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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    It's baseball. It's non-linear. What we as fans perceive as fat margins are actually razor thin. Hot and Cold Streaks stop and start on a dime without warning. Today is a new day... Everything that happened prior to today is history and has no bearing on tomorrow. It's why Baseball is the most beautiful sport and why I love it so.
  2. Riverbrian
    I promise I won't go back into history any further. But lets go back to last year. The Rangers were the 5th seed with a 90-72 Record. The Blue Jays were the 6th seed with an 89-73 Record. The Astros also won 90 games, The Blue Jays won 89 games and the Twins won 87. Two Teams were above that pile. The Orioles won 101 games and the Rays won 99 games. The Orioles won 11 more games over 162. Which is one more win every 14.7 games. The Rangers lost 4 out of their last 6 regular season games as the backed into the playoffs. They swept the 99 win team Rays in 2 and then swept the 101 win Orioles in 3. Followed by a 7 game series victory over the Playoff Seasoned Astros. The Rangers then won the World Series by beating the National League 6th seed Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona finished with an 84-78 record. The D-Backs lost their last 4 games of the season to back in past the Cubs. Much like the American League. There were two teams with lofty win totals. The Braves won 104... who many proclaimed to be the greatest team ever and the Dodgers with 101 wins. The Braves won 20 more games than the D-Backs which over the course of 162 game season equates to one more win every 8.1 games. Arizona swept the 92 Win Brewers in two and swept the 101 win Dodgers in three before going toe to toe for 7 games against the 90 win Phillies. Fast forward to September 19, 2024. The Yankees have the best record in the American League with a 89-63 record. The Twins are currently hanging on to the 6th seed with a record of 80-72. 9 games separate the Yankees and Twins over 152 games with 10 to go. Which is 1 more win every 16.8 games. I will not go to 2022 or beyond to show this all over again.... But I do type all of this to say that I don't except your definition of mediocre. 😎
  3. Riverbrian
    I have been consistently vocal about some criticisms that I have. However... I don't believe that my criticisms should define the total of anyone or any system. There has to be more to the job than not letting lefties face lefties. No matter how right I think I am... and I do think I'm right. Yet, Here they are in playoff contention. I have been critical of the off-season. I don't think they had a good off season... I don't think they had a good trade deadline. Yet here they are... giving me a September with games that matter. I think we often lose sight of the fact that it's really hard to control your destiny when the other team is trying stop you, while bloops can become hits and rockets can be outs. Did we pitch bad or did they hit well? Who knows but one thing is for sure... if you are mechanic... I'm sure you've done a perfect job every time and never left a lug nut on the floor as the car drives away... but I am reasonably certain that you don't have other mechanics trying to knock the wrench out of your hand as you try to do your job. On every forum for every sports team around the country. There is a large contingent of posters who want the coach fired and many them want them fired for conflicting reasons. One wants Rocco fired because he pulled a pitcher.. the other wants him fired because he left the pitcher in too long. One wants Rocco fired because the team is collapsing down the stretch, another wants the front office fired because they didn't provide good enough players, one wants the owners to choke on their gluttony because they didn't provide enough money to get good players. They all want the same thing... heads on a pike. Yet... here they are playing meaningful games in September.
  4. Riverbrian
    Go get em. Put a helmet on. This room will throw stuff. 😉
  5. Riverbrian
    First post home run!!!
  6. Riverbrian
    I noticed that you got three thumbs down for this. It's a little strong but I wanted to give you a thumbs up for better balance and I appreciate the "this thing ain't over" attitude. Anybody who doesn't want the team in the playoffs isn't worth my time. Today is a new day. Everything to this point happened yesterday.
  7. Riverbrian
    Levi has been blaming Rocco for everything... things like toast landing on the peanut and jelly side when it hits the floor after dropped. He's blaming Rocco when they win. I believe he is making a statement that the forums of this website have been trampled by posters who think Rocco is to blame for nearly everything.
  8. Riverbrian
    I would be hesitant to move Jose Ramirez and Bobby Witt at this point myself. Even I... wouldn't suggest a completely willy nilly approach to getting your best players on the field. However. In 2022 when Bobby Witt washed up on the shores. He played 3B for 50 games and then moved to SS. Why? Jose Ramirez was much more interesting. He became the primary 3B in 2018. From 2013 to 2018 he played 3B, SS, 2B and LF. 119 starts at 2B, 100 starts at SS and 49 in LF. Why? Cleveland even made World Series in 2016 and the playoffs in 2017 and 2018 so the player movement didn't damage them too bad. Why did they move Ramirez around? Kyle Tucker... He's primarily RF but he still has some boogers in his nose. 65 Games started in LF and CF. Plus 13 Innings at 1B. Bobby Witt played 3B because that was the open door to the majors. Jose Ramirez moved around under Terry Francona because moving him allowed him to put his best team on the field. It seemed to work out ok.
