Cody Pirkl

I'm sorry to hear that, Mike. I think we're all in uncharted waters here and are being forced learn as we go and do the best we can. I appreciate your interacting with all of our content and hope that TwinsDaily can give you some kind of respite in these crazy times. Wishing you the best.

2019 was an incredible year for the Minnesota Twins, especially rookie manager Rocco Baldelli. Rocco brought in a player centered, calming environment and took home AL Manager of the Year honors. With the 2020 season in jeopardy of being severely shortened however, he has an opportunity to show off that he’s an even better manager than he gets credit for.Rocco Baldelli’s management style aims to refrain from pushing player’s physical limits and keeping them fresh. Rocco regularly gave starters the day off and made the most of the depth the roster had accumulated. Unavoidable injuries popped up down the stretch, but for the most part, the Twins were able to avoid late-season production declining en route to the AL Central title. Everything seemed to work out perfectly, until the ALDS that is. The offense being a nonfactor was a likely result of the injuries sustained toward the end of the year. It was the pitching usage however where Baldelli’s mettle was tested as a rookie manager. When it came to big-time situations in game 1, Rocco Baldelli trusted pitchers like Zack Littell and Cody Stashak, seemingly in an attempt to preserve pitchers like Trevor May and Taylor Rogers for key situations. Those situations would never present themselves after game 1 unfortunately. The game got away from the Twins, and May and Rogers wouldn’t throw a meaningful pitch in the series. I don’t say this to bring up bad memories, but rather to point out the one true beef you may have with Rocco Baldelli as a manager is that at times he can be too conservative. A 162 game season is the perfect season length to choose spots to save your bullets, and Baldelli’s management style in year 1 was perfect for it. As Ted Schwerlzer pointed out earlier this week, an 81 game schedule severely drops the Twins playoff chances. The Twins are built to outlast the rest of baseball, but that depth just isn’t as impactful when the longevity needed from your stars is reduced. Every impact player that’s kept off the field in favor of a utility or backup player becomes less about keeping them healthy months from now, and more about the chances of winning that game being reduced. Not to mention that each game is that much more meaningful. I think that Baldelli’s first taste of the postseason provided him with plenty of learning opportunities. His game management in the regular season was all you could ask for, but it takes more than the average baseball fan believes to flip that switch on your entire process that’s brought you success. While a season cut in half is less dire than a best of 5 against the Yankees, it would still require a shift in the philosophy that Baldelli used in 2019. That being said, all of baseball will be making that shift, and I think Baldelli’s lessons learned in the ALDS will prepare him to be a bit more aggressive in a shortened schedule. What do you think? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

He's a guy who had a successful minor league career at every stop and came up and had continued success by using the same strategy. That strategy happens to look just like Stroman's even if it was in a very limited sample. His way of getting outs is pretty sustainable by limiting homers and getting ground balls. I think it's valuable to recognize that in context with how Stroman's made a career for himself because it shows that it may not be fair to predict near 5 ERAs for Dobnak going forward. There's a path to success for him and his pitching style is all I wanted to point out.

