Riverbrian

I'm with ya all the way... with one rather large exception. I haven't given up on Paddack as a starter yet. Yeah I know... that's my opinion and therefore cross to bear. I hadn't given up on Varland as a starter either but now I'm ready to put Varland in the pen. I think the Twins on paper have the makings of a top of the league bullpen without Paddack. A top of the pile left hander with Gas like Tanner Scott or Chapman would be the perfect addition in my opinion. Sign someone like that... The Bullpen is good to go. They can always throw Paddack into the pen later in the year if a hole develops and the starter thing isn't working out. With Paddack... I just think the guy has stuff and I'm not ready to give up on that stuff as a starter. We will need the depth.

I'm not paying for Star Tribune access so I can't read the article. But I can see the headline and read Nick's synopsis of it and Nick's additional thoughts on it. I'm really not sure why lofty language like "Rebuild" is being used at all. 1. If I'm allowed one request. I'd probably ask for what you are saying. Please.... please... please... no innings eaters, please no specialists who possess one skill. Take the money you are spending on multiple players of this ilk, combine that money and get one player above this level of player. If this is the point of Patrick Ruesse... sign me up. Nick is stating that the Twins can't rebuild. I agree it's a bad idea but can't... is false... they could... they could activate a massive rebuild very quickly. Trade Lopez, Ober and Ryan. Trade Duran and Jax. The prospect haul would be substantial. We would be in full rebuild mode with Buxton and Correa hanging around. I wouldn't do that. My request is yours... not spending money on innings eaters or specialists is all I ask.

I have been wrong before. I will be wrong again. I am under the impression that those on the extreme edges are wrong more often but will not admit or recognize being wrong. But who knows… I could be wrong about that.

I’m a centrist in most everything. I’m such a centrist that my first thought is… Who is Richard Y. Chappell? He writes logically but I don’t know who he is? It’s hard to pull me a direction. I’m a centrist. Politically… I have no yard signs. I prefer to stay out of manipulation because manipulation is all it is because manipulation is what moves the needle. I’ve had many conversations (not willingly) with passionate participants on both sides and both sides scare the pants off me. It’s black and white to both sides. It’s almost life and death… they speak in absolutes. These people are going to vote… they are going to decide. The people who act like a grand canyon of real estate exists between 83 Wins and 87 wins scare the pants off of me. They will also vote and I have no pants. Like Mike Sixel has been saying lately… It’s a dial… not an on/off switch. Like I’ve been saying for a long time. The Margins are THIN… Paper thin.

I can’t speak on the resumes of the Twins staff… but that entry level compensation for these positions is going to bring in entry level. In consideration of the important work being done in finding and developing a better baseball player. I have often wondered if baseball franchises have it backwards by pursuing expensive free agents and relying on interns in the front office. Maybe they would get more bang for their buck to change the pay scale for front office personnel to bring in the best and the brightest analysts, scouts, coaches. By doubling their salary to entice the best and the brightest… they might produce an extra one, two or three better baseball player and that just might pay for itself. Just a wonder in my head. To take a left turn from that… When I think of “starting with reasonable numbers and the wrong things being done with them”. I think about that focus on the left handed batter vs the left handed pitcher. Too much focus on the 25% of left handers who throw pitches. They should be focusing on the 75%. To me... that's taking accurate measurable data and getting the application completely backwards.

Playing Devils Advocate. Very rarely do I see a new plan work right out of the box. Typically… It makes its debut… followed by the originally unplanned necessary corrections to the plan. Granted… I’m not talking about space travel with highly combustible stuff around human beings in space suits. They should probably test that kind of thing over and over and over again.

As Mike Sixel has been saying recently… It’s a dial… not an on/off switch. I don’t ask for absolutes because they can’t be given… especially in baseball. You have a 36% chance of this guy reaching base compared to a 34% chance of this guy reaching base. If the 66% happens to rear its ugly head. People tend to act like that 36% guy was 100%. I find it odd that so many can expect the level of perfection that they do. I’m sure that auto-mechanic who is pissed off because Jeffers struck out with one out and the bases loaded has never made a mistake in his own life… but in his quest for perfection from others… I’d ask him to at least consider if he would be so mistake free in the garage if other auto-mechanics were trying to knock the wrench out of his hands while he is trying to get his job done. If I was looking for a General Manager replacement. One of the first things that I would look for is the humility to know without a doubt… that it is an inexact science. I want the candidate to know that they are going to be wrong often… I want them to know that it’s not what they do but what they do after. If a GM candidate is giving me absolutes. I’d tell him to run for political office… because the voters eat that absolute crap in big spoonful’s even though it’s nowhere near reality.

