stringer bell

Post-All Star game, Arraez hit .289 with a .326 OBP. His second half OPS+ was 103. I love what Arraez provides, but his overall value this year and going forward is good, but not great. He’s a good player and I commend him for going out at less than 100% and learning a new position. I don’t think he’s untouchable, but it should take a lot to move him.

I wonder if they don't go with Gio at shortstop next year until Lewis/Lee are ready. Gio played a lot of shortstop for the Evil Empire down the stretch last year and was slated to be their starting shortstop until the Twins traded for Urshela and gave them Kiner-Falefa. I really don't like the idea of weakening two spots in the infield defense (third and short) even temporarily, getting both Miranda and Urshela in the lineup is a good plan. That would mean either Arraez or Kirilloff plays first base. Gio had a very good year and stayed on the field. He earned his pay raise and the free agent pickings at third base are pretty meager. The Twins should definitely bring him back for his last arbitration season.

Fulmer has had a decent year, but hasn't been anything special since his trade to Minnesota. The Twins don;t have much history of paying free agent relievers. I doubt they make a serious move for Fulmer unless it is a bargain. Lopez has been a disappointment, although I can see his stuff being very effective. Since he is under team control for next year, I think he comes back and is the principal setup guy, probably getting closing chances when Duran isn't available. Add Thielbar, Jax, Moran and a healthy Alcala and the bullpen is in much better shape at the start of 2023 than it was in 2022.

Smeltzer had over two years of service time going into 2022. It might be close, but I think he also is eligible for arbitration and could be non-tendered or offered a minor league contract a la Jake Cave in 2022.

Aaron Sanchez should be a free agent after this season. He already had over six years of service going into the year. Edit to add: Sanchez was added to the roster today and Megill placed on the IL. It shouldn't make any difference as far as to his impending free agency at the end of the season.

I think the Twins will try to pull the plug on Garlick. I believe he will be arbitration eligible and they will non-tender him. Why cut him loose? He is a specialist in an era of short benches and he suffered three separate disabling injuries. He’ll be 31 before spring training starts and it doesn’t figure that he’ll be healthier or more productive than he was this year. That is not to say that the Twins might not offer him a minor league contract with an opportunity to win a spot this spring. He also still has an option IIRC.

You all are saying Pagán should be DFAed, technically it is non-tendered. The same with Cave and (I think) Stashak. If they are eligible for arb, the way they are separated from the club is non-tender of a contract.

Good write up. To expect all seven of these cases to continue is pessimistic, but to expect most or all to resolve favorably for the player and the team is unrealistic optimism. I guess the team has to plan for continuing injury problems for those listed (I’d also add Trevor Larnach), but give them a chance to return. My guesses on a return to health are 1) Lewis 2) Maeda, who will be 35 shortly after Opening Day 3) Buxton, but it’s always something 4) Mahle 5) Winder 6) Kirilloff 7) Paddack. I, too, am most disappointed about Kirilloff’s continuing wrist problems. He could be an elite hitter, with good power, but he has to be to swing the bat without significant pain.

Gio is a good third baseman. Do remember also that he was the Yankees’ primary shortstop down the stretch in 2021. Could he fill in until Lewis is ready? Gio is also part of the problem. He is a plodding runner and grounds into a ton of double plays. The Twins absolutely need to have more team speed and better base running. If they don’t move Urshela, Miranda and Arraez getting runners on and too often unable to score them, waiting for homers that don’t come will continue to frustrate the fan base. Urshela isn’t ancient, but he is over 30. We are most likely seeing the best he will be. I’d like to see him come back just because every year shows good players will get their at-bats. $10 million isn’t my money. I just don’t think keeping Gio can or should be justification to improve their pitching staff.

I think 6 players for the four corner positions is the minimum given the recent injury issues of most of the guys. I really believe in Kirilloff’s ability, but much like Buck, he’s got to show he can stay healthy. There can’t be too much talent and playing time will figure itself out.

What contract? Cave is up for arbitration this offseason and the Twins could (and I believe should) non-tender him.

