure if Julien can sustain such high walk rates and maintain his elite OBP, but if he does, he's going to be a good offensive MLB player.
  9. stringer bell
    There is a lot more talent available for ‘23 than there was for ‘22. I think that one more proven arm needs to be added and it would be good if he was a lefty (Cleveland continues to show more vulnerability to lefties than righties). In addition, the Twins would be well-served to have a guy or two who can go multiple innings.
  10. stringer bell
    I'll answer for Game &-91--part of the trade package for Pablo Lopez.
  11. stringer bell
    I think Gordon is a better outfielder than infielder. I don’t think he’s great in center field, but he’s fine in left. I think Larnach and Kirilloff (if healthy) are major league hitters and capable fielders and Kirilloff would be a better first baseman than Arraez. K & L just need to prove it on the field and they haven’t to this point.
  12. stringer bell
    I guess that if Arraez had played more games at first, I would have felt like he should have won the Gold Glove, but he only played 65 games at first.
  13. stringer bell
    The Twins allowed only 48 unearned runs, fifth in MLB. While the Twins were 19th in earned runs allowed, they were 14th in overall runs allowed. The average number of runs allowed is 694, the Twins allowed 684. Presuming official scoring is consistent, the Twins defense saved runs over an average defense.
  14. stringer bell
    Polanco was good last year and if he’s healthy, he will be fine at second. The Twins allowed fewer unearned than most. Team ERA was higher than the mean, but runs allowed was below the mean. The team they put out on Opening Day was pretty good defensively. Replacements not so much.
  15. stringer bell
    Coaching is part of the base running problem, but personnel is even more of a problem. Whatever position players the Twins add should be good base runners and expert base stealers. In addition base running needs to be emphasized more than in the past. On the defensive side, both the pitchers and catchers will need to work to limit steals. I think the preponderance of right handed pitchers makes a difference in stolen bases allowed, so unless there is more turnover in the pitching staff, the Twins will be at a disadvantage allowing SBs.
  16. stringer bell
    I don’t think it is at all fair to compare Jeffers and Kepler as hitters. Jeffers has a grand total of 591 plate appearances spread out over parts of three seasons. On Opening Day he will be 25 years old. Defensively, I think it’s a mixed bag. The raw numbers of throwing are substandard, and he had quite a few passed balls and allowed plenty of wild pitches. I don’t know where I can find “Catcher ERA”, but I would venture a guess that Jeffers was better (by a lot) than Sánchez and that the won-loss record when Jeffers started at catcher was better than for Sánchez. To me, that would be a function of his ability to call a game.
  17. stringer bell
    Ideally a time-sharing plan should be in place. Whichever catcher is going better should get more time. It also would be good to have a left handed hitter to share time with Jeffers. I think Narvaez, Barnhart or Vasquez would be excellent compliments to Jeffers. Castro has been injured a lot since leaving Minnesota and he will play most of next season at 36 years old.
  18. stringer bell
    Do remember that a catcher has won a batting title since Mauer—Buster Posey won the NL batting championship in 2012.
  19. stringer bell
    I’m mostly a Jeffers believer. He obviously has some flaws (low BA, throwing), but he seems to be a really good receiver and has potential at the plate. I think the wise and prudent thing to do is to sign a complementary catcher—someone who has platoon advantages against RH pitching with a good rep for throwing out base stealers. In my mind that player is Narváez. Both catchers will see plenty of time, even a clear #1 catcher would be behind the plate no more than 2/3 of the time. I don’t know if anyone in the Twins’ system is ready to be a third catcher ready to shuttle back and forth from St. Paul to Minneapolis, but that role also needs to be filled.
  20. stringer bell
    Two thoughts in response to this post. 1) The best athletes/defenders for the Twins were pretty good on defense. That would include Kepler, who most people are ready to jettison and would also include retaining Correa. Despite metrics that put the Twins slightly below average in pitching, they were slightly below the mean in allowing runs. 2) Falvey can and maybe should get lots of criticism, but he has been willing to take risks. The trades for Kiner-Falefa, Paddack and Gio and Sanchez were bold and contained risk.
  21. stringer bell
    I agree that having a pitcher better than Sonny Gray is a reasonable goal and would be a large step toward better outcomes in future seasons. There are not a lot of top guys available this off season. I think Rodon would be the best fit of the lot and it helps that he isn't ancient (turns 30 in December) and throws left handed. Rodon's injury history probably needs to be considered, but he worked the most innings he has ever pitched this past season.
  22. stringer bell
    I agree with much of what you are saying. Further, it was an embarrassment to be in contention and have an outfield consisting of three of (green rookie) Wallner, Gordon, Celestino and Jake Cave. What I don't agree with is that the Twins will be without their top five outfielders as much as they were this year. I don't expect all five that were out for the stretch run in 2022 (Buxton, Kepler, Garlick, Larnach and Kirilloff) to stay healthy all year or be ready for a stretch run, but I would expect more than zero to be basically healthy for that duration. Saying that, I do expect better health for the outfield than 2022. Having an upgraded replacement for Garlick and having two or three capable outfielders in reserve (Gordon, Celestino, Wallner) should be enough depth to have something left at the end of the season. It just hasn't happened the last two or three years.
  23. stringer bell
    Referring to the OP, yes the Twins could win with Iglesias, if he’s the eighth or ninth best regular, hitting somewhere between seventh and ninth in the order. The Twins need to improve offensively and in the pitching department. If they do and have average health, they will be pretty good. I agree that the team needs better production from the outfield, but a return to health isn’t out of the question.
  24. stringer bell
    Until the free agent shortstop's $$$$ are added!
  25. stringer bell
    Hamilton hasn't been trusted to hit in some time. Yes, he supplies elite base running and really good defense, but he really isn't a big league hitter any more, if he ever was. He was an ideal guy to add as a 28th player and come in to run for one of the Twins several slow runners. They really didn't get many chances to use Hamilton when he could change the game. Hamilton is a free agent. I doubt that he will get a major league contract.
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