Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Matt Braun

Twins Daily Contributor
  • Posts

    1,246
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

Reputation Activity

  1. Love
    Matt Braun got a reaction from nclahammer for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (Mid-Season) + Writeups   
    System overview:
    A lot changes in half a season. Royce Lewis finally departed the prospect list nearly 6 (six!) years after the team drafted him first overall in 2017. Edouard Julien and Louie Varland also lost their prospect status, weakening the high-end of the list despite a recent influx of incredible talent. Speaking of which…
    Walker Jenkins! The Twins actually did it; they eschewed their conservative desires and simply took the best player available at number 5: a sweet-swinging high-schooler who drew incredible reviews for his makeup. You could probably write a book with the superlative ink spilled about Jenkins over the past few days, but there's a good reason for that: he’s a stud. He immediately gives the team a fascinating, dynamic top three of Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and himself. He hasn’t even been signed yet, so let’s not get carried away, but it’s certainly an exciting time for the Twins system.
    Which, I think, is the strongest it’s been in a few years. The team is now undeniably at the heart of the pitching movement, churning out and improving arms at a breakneck pace, making their pitching prospects that much more exciting. There are about four or five legitimately impressive arms in the system drafted in 2022, and with about 60 pitchers taken in this draft, a few more are certainly on their way. It’s madness. But it’s a good kind of madness. 
    I’ve done something different with this list. As you’ll see, batters and pitchers are separated—something I’ve always felt should be done given the differences between the two. This is especially true these days, as any arm with one or two interesting characteristics is millimeters away from breaking out; hitters don’t currently enjoy such an advantage. Here’s the list:
    Hitters:
    Brooks Lee, 22, 5’11” / 205 - SS Now that Royce Lewis is finally no longer a prospect (for the first time since 2017!), Brooks Lee takes over as the best prospect in Minnesota’s system. There’s a lot to like in his tools; his defense isn’t consistently excellent at shortstop—he’s missing the kind of raw athletic force that, say, Carlos Correa possesses—but he’s nimble enough to make plenty of wow plays and could stick at the position in the majors. If not, he’ll be fine at third or second. The Twins appear dead-set on getting him reps here, as he’s barely started anywhere else in 2023. 
    Offensively, he’ll likely hit, but his bat isn’t bulletproof. He doesn’t own any one overwhelming attribute, but he does most things pretty well and should never embarrass himself with poor swing decisions. Overall, he looks a lot like Marcus Semien with a little less pop—but I will warn that the lack of consistent game power is a concern. Really, though, most knocks feel like extreme nit-picking for a 22-year-old holding his own at AA in his first full year in organized ball. He’ll be fine and should join the Twins sometime in 2024.
    Emmanuel Rodriguez, 20, 5’10” / 210 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez is a lesson in two parts: one, that monthly stat-worrying over prospects is often foolish; and slack should be handed to players returning from major surgery. Rodriguez spent April and May striking out at Gallo-ian rates before deflating his whiffs to palatable levels; he’s punched out at a 25.5% clip since June started. And while that cutoff is as arbitrary as any, I think it’s clear that Rodriguez is far more comfortable at the plate these days than when the season started.
    He still has laughable power as his swing-as-hard-as-humanly-possible approach yields monster homers and titanic bullets shot all around the field, offering welts to fielders who stand in their way. The whiffs will probably always be present, though, as he has a habit of running deep counts. If he continues to evolve, he could be the toolsy stud center fielder of the future for the Twins. The bust potential is high, though.
    Walker Jenkins, 18, 6’3” / 190 - OF Surprise! After blowing smoke around Jacob Gonzalez for a few months, the Twins took the sane route and drafted an excellent high school prospect. I’ll repeat the common refrain here; Jenkins could have gone 1st in any normal draft, and the Twins are deeply fortunate to have such an impact talent in their farm system.
    It’s a little silly trying to rank recently-selected players alongside pros with hundreds of at-bats under their belt, but you have to put the guy somewhere, and I thought right behind Emmanuel Rodriguez was the best choice. I don’t really have a good reason for this choice; he can move up quickly with early success.
    -------------------------
    Matt Wallner, 25, 6’5” / 220 - OF The man who just cannot find a roster spot. Matt Wallner is the antithesis of Max Kepler: he’s going to swing hard, clobber a lot of baseballs, and play bumbling, clumsy defense in right field. We’ve seen his style of play work at times, as apparent by his little MLB playing time this year, but his extreme contact deficiency will spell ugly hitting streaks, and I worry what major-league pitchers are going to do to him once they become comfortable. Still, he rakes. His max exit velocity is already elite, and it’s not impossible to imagine an Austin Riley-like metamorphosis from hulking slugger to well-rounded nuclear offensive force.
