Cody Pirkl

What we've seen now since the front offices promise to strike when the window is open is two opportunities that they've failed on. We saw them get Romo and Dyson at the trade deadline. Both solid moves to try and moderately help the team despite Dysons injury, but they ignored the biggest issue which was starting pitching. Now we're looking at this offseason which looks eerily similar. Plenty of moves that marginally help us, but not really addressing our biggest needs in an exciting or aggressive way. Meanwhile we've seen the White Sox push their rebuild by being aggressive, challenging us to respond. Last years trade deadline cost us greatly when we essentially has 3 starters for the playoffs, one totaling under 30 innings in the majors. Will this bland and disappointing offseason cost us again? We're due for regression in 2020 and haven't done much to combat it other than run out a similar team. In fact, we're currently looking at Marwin Gonzalez as our 1B which would be about as sad as we could have expected coming into the offseason. The front office is due for every bit of criticism they'll get at this point. It's become a situation where Falvey and Levine need to earn the good will of the fanbase back. They've done a good job of putting this team together to be a contender, but at some point they have to stop settling for scraps and do something to significantly improve. The minors are stacked with future logjams of tradeable talent. The payroll is embarassing as it stands for a team coming off 101 wins. Do something.

Because by fWAR they were both 4+ win players and were top 20 in all of baseball by that measurement. Can't imagine there were too many rotations in history with 5 top 20 pitchers in the MLB.

These signings in a vacuum are great. If Indians fans are saying they're happy to see these signings, they don't understand what they're talking about. Homer Bailey is better than Gibson and Perez and the front office has said they have been watching him since the end of last year with changes in mind to improve him even further on his 4.57 ERA and 4.11 FIP. This isn't a Martin Perez "let's take a bad pitcher and make him serviceable" move. Bailey is serviceable already and will at least be a good fill in for Pineda with the ability to stick down the stretch. If you're mad at the Rich Hill move, you're looking too hard for something to be upset about. He's 40 but he's been an enigma since he returned to the MLB. Even if he doesn't pitch until July, he's a wild card that we have in our back pocket down the stretch and has put up ace like numbers in pretty much every healthy stretch he's had for the last 5 years. He's being paid $3m with incentives, and if he never pitches again we pretty much lose nothing. You can be mad that they didn't sign any of the top free agent starters, I am. Would you rather they just admit defeat and go into the season with only Berrios and Odorizzi in the rotation though just so the fans can say "I told you so"? They got a guy who can eat up innings which we desperately needed and a guy with tremendous upside and playoff experience. They're doing all they can after missing on the top end of free agency and they made probably the best moves they could have with what was left. They're also still talking to Donaldson and I'd expect them to pivot to the trade market for more pitching if they can't get him. They were likely favorites before making these moves and both of them likely increased their odds, granted not as much as signing Gerrit Cole would have. I'm pretty happy with both of these moves.

I don't think fans understand that Wheeler and MadBum were never coming here. They had destinations they wanted to go to and actually took less money to get there. As for Ryu, while I would have paid him, he's essentially Rich Hill a few years younger with the same injury risk. The only difference is that Ryu is (maybe) starting the season healthy and Rich Hill only cost $3m. I can see why the front office may have been worried about paying a guy $80m and risking getting 100-200 IP in return.

Bailey was better than Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez last year both by raw ERA and in his peripherals. He's a solid pitcher and could easily have a season that could classify him as a number 3 while he'll be our number 4 when Pineda is back. Believe it or not, you can't stack a rotation 1-5 with guys like Berrios and Odorizzi.

Just looking at his game logs, there's a pretty interesting trend that you notice. I remember watching his start against Cleveland on September 14 in particular. When he's putting up bad walk numbers, he's racking up his strikeouts. That Cleveland game I remember him lulling Cleveland to sleep by walking 3 guys in the first inning and then basically surprising them with strikes and striking out the side to finish the inning. Every outing he had but one where he had 10+ K/9 he also had a BB/9 of at least 3.60 which is going to get him in trouble.

