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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    All teams platoon. Varied levels team by team philosophy but all teams do at least some platooning. I've researched it quite a bit looking at all 30 teams and what I have concluded without a doubt. No team out of all 30... kills their left handed hitters like the Twins do. Nobody. I'm suggesting that Cleveland is playing the split correctly and the Twins are playing it wrong by garbage shopping to play the percentage point gain on individuals. I don't care what the team stats say. Cleveland could send up 9 players into the left handed batters box against the 75% of right handers in the game and that is playing the split correctly. Minnesota could send up 9 players into the batters box against the 25% of left handers in the game and that is playing it wrong. The Twins are just getting lost in individual matchups and losing the big picture. Advantage Cleveland!!! I'm suggesting... I'm begging... I'm hoping that Mr. Zoll reads this... or Falvey or Baldelli or anyone with influence. Instead of looking for a right handed hitter to replace Margot just to continue the killing of your young left handed prospects. Go look for a left handed hitter instead and bring the balance closer to attacking the 75% instead of the 25%. That 75 to 25% ratio is going to out distance the percentage point drop if Wallner has to face a left hander. Go get a left handed hitter... Don't care what position. Actually just get the best hitter you can find. But if you have to choose between right and left. Choose Left... And maybe just maybe if you end up with too many lefties in your lineup... Wallner can get that OPS against left handers up to .700 with exposure. Maybe even... Wallner takes it further and becomes the next Yordan as you mention. He certainly won't under the current system because he isn't allowed to. When it is reported that you are looking for a right handed hitting OF. We know what you are looking for. Stop looking for that. You are just scaring me and I'm trying to be supportive. And please... quit your doggone pinch hitting in the 5th. Save your bullets for the 8th or 9th when the sands of the hour glass are waning.
  2. Riverbrian
    They had more lefties than they could sit. Kwan, Naylor and Gimenez were probably considered the top 3 so they got more work in against lefties. For example: Just picking a game at random last year against lefties. Sunday, June 23 against Kikuchi and the Blue Jays. Cleveland won the game 6-5 Cleveland started: Kwan LF (L) Freeman CF (R) Ramirez DH (S) Naylor 1B (L) Fry C (R) Schneeman 2B (L) Rodriguez RF (R) Rocchio SS (S) Martinez 3B (S) Naylor (L) Brennan (L) Gimenez (L) Arias (R) were on the bench. That's 3 left, 3 switch, 2 Right and 3 left handers on the bench with 1 right hander. Kikuchi lasted 2 innings. Followed by Pop (R) 1.1 Innings Little (L) .2 Thee Trevor Richards (R) 2 innings Cabrera (L) 1 Green (R) 1 Despite Cleveland knocking out Kikuchi early and Toronto going right, left, Right, left to finish the game. Bo Naylor was the only pinch hit that Vogt utilized in what was a tight game all the way. It wasn't a match up pinch hit. David Fry was pulled after catching two innings due to an elbow injury while Kikuchi was still on the mound. When Bo Naylor entered the game in the 5 spot for Fry in the 3rd inning. Cleveland was L L L in the 4 5 and 6 spots with Kikuchi still in the game. Schneider would try to exploit that. In the 3rd with the Jays up 3 - 1. The lefty wall of 4,5 and 6 came up against Kikuchi. J. Naylor Doubled, B. Naylor Walked, Schneemann singled knocking Kikuchi from the game. Replaced by Pop. The lefty wall would come again in the 4th. Cleveland ahead 5-3. Schneider brings in lefty Brendan Little to face the wall with one out starting with switch Ramirez. Left Josh Naylor hits a home run off of him 409 feet to right center. The next time the lefty wall came around. Schneider brought in lefty Genesis Cabrera. Cabrera hung a zero but he did give up a double to Bo Naylor. This is one game... I'm not saying this is the way it always is in 162 games. I'm not saying that Vogt is different than Baldelli. I'm not saying that Vogt is better than Rocco. But... I am saying that having 6 left handed hitters on their roster didn't hurt them during the course of the season that they won the division. And it didn't hurt them against a total of 3 left handers in this specific game. (honestly picked at random). I am saying that instead of looking for a RIGHT HANDED OUTFIELDER... How about adding to your left handed hitting pile instead, Since we only have 3 of them and they are simply not allowed to face Kikuchi. You are doing good research. I appreciate it. You are on the RIGHT path looking LEFT like you are. You are one of the best.
