Cody Pirkl

The Dodgers were absolutely holding him back to save money. His third time through splits were bad, but so are just about every MLB pitchers. The Dodgers were famous for manipulating pitchers innings. Part of it was money related, for guys like Ryu it was health related, and in some cases it was just because of their pitching depth. Some of the best analysts in the baseball world are rejoicing Maeda escaping the "Dodgeritis", the term coined to describe their consistent limiting of pitchers.

This is a fantastic write up. I've been interested in diminishing returns on those sliders, especially on Wisler, but had no idea where to even start looking. I wasn't even aware of Chacin's issue with overusing it. I'll be very interested to watch both of these guys and how Wes Johnson tweaks their pitching style.

That is true, but Wisler has a lot more of the statcast metrics that the analytically inclined front office would be interested in. Even between last year where Wisler was had a 5.61 ERA 4.23 FIP, his statcast numbers looked much better than Chacin's career year in 2018 with his 3.50 ERA and 4.03 FIP. With his Ks and being limited in exposure as a reliever, he could be one small tweak away from a monster season with the raw skills he has. Chacin however kind of is what he is. It'll be interesting to see how they work with both though, I'll be watching their pitch mixes closely.

This is sarcasm right? Polanco is a top 10 shortstop in baseball. His defense isn't ideal but he was still one of the most valuable players on the team last year.

The point I was trying to make was that they can't afford to limit guys as aggressively as they did with Odorizzi, who's trips through the order they limited almost every outing. That being said, they can still be more aggressive than they could afford to be in the past.

The Twins swung and missed on the big addition to their pitching staff they were looking for this offseason. What the front office did instead was load up on depth for the rotation and bullpen as well as add Josh Donaldson as an impact addition. We’ve seen plenty of coverage on how this will benefit the pitching staff itself, between the defensive improvement and addition to the already great offense. However, I think there may be a small shift in strategy that the Twins will employ in 2020 to get the most out of their rotation.Advances in analytics have made the notion of “third time through” pretty common knowledge in baseball. It only makes sense that the more at-bats hitters gets against a laboring pitcher in a game, the better chance they have at success. Check out the league-wide slash lines allowed by starting pitchers for every time through the order in comparison to Jake Odorizzi for 2019 though. Download attachment: Odorizzi.PNG Jake Odorizzi is an extreme example of the penalty, often seen in a pitcher’s third trip through the order. Despite this glaring flaw, Odorizzi is coming off a career year in 159 innings due to the fact that only about 20% of the batters he faced were seeing him for the third time in an outing. In short, Rocco didn’t allow Odorizzi to show the largest weakness in his game in 2019. Just about every hitter he faced was seeing him at his best. Some pitchers handle the second and third time through better than others. Below you’ll see how Berrios, Pineda, and Bailey have fared throughout their careers: Download attachment: Splits.PNG Berrios has done a fine job of maneuvering lineups multiple times as you’d hope from your ace. While Pineda’s career marks are better than 2019s league average, both he and Bailey have seen hitters make significant gains in their third matchups. Bailey in particular really sees them tee off as they get more comfortable. It’s unrealistic to limit these two as aggressively as we’d seen done with Odorizzi in 2019 without wearing down the bullpen. Neither has quite as bad third-time-through stats though, and when considering the padding the offense should be giving regularly, there should be plenty of times to just let them ride. The 26th man all but ensures a 13-man pitching staff, as well, there are plenty of arms down in Triple-A if the bullpen gets overworked for a stretch. At least one of the starting trio of Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer will be ready to provide length as needed. The Twins should have much more opportunity to lift their starters in tight ball games. I’d argue that the rotation that ranked fifth in ERA for the AL in 2019 got better this offseason. That being said, there are certainly some red flags. Most pitchers are not wired to be able to effectively cruise through a lineup three times, and the Twins have at least three who can give up some some serious damage if pushed. Because of that, I think we’ll see Rocco earlier in games get more aggressive with his use of a bullpen that boasts considerable talent and depth. Pineda and Bailey certainly have upside, and having the ability to limit them to two times through the lineup gives them the best chance for success. The rotation may be a weakness for this team, but it’s far from a disaster. Look for Rocco and company to do all they can to get the most value possible from them in 2020. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

I wouldn't think too much about Jon Gray unless Arenado gets traded for a package that doesn't include a player that would readily replace him like Kris Bryant. The Rockies don't want to cave for a rebuild and for better or worse, aren't going to start selling off parts like Gray until they have no choice.

