Greglw3

I immediately thought the same thing! It’s gotta be somebody good. I wonder the Twins will sign Austin Hays or Ramon Laureano or trade for Arenado?

Gregg, Excellent article, which explores lots of very important nuances! It’s an important topic as nobody really knows if Falvey/Zoll have been directed to a particular figure, nobody really knows what the upper limit they could push is and, as you alluded to in a very revelatory exploration/study, nobody even knows what the Twins salary commitment is as of now. One thing you touched on, that nobody mentions, is that the Twins are the recipient of what would appear to be significant competitive balance money. The Dodgers are paying over ~ $103 MM for their 2024 spending, the Mets $97MM and the Yankees 62.5 MM. Also, Phillies, ~14 MM, Braves $14MM, Rangers ~ $11MM, Astros 6.5 MM, Giants 2.4 MM and Cubs 600 K. A record total of 311 MM in luxury tax payments!!! [Credit Reuters Dec 24, 2025 So we talk about, we can free up $12-17 MM by trading Paddack and Vazquez. But wait, half of the $311 MM is paid to teams needing revenue sharing. Half is paid for player benefits and retirement funds. Straight Arrow News cites ~ $15 per team. Bingo! There’s the $15 MM the Twins need to sign a solid major leaguer, my preference is Jurickson Profar, some disagree with me but it’s a significant factor to consider. PLUS, teams that lost media revenue are able to collect up to $15 MM out of a total pool of $ 75 MM [awfulannouncing.com]. (Media Disruption Distribution) How much of that are the Twins receiving? It’s not easy to find the Twins exact share of revenue sharing so the documented ~ 15 MM is the best I can do, consistent with the complexities you encountered in your fine analysis! I appreciate your article, from one Greg to the other Gregg! https://www.reuters.com/sports/report-3-mlb-teams-paying-bulk-record-311m-luxury-taxes-2024-12-24/#:~:text=The tax rate goes up,to $241 million next season. https://san.com/cc/record-9-teams-will-pay-mlb-luxury-tax-totaling-311-million-in-january/#:~:text=The cumulative $311 million tax,revenue sharing to stay competitive. https://awfulannouncing.com/mlb/teams-payments-lost-media-rights-revenue-15-million.html

I want nothing but the best for the Twins, which is why I would be much more aggressive. I’ve just been frustrated with the FO since the 101-61 season that they could have built on, instead averaging 81.8 wins per year the last 5 years. Not horrible but what happened to the GM that got Cruz, Cron and Schoop and reaped the benefits. He now seems like hibernator in chief. Sorry. I do have to give precedence to the very strong seasons turned in by Profar and Iglesias and I think WInker’s a hitter and this team can always use a .360 OBP. I’m an on-base moneyball believer. I grew up with the Twins in the 1970s when they did nothing but hit, hit and hit some more with Braun, Brye, Holt, Oliva, Carew, Bostock, Glenn Adams, Hisle, Cubbage, Bobby Darwin, Smalley. It’s super tough watching this FO leave the offense vulnerable year after year. If we can get good health from the coming stars in Lee, Julien, Lewis, Rodriguez, Wallner, Keaschall, then we’ll surprise!

It is a good point and a bit more realistic look at what the Twins should have been and should be looking to correct.

It's the team that has talked to him and had him working out there this off-season, if reporting is correct. The Twins ambiguity communication machine hasn’t made it clear yet as far as I can tell. He can probably improve there as Julien did.

Cleveland acquired Luis Ortiz from Pittsburgh, a starter with an ~ 3.20 ERA in about 120 IP last year, they resigned Lane Thomas, they sign Carlos Santana and signed Shane Bieber for maybe half the season. Plus Cleveland drafted Travis Bazzana with the 2024 #1 pick and he’s thought to be close as a 2nd baseman. Tigers added Cobb and Gleybar Torres and could be in on Flaherty and/or Bergman. KC brought back Lorenzen and added Cavan Biggio, Jonathon India and Joey Weimer and extended Michael Wacha for 3 more years. The White Sox got the good haul from the Red Sox, added Cam Boozer and Bryce Wilson from the Brewers 5-4 4.04 last year. The Sox signed Omar Narváez.

