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Riverbrian

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  1. Riverbrian
    I'm sorry I can't help it. We should stay off of Anderson because I just brought him up as a poster boy. Belisle and Anderson are not names unrelated. Back in 2018... Matt Belisle 38 years old at the time was picked up on June 12th after being released from Cleveland which occurred after he was DFA'd from the 40 man and went unclaimed earlier in the year. The signing was questionable when you consider that he didn't require a 40 man spot with Cleveland and was just released anyway. But... you could still kind of justify it because the Twins were 29-34 and 5 games back in the Central at the time. If they believed in Belisle... they believed in Belisle. Belisle stayed on the roster for the rest of the year. 9.13 ERA 2.11 WHIP were his final numbers with the Twins in 2018. At the trade deadline... the Twins were 49-57... Now 9 games out. We were sellers... We traded Brian Dozier to the Dodgers, Escobar to the D-Backs, Pressly to the Astros and Lynn to the Yankees. Logan Morrison was done for the year (Thank God Finally) to undergo surgery. Buxton was hitting .156 and sent down to AAA in that old service time scandal. Sano was sent all the way down to Fort Myers. Belisle remained on his way to a 9.13 ERA. The top AAA pitcher at the time was 27 year old Nick Anderson. Belisle remained with the club, Nick Anderson remained in St. Paul in a season that the Twins sold at the deadline. The upcoming off-season was decision time on Nick. The Twins could have used real 2018 info on him by giving him a shot. He was due for Rule 5 protection in the off-season. He was going to require a 40 man spot. It would have been a great to discover if Nick Anderson's success in St. Paul could translate to the majors to provide information to help that upcoming 40 man spot decision. The club kept Belisle in a lost season didn't give Anderson to opportunity to show what he can do. Anderson as a rule 5 and very little to prove in AAA was probably going to get claimed. The Twins decided that there was something about Nick Anderson that they couldn't give him a 40 man roster spot and they traded him to the Marlins in the off-season for Brian Schales. Brian Schales was an unranked prospect whose primary skill was not needing a 40 man roster spot. Matt Belisle was out of baseball in 2019. Brian Schales was out of baseball in 2020. Nick Anderson after 4 months in the majors. He was traded to Tampa for their 4th ranked prospect and he was even better in the shortened covid season of 2020. . Belisle and Anderson will always be related in my mind. All they had to do... is move off of a struggling... real real bad struggling 38 year old on an expiring contract and try someone else. Nick Anderson was the obvious choice for that someone else.
  2. Riverbrian
    I have a bad habit of listing specific names and those specific names almost always become a distraction. I'll be listing names but I hope you understand that I'm really talking concept. I'm not even sure that "blocking" is the right word but let's use it because I understand what you are asking. To answer your question... Right Now... Camargo is blocking Julien. Isn't he? Camargo is blocking Julien and Severino. Like I said... I don't know if blocking is the right word. Farmer goes on the IL... Camargo is called up to replace him on the 26 man roster. Farmer isn't blocking anyone at the moment... He has been cleared off the 26 man for the time being. Camargo was the chosen player. He was called up AND THEN THEY DON"T PLAY HIM!!! Vazquez plays DH and 3B in San Fran. Camargo watches from the bench. I want to be clear... I'm not making any claims that Camargo is going to light the world on fire if you only let him play. I'm saying that Camargo has been up in the majors for what.... 13 games? this year. 4 AB's. Rocco is blocking Camargo who is blocking Julien and Severino and Keirsay and every single player in the system. Meanwhile Margot and Vazquez can settle into their comfy chairs because Wallner type production replacing Farmer isn't showing up to go 8 for 22 with a .727 Slug to challenge or push Margot or Vazquez. I have a problem with nobody being allowed to push or challenge guys with slugging percentage under .300 Sometimes injuries can make you better. In the case of Farmer... It sure could have. It's this type of pre-determination that I don't trust from anyone... I don't trust you... I don't trust myself and I seriously don't trust the front office to make these pre-determinations and that isn't a slam on the front office, you or I. The margins are incredibly thin with wild ups and downs. It is a slam on anyone who has made a pre-determination of what player X is. Here ya go... the big finish with the bold statement at the end. It is the job of the front office to use the information that you and I don't have access to. Use it to determine who should replace Farmer when he goes on the IL If that information is telling them to call up someone and then not play the player selected because apparently the chosen one isn't capable of competing with a .515 OPS that just can't yield playing time. If that is what the information is telling them. The farm system isn't producing below average fruit. The team is satisfied and settled. No need for any upgrades anywhere.
