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Fire Dan Gladden

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Everything posted by Fire Dan Gladden

  1. Fire Dan Gladden
    How many fans were trampled in effort to get their favorite player?
  2. Fire Dan Gladden
    Your contract offer seems reasonable. But if I am Joe Ryan, I am not sure I take that offer this year. If next year is similar to last year, (not unreasonable), that offer could rise dramatically. How much does he want to bet on himself?
  3. Fire Dan Gladden
    Sounds right NIck, I think this contract offer would get it done. I also think it is probably 10% higher than anything he would be offered (though it may be what it takes to get him to come here). I think the opt outs would be necessary, as the Twins would probably be promising him a a better complimentary cast. If it doesn't happen, he could leave. We all would need to understand the last 3 years we would be overpaying for his skills, but the 10 years is less scary with his age than some of the others. I also agree the bigger picture needs to be looked at: Ownership and the FO would need to use this contract as a stepping stone, not an excuse. There would need to be some willingness to push the Twins self-imposed salary cap when needed. Not sure if I see that happening over the long haul.
  4. Fire Dan Gladden
    Again, we are back to what the Twins are truly expecting to accomplish this year. If they are in win-now mode, Abreu makes sense on a two year. high AAV deal. He can rotate in and out of the DH/1B slot with Arraez. The downside is that Arraez would need to play other positions for 30ish games over the year. Not sure it f the Twins want to do that. It would also help if the Twins could bring in another strong defender for the 3B/SS slot to help take some of the heat off of Abreau when he is in the field. Outside of positional defense, he fits almost every hole the Twins are looking to fill. If this is a reload year (not rebuild, we have too many pieces), then makes no sense at all.
  5. Fire Dan Gladden
    Short answer: No Still too many variables left to be answered: Will he regress at the plate? Can he actually play 3B? If they thought he could play 3B, why didn't give him more innings there last year? I am not saying he won't, but putting all your eggs in one basket right now is foolish. This topic needs to be revisited in February.
  6. Fire Dan Gladden
    1) Long term contracts for players on the wrong side of 30 rarely do not work out for the entirety of the contract. You typically are vastly overpaying for the last third of the deal. Few teams can truly afford to do this and carry dead salary, the Twins are not one of them. 2) Pitchers and health are such a crapshoot. The general risk is high. Without having any statistics in front of me, I would bet that the longer contracts have an insanely high risk of time lost due to injury, not including time getting back to full strength. 3) The Twins have avoided anything longer than 4 years since the dawn of time. Most of your "dial movers" will get contracts exceeding that, which puts the Twins out of the running. High AAV on shorter deals will only get you so far. 4) If you truly believe that this offseason will be lost if they do not sign Rodon, prepare to feel the pain. He will get overpaid by somebody, and in a few years we will look back and be glad we didn't sign him.
  7. Fire Dan Gladden
    Not as low as Magadan, but I get your point. Grace is probably closer than Olerud. Funny how BR has Tony Gwynn in his list of comps...
  8. Fire Dan Gladden
    I hate to be the one to say this, but I don't see the Twins making any major moves with their SP. The argument can be made that they have strong talent coming back to the rotation from injury. They have a handful of guys that are ready to go at the MLB level. There are only a handful of SP in the FA market that would truly move the needle, they will either be overpaid (Rodon), or will take "reasonable" salaries to true contenders. Anybody they could reasonably trade for will either cost half of the AAA team, or would bring less to the table then a guy like Sonny Gray (who is good, but comes with risk or baggage). I think it is more reasonable to assume they make runs at a few of the bigger RP names out there
  9. Fire Dan Gladden
    Arraez is quickly becoming one of the most dependable bats in the majors. A throwback, similar to a few other former 1B: John Olerud and Mark Grace. He has the potential to stay a solid hitter for many years. As with most things, there is a caveat: Will he be able to stay healthy. If the Twins were smart, they would tell Arraez they are not going to move him around, keep him at 1B, and let him physically prepare accordingly. Knowing how his body will be used every day can significantly help him prepare. I would extend him, but I wouldn't break the bank. Both sides need to recognize the risk involved. 5y/$50m sounds about right. Throw in some achievable bonuses if necessary ($500k for each batting title, etc.).
  10. Fire Dan Gladden
    Everything you say here is true. But all of the advanced metrics also support the "third time through the lineup" concerns with Gray as well. The reality is that it is probably a combination of both. Bottom line, there is no reason to expect Gray will ever be an innings eater.
