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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Not another medical condition to have team doctors check out, and then us worry about for six years!
  2. ashbury
    The rumored Mets offer, half the years for half the dollars of their previous agreement, seems inexplicable. The value a player gives is highest in the early years of a long contract. If you trim off half the years, you need to trim less than half the money. That makes their offer nearly an insult.
  3. ashbury
    Probably not a good idea to question the motives or mental states of others simply because they disagree with you. Where the topic of Bauer is concerned, returning the favor would seem like low-hanging fruit.
  4. ashbury
    If he's (still) on a HoF track by that point in his career, an extra year of counting-stats could be appealing to him. As for the money, I think he already has set up a charitable foundation, and each additional year of earnings might in his eyes be "for the kids" or whatever way he directs his donations. Those strike me as a couple of good reasons he would put off retiring if he's physically capable, even though the earnings peak is long past.
  5. ashbury
    The wording of the headline made me think you are ghostwriting Torii's autobiography.
  6. ashbury
  7. ashbury
    Went to visit our son there at Thanksgiving. Couldn't have enjoyed the city more.
  8. ashbury
    Okay, but you also put the word "elite" in there on purpose. "If" means you think it's possible, and I'm here to say that "elite" is unlikely in the extreme.
  9. ashbury
    I don't believe this will ever come to pass. Unclear he can even play acceptable SS, and average CF looks like his ceiling to me.
  10. ashbury
    Ortega is designated for assignment today. What was your favorite Oliver Ortega moment?
  11. ashbury
    Home run hitters drive Cadillacs. Singles hitters drive Fords. This concept dates back to at least Ralph Kiner, making it three quarters of a century old. Babe Ruth figured it out, so let's call it a nice round 100 years. Luis Arraez is your quintessential "nice little player." I believe you can even win a World Series with him as a regular on your roster, but you can say the same about several hundred ballplayers. If Austin Martin wants to be more than a nice little player, he needs to display power.
  12. ashbury
    I had thought there was a larger offer on the table than that. Apparently not, so he comes out a little behind, after "betting on himself" with the 2022 contract, but not that much behind. One year at $35.1M, plus this $200M guarantee for just six more years. So he's owed $35M less, but over fewer years. If he achieves the vesting option, so much the better for him (and for the Twins). I will choose to view this new contract (based on current details) as 10 years and $270M, with a "team option" after Year Six given that they have a great deal of say over whether he achieves his vesting numbers. Honestly, I feel as though ultra-long contracts should always contain some kind of vesting requirement for the second half of the term. It's fair to the player as well to the team.
  13. ashbury
    Free Agency is the failure tax a contending team must pay for not developing an appropriately talented young controllable player for a particular position on the field. To not pay it amounts to saying either you're not contending or you're so set at every position that no further improvement is possible. This writeup is a pretty good analytic summary of how you have to look at roster construction; "where do wins come from" is the facts of life question for baseball, and the answer can't be 1 WAR each from 50 different mediocre players because the rosters aren't big enough.
  14. ashbury
    Instead of focusing on the auxiliary verb, focus on the word "toxic." When does a manager use that word in regard to a player? Almost never. It amounts to throwing the player under the bus.
  15. ashbury
    The player is never a commodity. But the contract for his services? A FO has to think in hardnosed terms. Every player with a long career acknowledges at some point, it's a business. For me the long-term commitment was always the biggest concern, and the 10-year offer previously on the table by the Twins looks unwise to me in light of the newer information. Knock 3 years at $20M per off of their offer, leading to a higher AAV, and invite him to take it or leave it if he's got a better total dollar offer somewhere else. Before, $285M total contract value was close to an insult given the reality that someone would offer $300+. Things change and now $225M seems like a legitimate offer, whether it wins or loses. Maybe the Mets fool me, but after this many days/weeks I doubt their disagreement is over a "mere" $50M relative to their previous winning offer.
  16. ashbury
    It's a great idea but I'm not sure the Bosox are the right target. The challenge is to find an aging veteran who is 1) still good, 2) highly paid, 3) on a not-very-long remaining contract, 4) on a team that isn't under pressure to contend. Boston can't really wave a white flag for 2023, even if expectations aren't terribly high. Sale otherwise checks the necessary boxes, but I just don't see how discarding someone of value can play with their fan base. Cubs and Stroman? Not sure what that team's intentions really are.
  17. ashbury
    That must have been it. None of the online sources I saw mentioned anything in terms of business days, but what else could it be.
  18. ashbury
    And then do the opposite, right?
  19. ashbury
    Ceiling? Major-league starting-caliber center fielder. He turns 24 in a few weeks so there is still room to reach that tier, but he needs to improve both at bat and on defense, whether at St Paul for part of 2023 or in the majors. I would not entertain trade offers lightly on him - up the middle talent is too scarce and is difficult to acquire, as witnessed by the price we paid to get him.
  20. ashbury
    I'm afraid of the metaphor for banging trashcans.
  21. ashbury
    Designated for assignment, you mean? I didn't see further news of a release. DFA could be a precursor to a trade, but likely will just be passing him through waivers in hopes to keep him. That does mean risking losing him, if some other team wants to devote a 40-man spot to a pitcher not especially close to major-league ready.
  22. ashbury
    I feel the need to pump the brakes on Emmanuel Rodriguez's breakout year at single-A. His numbers seem to be built on an other-worldly ability to draw walks. Walks are good, but at single-A there's a chance he's just figured out how to exploit young pitchers' inability to throw strikes on demand. Nobody has an OBP .200 higher than his BA on a sustainable basis. What will happen to him against more advanced pitchers next year? Specifically, will the "excess" walks that are no longer available to him turn into base hits? Or into outs? His batting average was an okay .272, so I don't see a pattern of "if you throw him strikes he hits it, if you don't then he walks." I look for major regression in his batting stats in 2023 with a hope he proves me wrong.
  23. ashbury
    I don't understand the sequence of events. Ortega was DFA by the Angels on December 22. That was more than 2 weeks ago. I thought DFA lasted for 10 days, sometime within which 3-day waivers must be started and completed, unless the intention is to simply release him or make some other move. How is it that the Twins claimed him now?
  24. ashbury
    This is a signing that a bottom-feeder team makes. I'm starting to think that's all the Twins aspire to, so, sure, why not. No. Yes. I don't care at the moment.
  25. ashbury
    Can't help feeling that if any of these three guys are actual upgrades (anymore at this stage of their respective careers), we might as well hold a fire sale of our current players with short remaining team control and commence with a full rebuild.
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