  3. Riverbrian
    In the case of the Twins... All Left Handers would unfortunately be "most" accurate. We either can't develop left handed hitters like other teams can or we overweight the data point.
  4. Riverbrian
    Will probably need to swing a trade. He probably won't reach waivers. If he reaches waivers... he probably won't reach the Twins. Dodgers will want young prospects not on the 40 man. The Twins are hopefully on the phone.
  5. Riverbrian
    Could be. I can't say for sure. Whatever the reason... they did it for a year and then just stopped doing it. That's the only thing that I truly know. The reasoning is contained inside the walls of 1 Twins Way. They may have stopped because they felt the talent had improved enough to stop as you suggest. They added Lopez to the rotation and they didn't bring back the innings eaters of Bundy and Archer. That is a big talent adjustment in itself so yeah... maybe. However... Sonny Gray? He went from 4.98 Innings per start to 5.75 innings per start from 2022 to 2023. Sonny Gray for some reason was caught in that 2022 vortex of whatever was happening. A 3.08 ERA and 4.98 innings per start. The outsider view point which is all I have to work with. There was a rather noticeable consistency in 2022. Two times through the order. The Starter was gone... regardless of his performance. Pulled after facing #9 in the order. The starter wasn't allowed to face that lead off hitter a third time. It seemed almost robotic... or should I say... Systemic. They went from 408 PA's third time facing a hitter in 2022 to 804 in 2023. That number was 708 PA's in 2024. In 2024... a total of 74 starts were made by starting pitchers with ERA's higher than 4.09. (I choose 4.09 because Lopez came in at 4.08). It would be 106 starts if I used 4.00 as a nice even number line. We had young arms like SWR, Festa, Zebby and Varland tugging at those numbers. For Comparison. In 2022... The year of two times through the order restriction. 69 starts were made by Starters with an ERA over 4.09. 74 starts over 4.00 for the nice even number line. Could it be argued that the two times through the order philosophy was the reason that the Twins had 93 starts made by starters under 4.09. Could be... But they stopped doing it with an improved rotation in 2023 and kept not doing it with a rotation being backfilled by youth named SWR, Festa, Zebby and Louie Lou-Eye. Seems systemic to me... just like every single left handed hitter we have isn't good enough also seems systemic.
  6. Riverbrian
    I agree with you... It just might be that simple. They don't think Wallner, Larnach, Julien and Kirilloff are good enough. Actions speak louder than words. Their actions tell everyone that they don't think they are good enough. If they thought Wallner was good enough... Wallner would be one of the 5 players who have to face both hands. He would join Correa, Buxton, Lewis and Castro in that we think they are good enough group of 5. I've typed a thousand words in opposition but If they don't believe they are good enough and they clearly don't. I can simplify my response to that. Brent Rooker can't happen then. They can't miss on Rooker. They can't stick and stay with Margot as they keep sending him to the plate to keep the not good enough Larnach away and watch him wrap up his 0 for 30 pinch hitting into September. Julien can't make the opening day roster while Miranda doesn't. In other words: They better be right because the cost is fatal. This feeling of not good enough that they have, Is taking up half the available major league inventory and it is spilling over onto everything because half of that inventory is the bucket they have to reach into when the 5 players they think ARE good enough get hurt. The simple concept of rostering a Margot who isn't good enough because Wallner isn't good enough is taking up two roster spots with not good enough. Blame them for not developing beyond AAAA? I don't want to blame them at all. The job is hard... I'm not asking for anyone's head... But yeah I will. They have a choice. They can either develop hitters or they can sign them as free agents. I don't see them signing them in free agency so that kinda makes the development thing a little extra important. We can't commit half the inventory to not good enough. There has to be a path to a better cut of meat... We can't just Ham Hock our way through. So... The best they could do was develop a Wallner who can't do it himself, develop a Larnach who requires another player to handcuff to them. The best they could do is a team that PLATOONS more than any other team. Wait... that's not true... Brent Rooker was the best player they developed. And they think Wallner isn't good enough.
