ashbury

A dinger every 7.9 AB when the game was already pretty much decided. One every 18.7 when the score was within 4. That's basically the difference between being a 30-HR guy if he ever got 600 AB, and a 40-HR guy. Not that 30 is bad, but combined with a low BA it ain't all that, either. And when the game's not close, that 7.9 rate will fool us into thinking he's a 75-HR guy if we just give him the chance. (And no, not every batter has splits of that magnitude. Byron Buxton had a good 2025, and when the game was within 4 runs he homered every 13.67 AB, while when the lead for either team was 5 or greater, his homer rate was every 16 AB - the opposite direction of Wallner. I'm not going to invest more time looking at other individuals, but across the majors those rates are 29.4 and 26.8 respectively - not especially different, one from the other.) His ordinary splits with men on base look reasonable, but it could be that they're inflated by the meaningless situations. I don't know where to find further splits, of results with men on base versus bases empty, divided into the size of the lead when it happened. The one useful split b-r.com provides to go to this extra level, is what they term "late & close". In those very limited situations (and I don't know how they're defined), Wallner hit 1 HR in 33 AB, for a rather high ratio of, well, 33. It's dangerous to slice and dice things into small samples, but if those small samples are congruent with what looks like an overall trend, I'm more inclined to consider them. My working hypothesis is that Wallner is far more susceptible than most batters, to falling prey to the pitcher's strategy for the game situation. Which reduces his value far below what the raw numbers would suggest. I can't recall a player with such extreme splits in this regard - Joey Gallo maybe, although his unfavorable splits were of a different nature. I want, want, want the coaches to help Wallner figure this out.

Oh sure, tout the gaudy seasonal batting average. But it was pumped up by a BA of .255 in the plate appearances when the score was already at least 5 ahead or behind. In all other situations when it mattered he batted .192.

I like that argument. What I especially like is that it isn't symmetrical to the advantage that goes to the hitter in terms of offering at less-than-marginal pitches for fear of being rung up unfairly. Baseball is best when there is balance between things that aren't precisely mirror images. The remarkable balance between a catcher throwing the ball to second base and a runner trying to get there on foot is another example.

This team has a chance of being far enough behind, by about the 5th inning, of enough games, that Wallner will see enough fat pitches, from garbage time pitchers, to lace 40 of them over the wall. (Although truly, I hope he and his coaches figure out ways that he can stop eating out of the pitcher's hand when the game is still close, so that we have fewer of those garbage time innings to begin with.)

If Profar (switch-hitter) was slated to be paired with Yaz, then they'd be looking for a new righty bat. Connor Joe and his minor-league contract could be had from the Mariners for almost nothing, I imagine; other possibilities surely abound. I don't see how Larnach fits into the picture.

I know of a strong argument in favor of offense going up: pitching is all about disrupting the batter's approach and anything that makes that part of the game more predictable will aid the batter. I don't know of a countervailing argument that would give the pitcher any edge. If the umpires were systematically calling balls when they should be strikes, more often than the reverse, then maybe, but I'm not aware of any studies showing that.

No. HTH.

Oh, I think we know what they'd like. But will events allow it?

What's the over-under on the inning in which he is replaced? It being spring, starters don't play long. I'd put the line at 1.5.

As long as we're correcting the record, anyone who has spent time in the Bay Area will know that the name of the high school is Junípero Serra, in honor of the Franciscan monk who established many of the Catholic missions up and down the coast.

Thanks for this summary. Data that doesn't mean very much is still better than no data, at least if you accept the ground rules.

The Cardinals have already claimed him twice this off-season. What are the odds Kent passes through waivers if the Twins try?

Guh, who writes the headlines at TD? They are always out of whack with the content. There are four pitchers with higher WAR than Buxton. The headline didn't limit the discussion to hitters. Anyway, it barely needs repeating that he is a "what might have been" player with a probable HoF trajectory if he had better health.

Did we win?

Cueva de Jacob, going forward.

Ow! is a word that comes out of nowhere!

How much additional thought did you give to "allegoreality"?

I think maybe it's fixed?

Maybe we were in on him though. That has to count for something.

Price for the first game you attend: $229. Free admission to any others you care to see.

I had a great deal of respect for Terry Ryan and still do but it was about the time he uttered those words that I felt the game had passed him by.

"Sometimes you just can't get them to take your money." -- Terry Ryan

Many options for the drive from Denver to Sacramento. Looks like time will be tight. Reach out if you want suggestions other than the minimum time route your GPS will suggest.

Yes, because elite arms are routinely found on the DFA list. We paid a little to jump the line.