In 2019, Marcus Stroman had a career year with a 3.22 ERA and 3.72 FIP. He was traded at the deadline to the Mets in frustrating fashion, as the Twins felt they could have matched the return for the Blue Jays. The rest is history, as the Twins starting pitching depth fell apart down the stretch. In 2020 however, the Twins not only have the depth to fill the shoes of a Marcus Stroman, they may have a version of him themselves.Randy Dobnak burst onto the scene in 2019 riding a heavy sinker/slider combo to success in his short debut. I’m just going to say it, Randy Dobnak can be a Marcus Stroman-esque pitcher for the Minnesota Twins. Do you think that’s ridiculous? What’s ridiculous is how similar the two pitcher’s profiles are. Check out the pair’s pitch usage and performance: Dobnak: Download attachment: Dobnak Pitch Mix.PNG Stroman: Download attachment: Stroman Pitches.PNG Dobnak considers his breaking ball to be a slider despite Statcast categorizing it as a curve. Taking this into consideration, the main difference is Stroman’s consistent use of a cut fastball. Dobnak instead relies on his changeup and four seamer a bit more whereas Stroman rarely uses these pitches. Both pitchers' bread and butter however is their sinker/slider combo. Both use their sinkers around 36% of the time and rely on their breakers for whiffs. Now let’s look at batted-ball profile: Dobnak: Download attachment: Dobnak Batted Ball Profile.PNG Stroman: Download attachment: Stroman Batted Ball Profile.PNG The parity in GB and FB rates are what I find most important. Both pitchers rely on the ground ball in the age of rising strikeouts. Stroman struck out 20.5% of hitters in 2019, while Dobnak struck out 19.5%. Stroman had a walk rate of 7.5%, while Dobnak only walked 4.2% of his opponents. Both pitchers are also exceptional at avoiding barrels, which are determined in part by achieving a launch angle between 26-30 degrees. Both pitchers' sinkers produced launch angles in the negatives in 2019. Dobnak’s 0.32 HR/9 is unrepeatable, but why can’t it plateau around the 0.88 HR/9 Stroman put up in 2019 with such a similar profile? We saw it at last year’s trade deadline, many people believed Marcus Stroman to be a bona fide ace. The fact of the matter is, 2019 was Stroman’s most valuable season according to Fangraphs WAR and it would have ranked behind Berrios and Odorizzi’s 2019. Comparing Stroman and Dobnak may partially be an argument that Stroman is a bit overrated, but it’s hard to ignore just how much the two pitchers overlap with their strategy and results on the mound in 2019. The elephant in the room is obvious. Randy Dobnak has just 28.1 innings under his belt at the major league level. He’s also taken an unlikely path to the majors and was never considered the prospect that Stroman was when he was taken 22nd overall in 2012. His 1.59 ERA in 2019 is not going to happen again. Even his 2.90 FIP seems ambitious. The skills Dobnak showed are fairly sticky historically however. While he certainly overperformed, things like walk rate and groundball rate don’t typically just disappear from year to year, especially since they’re both skills he showed all through the minors. Randy Dobnak is due for regression in 2020, but his performance in 2019 leaves a lot of room for it while still being an impressive pitcher. He gets ground balls at an elite rate and has a slider that induces a healthy amount of swings and misses just as Marcus Stroman does. In fact, you could take the pair's underlying peripherals and they would be nearly indistinguishable. Because of that, I don’t think it’s crazy to say that Randy Dobnak could put together a season that matches up closely with Marcus Stroman. What do you think? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

The thing about Arraez regressing to around .300 is that it may put him below an .800 OPS which just isn't that special of a player when paired with the defense he put up last season. It's not like he'd lose his job or anything with those kinds of numbers, but a future of Royce Lewis at SS and Polanco shifting to 2B becomes very real.

That's actually a really great question. I'm a firm believer that even for Chacín, his performance this time of year isn't necessarily indicative of how he'll pitch in the regular season. Unfortunately for him, he's on a non guaranteed deal and the Twins have so many options that they can boil their decision down to performance. I like Dobnak better not because of spring performances, but because of how each of their 2019s went.

Spring training is a time for players to get back into the swing of things before the games that actually mean something begin. We’re a little over the halfway point and most of the regulars have gotten at least some work in. If you’re looking at the performance of a particular player or the team as a whole and thinking “this whole thing is coming crashing down”, you’re doing it wrong. Here are a few things beyond performance that are actually meaningful in spring training.Health: Pretty much the most important part of spring training. Players need time to ramp up before the 162 game season begins. In just the last week, we’ve seen Jorge Polanco and Marwin Gonzalez make their spring debuts after offseason surgery. It was great that both came back and had two hits in their spring debuts, but it’s more meaningful that they’re on track to play in the games that matter in a few weeks. While Byron Buxton is an important piece, it should be encouraging that he’s the only regular still sidelined and that all reports say he’s progressing well. The health so far in camp is a great sign (knock on wood) whether we’re winning or losing games. Velocity: A lot of pitchers show up to camp working on something or just trying to get their arms right for the season. However, velocity is something to keep an eye on. If a pitcher shows up to camp striking out the world, a boost in velocity might signal that he made a change to their offseason routine and could foreshadow a breakout. Check out Trevor May so far. In 2019, May was averaging 94 or so for the first few months. His effectiveness correlated with his steady rise in fastball velocity as the year went on, which could mean we see a fire breathing dragon right off the bat in 2020. Conversely, if a pitcher gets lit up in spring, who cares right? That is unless they’re missing a few ticks on the fastball. Losing velocity in some cases could be a sign that something’s wrong, and for most pitchers, a few MPH makes a huge difference in their effectiveness. For as worried as some are about Kenta Maeda’s first two starts, the fact that he sat 91-92 should tell you that he’s likely just working the rust out, no need to overreact. Change in Style/Approach Lots of players spend all winter working on adjustments and use spring training as a test run. If you hear a news piece about an adjustment a player is making, it should raise an eyebrow. This winter we’ve already heard that Jose Berrios is working on the shape of his curveball to tunnel it better with the rest of his pitches and make it more deceptive. Early results are looking good... Berrios has been dominant with his change thus far, but in some cases it takes a bit longer to click. Eddie Rosario reportedly wants to see more pitches and become a bit more selective in 2020. In the few televised games I’ve seen, Eddie struck out in a few ABs while laying off some pitchers pitches, something I don’t know that I’ve ever seen before. It’s a huge change for him, and the process this time of year carries much more weight than the resulting strikeout. Other changes in style/approach I’ve seen are Randy Dobnak talking about working on the depth of his slider and Marwin Gonzalez appearing to have a new timing mechanism in his swing. If Dobnak is throwing that pitch for fewer strikes or Gonzalez takes a few swings where he looks lost, don’t be shocked. The Minnesota Twins have a roster full of players whose larger sample size of 2019 should outweigh any stats they put up while they’re playing in between golf sessions down in Florida for these few weeks. In regard to spring training, I always say that the encouraging signs are more indicative than the discouraging ones since adjustments are always being made this time of year. Sit back and enjoy baseball being in your life again, the season is only a few weeks away. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

