Greglw3

With the aggressive layer of teams having signed Heaney, Thor, Rodriguez, Berrios definitely gone, Carlos Correa to the Tigers rumors/reports pretty heavy and Doug’s report that the Twins are not in on Stroman (I hope I got that right)-- with all that, I’m getting the same sinking feeling as last year. There are several teams doing what I’ve insisted the Twins need to do, that is being very aggressive in acquiring quality talent before it’s mostly gone. So far it looks like the Angels, Tigers, Dodgers, possibly Blue Jays with the Yankees lurking as another grabber-of-talent that the Twins could use. I hope they’re not pursuing the cockamamie approach of using a bunch of starters and relievers in a "gang pitching" approach. It seems like every quality player that I’m reading who is in on that player, the Twins aren’t mentioned. All that said, my blueprint with them signing Canha for LF (they should be able to do that now), Iglesias at SS, Robbie Ray as the ace (a tough lift) and Danny Duffy as #2 pitcher (for the life of me, I can’t find any reports on his current health) plus Pineda as #3 is still alive. SIgning Buxton was part of it and based on reports, there’s no excuse for this FO to fail to sign him 100M 120M, it has to get done. Can this FO step up. It’s early so that sinking feeling is possibly premature but we need to see some action, especially with the Tigers behaving like the super-aggressive WHite Sox of 2-3 years back. This is a chance for the FO to win my confidence back. SO far, nothing to indicate their passive approach has changed but the story hasn’t been written yet. I just wish they were showing some spunk like the Tigers and Angels.

I have to agree. All 3 of those prospects could be stars. It would be tempting, especially if doing a quick strike trade could cause a Stroman and Ray to fall to the Twins like dominoes. By the way, if the Reds are interested in Kepler, I have no problem including him in a trade.

I think quite possibly Jeffers will hit and quite possible hit big.

I think it sounds appealing in a way, you’d probably have to have games of 5-2-2. However this is what I was thinking as I read the article until you mentioned it. I couldn’t get it out of my mind as I read. "The downside of this model is that established MLB starters are probably not going to want to sign on for such unconventional and reduced usage. " And that’s a huge consideration. The other thing is you’d probably have to go past the 13 limit and frequently be reaching into the Saints pitching staff. One way it could work is if you signed several very good MLB middle relievers and closers and setup men. From what I’ve noticed, the Twins when using this method with the opener us it as an excuse to start and/or follow up with inferior type pitchers. That’s why to make the plan work, I don’t think you could rely on Dobnak. He is, in my mind, a guy who might surprise but has been too erratic to plan around. I could see Minaya, Ralph Garza Jr., Duffy, etc. being part of a credible group. If that’s what they want to do, they’ll do it but I’m a bit reticent. I think to do it they still need a Stroman or Ray to eat a lot of innings and maybe single handedly put the team 10 games above ,500.

In the name of the well managed by Gene Mauch, Bombo Rivera, I agree on Minaya. He was just plain good!

I’m pretty sure he would pass through waivers, then I think the new team would owe him maybe 600,000 or so and the Twins would owe him the salary of the deal unless there’s a team buyout provision. Don’t hold me to that, though!

I like your current roster as you see it. It gets rid of players such as Cave, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Garlick, Astudillo. I’m leery of Dobnak but they signed him to that long deal which I think was a mistake. From your roster, I’d like to see Kepler traded, maybe as part of a deal for Montas or Bassitt. As you know I’d like Canha as a free agent LF sign. I would pencil in Miranda as the DH/3B/2B. Maybe I’m wrong but I like Contreras with good defense speed and power. I think he’s worth a 40 man roster spot.

Long live the powder blue!!!

Double Ugh!

Iglesias!

I agree wholeheartedly. He dropped a lot of balls. He was a disaster. It would be much better to sign Iglesias and his .271 avg and good defense for $3 M which is the same as Simmons is projected at.

Thanks Nick! I appreciate that, especially coming from you. It was definitely a fun exercise. This way of building a viable roster with the spreadsheet was a really good idea and is the kind of thing that makes Twins Daily special! I think there have been several interesting and creative rosters built! Greg

I would clarify that I think Larnach is going to eventually be close to all star caliber, if not all-star caliber. I just felt that he probably needed to start in AAA, dominate and then come up again. I wish Kepler could reclaim that 75%! I’ve just watched him pull the ball to the 2B/OF way too many times. He seems incapable of or unwilling to adjusting and using the whole field. If he could do that, I’d never think about demoting him. He could easily bunt to the left side, take a tip from Rod Carew and raise his average and help the team a lot and get the other team out of that shift that has been his Waterloo. I hope Falvey and Levine read Twins Daily because I think several of us are showing the aggressiveness necessary to build a contender, next year!