I've got two takes on Lewis Thorpe after following him through the minors and watching him in the majors last season. 1. He needs to drop his BB/9 by about 1 in order to be a serviceable pitcher. He had a couple times last year where he was just walking the house and it seemed to come out of nowhere. 2. He did get unlucky last year according to his 3.47 FIP and 6.18 ERA, mostly because of a ridiculous .438 BABIP. While those indicators suggest he could have had a nice year, I don't know that I trust it. With his statcast numbers laid out above and his 91.5 mph fastball, his K rate seems to be the outlier. He could easily be a guy whose value absolutely tanks when he gets full exposure to the league, especially the righty heavy Central teams. He may be an intriguing arm to include in a trade for another higher end pitcher if a team values him currently. I don't know that he's the kind of arm that winds up anchoring another team's rotation that we regret for years.

I think you could argue that I could have called him an improvement candidate instead of rebound candidate. In terms of WAR, he put up similar marks last year in about 100 fewer ABs. My main argument that we could see more from Marwin in 2020 is based around him hopefully not getting off to that absolutely terrible start that weighed his season down, as well as hopefully avoiding those injuries that limited his plate appearances and likely overall production. He finished the season on an incredible note after the first month.

Marwin Gonzalez was an absolute God send in 2019 for the Minnesota Twins. The front office locked up the utility man on February 25th to a 2 year $21 million contract. His ability to play all over the diamond was priceless as it turned out, as we saw him start the year at 3B to fill in for an injured Sano. We saw him go on to fill in all over the field as we saw injuries from C.J. Cron, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, as well as plenty others. Marwin's value goes beyond the statistics. The Twins would have been lost without him in 2019, who despite the depth and versatility within the organization, found themselves relying on guys like Ronald Torreyes down the stretch as the injuries piled up. Despite the value Marwin Gonzalez provided in 2019, I think there's reason to believe that his 2020 could prove to be even more valuable. As previously mentioned, Gonzalez was signed on February 25th, two days after the Twins began their spring training games. The slow progression of the free agent market caused him to wait around on a longer term contract that would never come. The Twins being ever opportunistic, took advantage of the market and signed Gonzalez to a team friendly deal. Gonzalez had waited long enough. He reported right away, but still had to ramp up before being game ready. When he finally did finish playing catchup, he managed a line of .115/.179/.397 by the end of the spring. He had struck out in 13 of his 26 at bats. We hear all the time about the importance of the spring training routine for pitching, but why wouldn't the same be true for hitting? Gonzalez had a triple slash of .167/.244/.256 through the first month of the season, good for a 33 wRC+. He struck out about 24% of the time. His offseason was clearly out of the ordinary for him to that point in his career, and his spring training was a rushed and shortened experience that I would argue carried into the season. 2020 is an opportunity for Marwin to settle in and have a normal spring training again, hopefully leading to a more consistent start to the season. At just 30 years old, Marwin shouldn't be on the decline quite yet. His 93 wRC+ however was his worst since 2016, and well below the benchmark he had set for himself on average over the last 5 years. When looking at why this may have been, I saw that Marwin had an IL stint from 6/19-6/29 for a hamstring injury. This itself is an injury that's known to linger for what can be weeks. I was searching however for the IL stint for the oblique injury I remembered Marwin having, but it doesn't exist. He was scratched on September 24th as a precautionary measure for an oblique injury having played in 6 of the last 8 games. However, he didn't play a single game from August 28th-September 15th for the same oblique injury. He was likely playing through this oblique strain (those are not fun) for weeks. Marwin's 2019 was far from a lost season. He was worth 1.4 wins according to fangraphs measures and filled in admirably at just about every position. He's likely to be the same super utility man in 2020 as well, as the Twins are returning a solid lineup only currently missing a full time corner infielder. While he will be another year older, Marwin Gonzalez stands to benefit from the normal spring training routine this year unlike in 2019. Not only might this get him more prepared to perform come the regular season, it may even mean he will be in better shape to avoid the soft tissue injuries that plagued him in 2020. Despite the rough start mentioned above, from April 29th forward Marwin seemed to get back into the swing of things to the tune of a .283/.337/.446 triple slash. Penciling that into the bottom 1/3 of our lineup is simply ridiculous, and I believe that in 2020 we will see Marwin Gonzalez thrive in a similar way for much of the season.