He rated better defensively than Adrianza at every position they both played. He's been a better offensive player than Adrianza every year of his career other than last year. He also led the team in slugging percentage in high leverage situations. I still don't understand this message everybody wants to send. Rich Hill chose to sign here with a player that cost him a World Series. Kenta Maeda was happy to be coming here even though Marwin cheated his way to a World Series MVP against him. The players can put it behind them, so why can't the fans? Would you be happy if we cut Marwin and ate $10.5m so the Indians could sign him for the league minimum and use the player we're paying to to try and dethrone the Twins? I only see downside if that's the route we take.

They just cleared out their training staff over the winter actually.

Defensive value goes beyond range, which is why he outperformed all of them last season. We have the depth to replace him internally to some extent, but the front office isn't going to pay for him not to play here. You said it yourself, those are expensive shoes.

Hes typically a slightly above average hitter which is more than we can say about Adrianza or Astudillo and he has much better defensive metrics at any positions that any of Cave, Adrianza and Astudillo play (other than catcher)

It should be noted that while Ehire is versatile, the best DRS he put up at any position is 0. 2019 was also his first year in the big leagues putting up a wRC+ over 85. If I had a choice between the two to resign next offseason I'd say Ehire, but that's only because of the price difference for utility players.

Marwin Gonzalez made mistakes in 2017, as many Astros players did. Fans are rightfully angry with his actions that led to a career season at the plate. While some fans have made it known that they’d like to have seen the last of Marwin in Minnesota, that move would be a mistake. His career year may have been a mirage, but Marwin Gonzalez has a lot to offer this Twins team.Some uneasiness with Marwin Gonzalez lies in his contract. Some believe that the 2 year $21m the Twins gave Marwin were ill-gotten gains. He was coming off a season where he was worth 1.5 fWAR. His offense was slightly above average as he put up a triple slash of .247/.324/.409, good for a 103 wRC+. A far cry from his career year in 2017 in which he was 44% above league average. Fangraphs calculated the cost per WAR on the 2018 free agent market. At $6.8m per win, Marwin does look like a slight overpay just by looking at his numbers. However, a lot of Marwin’s value lies in the role he plays. The Twins brought him in without planning on giving him a starting job on opening day before Sano’s injury. They waited out free agency and snagged the best super utility player in baseball, a value that goes beyond numbers. If the Twins were paying Marwin for his 2017, that 4.0 fWAR would have been compensated much more handsomely. He would have had a starting spot from the day he was signed if the Twins believed he was that 2017 player. The fact of the matter is, the market identified Marwin’s 2017 as an outlier. The Twins weren’t fooled into offering this contract. In terms of performance, Marwin’s versatility is his main draw, as previously mentioned. Sano’s injury to begin the year made use of Marwin’s flexibility as he immediately slotted to fill in at third base. In addition, he played some first base in C.J. Cron’s absence, as well as the corner outfield spots, periodically spelling Rosario and Kepler as nagging injuries piled up. The nice thing about Marwin is that even with all of the spots he plays, he’s not just a body manning a position. At 1B he’s worth -2 defensive runs saved, at 3B he’s worth 4 DRS, and he’s a very strong outfielder with 7 DRS. It was a down year for Marwin on offense in 2019 with a 93 wRC+. He suffered through a miserable start to the season with a 33 wRC+ in March and April. He’s traditionally a slow starter with a career wRC+ of 85 over the first month of the season. He also was late to spring training in 2019 due to the late signing which can throw off a player’s preparation for the season. Marwin also had a 66 wRC+ in September which helped weigh down his offensive stats. To end the year, he was recovering from an oblique injury and was likely rushed back to fill in for the several other Twins injuries. He had a triple slash of .264/.322/.414, good for a 93 wRC+ and 1.4 fWAR. That’s an admirable line for a 10th man on a roster, but normal routine and good health may lead to improvement for Marwin in 2020. It was also an odd year for Marwin in the sense that he actually made improvements to his game. He had a career best hard hit %, average exit velocity, and highest launch angle, all better than his career year in 2017 where he allegedly knew which pitches were coming. Despite all of this, he put up his worst offensive numbers since 2016. If he can repeat these trends, I’d expect him to wind up with some much better looking offensive numbers to pair with the value he provides on defense. You don’t have to buy his jersey, but Marwin Gonzalez is still going to play a big role for the Twins in 2020. His apology may not be enough for some fans, but there has yet to be any proof of it being an issue in the clubhouse which now includes two players directly victimized by the actions of the 2017 Astros. Even in a down year in 2019, he was valuable beyond measure for the Twins. He’s poised to add more value to this talented roster with even a slight rebound. While Marwin Gonzalez will always be linked to 2017, don’t let his past keep you from recognizing his contributions in the present. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