  7. Riverbrian
    0-10 That would have made them 12-14 vs right handed starters during that same time period. 12-14 isn't great but it's better than 0-10 when the chips are down. I know there is more game to play after starters leave the game so the whole story isn't being told... but 0-10 is still a story. In other words... it didn't work at the end of the year.
  8. Riverbrian
    Does anyone know the Twins record in 2024 when a left handed starter starts and their record when a right handed pitcher starts? I know there is a whole lot of game after the opening pitch so those numbers won't mean everything but they might at least suggest that it is or isn't working to a slight degree at least. I'm too lazy to look it up and to be honest... I'm not exactly sure what website would provide this information.
  9. Riverbrian
    Another thought for everyone's consideration. The Twins were able to throw a lineup together of 9 players in the right handed batters box last year against left handed pitching multiple times last year. That's impressive but the problem is that the Twins were not able to come anywhere close to that against right handed pitching. They could bat 5 at most out of the left handed batters box against right handed pitching. By chasing the platoon split against left handed pitching as hard as you did... You played it correctly and very very wrong at the same time. You hyper focused on the left hander when you should have focused on the right handers that make up 75% of the pitching population. If you want to play the platoon split. The 75% throwing right handed trumps the percentage points you gain from the 3 players that keep away from lefties. Cleveland last year with 6 left handed hitters and 4 switch hitters had the ability to place 9 batters in the left handed box against right handed pitching. They played the 75%. We played the 25%. Dear, Mr. Zoll, When you consider that we had a full lineup of hitters in the right handed batters box against the left hander last year. And when you consider that Falvey has announced publicly that you are looking for a right handed outfielder this year. YOU SCARE THE CRAP OUT OF ME. Sincerly, Riverbrian
  10. Riverbrian
    Kepler Career: 3170 PA's against right handers 1081 PA's against left handers. Career - 25 Percent of his AB's were against Lefties. In 2024: 317 PA's against right handers 82 PA's against left handers 2024 - 20 Percent of his AB's were against lefties. When Kepler was a young player still forming into whatever he was going to become. Kepler had 568 PA's as a 24 year old. 611 PA's as a 25 year old, 596 PA's has a 26 year old. Hard to get that many AB's if you are being platooned as strictly as Wallner and Larnach are being platooned. He wasn't. Kepler was granted the right to develop against the left handed pitcher at age 24, 25 and 26. Wallner and Larnach are not being granted the same development opportunity. Rocco did not start this extreme platoon strategy until Julien and Wallner arrived in 2023. That's when it reached a whole new level to the point that I'm complaining about. No team in MLB platoons as much as the Twins do. Kepler managed to avoid it until lefties got hurt or sent down which dropped the number of lefties on the roster forcing Kepler to be one. This year Julien and Wallner were sent down, Kirilloff was injured. During those times when a combination of those players were off the roster. Kepler got demoted to sitting so Margot could play against left handers. 2024... First game of the season. Against the Royals - left hander Cole Ragans. Kepler is starting in RF and batting 6th. Who wasn't in the game opening day against Ragans. Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff and 3 is the max amount to keep glued to the bench. They were one lefty hitter over stocked so Kepler faced the left hander. Margot at DH, Farmer at 2B and Santana at 1B started instead of Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff.
  11. Riverbrian
    In my opinion. Kepler typically wasn’t platooned throughout his career but he was pulled into a platoon spot last year when we developed lefty issue with Wallner and Julien. That’s the evil of this thing. If you have 3 left handed hitters and two short side right handers. One of the lefties avoids the platoon. Or 4 lefties and 3 short side right handers. Again… one of the lefties avoids the platoon. So when something happens to one of the left handed hitters. Injured or sent down. That extra left handed hitter that was avoiding the platoon… which was Kepler. He gets sucked down into the platoon role because you got these shortsiders on the roster that also need the cover and someone has to do it. This is what happened to Kepler last year. Wallner and Julien were sent down. Margot and Farmer did not. This is how this thing feeds on itself and becomes inescapable. And just a word of warning to those who believe that Erod or Jenkins can avoid this vortex. They can’t. Even if the Twins decide to not platoon Erod. He is stlll dependent on having enough platooning left handed hitters to keep him platoon free at all times during the season. He may start the year platoon free but when one of the other left handers go down. He will be sucked into it.