I don't think Bailey is the next Martin Perez in the sense of starting the year on fire and then being downright not deserving of taking the mound every 5th day. Bailey seems to have a higher floor and showed last year that he can at least be somewhat effective across an entire season. Bailey seems to be more of a Gibson replacement than Perez replacement. Pretty similar career numbers and I think he could be a good number 4 pitcher.

Homer Bailey is essentially a Kylre Gibson replacement which is just fine. If you have an issue with Rich Hill however, I'd love to hear why. He wont take up a 40 man spot and we got him for $3m. He could be a huge boost down the stretch or contribute nothing and we forget about it. He isn't being sign to be relied on as seen by the lofty incentives. I also think more moves are coming via trade. We'll have to wait and see.

I'm still thinking this can be a success without Donaldson, though my confidence in that coming to fruition is pretty low. Such a bummer.

I'm at a point where I know price isn't the answer. That doesn't mean I wouldn't take him. I just don't know that I'd want us to take on that whole contract and shoestring ourselves. We missed our shot at a somewhat sensible contract via free agency. Everyone says we could get Price for free if we pay his whole contract. Why not send some mid tier prospects over though if this is the route we want to take? Suppress his money owed and have some flexibility to make more moves as needed. We're going to have yet another 40 man crunch next offseason anyways. Hes probably a 3rd starter when healthy at this point. Hes a good pitcher, but do we want to hear about the payroll crunch for years because we let the Red Sox unload that albatross of a contract onto us? That's how they got into their tight situation.

Donaldson would actually likely improve the pitching just because of his defense at 3B. The left side of our infield has been terrible in terms of defense, and Donaldson would improve it bigtime. If his defense deteriorates so badly that he can't stick at 3B (Likely years down the line considering how great he still was last year) we'll have a DH opening in a year or two. Cruz won't be around forever. Donaldson would also be added to our list of core players that are locked up to build around for the next 3-5 years like Polanco and Kepler. He has a great mind for hitting and would be a great mentor for younger guys debuting in the coming years. The only complaints you can really have for Donaldson is his age which I think is overblown and his injuries which he's a year removed from.

I don't know that Jimmy Nelson will be able to command a major league spot given the nature of his injury, time off over the last few years, and only having one year of success before getting injured. Also, I think whether we can afford him a 40 man spot depends on the rest of the moves we make. I believe it stands at 38 right now and while I do think they'll make some adds via trade, the price may include a 40 man guy or two that could open another spot.

Palacios is being converted to a pitcher because his hitting development has gone so poorly. Definitely a great trade that I decided not to include in my write up. I think it would be a great move to offer Odorizzi an extension depending on the remaining moves we make this offseason. I'm also a big Dakota Chalmers fan, although I would like to see him make a move to the bullpen to streamline him to the majors. I think his high amount of walks would be better hidden that way and his stuff would play up bigtime.

I think the rookies from last year are all better than Gibson and Perez. That's a low bar to clear though, and not the goal the front office should have going into the year.

I don't disagree with the belief that we have exciting young arms that could fill in in the rotation. I also think it's fair to hold that belief, as well as the belief that if we trust 2+ rookies to start 40% of our games the year after winning 101 games, that's just a blatant failure. We just watched the Indians do this last season with their outfield to try to save money. They wound up digging themselves a hole and having to fix it at the deadline and it was too late. We have a young core of players coming off career years. We don't have anything resembling a high payroll. We've watched this team lose for years, and we've finally watched one win. I'd be excited to start those young guys if this were 2015, but this team had very few issues last season to address, most of which were the starting rotation. It was a fantastic year for free agent pitching and we had money to spend. There's not really a way to spin a 101 win team handing the keys to rotation spots to a combination of 3 guys who totaled under 100 innings in their entire major league careers. Basically my argument is that if you won't increase payroll to improve this team now, you're not going to. Period. If you're decreasing payroll after winning 101 games and trusting Dobnak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer to play significant roles on this team, you're gambling away the season, division title, and good faith of the fanbase.

