Doctor Gast
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Everything posted by Doctor Gast
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Arbitrary Thoughts: Ryan Jeffers
Doctor Gast replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
There is no doubt that Jeffers is worthy to be tendered a contract. Will he be or should he be traded? Are other questions. Will he be? Tough to say with Falvey. Should he be? Yes, he should be. Boras is his agent & Boras is against extensions; Falvey normally trades away players before they hit FA, getting something instead of nothing. Let's say Jeffers wants to stay, but wants a big extension. Sometimes Falvey does extend players he shouldn't & overpays them (Paddock case in point). Falvey has done nothing to compensate for losing both Vazquez & Jeffers, so to cover his behind again. I can see him paying the exorbitant Boras extension. I don't want to disappoint my fan club by stating that Jeffers always gets worn down in the 2nd half. Defensively, he's more challenged, so it goes to show that his defense suffers more. IMO, Fangraph is much better at calculating defensive WAR than BR & Jeffers has had negative defensive WAR his last 3 years, so it's not an anomaly. I was impressed with Jeffers that he seemed less worn down than usual this year. IMO, the challenge ABS won't change much as far as framing, you only get 3 challenges. So catchers will still try to steal strikes on a steady basis & it'll still be important to teams. -
It seems like Buxton, poorly developed players, screwed up players, AAAA players, overextended defensively players & and injury-prone players. Many should be gone before the season starts. Pretty sad. Way to go, Falvey! Offensively, I project Buxton to be his healthy self at CF, Keaschall, plays 1B/DH stays healthy & is relocated to LF later in the season, Martin is allowed to be himself & he flourishes at 2B. All 3 will lead the running game. Lewis will find himself, after being confused & be that player we all expect him to be. Lee will continue to improve & be solid. Wallner is a big question mark. He's OK but I'd him to be more clutch. We have a lot of LHH cOFers; Wallner, Emma, Larnach, Rondon, Keirsey, Outman & Clemens who can play there. All on the 40-man. Jeffers & Larnach have adjusted & have good ABs but less HRs. Catching will be a total mess, like I projected years ago. I expect worthless Julien & damaged Miranda to be DFAed with a bunch of others on this list. This is being optimistic in that we get a good manager & coaching staff to replace those who should be gone. The last 2 years we've had holes that weren't plugged. Now we have more holes than a sinking ship with no way of plugging them even if Falvey wanted to.
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IMO. it's not only having an identity but also having the right identity that maximizes what is going on in the league. The "Bomba Squad" identity came about organically when players noticed that they were playing with a "juiced ball". They helped each other to maximize the effect. After the "juiced ball" was gone, Falvey artificially adopted his "all-or-nothing" approach to every hitter. Drafting & promoting slow, defense-deficient big bats that fit this mold. Falvey stuck with that identity for years, even though the advantage was gone before he started, which we are still suffering from. Even Falvey is waking up to the fact that his concocted identity isn't working. It took Baldelli & Popkins in early '24, to try to reverse this idea to better ABs & baserunning. Instead of manipulating hitters to hit solo HRs when we don't need them & strike out when we do, let them find their own swings & instruct them to have better ABs & be better clutch hitters. Many analysts still think that these big bat types are still our salvation. These big bats types are not only inefficient, but they are also expensive, money & prospects-wise. The fast athletic players are not only better baserunners, they tend to be better defensively & are more cost-efficient. Baldelli, to his credit, has let the players loose to develop their baserunning skills & they are improving. Yet, where does MN stand defensively? How many GG candidates does MN have? Strangely enough, MN only has only one, France. France? They traded him & never took him seriously defensively. They still aren't taking defense very seriously. They position players by their bats, even though they are a big defensive liability, which costs us big time, especially up the middle. They still think they can hide defense-deficient players at 2B. As a small-mid market, it's imperative that we have the right identity that fits us, not always trying to copy NYY. I don't want to be like NYY. Along with a FO that has the right player evaluation & development & is able to make essential trades. Which we don't. Comparing us to MIL is a joke!
