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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    His peers in AAA don't in general belong in the majors. They put up their numbers against batters who don't belong in the majors either. I know you want to avoid small-sample-size, but the threshold of 60 innings contains an unintended bias, as it represents perhaps a few up-and-coming arms but mostly is a group of pitchers who their major league front offices felt were better deployed at AAA than in the majors. Probably it would be wise to start by sorting by age to find a cohort of similar pitchers. Pitcher or batter, a player wanting to contribute at the major league level needs to put up numbers far superior to the crowd in AAA. "Pretty well" gets you overmatched at the next level up. Smoke and mirrors was no factor for Dobnak at AAA, and his major league numbers were in line with what could be expected from his performance in AAA; I very much doubt that the FO was doing anything other than calling up a fresh arm to replace some similar ones they were DFA'ing right and left. We're basically finding different ways to say "replacement level" for a player in his age-29 season An article speculating about the role for such a player kind of answers its own headline question. He needs to improve over what we've seen the past several seasons to have a role. Every year unexpected good things happen, and I'll always root for him, but ever since his finger injury it hasn't happened for Dobnak.
  2. ashbury
    Yes, and we saw it also in larger samples at AAA. His MLB OPS-against was in the low .800s and his AAA OPS-against was in the low .700s. The majors are harder than the minors; his results are reasonably congruent.
  3. ashbury
    Betteridge's Law of Headlines suggests that the answer to the headline question is "No."
  4. ashbury
    The "kid" is in his 40s. I think he's older than Falvey, who also is past the whiz-kid threshold anymore. If Joe Pohlad is wet behind the ears it's not due to youth, he's just slow to dry off.
  5. ashbury
    Concur. While Joe Pohlad is listed on the team's website as "Executive Chair," just above him is listed Jim as "Control Owner," which represents no real change in the power structure from before. I think it's completely reasonable to believe that after 10 or 12 months in that cushy chair starting in November 2022, Joe was asked to present progress-to-plan on his business plan that they presumably all agreed to when he was elevated. The rest of the ownership team was presumably aghast when they saw the revenue forecasts, particularly the coming collapse of broadcast revenue with no remedy in sight, and mandated cuts. Kind of similar to the situation with Bill Smith as GM after the 2011 season. The rumors that I recall were that his get-well plan involved an infusion of capital to bring in talent, and when he was told no, he didn't back down, and was summarily replaced by Terry Ryan V2.0, who then embarked on a "right-sizing" project of his own. I would infer that in the present case, Joe Pohlad may have tried to persuade the higher-ups in a similar way, to accept some losses in order to build up the fan base, but unlike Smith did back down and thus began the past round of right-sizing that may not yet be the last. It's all supposition of course, and going with sketchy public knowledge.
  6. ashbury
    I don't think the sequence of events supports that. Winning the WS is too long a shot for basing the sale strategy around. If the pump and dump were to happen it would have been a year ago, after the fan base was excited. Instead they didn't replace Sonny Gray and "right sized" the payroll. They missed their window, if that were the plan.
  7. ashbury
    You already saw this, but the others may not have. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=526170843465927
  8. ashbury
    You're depriving yourself from enjoying a really entertaining game, unfortunately. I put aside my antipathy for both teams and just watched the drama.
  9. ashbury
    Enough to have more starts at SS than anyone else on the team, including the guy named as MVP. 😀
  10. ashbury
    I like runs and RBIs. Among players whose games were at least 60% behind the plate, Jeffers had the 8th most runs batted in, and the 9th most runs scored. Part of his secret formula was to be 4th in the majors in HR (among catching peers I mean). Someone has to catch. If you discard Jeffers, it's a false economy - you will be hard pressed to replace the production without paying through the nose.
  11. ashbury
    I had the Twins for 78 wins in TD's preseason survey, so for me Rocco is a dark horse candidate for Manager of the Year for this over performance. 😊
  12. ashbury
    Yes, sorry, I missed that caveat in your explanation. I expect he has some trade value in a full teardown. That's the only scenario I care about anymore. The onslaught of trade this guy, trade that guy, has worn me down.
  13. ashbury
    For every player with a positive value that you listed (where's Wallner?) there appears to be an article at TD titled something like "To Save Money Should the Twins Consider Trading X?" 😀
  14. ashbury
    It's not worth starting a whole different thread, but I'll mention that the recipients of the Most Valuable Twin and the Twins Defensive Player of the Year happen to be the only two Twins among finalists for Gold Gloves this season. https://www.mlb.com/news/2024-gold-glove-award-finalists
  15. ashbury
    Our new old hitting coach turns 34 in a couple of weeks. David Popkins is just under a year older than that. I find it very interesting that such relatively young people are given the reins at the major league level, in preference to someone with decades of experience. If it works out, great, but Popkins didn't last that long here. It could be some variant of the Peter Principle at play here - someone with any abilities in one area may get promoted to some bigger job (bench coach, manager) until they reach a certain degree of failure, after which they either have lost their credibility or else (Rowson might be an example) latch on with someone else in a similar role to what they did succeed at. Nothing new under the sun, maybe.
  16. ashbury
    The billionaire who won't spend has no advantage over the millionaire who can't spend. 😀
  17. ashbury
    When the concession stands all run out of those little packets of mustard for your burger or hot dog at the same time, DSP is the guy who fires the person responsible for the oversight and promotes an eager young intern as the replacement, all the while scolding Twins fans for expecting mustard to be available for each and every food item anytime they want. I will take your word for the other stuff.
  18. ashbury
    Me. Back in the bankruptcy days, and the atmosphere in the ballpark wasn't good then. I trust that it is better now.
  19. ashbury
    Follow me on Facebook for great investment tips that will make you glad you didn't waste time on baseball.
  20. ashbury
    Noble on the mound (about to give up a single).
  21. ashbury
    Nah, this is from today. No real difference from yesterday of course, as far as opening festivities are concerned No Twins batters in the lineup today. Jack Noble just pitched a so-so fifth.
  22. ashbury
    National Anthem
  23. ashbury
    Come to games and you can take quick snaps like this. (Or better. 😊)
  24. ashbury
    All billionaires are hypothetical. Eat the Rich. 😀
  25. ashbury
    True. But. I Am Not A Lawyer, as they say, but with business at this level I view all signed contracts as mere starting points for discussion when someone becomes dissatisfied. At a smaller scale Correa has a non-trade clause and yet we're discussing trading him, for example.
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