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Everything posted by Riverbrian
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You are still on ignore and you will remain on ignore. The assumptions of mine that you list are not my assumptions. They are once again distortions of my positions. Once again.. you don't understand and you don't understand belligerently. I ask kindly that you refrain from interpretation of my thoughts.
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- jose ramirez
- josh naylor
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Over the course of 162 games. We lost 4 more games than the Royals and Tigers did. 1 more loss every 40 games, The margins are pretty thin. Too thin for games not to matter. On the other hand... The Yankees lost 68 games last year. They had some straightening out.
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- jose ramirez
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They are two hugely different things. In the playoffs... Platoon all you want. You'll have a season worth of data to help you with who to lean on in the playoffs.
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- jose ramirez
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They have been so heavy on this course since Julien and the Young Lefties (Great Band) hit the scene. I'd be shocked if they reversed course. However... they were heavy on the third time through the order thing with the starting pitching and pulled back on that so I still have hope that they are capable of getting closer to a normal application of the platoon split. While they were doing the third time through the order thing they took it to a new level. Kind of like drinking 4 bottles of wine a night when a glass of wine is good for you. Now they have taken the lefty vs lefty thing to 5 bottles of wine a night. I'm hoping that Margot and Farmer facing more right handers than left handers this year showed them the issues with the strategy. I'm hoping that injuries we suffered at the top of the pile and will suffer again showed the need for a deeper roster with less specialty on it because we will need them to be more than what they are. I'm hoping that injuries we suffered showed that at some point the plan is not sustainable through the course of 162 games and that they realize the need to use games earlier in the year to prepare for suddenly needing your left hander to hit left handed pitching in September because the right handed hitters are on the DL. I'm hoping that they realize that Castro and Santana leading the team in AB's is not ideal. I'm hoping that they realize that signing Margot's every year to keep the integrity of it in place is not good strategy. I'm hoping that they realize that nothing is more important than the development of our cheap talent and that hiding them from the certain aspects of the game of baseball is not helpful in their development. I'm hoping that the playoff teams that were heavy lefty showed success without it and I'm hoping that the success of the Detroit Tigers with a roster made of youth shows them that youth isn't scary... crappy playing veterans is much more scary. I'm guessing of course... However... if they are going to adjustments... I assume it would have to be a little on the dramatic side given assumed financial limitations. If Payroll is going to limit possibilities... they pretty much have to roll with the majority of the 40 man already in place. Leaving multiple trades to free up money as the only option. Unless they surprise me... I expect the majority of the current 26 man and the 40 man to be in place.
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- jose ramirez
- josh naylor
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Yep... They will rue the day. Some of us may not notice the specific rue but yes they will. It's almost guaranteed. The consequence... the "rue".... the bill that will have to be paid in the future is: 1. They will have to limit the amount of lefthanders on the roster just to execute the strategy because you are limited on how many you can protect. 2. They will eventually have to face left handers because there are more lefties than they can protect and if they need to face left handers all of sudden... two years will have been wasted... when they all of sudden have no choice. 3. Aging vets will need to occupy roster space or worse yet... Young prospects from the right side of the plate will be utilized for short side duty. Even Kepler went through a significant stretch of time this season being protected against left handers. It happened when Julien was sent down and all of sudden they were light on lefties and heavy on right handed specialists. Margot was here to play against right handers so Kepler would sit so Margot could play. It became necessary to justify the existence of Margot. Kepler faced lefties when we had 4 lefties... once you lose a lefty to injury or poor play and go down to 3. Kepler has to fill the role just to keep the process intact. The Twins worked real hard just to keep this platoon strategy in tact throughout injuries and poor play. The commitment to the bit was impressive but sad. They will rue the day. I'm already ruing.
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- jose ramirez
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I've been singing this song for quite some time now. And I don't believe I will stop singing this song. 75% of Pitching is right handed pitching. The Twins need to stop employing specialists like Margot and Farmer to face the 25% of left handed pitching just so Wallner doesn't have to face them. Especially when you consider the fact that our 3 best players (Correa, Buxton and Lewis) who will face both left and right are often injured and show no signs of not being often hurt. Because when they get hurt... it draws Margot and Farmer into the lineup against right handers. Both Margot and Farmer faced more right handers than left handers in 2024. With our injury luck we can't afford to waste roster spots on specialists. Get more left handed hitters or hitters that are better against the 75% and take your lumps against the left handed pitching. You mention Miranda... you are spot on. Miranda is still developing. Making him a short side specialist at this stage of his career will turn him into nothing of future value.