- 48 replies
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- byron buxton
- brice turang
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Can the Falvey follow in the Brewers’ footsteps? The answer is no.. 1st of all, MIL is aggressive in knowing what exactly they need, then aggressively going after it in trades. Falvey has no idea what they need & if he finally discovers what they need, he's unable to initiate & close on a good deal. Falvey likes to hold onto his prospects until they lose their hype & become worthless- MIL trades them to fill their needs. The way he produces trades is by having other FOs come to him to fill their team needs & they offer players they don't need that look good on paper & Falvey takes them even though they don't fill an imminent need. Twins are far away & slow in picking up what's going on in the league so turning things around is like turning a big ship. Everything is too slow, too little & too late. What I focus on is catching. MIL has a great eye for catchers, for developing them (Jefferson Quero) & transforming acquired catchers into great defensive ones, MN is terrible at this. MIL constantly develops pitchers & trades them & has other pitchers ready to take their place. MN is getting better, but nothing close to MIL. It's hard to gauge intangibles like fundamentals, defense & baserunning; that's why MN is lagging way behind & MIL is way ahead. IMO, MN is nothing like MIL, unfortunately.
- 48 replies
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- byron buxton
- brice turang
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IMO, one of the greatest assets the Twins have had is their former players coming & helping out the club. For some reason or another, these last few years, these players are going elsewhere. How has this team fared lately? This idea (that you are suggesting) of removing ourselves from former players is a terrible one. We need to get away from being 100% focused on analytics (that has failed) & go to a more baseball smart, fundamental approach. While I'm not for Rowson & Sheldon as managers, I still wouldn't rule out Cruz or Hunter, who could rally the players together, bring in fans & put together a good & different coaching staff. If we go with another (non-Twin) Baldelli, we'll have the same results while paying 2 managers' salaries. "There is reason to believe Minnesota's front office is savvy enough to mold a contender with limited spending resources." I totally disagree with this statement. Falvey has poorly managed the money allotted to him. He tends to overpay FA that he targets, pick up bad salary dumps, doesn't extend players they should & overpay those who they shouldn't. I like our pitching pipeline (although there are many who would debate that). But IMO, they are overconfident in the pipeline, where they don't supplement the rotation sufficiently. This overconfidence led them to totally dismantle the BP w/o any closer candidates, thinking that they could do that w/o any problems, like they have done when they expected Colume', J Lopez, Pagan, & Duffy to fill that role. Our farm system is loaded with poorly developed, AAAA, redundant prospects that Falvey loves to hoard. I have my doubts about them stepping up & contributing to the team any time soon for the team to compete.
- 21 replies
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- derek shelton
- james rowson
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The Latest On Minnesota Twins' Managerial Search
Doctor Gast replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Absolutely, Wash is great on fundamentals & has the most experience, but IMO, he can't handle the rigor & stress of a manager. IMO, on face value, Tori Hunter is the least qualified of the 4 to be a manager. But IMO, Twins' greatest need as a team is healing club & fan culture. Twins need a manager to be a cheerleader & have a good rapport with the players. Hunter has that especially with Lewis, who might be the biggest challenge. Wash probably won't want anything to do with managing but might be persuaded to help his good friend Hunter. IMO, Greene is the best candidate & checks the most boxes like development, a grasp of the game & how to use the BP & is great in supportive roles. It'll take at least a bench coach position to lure him away from MIL.- 73 replies
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- derek shelton
- nick punto
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Buck deserves the honor of being officially the captain of this team. I don't care if he isn't the cheerleader, his character, commitment & devotion to this team more than qualify him. When Buck is on the field, he greatly improves our chances of winning that game. If Buck is the captain, it makes it that much harder for Falvey to quantify trading him.
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It's great when a prospect has quickness & raw power that Winokur has. but are we developing him the maximum as we can as far as we can? He's stealing bases but could he do better? Right now it seems the best opening is utility. It'll take time to possess the instinct that'll help him in CF &SS. It's great that they are working on him being a good AB. He should eventually be an asset on the MLB team. I hope.
