Cody Pirkl

He's like Zack Wheeler light in the sense that we'd be paying for the potential. He's a building block for the Marlins future and would cost a lot to pry away for a guy that put up 2.3 fWAR last year and greatly outperformed his peripherals. He probably costs more than a guy like Matt Boyd in my opinion, who has stronger indicators with the Ks he puts up and has already been more valuable. I bet they'd be asking about someone in our top 5-6 prospects just for a base piece for a trade.

He was a better hitter on the road but also had a much higher slugging % with more HRs at home. That's an easy assumption that he knew what pitches were coming for sure. Unless they were using some other way to signal pitches on the road though, he may have also just had himself a career year (with some cheating baked in).

That's approaching Ryan Pressly money which is certainly possible. Pressly had a few less concerns however with his walks and had two seasons of being legitimately one of the best relievers in baseball. I think for May to draw that kind of money, he has to have another dominant season and convince a team that he's their 2021 source of saves.

I'd have to guess the reason we haven't seen any starting pitching moves outside of Kluber being made is because the asking price is sky high. Teams likely saw the high cost in free agency even for guys like Keuchel and Kyle Gibson and want more than their arms are worth. By the deadline, some teams may fall into a position where they lose all the leverage of having a 0-0 record. If they're out of it, teams like the DBacks won't be able to give the illusion of wanting to hold onto Robbie Ray. If the Rockies go full rebuild and dump Arenado, they can't pretend Jon Gray will be around for their next competitive window.

I think he's a perfect guy to mix and match in the leverage role behind Rogers, Doof, May. Definitely had some luck last year but I think his base skills are good enough to be a serviceable reliever. May have a bit more room to grow too since he only just transitioned to the bullpen.

Yeah you've got to wonder where his career is at right now if he had stuck in the rotation instead of... Mike Pelfrey or Tommy Milone. God bless Terry Ryan.