MadBum was holding onto Oracle Park for dear life. That might be the number one pitcher's park in all of baseball, and MadBum had a 2.93 ERA at home. On the road? 5.29 ERA. Maeda had some favorable home/road splits as well, but he at least matches up for the Twins a bit better because of his effectiveness on righties which is most of the American league. I'd guess MadBum sees some tough effects of pitching in SF 1-2 times per year as opposed to 12-15.

I mistook his Fangraphs RF DRS for his CF haha. He's fallen off more than I thought.

It's also interesting to consider how other teams are building bullpens, look at Cleveland for example. Two of their top relievers are Adam Cimber and Oliver Perez. Both get absolutely demolished by opposite handed hitters, and having two relievers like this could easily lose Cleveland some tight games since both were used in one or two out situations last year. I said it back in December, Falvey and Levine have done a great job of getting "out getters" in this bullpen instead of spending money and roster spots on specialists.

From a sheer numbers standpoint, Maeda is a much better matchup if you're looking at facing off against the Yankees or Astros. His right handed splits would probably fare better than Ryu's style of left handed pitching. It's a small sample size but of 8 Yankee hitters Ryu has faced in his career, 4 of them have an OPS over 1000 against him. As for Graterol, there's so much depth in the bullpen that it's an easy move to make to cash in on the height of his value for starting pitching which is a bigger need. Raley never really had any path to playing time. His role was probably always based around being traded.

Don't forget that .535 OPS against righties for Maeda. That should translate to the Central and AL in general super well. I see red when people say we should have signed Bumgarner instead of trading for Maeda, so thank you very much for this Cooper.

Pillar still had more DRS in center than Kepler did. Kepler is a fantastic right fielder and about average centerfielder. To keep his defense in RF and slot Pillar into CF with 5 DRS and 2 outs above average makes for a better defense even with Pillar's aging drop. Pillar is declining but he was still a bit better than league average in CF even in the enormous outfield of Oracle park. My argument is basically that if you move Kepler over and slot Cave or Wade into RF, you downgrade two positions on defense instead of just one. We've got two open 40 man spots and not much of an urgent need to fill with that 26th roster spot. It wouldn't have been the end of the world to sign another right handed outfielder that can play a decent center field.

Reading through the comments I'm seeing people discredit Almora's ability to play CF. We can move Kepler from RF to CF if Buxton gets injured, but then he drops from a well above average defensive player to about average. Cave cannot play center, that's been proven time and time again. It's easier to bring in a specialist to play center if Buxton were to get hurt. That's why I wish we would have just signed Kevin Pillar instead of discussing trading for a backup center fielder. That being said, of Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer, I think Smeltzer is the only one I'd consider giving up for Almora, and I definitely wouldn't add Littell or Stashak to that deal.