I think trading our starting 3B when we're already in need of a corner infielder and starting left fielder would put us back significantly as a whole regardless of who we get.

As things stand right now, Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Thorpe are all in the rotation on opening day. It's surely too early to panic, but I'd put the odds at well over 50/50 that two of these guys are in the rotation to start the year. I think they can make due with that for 39 games until Pineda is back, they've always been open to one rookie in the #5 spot. Starting the year with all 3 of these guys though would be just asking to lose the division. That would be an F- offseason if that happens in my opinion regardless of anything they do from now until opening day.

Unfortunately all of the decent free agent options are gone. We're at the point where we need to sign anybody just to fill innings. At least bring in some guys to compete with the rookies.

The beginning of the offseason was a time of hope and optimism. The Twins were coming off of 101 wins with their most prominent need being starting pitching in one of the most pitching rich offseasons in recent memory. Nobody expected a contract luring Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg to Minnesota, but there was hope that we could acquire a starting pitcher that would at least push Odorizzi in the rotation down one spot, some form of an ace to pair with Berrios. As I write this on December 27th, this kind of pitcher has not yet been acquired, nor has any starting pitching that was not in the organization in 2019. While the fan base's frustrations boil over, I wanted shine some light on a player that was a true star of the 2019 Minnesota Twins. I'm not much of a "best shape of his life" truther, but rumblings of the potential for Odorizzi's impressive 2019 began in the offseason when reports surfaced that he had changed his workout routine to improve his ailing back. This report was expanded upon later throughout the season by Dan Hayes of the Athletic. Odorizzi showed a lot of dedication, and while this report may sound ridiculous, the results have spoken for themselves. Odorizzi finished the season with a 10.08 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 3.51 ERA and 3.36 FIP. Those numbers may have been even better had he not suffered from a blister mid season that really inflated his numbers in a short period of time, capped off by the famous 5 IP 9 ER against the Yankees on 7/24. After returning from his blister, he righted the ship to the tune of 2.89 ERA to finish the season. I think Odorizzi's performance in game 3 in 2019 goes unnoticed since we lost. In an elimination game, Odorizzi threw 5 innings of 2 run ball, striking out 5 and walking none against a patient Yankee lineup that dismantled just about every other pitcher they'd seen to that point. The Twins were on the ropes, and Odorizzi was nails. He exited with the game well within reach despite a Twins lineup that had squandered several opportunities to that point. Odorizzi showed that he was up to the task of facing any lineup in the major leagues not just in the regular season where he dominated, but in a postseason setting with the season on the line. In a perfect world, the Twins do still acquire a number 1 starter, although it looks increasingly likely that this will have to come via trade with top options leaving the free agency market. I still advocate for the front office to not only look for this addition, but to also add to the back end to not be as dependent on last year's rookies in the regular season. However, we as fans often discount the value of the numbers our teams players put up because of how we watch them all year and see the bad just as much as the good. Let's say the Twins signed an unnamed pitcher to a 1 year deal who put up Odorizzi's numbers in 2019. How excited would you be to slot this player between Berrios and Pineda in 2020? In my opinion, those numbers aren't a bonafide ace, but you feel great sending that pitcher out every fifth day, including the playoffs. The doom and gloom among fans that has crept in has only grown while watching the teams around us add players, and I think it's gotten to a good point in the offseason to appreciate the players we already have suiting up for our AL Central champions in 2020. Teams like the White Sox are no doubt improving their team, but the bench mark set by the Twins impressive roster of returning players will be hard to reach.