  11. Fire Dan Gladden
    Correct me if I am wrong, but weren't advanced metrics kind to Arraez at 1B? We know Polanco was playing injured most of the year, and is a bounce back candidate Farmer (for the moment) appears to be solid at SS. Miranda at 3B is a HUGE question mark. Not seeing much of a change here this year unless Correa comes back.
  12. Fire Dan Gladden
    Maeda should really be the driving force here on the decision, probably 80% his call. I believe that he and Twins have already have decided what the are going to do, with the only hiccup being a setback in his rehab. Personally I think he will be a SP with probably a somewhat stricter pitch count his first 7-10 times through the rotation. He isn't a young kid, he knows his body and what it can/can't do. He is too important to be put in the BP, especially if they are trying to stretch him out.
  13. Fire Dan Gladden
    Another player that does nothing to move the needle: Does not provide superior offense over anybody currently in place. An outfielder that doesn't play CF Health is a question Would require a higher salary based off his name and history Why is he considered an option?
  14. Fire Dan Gladden
    Elvis Andrus made $15M last year... a pretty big leap considering they just did a salary dump with Urshela. Andrus put up numbers pretty similar to Farmer last year too... I am not trying to fight, just want to be realistic here.
  15. Fire Dan Gladden
    Just out of curiosity, let's assume the Twins do not sign any of the big 4 SS (a reasonable expectation even if they make concerted efforts). What do you suggest they do?
  16. Fire Dan Gladden
    All due respect, somebody really needs to write an article debunking this usage thing. He was used this way for the three years prior to coming to the Twins, he was extremely successful and protected in his current role. HIs next team is going to use him the same way. Why change it? That being said, I would look to extend him, something in the 2y/$28m range with a 1y/$15 team option that kicks in based starts made over that time.
  17. Fire Dan Gladden
    I am not down, just cautious. He has a strong offensive track record, but this is not Joe Mauer we are talking about here. He still has a lot to prove on both offense and defense.
  18. Fire Dan Gladden
    I don't think they are going to pass on the SS, I think that they will not come here regardless. I think last year was an anomaly. The rare occasion where a big name player bets on himself for one year for something bigger (not too different from Judge) All things being equal, a guy like Correa will sign with a big market team because of the outside-of-baseball opportunities. I think to get one of the top four SS, they will need to wildly overpay. Imagine the chaos around here if the Twins signed Correa for 10y/$375m.... Even worse, if they signed Swanson for 6y/$180.
  19. Fire Dan Gladden
    How quickly everyone forgets the one-hit wonders of the past... As it stands today, Miranda is probably your starting 3B. Everybody better hope he figures it out, because there is no safety net at the moment.
  20. Fire Dan Gladden
    As with most of the moves being made right now, it is impossible to get a read on everything until we start Spring Training and have a more holistic view. That being said, not sure why anybody would argue about a team building cheap depth. The Twins rest people all of the time, this is a decent move for your 5th infielder, and a also provides a decent stopgap until they are ready to move up one of the younger players. I really like this move.
  21. Fire Dan Gladden
    There we go, the million dollar idea. A new pitching metric: Outing Effectiveness (OE). How many outings does a RP give up zero runs? What is their OE percentage? Could factor in inherited runners as well. I think this, coupled with ERA, gives a stronger picture of the effectiveness of a RP.
  22. Fire Dan Gladden
    I would be very interested to know how this number correlates to other success measures (ERA, etc.) across the league. Logic would dictate there is a direct correlation, but the limited appearances and innings of RP could easily skew those numbers.
  23. Fire Dan Gladden
    I think it was 240 innings, not really enough to know. If this is the route, I am hoping so.
  24. Fire Dan Gladden
    Rendon played 47 games last year. The Angels picked up Urshela as 3B insurance, with some SS backup. The type of pickup a big-market team can afford to make
  25. Fire Dan Gladden
    Lewis is out for a good chunk of the year. Lee hasn't seen one major league pitch, MIranda is unproven at third base. Right now, they do not have a major league 3B. Putting a lot of unproven young guys at key positions is the textbook definition of a rebuild. Look at the roster as-is, and you will see a ton of 1-2 year guys. My comment was not to be taken as fact, but more of keeping the antennas up. We need to wait and see what happens with other higher salary guys: Kepler, Gray... there was some rumblings of Polanco being trade bait earlier this year. I am withholding further judgement until the entire offseason plays out
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