Trevor May has become a force out of the bullpen for our Twins over the last two years. Even as a former top prospect, his development into the player we've seen is incredible given the injuries and change he's overcome. Let's take a dive into May's rise to elite reliever, and what his future may hold.I've officially been "knighted" as a Twins Daily contributor as Tom Froemming has informed me, and I couldn't be more grateful to be able to plaster my thoughts on the front page of this community for all to read. For my first official post, I wanted to take a look at one of my favorite career arcs and players in general. THE TRADE Trevor May was a fourth-round pick by the Phillies in 2008 and was considered their number one prospect by 2011 according to Baseball Prospectus. Philadelphia was in need of a center fielder after the 2012 season however, and their top prospect became expendable. As we know, the Terry Ryan regime was firing off center fielders left and right in their tenure. In December of 2012, they were able to trade Ben Revere for Trevor May and (Twins Legend) Vance Worley. The bottom line was that the Twins believed they had their future center fielder in Aaron Hicks coming up the pipeline and traded their light hitting center fielder for what they valued as a future rotation piece. THE STARTER May would start 27 games for the Twins AA affiliate in 2013, pitching to a 4.51 ERA and striking out over a batter per inning before being moved up to Rochester in 2014. After 18 starts and a 2.84 ERA, May got the call to the majors and struggled to the tune of a 7.88 ERA in 9 starts. 2015 was May's most successful season as a starter, as he actually pitched to a 4.37 ERA and a much better 3.25 FIP in 15 starts to begin the season. The team's rotational depth however pushed May into a bullpen role. He would make one more start down the stretch in 2015. THE RELIEVER The move to the bullpen looked like the beginning of something great. In 31 1/3 innings, May put up a 2.87 ERA and held opposing hitters to a line of .250/.305/.392. with well over a strikeout per inning. Despite his strong finish to 2015, he stumbled a bit in 2016 where he saw his walk and homerun rates increase, which resulted in a 5.27 ERA. The potential was still obvious when looking at his 32.1 K% however. His season would end abruptly with a stress fracture in his back. It would be in the spring of 2017 where he would be diagnosed with a torn UCL which would cost him his 2017 season. THE BEAST May made his first appearance in over a year on July 31, 2018. He would go on to make 24 appearances in 2018 boasting a 3.20 ERA with a 35% K rate. He was simply dominant for the remainder of the season. The Twins bullpen was their clear weakness to start 2019. Taylor Rogers dominating on the back end however, allowed May to take the time he needed to continue adjusting after Tommy John without having to take a high leverage role. He began the season pitching well, albeit not quite on the same level as his finish to 2018. His strikeouts hovered closer to about one per inning. His walks also crept up to around 4.5/9 innings in the first half of the season. What we saw in the second half from May was nothing short of incredible. He held opponents to a .159/.220/.354 line. He finished the season with a 2.94 ERA. His FIP of 3.73 was a likely result of his 3.64 BB/9, a number that consistently decreased as the season went on. His 11.05 K/9 trailed only Rogers and Duffey in the Twins bullpen, as May flourished in a fireman role pitching in just about every situation from fifth inning stopper to picking up a save here and there. For more context on May's dominance, see his Statcast data below. His lowest measurement in context to the rest of the league is his curveball spin rate falling into the 55th percentile. Other than that, that's a lot of red. It's difficult to find a pitcher who grades out above average in just about every Statcast category. For reference, here are the Statcast measurements from Daniel Hudson who the Washington Nationals leaned heavily on down the stretch and closed out the 2019 World Series. Hudson is two-years older than May, but only surpasses him in fastball spin rate by Statcast measurements. Hudson slightly bested May in ERA, BB/9 and HR/9 and in 2019, with peripherals that do not reflect his final line (2.47 ERA vs 3.97 FIP). Despite the warning signs in his peripherals, Hudson was recently rewarded with a two-year $11 million contract with the Nats. THE FUTURE Trevor May enters 2020 penciled in to play another significant role in our bullpen plans with a salary of about $2.2 million. This is his last season before he hits free agency for the first time in his career after his age 30 season. While he didn't close out the 2019 World Series (Maybe 2020?), we've seen that teams are not shy about handing out sizeable contracts to Statcast darlings, especially when they already have had some form of sustained success. Former Twin Ryan Pressly serves a similar fireman role with an occasional save and signed a contract that pays him almost $9 million annually for the next two years, as well as a $10 million vesting option in the third year. That number shows that teams aren't only paying up for saves these days. May wouldn't command quite so much on the open market, but there would likely be interest. A team could certainly pay him handsomely to be a fireman or even a closer depending on the situation. While his recent performance bodes well for the Twins going into 2020, it likely means a decent payday for him in the near future. Relief pitcher is one of the most volatile positions from year to year. At age 30 for a team at the beginning of their window, should May be receiving an extension for similar money to Daniel Hudson listed above? The Twins front office may very well be confident in the young arms on their way up or those that have already arrived. They may be more inclined to focus on that Buxton or Berrios extension. I for one would love to keep Minnesota's favorite Twitch streamer in a Twins jersey for a few more years. What do you think? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I think there's certainly a good argument to be made that he would be a good signing. If they announced that they'd picked him up on a reasonable deal today I'd be happy. I just wonder if they're inclined to do so with the way the pitching staff is already constructed. He had elbow problems last season and while another arm in the mix for the rotation would be great, we're already counting on missed time from Pineda and Hill. He'd be a good swing man for the rotation and bullpen, although I think they like their young guys to be able to fill that role. The other issue is the 40 man at this point. They already have to dump someone for Donaldson. I would get rid of Wisler all day for McHugh but it looks like the front office has taken a strong interest in him so I don't know that they would. They may be at a point where the pitching additions they're looking at are high impact and they're trusting the lower rungs to be filled out by the young guys.

Yeah I agree. I've heard a lot of talk about Sano losing his greatest strength as a fielder being his arm by moving to first base. While he's got an absolute cannon, almost half of his errors were on throws. While that doesn't mean learning to scoop and whatnot will be easy, if you eliminate those errors and the range he has to cover to be effective, he could cut down on some mistakes.