  12. Riverbrian
    Hopefully you were able to mention to him that I am personally counting on him this year. 😉😎😄 You can also mention that I also believe him in. I think I'm counting on the right guy. Now we just got to get management out of his way.
  13. Riverbrian
    Beautiful Post. The complication of Jeffers is well stated. They are chasing a moving target. I'll add a similar complication to your well done post. Miranda... the right handed hitting Miranda with much much better splits against right handed pitching last year. Extreme split differences. Is he better against right handed pitching or was it the small sample results of what he did against left handed pitching? I don't know but there were stretches last year sometimes lengthy stretches when Miranda would be in the lineup against left handers consistently and sat against right handers totally ignoring what was actually happening on the field. Will Miranda's splits in 2025 look like they did in 2024? I don't know but the sample size against left handers is certainly small enough that they could look completely different. How do you plan for that? Do you play Miranda against every body in 2025? Do you play Miranda in a short side role in 2025? Do you play Miranda against right handers only... like he is Trevor Larnach? Whatever you do... he gets set in cement for the year. If you treat Miranda like he is Larnach. His numbers suggest that you should. Now you need Farmer to platoon with Miranda. One year results... his future planned. As long as Farmer is on the roster... He needs that guy who can face right handers. You said it perfectly when you said this: "The answer to roster construction is simply roster the better hitters".
  14. Riverbrian
    I don't care if they trade for Kasper. I don't care if the budget restricts what we can do. I'm not calling for Rocco's head... I'm not calling for Falvey's head. I'm not asking for new ownership. I have one wish... I want them to stop doing this. Just like they stopped yanking starting pitching after two times through the order. I will say uncle eventually. I will judge this front office on development because money has always been a hurdle and I expect money to continue to be a hurdle. The team won't survive in the future without development. If the best they can do on the development side is develop a Wallner or Larnach or Julien that demands a Margot be attached to them. They will have failed at development if that is the best they can do. If they fail at development... then I'll demand that they increase payroll to sign players that other teams have fully developed because we are incapable of developing our own. If they continue to work with budget limitations that make it impossible to bring players in that other teams have fully developed I'll go back to asking that they fully develop players. At that point... I'll be aware of being bounced around like a tennis ball and I will eventually ask for new front office leadership that is more committed to development.
  15. Riverbrian
    Unfortunate Injuries and players playing well below what they were projected to perform is a constant thing and it doesn't go away. Very few teams have been able to pick 9 players and just ride with them for all 162 games to the playoffs. Each roster spot is gold. A player playing terribly doesn't kill you. It's the constant playing of the player playing terribly that kills you. This is an extremely important TRUTH. Do you want to get away from that player playing terribly? You can't get away from that player playing terribly because your options are the guy that you won't let hit left handers or the guy who can't hit right handers and that guy is only on the roster because you won't let the guy hit left handers. It's a death cycle with no escape or end.
  16. Riverbrian
    Julien pinch hit for before he even swung a bat because the Giants started with an opener. That's a manager who came from the Rays... the team that invented the opener... getting beat by the opener concept. If you want to know when I became as passionate about this subject. That was the moment. Yanking out Larnach in 5th inning with plenty of game to play... with so many different scenerios can still happen before the clock runs out... just so you have no choice but to bat Margot against the right handed closer in the 9th with the clock about to run out and the scenerio is basically do or die. CAN'T be Justified. Maybe if the bases are loaded in the 5th... Maybe you could justify it. But, the majority of these pinch hits are occurring regardless of the game situation... they are occurring with one out and nobody on base in the 5th inning with a 5 run lead. They are occurring simply because a left hander is being put in the game... the game situation doesn't matter. It's just done and done consistently.
  17. Riverbrian
    YES... A thousand times YES. Buxton, Lewis and Correa have spent enough time on the injured list that any idea that you can get by with just 9 decent ball players is a bad idea. These roster spots are GOLD. Camargo just watching Vazquez OPS .575 is just a waste of a roster spot. We committed 30 million dollars and bunch of AB"s to players who were below of average last year. Kepler, Margot, Farmer and Vazquez add up to 30 million dollars. You can't just sit back and say Oh Well... It happens. You need players to compete for playing time. Larnach's locked in utilization doesn't allow for competition for playing time... it requires Larnach to be locked into a role and it requires Margot on the opposite side. So sub par plays just gets to keep doing what it was doing because Larnach can NEVER be the replacement and Margot is MARGOT.