    Defensively, Wallner is going to cost the Twins runs. He may earn some back with his arm—a true bazooka that will vex greedy baserunners, or just keep them stationary in fear—but the dropoff from Kepler to Wallner will be obvious. Minnesota’s favor towards flyball pitchers, and their insistence on playing Kepler and Gallo may keep him hidden on the periphery longer than most have the stomach for.
    Tanner Schobel, 22, 5’9” / 170 - 2B/3B Tanner Schobel is something of a throwback to the 2000s Twins: a slick do-it-all infielder with above-average speed and a good chance at becoming a roughly 2 WAR player for more years than you realize. He’s even added more ISO (in a pitcher’s league!) as his extended play with Cedar Rapids has been powerful. The thump may not be a mirage; Schobel slugged .689 his sophomore season at Virginia Tech. He loads up like Eugenio Saurez, allowing the ball to travel a little further than most before the full power of his torque releases, usually in a punishing manner (to the ball).
    Defensively, Schobel has mostly split time between second and third—his two most natural positions. He could potentially play shortstop, but that position has seen a lot of Noah Miller and Jose Salas, making it difficult for Schobel to earn playing time there. Overall, Schobel fits a likeable infielder mold that many good-to-great players have thrived in.
    -------------------------
    Yasser Mercedes, 18, 6’2” / 175 - OF An expensive international signing from a few years ago, Yasser Mercedes showcased a dynamic offensive profile in 2022 before completely falling off a cliff in his first taste of stateside ball. Was he a victim of untrustworthy DSL stats? Is this a fluke? It’s far too early to tell; for now he’ll stay stagnant in my prospect list. 
    Austin Martin, 24, 6’0” / 185 - SS/OF Oh what a fall for Austin Martin. You know the story by now: his flaming college performance capitulated immediately after the Blue Jays drafted him, and now the Twins are looking to get him back in the groove. 2022 was almost a complete loss, but Martin flashed life in September, and had a respectable enough AFL to soften his fall from grace.
    Frustratingly, an injury knocked Martin out of commission until a few days ago, when he finally popped back up on the Saints’ roster. A strong showing could earn him a quick promotion, as Royce Lewis is currently on the mend well until August; José Miranda took his place but could be shuffled if his bat doesn’t turn around. Hopefully Martin finds the minimum power needed to become a quality major-league bat, because his potential is of a classic two-hole batter, slashing hits across the field while stealing at whim. 
    Luke Keaschall, 20, 6’1” / 190 - INF The Twins selected Luke Keaschall—an infielder out of Arizona State—with their second-round pick in 2023. Plenty of excellent alumnus call that college home, and Keaschall could join them soon, as he absolutely smoked PAC-12 pitching with a .353/.443/.725 slashline. We’ll understand Keaschall more as a prospect in time, so consider this ranking very loose; he could move up or down easily. 
    Noah Miller, 20, 5’11” / 190 - SS Alright, I was probably wrong about Noah Miller. I grasped tightly onto his excellent strikeout-to-walk rate in 2022, but now that has evaporated, leaving a powerless, on-base-less profile only buoyed by his excellent shortstop defense. He added a tinge of power in 2023, upping his ISO almost .030 points up to .094, but that hasn’t been enough to save his hitting, and infielders who hit like this need a legendary glove to stick around in MLB for any serious period of time. 
    Noah Cardenas, 23, 5’11” / 195 - C/1B I still cannot fathom why Noah Cardenas is not more well-received as a prospect. He’s hitting for a 129 wRC+ with the Kernels—as a catcher, mind you—after crushing A ball with similar vigor. His pop is more in doubles than homers, but he can take a walk like no one’s business, and that kind of plate control should translate well as he progresses up through the minors.
    The bugaboo: his defense. The Twins know this, and often spell time at 1st and DH (although Andrew Cossetti’s presence feeds into this decision as well). We don’t have public catching defensive metrics, but Eric Longenhagen rated him a 30-grade defender, and I’m willing to believe in his assessment. Still, the Twins were able to turn Mitch Garver into a workable defensive catcher—and Ryan Jeffers wasn’t a lock to stay at catcher either—so it’s very possible that Cardenas follows those two and blossoms into an everyday player. 
    Danny De Andrade, 19, 5’11” / 190 - SS We’re finally seeing Danny De Andrade playing in full-season ball and the results have been… whelming. He’s walked a fair amount, but the power is merely ok, and he’s probably not going to play shortstop long-term. Still, this is a 19-year-old; picking on him too much seems like an unwise decision. He should rise up this list further with time. 
