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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    Good Luck with your prediction... MR. Executive... whoever you are. There are 26 players on all 30 teams who are going to perform above and below expectation for periods of time during the next two months that will blow any prediction he may have OUT OF THE WATER. Now if this executive does indeed have the ability to foresee the up and down progressions for 26 players on all 30 teams in the next two months. This Executive is pretty amazing and it obviously means that his team is winning every single year. I
  2. Riverbrian
    I understand the logic being used to justify trading Correa. At the same time... I am a million miles from understanding the logic being used to justify the trading Correa. Uff Da
  3. Riverbrian
    If Sano gets that Sano type of hot... he will impact this roster. If Sano is that Sano type of .100 hitter that check swings on slider... he will impact this roster. Personally... I'm excited to watch him tonight. It's been a while.
  4. Riverbrian
    In my opinion of course, Nobody goes into the "Haven't Been" column. Everybody has gotten significant playing time including Nick Gordon. The only real playing time casualties have been Garlick and Celestino when being utilized on the short side of the platoon. Celestino has gotten a lot of work against RH's due to injuries though. Sano joining the roster will move Kirilloff into more OF play to keep his bat in the lineup and get Sano some AB's. Miranda DH, 1B, 3B, Ushela 3B, DH, Kirilloff 1B, LF, RF, DH Sano 1B, DH combined produce plenty of combinations that keep everybody reasonably fed. Arraez is the guy that you got to feed as much as possible and he is available to get some playing time at DH, 1B, 3B and 2B. I think there will be plenty of playing time for all going forward, nobody will get splinters and that's good because we don't know who is going to get hurt next but whoever it is... we got a decent replacement for whoever it is and a replacement that won't be coming in cold. I love Depth.
  5. Riverbrian
    Which starting caliber players are not playing regularly?
  6. Riverbrian
    It's the terror of knowing what this bullpen's about. Watching some good friend scream "GET HIM OUT".
  7. Riverbrian
    This is one of those areas where I let the front office do their job. How much future they can mortgage along with what the other teams are asking is the information they should have their arms around. I know that we don't. My expectation is simple: I expect the front office to support a contender that they built. I'd appreciate practicality with a side order of brave. I'll let them worry about the cost... but they better be buying.
  8. Riverbrian
    The World Series is certainly a consideration when making these trade deadline decisions but I find it helpful to not skip a step in your considerations. We are currently fighting two teams to win the AL Central... We are fighting 7 teams for a wild card spot. The first step is to buy at the deadline to improve your team in the battle against the 7 teams trying to keep you out of the playoffs. There will be all of August and September yet to play, injuries can't be predicted other than predicting that they will indeed happen... September is usually an edge of the seat month for contenders with the clock ticking. The World Series ramifications of trade deadline decisions are the 2nd step only after the 1st step is achieved. Hopefully the players acquired at the trade deadline help you in both steps but skipping the first step to focus on the 2nd step in these discussions is skipping step one and that step is important in it's own glory.
  9. Riverbrian
    I think it's important to point out that this discussion isn't just North and South Pole. There is an entire globe in between the extreme reactions. There are levels of improvement between acquiring Juan Soto and picking up help off the waiver wire. When I say buy... that doesn't mean I'm saying drain the farm to get it done. I'd love to have Soto... who wouldn't. However... that type of acquisition would almost require a farm system reset to get it done. There are other options that will improve this team with a lesser price tag. However, being a buyer always comes with a price tag.
  10. Riverbrian
    In support of your point... I could also come up with examples (plural) of teams who bought at the deadline and went straight into the crapper short term after the purchasing and I could come up with examples of teams who sold at the deadline and became difficult to beat short term in August and September. There are no guarantees in baseball. We could pay the prospect price and acquire Castillo. Advocates of this deal see the Ace they long for. The Mind's Eye imagines Castillo matching up against Cole and now the Twins have a chance and they feel better. The mind's eye does not consider the possibility of Castillo getting lit up in the 1st inning... The mind's eye does not consider the possibility of Cole getting lit up in the 1st inning. Nobody in July thinks Yu Darvish will pitch like Yu Darvish did in October when they acquire Yu Darvish. There are no guarantees in baseball. However, there is balance on the other side of the ledger. There is a long list of acquired prospects who ended up just eating minor league food on the bus to Greenville. This team is in first place. It is in contention. You can't look at this bullpen and not attempt to make it better.
  11. Riverbrian
    I'm really sorry that you feel that way. You got yourself all hung up in the past and that is never healthy when tomorrow can be better if you let it. The playoff losing streak started in 2004. I just did a quick check of the roster. There are no members of the current roster that were on that 2004 roster so 2022 has nothing to do with 2004. The last loss was in 2020 to the Astros. While we do have members of that squad on our current roster. When you look at the 13 most prominent position players and the 13 most prominent pitchers of 2020. 16 of them are no longer here and we gained one of the Astros who beat us with Carlos Correa. Yesterday doesn't apply to today. 162 games are always a roller-coaster. We are in first place heading into the trade deadline. Support your local team. You have to get into the playoffs to win the playoffs. ?