As December winds down, the Minnesota Twins have two established starters in their rotation penciled in for opening day. As Michael Pineda serves his remaining 39 games of suspension, the Twins will look to fill those innings with more than the 2019 group of rookies consisting of Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe. I am still a believer in the front offices ability to swing a trade that brings in the prized arm that we've been hoping for all winter. However, I am 100% certain that we will see them take some dart throws on a pitcher or two to fill in or cover the back end of the rotation. In 2019 we saw them sign Martin Perez who despite his struggles to finish the season, set the world on fire to begin the year. A similar reclamation project I would love to see the Twins make for 2020 is Jimmy Nelson from the Brewers. Jimmy Nelson had a career year in 2017, striking out 10.21/9 and only walking 2.46. While it admittedly wasn't anything like the year of the juiced ball in 2019, his .82 HR/9 was absurd. He finished with a 3.49 ERA and 3.05 FIP and an fWAR of 4.8 in 175.1 innings. It was his third consecutive year of 175+ innings pitched. So why haven't we heard Jimmy Nelson's name in 2018 and 2019? Jimmy Nelson was running the bases on September 8th 2017 when he had to dive back into first base, tearing his rotator cuff and labrum in his shoulder. Just like that the Brewers lost their ace for the remainder of the season. It's a devastating injury for a pitcher, and wound up costing Nelson his 2018 and most of 2019 season as well. His return to the mound didn't inspire much confidence in the Brewers for the price he was due to earn, as they non tendered him, leaving him as a free agent. Nelson's 2019 was ugly to say the least. He walked 6.95/9, allowed a crippling 1.64 HR/9, leading to a 6.95 ERA. It was a lost season for Nelson. I can't lie and say I have confidence in Nelson's 2020 bounceback looking at those numbers, but I do think he would be worth the low risk gamble. A high walk rate isn't completely unexpected following an almost two year layoff. While his average FB velocity was down almost 2 MPH from his last full season, his 10.64 K/9 suggests the talent is still in there somewhere, as visually represented by a rehab start from earlier in 2019. Jimmy Nelson is still only 30 years old and should still have plenty in the tank if that shoulder is healthy, which it appeared to be in 2019 despite poor results. He would likely be healthy for the start of spring training and may benefit from his first regular preseason routine since 2017. The Twins coaching staff would likely afford him plenty of rest as we've seen in the past, and may be able to offer some adjustments as he continues to build back into a reliable pitcher. To expect another 2017 Jimmy Nelson is a mistake, but the Twins need innings, especially to begin the season. Whether you like where the rotation is at or not, it's time to consider these options at the back end. In terms of pitchers in Nelson's tier of lottery picks that would cost little and have little expectation, Nelson is the most exciting option. It would tell me our front office has identified potential in a pitcher who was previously very successful but whose numbers have suffered due to injury. Announcement of a Jimmy Nelson signing wouldn't do much to silence the fears of fans, but I would love to let him compete for a spot at the back end of our rotation in 2020. What do you think?

The Twins will definitely regress in 2020 naturally, even if it's just the baseball changing. Most teams will do so when they win 101 games. Don't think people are aware of how much regression some of the White Sox are due for in 2020 as well though. Tim Anderson won the batting title with a .399! BABIP. Yoan Moncada hit .315 with a .406 BABIP. Both have relatively high career BABIPs but last year they bordered on historic. While I have no way of understanding fluctuations in BABIP, I'd bet on them significantly decreasing. Jose Abreu is another year older, and so is Edwin Encarnacion. Both could be at risk of injury or just completely falling off, not every veteran is as special as Nelson Cruz. I guess my point is that most teams are worried about regression. If they aren't the phrase "ignorance is bliss" comes to mind. I feel good about the Twins natural regression starting at 101 wins as opposed to the White Sox natural regression from 72 wins, even with their additions.

I strongly disagree that Ray's downside is a solid rotation piece. He's one of the most high ceiling low floor pitchers in baseball not even year to year but day to day. The DBacks reportedly had a ridiculous asking price for Ray at the deadline last season despite him being less valuable in terms of WAR than Michael Pineda for example who threw 30 less innings. Trading 2 years of Eddie for one year of Ray would be dicey for me even with replacements on deck for LF. He'd have been our 4th most valuable pitcher last year behind Kyle Gibson. Maybe I'd do it Ray for Eddie straight up, but adding prospects seems like an overpay for a guy who very well could end up being about as valuable as a guy like Keuchel who we could just pay money for. The front office and pitching staff would have to take interest in being able to take Ray to the next level for me to be excited to give up much for him.