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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. I basically agree with this. Taking a look at a new pitcher as a pinch hitter makes sense. However... If I remember right. Wasn't that first pitch a dead center fastball in the low 90's. The type of pitch that someone better looking first pitch fastball would have deposited in the seats? I didn't research it after the fact but I remember watching it and thinking to myself. Damn... that thing was down the middle. How do you pop that up?
  2. You are knowledgeable and I understand that you are not defending Farmer per se but more arguing the process. Full disclosure -- I liked Farmer in the offseason. I was OK with him getting a roster spot. By the time, the off-season concluded... I was questioning the 6 million spent on him but I was OK with Farmer. He was a solid member of the team last year. I don't blame the front office for giving him a roster spot coming out of spring training. Front offices make these types of mistakes all the time. If they got it right all the time we would be in the world series every year facing the other 29 teams who will also be in the world series every year because they all were able to anticipate these types of things. They can't... so they need to make adjustments during the season based on season results. Margot and Farmer will not be with the team next year. They don't need to be something to over come this year.
  3. You quoted Mike who was quoting me so I'll answer. I don't know. I won't pretend to know. What I know is that Margot and Farmer are under performing and Margot/Farmer will find themselves in the lineup because players are going to get hurt, Therefore Margot and Farmer will be asked to do things that they haven't been able to do and it could be October 1. This is what happens when you place players on the 26 man roster... turns out you need them. You can ask for the names of players who will be able to out perform Margot and Farmer... but you are doing that for the purpose of trying to talk people out of those names before they get the chance to become names. This just dips Margot and Farmer in cement and hardens them on the roster with a .632 and .573 OPS respectively. I won't claim that Severino or Keirsay could clear that low bar. I won't even claim that the Twins could have traded for someone at the dead line to clear that low bar. But I'll make these claims: Nick Senzel with the Nationals barely cleared that bar and was DFA'd by the Nationals. for his efforts. Juan Yepez was Non-Tendered by the Cards, signed a minor league contract with the Nats and has soared past that bar. I picked the Nationals as a starting point with the intent of going to the rosters of all 29 teams and listing all of the surprising names of players who are clearing that bar. That's too much work... there are a lot of names of surprising players who clear that bar when given the chance to. These players get the chance to because Nick Senzel was DFA'd and not deemed irreplaceable.
  4. Honest question. I'm not asking in an attempt to argue with you or anyone. I'm asking because I don't know. Does the IL work that way? Can a team just use the IL this way? I've always suspected that the IL could be used this way. I can see how it would be helpful with roster management but then I think about the players union and I can't imagine the players union being on board. If the players union isn't on board... front offices wouldn't be able to do it. Again... just a question.
  5. I'll keep preaching Mike. But... you'll give me a thumbs down eventually, Because what I'm preaching is why you keep Polanco in the off-season. Instead of trading him for lesser players. Yes... I fully admit that I would probably be complaining about Polanco if he was still on the roster hitting like he has been hitting.
  6. Exactly And players get hurt. Therefore the lesser players are in the lineup. Therefore you should take the lesser players more seriously... and move them off the roster so you can roster better players.
  7. This won't be popular and it will also be contrary to what I normally say. Here goes... I may have considered pinch hitting Farmer for Wallner in that situation. Even if it was a right handed pitcher on the mound. The only reason that I would consider it. K's. Contact. Wallner K's a lot and Farmer K's much less. Runner on third with one out. Simple contact can bring that run home. The problem remains in my eyes is that we don't have a better pinch hitting option on the roster for that moment. All roster spots are important.
  8. When I was in high school. I took a girl on a date to the county fair. While on the tilt-o-whirl in motion. I threw up. Like a gentlemen I turned my head to the side... but chose the wrong direction. For those still with the story and those who wish to hear the details. Here was the result of the rest of my date. The tossed cookies stuck to the side of the tilt-o-whirl and then proceeded to slide (while remaining stuck to the side) toward my date. It happened in kind of slow motion. She could see it coming toward her but could not move to escape it. Some of it actually crawled across her and kept going. The horror was evident in her eyes. She let a different type of scream from the normal on a tilt-o-whirl scream. Surprising enough... the date was over at that point. Who knew that girls don't like getting thrown up on. I know that now and try not to do that ever again. She went home to change. There was not a second date.