  18. Riverbrian
    This is a pretty big con. We should sit back and think about Wallner and Larnach. Some may not care about Julien but let's throw him in that group and let's ponder the future of all 3. Here's the question I have for everyone. What does everyone see Wallner and Larnach doing with the Twins in 2027? Will they still be platooning? If the answer is no... they won't be platooning in 2027... Then the next question would be... What the hell are we doing with them now and how does it help for the moment they won't be. If the answer is yes.... they will still be platooning in 2027? That will mean that 2025, 2026 and 2027 all 3 of them will require a right handed hitter attached to them for all 3 of those years. They have to sign a Margot type for one year and do it again just to fill that role. If they don't sign Margot... then the role will have to be filled from the farm. So now... You got Keaschall from the right side of the plate only facing left handers and this becomes his development. Some young guy important to our future getting bench stains on his butt until he is forced to face the righties due to injury. So in 2027... The top prospects coming up to make us competitive in 2027 are a bunch of parts that have been stripped mined and this is huge... Why? Well because we all know that the team can't fill the roster spots in 2027 with Pete Alonso or Anthony Santander. Pete isn't coming. We have to develop Pete and we can't do that because we have limited to them to impossible to EVER become Pete. And another point that matters to me... but may not matter to some because it is mainly important to the player only. Larnach becomes a free agent after 2027. He could OPS 1,000 vs Right handed pitching in 207 and Trevor will not be able to fully cash out if he is not allowed to face lefties for the entire time he was under our control. Teams will be interested but the best he will be able to do is 2 years like Joc Pederson and Joc had to sign a series of 1 year deals before he got that 2 year deal. If I'm Erod or Walter Jenkins. I'd want out of Minnesota NOW!!!!
  19. Riverbrian
    Good Post String. Just for clarity. It isn't so much advocating but saying that you have to have to five players on the roster who must face both hands because the system demands it. The system demands it because you need 6 roster spots to platoon just to commit to this system. Add in two catchers and you are left with 5 that have to face both hands. Those 6 roster spots committed also guarantees that you are LOCKED into this system because you can't escape it. If Margot is on the roster so you have someone to face lefties instead of Larnach. When Margot is hurt you have to call up a right handed hitter because Larnach still needs that protection. Erod getting the call when Margot gets hurt. Well... that can't happen because you are locked in. You must call up a right handed bat to replace Margot or else Larnach runs free. OK... Let's say you call up Erod anyway... So you have a 4th left hander. And let's say that you allow Erod to face left handers because someone has to. Then Larnach gets hurt. You are still locked into this system so Erod no matter how he is performing against left handers has to drop into the Larnach role because you have Margot on the roster that shouldn't face right handers. The system to this degree is lunacy and will kill the franchise in the future.
  20. Riverbrian
    I don't recall citing Betteridge's law of headlines. However... I love those TV or Radio ads that start with a question. Are you looking for a fish? Come to Bob's Goldfish Store. I'll say... Nope... Not looking for a fish and I'm done. It's probably better to sell the reason that you need a fish instead of settling for the tiny amount of the already converted fish people. Anyway... Hooked me with this article. Yes I need a non-platooning fish.