  9. Riverbrian
    The Twins and everybody else drafts SS's because they are the best player at Rice University and the coaching staff at Rice would like to have their best player play SS. They get to the major league level and then they get moved once they find that the guy they drafted out of Tulane is a better SS but this Rice is guy still pretty good.
  10. Riverbrian
    They all look for that. As they listen to Louie Armstrong sing "What a Wonderful World".
  11. Riverbrian
    Who is our strong starting 8? We thought Julien was part of that group. It wasn't. Lewis got hurt on his 2nd AB. Wallner got sent down. Kepler has been so-so. Castro is leading our team in AB's. We get nailed by injuries every single year just like every team does. One Castro floating around isn't going to be able to keep a finger in the dyke. You need a strong 10 through 13 because they will be needed and if you have a strong 10 through 13... How do you know they are a strong 10 through 13? What do you do when player 13 is playing better than player number 9. How would you know that player 13 is playing better than number 9. Come playoffs... The teams will be pretty much locked in. Even the Twins were as locked in as they could be last year in the playoffs. Buxton was out. Lewis could only DH. So Polanco had to play 3B at the last minute because Lewis couldn't go. Yes they platooned but they had to platoon because you don't keep Julien away from lefties during the season just to turn them loose in the playoffs. Again... I don't like our severe platooning but the Twins were pretty locked in during the playoffs. Getting through 162 games is a whole different animal. Those 162 games should help you determine who you lock in come playoff time. Prepare you for as many possibilities come playoff time.
  12. Riverbrian
    After you name a starting 9. There are only 4 extra players. 3 if you take out the catcher. What are your expectations for those 3 extra players. Can they move around?
  13. Riverbrian
    I am anti-platoon model... To this degree. On that we agree. However... All 30 teams move players around like chess pieces. Any time an injury occurs it's Kings Knight to C3.
  14. Riverbrian
    Ok But with the current Twins platoon model. How is that going to work? You say Castro is not an every day player. I won't argue that. I also agree that Castro leading the team in AB's is not what you want. But making him a part time player and keeping him static in one position. How does that work with the platoon system that the Twins deploy. If he's not every day... he platoons because other players have to platoon and you need dance partners. If Castro was to platoon... his stats say that he would be best facing right handers. So now your platoon left handed players are: Larnach, Wallner and Castro. Who platoons with them? Two would have to be OF. Because you have Castro in LF, so Wallner in RF and Larnach at DH. We have Martin and insert cheap free agent here. Miranda platoons with Larnach? Which again doesn't make sense if you look at Miranda's current splits. If you bring Santana back. He doesn't platoon with Larnach, Wallner and Castro. He's now the everyday 1B along with Lee 2B, Lewis 3B, Correa SS and Buxton CF. On the just throwing a body at a position... I disagree with you 1 million percent. Take the lineup above. What do you do when everyday Royce Lewis gets hurt at 3B and he's out for two months. Are you just going to call up Diego Castillo no matter what he is hitting to play 3B EVERYDAY because he's the St. Paul 3B? You pretty much have to call up Diego Castrillo no matter what he's hitting based on your limitations... if you refuse to allow Castro to do extended work at another position besides LF and you only want a 3B playing 3B you have no other choice. Meanwhile... Emmanuel Rodriquez has an OPS of 1,000 could be the first call up slide into LF when Lewis gets hurt while Castro slides to 3B. Moving players around is necessary to put your best lineup on the field. All 30 teams move players around in order to put their best lineup on the field.
  15. Riverbrian
    It's been on my mind since the young lefties showed up last year and the pinch hitting started immediately afterwards. The only thing that makes sense in my mind is that the Twins front office is playing the long game in regards to sample size. 30 scattered pinch hits is a small sample size... almost meaningless. So is 22 scattered AB's vs left handed pitchers by Larnach... almost meaningless. By playing the long game... it's like they are saying. Margot is supposed to be the better option here so we are going to keep doing it until the numbers come around and show it. The problem with Margot is... the buzzer on the long game has gone off. We spent an entire year waiting for it and it didn't happen. He will go down as a minus in the pinch hit department. One last point... Every major league team has an analytics department. Every team has spreadsheets of information gathered from past results in an attempt to improve the odds of positive future results. Basically every team is looking at the same stuff. The differences between each organization is what data points are the most important. How do they weight each piece of data. The Twins obviously place more importance on the left/right splits with a heavy emphasis on keeping the left handed hitter away from left handed pitching. The left/right split seems to trump all other pieces of data because they are annoyingly consistent in its implementation.
  16. Riverbrian
    I absolutely love this post. Fair... Balanced, Sensible and Well Explained.