Miranda, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, Sands. I like Martin as a likely solid major leaguer. I think Keaschall will very likely be good. I personally like DaShawn Keirsey a lot. I’ve watched this whole off season and Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City and White Sox have all made more significant moves than Twins. The Twins have a lot of needs offensively on a team that’s been inconsistent and sluggish, at best, for the last few years , sprinkled with sub .200 batting averages and low .200 batting averages and the genius acquisition of a .177 hitter. The Mike Ford acquisition was weak. My plan, made in November, had the Twins doing a modest amount in acquiring Profar (still out there), Jose Iglesias, who hit .338 last year to back up Correa and Jesse Winker to play OF and DH, the Winker of the .360 OBP last year, shedding Vazquez, Paddack, Castro’s salaries and I came in at 129.xx MM. Do you disagree with me on any of the 8 question marks? If so, which of the 8 are you confident will likely have relatively healthy and productive seasons? My other positives for the offseason are Cartaya, Gasper (due to his high OBPs and .366 AAA avg and .477 OBP in 200 PA). I think the recent acquisition from Oakland, Armando Alvarez has some chance. I also think the Eiberson Castellanos Rule 5 pick was a good pick. My objection is to not shedding any salary or acquiring major league talent like Profar, Iglesias, Winker. These 3 would help the Twins offense a lot. If the Twins add some real MLB level offensive talent before spring training I’ll up my grade from F upward. Just Profar, Winker and Iglesias, all still available would move it to C+ or B. SO, we’ll see.

I think everyone could agree that if nothing else is done, it’s the worst offseason in baseball and deserves a solid F. I see the Twins with a question mark at every position. C-Two substandard catchers return. Both are question marks, both with horrible BA last year. LF-Larnach has a .236 lifetime BA. Definite ? CF-Buxton is always a ? due to his missing a colossal amount of games virtually every season. RF-Wallner would be my pick as most solid but he had to be sent back down last year for K ineptitude. IF he performs as in 2nd half of last season, he’ll be a ? positively answered. 3B Lee-Can he stay healthy and can he rebound from rookie hitting struggles SS-Correa-Can see stay healthy for the 1st time in 3 years? 2B-Lewis Can he stay healthy and can he overcome a horrid 2nd half slump 1B-? I do like Martin and Keirsey as insurance but they carry their own ? My overriding point is how does the Twins FO feel happy with 8 question marks. Some will be answered positively but highly unlikely all and maybe only 1/3. That’s why they get an F for their miserable offseason.

I think after the HR success of 2019 that Kepler got into pull happy mode and that destroyed his offensive game. It may be worth noting that 3 players who have taken a dive in their offense due to the Twins over emphasis on Home Runs, launch angle, launch speed, may include Kepler, Sano, Austin Martin (who’s hitting cratered when he changed his swing as prescribed by the Twins for more power and hitting recovered when he went back to his old approach). Noteworthy too that the Twins over emphasis on HR has lead to some dreadful strikeout totals the last 5 years and to a horrific signing of Joey Gallo, he of the .177 batting average and near 50% K rate.

Mr. Jocko, I wrote the following in my Twins Daily 25 man roster planner on Nov. 17, 2024:

For a fan of the Twins since the 65 World Series season, it’s come to this but yes, you are right I should get out more! I spend almost all my time making and releasing music but when the Nashville weather gives a break, gotta walk in the sunshine and I’d love to still dance but 2 foot surgeries have made it harder. All credit for a funny comeback line! :-)

On one hand, it seems the Twins could do a better job of communicating with their fan base. One the other hand, actions tell us that they have acquired exactly ZERO MLB players in this offseason. Cleveland, Detroit, KC, and even Chicago have done more. That said, I did like the acquisition in the Rule 5 of Eiberson Castellano, the Phillies Minor League pitcher of the year, the recent acquisition of Diego Cartaya and I love that Mickey Gasper hit .366 with a .477 OBP in AAA in about 200 plate appearances. We need more on base guys on this team. I would still make my best plays for Roki and Jurickson Profar but I don’t expect the Twins to obtain the very obtainable Profar who would really improve the team as the LF over Larnach. My wildest fantasy is the sale is completed in the next month and the Twins sign Profar.

Reminds me of the Tom Tom club’s song 'Wordy Rappinghood', a delightful song!