I think in order for Marwin to get his 500 ABs it'll take some injuries. He graded out positively at 3B last year but was traditionally below average, his only positive defensive position has usually been outfield where we're stacked. In terms of his offense, he's more often than not going to be a below average hitter at corner outfield and corner infield as well. He's an extremely valuable player but that value comes from his ability to play anywhere.

Clippard will probably function as a lefty in the bullpen and I doubt another lefty is a big goal for the front office. Wisler is already a flawed project pitcher and while he's not a lefty, I can't imagine them taking on another similar project unless it's at his expense. I also don't often compare 40 man's between teams because its apples and oranges, but if he Detroit didn't have space, I can't imagine the Twins being able to trim a guy off to fit him in.

I agree, the organization shouldn't be blamed every time a player doesn't pan out. It happens all the time. Teams spend tons of time developing players but they're human beings, there's no process that you can put in place to make them successful 100% of the time. Arcia played for 4 teams in 2016 and flared out with every single one. Occam's Razor for me is that it's an issue with the player be that mental or physical rather than the organization. Some guys have all the physical tools and end up in baseball oblivion.

Fernando Romero seems like a guy who just throws instead of pitches. It's not often that you see a young promising guy's walk rate increase like his has as he developed. I also don't really understand why they've got him throwing a sinker that he can't control. I remember watching him pitch this year and he was throwing 96 with life but it was in the bottom of the zone where guys were just dropping the barrel and hitting lazers.

That's why he had a positive defensive runs saved this year for the first time since his debut, the shift. That's the metric that's likely effected by it. Shifting doesn't appear to help OAA and it definitely doesn't help range which you see in his terrible UZR. They can hide him to an extent, but he's still going to make his fair share of mistakes.

They may move him to another position eventually but we have literally nobody else to play SS right now unless Adrianza becomes a full timer.

I don't want a team to trade for him at all, actually. I moreso just pointed out his defense because if a team like say the Red Sox traded for Polanco, they'd be able to look at his metrics and know that they don't need to move Xander Boegarts off SS for him. If Polanco was a second baseman, he'd likely have more defensive value and would still be a premier player at his position. There probably aren't a ton of teams that would value him as a shortstop longterm.

There's no situational context for these stats but it's "outs above average". That doesn't mean that Sano is responsible for 5 outs not being converted, it means it's 5 less than the average 3B. The significance of that -5 is much more than just the 5 outs it displays.

I mean within reason. Polanco was the worst infielder in baseball by Statcast numbers and it's backed up by his second most errors in baseball. It can't be understated just how much of a butcher he was in the field last season, but that shows how valuable the rest of his game is.

He's a 26 year old all star shortstop who put up 4 wins and played 153 games last season. On top of that, he's being paid less than $10m/ year on average for the next 5 years. His defense sucks, but if we were to trade him right now to a team that could afford to move him to 2B, we'd be able to get a ridiculous haul.

I don't know that Todd Frazier is the upgrade I'd want to move Sano off 3B for. He had 1 DRS at 3B, and paired with his declining offense which is already a nonfactor against right handed pitching, I don't see him being a noteworthy difference. It seems like if we want to make an all encompassing upgrade it's Donaldson or bust.

I definitely agree that Marwin could be a great 3B defensively. My issue with handing him the keys full time is his offense. He was a below average offensive player last year, and has been just barely above average in his career. The bar to clear for league average at corner infield is even higher. I think you would lose a significant amount of his value by making him an everyday player at one position as well. I know it's assumed that we can make some sacrifices on offense, but how much do we want to do that? Can we just assume that Sano is going to take to 1B right away and that the defensive improvement will offset the value lost by downgrading the offense and losing Marwin's versatility? I know that Marwin would be a solid defender at 3B, but I'd argue that coming into the offseason off 101 wins with a head full of steam and settling for moving our utility player to a full time role, paired with the other positions we've had to settle on, would be disappointing.