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And yet... in 2024... Cleveland led the major leagues in plate appearances by left handed hitters. 3,984 of them. The Orioles were 2nd with 3602 of left handed PA's. The Blue Jays were last with 1,925. The Twins were 18th ranked with 2,588 Cleveland will roll out a lineup of L,L,S,L,R,L,L,L,S against right handed pitchers. The only R in that group is Lane Thomas acquired at the trade deadline. The top 7 players ranked by plate appearances in 2024 were lefty or switch. Against left handed pitching... the top 4 ranked by AB's were switch, left, left, left.
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Personally... I'd like to see the club increase the overall team speed. I'd like to see this... perhaps more than anyone. I'm watching what the Brewers and Guardians did on the base paths and it seems to be a clear weapon to create runs when runs are hard to come by. The rule changes have brought speed back into the game. However... as badly as I'd like to see team speed increased for better balance. I think it's important for all baseball teams. The players with speed still have to be able to hit the ball. I'm not going to advocate signing Garrett Hampson because he has some wheels.
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The Twins Have a First Base Problem
Riverbrian replied to Greggory Masterson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Not many. Do they have to turn into a full time starters? Can they just turn into David Fry? Actually... can they just do better than Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer or Cristian Vazquez did last year. 3 players who kept a roster spot all season long. The Twins committed 1,440 AB's to players who performed under .655 OPS for the year. Right now... Michael Helman is listed on the 26 man roster on roster resource. Does anybody really expect the 28 year old Helman to be on the 26 man roster opening day? I expect them to pay 4 million to a 30 year old Manuel Margot type instead. I expect players like Alex Verdugo and Alex Kirilloff to get chance after chance instead. Now I understand that the front office is supposed to know that Helman could never out perform Manuel Margot. They may be right. However... if they do indeed know these things. How did we end up with 1,440 AB's from players under .655 OPS. If they are that precise with their knowledge... they must have known that those players would OPS under .655 OPS for 1,440 AB's or so... and they rostered them anyway. If front offices know these things. How did the Mets choose Brett Baty over Mark Vientos? I don't know what a 28 year old Michael Helmen will do in the majors if given a chance. I make no claims. However... I am pretty sure that he won't be given a chance. Someone like Travis Jankowski will take that opportunity away from him. The end result of this sort of thing. Not many is the answer to your question.- 85 replies
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What Was the Point of Signing Carlos Correa?
Riverbrian replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I tend to agree with the basic thoughts of IndianaTwin. I have no idea what is happening behind those walls but the easiest explanation that fits into my head space is quite simple. That explanation is that... Something changed whatever that may be. Was it the RSN? Was it the pending sale? A combination of these things? Was it something that we haven't thought of? Something changed. Plans were altered on the fly. We have a GM who was either booted out politely or he said he had enough and left one of 30 well paying jobs that many dream of and he left it with no job lined up? Something changed is the only thing that I can come up with? I wish I knew but I don't. However... the Chaos is leaking through the limestone walls and visible to those walking past 1 Twins way. -
You see it perfectly. Lee as it stands is that 5th player in bucket 4 or else Miranda or Martin. If they don't acquire a bucket 4 worthy individual via acquisition. Bucket 4 is a big problem. 3 injury prone players at the top of the list. Brooks Lee who hasn't established himself yet... all we have is a fairly rough beginning and Willi Castro who plays a lot of positions... very valuable but basically average offensively. Bucket 4 is a problem and Castro's existence in bucket 4 is a problem. Bucket 2 is a problem because young developing players like Miranda and Martin are relegated to short side which is crappy for development. Also Miranda's splits suggest that he has been a better hitter against right handers. The Twins got some work to do this off-season in my opinion and how Castro is deployed could be a pivot point.
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I have a fun exercise for y'all. The Twins have consistently placed their position players into 4 buckets in the past two years, Bucket #1 (3 Players) - Left Handed Batters who need to be protected against left handed pitchers. This bucket has been the primary factor in the clubs lineup construction to the point that it's probably the primary factor in roster construction. Bucket #1 can't be denied or ignored. Bucket #1 is the Twins. Bucket #2 (3 Players) - Short side Right Handed Batters who need to face those left handed pitchers so left handers in Bucket #1 don't have to. You can't really have a bucket #1 without a bucket #2. Bucket #3 (2 Players) - Catchers Bucket #4 (5 Players) - Players who play most every day. That's 13 players, Here's the fun exercise part. Drop the players on the current roster into the proper bucket. Watch where Castro lands. After you do that and you realize that it's too much playing time for Castro. Try to reduce his playing time while also protecting the sanctity of bucket #1 and bucket #2. It won't take long to realize that Castro will lead the Twins in AB's again in 2025.
