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Craig Arko

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Everything posted by Craig Arko

  1. Craig Arko
    Only if you are also sober during the broadcasts.
  2. Craig Arko
    It's television. Will advanced stats sell more cars or Arby's food?
  3. Craig Arko
    The really scary thing is the strong possibility the Wild Card game will be held in either NY or Toronto. Still, just getting there at all will be quite remarkable.
  4. Craig Arko
    I felt it was a bit of a slow start, but I'm really hoping they dish more on what the origin of the virus was. Along the lines of the most important single episode of TWD, namely the first season finale at the CDC. Maybe that one kid can tell us more, if we ever see him again.
  5. Craig Arko
    It think we've hit one of those magical 'agree to disagree' moments. Especially since the only thing that matters is the actual final result.
  6. Craig Arko
    Funny you should mention that. My first job out of college involved writing Monte Carlo simulations. In doing them I became quite conversant with this topic: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_error_probable As we were trying to compute kill ratios on the ground.
  7. Craig Arko
    No, real statistical models include error analysis. And they fess up to it. Here is some real scientific literature. http://arxiv.org What's being discussed here is this: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/subjective_probability.asp
  8. Craig Arko
    No, this isn't another election thread. Who else is watching the pilot tonight?
  9. Craig Arko
    That's what Pete Rose said.
  10. Craig Arko
    Nice to see the scoreless inning from Perk. Suddenly the 'pen doesn't look quite so hopeless.
  11. Craig Arko
    Or, quit buying into dark ages superstions.
  12. Craig Arko
    The thing with these models is that unless they include the variance of the values (e.g. 7.5% +- 1.5%) the exact numbers are not worth a whole lot. They can order the teams but a quick look at the standings can do that too without any false impression of numerical accuracy.
  13. Craig Arko
    I like the little dinosaur in the Kia commercial.
  14. Craig Arko
    Hunter doesn't catch that.
  15. Craig Arko
    Nice Fall-like day in the TC today; by far my favorite season of the year. Pretty wild and crazy last night, as the reports from the Bank indicated. Nice seeing Sano in the field again. Gotta think Plouffe is a major trade chip this winter.
  16. Craig Arko
    Having watched him play, I think Rosario is better in left. Pure eyeballing, though.
  17. Craig Arko
    The technical term is 'wildass guess.'
  18. Craig Arko
    Lots of different notions and interpretations of probability out there. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_probability
  19. Craig Arko
    He has both the talent and the work ethic, so if he stays healthy, sure. I just hope it happens in a Twins uniform.
  20. Craig Arko
    Teams have saved 15% or more on insurance runs by switching to (fill in the blank).
  21. Craig Arko
    Not an interesting baseball question but had a fun day. My nephew and his girlfriend are both in the cast of 'The Music Man' at the Guthrie, and after the matinee much of the extended family went out for Thai food just as the storm was beginning.
  22. Craig Arko
    The things we're talking about are streaming; I've also had the experience of waiting on the DVD queue forever. I finally dropped the DVDs altogether, figuring I can use Red Box if there's something popular I want get. Or buy it from iTunes if it's a keeper.
  23. Craig Arko
    The kid has been a model of consistency; with an average pretty much always staying in the 270-280 range. This is the mean and there's not much regression. No prolonged slumps, and no real blazing hot streaks either. To get better as he ages, cut down the Ks and turn them into contact, and maybe a bit more extra-base hitting. He'll profile as a great two-hole hitter if he can do those things.
  24. Craig Arko
    Wait; are you telling me TD doesn't run on Windows 95? From a DOS prompt in Safe Mode? Wow, the things you learn on the web...
  25. Craig Arko
    They're saying first pitch in about a half hour; 8:35 Central.
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