  12. Riverbrian
    Le'ts look at the performance of the staffs since that is all that is needed to be done. No doubt... The Nationals had some great names like Strasburg, Scherzer and Corbin. In the 2019 Playoffs their pitching staff was 5th with a 3.47 ERA. The Astros team ERA was 6th in the playoffs. The Rays and Yankees were the best playoff pitching staffs. In 2019, that great pitching staff almost got Martinez fired as the manager... it took the Nats until June 29th to reach the .500 mark. When they reached the .500 mark they had the 7th best record in the National League.? @Nine of twelve The 2014 Giants had Madison Bumgarner. His performance was incredible. It would have to be considered one of the best post season performances of all time. He Threw 52 innings that post season. About 33% of all innings. The other starters for the Giants? Hudson was so-so with a 4.29 ERA while Peavy and Vogelson had ERA's over 6. The 2011 Cards had a playoff rotation of Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Edwin Jackson and Kyle Lohse and a playoff ERA of 4.05. They beat a Rangers team that produced a 4.32 team ERA. It was David Freese who cranked out 5 homers while hitting .397 over 63 Playoff AB's leading the Cardinals to victory. At the All-Star Break that year. The Cards were 49-43. The 2004 Red Sox had a playoff team ERA of 4.47. Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling were pretty impressive names but they had playoff ERA's of 4.00 and 3.57 respectively. 2003... Josh Beckett was fantastic. Brad Penny and Mark Redmen were the opposite. Carl Pavano showed up nicely in the two playoff games that he started. The Marlins team post-season ERA was 4.30. Dead last out of all the playoff teams. They beat the Yankees that year who had the best team ERA in the playoffs. The Marlins were in 4th place in the NL East at the all-star break with a record of 49-46. I'll say it again... If you had 8 ping pong balls and 2 of those ping pong balls were labelled wild card. You would have a 25% chance of pulling out a ball labelled wild card. In the past 20 years... 30% of the World Series titles were won by wild card teams. Each Wild Card team had varying degrees of talent that all played individually at varying degrees but regardless... a wild card team should not be favored to win it all. Yet... Wild Card Teams are beating the odds at a higher percentage then if there were no odds at all. Pitching is always important but it wasn't the reason it happened.
  13. Riverbrian
    I assume you are ranking them 7th by record. If so... you would be correct. They do indeed have the 7th best record in the American League at the all -star break. However, they are just 2 games back of being ranked 3rd. As a matter of fact... if they would have gone 5-5 instead of 3-7 over the last 10 games going into the all-star break. They would be ranked 3rd. I'll take it another step... If one pitcher in the bullpen doesn't cough up 4 games by himself against Cleveland. It's a completely different story all together. So... Since you asked... ? Here is what I'm saying. I expect our front office to be aggressive trying to improve the bullpen... I expect the Twins to buy.
  14. Riverbrian
    2019 Nationals reached the playoffs via wildcard 2014 Giants reached the playoffs via wildcard 2014 Royals reached the playoffs via wildcard (Woulda won it if wasn't for the other wild card team) 2011 Cardinals reached the playoffs via wildcard 2004 Red Sox reached the playoffs via wildcard 2003 Marlins reached the playoffs via wildcard 2002 Angels reached the playoffs via wildcard If All things were equal... 6 division winners and 2 wildcard teams (Not including the 1 game playoff that includes an extra wild card team to determine who the wild card representative is) The Wildcard team has a 25% chance of winning the world series based on two teams being wild card out of 8 participants. The Wild Card has produced 6 world series winners over 20 years for a 30% success ratio. I love ya... But I have no idea what you are talking about when you use the word "Favorites".
  15. Riverbrian
    How often does the favorite win the World Series? Do teams have the same set of conditions (IE The Same Rosters) from one year to the next? Is there performance variance from year to year, week to week, game to game with the players that make up every roster?
  16. Riverbrian
    I'm as capable of flawed logic as the next guy but thinking that ANY front office (not just the Twins) is going to be able to explain to ownership, the press, fans and the CLUBHOUSE that despite being in first place at the All-Star Break, we don't believe this team is good enough and therefore selling. That is flawed logic that exceeds by leaps and bounds my "extremely flawed logic" ? As a front office it is flawed logic to stick to a plan and not allow for necessary adjustments based on ever changing information. It is flawed logic by any front office to assume that any plan is immune to injuries, extended slumps or take into any consideration that the other teams have front offices as well. Buyers Buy Seller Sell First place makes you a buyer.
  17. Riverbrian
    Sure it does. Being in first place makes you a contender by definition. Only subjective extenuation can move a first place team to non-contender status and it can only take place in someone's head. In order to do that in your head, you have to completely ignore that the team is factually in first place. ?
  18. Riverbrian
    If you are in contention... You buy. If you are not in contention...You sell. Any argument that the Twins shouldn't buy because the team isn't strong enough or anything of the like will not stand up to the fact that the Twins are in first place... right now.