I happened to write an evaluation on why I believe Polanco could be a bit better in 2020 last night before all of the Statcast data hit. Most of it is focused on his health and I certainly recognize that even if he improves he'll still be well below average. I like Arraez to 3B, he showed well in 2019 there in limited fashion. It's too bad Jose Iglesias signed already. Maybe Yolmer Sanchez is an option, although I don't think he grades well at SS.

Larnach has less than 200 innings at AA and has 0 innings played at 1B in his professional career. Kirilloff missed a good amount of time last year and had a down year due to wrist issues, it was also his first season playing just part time at 1B, Raley only played 44 games last season and probably needs to start the year at AAA. Rooker looks MLB ready as a hitter but he's no longer a first baseman. Rolling into the season trusting a premium position to any of them would be rolling the dice bigtime.

A lot has been made of Jorge Polanco's rough defense this season, and rightfully so. His fielding percentage was the worst of his career aside from 2018, where he only played about half of the innings. His 22 errors were second worst among shortstops only to Tim Anderson. I think 2020 holds an opportunity for improvement however, as Polanco recovers from injury and continues to develop defensively. In some ways, Jorge Polanco's defense has already progressed. Defensive metrics are far from a perfectly understood science, but Polanco graded out positively in defensive runs saved for the first time since his debut season which only included 12 innings played at the shortstop position. I believe this may be a result of simple defensive positioning as we see shifts become more prevalent in baseball. The data becoming available also allows the Twins to line Polanco up efficiently to complement Sano's range inefficiencies at 3B. While I believe these statistics could continue to evolve and allow for even more improvement to Polanco's defense in 2020, I'm confident that there's more to his possible improvement up the middle. You may have forgotten, but Polanco's status coming into 2019 was in question. So much so in fact, that The Twins flew Ronald Torreyes to the Twin Cities for opening day in case Polanco wasn't ready to play. He came out of spring training with what was described as "shoulder fatigue". The reason I looked back on this was because Polanco's defensive struggles had a lot to do with his arm in 2019. Of Polanco's 22 errors, 13 of them were misfires on throws. Despite his career long struggles at shortstop, this was the first time throwing errors have made up such a significant percentage of Polanco's mistakes. As we know, Polanco was ready to play on opening day and went on to grind out 142 games at shortstop. While Polanco was on the field more consistently than most of our lineup, there's no way that he didn't struggle through an undisclosed injury or two throughout the year. I'd guess he played through the remnants of his shoulder fatigue to start the year, and it's certainly possible that he had it pop up again later on. This could have easily accounted for some of the many throws in the dirt we saw in 2019. Perhaps a spring without shoulder troubles is results in less throwing errors in 2020. Polanco's ankle surgery at the end of 2020 also shouldn't be swept under the rug. An ankle impingement for a shortstop could be debilitating when pivoting and shifting directions. We don't really know how long this ankle had hampered Polanco's play. Several defensive metrics were the worst Polanco has had in recent years when you would think that a 26 year old would still be athletic and improving at his position. Ultimate zone rating (UZR) is a Fangraphs metric that essentially cuts the playing field into "zones" and assigns that zone to a corresponding position player to cover. Polanco saw his UZR drop to -9.1, suggesting Polanco was atrocious at covering the the full range of an average shortstop. While still below average, his -3.9 in 2018 and -4.7 in 2017 (his last full season at shortstop) were much better than this season when I would have expected him to have improved. He improved this metric each year from 2016-2018. Could a bum ankle have quietly effected Polanco's range in 2019? Baseball is an unpredictable game. Defensive metrics are far from perfect and can commonly vary from year to year. Injuries can appear seemingly out of nowhere and can linger until properly addressed. Polanco appears to be on track for spring training in 2020 and will hopefully open the year healthy as opposed to 2019. With his physical issues addressed and the stats department ever improving, might we see a surprisingly strong showing from our shortstop in 2020?