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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Much better than signing Canha.
  2. ashbury
    A waste of scarce financial resources. Just no.
  3. ashbury
    Um, Spring Training. Pretty sure .
  4. ashbury
    AKA the Margot Line. "To pinch hit, you must be hitting better than the guy you are replacing."
  5. ashbury
    Hardly any different than for batters. Be productive against opponents from one side, don't be unplayable against those from the other.
  6. ashbury
    Okay, anyone reasonably available. 😀 Trading a starter for Casas would approximately negate the win that I think the Arraez trade was.
  7. ashbury
    My impression is Casas isn't a very good fielder. I'm not sure there is a DH in the world I'd trade a major rotation arm for.
  8. ashbury
    In regard to the suggestions of using the 60-day IL, I believe that list remains dormant until the beginning of Spring Training. Might be as early as Pitchers and Catchers Report Day, but not today. Someone needs to be traded or DFAed to make room.
  9. ashbury
    PECOTA's guiding philosophy is this: if present trends continue, things will remain much as they are. It's not a bad way to base forecasts, but it isn't going to notice some player about to break out suddenly either. Look at their forecast for Brooks Lee as an example. (Not that I'm ready to declare him a 5 WAR player either.)
  10. ashbury
    If you like WHIP then why not go the next step and Include power, namely OPS-against or something similar?
  11. ashbury
    Yeah, no chance this offer gets outbid by one of the big boys such as the Mets who are also said to be kicking the tires on Cease. 😀
  12. ashbury
    Probably, but.
  13. ashbury
    "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday."
  14. ashbury
    I suppose if you analyze any team, and focus solely on the transactions made after Feb 1 each season, you could conclude that the team only picks up the scraps that are left over.
  15. ashbury
    If Solano is the best "bang for the buck", put me down for just maximum "bang". You can't build a winning roster $2M at a time, so a signing like this is nothing more than filler when a hole in the roster is perceived.
  16. ashbury
    If my salary affects my employer's bottom line, either I am very fortunate indeed or I need to be on the hunt for a new employer. 😀
  17. ashbury
    Unplayable against lefties, not a difference maker against righties, meager contribution on defense. Little wonder if he's on the verge of losing his 40-man spot. Hard pass.
  18. ashbury
    Yes, there is a lot of circularity to the analysis. Getting sent down to AAA, as Wallner managed to do, presents a real handicap toward getting the RBIs. (The missed time of course, but also the poor performance while he was up for this first stint. Once he was back up, his RBI rate was pretty good.) Hit well, stay healthy, take your chances on the counting stats at season's end. Not exactly a revolutionary recipe for success, eh?
  19. ashbury
    There were 12 MLB players last year who scored 100 runs. It's not the norm for a team to have one. Of those 12 prolific run-scorers, the lowest number of Plate Appearances was 682. The closest our Twins had to that was utility guy Willi Castro at 635 and then Carlos Santana at 595. The dropoff in PA was steep after that, with Ryan Jeffers at #3 with 465. (The Yankees alone had 4 guys with more PA than our Castro, and a fifth guy almost.) The Twins' run scoring, slightly above average overall in tenth place in the majors, was spread around due to injuries and minor league demotions. If individual stats are your thing, the first order of business is getting their best players playing a full season. Those individual stats and honors will come.
  20. ashbury
    I could have, and perhaps should have, used Stevenson as the BABIP poster boy instead of Beckham. .383 BABIP in St Paul. .243 BABIP for Minnesota. Things tend to even out over time, but the length of time is often nontrivial, and what you end up with is "he sure laid an egg when he came back up to the majors" when really it was "he's on a hot tear at AAA that will be hard to sustain wherever he is, he's the same guy he always was."
  21. ashbury
    A 4 or 5?? There were only 55 pitchers who went 165 innings last season. That's just under 2 per team (Twins had Ober and Lopez). Not all those 55 pitchers kept their ERA at 4.00 or better, either. You might consider switching to grading on the curve. 😀
  22. ashbury
    Well, we showed our work. 😀
  23. ashbury
    I want to believe in DaShawn Keirsey. But his BABIP at AAA was closer to .400 than to .300, so it worries me that his good AAA numbers will be a mirage if given a legitimate shot in the majors. We saw that with Tim Beckham a couple of years ago, on a smaller scale, gaudy AAA stats followed by a horrific stint with the big club, leading some observers to gloat "you can't trust AAA numbers" while others gloated "just look at the BABIPs for both, the truth about Beckham lies somewhere in between." 😀 I also have a sense that Keirsey's an average CFer, by which I mean he is skilled but the bar at the major league level is set very high. If he doesn't hit, he can't hang on by depriving the opposing teams of runs that another CFer can't prevent. A projected WAR of 2.0 for a full-time player would mean "average major leaguer." That same WAR for a part-timer would be a real asset during his time on the field. Me, I'm afraid I have to take the under. That's a pretty rich projection for a player of his age still trying to establish himself.
  24. ashbury
    I can't quite tell if Bohorquez stands out because of his potential or because the rest of the Twins' arms in the FCL this year were lackluster.
  25. ashbury
    Rocco was a high first-round draft pick He reached the majors at age 21 and played full-time right away He finished third for Rookie of the Year He followed up with similar performance the next year but with injuries He was diagnosed with "channelopathy, a rare metabolic/muscular disorder which causes frequent soft tissue injuries and severe fatigue" (Wikipedia) He never could stay on the field after that and retired a few years later If you think that age 21-22 stats define a player's ceiling, I don't know what to say. He was a really good MLB hitter, and we never got to find out his peak. He wasn't some scrub who just hung on. If you don't like his managing style, fine but there's no reason to gaslight us on his playing days.
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