Gordon hasn't looked comfortable at shortstop. Honestly, I don't think he's looked that good at either second or short, although second base is a far less demanding position. It's all SSS, so I think the eye test and the lack of time in those positions when the season was on the line tell me that Nick's "D" isn't well-regarded. Palacios has played sporadically since being recalled when Polanco went on the IL, but he's 0-33. He had a nice year at St. Paul, but his total lack of hitting really makes counting on him a huge gamble. I actually wonder if the Twins will keep him on the 40-man.

It’s official. The Twins have been eliminated from postseason play. Seattle’s win knocks both Minnesota and Chicago from AL postseason possibilities.

Cave has had a pretty good run since being recalled. I really don't think he has a place on the 2023 Twins, but some team could pick him up as a fourth outfielder.

Martin's star has dimmed for sure this season, but he could come back with a good performance in the AFL and a good start in 2023. There was a reason why he was considered a top prospect and good performance could bring back the luster. As far as being an outfielder, Martin played almost as much outfield as he did infield in 2021 (IIRC) and he has played some in the OF this year as well. He's not a stranger to the outfield as Gordon was last year.

I don’t assume Arraez will be the principal first baseman next year. Miranda and Kirilloff would be preferred options to Arraez at first and I maintain Arraez is quite satisfactory at second.

I don’t know how big of an upgrade he might be. He does seem to offer more speed and base running. His numbers don’t show it, but his skill set would seem to also indicate more OBP skills.

Some time after the All-Star break, I was pondering how the Twins could fit all of their quality major league position players on the active roster. A few weeks later, baseball immortals Mark Contreras and Caleb Hamilton were on the big club. Fast forward to a crucial five-game series in Cleveland and the Twins were starting Bailey Ober, Josh Winder (both coming off injuries) and having Louie Varland make his second major league start and Jake Cave and Gilberto Celestino were considered regular starters. The season unraveled quickly and now the Twins look likely to finish below .500 and in third place in the weak AL Central. How did it happen? I have several answers--there have been enduring issues all year exacerbated by a rash of injuries, most of them season-ending. Offense underperformed almost all year. Going back to the start of the season, after a rocky first couple of weeks, the Twins offense was sufficient to win a lot of game despite never scoring runs commensurate with their underlying numbers. Right now, the Twins are 18th in runs scored despite being 11th in OPS and 12th in homers. They have often been futile with runners in scoring position and they have been a terrible running bases as a team. I have seen many posters state that the team is terrible at fundamentals. I would submit that all teams draw their fans ire for not advancing runners and "beating the shift". Part of these problems is the way the Twins are built. They lack team speed and their is a lot of swing and miss in their collective game. With the changes made to limit homers, the Twins (IMHO) have suffered disproportionately. Pitching regressed after overperforming early. The Twins seized first place in late April and held on to the top spot for most of the season bolstered by a pitching staff that performed better than expected. Despite seemingly having at least one and usually two or more guys in their rotation that were locks to go no more than five innings, they won a lot of games and obvious weaknesses at the back end of the bullpen were not evident in the win-loss record. Things unraveled here in slow motion. The failure of anyone but Jhoan Duran in late innings cost games (particularly to Cleveland). The extra innings assigned to the bullpen showed the lack of depth that so many short starts demanded. Back to statistics--the Twins currently are right in the middle of total runs allowed stats. Underlying stats (WHIP, Opponents BA and OPS and BB and K numbers) come out slightly below the mean. I think team defense has been slightly better than average, which has helped keep runs allowed acceptable. Injuries (oh my!). The Twins lead the AL in total man-games on the Injured List. They went into the season with one player slated to miss time, so it isn't like there were a bunch of players already on the IL. Some of the injuries could be expected and put on the front office. The Twins obtained several pitchers with injury issues and this season have come up snake eyes with most of them missing significant time. There have been plenty of position player injuries as well. Regular players Ryan Jeffers, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler have all missed significant portions of the season. Carlos Correa also missed over 20 games with COVID and a badly bruised finger. We all know Buxton hasn't made it through a season without spending time on the IL. The other guys would figure to be healthier than they have this year. Dick Bremer characterized the Twins as developing a "slow leak" from June through August. The leak has been accelerated in the month of September and injuries are a factor in that. That said, even without the injuries, the Twins' flaws probably were too big to win the division. The club exhausted their depth and seeing Jermaine Palacios, Mark Contreras, Caleb Hamilton, Sandy Leon, Aaron Sanchez, and (second half) Devin Smeltzer "perform" in key situations just shows that the Twins have scraped bottom. I think some roster turnover is necessary. Among the position players, they need more guys who make contact, are better base runners and who have more speed. They need more left-right balance in corner outfielders. The front office needs to adjust their focus and bring in more durable players. It should be noted that the position players they brought in (Urshela, Sanchez and Correa) have been basically healthy. The problem has been with the pitchers. I think there is too much talent to tear it down. If the club fails to compete next year, it is probably time to try something else, starting at the top. It won't be easy to win the Central next year, but there needs to be significant progress and better health.