  3. Riverbrian
    We have spent more time on Nick Anderson than we should. My fault... I brought him up but... yeah he's my poster boy. There really isn't a rabbit hole here. If you call two years (you say one good year) a decent career... you are not seeing it. He didn't have a decent career... he was a late bloomer... picked up a nasty curve ball to go with his decent fastball and was probably deemed too old to be a prospect when that transition took place. The Twins didn't give him a shot. They assessed him wrongly right before he exploded for two years. But your right... this isn't worth continuing the conversation if Matt Barnes causes you to stop looking. I would have gladly taken Matt Barnes on my team in 2019. I would have taken Matt Barnes in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2021. Upset isn't the right word. I think player evaluation is an incredibly hard job. I'm not going to stand here and tell you that Keirsay is going to be a superstar if you just give him the chance. But I'll stand here and tell you that we have three vets... two of them won't be back next year and they are not performing well enough to keep you from trying someone else in 2024. Player Evaluation right more often than they are wrong. Maybe but that's a rabbit hole.
  4. Riverbrian
    Here's another truth. I believe that the Carlos Correa contract is an exception not a rule for the Twins. I do not believe that the Twins will be seriously players in the free agent market in future years. If they want to add great players to the roster. They have two legitimate options. 1. Develop and graduate great players in the minor league system. 2. Trade for a great player using players developed in the minor league system. Every struggling vet on an expiring contact makes each of those two things just a little bit harder. If they are able to graduate decent players... every player making the minimum frees up money to maybe make a dent in the free agent market.
  5. Riverbrian
    OK... Nick Anderson is my poster boy for this sort of thing. He's a perfect example. Honestly... I really don't think you should downplay it because I'm pretty sure that Nick Anderson would have to be a fairly large regret for the front office. It was a miss... and a fairly significant one. You know me... I do exaggerate a lot but in regards to Nick Anderson it was more of a I don't have time to look up exact stats thing, Please don't let that my work schedule on Thursday afternoon cloud your judgement. I'll just say... look up Nick Anderson's numbers in 2019 and 2020. He was one of the best relievers in baseball for two years. Only Josh Hader had a better K/9. He was the closer for the Rays going into the World Series. Even if you check out his 2019 and 2020 and don't agree he was one of the best relievers in baseball for those two years... He was better than Tyler Clippard or Blake Parker or Ryne Harper. Even if you don't agree that he was better than Ryne Harper... Forget his 15 SO9 and just think about this. In 2019 a 27 year old rookie that was given away by the Twins in the off-season was traded by the Marlins to the Rays at the deadline for their 4th rated prospect... I'll repeat... 4th rated prospect... forget the numbers... that's not numbers that is actual trade value. That's a 27 year old rookie RELIEVER getting the 4th rated prospect in what was a fairly loaded Rays farm system. Why is Nick Anderson relevant to this conversation? Yes... he is my poster boy for this sort of thing and he's my poster boy because the Twins in 2018... instead of promoting Nick Anderson... chose to sign 38 year old Matt Belisle instead. The same 38 year old Matt Belisle who was DFA'd by Cleveland that season. Cleared Waivers... reported to Cleveland AAA and was released maybe a month later. After being released. The Twins sign him and never give Nick Anderson the ball in the major leagues. Yeah... Nick Anderson. You cant screw up that badly and convince me that front offices have this assessment thing down. I respect the front office but I threw the rubber stamp away at the point.