    Jose Salas, 20, 6’0” / 191 - INF At this point, it’s unclear what Jose Salas does well. He’s in the middle of a dreadful repetition of A+ ball in which his slashline is so porous that I don’t even want to type it out. You don’t need to look it up; it’s bad. Normally this kind of performance would take a player completely off the list, but prospect evaluators swore he was around a 45 FV player coming into the year, and I’ll offer some slack in this regard. It won’t last long unless something changes quickly. 
    Kala’i Rosario, 21, 6’0” / 205 - OF It’s been an impressive rebound for Kala’i Rosario, who wandered the prospect desert after being selected in the 2020 draft. Once a pure power threat, Rosario has improved in each stat of his triple slash-line, giving him a mean offensive profile that Midwest pitchers haven’t figured out yet. He even sliced a few points off his strikeout rate. 
    Yet the hit tool remains shaky. There are major leaguers who can make it work with a swing-hard-and-maybe-something-good-will-happen approach, but it’s a wasteland of batters who pitchers figured out quickly; whether Rosario is any different will be seen shortly. He should see a promotion to AA soon, and his immense power could carry him to the majors. 
    -------------------------
    Andrew Cossetti, 23, 5’10” / 215 - C/1B Andrew Cossetti mashed A-ball with a hilarious .330/.462/.607 slashline before the Twins showed mercy on poor Florida State League arms, sending the menace to Cedar Rapids. His offense has cooled, but he still settled into a firmly above-average performance—especially for a catcher holding a .262 BABIP. He often spends time at 1st also, perhaps signalling Minnesota’s thoughts on his ability to stick as a backstop, but the bat may be real, and that’s enough to make Cossetti an exciting name to watch. 
    Jose Rodriguez, 18, 6’2” / 196 - OF Jose Rodriguez popped 13 homers in an impressive somehow-young-for-the-level DSL debut and is now hitting for a 93 wRC+ with the FCL Twins. Like Mercedes, the question regarding untrustworthy DSL numbers exists here, but I’ll give Rodriguez some benefit of the doubt considering his absurd youth and small sample of plate appearances at his new level. 
    Yunior Severino, 23, 6’0” / 189 - 2B/3B This is now the third season in a row that Yunior Severino has mashed the ball; his profile still scares the crap out of me. He makes his bread with power and walks, but the walks have dropped off since he reached AA, and we’re left with a high ISO/high BABIP batting line that, to me, seems unsustainable outside the Texas League. Maybe that’s unfair, but there’s also probably a reason the team has been slow to send him to AAA. 
    DaShawn Kiersey Jr., 26, 6’0” / 195 - OF Is this a toolsy outfielder finally breaking out, or an old-for-the-level batter picking on pitchers who don’t know any better? Who knows—and the truth probably lies outside my black-and-white dichotomy—but, there’s no way to say it any other way: DaShawn Kiersey Jr. is raking.
    His season under-the-hood looks largely the same as 2022, save for a nearly .040 point bump in ISO, but Kiersey Jr. has already clobbered nine homers; it took him three minor league seasons after being drafted to hit his first longball. Throw in game-altering stolen base potential, and Kiersey Jr. is a compelling late-breakout outfielder who’ll need to claw past some other uber-talented players if he ever sees the majors. He’s blistered the ball since June started, turning in a .347/.407/.579 slash with seven steals.
    Ben Ross, 22, 6’0” / 180 - INF If you want a guy who can rake across the field, Ben Ross is your guy. He’s bopped 13 homers in a notorious pitchers league, all while playing at 1st base, shortstop, 3rd base, left field, center field, and right field (he played second last year, but not this year). Whether he’s adept at all these positions or merely a warm body capable of moonlighting at them will be seen, but the profile is certainly fascinating. He could probably catch if need be. 
    Misael Urbina, 21, 5’10” / 190 - OF Misael Urbina is continuing his every-other-year pattern of not hitting. It appeared he bounced back nicely after a truly awful 2021 season, but not one number of his A+ slashline starts with a “.3” and, yeah, that’s not gonna play. The talent is still evident, but smooth sailing it has not been, and I worry that Urbina is not going to live up to the promise he showed in 2019.
    Aaron Sabato, 24, 6’2” / 230 - 1B It’s been a molasses-slow movement through the system for the 2020 1st-round selection. He hasn’t lived up to the hype he saw out of college, but—somehow—he’s dutifully earned promotions and usually turns in above-average performances after becoming acclimated to his competition. That’s not what you want from a 1st-round pick, but there’s still a very real chance Sabato can contribute to the major-league team.
