Riverbrian

A slight change after taking the current 40 man roster into consideration and expected additions. Instead of Brad Hand... I'm bringing in Brandon Drury. SP SONNY GRAY 12.5 SP KENTA MAEDA 9 SP TYLER MAHLE 8 SP JOE RYAN 0.7 3 SP BAILEY OBER 0.7 2 SP SIMEON W. RICHARDSON 0.7 3 SP LOUIE VARLAND 0.7 3 SP COLE SANDS 0.7 2 SP JORDAN BALAZOVIC 0.7 1 SP CHRIS PADDACK 4 2 SP BLAYNE ENLOW 0.7 2 SP MATT CANTERINO 0.7 3 RP EDWIN DIAZ 16.1 2 RP EMILIO PAGAN 3 RP JORGE LOPEZ 3 RP CALEB THIELBAR 2 1 RP JORGE ALCALA 0.7 3 RP JHOAN DURAN 0.7 1 RP GRIFFIN JAX 0.7 2 SP JOSH WINDER 0.7 2 RP JOVANI MORAN 0.7 2 RP RONNY HERNANDEZ 0.7 2 C RYAN JEFFERS 0.7 2 C OMAR NARVEAZ 3.1 3B GIO URSHELA 9 1B-3B JOSE MIRANDA 0.7 2 1B-2B-3B-OF BRANDON DRURY 6.1 1B-OF ALEX KIRILLOFF 0.7 1 2B-1B-3B LUIS ARRAEZ 4.5 2 2B-SS JORGE POLANCO 7.5 SS-3B-2B-OF JORGE MATEO 0.7 SS-3B-2B-OF ROYCE LEWIS 0.7 2 2B EDOUARD JULIEN 0.7 3 OF BYRON BUXTON 15.1 OF MITCH HANIGER 15 OF TREVOR LARNACH 0.7 OF-2B-SS NICK GORDON 0.7 2 OF MAX KEPLER 8.5 OF GILBERTO CELESTINO 0.7 1 OF MATT WALLNER 0.7 3 BUYOUTS 4.5 TOTAL 147.7 GONE COULOMBE DFA GARLICK DFA MAGILL DFA CONTRERES TRADED FOR STASHAK JORGE MATEO FREE AGENTS SIGNED EDWIN DIAZ OMAR NARVEAZ BRANDON DRURY MITCH HANIGER

I won't argue with you because I have no idea. First year of free agency. Other than Judge he would be the top RH power hitting OF. I was thinking a 3 year deal at 45. Health might push him down to 2 years or 1. But yeah... I have no idea. His agent wasn't returning my calls.

If the Twins are rostering Pagan next year. They better be right. The past two years equal two strikes. Pagan better choke up for this next appearance.

I want to put a better one together. I might spend some time with a spreadsheet and the potential 40 man adds because in the end... that 40 man roster will dictate how many you can add and who needs to be moved.

Agreed However, Moran has options and can be stashed for a rainy day and it rains a lot. Gotta have those guys around.

In my opinion, Narvaez and Hand would certainly be 1 year contracts or 1 year with a club option. I'd guess that Haniger will take some years on the deal to get done. Health has been an issue for him and that is probably the main reason not to knock on his door. After all, we've had enough of the D.L. listings. I like the potential depth of this lineup so I'm knocking on Haniger's door.

SS is such a hard position to fill and stay under budget, All the SS's worth spending a chunk change on will be expensive. I'd love to have Correa back but Hanigar, Diaz and Narvaez fix 3 spots instead of 1. Injuries are going to happen so I want the depth that Martin and Lewis bring in St. Paul. We won games with Polanco at SS in the past and we can do it again. I think Baltimore is going to spend some money this year, it wouldn't surprise me to see them jump in the SS market and they also have that Henderson kid who can play SS if they don't so the Orioles could part with Mateo. A player like Mateo has speed (which we need), defense and the ability to play OF. He also has a little pop in the bat but I would like to see his on base percentage up. With Mateo on the roster, Royce Lewis could be the first call up with an injury at 2B, 3B and OF. Cave was our OF leader during the pennant chase. There is no way I'm looking at Kepler and saying this is the guy. I'm hopeful that the banning of the shift helps Kepler out but a RH power hitting outfielder is my first priority. Haniger is that.

I'm not going to get him at 15 if you have driven the price up to 20. ? I'm hoping the Trumpet Day Promotions will entice him. Free Trumpets to the first 10,000 fans.