  9. If you believe the mathematical weighting of WAR. If you quote WAR in your opinions of players. Max may look alright to ya. If you don't believe in the math of WAR. If you think the weighting is skewed by heavy application of zone metrics like I do. Max will appear to be average at best. Below Average actually apart from an insane hot streak post all-star break last year. He's one of us... I cheer for him every time. But... He isn't the player who makes you stop looking for someone better.
  10. I was going to say. He was allowing too many base runners. Put people on base... you are bloop from a run or a blast from a crooked number. In April... He threw 16.2 innings. 27 hits and 9 walks. 2.16 WHIP. In his 4 starts since then. Two in June... Two in August. 20 Innings - 22 hits and 2 walks. WHIP 1.20 The Varland since June I have no concerns with.
  11. It's Martha and the Vandelas in the bullpen. Nowhere to run... Nowhere to hide. Trading for a player that has to be hidden is pointless. He will get 7th and 8th inning opportunities in meaningful games.
  12. You might be right. Or maybe not. There has certainly been an inconsistency with Varland in the rotation. But I have to ask. If Richards can be refined. Couldn't Varland? In my humble opinion... Varland has the better stuff and it isn't that close in my opinion. With me... It's can you hang zeroes and how many can you hang. I'm still hopeful that Varland can hang a zero more than an inning at a time and I'm willing to bet that we will need him to start for us before the year is up. However... I think at this point in the season. He can move between pen and rotation rather seemlessly.
  13. In some cases yes... In some cases no. And the answer to yes or no is going to be subjective and probably differ between You, Me and each individual front office. My opinion and my opinion only... not speaking for how others feel. I think Houston gave up waaaayyyyy to much for a rental. I think the Padres gave up too much for Tanner Scott and Scott was probably near the top of my wish list. However... on a good chunk of deals, I was surprised by what I considered to be a low return. I think the White Sox got completely hosed for Fedde, Kopech and Pham. I think they gave Eloy away. I think the Mariners got Arozarena waaaayyyy too easy. But I don't know what the Rays thought about these two prospects playing A ball for Seattle. And of course... even if the Twins could have beat the Mariners deal for Arozarena. It sure seems like they could have... Would the Twins be willing/Able to pay the 12 million he'll get in ARB money next season. Of course... they could have just utilized Randy as a rental and traded him away in the off-season. Just examples of the complication... but... ultimately... no matter how we got here... we are both standing in the same room disappointed.
  14. It's not an excuse. It's a made up example out of my head to make a point that I have no idea what was happening on the other end of the phone in an office that none of us have access to. I hope you didn't think I brought up Festa claiming that Festa WAS THE ASK!!!
  15. Agreed... We just don't know what was being asked? We don't know how the Marlins felt about what the Padres were offering compared to what the Twins were willing to part with? The trade deadline has to be more complicated than simply walking into a Hy-Vee and grabbing a can of Progresso Soup off the shelf.
  16. I like Festa a lot and I see some good things from Matthews. However... There's not much reason to believe that the rotation of Ober, Lopez, SWR, Festa and Zebby will remain healthy and intact for the rest of the season and into the playoffs and alternatives beyond Paddack and Ryan returning need to be considered. On the other hand... I'm not one of those who believe that just because Varland jumps into the pen that he can't jump back into the rotation with little fuss should the need arise. Necessity is always the mother of invention.
