Brandon

The Cubs drafted college players and have more resources then the Twins being in Chicago. the Twins drafted highschoolers so it will be a few years before they are as developed as the players the Cubs took. Give them time enough of them will come around.

There has been a lot of talk on here calling for Terry Ryan to get fired. I disagree with that assesment and instead of arguing i figured to make the scenarios into a game of who is at fault? Terry Ryan, The player, or something else....Also I will make this a series starting with the rotation today then the bullpen, IF and C, then OF and prospects. In 2013 Terry Ryan signed Phil Hughes to a 3 year 24 million contract. in 2014 he posted strong numbers and basically justified the whole contract the first season. So the Twins signed him to another 3 year extension for 42 million more. At the time this was a great move because if the Twins waited one season and Hughes performed he would have been a 100 million plus player. so potentially getting a 100 million player for 42 million was a steal. and even if he regressed some he still should have justified the contract. So the next year he had back problems and lost velocity and effectiveness. then this year he was hit by a line drive but also is having shoulder surgery. (a result of overcompensating for the back injury) next year we hope he can return to form and be a solid pitcher. Whose fault is this? I would say injuries and maybe Hughes depending on how he prepared in the offseason. Its debatable. But I'm going to go with injury to blame. Terry Ryan did his job in getting a deal on two different contracts and injury is wrecking the value in the second one. When we signed Ervin Santana he was rated the 4th best starting pitcher that offseason in an offseason with lots of starting pitchers available. Terry Ryan did something we clamored for in making a big signing in free agency. and the cost to sign him was reasonable. We didn't know that Ervin did steroids thus hurting his value in season 1 and was inconsistent too. this year his performance is lagging but he has had a little value as a 4th starter even though he was signed to be a 2nd or 3rd. He is not quite averaging 6 innings per start this year. I would blame Ryan some for the value received so far but the real blame has been the performance of the pitcher and his personal decisions to not watch the supplements he is taking. though it could be expected that Santana would decline some over the contract so I'm going 30% blame on Ryan and 70% on Santana for the decision to sign Santana and him not providing the value we were looking for. Signing Nolasco. lets be honest my expectations for Nolasco was a pitcher with around a 3.75 to 4.25 era and pitch 180 to 200 innings. the first season he tried to justify the contract by pitching through the injury he had and made things worse for his record. The second season he was injured and dealt with it. but missed a lot if time. when heathy he was 5-0 and had an era of 3.77 in the month of May. in the 3 starts and relief appearance in which he was hurt he was 0-2 with a sky high era. I blame the second season on the injury and a little on Nolasco for some of his quotes which seem lackadaisical about the team. This season Nolasco has been healthy and averaged 6 innings per start and is on pace for 192 innings. while his era is about .5 runs more than we like he is overall not far off from what I expected from him. there is no blame for this season as he is pitching near enough to expectations. It would be nice if he lowered his ERA a half run per 9 innings. in summary season 1 of Nolasco's contract is 100% Nolasco's fault. his second season is 20% Nolasco's fault and 80% injury. This season there is minimal blame as he is close to expectations. Millone: He was signed to be a 5th starter. the track record is there but he is having a bad season with the Twins this year. I would blame Ryan for the signing but not much because he has a track record of pitching a solid 5th starter innings but he doesn't have that much talent despite the results and Millone is only on a 1 year contract for 4.5 million which isn't too much money or long term commitment either. but Terry Ryan also has 3 or 4 options already set to join the rotation so it wasn't like Terry Ryan wasn't prepared with contingencies. so for Millione I blame Millone for being ineffective and I would blame Ryan except he had the team with Nolasco, Berrios and others ready in case he Millone wasn't effective. so I blame 25% Millone and 25% Ryan and 50% others who haven't stepped up to take his spot away from him. Gibson: He is still making less than 600k so the blame at this point this year is injury. Terry Ryan had plans in place for injuries. with 8 potential starters we had the depth in case of injuries. no one has stepped up. Duffy: he was given a spot in the rotation based off of his minors track record and his job he did at the end of the season. Since Terry Ryan had contingencies going into the season I blame the player for not stepping up and running with his opportunity Berrios, Dean, and Meyer: I blame Ryan for not giving Meyer a few more outings but that is minor in the grand scheme. I do think it was a great experience for Berrios to come up early for 4 starts. he wasn't up long enough to get discouraged but he got a chance to learn and now knows what to expect when he comes back up. I view Dean as filler. He can pitch a decent start as a fill in . So overall There is some blame for Ryan for the state of the rotation but overall the young players Duffy mainly hasn't stepped up to win the job, Injury is to blame for Hughes and Gibson's season. and Millone wasn't expected to be great but with all the injuries we needed at least what he did last year and he regressed. Nolasco is closest to expectations so no blame this year and Santana has been less effective then expected and that is 10-20% injury as he did go on the 15 day DL but the rest falls on him. How do you feel about these observations? From Where I sit I cant tell if Molitor has any blame for the rotation maybe you can let me know. I will do the bullpen next and at the end we can tally it all up and see where the blame for this season goes.

