stringer bell

Given the self-imposed restraints on payroll, I thought Falvey/Levine did a very good job of adding depth to a talented roster that contains a lot of durability question marks. Among the position players, backup roles will be held by veteran players who can step in and there is a deep bullpen. The starting rotation is going to lean very heavily on three guys in their late 20s, and if you are going to lean heavily on a player of a certain age, that is the age range for it. If the Twins can get 80-90% of what they got from their starters in 2023, the club will be in good shape. Ownership OTOH really needs to take a seminar in Public Relations. Promising things you don't deliver is a sure way to invite disdain from the fan base. That was done with the new TV deal. Many or most of us will have to wait a year for a more permanent solution and that solution is probably going to cost more than most of us want to pay. Whatever "right sizing" (or rightsizing) is, fans aren't going to like the picture that is being painted while other franchises in comparable markets spend far more than the Twins do.

The oldest player last year (Rich Hill) is four days older than my son, but two and a half years younger than my eldest daughter. So, yes, they are all kids to me, as well. When a player makes the big leagues who is younger than my grandson, then I'll really feel old.

DeSclafani was only available for $4M because of the heightened injury risk. I still am skeptical that he will get through even the first quarter of the season, but I think that if he does, he’ll be a steal for what the Twins are paying him.

Supposedly minor injuries to Thielbar (hamstring) and DeSclafani (elbow) delaying their throwing programs.

Not a surprise. I would hope that he can be ready, but it was always a gamble that he would stay healthy.

CJ Cron, a member of the Bomba Squad, signed a minor league contract with the Red Sox. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/red-sox-agree-to-minor-league-deal-with-c-j-cron.html

Just to show I'm not blind to it, AK was charged with two errors today in the game against Atlanta, one a throw and the other a missed pickoff throw.

Edouard Julien will play second base the most in 2024 IMHO and he will hit well enough that his defensive deficiencies aren't noticed much. To be fair Julien improved at second a great deal on the major league stage. He doesn't look smooth and may never look the part of a good defender, but he already is adequate. Once upon a time, the Twins had a bat-first second baseman named Todd Walker. Walker hit well for the Twins, peaking with a .316 batting average (118 OPS+) in 1998. The manager was never satisfied with Walker's defense. It's too bad that Walker was not born 25 years later. His defense would play much better with no shifts and no hard slides on double play turns. IMHO, Julien is very similar. They are both left handed hitting SEC players, whose defense is suspect. Because second base is easier to play now, Julien might be able to stick there for several seasons. Julien's bat is probably good enough to be a DH or first baseman. Keeping him at second might be a luxury, but having him available there is an asset. I don't know when Brooks Lee will make his debut. I see he's playing third base today after starting one game at shortstop. To my knowledge, he hasn't play at all at second base, but as stated above, playing second now is a lot easier than it was 25 years ago. If he's as good as advertised, Lee will make his way to the majors and force the Twins to determine who to play and where.

The Twins have acquired three distressed assets in the last few weeks--DeSclafani, Margot, and Santana--who either weren't really a fit for their new team or who didn't have a job. Getting all three for the cost of $13.5M is (IMHO) shrewd, but kind of is the definition of dumpster diving or maybe shopping in the scratch and dent section. Injuries are the main concern for Margot and DeSclafani, while Santana is facing off with Father Time. I'm hoping all three win their battles, but the realist in me sees one or two flailing and mostly failing.

No and no.

First, let me say that I don't really trust any defensive metrics to paint a picture of a player's defense. Now, on Santana, he put up 2.7 WAR according to BBRef--that rather lofty number was fueled by the measure that he saved 11 runs on defense. In his entire career at first base, he's saved 23 runs according to the DRS metric, so almost half of his DRS came in his age 37 season. To me, that sounds like a huge outlier and not a true representation of his value or his defense. Santana hit 23 homers and drove in 86 runs. To me that counts for something. A large part of that something is that he played almost every day and hit in the middle of the order for both teams that employed him last season. The .723 OPS as a left handed hitter was his best in several seasons. It was fueled by more power against right handed pitching than he had accomplished in several years. Still, his numbers versus righties are clearly inferior to Alex Kirilloff. I don't expect Carlos Santana to be an amazing defensive first baseman at age 38, but he has always been solid (above average) and I think too much credit is given to defense at first base. So, on balance, I doubt what the Twins will get from Santana is much above a replacement player and much of that will be from above average hitting against left handed pitching. Kirilloff, in a pretty small sample size, showed he can hit big league right handed pitching, with a hint that he can be much more than above average. Yes, he should be in the lineup against every right handed pitcher as long as he is healthy. When Rocco decides to give regular like Kepler, Correa, Lewis and Buxton a half day off against a right handed pitcher, then Kirilloff should and probably will be the first baseman. I would guess on Opening Day, he will DH and Santana will be at first base. Kirilloff's defensive metrics last year were every bit as subpar as Satana's were good. I don't see why AK can't be at least an average defensive first baseman and I'll continue to believe that his poor defense last year was either an outlier or a result of playing with and recovering from injury. Now, what I am gnashing my teeth about already is the scenario where Kirilloff is at first base and the opponent brings in a lefty in the middle innings. There's probably a 75% chance that Santana pinch hits for AK until or unless Kirilloff shows immense improvement in a small sample size against lefties. The flip side is that Kirilloff will hit for Santana somewhere between seldom and never and seldom is on it's way out of town. Alex might hit for the DH on occasion, perhaps Margot, but he will most likely get pinch hit for much more than he pinch hits. To summarize, Kirilloff is likely to be strictly platooned, but Santana is not. Asking the 38 year old to duplicate his season last year is a big lift and unless injury clears the spot, there will be precious little chance for 26-year-old Alex Kirilloff to prove he's more than a platoon bat.