    Pitchers:
    Marco Raya, 20, 6’0” / 170 - RHP The recently promoted Marco Raya represents Minnesota’s best shot at a top-of-the-rotation arm. That isn’t to say that he’s a lock to dominate—and, indeed, undervalued arms like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have proven that the best MLB pitchers aren’t always the well-known guys—but, if anyone here is a betting man, Raya would be the favored horse. He attacks batters with an ideal vertical fastball and a pair of devastating breaking balls, known to bring hitters to their knees if they swing improperly.
    Despite being over three years younger than the average competition at A+ ball, Raya smoked hitters, punching out nearly 30% of batters faced while chopping two percentage points off his walk rate from last year. It’s difficult to parse whether this was Raya just being plain better than these hitters, as the Twins capped his innings total in his starts at four, but the numbers are hard to ignore, and the team may be off-setting their conservatism with an aggressive promotion to the Wind Surge. The Texas League is known for hitting; good luck to Raya with his new competition. 
    David Festa, 23, 6’6” / 185 - RHP There’s a strong argument for David Festa as the better pitching prospect, and, in the end, Raya won by a sliver. This is no knock on Festa; the Seton Hall product followed a now well-paved road set by the Falvey Twins, as he almost immediately enjoyed and sustained a four-tick velocity bump. The strikeouts soon came. 
    With effective offerings in his sharp slider and surprisingly effective changeup (surprising only in that every pitching prospect has a “developing” cambio), Festa has impressive peripherals at AA, even if the walks have trended up with subsequent promotions. He was recently added to the Futures Game roster, and could see time with the Twins in 2024 if the current glut of 40-man options prove insufficient. 
    -------------------------
    Connor Prielipp, 22, 6’2” / 210 - LHP Almost a year after the Twins selected him, Connor Prielipp remains a mystery. He made exactly one start for the Kernels before hitting the IL, shuttled off to the grand nothingness that is the Twins’ prospect injury list, only evident through occasional tweets and whispers. The team finally ended his season, giving us 1 (one) start and no new knowledge on what Prielipp could become.
    It’s frustrating given Prielipp’s potentially dominant slider; a healthy Prielipp could easily be one of the best prospects in Minnesota’s system, but he can now only claim a combined 34 ⅔ innings between his time at Alabama and in pro ball. What will eventually become of the 22-year-old is just as unclear as when the Twins drafted him in 2022. 
    Charlee Soto, 17, 6’5” / 197 - RHP If you built a pitcher in a lab, this is what he would look like—6 foot 5 inches with a big fastball and yeah, you get the idea. Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs described his heater as sink-oriented, which does differentiate him from your typical ride/carry guy so coveted by MLB teams these days.
    Like Walker, ranking Soto is a fool’s errand. He’s even younger than your typical high schooler at 17, and I doubt we’ll understand Soto more as a prospect for at least a few years.
    -------------------------
    Simeon Woods Richardson, 22, 6’3” / 210 - RHP Disastrous. Following a minor stabilizing season at AA and AAA last year, Simeon Woods Richardson is imploding in 2023. His K-BB% is 3.7%, far far far below the ground level acceptable for even a below-average major-league arm. 
    This is nothing like the pitcher the Twins expected to receive in 2021—and he’s so far removed from his performance at any part of his minor league career that an injury is the only real explanation for his troubles. Minnesota pulled this same thing with Jordan Balazovic in 2022, allowing him to take drastic lumps while recovering from an injury, but at least Balazovic still had the Ks; Woods Richardson has nothing. With other arms clearly ahead of him in the depth chart, Woods Richardson’s path to the majors appears blocked, or at least heavily guarded.
    Jordan Balazovic, 24, 6’5” / 215 - RHP I think Jordan Balazvoic has been ranked differently in each list I’ve made, and I don’t think that’s a good thing. He has rebounded nicely from his putrid 2022 season, and parlayed a strikeout/walk oriented AAA performance into… a BABIP-aided 1.80 ERA over 10 major-league innings. No, I don’t get it either.
    There’s legitimate upside, though, with Balazovic’s killer vertical fastball/curve approach that could transform him into the new Griffin Jax. That may be a disappointment from the height of his prospect days in 2018 and 2019, but Jax is a valuable piece on the Twins; hopefully Balazovic will be as well. 
    Blayne Enlow, 24, 6’3” / 170 (doubtful, but it’s what Fangraphs says) - RHP Risen from prospect ashes like the phoenix of old, Blayne Enlow might actually be a major-league arm. After being DFA’d and left out to dry last year, Enlow remained a Twin, crushing AA while halving his walk rate and adding a few more strikeouts to the mix. The promotion to AAA came soon.