Suzuki is hitting .270 with gap power and i think the answer is more rest. I'm ok with potentially keeping Suzuki 1 more year if we don't get a big upgrade. he cant get more than 400 plate appearances in a season or 80 in a month. We do need a mix of veterans and young players. I think the Twins trade Ervin Santana, Plouffe, and maybe Abad and if possible Jepsen. Nunez too May to the rotation makes sense. Bring up Chargois. Polanco, and Berrios after he shows better control for a few more starts. maybe Wheeler.

if there is one thing I trust the Terry Ryan to do is raid others minor league talent. We've made some real good trades in that department. While I am in no hurry to necessarily trade anyone as I think we have a core to build off of, we more than anything need the younger players to develop. Buxton, Polanco,Kepler, Duffy, Park, Rosario, Berris, Meyer, May. Chargois and others. we also need health too. we lost Perkins, Plouffe, Gibson, Santana, Escobar, and Santana for parts or most of the season. This is most of the reason for our team failure this year. Yes a few players slumped, Ervin Santana, Plouffe, Dozier, Nolasco May, Gibson, and Millone But a few are doing well Nunez, Abad, Tonkin, Grossman while Escobar and Mauer are solid the only real failures this year are Jepsen and Fien. I said all of that to say this. I don't think we need to trade anyone at this time but I wouldn't be against it either.

Can you lend me $10.00 so I can make a bet?

The cubs drafted college player the Twins drafted highschoolers. The Twins players probably deserve another 2 or 3 seasons to compare. I guess comparing the draft strategy is fair.

If your looking for someone to trade.... Nolasco has averaged 6 innings per start and has decent starts around a few clunkers. If he can go on a run he may have value now that he is showing he is healthy and can provide innings. I think Dozier is fine here. I do think Polanco is more the hitter we should be targeting for 2nd base but I think keeping Dozier is not the end of the world either.

I think the Twins did have a plan. Hughes, Nolasco, Santana, and Gibson are all number 3/4 starters at the time of their signing and Gibson was developed through the farm everyone seems to forget that one. but the Twins went through a few years of bad drafts and have since accumulated lots of prospects they are starting to bring up and they struggled and a few veterans struggled and a few others were injured. The mistake I see is the lack of on base percentage in offense. The Twins formula is average rotation of #3 starters 1-5 and above average bullpen hence the fireballing relievers on the way in the minors. Its coming just not this season. and the 2nd part is good defense, smart baserunning and above average offense. that formula gives a winning record. but slumps of players who should be productive and rookies not ready killed the offense. but if the pitching picks up and buxton, sano, kepler, Park, improve then they can be a .500 team the second half and build momentum towards next year.

I think Ben Revere has justified his pick. He has been a solid big leaguer. How many teams are saying they would rather had Revere as their first rounder? that would be a fun exercise to add to this one. which picks before the Twins would gladly swap with the Twins?

looks like we are drafting the younger guys to start a new wave of talent along with Wander Javier SS after the current wave makes its way up and has time to play together and starts getting traded or leaving as free agents. Next year we'll draft lots of high schoolers and then after that start getting college players again. So the players can all come up at the same time.

Burdi was drafted by the White sox so it will be brother against brother matchups down the road in the pen.

You need to go back and reread the comments when the extension occurred. we were happy.

When we signed Santana the free agent starts were 2 150 million pitchers, Shields, and the Santana then there was a clear drop in talent and we paid 55 million. That was a good deal. Hughes had a Cy young calibre season and signed a 3 year extension for number 3 starter money. At the time we as in twins daily participants were happy with these signings.