  19. Riverbrian
    Lance Lynn is exactly the type of player that I fear the most... If he was on my team. You can be competitive with average performance. You can survive below average performance. Terrible performance is what kills your team. Lance Lynn has been terrible and they keep tossing him out there because he has another year on his contract and he can't be sent down. This is the type of player that I fear the most. The terrible player who can't be dealt with. Lynn, Grandal, Moncada and Giolito can't be sent down, are not going to be cut. Collectively they add up to a 57 million dollar investment in something that the rest of the team has to rise up to overcome. You can be competitive with average performance. You can survive below average. Terrible performance will kill your hopes and dreams.
  20. Riverbrian
    Acquiring Josh Bell... I'm all for it because that is the type of rental bat that can make a big difference in your lineup. Baseballtradevalues is impressively close to accurate in most cases. It suggests that Woods-Richardson would get the deal done and I'd have to guess that the Nats would want pitching. It is only natural to be fearful that prices go up via bidding wars but the past few years I've noticed a more disciplined approach when it comes to parting with prospects. It really seems like all teams are protecting their prospect pool and not over paying. Trades are usually equal value. The complication with this deal is Sano. He will be back with very little trade value and a 14 million dollar club option for next year that kinda suggests that he won't be back with his inconsistent performance. If Sano could just do what we think he should do... It wouldn't cost us Woods-Richardson to replace him for an important stretch run. I know some here are pretty much done with Sano. I don't blame anyone for feeling that way but I don't quite see it that strongly. I'm OK seeing if Sano can get hot like he has in the past but there is no way I could justify the seeing if he can with a big question mark when a guy with no question mark is available. In other words, we can't let a struggling player with no future with the club prevent us from acquiring a difference maker. If the Twins are not picking up his option... he has no future with us. Bell comes aboard... Sano has to go. Now if the Twins plan on picking up Sano's option (which is not totally out of the question) then the acquisition of Bell is not a consideration. Sano now has a potential value to the club next season and we have to see if he can take us where we want to be. As for the playing time for Bell... Easily done. When Sano comes back... he will be worked into the lineup at 1B and DH. Kirilloff will play OF, DH and 1B. Rocco will continue to shift players around. Bell would be utilized just like they are going to utilize Sano when he returns. This isn't a problem. I'm for the acquisition of Bell.
  21. Riverbrian
    Not to mention... Incredible. Over half the season with no change would be absolutely incredible.
  22. Riverbrian
    I have been consistent in my advocacy of position flexibility. I believe it is necessary to allow the best minor league call up when the opportunity for call up opens up. I believe it is necessary in order to staff a deep 26 man roster, to find playing time for all and promote open competition through actual performance on the field. I have been consistent in my desire to see more position flexibility at the major league and minor league level. However, with that said... At Catcher... Nope... no way. That's a special defensive position that requires unique skills that need to be developed. Now... you can move catcher to other positions though like IKF or Varsho in Arizona.... Or Joe What's his Name with the Twins. ?
  23. Riverbrian
    A long time ago... Someone walked through the Big Lake Minnesota Area and said "That Lake is Big... Let's call it Big Lake". Whoever named it BIG lake obviously hadn't seen a larger lake or they got really excited and lost perspective at the moment. In the past 30 days: The Twins are ranked 10th in team ERA with a 3.65 Year to date the Twins are ranked 11th in Team ERA with a 3.78 Last Year the Twins were ranked 26th with a 4.83 Yet... Every morning... our pitching staff is horrible, brutal, a nightmare. If these are your adjectives... you shouldn't be allowed to name any lakes.
  24. Riverbrian
    I'm not a fan of rewarding playing time to a player who is struggling big time and doing so for a significant time frame but yet SHOULD be performing better. The highways are littered with these guys. It is perhaps the biggest mistake that any organization can make. It will damage your team in the present and bottleneck your team for the future. That roster spot could be used to find someone both better today and better tomorrow. No organization should ever reach the point where it believes that it can't find anyone who can perform better than Pagan has.
  25. Riverbrian
    Flexibility becomes a necessity when a team has actual depth. Fitting Bell in is easy, you take a little tiny bit of playing time from everyone. Multi position players are tentacles that reach out to the entire roster for the sharing of playing time across the entire roster so you can fit in a new impact bat in at any position. We currently have a bunch of multi-position players playing 1B. Kirilloff also playing OF means that Kepler (for example) can give up a little playing time to fit Bell into the lineup. Miranda also playing 3B means that Urshela can give up a little bit of playing time to feed to Bell. It all adds up to Bell getting playing time and nobody losing a tremendous amount of playing time to accommodate. Bell adds an OPS of .895 to the squad Kepler OPS .732 Urshela OPS .728 I like Kepler and Urshela but they shouldn't stand in the way of picking up a .895 OPS bat. Now admittedly... it becomes much much harder to fit Sano in.
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