ashbury

I think even at that age I understood that you put Hal Reniff in the spokes, not The Mick. 😁

If a team already in serious contention for a WS acquires Joe Ryan this month, they get two bites at the apple: what he does for them this post-season, and what he does for them next year. A trade in this coming off-season gives the acquiring team just one bite. I think that has to be a serious factor in what the Twins would be offered at either moment - the factor could be 2X. The question is how much the Twins value their own chances at contention for playing meaningful games in October. To me, that can't be answered today, and will be answered in about two weeks.

Jeffers: Echoing pretty much the consensus here, he's probably the catcher to trade. His defense has never been stellar and the cost to keep a player entering his decline is too steep compared to other uses for that money. Larnach: He's a paradox and a dilemma. The Twins currently have no fewer than 10 outfielders on their 40-man roster (the Twins 40-man page somehow has Keaschall and Kreidler swapped) and yet somehow we seem short and Larnach feels indispensable all of a sudden. Is Alan Roden really a replacement for Larnach? The Twins remain with a question mark about him instead of answers, a year after acquiring him. Here's the tie-breaker for me: Larnach's numbers at the plate are better this year, but his batting average on balls in play is at a career high (especially against RHP), so if he comes back to earth on that axis then he's basically the same batter we've seen the past several years. And his defense, while usually unimportant, remains a small negative. I would trade him at the deadline, grit my teeth, and hope Roden will develop that final step into being a full-time starter, which the team's scouts must have said was possible given that they accepted him in trade. I don't have huge expectations from Roden but his slightly better defense probably balances slightly lower offense, and he's under cheap team control for longer. It depends as always on the return in trade, as I have no interest in getting a 25-year old glove-first SS currently at AA. Bell: I don't know if we'd get much in return for him. He's on a good run and that could evaporate but I'm inclined to hang on to him. Go for it or build for 2027? 2023 is my evidence that even a modestly talented squad can do the franchise a lot of good - that series against Toronto was tons of fun and should not be downplayed. I think it's possible to do both (go for it without mortgaging the future) but a good deal of wheeling and dealing at the deadline will be involved. You can;'t trade Larnach or Jeffers to a contending team and expect MLB-ready pieces in return for our own contention efforts, so they need to be traded for excellent prospects, and then attention be turned to bottom-feeder teams who would like prospects in return for their few useful pieces. I've probably played too much OOTP and it colors my perception, but prospects are the essence of "fungible assets" and should be used to smooth out the process of acquiring your eventual pool of major league talent. E.g. Roden should probably have been traded last off-season as part of a package for acquiring solid bullpen help, for example, once the Twins committed to Larnach another season. It's this big-picture issue of either committing to talent or else moving them in trade that is one of my biggest gripes with this FO - they acquired a guy like Roden and then let him die on the vine (injury this season being an extenuating factor).

2023 cured me of thinking DH is of much use for him anyway. He gets hurt doing baseball things, and defense seems less than half of the total risk. If he's not capable of playing defense on a given day, I don't want him batting either.

My preseason 61-101 prognostication seems to have worked as an anti-jinx, so I will stand pat.

That's the middle ground I gravitate toward. There will likely be a work stoppage. There will be a season worth competing in, with a worthy champion crowned. These are not contradictory ideas.

No, the point doesn't remain. It's a bad methodology by this point in any season. Indeed you almost spotted the flaw but didn't follow through to the conclusion. #13 for the Twins is Matt Wallner with 135 PA. Was Wallner ever the 13th guy on the roster this season? Of course not. They gave him a long run as a starter, then pulled the plug and sent him to St Paul. Almost every team's roster evolves as the season progresses, either due to injury or due to poor performance (or in rare cases a AAA player forcing the issue with great play). That's what you're likely measuring here. Churn. A meaningful study of 13th men would involve a whale of a lot of work, involving careful tracking of each roster change and how the team made use of each player while that version of the roster remained intact, taking into account nagging day-to-day injuries like Buxton is susceptible to and the handedness of the day's opposing pitcher and probably other secondary matters. I don;'t know how other teams handle their 13th man, and I'm not going to invest the effort, but I'm pretty certain the data snapshot you provided doesn't show the way.

The reverse also sometimes works.

I don't have much disagreement with any of these points. I just didn't think it necessary to overstate the case.

That ignores the 2023 and 2026 seasons. You picked Jeffers' worst two seasons out of the most recent four, and Caratini's best two. 2026 isn't complete yet, but that's no reason to throw it out as meaningless. And even then, best versus worst, Jeffers has a tiny, tiny edge in OPS. To me, that makes them not especially close as comparable as batters. Across 2023-26 it's .790 to .723.

I failed to add, a couple more games and his OPS should be up above 1.000. What are we waiting for?

I detect just a teensy bit of skepticism concerning the competence of the Twins' minor league coaching staff. 😁

I have no idea what they charge for something like this. Do you mind my asking?

insurance runs plz

Feeling better now?

At some point they'll need to acquire a shortstop and a center fielder for Ft Myers next season, just in case these pitching aces fail to strike out the side every time. / edit - I didn't refresh my draft update page - I see they've started this process. 😁

Talent aside, I would not be able to carry the day-in day-out workload they do.

The spreadsheets would have told the team to discard Gray long ago. He's still with the team because someone's playing a hunch or something. 😁

@Church of Kreidler, you've got some proselytizin' to do.

sacred double >> sacred flyout

A well-timed extra base knock? What ranks above "blessed"?

You can have fun rooting for Drew Burress, drafted #8 by the Athletics. I've seen it mentioned that his listed height of 5'9" might be, uh, "generous."

You must have been beside yourself with passion for the Angels' 2021 draft. 😁

Welp, now you've convinced me. He's gonna be trade bait for a couple years of a good, established starter.