  17. Riverbrian
    I've thought about this. But... I gotta say. I really really really hate the idea of Miranda on the short side from a development standpoint. And I hate the idea a little bit more when you look at Miranda's current splits in 2024. Santana's splits actually fit Julien or Kirilloff at 1B. Of course... We should know how that plays out. Santana will face more right handers and lead the team in AB's again. Anyway you slice it... The construction of next years roster will be dependent upon finding another Margot, Farmer and Santana. 13 roster spots 2 Catchers 3 Left Handed Hitters 3 Right Handed hitters to keep the left handed hitters out of the box against lefties. 5 players who play as many days as they can against both hands. These are the limitations set forth by the current model. 2 Catchers Jeffers and Vazquez. 3 Left Handed hitters Wallner, Larnach, Julien (Possibly Kirilloff instead of Julien) 3 right handed hitters who keep the left handers away from left handers Santana ??? (Miranda, Martin, Farmer type free agent) ??? (Miranda, Martin, Farmer type free agent) The 5 who play as often as they can. Correa Buxton Lewis Lee Castro? Then keep in mind that 3 of the 5 who play as often as they can... Correa, Buxton and Lewis have been unavailable for abnormally long stretches and there is no reason to think that is going to go away in 2025 or 2026. You can even start worrying about Lee's time on the IL as well because he has spent some time on the IL. 4 out of 5 big guys with health issues will cause you to look at the other 6 in platoon roles to fill in and no longer in platoon roles. All I can see is... Santana coming back and leading the team AB's in 2025.
  18. Riverbrian
    I was OK signing him in the off-season. That was before I knew how the off-season would play out. After the off-season was done, the belt was tightened. I looked at the lineup construction. I questioned his being brought back in. We had committed way too much money to the short side. As the season progressed and his performance was about as bad as it can get for an uncomfortable length of time. I would have released him in July just so anybody else could take a shot at doing something productive with that roster spot. He is still here and now he is hitting the ball as well as anybody on the team. Therefore right now... he needs to be in the lineup. I don't believe that he will stay hot... he will cool down. Take advantage of his seeing the ball well while you can. We sure could use someone hitting the ball well right now.
  19. Riverbrian
    It's also possible that you don't understand Levi's bit.
  20. Riverbrian
    Any considerations for next years roster will have to be run through the platoon filter first. I'm not joking. If Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff and Julien are on the roster next year. They will require at least 3 players on the roster to platoon with them. There is no indication that the Twins will back off this strategy. You have to account for how they treat left handed hitters when building a roster for 2025. Who is going to hit from the other side of the plate for the left handers. Santana fits that role. Margot and Farmer will also have to be replaced by the 2025 version of Margot and Farmer. Should they platoon to the degree that they platoon.. no they shouldn't and therefore they shouldn't need to sign Santana. But they do... So therefore... Santana should be signed. Because he would fit that role.
  21. Riverbrian
    Good post. Everything has a cost. Prospects are currency. If the prospect price is driven up. You are still spending currency. If the Tigers can sell vets and acquire additional prospects at a driven up price and have the best record in baseball after the doing that? What does that say?
  22. Riverbrian
    And on that I agree. I like to say "Options are powerful thing". So I said it.
  23. Riverbrian
    I appreciate that but that isn't what I'm really saying. I was basically saying that trying to attribute our current problems with youth being stretched beyond what they have been asked to do previously may or may not be the reason. The Tigers this year are doing it with their youth being stretched beyond what they've been asked to do previously. Last year... I believe it was our youth that got us to the playoffs. Our vets certainly were not getting the job done. In our current funk... Vets and Youth combined have to look in the mirror. Lewis, Castro, Kepler, Miranda, Vazquez have fallen hard. The rotation... yeah that's almost all youth but that's what we have to work with. Youth is pitching just fine in Detroit. I think you can safely keep advocating for more youth playing time. Ultimately that youth, will have to carry some water because we are not going to buy water carriers in the free agent market. I remain not afraid of youth. I remain afraid of vets on expiring contracts that struggle. Cull from the bottom until the bottom is raised. Getting painted into a corner in September is just bad planning. Injuries are no excuse. Baseball is such an interesting game... every team has a different story and that's what I love about it.
  24. Riverbrian
    I don't know... don't they always have to consider options if it's a player with a 100 plus heater. Pagan had stuff with poor results. Alcala has stuff and his results have been poor a few times. Alcala doesn't pass through waivers. White Sox grab him.
  25. Riverbrian
    Options are a powerful thing. Alcala can be sent down so he is. Pagan can have the same results with no options and stay for the year. In this particular case and context Stuff wise... I'd keep him up and utilize him a lot. Results wise... Umm... Jeez... I don't know. We don't have a lot of room for crooked numbers being hung.
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