    His time with the Saints hasn’t been as fruitful, but 17 ⅓ innings is a small sample, and I’m willing to bet on a future where Enlow can find an effective role in the majors. 
    Brent Headrick, 25, 6’6” / 235 - LHP I still don’t really know what to make of Brent Headrick. He has a tremendous and a disastrous fastball, leading me to believe that he’s going to be a reliever long-term, not a starter. His height, odd arm action, and command should secure him a spot on the team in some capacity, but that fastball problem is dire, and it may not be easy to fix. Headrick gets a leg-up on other, similar pitchers because of his major-league readiness. 
    Cory Lewis, 22, 6’5” / 220 - RHP One of Minnesota’s many interesting pitchers from the 2022 draft, Cory Lewis has been a buzzsaw. There’s nothing overwhelming about his profile, but he can command the hell out of his fastball and slider while occasionally tossing in a knuckleball, just for fun. 
    Lewis’ ordinary draft stock, and his status as a developed college arm makes it difficult to decipher his undeniable dominance; I’ll keep him here for now—right in the middle of the pitcher melee that separates the best pitching prospects in the system from the rest of the herd. This is not a slight. Minnesota has proven wise in turning arms like Lewis into quality major leaguers, so this isn’t your normal piece of the scrap pile of young pitchers.
    Andrew Morris, 21, 6’0” / 195 - RHP Andrew Morris hasn’t been as overwhelming as his 2022 draftee peers, but he owns a potential outlier offering, and that buoys his profile while making him a real prospect. The pitch? A carry-monster fastball that usually sits in the lower 90s but can scratch 95—something that Bryce Miller has proven can dominate by itself. Throw in a solid slider, and Morris could easily be yet another college breakout arm for the Twins. 
    Zebby Matthews, 23, 6’5” / 225 - RHP Zebby Matthews tore up the Florida State League with Maddux-like dominance, creating an air of excitement around the Western Carolina University product, before a promotion to Cedar Rapids shot that down. His xFIP is still fine, but his strikeout rate plummeted. The rest of the season will tell us who the real Matthews is.
    There’s still a lot to like in his profile; he throws six legitimate pitches with good control, and that alone could carry him to the majors. The cutter appears to be the critical offering.
    C.J. Culpepper, 21, 6’3” / 193 - RHP You could basically copy/paste the previous sentiments regarding A-ball dominance. C.J. Culpepper—no relation to Daunte, trust me—earned the second-highest signing bonus of any California Baptist University player ever (name me the two MLB players from that college without looking it up and I’ll give you five dollars) and almost immediately crushed his competition with the Mighty Mussels. A promotion to Cedar Rapids cooled his stats (in only two starts), so, again, Culpepper’s prospect status is unclear.
    Still, a 27.9 K% cannot be ignored, and Culpepper soon could rise further up this list with more impressive starts.
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo, 20, 6’1” / 160 - RHP I haven’t seen many pitchers like Alejandro Hidalgo. His command is either fine—with maybe a walk or two here or there—or it’s disastrous, completely wiping out his outing with four, five, six walks over a shockingly low inning total. When he’s on, he has a devastating fastball/changeup combo and looks lethal; when he’s not, duck. 
    Ronny Henriquez, 23, 5’10” / 155 - RHP Entering the season as a dark-horse, hipster pick to carry important major-league frames, Ronny Henriquez has stumbled through a difficult season. An elbow injury was the first culprit, then he walked everyone and their mother at AAA, and a recent oblique strain knocked him out of commission for two weeks. He’s only allowed one run since returning, but the walks are still uncharacteristically overwhelming; he’ll need to fix that issue before he can rebound on this list. 
    Matt Canterino, 25, 6’2” / 222 - RHP Matt Canterino has not thrown a competitive pitch in over a year. Given his injuries and missing innings, it would be a miracle for Canterino to become an effective starter; the bullpen is his likely future home. If shorter bursts can keep him healthy, he could dominate in that role. 
    Kyle Jones, 23, 6’1” / 200 - RHP Yet another 2022 draft pitcher, Jones isn’t quite the strikeout artist seen in his peers, but he acquires groundballs at a hefty rate while keeping his whiffs and walks around league average. This looks like a vanilla, but safe profile that could earn him under-the-radar promotions to the system’s higher levels.