Even as an often critic of Falvey, given that they’re literally on the budget that I was on as a kid when we went to the Ben Franklin 5 and 10 cent store (usually $1), I like this move a lot. A closer look at his minor league stats shows 4 different stops with very high OBP, upwards of .400 and above. Even last year as a 22 year old, he did hit 11 homers and I think a .354 OBP. I also look at it like, if you’re going to take a guy that couldn’t fit, it’s best to do it from the free spending, talent laden Dodgers. I bet this will age well, you don’t get ranked the Dodger’s #1 prospect for any reason but you’re very talented. I like the Gasper move too due to his on base proclivity. I didn’t like the Mike Ford move. It would be nice if the soon to be owners could say, Hey Derek, you have the green light to expand the payroll by 30 million.

Yep! Now I wish Cody would teach me how to will Jurickson Profar onto our roster!

Salary differential between 2023-2024 White Sox − $142,995,900 -21.07% Twins − $124,077,590 -19.22% Royals − $115,257,261 +24.65% Tigers − $103,834,833 -15.05% Guardians − $93,333,629 +4.37

FWIW, I’m not a fan of ownership or Falvey but I’m possibly generously giving Falvey a bit of a pass due to the unfair financial dictates placed on him by Pohlad, although I think he could have done much better so far. It’s a systemic illness and the only real solution IMO is new ownership (Ishbias?) and firing Falvey and Baldelli and probably Moll. Get a real GM in here who isn’t interfered with by a Falvey type. Keep only Sean Johnson and his staff who recruit so well.

The onus is 100% on the Pohlads who pulled bait and switch by green lighting Correa and Lopez only to cut payroll by ~ 30MM for two consecutive years and that -30MM is worse this year due to inflation. The argument about the comparative payrolls in the Central is specious because the Twins are spending almost 60MM on 2 players. Only 70MM remaining for all the remaining players.

One word. Pathetic. This is rock bottom for the Twins, who have taken a multi year liking to players with low batting averages. Real low, Larnach lifetime .230s, Kepler lifetime .230s, Cave mostly just below or just above .200, Gallo .177, Vazquez low .200s, now this. This guy makes Mickey Gasper look like Rod Carew. I really truly grieve for what my team has become. The Pohlads show no sign of having any heart. Ebenezer Pohlad. As Boris Karloff sang in the Grinch who stole Christmas: "Pohlad. There are three words used to describe you and I quote: 'STINK, STANK, STUNK' ". Give us back our baseball team. Give us back our Joy! ASAP! And this is MY team. And YOUR team, the Pohlads are just caretakers but more like abusers. I was following this team 20 years before these clowns bought the team. It is not theirs. It does not belong to them. In my judgement, they have run it down so far that when they leave, they owe 10,000x the security deposit when they started their rental. They could have signed Jurickson Profar, Jesse Winker and Jose Iglesias if they’d followed my plan and come in at 129.xx MM. Instead they’re signing another absurd player. I honestly think MLB should step in here and take over the team until a buyer is found and before the incompetent Pohlads totally destroy this franchise. Yes, the franchise that Carl tried to sell to Major League Baseball so it could be contracted. He tried his damndest along with Selig.

For me, forget the power, we weren’t going to get a power bat for Moran, and not everyone needs to hit with power nor should they for a well balanced team. His AAA numbers show a .367 batting average and .471 OBP in over 200 PA! I’d bet that there were few, if any who could match that average and OBP both (over 200 PA) in all of AAA. So maybe he can help. I believe more in on base combined with 3 or 4 power hitters for a balanced team. The Twins have come up way short in the OB type players in recent years.

I see Gasper as primarily a 1B/DH who will catch a little if Jeffers or Vazquez has significant injury time. My hope with that astonishing slash line in AAA is that he might be a late developer who’s on base abilities could be important. Me and Billy Beane think alike! Twins have had too many low OBP hitters in recent years. Thus the sluggish offense.

Good article, no disagreements. I am choosing, after some initial doubt, to focus on that spectacular stint at AAA last year. Maybe he becomes a Robbie Grossman type. Best case, I could see him getting significant paying time next year, probably mostly at 1B, DH and C, less at 2B.

I listened to that game from Toledo, Oh on WMAQ with Harry Carey and I think Loren Brown and scored it. I had that scoresheet for many years after! For me, the most memorable game in Twins history!

That Allison catch is definitely high in the list. Oe of the greatest catches in Twins history. The 7th steal of home, I hadn’t seen but a huge moment!

I think it’s more like an adaptation of an animal’s hibernation for humans. Falvey hibernates until January 15, then signs badly injured players or egregiously subpar players. How else do you explain taking a 101 win team and "leading" them to an average of a cumulative 4 games above .500 for the next 4 years total?