  6. Riverbrian
    I get that... Believe me I understand that they have access to data that you and I don't and that data has to count for something... they have a bunch of analysts on the payroll and they do whatever they do full time... they are not doing this on the side like I am. I fully recognize the craziness of any attempt by me or others to criticize without the same information at our fingertips. However... that aside. Those things that they see, that we are not privy to, those things led to letting Nick Anderson go. Once they let Nick Anderson go for nothing and then they watched him strike out two batters an inning in the majors just like he was doing in AAA for us. The signing of Joey Gallo for millions and other things just didn't work out. They won't get the benefit of the doubt from me on these types of decisions because I know and THEY KNOW... they get it wrong sometimes. I insist on letting the players make the decisions for them but that's all I can do is insist. On Camargo... I have no idea what he can do... his numbers are not that impressive in St. Paul but they called him up for whatever reason and didn't play him for whatever reason. I didn't call him up... they did. He's here now and the guy in front of him has an OPS of .514. No doubt that try something else is for the White Sox and A's. However... replacing a vet who isn't playing very well... that's for the Twins, Yankees, Orioles, Gaurdians, Mariners, Astros. Royals, Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Cards, Dodgers, Padres. How do you replace a vet who isn't playing very well. You try something else. 😉
  7. Riverbrian
    I make no claims to know better... But I will make this claim. We/I/The Front Office doesn't know how... (pick a name from my haphazard list)... will do if pressed into major league duty. The only thing We/I/The Front office can say for sure... is how the players being pressed into duty this season have performed and we have a couple expiring contracts that... have not performed very well. My nutshelled suggestion and also my intended response to your quoted sentence... is to try someone else. Camago is called up... get him some AB's and let's see if he produces better than a .514 OPS. Diego is here now... let's see if he can produce better than a .556 OPS. If they can't... back down they go and let's try the next candidate out. It isn't lost on me and I do appreciate that Miranda was given a shot... made the most of it and is getting regular playing time until his injury because he earned that opportunity. That's the way it is supposed to work. However... Miranda getting that shot and succeeding is a case in point. The front office did not know that Miranda was going to do as well as he did. The front office did not know that Farmer was going to tank real real hard. If the front office knew either of these things would occur... Miranda would have broken camp with the club out of spring training and Farmer's 6 million option wouldn't have been picked up. I'm not going to claim to know anything about Camargo but what I do know is that Rocco has given him 4 AB's while Vazquez has a .514 OPS and handling the DH position because of the lack of options. .514 OPS is not good enough to keep anyone out of the lineup. 4 AB's is not enough to make any determinations. Therefore I think it's fair to point out "That we know of" be attached to your sentence that nobody playing well is losing playing time to these vets. BTW... Santana isn't part of my point. He's been decent this year. He's not a problem in my opinion. And missing on Farmer or Miranda isn't a criticism of the front office because all organizations make these type of missed assessments. My constructive criticism is how long does it take to try someone else. You have players on the 26 man roster right now who should get the chance to clear a couple of low bars being set.
  8. Riverbrian
    "That you know of".. belongs on the end of this. Doesn't it? 😉 We can't say for sure how Camargo would do? Right? 4 AB's and all. Diego A? Severino? Keirsay? Helmen? Holland? Could any of the above 6 out perform a .556 OPS? I don't know but that's a real low bar.
  9. Riverbrian
    I still believe that we are correcting from Vazquez, Gallo and Correa. Vazquez and Gallo signed almost immediately after Correa signed with the Giants. I believe they spent the earmarked Correa money on Vazquez and Gallo only to have Correa become available again. Just a Post Hoc theory from me but it sure seems to add up. This front office has been typically aggressive as either a buyer or seller in past trade deadlines. Last year at the deadline it was crickets despite having perhaps the best pitching staff we have seen in a long long time. Last off-season... despite winning a series and building on that momentum. A payroll cut was announced. These things smell budgety. Attendance down, television viewership down significantly. I still have that budget odor in my nostrils. I'm not expecting big additions at the deadline.