Pirates may have become the number one trade target for pitching at the moment. Colorado doesn't look ready to sell (though they should) and Arizona is going all out to compete. Love Musgrove but Archer shouldn't cost much to acquire at all.

With regards to Berrios, Steamer makes absolutely no sense to me. They're expecting a decrease in K/9, increase in BB/9, a ridiculous spike in homers despite coming off a 1.17 HR/9 in the year of the juice ball, and basically the worst year of his career as a whole since his debut. It looks like Steamer somehow thinks Berrios has peaked at 25. As somebody who looks around at projections quite a bit for fantasy baseball, Berrios has one of the most absurd projections I've seen for seemingly no reason.

We went from pulling out our pitchforks at the sight of the bullpen lineup to being downright optimistic about it by the end of 2019 as Ted laid out earlier this week. We seemingly saw more pitchers take steps forward than in any year in recent memory across the organization. Some pitchers like Taylor Rogers had their trajectory pointing toward a career year in 2019. Others like Tyler Duffey emerged from a questionable past and future. It's stories like Duffey's that keep baseball fans guessing. A fringe MLB pitcher turned elite seemingly out of nowhere. It's the system he was in however that unlocked his talent, and there just might be more unlikely aces to emerge in this Twins bullpen in 2020.Here are three under the radar relievers that could be surprise bullpen aces in 2020. Jorge Alcala Alcala was acquired for Ryan Pressley in 2018 and was an unspectacular starter at the time. Inconsistent control and a questionable offspeed mix warranted a move to the bullpen midseason in 2019. He went on to put up a 0.98 ERA with 18Ks and 4 walks in 18 innings before getting called up to the majors, where we only saw two appearances from him. His approach was similar to what we’ve seen pitchers like Tyler Duffey be so successful with; Cut out everything but your best offspeed pitch and fastball, which sits mid to high 90s for Alcala. Look forward to seeing what Alcala can do with a full season in the bullpen, even if he doesn’t break camp with the major league team. Cody Stashak Cody’s are cool. Stashak is one of the overlooked arms that have come up through our system because he gets things done in a different way than the Alcala’s of the world. In his 25 MLB innings, he averaged just 91.7 mph on his fastball. Stashak however sports plus command, allowing only 10 walks in 78.1 innings in 2019. While that’s an unexciting skill for some, he also struck out 24.1% of batters he faced in his debut season. That pairing could be very effective, and I’d expect Stashak to only improve further as he tweaks his approach to attacking hitters. He may not reach his career highs in the minors of 30%+ K rates or 12+ K/9, but Stashak may have a ceiling we haven’t yet seen. Stashak should be headed north with the Twins to start the year, and will be getting every opportunity to move up the ladder in the pen. Fernando Romero By now you’ve read this name and you’re moving your mouse to the “close” button on your browser. Please don’t. Romero is essentially in the position that Duffey was last year, as this may be his last shot. We all saw what the Twins were able to unlock in Duffey however, and I’d argue Romero has an even higher ceiling with his big time fastball and still relatively young age. In 2016, his K% was around 25% for the first time since 2016 in A ball, his most successful season to date.The biggest issue for Romero in 2019 however was his walks. 40 of them in 71.2 innings isn’t going to play. It may have been a result of his mechanical tweaks however, as the coaching staff was trying to find a way to make his stuff click. If he can get the walk issue ironed out, he still has the raw stuff to dominate professional hitters as we’ve seen in flashes over the years. You may not believe in Romero at this point, but I’d encourage you to believe in the organization’s ability to find the missing piece. We’re just beginning to see the payoff from a complete overhaul of this organization, especially on the pitching development side. While we discuss these three breakout candidates for our bullpen in 2020, there’s an argument to be made for dozens of other arms in the system who could exceed expectations this season. Expect to see plenty of young guys test their mettle at the major league level. Who’s your bet for our bullpen breakout in 2020? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email --- Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

The only skill he has that would qualify him to lead off is his speed. Other than that, the rest of the options like Kepler, Arraez, Polanco, even Donaldson would be better options because of their on base ability. Buxton may benefit from that spot just because of the hitters he'd have behind him but with the way our lineup stacks up for 2020, that'll be negligible no matter where he hits.