     
  2. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from TwinsAce for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (Mid-Season) + Writeups   
    System overview:
    A lot changes in half a season. Royce Lewis finally departed the prospect list nearly 6 (six!) years after the team drafted him first overall in 2017. Edouard Julien and Louie Varland also lost their prospect status, weakening the high-end of the list despite a recent influx of incredible talent. Speaking of which…
    Walker Jenkins! The Twins actually did it; they eschewed their conservative desires and simply took the best player available at number 5: a sweet-swinging high-schooler who drew incredible reviews for his makeup. You could probably write a book with the superlative ink spilled about Jenkins over the past few days, but there's a good reason for that: he’s a stud. He immediately gives the team a fascinating, dynamic top three of Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and himself. He hasn’t even been signed yet, so let’s not get carried away, but it’s certainly an exciting time for the Twins system.
    Which, I think, is the strongest it’s been in a few years. The team is now undeniably at the heart of the pitching movement, churning out and improving arms at a breakneck pace, making their pitching prospects that much more exciting. There are about four or five legitimately impressive arms in the system drafted in 2022, and with about 60 pitchers taken in this draft, a few more are certainly on their way. It’s madness. But it’s a good kind of madness. 
    I’ve done something different with this list. As you’ll see, batters and pitchers are separated—something I’ve always felt should be done given the differences between the two. This is especially true these days, as any arm with one or two interesting characteristics is millimeters away from breaking out; hitters don’t currently enjoy such an advantage. Here’s the list:
    Hitters:
    Brooks Lee, 22, 5’11” / 205 - SS Now that Royce Lewis is finally no longer a prospect (for the first time since 2017!), Brooks Lee takes over as the best prospect in Minnesota’s system. There’s a lot to like in his tools; his defense isn’t consistently excellent at shortstop—he’s missing the kind of raw athletic force that, say, Carlos Correa possesses—but he’s nimble enough to make plenty of wow plays and could stick at the position in the majors. If not, he’ll be fine at third or second. The Twins appear dead-set on getting him reps here, as he’s barely started anywhere else in 2023. 
    Offensively, he’ll likely hit, but his bat isn’t bulletproof. He doesn’t own any one overwhelming attribute, but he does most things pretty well and should never embarrass himself with poor swing decisions. Overall, he looks a lot like Marcus Semien with a little less pop—but I will warn that the lack of consistent game power is a concern. Really, though, most knocks feel like extreme nit-picking for a 22-year-old holding his own at AA in his first full year in organized ball. He’ll be fine and should join the Twins sometime in 2024.
    Emmanuel Rodriguez, 20, 5’10” / 210 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez is a lesson in two parts: one, that monthly stat-worrying over prospects is often foolish; and slack should be handed to players returning from major surgery. Rodriguez spent April and May striking out at Gallo-ian rates before deflating his whiffs to palatable levels; he’s punched out at a 25.5% clip since June started. And while that cutoff is as arbitrary as any, I think it’s clear that Rodriguez is far more comfortable at the plate these days than when the season started.
    He still has laughable power as his swing-as-hard-as-humanly-possible approach yields monster homers and titanic bullets shot all around the field, offering welts to fielders who stand in their way. The whiffs will probably always be present, though, as he has a habit of running deep counts. If he continues to evolve, he could be the toolsy stud center fielder of the future for the Twins. The bust potential is high, though.
    Walker Jenkins, 18, 6’3” / 190 - OF Surprise! After blowing smoke around Jacob Gonzalez for a few months, the Twins took the sane route and drafted an excellent high school prospect. I’ll repeat the common refrain here; Jenkins could have gone 1st in any normal draft, and the Twins are deeply fortunate to have such an impact talent in their farm system.
    It’s a little silly trying to rank recently-selected players alongside pros with hundreds of at-bats under their belt, but you have to put the guy somewhere, and I thought right behind Emmanuel Rodriguez was the best choice. I don’t really have a good reason for this choice; he can move up quickly with early success.
    -------------------------
    Matt Wallner, 25, 6’5” / 220 - OF The man who just cannot find a roster spot. Matt Wallner is the antithesis of Max Kepler: he’s going to swing hard, clobber a lot of baseballs, and play bumbling, clumsy defense in right field. We’ve seen his style of play work at times, as apparent by his little MLB playing time this year, but his extreme contact deficiency will spell ugly hitting streaks, and I worry what major-league pitchers are going to do to him once they become comfortable. Still, he rakes. His max exit velocity is already elite, and it’s not impossible to imagine an Austin Riley-like metamorphosis from hulking slugger to well-rounded nuclear offensive force.
    Defensively, Wallner is going to cost the Twins runs. He may earn some back with his arm—a true bazooka that will vex greedy baserunners, or just keep them stationary in fear—but the dropoff from Kepler to Wallner will be obvious. Minnesota’s favor towards flyball pitchers, and their insistence on playing Kepler and Gallo may keep him hidden on the periphery longer than most have the stomach for.