  10. Riverbrian
    It was announced that Kirilloff was being sent down to AAA, then what? six days later? it was announced that he isn't going to St. Paul but to the injured list instead. Not communicating an injury can't be a good thing. For the time being at least... He does preserve that final option which is a good thing but in the meantime. Players are rising past him on the depth chart and that can't be a good thing.
  11. Riverbrian
    I haven't read this entire thread but does anyone know if the Twins have received any money from their current deal with Diamond/Bally. It may be a reported 47 million but with the company trying to wiggle through bankruptcy proceedings... Issues with Comcast... I can't help but assume that collecting the 47 million could be challenging. If there are issues collecting the money... I'd assume that missing payments would lead to default and a lifting of the blackout restrictions. Since the blackout restrictions remain... I'd assume that the Twins organization is either getting paid or in limbo holding out hope that they will receive that 47 million owed to them. The next court date is at the end of the month... which isn't going to leave a lot of time for clarity on money available at the trade deadline.
  12. Riverbrian
    Kinda like me and the little projects around the house.. I'm on the roster and I'm great at fixing stuff as long as I don't have to actually fix stuff.
  13. Riverbrian
    That might be... it's the only plausible reason. In the meantime... Jeffers is the DH and Vazquez is Catching. Camargo is watching from somewhere in the pool of sunflower shells.
  14. Riverbrian
    I'm not as surprised by that because Rocco explained the reason for calling up Camargo as having to face a couple left handed starters this weekend. What shocks me is... Why not Yunior Severino who is already on the 40 man instead of Camargo? And follow that up with... OK... you called up Camargo... well then... why not Severino instead of Castillo now that you need two. Last time Camargo was called up he got no playing time. Unless he is the lineup today... he's going to get no playing time this call up either. They had two chances to call up Severino and passed both times. 16 Dingers in AAA. Is Yunior in the doghouse?
  15. Riverbrian
    Ever since I noticed my wife using talcolm powder in the garden to successfully keep bugs and rabbits away. I've been putting it in my pants as well. Since I started using it... I can honestly say that I've had no problem with bugs and rabbits in my pants.
  16. Riverbrian
    Experienced baseball players are also rollercoasters. Look no further than Correa last year. Buxton has been rather up and down. They have down years, average years and great years in no particular order. The difference is that the prospects get sent down and we blame it on development or inexperience. There doesn't seem to be a blanket assessment like development or inexperience when it happens to Randy Arozarena or George Springer.
  17. Riverbrian
    He has hit left handers very well during the time frame you have chosen. He's probably going to remain on the roster because he has done that. My argument is that he shouldn't. I don't want to tear apart Margot to make my point. His numbers are a low bar and somebody's got to play doesn't work for me. I'll just rephrase and go back to the beginning. There are not enough left handers in major league baseball for the front office to over focus on them. Margot (and Farmer) are on the roster to face left handers. There are not enough left handed pitchers in the league to commit two roster spots for the purpose of keeping our left handed hitters away from them. That's two of your 3 extra spots. The lack of left handed pitching and all of those injuries and poor performance that you pointed out earlier means that Margot and Farmer will face more right handed pitchers because they are taking up two of the 3 extra spots... Like you said... Somebody's gotta play and that's who is left to play. So whatever you gain facing left handers... you give right back when they face more right handers. Those two roster spots should go to someone who can at least hit right handed pitching better and on that front Margot and Farmer are a very low bar. If you bring in some players who can do better against right handers... you can push Larnach, Santana and Kepler for playing time and if successful that deepens the lineup against 75% of the pitching. Larnach, Santana and Kepler are doing OK... if you want to settle for what has been average production at best. If you don't try to upgrade those two spots. If you leave Farmer and Margot in their roles of attacking the left handers. Larnach, Santana and Kepler are cemented in average with no competition. You can't improve the offense... you just settle for what you got. I fully admit the offense in total has been great thus far so it's not a bad place to settle. However... your list of injuries and poor performance are still going to happen in July, August and September and October. In a nutshell... Constantly search for better. Cull from the bottom until the bottom is raised. Focus on the 75%.