  17. It's hard for me to criticize the process without knowing it. All I can do is be disappointed in the result two years in a row without knowing exactly how it didn't work out for what I wanted. I can type buyers buy all I want and I'll continue to type it because I believe it but I don't know what teams were asking when it comes to any of the trade discussions that the Twins were having with teams. If teams were insistent on Festa for example and not moving off of Festa in discussions. I'm probably going home empty. I'm not trading Festa for a rental no matter how many times I type buyers buy. I simply don't know... I'm not willing to hang anyone for my disappointment without knowing... but it's odd that other teams were able to get deals done in the past two years and the Twins came up empty two years in a row. Will the lack of action cost us this season. Who knows? We could have traded for Jazz Chisholm, Tarik Skubal and Tanner Scott and still miss the playoffs. We could do nothing like we did and go on a 20 game winning streak. I thought we needed offense at the trade deadline last year. In the playoffs last year... offense was probably what brought us down. Does that make me right? It does not because it doesn't mean that a satisfactory offensive addition would have been the difference in the playoffs. The trade deadline is the last outpost to resupply on the Oregon Trail. For that reason, I think it's important to pick up supplies. However, just because you didn't pick up a chamber pot doesn't mean you can't relieve yourself in the woods. And... And... Just because you picked up a chamber pot, doesn't mean it won't fall into the river when the wagon tips over. The only thing that I'm reasonably sure of. It isn't just a matter of waiting for Correa, Buxton and Ryan to get back so we can show that we have the team RIGHT NOW and don't need anyone. Correa, Buxton and Ryan just might come back and be available for our playoff hopes and dreams but I'm willing to bet that someone else or someone else plural will go down (maybe even Correa or Buxton again) and not be available come playoff time and that's why the extra supplies are a good idea. Anyway... I'm disappointed that we didn't pick up a chamber pot but I'm still on the wagon heading west. I hope I know what Poison Ivy looks like.
  18. I've told my kids many times. If you don't understand why something is happening... follow the money. The Answer is usually somewhere in that vicinity. I sure don't understand two years of deadline tepidness so I know where I'd start looking for the answer. The TV money... Yeah... I can see that... but it doesn't explain last year entirely. Correa along with Vazquez and Gallo was a pretty significant uptick that might have explained last year as well.
  19. It's not even about money for me. Just bring someone who can help. Someone who can deepen the squad. We still have to get through August and September with health and I'll bet anyone that we won't. There were players who moved at the deadline that could have helped us that were not necessarily expensive in terms of payroll. Prospect cost of course but not major financial hits. At least not for this year. They were rumored to be in on Kikuchi. A Rental that would have added 4 million to the payroll. So if we believe the rumors... they were able to add 4 million more. We were rumored to be in on Fedde. That's about 3 Million this year and 7 million next year so they were willing to tack on 7 million for next year. We didn't even need to spend that much. Tanner Scott would have been a great addition. A Rental around 2 million. Gregory Soto has been really average for Philadelphia and he has been brutal with the Orioles since the trade deadline but I would have taken a shot on his huge left handed arm. Around 2 Million remaining this season and his final year of arb next year. Chafin was a 2 million dollar rental. On the right side of the bullpen Erceg is making the minimum with 5 years of control. I would have loved to have added Bryan De La Cruz. He's making the minimum with 3 years of control to come. Danny Jansen would have cost a couple of million as a rental. Paredes would have cost a couple million with 3 years of control in the following years. Jazz Chisolm would have been less than a million with 2 more arb years. Arozarena would have cost about 3 million this year with two arb years to come. I don't know what happened during the course of trade exploration phone calls but to come away basically blank for two years in a row is very strange. Something, Someone for some reason is holding them back.
  20. Buyers Buy and Sellers Sell. Doing nothing is standing still. I've heard Thad Lavine actually say in reference to trade deadlines that "doing nothing is standing still" while being interviewed a few years back. I thought he was exactly right when he said it and I think he is still exactly right. Doing Nothing is indeed standing still. Yet... here we are... two deadlines in a row. Trevor Richards is the sum of two deadlines in a row of Twins teams in contention. I don't who is attaching the shackles but the front office has clearly been shackled and chained by something or someone either self imposed or by superiors... something ain't right. The quotes afterwards were about how much they like their team and money had nothing to do with it. OK... let's assume that's true. Did they like their team on August 3, 2023... 3 days after the deadline when they selected the contract of Dallas Kuechel or August 4, 2023... 4 days after the deadline when the pulled Jordan Luplow off the waiver wire. Did they like their team on August 9, 2024... 9 days after the deadline when Joe Ryan and Brooks Lee hit the IL or on August 13th when Byron Buxton flamed that hip leading to a DL stint. Buyers Buy... Sellers Sell. Your team on August 1 can be much different on September 20th let alone August 3.
