The complicated answer: an awful lot more has to break right than break badly in order for them to contend. The ceilings are there at most positions, the risks of under-performance are there too. The simple answer: Starting Pitching. Starting Pitching. Starting Pitching. If this highly variable commodity comes through, weaknesses elsewhere could be finessed. If you're looking for a key, a few weeks into the season, pick a stat you like, even a crude measure such as Quality Starts, and see if 4 out of 5 starts are solid each time around. OK, so it took me a few more words to express my simple answer.