  21. Riverbrian
    It does the exact opposite. Other than Willi Castro who is a switch hitter and therefore the player who led the team in AB's because of versatility in the field and his non-platooning. There is such thing as "thriving" for the players you list as benefactors of the platoon system. They may get roster spots as a result but no thriving. Let's look at the names you list Austin Martin just facing left handed hitting does nothing for Austin Martin. It gives him a roster spot. Eventually, someone gets hurt and now Martin has to face right handers. If Martin could hit right handers, there would be no reason to limit him to left handed hitting. The Platoon only hurts Martin and makes him a development failure. Michael Helman: It gives him a roster spot and keeps the team from giving someone better that roster spot. Of course... the giving someone better the roster spot comment assumes that Helman isn't that good to begin with. Is he or isn't he... We won't know. He's just there because you failed to develop Wallner or Larnach beyond the point that they require someone like Helman to be attached to them. This year and every year after that. DaShawn Keirsay: This guy is going to be punished beyond recognition. There is no thriving for him... just a big huge unscalable wall. You can only protect 3 left handed hitters. If you have Wallner and Larnach occupying two of the three spots how do you find a spot for Keirsay? He can only wait for an injury to either Wallner or Larnach for a call up. Keirsay isn't eligible to be called up if Buxton gets hurt because he would bring the number of left handers on the roster beyond what they can protect. This is important to understand so I'll repeat it and bold it. If Buxton gets hurt... Keirsay isn't eligible to be called up because he would bring the number of left handed hitters on the roster beyond what they can protect. If Keirsay gets a roster spot with Wallner and Larnach also hanging around. One of them will now have to... all of a sudden... move into a full time role which means... all of a sudden... they have to face left handers because you have too many on the roster and you can't protect them all. The extreme platooning that we do... limits the number of left handers that we can roster to 3. If you go to 4 left handers... one of them must face left handed hitting. The platooning that we do... KILLS Keirsay. OK... That's Great... Keirsay added to the Roster. Wallner can face left handers now... I've been asking for this. WALLNER won't be prepared for this. We have spent two years hiding him from this. Wallner has been developed to guarantee that he needs a handcuff at all times. But... Hey... now we need him. And this is going to happen in September with the playoffs on the line. Go face Framber now Matt. I know we didn't trust you to face him for 4 years but we need you now.
  22. Riverbrian
    I'm ok with the managing of player workloads. Because of the frequent injuries that occur and occur every single year. I'm all for the utilization of all 13 players on the 26 man roster. Not because I think the managing of workloads prevent injuries but because the utilization of all 13 players PREPARES the players that you will need to step up when injuries occur... and the injuries will occur. However, You don't need to set up platoons in order to manage workloads. Just manage workloads. Simple enough. The players you list Correa and Buxton are not part of this platoon world. They are the reason that platooning comes back to bite you. The consistent injury frequency of Correa, Buxton and let's add Lewis to that group guarantees you that Farmer and Margot are going to end up facing more right handed pitching. Platoons don't prepare you for these injuries. Platoons prepare players to platoon. They prepare right handed hitters to face left handed hitters. They prepare left handed hitters to face right handed pitchers. When the injuries come and they will come... you are forced to turn to the right handed hitter to face right handed pitching because the entire roster is carved into these niche deployments. When Buxton goes down? Who takes over. I don't know who that will be but all you have to choose from are those guys you have been keeping away from right handers or the guys you have been keeping from left handers because your entire roster has been carved up to serve the platoon to maximum utilization. The Twins won't have a player who can face both hands ready to go. You have no choice because you have committed every single last drop of your roster to execution of this strategy. 2 Catchers, 5 players who play every day. 3 left handed hitters who you only want to face right handers and 3 right handed bats who you only want to face left handers. Injuries are real bad reason to justify platooning.
  23. Riverbrian
    I am not anti-platoon. I am anti-platoon to the degree that we do it. Really Really Anti-Platoon to the degree that we do it. On paper it makes perfect sense for Kyle Farmer to replace Julien against left handed pitching. A .751 OPS is decent... It's above average. However... what is gained if Kyle Farmer has more AB's vs Right Handed pitching. Any potential gains from the platoon utilization is erased when Farmer faces more right handed pitching.
  24. Riverbrian
    The quote from Falvey suggests rather unequivocally that Rocco is the one responsible for the amount of platooning being done by suggesting that Rocco makes out the lineup card. OK... I'll believe that. Most front offices make similar statements in similar regards concerning the manager and the lineup card. However... it does lead to a another rather important question. Did Rocco trade for Margot enabling Rocco to platoon more than any of the other 29 baseball teams. At the very least did Rocco encourage the front office to trade for Margot? I understand that the daily lineup card is Rocco's decision. However... is it also safe to assume that we have some coordination between the front office and the manager to supply the players necessary for this sort of thing? Chicken or Egg... Did the front office provide players that require Rocco to manage in this fashion or did Rocco's managing require the front office to provide these players.
  25. Riverbrian
    This may shock some of you. However... The answer to the question posed in the title. In my opinion is... YES!
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