  21. The Padres as a team are heavy left handed team at the plate. They currently Rank 5th in MLB against Right Handed Pitching. They currently rank tied for 17th against Left Handed Pitching. Splits are real... it can't be denied... however... I contend that teams should focus on the Right Handed pitcher when building a roster and take your lumps against left handed pitching because 75% of pitching is right handed. I have become steadfast and stubborn in my dislike for specialists taking up roster space.
  22. Agreed I'm sure the analysts send Rocco the numbers so he would have a chance to review them. Wade is not a threat and easily pinch hit for. Rocco had to know that was Solano was the next move by Schildt once Okert is brought in. They were not going to pinch hit Arraez and Profar has been stronger against left handers. The only justification for the move is: Slighty better odds against Arraez who is a tough out either way and a big advantage against Cronenworth who was 4th in the order. The Padres are interesting because they have a lot of left handers in the lineup. Arraez, Cronenworth and Merrill do not platoon. Cronenworth and Merrill have poor numbers against left handers. Cronenworth and Merrill are the two guys to target a left hander since Schildt tends to let them hit... However, Schildt protects Cronenworth with back to back tough right handers in Machado and Bogaerts. Merrill follows the righties in the order but if you drop a left hander against Merrill... Solono will pinch hit for Peralta followed by a right handed catcher. It brings me back to a point that I often make when it comes to the bullpen. There is nowhere to run... nowhere to hide. There is no such thing as low leverage in the bullpen. You need relievers front to back who can get hitters out period regardless of what batters box they stand in. You want to roster a left handed specialist with a two plus WHIP against right handers. The Padres are a heavy left handed team... This is the team we signed him to face and it still doesn't work because the move is easily countered. I was sleeping... so the context is something I have to build from the box score so I'm not comfortable commenting but this is what it looks like to me. I would have let Ober face one more hitter (Right Handed Bogaerts) after the Machado home run. If I was going to use Okert last night... and you have to use the people in your bullpen... there is nowhere to run... nowhere to hide. I would have brought Okert in to face the left handed Merrill. Let Schildt pinch hit for Merrill if he wants to... take out the CF... he probably won't. Roll the Dice on the light hitting right handed Campusano and then let Solano pinch hit for Wade. If Okert can't get through those three at the bottom of the order. Arraez is next would be his last. Then you can bring in Jax to face Switch, Left, Right, Right. Since he brought in Jax first. Okert was the guy who made sense to face Left, Left, Switch, Left which of course... was easily countered.
  23. If the Twins are going to continue keeping the young lefties away from left handed pitchers. They will need to spend three roster spots on short siders... for that role... Santana is a decent choice. Expensive for a budget challenged team but a good short sider. The problem is... Well... you and I both know the problem. Carlos has 288 AB's against Right Handers. .215 BA - .682 OPS. This is below average. He has 118 AB's against Lefties. .305 BA - .952 OPS. I'd say the Twins doubled down on 11... hit a 4. Stood on 15 while the dealer busted. I'd rather the Twins spend that limited 5 million dollars tucked away in their sock drawer on a player who can hit the right handed pitchers that comprise 75% of the arms on the MLB tour.
  24. I typically don't comment on the game unless I actually watched the game. I went to bed around the 4th inning. However, I will put my helmet on and say this. Okert vs LHB - OPS .530 - 59 PA's Okert vs RHB - OPS .956 - 88 PA's The batting order in the 8th for the Padres went Left, Left Switch, Left, Right, Right. If you have an Okert on your roster... That's when you deploy an Okert. Left Left Switch Left. Now... That may sound like a defense of Okert or a defense of Baldelli. It's not. If I could direct your attention to the 88 PA's vs RHB and the 59 PA's vs LHB. This is what happens when you roster specialists. Okert gets lefties out but faces more right handers. When you face more right handed hitters to the tune of OPS .956 WHIP 2.06. Is there anything special left about this specialist? I'd contend the benefit has been drowned. Okert, Margot... Same damn boat as far as I'm concerned. Oh Well... Today is a new day. Strap it on... Go Twins.
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