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Arbitrary Thoughts: Joe Ryan
Doctor Gast replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Sometimes I wonder how many good trade offers Falvey has passed up because they include his personal favorites that don't pan out.- 51 replies
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- joe ryan
- bailey ober
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Arbitrary Thoughts: Bailey Ober
Doctor Gast replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Twins have been needing a pitcher for veteran innings the past 2 years. IMO, is one of the main reasons the Twins have not been competing. If Ober comes back, great; if not, we still have his veteran innings, which is still valuable. If we trade him now, we'll be selling low & miss his veteran innings even if they don't trade Ryan or Lopez.- 28 replies
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- bailey ober
- travis adams
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The Latest On Minnesota Twins' Managerial Search
Doctor Gast replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Qualifications I like to see are a former catcher who has a good grasp & feel for the game. Knows how to use the BP & leadership while creating a favorable club culture. Focused on fundamentals & know how & when to use analytics. Great player evaluation plus comes from a good organization like MIL or LAD & bilingual. It's impossible to find all these qualifications in one person, so it's imperative to also have a supportive bench coach & coaches. I'd love Rowson as a hitting coach & even Sheldon as a bench coach, but not as a manager. I'd love Tori Hunter as a manager, but he alone is not enough. I'd love Charlie Greene, MIL BP coach, who was a MLB catcher. He's a college manager's son. Has worked with MIL catchers for years, like Willian Contreras & developing Jefferson Quero & knows how to work with pitchers. He'd be a great bench coach & maybe later manager. Nevertheless, a great person to have in the organization. Ron Washington as INF & 3B coach & bilingual Nelson Cruz as hitting & 1B coach. IMO, these guys would make a great team.- 73 replies
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- derek shelton
- nick punto
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Our biggest need that should have been accomplished at the deadline was promising MLB-ready catchers. That wasn't done although a lot of proven players flew out of the organization. If it wasn't done then, I don't see it happening now. We need to restock our farm system???? It's jammed packed with unproven, undeveloped, AAAA, redundant prospects. Which will cause a 40-man roster crunch that'll end up losing good prospects via Rule 5 Draft, even without trading Ryan. If NYM can come up with such catchers, that is the starting point for negociations not before.
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Arbitrary Thoughts: Joe Ryan
Doctor Gast replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
TB traded FOR Cruz, they gave us Ryan, Falvey said OK. It doesn't take anything to do that. Falvey didn't trade FOR Ryan like you said. There's a big difference.- 51 replies
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- joe ryan
- bailey ober
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Arbitrary Thoughts: Joe Ryan
Doctor Gast replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Falvey didn't trade FOR Ryan. TB loved Nelson Cruz & had a surplus of AAA SPs. They APPROACHED Falvey, it was a no-brainer. That trade happened at the deadline & TB was desperate for offense. It was a good trade, Cruz just didn't click with them. Most FO's have the book on Falvey (they'll wait him out & not offer him anything) & the odds of that happening again are slim, especially in the offseason. Twins should have made a killing this deadline with all the great proven talent traded away. I was disappointed.- 51 replies
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- joe ryan
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Arbitrary Thoughts: Joe Ryan
Doctor Gast replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Ryan is a proven SP, which is very hard to come by. Even if he wants to be traded, I wouldn't trade him. Because I don't trust Falvey to get the trade deserving of Ryan or able to make the team better. Sooner or later they may have to trade him because I doubt that they'll be able to extend him, sadly to say.- 51 replies
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- joe ryan
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Amen, brother! In '19, with the juiced ball, the "bomba squad" emerged organically. In '20, after the juiced ball, Falvey artificially adapted the "all or nothing" philosophy & stuck with it until last year. MN is associated with drafting college slow, defensive deficit, big bats. Although, they are slowly getting away from that. They have been slow adapting to new rules, like shift ban, pitcher check back limit & bigger bases. They're stuck on 100% analytics that support this terrible philosophy. Is he capable to completely change his philosophy to more fundamentally smart baseball? I'll have to see it before I'll believe it. This expensive big bat FA (like Gallo) mindset as our solution to our problem, not only doesn't solve our problem, it is an inefficient way to balance the Pohlads' budget. Sell-off wasn't the solution, it was the easy way to cut costs & take the blame off Falvey's incompetence to "it was the players' fault", we need to reset. Then he'll use the excuse "we are rebuilding" for producing a bad team. Will the new manager be able to right the ship when Falvey is determined to have the final say in who this new manager selects as coaches? A total change of mindset to a more fundamental player's evaluation, drafting, development & trading? IMO, Falvey would be totally out of his element. This return to the "piranhas" is absolutely necessary. I hope it happens. Can Punto & Falvey make it happen??????