1. With Hughes the options were 1. He could have a second good season and cost over 100 million to extend or 2 he could have played out his contract and been a free agent we couldn't afford or 3 the 3 year 42 million extension he did sign which put him under contract through age 32 or 33. We all loved that extension at the time.because we all thought we were getting a number 2 starter for number 3 starter money. 2. Perkins also provides a hometown hero. There is something to be said for things like that for the casual fan and signing him to an extension for 60 to 70 cents on the dollar so he can stay here is a gentleman agreement for a no trade clause. Pelfry was a bad signing. But it occurred when we had no pitching options and as a whole inexpensive and he wanted to be here. He was solid the year we contended. That makes his cost worth it. Capps, I was no fan of Capps but he cost less than other closers. I would have resigned him for less if I thought he could save 30 games a year at a cost of 60 cents on the dollar. Especially with the other financial commitments we had back then. But I would prefer he be signed as a middle reliever or not at all.

Of course I am talking about Hughes. He had a monster year and if he had another year like it would have been a 150 million pitcher. signing him to a 3 year 42 million extension giving us 5 years of control through his what age 32/ 33 season seemed like a bargain at the time. Perkins signed below market extensions which was a smart move. Pelfry was an inexpensive signing to eat innings when we were real bad ...meaning no minor league talent as well as no major league talent. Capps was Smith as GM not Ryan.

I look back at the last few off seasons and was happy at the results each time from Terry Ryan. Last offseason we all thought here the best thing to do was stand pat. They brought in new catchers who have not worked out but Abad has been better than expected. Park has been better than expected. and PAlka is a good prospect. The year before we signed the 4th best starting pitcher in free agency and Torii, extended a Cy young calibre pitcher for 3 years and 14 million. We all thought the Nolasco signing was good at the time. This season has been the perfect storm of what all could go wrong. Mauer quit hitting after the first few weeks. Plouffe Gibson Santana, Perkins Escobar have been hurt, none of the young players have stepped up except Duffy. Nunez has come out of nowhere glad Terry Ryan kept him around. Others have slumped. The most questionable move I've seen made was the 2 year extension to Suzuki but I haven't seen many better available options that were reasonable in cost. I think most of the mess will fix itself in time. Provided some of the youngsters bounce back. Plouffe will be a solid player. Mauer will either go back to hitting or get moved to the bench in the next year, Sano will learn to make adjustments, Buxton is the CF of the future, we have bullpen reinforcements on the way plus starting pitcher options. The team has to get over the shock that they weren't ready this year and maximize the opportunities to prepare for next year.

The biggest issues on the team this year stem mostly from the youth, Buxton, rosario, Sano, Murphy. Berrios and Meyer are still new and going through learnig curves while injuries claimed 2 vets Gibson and Santana. Suzuki,and Fien was terrible, and so was Millone. When 8 or 9 players on the team are awful. Solid players can't make up for that and win. Also try doing the study off of average service time instead of age and see how we compare. Oroark is a 27 year old rookie

I could see the Twins extending Suzuki for 1 year and a base of 2million and goes up to 6 or even 7 or 8 million based on plate appearances to help mentor in Stuart or the other catcher in AA I can t remember his name right now.

Last year, this year and next year will be the debut season of the next generation of Twins. If I remember the 1982 Twins were rookies that went on to be the core of winners of the 1987 and 1991 world series. in 1997, 98 99,00 and 01 were the rookie seasons for the core of the 6 division winning teams from 2002 to 2010. Let that timeline marinate a little...

I can see the DFA of Fien, He was bad in spring training and year to date. something had to be done. Millone could have had a few starts or he would be a good chip to send to the Angels right about now as their pitchers are dropping like flies. As long as they can keep Graham and Roark. I wasn't a fan of Roark but he did get lefties out and that has value to someone out there. as I see it the problems were mostly offense with Rosario which nothing has been done, Buxton, demoted, Dozier who seems to have righted the ship, and Catcher where they are both awful but Murphy was making Suzuki look like a great hitting C. at least Murphy was demoted. Fix the offense and fix the loosing for the most part.

With the way Fien has pitched in spring and now I am not surprised to see him designated for assignment. I am a little surprised about Millone as he could pitch himself back and have some value in a trade. plus while we do have other pitchers we are still hurting our depth in case of injury. This also makes me think the Twins want to give Meyer more starts soon as he moves up the depth chain too.

While the Twins have been bad the combined records of the teams they played so far is 19-5 or 10-5 when not playing the Twins. The Twins could have won 1 or 2 of those games and most of the games they were in. I think the Twins aren't as bad as their record but any hopes of competing and being above .500 this year are becoming less likely by the day.

you can also look at the hold statistic. Its like a save for middle relievers. but that only counts in games where the Twins have the lead when the reliever is pitching.

love the punto / sano analogy. good article.

If Nolasco is healthy he will be his usual 12-15 game winner with 180 innings. solid but not great. one of the better 5th starters in the league. That's what he's always been. He was on track for that last year too.