  18. Riverbrian
    When you say I offer no solutions. I've written about 1,000 pages on the subject. Are you asking because we had to have Manual Margot... If Not Manual... By God who else is out there? Are you asking me to name names? I haven't done that. Are you requiring me to pull a Lars Nootbaar or something out of the air? I'm sorry if that's the case... It's not going to happen. I don't offer faux trades and assume they execute because I say so. It's good that Manual Margot has .899 OPS from June 1 to July 3. You mention that a lot... That's awesome... Let's get him in the lineup every day.
  19. Riverbrian
    I can't expand the roster to 45. It's set by law at 26 unless there is a doubleheader. By asking me if I'm going to expand the roster to 45. You really are not understanding my point. 26 spots with 13 typically held for pitching. 13 spots for position players and 9 need to play in every lineup. Because there are only 26 roster spots... it kind of suggests that Margot was going to be called upon. If the roster is 45... You can keep 3 or 4 Margot's around. I wouldn't complain as much. Since it's 26 spots... My solution... I wouldn't have rostered Margot at all. I would have thought to myself, I've only got 26 spots... we are going to need everyone on the 26 man so let's not roster someone who has never been able to hit right handed pitching. I understand that if 5 guys get hurt in the first month that the team is probably going to be forced into playing someone with lesser ability so I'd try not to purposely roster players with proven lesser ability like they did with Margot. Once you roster a player with lesser ability... you don't have to let them keep demonstrating that they have lesser ability.
  20. Riverbrian
    "Julien sucks, Castro removed from OF play and stationed at 2B - Kirilloff to IL - Wallner can’t hit in April, sent down (biggest issue) - Kepler out most of 3 weeks, IL - Larnach bad toe can’t be brought up, IL - Buxton out with knee problems, IL - Lewis out 58 games, Quad, IL and Castro at 3B many games, no OF play - etc………..often no left handed options for corner OF action or no other option in CF". Yes you are right... this is why Margot is getting more AB's against Right Handed Pitching. Nobody could see this coming when it happens every single year without fail? You can't justify off-season planning for these things by saying "Does “forced into action” mean anything"? He was fated the minute he was acquired to being forced into action because these things always happen. Forced into action means nothing to me. "Don’t see any spots where additions are needed - nor do I see issues with the length of the line-up as some elude to above". I might be the some you refer to. I know I've been eluding to lengthening the lineup to try and cover for pitching. You are ignoring your own post and not considering stuff like "Julien sucks, Castro removed from OF play and stationed at 2B - Kirilloff to IL - Wallner can’t hit in April, sent down (biggest issue) - Kepler out most of 3 weeks, IL - Larnach bad toe can’t be brought up, IL - Buxton out with knee problems, IL - Lewis out 58 games, Quad, IL and Castro at 3B many games, no OF play - etc………..often no left handed options for corner OF action or no other option in CF". There are still three months of baseball to be played plus the playoffs. Any chance of these types of things happening during the rest of July, August, September and the playoffs?
  21. Riverbrian
    I like your optimism and I agree with you... I also do not see us forking over the money or the trade pieces necessary to land a pitcher like Scherzer. However... I think it will be expensive to land the other starters you list as possible. Who knows... I've been wrong before. On the bullpen side of things. There are a few arms I like in our current pen but it's not 8 deep like it needs to be. The current left handed arm contingent doesn't make me sleep easy. I'd like to see the Twins try to get a decent left handed reliever to shore up the port side. A decent left handed reliever... not just a left hander who breathes at best. Offense: Make the Phone Calls - Take the phone calls. Look for ways to lengthen the lineup. Make it stronger because I agree with you... we won't get the big name starter at the trade deadline and the offense may have to cover for that. No matter what the front office does: It's July... This team needs to consider itself a playoff team right now and going forward.