    Tanner Schobel, 22, 5’9” / 170 - 2B/3B Tanner Schobel is something of a throwback to the 2000s Twins: a slick do-it-all infielder with above-average speed and a good chance at becoming a roughly 2 WAR player for more years than you realize. He’s even added more ISO (in a pitcher’s league!) as his extended play with Cedar Rapids has been powerful. The thump may not be a mirage; Schobel slugged .689 his sophomore season at Virginia Tech. He loads up like Eugenio Saurez, allowing the ball to travel a little further than most before the full power of his torque releases, usually in a punishing manner (to the ball).
    Defensively, Schobel has mostly split time between second and third—his two most natural positions. He could potentially play shortstop, but that position has seen a lot of Noah Miller and Jose Salas, making it difficult for Schobel to earn playing time there. Overall, Schobel fits a likeable infielder mold that many good-to-great players have thrived in.
    -------------------------
    Yasser Mercedes, 18, 6’2” / 175 - OF An expensive international signing from a few years ago, Yasser Mercedes showcased a dynamic offensive profile in 2022 before completely falling off a cliff in his first taste of stateside ball. Was he a victim of untrustworthy DSL stats? Is this a fluke? It’s far too early to tell; for now he’ll stay stagnant in my prospect list. 
    Austin Martin, 24, 6’0” / 185 - SS/OF Oh what a fall for Austin Martin. You know the story by now: his flaming college performance capitulated immediately after the Blue Jays drafted him, and now the Twins are looking to get him back in the groove. 2022 was almost a complete loss, but Martin flashed life in September, and had a respectable enough AFL to soften his fall from grace.
    Frustratingly, an injury knocked Martin out of commission until a few days ago, when he finally popped back up on the Saints’ roster. A strong showing could earn him a quick promotion, as Royce Lewis is currently on the mend well until August; José Miranda took his place but could be shuffled if his bat doesn’t turn around. Hopefully Martin finds the minimum power needed to become a quality major-league bat, because his potential is of a classic two-hole batter, slashing hits across the field while stealing at whim. 
    Luke Keaschall, 20, 6’1” / 190 - INF The Twins selected Luke Keaschall—an infielder out of Arizona State—with their second-round pick in 2023. Plenty of excellent alumnus call that college home, and Keaschall could join them soon, as he absolutely smoked PAC-12 pitching with a .353/.443/.725 slashline. We’ll understand Keaschall more as a prospect in time, so consider this ranking very loose; he could move up or down easily. 
    Noah Miller, 20, 5’11” / 190 - SS Alright, I was probably wrong about Noah Miller. I grasped tightly onto his excellent strikeout-to-walk rate in 2022, but now that has evaporated, leaving a powerless, on-base-less profile only buoyed by his excellent shortstop defense. He added a tinge of power in 2023, upping his ISO almost .030 points up to .094, but that hasn’t been enough to save his hitting, and infielders who hit like this need a legendary glove to stick around in MLB for any serious period of time. 
    Noah Cardenas, 23, 5’11” / 195 - C/1B I still cannot fathom why Noah Cardenas is not more well-received as a prospect. He’s hitting for a 129 wRC+ with the Kernels—as a catcher, mind you—after crushing A ball with similar vigor. His pop is more in doubles than homers, but he can take a walk like no one’s business, and that kind of plate control should translate well as he progresses up through the minors.
    The bugaboo: his defense. The Twins know this, and often spell time at 1st and DH (although Andrew Cossetti’s presence feeds into this decision as well). We don’t have public catching defensive metrics, but Eric Longenhagen rated him a 30-grade defender, and I’m willing to believe in his assessment. Still, the Twins were able to turn Mitch Garver into a workable defensive catcher—and Ryan Jeffers wasn’t a lock to stay at catcher either—so it’s very possible that Cardenas follows those two and blossoms into an everyday player. 
    Danny De Andrade, 19, 5’11” / 190 - SS We’re finally seeing Danny De Andrade playing in full-season ball and the results have been… whelming. He’s walked a fair amount, but the power is merely ok, and he’s probably not going to play shortstop long-term. Still, this is a 19-year-old; picking on him too much seems like an unwise decision. He should rise up this list further with time. 
    Jose Salas, 20, 6’0” / 191 - INF At this point, it’s unclear what Jose Salas does well. He’s in the middle of a dreadful repetition of A+ ball in which his slashline is so porous that I don’t even want to type it out. You don’t need to look it up; it’s bad. Normally this kind of performance would take a player completely off the list, but prospect evaluators swore he was around a 45 FV player coming into the year, and I’ll offer some slack in this regard. It won’t last long unless something changes quickly. 