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Falvey is terribly slow on things that need to be done quickly. But awfully fast on deals like these. Twins got lucky when someone persuaded Baldelli to invite Castro to ST. He did very well, yet Twins still didn't want to put Castro on the 40-man. Fortunately for Castro & Twins fans, due to injuries, he was selected. Now they think they can reinvent that luck. It doesn't work that way. You need true player evaluation.
- 69 replies
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- ryan kreidler
- matt mikulski
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Minnesotans are too gullible & trusting, they'll believe anything. Spoken as a Minnesotan. It's time to wake up.
- 69 replies
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- ryan kreidler
- matt mikulski
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Arbitrary Thoughts: Royce Lewis
Doctor Gast replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Royce Lewis has been hurt a lot & put in short seasons, so in '24, when he was putting in a much longer season, he pure & simple ran out of gas. But everybody wanted to complicate everything. Media made a big deal out of "I don't do slumps" & got into his head, saying "Oh, yes you do". Baldelli said, "I want you to play 2B, whether you want to or not". I also believe he was frustrated that he wasn't getting the INF instruction or in '25 the batting instruction that he needed. IMO, Twins don't do enough instruction that's needed, yet tend to get too complicated in advice. I see too much confusion in Lewis's head, He needs to get back to his old confident self. Twins need to better prepare their players while keeping it simple. IMO, Twins need to mend some fences with Lewis & communicate much better. There is a MVP in Lewis, Twins need to be careful & encouraging because '26 will be a very tough year for the Twins & maybe more so for Lewis. How they respond will make a big difference. -
I like to look at the organization that these coaches come from. So I take priority over MIL & CLE coaches. I like Ron Washington's focus on fundamentals. CO don't fire their coaches so they have a lot of coaching experience. But I wouldn't want to hire any of them, because I don't like the organizational system. With a name like Vazquez, he should be smart, right? Him being bilingual is a big plus. but I can't comment on his baseball smarts , convictions, or philosophy. Which is very important to me.
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It's nice that a manager candidate has experience. But if that experience is in 100% analytics focus, I'd rather they have no experience but a lot of baseball smarts. Baldelli didn't have experience, but he did well because of good players, and most of all, had very good bench coaches in Sheldon & Bell. After they were gone, the problems started.. I agree with all the reasons stated that the Twins lack what Hunter could fill. Another point that Twins lack is fundamentals. Hunter's good friend, Ron Washington (former Twin) is famous for his fundamental success with his time in OAK, TEX, ATL & could have done the same in LAA if given more time. Wash could be instrumental in Hunter's success. Hunter has a lot of contacts that could bring back good coaches to MN. Hunter will have a lot less to work with than Baldelli did. But IMO, what Hunter is lacking, he's open to learn & could become a good manager. The biggest hurdle is putting Falvey in place.
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I don't pretend to know everything. Falvey is very good at pinning the blame on something or someone else. After all these years, you'd think that maybe the problem isn't something else & maybe come to the conclusion that it's Falvey. Today the advice is sit down & shut up. Don't observe, don't think, & don't make an intelligent assumption. Trust the data & BS that the ones in control give you. While everything goes down the crapper. I was a big fan of Falvine, in '19 , I started to see things that didn't add up. Back in my day they taught you how to observe, think & make a reasonable assumption. I guess they don't anymore. It's sit down, shut up & believe what we tell you & everything will be honky-dorey. I wish that was true but it's not.
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This might be hard to believe, but I'm an optimist. But with more & more control, Falvey has taken over, more & more I see Falvey's faults & worse & worse the team becomes (exception of players falling into Falvey's lap in '23). Longer & longer Falvey has free rein, deeper & deeper the hole gets, harder & harder to climb out of the hole. Anything positive that'll come out of this mess won't start to happen until Falvey is gone. Then we can be optimistic again if we get someone in who knows what he is doing.