Mitch Haniger, Edwin Diaz and Brad Hand added as Free Agents To add some speed. Jorge Mateo acquired in a trade with Baltimore for Cody Stashak. Still have Royce Lewis ready to go when he's ready to go. Otherwise... I'm going to let the starting pitching keep bubbling up. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.7M) 1B: Jose Miranda ($0.7M) 2B: Luis Arraez ($4.5M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Jorge Polanco ($7.5M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15M) RF: Mitch Haniger ($15M) DH: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) 4th OF: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Jorge Mateo ($.7M) Utility: Max Kepler ($8.50M) Backup C: Omar Narvaez ($5M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Josh Winder ($0.7M) RP: Brad Hand ($6M) RP: Edwin Diaz ($14M) Payroll is 9.14% under budget

How thin are the margins? Arraez was once 50/50 for a 40 man spot. Inches from being elsewhere.

Not only is it hard to predict for us mere mortals. It's hard for the professionals in those front offices to predict despite having the power to influence the results. Emilio Pagan shows up, the professionals watch him... they measure him... they analyze him. After all of that... they give him a high leverage position ahead of many others based on what they see. They are professionals... they are better at this than you and I. They were still wrong. Max Kepler has struggled for the past two years. Based on playing time... based on how they structure the lineup with his name in it... based on the deal they committed to him. They obviously assessed him higher than what he has been. They were wrong. If there is wrong (and there is) that we can actually see on the players they turn to,... wrong on the players that they believe will be successful. There has to be wrong on the other side that we can't see. Nick Anderson not getting a chance type wrongs. Oh Yeah... Nick Anderson... They were extremely wrong. This isn't to denigrate the front office and I'm hoping I didn't start rolling another ball down the hill because every front office makes these types of mistakes. Moral to the story. The margins are thin... the difference between the edge of a career and career is painfully tiny. There is only one way to find out if a player is going to make it or not. Give them the ball and let them show you.

It's harder when young players can be sent down while vets can't. If a rookie performs like Archer and Bundy they get sent down. If Archer and Bundy perform like Archer and Bundy they stay up to preserve depth because you are one foot shorter when they hit the wire and that depth will be needed later so you can't blame clubs for doing that. Also factor in health. Arms are hard to maintain so pitchers go down at some point and many use up their bullets in the minors.

It posted itself after I made one entry.

Not to mention there is no guarantee that Gordon will be next year what he was this year. Production fluctuations happen all the time from the first year to the next. The Twins have to add a good OF next year. They have to. Kepler, Gordon, Larnach are not names that you can fill into a space and say: Eureka, we got our guy so let's stop looking. Not to mention the forever cloud of Buxton health. The 5 OF spots on the 26 man next year has to look like this Buxton Good NEW addition Gordon Larnach Kepler The Twins have to add an outfielder this off-season. A good outfielder. Have to.

Here are the 10 outfielders that the Twins tried before they called up Jake Cave on August 2nd and played him 54 out of the final 59 games during a pennant chase. The Orignal 5: Buxton, Kepler, Kirilloff, Celestino, Gordon. Followed by 6. Larnach 7. Garlick 8. Lewis 9. Contreras 10. Beckham We apparently expect a lot from a utility outfielder. Jake Cave went beyond utility, he was option #11 in the outfield this year. Option #11 played in 54 out of 59 games and he led all of our OF'ers in AB's with 164, while producing a .644 OPS during a pennant chase after he was called up on August 2nd. An OPS of .644 is well below average so this isn't your Hollywood story of Option #11 showing up and grabbing a job with both hands as the team carries him off on shoulders. This is the story of option #11 becoming the best you got with a .644 OPS and needing him to carry you home during a pennant chase so desperately that he plays 54 out of 59 games with a .644 OPS. Yet... we expect a lot of a utility OF because we expect Rocco to still win the weak AL Central with option #11 leading the OF in AB's with a .644 OPS. What if you can't find 3 guys that you want to play every day? How well does a player have to perform to hold down that every day job while holding a guy or two on every roster to sporadic sub. What if your 5th Outfielder is better than your 2nd Outfielder. What are the odds that the 3 chosen ones are healthy all year?

Great article. Just think... Jake led the outfielders in AB's during a pennant chase. Jake was our go to guy during a pennant chase. We needed Jake to bring us home during a pennant chase. Just think about that for a while because I'm sure very few would have predicted this in March. I was searching for a way to express the incongruity of needing Jake Cave to lead us during a pennant chase in September. I couldn't figure out how to make this peculiar point without denigrating Jake because that wouldn't be fair to him. The approach you took of praising Jake while pointing directly at the elephant in the room was very well done and fair. First Class

Obviously a Dry sense of humor on display.

I did and if he is on the roster next year... I will ask for it again and the numbers the OF produced in September is why I was asking. I'd rather know before the trade deadline if he can help us after the deadline. ?

