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GNess

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Everything posted by GNess

  1. GNess
    Quantifying a "luck" factor in baseball or any other sport and connecting it to expected performance is suspect imho. Luck by definition has a large random quality that defies such predictive models. An athlete and/or coach thinking they can harness it or correct for it is headed down a difficult path.
  2. GNess
    I am squinting hard to see the logic behind this move which creates a 1B "pool" of Bell, Wagaman and Clemens? Not very exciting. The Twins continue to fiddle around the margins which can only help the team in a marginal way ultimately.
  3. GNess
    Your optimism is appreciated, but it is highly unlikely that all those unproven players to emerge as starting caliber players by 2027. Also in your forecast what did the Twins acquire for current players such as Lewis, Jeffers, Wallner etc. since they have disappeared from the line up? It would be awesome though if your projection is spot on!!
  4. GNess
    If true, focusing on a loophole (such as the possibility of a shortened season) to contend for a championship is hardly commendable. But even to do this successfully would require the Twins to add some talent to the lineup and bullpen at a minimum.
  5. GNess
    This list is solid evidence that the Twins can make difference-maker moves in free agency despite budget concerns, They must participate in free agency at some meaningful level. The list is also well constructed, but I think Jack Morris should be # 1 as he is a direct link to a world series title. No disrespect to Nelson Cruz who was outstanding!
  6. GNess
    The quick list above of hyped prospects who failed or under performed to date should give even the most optimistic fans some pause. Draft and develop needs to be augmented by smart trades and free agent signings typically for a MLB organization to have sustained success.
  7. GNess
    Trying to contend in the current AL Central is a much different task than contending for a World Series title. I know that is stating the obvious, but it does frame the. discussion somewhat and better describes what path the Twins might be pursuing.
  8. GNess
    i would say to date the BP and Josh Bell additions constitute a quarter measure not a half. But there is still a few months of offseason remaining.
  9. GNess
    This proposal while creative isn't money well spent. If the Twins actually would take on Walker's salary it seems they could spend that $20M a year in free agency to much better short and long term use than acquiring a 35 year old 1B.
  10. GNess
    I don''t dispute your excellent analysis based on these numbers why would the Twins or any other team pay Arraez $10 M+? Surely all MLB teams have access to this level of analysis and much more. It seems though that there will be a market for Arraez because bottom line - this guy can hit.
  11. GNess
    Since we all know. that the Twins shop in the bargain bin this is a decent signing. Three positives: 1. Bell is a 1B by experience and an ok MLB batter. Not someone morphed into the position. 2. The Twins don't have an obvious 1B in the system so Bell really isn't blocking anyone. 3. Huh - ok I meant two positives.
  12. GNess
    Let;'s face it, the Twins in effect are in direct competition with teams who are willing to spend much more money on payroll than they are choosing to do. Yes, the different markets contribute tø this, but choice is still a big part of it. So as fans of the Twins we have some tendency to romanticize the great bargain free agent that Twins once in a while secure (e.g. Carlos Santana) as evidence that frugality can win in MLB because the Brewers do it. Disdain for the Yankees, Dodgers and Mets et al runs deep as they spend their way to success it would seem. Full disclosure I can't stand the Yankees. The current. state of the barren BP illustrates this point. We take solace in the successful conversion of former failed starters like Jax or Duran and assume somehow this can be repeated because it has happened. Meanwhile other teams knowing it may not be money well spent are still spending big money on RP (Diaz, Finnegan, Jansen etc.). Nothing is stopping these teams to also convert their failed starters into competent MLB RP. Falvey supposedly learned his lesson by the failure of signing Addison Reed a number of years ago so the Twins actively avoid this alternative. The honest truth is the Twins have opted out of using all available methods to succeed. That is making a World Series appearance all the more improbable. (It's been 34 years since the Twins made it to the Fall Classic.)
  13. GNess
    Coach I also spent 40+ years as a basketball coach at High School, JC and D-1. While I agree that self-belief is an important ingredient in athletic success and success in many endeavors this site doesn't have any discernible impact on the self-confidence of the players or coaches on the Twins. There are other components to success for å MLB team, such as sport specific skills, athletic ability, execution of fundamentals, mental toughness and understanding the game amongst them.. They can all be assessed by fans from their particular perspective. This site is for fans to share their opinions and to interact with other fans. Yours are noted and fully understood.