I really like what you did! You stretched the payroll the same way I did, mine was to 142.1 M. I like your full time promotion of Miranda! - I did the same thing. You saw the necessity of innovating in the OF, which is a key for next year. If Celestino is ready, that could be a real nice OF. We agree that Kirilloff is needed to strengthen a perilously fragile OF. Getting McHugh and Knebe is a really great strike. I wanted McHugh but used 8M to get Canha in LF, moving Kirilloff to RF. Our rotations are similar. You were very clever the way you got that big 3. I had Ray, Danny Duffy and Pineda with the same 4 and 5 as you in Ober and Ryan. If we could get that roster that you compiled for 140.6, I would be thrilled! Take a look at my roster, if you like. The main point is that I really want Levine and Falvey to go aggressively after it like you did and like I did! Do they read Twins Daily??? Greg Allen

Overall, I like what you did with the rotation, giving Miranda a big role, Gordon and the lineup moves. The only thing that I think a lot of Twins fans may be overlooking, admittedly arguably, is that they will be repeating the same mistake with the OF as they did last season. Kepler is a .211 hitter. I’ve never seen a corner outfielder who hit .211 who was a plus, SABR statistics notwithstanding. And Larnach hit in the .220s. In my workup I signed Mark Canha as the left fielder and moved Kirilloff to RF. I honestly think Kirilloff can blow away what Kepler is contributing. He’s really talented. Now we have a strong OF. We did the same thing with the rotation but with different names. Yours is a little more creative.

A pitcher with a 3.62 ERA in the #5 spot? I see him as a solid #3.

I agree on Ray. See my workup using the format that Nick Nelson used - in Greg Allen’s blog.

All I can say, Cody is that I’m 100% in agreement with you! See my blog post using Nick’s spreadsheet. In that SS, Robbie Ray is the #1 starter. Danny Duffy #2. A top shelf ace is a must for a team in the position of the Twins!

It looks like we’re in the same age cohort! That makes me feel better, in that you have a full understanding about the cheap owners we’ve had since the start of the franchise especially the Calvin years where he let Bostock, Hisle, Ford, Carew, Bill Campbell, Ward, Goltz all walk. Man, that period was really rough!!! I may be overestimating Jim Pohlad’s spending vis a vis the desire to win but based on his statements, I’ve concluded that he would go that high. If I’m wrong, I probably need to rework my spreadsheet! If they need to trade for payroll purposes, Kepler and Donaldson would be the most obvious choices. I don’t think they’d get much for Kepler. If they traded Donaldson, they could either play Miranda at 3rd, provided he’s ready or open up 3rd base for Arraez. Maybe they could get a viable LF for Donaldson, probably not a frontline pitcher. Another option for a backup for Buxton is Billy Hamilton. I know he doesn’t hit much for average but he has great speed and I think he’s a sensational CF. He kind of fits in with the whole thought process I had about the possibilities of a player being a net asset, when he couldn’t hit. Buxton had shattered that theory for me a few years back when he was hitting about .160 but I felt he was still a net asset to winning due to his dominant fielding. I think Hamilton could do something similar. Well, strap in and get ready for the ride and I’m really curious where the payroll ends up and who is gonna pitch. There’s so much work to do! ,

Generally payrolls go up over time so from 130 to 141.1 is about an 8.5 increase, nothing radical. And the Twins have said they want to win a WS. With the decimation of the roster, it’s going to cost a few dollars. JP will get it back in 38,000 crowds. JP has often said he’ll stretch if his baseball people thing it’s prudent. The Twins are also the recipients of revenue sharing checks. This years should be substantial. Kepler’s career home runs are way behind Sano’s (160 in 7 seasons for Sano, 120 in 7 seasons for Kepler) plus Sano had a much better slugging percentage . Sano adapts. (.466-.413). Kepler doesn’t. No other than Justin Morneau pointed out Kepler’s deficient approach repeatedly on the Twins TV broadcasts, even calling Kepler stubborn. He reminds me of Hosken Powell and the way he pull happied his way into oblivion. Speaking of the OF, I think Canha, Buxton and Kirilloff will be far better than Cave/Larnach, Buxton and Kepler. I’m surprised you questioned Miranda. He just dominated AA and AAA this season in a way few ever have including .340 plus batting averages at both stops and over .900 OPS, 30 HR. Tom has him rated as the Twins #1 prospect and I agree. He has zero to prove in AAA. Of course this is a dream. But it’s my dream that Nick invited me to post. So many times I’ve wished that I could GM the Twins with the way Calvin Griffith totally destroyed the team from 1971 well into the 80s. You probably have to have lived through that. Then Terry Ryan’s abysmal 2nd term as GM, making awful trades and decisions (too many to list, D.O.) Now this regime with mind bogglingly bad decisions and yes that includes Eddie Rosario So this is my chance to say, the Twins have been too cheap for a long long time with exception of McPhail’s term and this is my chance to say raise the payroll, knowing that JP is the owner most likely to do so. It’s just an opinion piece but if you look real hard in my post, you’ll see that it comes from a fan that is extraordinarily passionate about the Twins and has followed them for over 50 years and seen lots of mismanagement. I just want to win. And a big cleanup is needed, so no half steppin’! Get bold, spend a moderate amount of additional money and try to turn this mess around. If trades will deliver a LF or starters, then that’s OK by me BUT as somebody here in Twins Territory referred to the current Twins roster as a dumpster fire, it’s hard to see where they have excess to obtain quality players. As you say, hold on. But my opinion is that Falvey and Levine need to reverse course and have a vastly better offseason than last. Or they should go. WIN TWINS! Oh and I signed Buxton to a long term deal for 6 years and give deference to what he thinks is fair. The contract would escalate and with incentives could be $25 M / year.