  22. Riverbrian
    I like your concept and I agree with the concept. Here is my simplification: If you are going to play every day... you need to play like a player that should play every day. Playing Santana every day like he is Freddie Freeman is actually a deficit because Santana is not Freeman. If you are going to play average baseball like Santana. You need to yield playing time so others can prove they are better. If you are below average... you better not have an expiring contract. Sidenote: I personally don't use WAR either Fangraphs or Baseball Ref. I just don't trust zone metrics and I believe that zone metrics are over weighted in the measurement of WAR.
  23. Riverbrian
    13 players who can play. I've said that many times. I'll keep saying it. Bench? I don't believe in one. I believe bench time is earned through performance and I believe in replacing the players who earn bench time so therefore... I don't believe in a bench.
  24. Riverbrian
    As much as I have been complaining about things on this site lately. The truth is... I have no complaints. It's been a nice first half. The offense has been better than expected... I still think it has the potential to be better and I still think it needs to be better because: The pitching has been what I have expected. I was pretty sure that the collective pitching staff was going to down tick in comparison to last year. So... I felt that improved offense was the best way to over come the pitching down tick. If the Twins are going to win the world series this year... they will need to do it like the Rangers did it last year. By beating everybody with their bats.
  25. Riverbrian
    There are indeed much worse problems to have... but the problem has tenticles and dominos that stretch beyond the last spot on the roster. 1. The end of the 26 man is often lightly considered by fans. After all... a player who never plays isn't an issue until you need him to play. At that point he becomes an issue. Farmer has 151 AB's. He's a consistent starter against left handed pitchers. He's playing. Listing him as the second backup IF isn't really accurate. 2. Carlos Santana has been a decent free agent pickup. However... His OPS is .737 which is a little above average. His OPS against Right Handed pitchers is .686 which is below average. Yes Santana has been a decent free agent pickup but those are not... we should stop looking for a better player numbers. Those are not... must play every day numbers. 3. Trevor Larnach has done a decent job taking over for Matt Wallner. His OPS is .723... Yes Larnach has done a decent job but .723 is not... we should stop looking for a better player numbers. 4. Max Kepler has an OPS of .704... that is average. Yes... He was much worse last year at this time and he got extremely hot. However... unless he gets extremely hot... Average production is not... we should stop looking for a better player numbers. Kyle Farmer does not push Santana, Larnach or Kepler for playing time. Kyle Farmer on the 26 man provides no alternatives to average above him. It locks in Average above him... It prevents the team from lengthening the lineup with better hitters. It settles for average above him. An example of pushing someone for playing time? Brooks Lee is currently pushing players for playing time. If he continues to hit the ball... he could move Willie Castro to different positions which challenges Larnach or Kepler or Santana for playing time. Matt Wallner was sent down with a .513 OPS after 25 AB's (I think it was the right thing to do). Since recalled to the majors... In just 4 games and 11 AB's. He has raised that OPS to .911. Will he continue... who knows? but if he continues to hit the ball like this or at least hits the ball better than Larnach going forward... He is going to push Larnach for playing time and the lineup in September and the playoffs lengthens. Kyle Farmer or Manual Margot for that matter... do not push players for playing time. They take roster spots from players who could push players for playing time. I will never look at the 26th spot on a 26 man roster and minimize it's importance and there is never any reason to take a player producing average results and stop looking. The Twins offense has been great this year. It needs to be... the offense is going to have to cover for our pitching which isn't as strong. It's been great but there are three spots that could use improvement. It would be nice to enter the playoffs with a scary lineup card. Someone like Castro batting last in the order because 1 through 8 are monsters. You won't have 8 monsters... when two on the roster are short siders and 3 are merely average. Cull from the bottom and compete from within.
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