I'm glad we agree on Bullet Point 1 and on bullet point 3... I also don't like the use of spreadsheet because it is used disdainfully around these parts. I'm a little surprised that you have a dispute with bullet point 2. It's really not a strawman at least not intended to be. I was very careful to use "predictive" "previous data" in my post. Of course your team of analysts are still working. I would never suggest such things. But... let me list two thoughts for your consideration so we can try to remove some straw. 1. Small Sample Sizes and the Long Game. 2. Roster Adjustment difficulty. That predictive data is used to compile your roster. Rosters are set in the spring. Once set... adjustments are hard to make because the decent replacements are on other rosters and those not on rosters are most likely not on a roster for a reason and you are not going to be in a hurry to make those adjustments even if you could... because you shouldn't adjust on small samples. Of course, the analytic staff is still working. The information that they compile is important because it can be passed on to hitting and pitching coaches in the moment . The slider is eating you up... Let's try this. Your changeup isn't moving and has lost it's effectiveness. Let's try this. If the player is capable of adjustment... he just might confound previous data. However, you can't make that predictive data (that built your roster) work for you in a small sample. You have to play the long game. Margot isn't going to be released after producing a .508 OPS in April. It was the data that brought him here. It's the increasing of that sample... the long game... that keeps him here still pinch hitting in September despite 0-30. Meanwhile... someone somewhere... don't ask me who because I don't know... but someone... somewhere... there is a player in AAA who is cranking out 4 digit OPS because he fixed a hole in his swing... because he is listening to his coaches who are still coaching him... yet he remains frozen for lack of opportunity while the organization waits for the Margot numbers to arrive... and often times... they just don't arrive. All teams have this quandary to reckon with... although... some are more stubborn than others. This is where I usually come in conflict with whatever is guiding the decision making. I admit that I get a little impatient here but... I come by it honestly because I never want to see another Logan Morrison again. In the lineup every damn day.

I Appreciate the research on this post. It gives the post cred in my opinion. Lots of people want a set lineup. My question is... How exactly do you do that? The numbers you list in your research. How much of that was scheduled days off? How much was injury? If injury is prevalent and it sure seems to be every year. How do you keep a static lineup knowing a cannonball will roll through it at any moment? How do you staff a 26 man roster in preparation for that cannonball of injury or unexpected Julien like poor performance. I agree with you that scheduled days off are questionable. The players they tried to load manage ended up getting hurt anyway but how can a team use a set lineup in the face of everything that punches a team in the head. You list 8 players from other teams. Do the Twins have anybody like that who remained healthy? Santana and Castro led the team in AB's because they stayed healthy and were switch hitters. Our version of Bobby Witt didn't.

My apologies... I didn't intend for this reaction. Hosken made me laugh... after that I was just being me. It's an interesting discussion... To get it back on the rails. What each team prioritizes interests me. Every team has data... to not utilize analytics would be a big disadvantage... every one has the same data... which limits the advantage though. There is so much data that any attempt at a composite is just going to leave a huge pile in the middle. They will have to do some picking and choosing to pull players out of that middle. So I imagine that what teams emphasize is going to cause variance from team to team. That could be why the Twins would pinch hit in the 3rd inning when other teams don't. Even though everyone has the same data.

I asked "When people say Rocco only cares about the spreadsheet in an attempt to vilify him. The first thing that pops into my head... how do they know what is on the spreadsheet. How can they be sure that Rocco didn't ignore the spreadsheet instead of faithfully follow it? Hosken Bombo Disco brought up a perfect scene from a Few Good Men. Jack Nicklaus playing the character of Colonel Ketchup is being grilled by Ted Cruz playing the role of Lt. Coffee. With Nicklaus on the witness stand. Lt. Coffee: Any Chance Howie Kendrick ignored the spreadsheets? Colonel Ketchup: Ignored the spreadsheets? Coffee: Any Chance he forgot about it? Ketchup: No Coffee: Any Chance that Howie Kendrick left your office and said the Analysts are wrong? Ketchup: No Coffee: When Howie Kendrick spoke to the team and ordered the players to pinch hit for Larnach... any chance they ignored him? Ketchup: You ever played a major league baseball game, son? Coffee: No Sir Ketchup: Ever faced a 98 mile per hour fastball? Coffee: No sir Ketchup: Have you ever placed your bat in another man's hands and asked him to put his in yours. Coffee: No sir Ketchup: We follow analytics, Son. We follow analytics or people strikeout. It's that simple... Are we clear? Eventually, this leads to "You can't handle the truth. Alan Arkin is a great screenwriter. Perhaps the best.

This was a perfect post.

Ahh I see. Derek wouldn't need to fire me. I would just be killed off.

Tough to find a decent job that doesn't require politics, answering to multiple supervisors with conflicting ideas and trying to pull them into one. multi-tasking, making lemonade out of lemons. I've been married a while with kids to raise so I'm properly trained for whatever they require of me. Unless of course... You mean a Target red shirt. Then... I'll put that redshirt on and study up on what aisle the kitty litters is in.