The only unsettled spot would be the last guy in the bullpen. Staumont has the most experience, but there are a lot of guys that can make a case for that spot. Alcalá and Funderburk being at the front of the line if someone disappoints or is injured.

We've had variations of this discussion for a while. The Twins had three young left handed hitting guys that hammered right handed pitching. All three were dramatically less effective against left handers. Resting LH hitters against the occasional southpaw makes sense, but automatically benching them no matter how they've been going might be an overreaction. Probably the thing that bothered many of us most was early pinch hitting for Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner--often out of the game by the fifth inning. If the Twins are going to have four left handed hitting regulars, maybe two and sometimes three could/should be on the bench versus a lefty, but I would hope that all would get more shots than they were given in 2023. Kepler's usage is what I would hope the other guys get in the coming year. He wasn't strictly platooned, but he wasn't in the lineup frequently with a left handed starter on the mound. Max had close to 500 plate appearances and 80% were against right handers. I can excuse Baldelli for going to right handed options last year because, by and large, the right handed hitters did their job, especially compared to what the left handed hitters produced. Secondly, Farmer, Solano and Willi Castro were superior defensive options to Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner respectively. Going with the better defender in the late innings when you have a lead is solid strategy.

Miranda was shut down from a shoulder problem that first surfaced in Spring Training. It was said when he was shut down for the year that he never really got through the pain and stiffness. While his poor hitting can't be 100% excused, the injury should also be considered when looking at his 2023 season. A year earlier, he had burned through AAA hitting better than anyone in the Twins' system IIRC.

Pop ups--I know you mentioned it earlier, but he caught them didn't he? I think a guy like Alex, who has a lot of experience in the outfield as well, should be able to handle infield flies with more work on how they often come back towards the field. As far as some of the nuanced plays, yes some guys always seem to struggle, but that wasn't Kirilloff's rep at all, so maybe it's a bit of an outlier. To be honest, I remember Solano chasing more balls he shouldn't than Kirilloff. I watched AK pretty intently in spring training of 2020 before COVID hit, mostly doing drills. He looked more than comfortable to my eyes and did make the scoops and fielded grounders routinely. Actually the only game action I saw of him that spring was in Clearwater. He ran down a pop fly that day and scooped a couple of throws. I don't know if any balls were hit on the ground to him. In limited time at first base in '21 and '22, Kirilloff posted satisfactory defensive metrics. Last year, for whatever reason, they were very much subpar. Why would a 25-year old suddenly get that much worse at his position? I think if it is more than an outlier, it could well be his recuperation from two surgeries and the rehab the went with it and perhaps the should was a direct reason late in the 2023 season, I don't know. I've also stated that left handed throwers have advantages at first base. They can stretch a little further on the outfield side and throws to second and third are easier, as are cutoffs. Bringing in Santana should send AK a message that he needs to work on his defense. I really don't like seeing youngish guys relegated to DHing if there isn't a limiting injury. I hope he claims the first base job full time and I think he's capable of that, if healthy.

I guess I got the months wrong. I know Miranda wore down late in the 2022 season. I was responding to a post that said that Severino was ahead of Miranda, the point being that hitting well in the majors is pretty significant compared to what a player put up in AA/AAA, especially when offense went pretty crazy in Triple A last year.

Part of who is playing on a given day is health, part of it is matchups. None of the Twins left handed hitters had reverse platoon splits, but they faced several left handed pitchers who were weaker against left handed hitters. If you dig deeper, it may be that the all-right handed lineups were up against guys who were elite in 2023 and hence the Twins chances would be worse than facing a run-of-the-mill guy. I think there are too many variables to just say that a left handed bat or two should be inserted.

Overall evaluation isn't based only on last season. The most significant stats posted (IMHO) were what Miranda put up in 2022 in a pennant race when he was probably the team's best hitter is July and August.