Love the Dyson idea. I forgot he was out there but he's a perfect backup outfielder in case Buxton goes down. Dude can still run too. Nice article.

He's like Zack Wheeler light in the sense that we'd be paying for the potential. He's a building block for the Marlins future and would cost a lot to pry away for a guy that put up 2.3 fWAR last year and greatly outperformed his peripherals. He probably costs more than a guy like Matt Boyd in my opinion, who has stronger indicators with the Ks he puts up and has already been more valuable. I bet they'd be asking about someone in our top 5-6 prospects just for a base piece for a trade.

He was a better hitter on the road but also had a much higher slugging % with more HRs at home. That's an easy assumption that he knew what pitches were coming for sure. Unless they were using some other way to signal pitches on the road though, he may have also just had himself a career year (with some cheating baked in).

That's approaching Ryan Pressly money which is certainly possible. Pressly had a few less concerns however with his walks and had two seasons of being legitimately one of the best relievers in baseball. I think for May to draw that kind of money, he has to have another dominant season and convince a team that he's their 2021 source of saves.

I'd have to guess the reason we haven't seen any starting pitching moves outside of Kluber being made is because the asking price is sky high. Teams likely saw the high cost in free agency even for guys like Keuchel and Kyle Gibson and want more than their arms are worth. By the deadline, some teams may fall into a position where they lose all the leverage of having a 0-0 record. If they're out of it, teams like the DBacks won't be able to give the illusion of wanting to hold onto Robbie Ray. If the Rockies go full rebuild and dump Arenado, they can't pretend Jon Gray will be around for their next competitive window.

I think he's a perfect guy to mix and match in the leverage role behind Rogers, Doof, May. Definitely had some luck last year but I think his base skills are good enough to be a serviceable reliever. May have a bit more room to grow too since he only just transitioned to the bullpen.

Yeah you've got to wonder where his career is at right now if he had stuck in the rotation instead of... Mike Pelfrey or Tommy Milone. God bless Terry Ryan.