No reason at all. It could be any number of things. DJL44 has a theory as valid as mine. DJL44... you and I are all watching from the bleachers. Lavine is a risk taker. I believe someone in the front office is because once he arrived we started taking those risks. They have been less risky in the past two years. That would frustrate me if I want to do well in my job. When things fall apart... fingers get pointed. Was Thad being held accountable for the things falling apart. Did he feel it was justified if that was what was happening. Does 2 and 2 add up to 4... I don't know. It sure seems to me that he had a pretty damn good job but who knows... maybe it was a mental hell. BTW... Derek Falvey if you are reading this. Give me a call. I'll take the job if offered. Salary negotiable. I am admittedly taking pieces from the personal experiences of my personal square peg with no idea if it's a round or square hole at 1 Twins Way. What would it take for you to leave your job in Chicago? What would it take for you to leave your job in Chicago and not have something else lined up? The multiple possible answers to these questions are the only clues that I have to work with. Those clues are not sufficient for the large number of possible explanations or any combinations of.

Without knowing anything specific. My mind tends to drift toward what you are saying as plausible. Most people when they leave a job... have another lined up. Typically those that don't have another one lined up are being forced out or they leave because they are upset about something. If you don't think the situation is conducive to success... you get those resumes out and find another position. When things fall apart... fingers get pointed. People don't like being pointed at and they will point back. Again... I don't know anything specific. Anything in my head is irresponsible grasping at straws based on some experience on how straws are made in other professions.

My post about money was an attempt to lead people exactly where I wanted them to go. I can only assume (I don't know) that you were misled because you want it to go someplace else The Tigers were 52-57 prior to the trade deadline. They went 34-19 after shedding (I'm not looking up the exact numbers) 80 million worth of the 100 million they spent this season via trade, release, minimizing the role and placing on the inactive playoff list and of course the disputed Javier Baez injury. Leaving approximately 20 million worth of ball club (according to what they currently are paid) to make up significant ground in a short period of time and knock off the Houston Astros in the first round. There is no way that you don't understand my point. I'm not suggesting that every team should try this. I'm not even suggesting that money isn't important and I'm sure the Tigers will attempt to fortify this young club in the off-season next year because they have plenty of money to play with. But today as it stands... the Tigers turned their season around and have advanced to the next round with a roster of about 20 million worth of ball club. I'm suggesting that the Tigers are just another example that money isn't the be all end all, I'm suggesting that I'm not afraid of youth and I'm suggesting making the playoffs is significant.

My minimum expectation is meaningful baseball in September. If they get to that point... they can get to the playoffs... if they get to the playoffs... they can win it all. This front office has been in charge for 5 seasons of meaningful baseball out of 8 years if my math is right. I'd like to see a little better than that but I know that it could be a whole lot worse. Case in point... the previous front office... produced 1 season of meaningful September baseball in 6 years prior to the new front office arriving. .

That is my point and you understand what I meant by it.

IMO... The Twins organization was seemingly frozen in place before they arrived. They didn't spend money and they didn't develop talent. IMO... When these guys came aboard... the organization started moving again. They made some big mistakes and they made some good things happen but in total... we have been better off... while yet... not all the way there. This is why no movement at the trade deadline for two years in a row... is such a shocking thing for me to try and comprehend.

Certainly could be. If you have heard accurately... My next question would be why? This part of his press release would be feeding my curiosity. "pursue new challenges and opportunities, both inside and outside of baseball." He had a good job inside of baseball. He doesn't appear to have another job lined up and outside of baseball is still possible. In the end... it's just my curiosity for details that I'll never get... nor do I deserve to get. He's gone and the team will carry on.

I can't say I didn't see this coming but I'm still a little shocked. My radar was up because his name was absent as Falvey and Baldelli were announced as returning next season. My Thoughts: 1. Thanks for everything Thad... Good Luck to You in your future endeavors. You have been a big part of my team for a long time. Even as I raise criticism's... I was always pulling for you. 2. I wonder if he was told that he won't be coming back and was given his choice of how he wanted to depart. 3. I wonder if he told everyone that he wasn't coming back because he didn't feel he could do his job under tight perimeters or could it be the ole' creative differences that caused groups like the Police to blow apart. I don't know so De Do Do Do De Da Da Da is all I can say about that. 4. Jobs in every industry... People come and go and the business carries on. They won't walk into the winter meetings without a GM. Just have to wait and see who that will be. 5. Whoever the new guy is... PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE don't waste your precious roster space on specialists or innings eater types.

To my understanding. The Owners would sign up quickly for a cap. The Players are strongly against it. The players would quickly sign up for a floor. The Owners are strongly against it. And therefore... We have what we have. Year after Year after Year after Year.

If it's my decision... He's on the roster. If he stays healthy... He will get lots of playing time due to injuries from others and will once again be near the top of the list in regards to PA's and games played.

Everybody is a question mark. Jose Miranda is no different in that regard. I believe he is out of options so 2025 is sink or swim time for Jose. I'll bet on him. Give him a roster spot because we don't have stronger alternatives. 2024 OPS+ 112 Career OPS+ 105 I have no concerns about his defense and I strongly believe that the Twins will not sign a player with significantly higher 2024 OPS... Having Miranda around on the roster is still a good idea. When he starts chasing... he falls apart. I know he can avoid chasing because I've seen him go through stretches of not chasing and he looks great when he doesn't.