If Margot is close to 100% after recovering from his knee injury, he's a really good player to have in the role for which the Twins are slotting him. He would provide excellent defense and about league average with the bat, and better against left handed pitching. While I really want to see what Austin Martin can do, it makes sense to proceed with a veteran player as the backup CF and platoon LF. It will be interesting to see how committed the Twins are to the veteran guys they have acquired at bargain rates (Santana $5.25M, DeSclafani $4M, and now Margot $4M). When they had $11M invested in Gallo, they held on to him, Vázquez and his $10M got a majority of starts at catcher until the playoffs, but these guys are getting less than half what Vázquez and Gallo were making last year. I would hope the leash won't be as long in 2024.

It is pretty certain that to start the season Santana will be the first baseman most of the time. If the Twins are facing a right hander in March/April, it looks like Kirilloff will DH most of the time and Smooth will be at first base. As the season wears on, I'm hopeful things will change. First of all, I'm sure Rocco will rotate several through the DH role, in which case I presume AK starts at first and Santana rides the pine. Secondly, I'm hopeful that Kirilloff hits well enough that he's a must in the lineup versus right handers and he's good enough versus lefties that he isn't pinch hit for automatically and maybe starts some games against southpaws. It has been pointed out widely that Kirilloff was not a good defender at first base last year. I've said it a few times and I'll say it again that there is no reason why he can't be at least average at first base and probably much better than that. There were no red flags about his first base defense as he ascended to the majors and he looked good there in cameos in '21 and '22. Maybe it was something to do with injuries that he was playing with, maybe it was random, I don't know. I'll also state that I have a bias about first basemen being over six feet tall and prefer them to be left handed. Carlos Santana's defensive numbers spiked positively in 2023 according to FanGraphs. Why would a guy suddenly become elite at age 37 when his numbers previously were merely above average? I think a big part of that might be randomness, as well. That said, if Kirilloff really is limited with the glove at first base, it is nice to have somebody who has been solid at first base for a decade available.

Well no. Willi is the Twins best returning defender from 2023 according to runs saved (and my eyeball test). He can take center for Buxton to DH, left for Wallner or Kepler to DH, second for Julien to DH or third for Lewis to DH. Same idea, but I doubt Willi is the DH more than once in a blue moon.

What nagging injury are you speaking of? According to reports from Fort Myers, Kirilloff is a full-go now at the start of spring training. Santana will be 38 on Eclipse Day and a lot of sand has gone through the hourglass. If Kirilloff isn't healthy again for some or all of the season, it well may be that Santana gets the bulk of the playing time at first base. After all, Kirilloff is twelve years younger than Santana, but does have a significantly longer injury history. I'd love, love, love to see AK get 450-500 at-bats this year and post numbers good enough to plan for him to be the primary first baseman for the next five years.

The prospect for prospect part of this trade is TBD. It appears that Doncon might not be a true SS, but the bat profiles better than Miller. Adding Margot again shows the commitment to depth that was a big factor in winning the Central in 2023. Having proven major league guys to fill in for injuries and ineffectiveness isn't sexy, but it was a key in the Twins' regular season success last year. The other factor that is clear in this off season is $$$$. The veterans the Twins have brought in on trades and free agent signings cost the Twins way less than market value. DeSclafani ($4M), Santana ($5.25M) and Margot ($4M) were added at discount prices (for the Twins). Calvin Griffith would be proud. It appears to me that Carlos Santana will be in the lineup on a very regular basis, with the primary DH being Alex Kirilloff. Castro, obviously, will get plenty of starts against right handers and I wouldn't be surprised if Margot gets more than a few starts against same sided hurlers. Against lefties, the obvious moves are Margot for Kepler/Wallner and Farmer for Julien. Perhaps a fair amount of Jeffers as DH if he continues to hit like he did in 2023. Martin, Larnach and Miranda are pushed down a spot. We all know that injuries will occur and some guys won't produce as projected. These guys will get their chance, but I doubt it will be on Opening Day. So, if there are no injuries in the month that remains in Spring Training and no more roster transactions, the Twins would appear to be a bit stronger against LH pitching, and about a push vs. righties. Defense should be improved, rotation is less deep and not as strong, but a much deeper bullpen. I don't know if they are a better bet to repeat as Central champions, but with the weakened rotation, I am not too bullish on a playoff run.

Josh Winder placed on the 60-day IL to make room for Margot. This means he will be out until late May, but could start rehab earlier. He will get major league service time and pay for his 60-day stint.

I'd take issue with the quote on first base. While Kirilloff graded poorly last year, he is young and has all the skills necessary to be a better than average fielder. I would assume his numbers are much better this year. Perhaps Santana is the best hope for improvement, but a healthy Kirilloff with more reps could provide plenty of improvement.