Trevor May has become a force out of the bullpen for our Twins over the last two years. Even as a former top prospect, his development into the player we've seen is incredible given the injuries and change he's overcome. Let's take a dive into May's rise to elite reliever, and what his future may hold.I've officially been "knighted" as a Twins Daily contributor as Tom Froemming has informed me, and I couldn't be more grateful to be able to plaster my thoughts on the front page of this community for all to read. For my first official post, I wanted to take a look at one of my favorite career arcs and players in general. THE TRADE Trevor May was a fourth-round pick by the Phillies in 2008 and was considered their number one prospect by 2011 according to Baseball Prospectus. Philadelphia was in need of a center fielder after the 2012 season however, and their top prospect became expendable. As we know, the Terry Ryan regime was firing off center fielders left and right in their tenure. In December of 2012, they were able to trade Ben Revere for Trevor May and (Twins Legend) Vance Worley. The bottom line was that the Twins believed they had their future center fielder in Aaron Hicks coming up the pipeline and traded their light hitting center fielder for what they valued as a future rotation piece. THE STARTER May would start 27 games for the Twins AA affiliate in 2013, pitching to a 4.51 ERA and striking out over a batter per inning before being moved up to Rochester in 2014. After 18 starts and a 2.84 ERA, May got the call to the majors and struggled to the tune of a 7.88 ERA in 9 starts. 2015 was May's most successful season as a starter, as he actually pitched to a 4.37 ERA and a much better 3.25 FIP in 15 starts to begin the season. The team's rotational depth however pushed May into a bullpen role. He would make one more start down the stretch in 2015. THE RELIEVER The move to the bullpen looked like the beginning of something great. In 31 1/3 innings, May put up a 2.87 ERA and held opposing hitters to a line of .250/.305/.392. with well over a strikeout per inning. Despite his strong finish to 2015, he stumbled a bit in 2016 where he saw his walk and homerun rates increase, which resulted in a 5.27 ERA. The potential was still obvious when looking at his 32.1 K% however. His season would end abruptly with a stress fracture in his back. It would be in the spring of 2017 where he would be diagnosed with a torn UCL which would cost him his 2017 season. THE BEAST May made his first appearance in over a year on July 31, 2018. He would go on to make 24 appearances in 2018 boasting a 3.20 ERA with a 35% K rate. He was simply dominant for the remainder of the season. The Twins bullpen was their clear weakness to start 2019. Taylor Rogers dominating on the back end however, allowed May to take the time he needed to continue adjusting after Tommy John without having to take a high leverage role. He began the season pitching well, albeit not quite on the same level as his finish to 2018. His strikeouts hovered closer to about one per inning. His walks also crept up to around 4.5/9 innings in the first half of the season. What we saw in the second half from May was nothing short of incredible. He held opponents to a .159/.220/.354 line. He finished the season with a 2.94 ERA. His FIP of 3.73 was a likely result of his 3.64 BB/9, a number that consistently decreased as the season went on. His 11.05 K/9 trailed only Rogers and Duffey in the Twins bullpen, as May flourished in a fireman role pitching in just about every situation from fifth inning stopper to picking up a save here and there. For more context on May's dominance, see his Statcast data below. His lowest measurement in context to the rest of the league is his curveball spin rate falling into the 55th percentile. Other than that, that's a lot of red. It's difficult to find a pitcher who grades out above average in just about every Statcast category. For reference, here are the Statcast measurements from Daniel Hudson who the Washington Nationals leaned heavily on down the stretch and closed out the 2019 World Series. Hudson is two-years older than May, but only surpasses him in fastball spin rate by Statcast measurements. Hudson slightly bested May in ERA, BB/9 and HR/9 and in 2019, with peripherals that do not reflect his final line (2.47 ERA vs 3.97 FIP). Despite the warning signs in his peripherals, Hudson was recently rewarded with a two-year $11 million contract with the Nats. THE FUTURE Trevor May enters 2020 penciled in to play another significant role in our bullpen plans with a salary of about $2.2 million. This is his last season before he hits free agency for the first time in his career after his age 30 season. While he didn't close out the 2019 World Series (Maybe 2020?), we've seen that teams are not shy about handing out sizeable contracts to Statcast darlings, especially when they already have had some form of sustained success. Former Twin Ryan Pressly serves a similar fireman role with an occasional save and signed a contract that pays him almost $9 million annually for the next two years, as well as a $10 million vesting option in the third year. That number shows that teams aren't only paying up for saves these days. May wouldn't command quite so much on the open market, but there would likely be interest. A team could certainly pay him handsomely to be a fireman or even a closer depending on the situation. While his recent performance bodes well for the Twins going into 2020, it likely means a decent payday for him in the near future. Relief pitcher is one of the most volatile positions from year to year. At age 30 for a team at the beginning of their window, should May be receiving an extension for similar money to Daniel Hudson listed above? The Twins front office may very well be confident in the young arms on their way up or those that have already arrived. They may be more inclined to focus on that Buxton or Berrios extension. I for one would love to keep Minnesota's favorite Twitch streamer in a Twins jersey for a few more years. What do you think? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I think there's certainly a good argument to be made that he would be a good signing. If they announced that they'd picked him up on a reasonable deal today I'd be happy. I just wonder if they're inclined to do so with the way the pitching staff is already constructed. He had elbow problems last season and while another arm in the mix for the rotation would be great, we're already counting on missed time from Pineda and Hill. He'd be a good swing man for the rotation and bullpen, although I think they like their young guys to be able to fill that role. The other issue is the 40 man at this point. They already have to dump someone for Donaldson. I would get rid of Wisler all day for McHugh but it looks like the front office has taken a strong interest in him so I don't know that they would. They may be at a point where the pitching additions they're looking at are high impact and they're trusting the lower rungs to be filled out by the young guys.

Yeah I agree. I've heard a lot of talk about Sano losing his greatest strength as a fielder being his arm by moving to first base. While he's got an absolute cannon, almost half of his errors were on throws. While that doesn't mean learning to scoop and whatnot will be easy, if you eliminate those errors and the range he has to cover to be effective, he could cut down on some mistakes.

I think in order for Marwin to get his 500 ABs it'll take some injuries. He graded out positively at 3B last year but was traditionally below average, his only positive defensive position has usually been outfield where we're stacked. In terms of his offense, he's more often than not going to be a below average hitter at corner outfield and corner infield as well. He's an extremely valuable player but that value comes from his ability to play anywhere.