  14. GNess
    Thoughtful article. I don't have a sense that either option is good or bad inherently as it depends on how well the plan is executed. The build around approach is something of a half measure, but it appears that is the direction the Twins have opted to pursue for now. So we are counting on Falvey, the FO and the developmental coaches to make excellent roster/positional decisions, acquire the right players via trade/free agency and/or have the young players rising to the MLB level to be ready to contribute. Count me as a skeptic with just a sliver of hope that this needle can be threaded.
  15. GNess
    Yes. The Twins value positional flexibility and i understand it to a degree. However, there surely is value in stability, consistency and experience at a position too. Keaschall strikes me as a good enough athlete to develop into a reasonable defender at 2B. His bat impacts there as well and leaves the corner OF spots for corner outfielders.
  16. GNess
    The success of the 2023 season would not have been possible without Correa. The failure was not adding to that team in the lead up to the 2024 and 2025 seasons with the "right-sizing" budgetary approach. Correa is in my view unfairly cast in the role of scapegoat for organizational failures. ( I suspect that is not a view held by many here on TD.)
  17. GNess
    Lewis is young enough to significantly alter his performance going forward. However, he is going to have make huge improvements that very few MLB accomplish to attain superstar status that Falvey notes is possible. Just because he has shown bursts and stretches when healthy of elite production doesn't mean he can or will be able to consistently do so. But it does give some reason to hope. Here's to hoping he makes a serious jump up.
  18. GNess
    You are right if the moves at the deadline was primarily a salary dump, which allowed for no prioritizing of competing in 2026. However, now the dumping seems to be on hold (by their recent statements) as the FO tries to maneuver into fielding a competitive team after gutting their BP just a few months ago. This roster development approach is a shot in the dark in my view if in fact competing in 2026 actually is a value to the FO.
  19. GNess
    This somewhat surprising development including payroll flexibility and holding on to Lopez, Ryan and Buxton creates some scenarios that many of us didn't consider realistic. Understanding of course the Twins tend towards frugality and bargains in free agency. Why not O'Hearn? If this was the plan from jump street why the heck did they trade their four top BP arms. They should of held on to one or two of them.
  20. GNess
    Casas posted two years of OPS at or above .800. He is a 1B by position. Adding Casas would also free up Clemens to serve in a utility role, which seems to suit him. Casas has 4 years of team control I think.
  21. GNess
    Interesting perspective and makes sense to keep Lopez/Ryan før now and then to deal a SP or two. Thus, the Twins can hopefully shore up some positional weaknesses such as 1B. Creating a surplus if such a thing exists for SP does allow for trade options. Just don't empty out the supply of SP arms as they did with the BP - which seems to remain as an area of legit concern. If Casas or Mouncastle are the targets either seem like a modest potential upgrades over current 1B options. (Clemens, Julien)
  22. GNess
    I agree that signaling your intent to rebuild in advance is a poor negotiating tactic generally as well as bad PR. However, haven't the Twins basically already done so by trading off 40%+ of the MLB roster at the deadline? It seems that other GM's will have that info when and if Falvey approaches them with Lopez, Ryan, Buxton or Jeffers trade proposals. Basically, MLB trading transactions are more a product of perceived value to both parties in the exchange of assets. (At least that's how it appears to me from a distance.)
  23. GNess
    The deadline trade massacre shouldn't be seen as one thing inasmuch as the trading away of the entire BP was the real issue. I don't see a lot of people complaining about trading away Bader or Castro. The idea that the Twins could simply put together an effective BP in 2026 essentially from scratch is the main cause of current pessimism. Especially when they had some proven arms in the BP with multiple years of control remaining. Add on to that the reasonable expectation that the Twins might execute part II of their reset by trading away Buxton, Lopez, Ryan and Jeffers thereby eliminating any hope of a competitive season in 2026. Drawing those conclusions doesn't make me or anyone else less of a Twins fan.
  24. GNess
    Sadly this is likely the best option given the players already dealt at the deadline.
  25. GNess
    That being the case to trade Buxton the Twins might as well get on with it and deal Jeffers, Ryan and Lopez as well. Which would make the team basically a quasi AAA team for a while as players grow into being MLB worthy.
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