It wasn't that long ago. We should all still remember what happened. Let's look at what our OF provided for us during a pennant chase. Sorted by AB's in September 95 AB's -- Jake Cave OPS .628 77 AB's -- Gilberto Celestino September OPS .570 43 AB's -- Matt Wallner OPS .798 37 AB's -- Kyle Garlick OPS .270 20 AB's -- Max Kepler OPS .300 272 How About August if we can remember that far back. ? 81 AB's -- Nick Gordon OPS .891 81 AB's -- Max Kepler OPS .505 60 AB's -- GIlberto Celestino .606 53 AB's -- Jake Cave OPS .699 49 AB's -- Byron Buxton OPS .750 The OF killed us. It should be fresh in our memories. If you want to keep a specialist on your roster. You run the risk of needing that specialist in September and I remember it like it was just a month ago.

Whatever data is making the front office believe in him has been trumped by his actual performance which makes most of us not believe. If they are bringing Pagan back... they better right. Those roster spots are gold and should be treated as such. You can't hide anyone in the bullpen in consideration of how many innings the starters are throwing. If they think they can fix him... he better get fixed. I need them completely bullpen serious.

According to the bullpen usage chart. Rocco should have lots of fresh arms ready to go today. ?

You are the Top Twins Fan? Surely whoever was in 2nd place will rise past you now.

I appreciate ya... I find analogism's much more interesting compared to the sterile rehashing... so you get an A+ from me. Using yours Yes... your seat would be feeling the heat given the "great amount of leeway in how I stock my store, as I know my neighborhood and my customer base". However, let's add a dimension. Holiday corporate has employed a team of one-hundred plus analysts that have been tracking the inventory, cost, pricing, daily sales, dead inventory write-offs at your store, along with similar data from all the Holiday Stations stores and whatever data they can get their hands on from Kwik-Trip, Casey's, Stop-N-Go and Superamerica. You get daily emails with your store data and how you rank amongst your peers. You have an hour long weekly conference call every Wednesday at 2PM with your bosses, vice-president of analytics, chief human resources and marketing officers. You discuss your successes and challenges on the ground, best practice discoveries are shared, long term goals and progress are discussed, atta-boys and recommendations are given. You are completely in the the loop, as a matter of fact, the car-wash that you recommended for your store will start construction in March. The data says that you average 50 cartons of milk and 15 bags of Oreo Cookies sold each day. However, they share data with you that the Kwik-Trip on the other side of interstate is selling 50 cartons of milk and 30 bags of Oreo Cookies a day because the product placement makes you walk past the cookies on the way to the milk. The recommendation is therefore 50 cartons of milk and 30 bags of Oreo cookies and a new placement for the Oreos. So... you purchase 50 cartons of milk and 30 bags of Oreo cookies daily and you rearrange the aisles. When you only sell 10 bags of cookies a day. Is it your rear in the hot seat? Holiday corporate has identified an opportunity in Oreo cookies and has implemented a company wide strategy to increase cookie sales, you understand the plan, you follow the company strategy so your rear is perfectly comfortable. Here is how you lose your job. You throw the emails away, you tell the people on the conference call to stick it because you know your neighborhood and you follow the folks on Twinsdaily who insist that Pop Tarts are better. So you only purchase 2 bags of Oreo cookies and you place them next to the air fresheners and WD-40. If your supervisors have analysts, marketing, the entire organization heading north and you insist on walking south... you will not last long. ? There is no way that Rocco is fighting the cookie strategy. When he starts fighting it... we will find out with the announcement of his termination, along with the obligatory thanks for his years of service.

Many many years ago. I landed my first Classic Rock programming job and we had an event that first week that a lot of our listeners would attend. I was going to talk with all of them and gather their opinions in an effort to build the perfect radio station because I was young, inexperienced with reality and I was going to create the greatest radio station ever on my way to being the best radio programmer ever. I talked to a listener and he told me that we played way too much Pink Floyd. I listened to him, I took him seriously and I respectfully talked about the popularity of Dark Side of the Moon, The Wall, Album Sales, I talked about the test scores of Wish You Were Here. I gave him actual rotation data on the approximate intervals of how often Pink Floyd is actually played. I compared Pink Floyd air play to the Stones, Zeppelin and other artists. I told him exactly how many Pink Floyd songs that we consistently play and how many we would consider playing. I took him seriously and I answered honestly, I spent a lot of time explaining Pink Floyd and the role it played in the format and the radio station. It didn't matter... he replied to everything with something along the lines of "If I wanted to hear Pink Floyd, I'd listen to the Soft Rock Station". I thanked him and worked my way through the room to gather more opinions from others in my quest to be the greatest ever. The next person that I talked with told me that "WE DIDN"T PLAY ENOUGH PINK FLOYD". Rocco has no chance of avoiding pitchforks. No matter what he does... they are coming from one direction or the other.

Seemingly is an important word that you use. Speaking for myself. I have often questioned decisions made. By choice, I am not going to pour that gasoline over this burning website.