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Why the Twins Might Need to Trade Carlos Correa
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
My point was that they would have difficulty moving that contract because they paid more than other teams were willing to pay. However... I see the point that you so doggedly make. The Giants and Mets backed out. Thank you for pointing this out. This was clearly beyond my understanding. -
I have no idea but my thought has always been. The Twins are in a large clump of teams who are always in the same range in regards to payroll. I don't expect it to change... I assume they are clumped together for a reason but who knows... we might get an owner(s) who arrives and introduces us to a higher range of payroll. If that happens... Eventually the fans will be back to complaining about payroll once adjusted to the new higher range. 😁
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Why the Twins Might Need to Trade Carlos Correa
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Follow it through in your head. The Twins were willing to pay Correa more money than other teams were. If the Giants and Mets were willing to pay more money than the Twins. Correa would be playing for the Giants or Mets. If the Giants and Mets backed out... they were not willing to pay more. Doesn't matter if it was health or body odor. They were not willing to pay more. Correa had a pen in hand... the Giants and Mets did not provide a piece of paper with words on it. The Twins had the best offer that he could affix a signature to. If you want to repeat your point that the Giants and Mets originally offered more. Please don't. -
The Pohlads will explore selling the team
Riverbrian replied to Vanimal46's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
So... this would be generation generalizations? -
I don't anything about Arnold Schoenberg other than his work in the Terminator movies. However... In the Rock world that I'm much more familiar with. The exploitation of innovation reaches a point of exhaustion and that exhaustion produces the next wave, In 1967... Brian Wilson's Pet Sounds was innovation. Sgt. Peppers was innovation. Jimi Hendrix was an innovator in 1967. The Doors as well. After they changed the landscape... the copycats came, the industry searched for copycats to hopefully reproduce the success while new bands dug the sound. Until exhaustion produced Jim Croce, Bread and the Carpenters until which exhausted itself into Disco and Corporate Rock and so forth. The Twins application of analytics might be in the Disco phase. There doing something different and it's selling some records but it may be short lived.
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In my opinion... Relocation is currently very difficult. Again in my opinion... it's mainly because the owners have the country carved up and will stand in the way of teams entering their extended backyards. Seattle would fight a move to Portland. Atlanta would fight a move to Nashville much like Baltimore fought and had to be compensated for the move to Washington DC. Much like San Francisco fought Oakland moving to San Jose. Relocation is a rare thing in baseball and I think this was a big reason why. Now that the blackout restrictions are hopefully heading toward extinction across the entire baseball landscape. The odds of relocation just might increase accordingly. As for the thought of a new owner possibly relocating. Sure... It's a possibility. It's also a possibility that the Pohlads could relocate if they remain the owners. I'm not going to worry about that with ownership change. I'm not going to worry about it if they remain. However... don't get lost in market size as a preventative. Market size is a strong consideration but if Memphis comes a calling offering a brand new stadium with additional modern revenue streams in the package that don't exist at Target Field. They can make up the 10 million dollars less in audience and then some. . And keep in mind... Reports are that MLB teams will be making less in the future with RSN's dead and gone so the market size advantages may lessen a bit as a result. Also... Baseball Markets are regional. When trying to determine audience size... Don't think Market... think the entire territory. Will they remain regional in the new upcoming landscape of product distribution. I don't know but let's find out.
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Why the Twins Might Need to Trade Carlos Correa
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I know that the Giants and Mets offered more to Correa than the Twins did and I also know that Correa agreed to both offers. You typed "Backed Out" in your post. Do you not know what "Backed out" means? -
I love your composer comparables. Falvey/Lavine/Baldelli. IMO... Codifiers. The designation of codifier comes from how they seem to weight certain things and then go on a drinking binge with those certain things that they may have overweighted. I describe it this way. The Doctor (Data) may tell them that a glass of wine is good for them. They seem to take the doctors advice to heart by drinking 4 bottles a night which may not be good for them. For example... the left vs left platoon split. They have taken the same data that all teams have... over weighted it and are platooning to an extreme beyond what other teams are doing with the same data. Before that... the Twins had an extreme reaction to pitchers and the third time through the order. The data supports starting pitchers not doing so well the third time through. The Twins take the application of that data to a new level... beyond what other teams were doing with the same data. The data may say that a glass of wine is good for you but they got a brown paper bag on that bottle as they carry it around with them all day. Are they testing the perimeters by being an extreme version of this followed by an extreme version of that? I don't know. From my chair it just seems to create other unintended issues. Protecting your lefties as caused your right handed hitters to become exposed. Protecting your starters from the third time through the order exposed the bullpen. Anyway... I loved your post. I love the open sound of a suspended 4th. But have some balance though... don't hang out there all day... come back to the major third. Margot going 0 for 30 as a pinch hitter is being in a suspended state of dissonance with no resolve.
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Why the Twins Might Need to Trade Carlos Correa
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Are you saying that Correa decided not to play for the Giants and Mets? Are you saying that the Twins could trade the entire Correa contract to the Giants and Mets because they we're willing to pay more?