I think Martin’s skill set gives him a path to the major leagues. He has good speed, positional flexibility and on-base skills. With all the left handed outfielders the Twins have, there’s a pretty big void in right handed corners who could fill center field. I don’t know if he’ll be considered as a shortstop, but that he can help in the infield is a bonus. He’ll play next season at 24 years old and the Twins can hope for huge steps forward starting with his time in the AFL.

I think there’s a real possibility that Smeltzer will be looking for work this offseason. Unless there is a medical explanation, he has fallen off dramatically and doesn’t look like he will get another chance with the Twins. If hard feelings exist, it is likely Smeltzer will elect to be a free agent if he is designated for assignment.

Does Woods-Richardson have to be added to the 40-man roster this winter? If so, sure, bring him up for a start against Chicago. If not, I guess his debut will have to wait until 2023. He is finishing the season strong and healthy with the Saints. A reason for optimism in 2023 and beyond.

Noting the rehabbing major league players—Larnach is done for the year with a wrist injury and Polanco most likely also done due to his lingering knee injury. Along with the continuing hamstring issues for Arraez, it appears second base will continue to be manned by Gordon and Palacios for the remainder of the Twins season.

I have a lot of thoughts about Buxton. I don't think they fit in categories very well. First, what I want to see (and hope is possible) is 120+ games of 2021 Byron Buxton. He won games with his glove, arm, legs and bat. He was a force on the base paths, even though he wasn't among the league SB leaders, he was elite in center field and he had an OPS over 1.000 with a batting average above .300. Buxton put up a higher WAR than this year in about 40 fewer games. Secondly, my observation beginning in April of 2022 was that Buxton wasn't fully healthy beginning with the ill-fated slide in Boston on the first road trip. I am not sure that the proper path was to try to manage the injury from that point, but it was the course chosen by the Twins. In the end, it didn't work. In the end, using Buxton with frequent days off got him into more games, but made him less valuable. Thirdly, my hope for Buxton's future is that none of the injuries he has suffered will limit him going forward. The knee will be scoped and I would expect that he can get back close to 100% from that. I am not as sure about the hip injury. If he can rehab from that to some semblance of what he has been, he should be good to go in 2023 and his contract may yet be a bargain. Every season that Buxton is dogged by injury is another piece of reality that he will never be the superstar that he might have been. By all appearances, he works hard and does all that he can to get and stay on the field. He just hasn't been able to hold it together and sadly, may never get to play a full season with good health.

The MRIs done on Mahle's shoulder have revealed no significant issues. I don't know if that is "bordering on toast". I also don't think Gray will be traded nor will he request a trade. Taking a quote or two from him at his worst moment doesn't mean that there are irreconcilable differences. Look, there have been multiple injuries seemingly leaving a shell of the team by September the last four years. I think Rocco and the front office have to look at this and at least make revisions in how they are using their pitchers, if not change their plan. I do think there is enough major league talent to contend and I don't want every over-30 player traded or released. They need to figure out a way to have pitchers and position players more healthy in the stretch run. It may be that a team with a centerpiece of Byron Buxton will always be too fragile to compete.

No. Can't agree with that. All three are currently on the Injured List and their trade value is at a low point, with the possible exception of Gray. I would say the value of Berrios and Rogers was pretty high when they were dealt.