Here’s my Twins 2022 roster. Like Nick’s plan, there are moving parts where Donaldson DHs a decent amount and Miranda plays 3B, 1B, DH. Kirilloff takes over for Max Kepler in RF. Kepler just hasn’t been able to change from an ineffective pull first approach. I see Kirilloff as a hitter who can use more of the field and still blossom into a very fine hitter. Hopefully the second-half Sano shows up next year. I’m optimistic about that. I chose Iglesias as the SS for good D and his .271 average, much better than Simmons but for the same price. I chose Mark Canha for LF, liking his prior 26, 17, and 16 HR seasons. And last year walking 77 times, stealing 12/14 bases, scoring 93 runs. Even with a .231 average, he had a .358 OBP. In any case, he should be much better than Cave, Larnach in 2021. Like Nick I’m signing Byron Buxton with an escalating deal and incentives. I’m banking on Jose Miranda to log 500-550 ABs. I like the Saint’s Mark Contreras as the 4th OF with Jimmy Kerrigan as an alternative at AAA. For the rotation, I’m signing Robbie Ray as the ace with Danny Duffy as the #2 starter. That’s a significant part of my 142.1 million dollar payroll. I think Jim Pohlad will go for that. If they can’t get Ray, then Syndergaard and Verlander are other ace options. I’m bringing back the steady Michael Pineda, his 9-8 record and 3.62 ERA. Both sides want a reunion, so it’s just a great fit. Ober and Ryan start as #4 and #5 starter. I’m one who thinks Charlie Barnes will eventually be a solid major league pitcher but maybe not next year. Cole Sands could be another guy getting some starts for the Twins. Duran has a lot to prove. He would be a bonus. I filled out the BP with some of the most talented AAA relievers and Ralph Garza Jr. who did a good job. Alcala’s continued growth will be a big and important factor. I really like Nick Gordon and hope Rocco steals with Buxton, Canha and Gordon so the offense is more balanced. Celestino also provides depth and could easily be up with the inevitable injuries. I like Kerrigan’s 19 HR and 10/12 SB. I also want to emphasize that I do think that once Rooker gets the requisite amount of ABs at the ML level, he should hit 30 HR with a .240 -.270 average. So, he’s in play also depending on injuries.

I generally agree with your projected lineup and backups except for the outfield. In my opinion the OF should be a free agent, Schwarber would be nice, maybe Canha or even Rosario if he would come back and the Braves would let him go, which I think is unlikely. Buxton in CF, we agree. Then, we need Kirilloff in RF. Kepler has been out of whack for a long time and has passed up on the opportunity to stop pulling virtually everything, often to the 2nd baseman in short RF. Any breakthroughs by Celestino and others will be a bonus. I do have a feeling that when he has batted enough times in MLB, Rooker will still be good but shouldn’t be penned in for 2022. I have a lot of confidence in Kirilloff and he would be a major upgrade over Kepler. I like your mention of Cole Sands as a possible breakthrough starter and agree Varland has a chance. Miranda needs 500-550 AB and could figure at 3rd, 1st and DH. I think the very first thing to do is make an all out, super agiegressive attempt to sign Robbie Ray and Danny Duffy (and Buxton, of course).

It really is a horrible trade suggestion!

I’m a big believer in Nick Gordon’s talent and his goodness as a fit for being a Twins asset for several years.

I like your thinking, especially on the starting rotation. We couldn’t be more in sync about that. Duffy and Ray would be a fantastic get and could be #1 and #2 and Pineda #3.