    Kala’i Rosario, 21, 6’0” / 205 - OF It’s been an impressive rebound for Kala’i Rosario, who wandered the prospect desert after being selected in the 2020 draft. Once a pure power threat, Rosario has improved in each stat of his triple slash-line, giving him a mean offensive profile that Midwest pitchers haven’t figured out yet. He even sliced a few points off his strikeout rate. 
    Yet the hit tool remains shaky. There are major leaguers who can make it work with a swing-hard-and-maybe-something-good-will-happen approach, but it’s a wasteland of batters who pitchers figured out quickly; whether Rosario is any different will be seen shortly. He should see a promotion to AA soon, and his immense power could carry him to the majors. 
    -------------------------
    Andrew Cossetti, 23, 5’10” / 215 - C/1B Andrew Cossetti mashed A-ball with a hilarious .330/.462/.607 slashline before the Twins showed mercy on poor Florida State League arms, sending the menace to Cedar Rapids. His offense has cooled, but he still settled into a firmly above-average performance—especially for a catcher holding a .262 BABIP. He often spends time at 1st also, perhaps signalling Minnesota’s thoughts on his ability to stick as a backstop, but the bat may be real, and that’s enough to make Cossetti an exciting name to watch. 
    Jose Rodriguez, 18, 6’2” / 196 - OF Jose Rodriguez popped 13 homers in an impressive somehow-young-for-the-level DSL debut and is now hitting for a 93 wRC+ with the FCL Twins. Like Mercedes, the question regarding untrustworthy DSL numbers exists here, but I’ll give Rodriguez some benefit of the doubt considering his absurd youth and small sample of plate appearances at his new level. 
    Yunior Severino, 23, 6’0” / 189 - 2B/3B This is now the third season in a row that Yunior Severino has mashed the ball; his profile still scares the crap out of me. He makes his bread with power and walks, but the walks have dropped off since he reached AA, and we’re left with a high ISO/high BABIP batting line that, to me, seems unsustainable outside the Texas League. Maybe that’s unfair, but there’s also probably a reason the team has been slow to send him to AAA. 
    DaShawn Kiersey Jr., 26, 6’0” / 195 - OF Is this a toolsy outfielder finally breaking out, or an old-for-the-level batter picking on pitchers who don’t know any better? Who knows—and the truth probably lies outside my black-and-white dichotomy—but, there’s no way to say it any other way: DaShawn Kiersey Jr. is raking.
    His season under-the-hood looks largely the same as 2022, save for a nearly .040 point bump in ISO, but Kiersey Jr. has already clobbered nine homers; it took him three minor league seasons after being drafted to hit his first longball. Throw in game-altering stolen base potential, and Kiersey Jr. is a compelling late-breakout outfielder who’ll need to claw past some other uber-talented players if he ever sees the majors. He’s blistered the ball since June started, turning in a .347/.407/.579 slash with seven steals.
    Ben Ross, 22, 6’0” / 180 - INF If you want a guy who can rake across the field, Ben Ross is your guy. He’s bopped 13 homers in a notorious pitchers league, all while playing at 1st base, shortstop, 3rd base, left field, center field, and right field (he played second last year, but not this year). Whether he’s adept at all these positions or merely a warm body capable of moonlighting at them will be seen, but the profile is certainly fascinating. He could probably catch if need be. 
    Misael Urbina, 21, 5’10” / 190 - OF Misael Urbina is continuing his every-other-year pattern of not hitting. It appeared he bounced back nicely after a truly awful 2021 season, but not one number of his A+ slashline starts with a “.3” and, yeah, that’s not gonna play. The talent is still evident, but smooth sailing it has not been, and I worry that Urbina is not going to live up to the promise he showed in 2019.
    Aaron Sabato, 24, 6’2” / 230 - 1B It’s been a molasses-slow movement through the system for the 2020 1st-round selection. He hasn’t lived up to the hype he saw out of college, but—somehow—he’s dutifully earned promotions and usually turns in above-average performances after becoming acclimated to his competition. That’s not what you want from a 1st-round pick, but there’s still a very real chance Sabato can contribute to the major-league team.
    Pitchers:
    Marco Raya, 20, 6’0” / 170 - RHP The recently promoted Marco Raya represents Minnesota’s best shot at a top-of-the-rotation arm. That isn’t to say that he’s a lock to dominate—and, indeed, undervalued arms like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have proven that the best MLB pitchers aren’t always the well-known guys—but, if anyone here is a betting man, Raya would be the favored horse. He attacks batters with an ideal vertical fastball and a pair of devastating breaking balls, known to bring hitters to their knees if they swing improperly.
    Despite being over three years younger than the average competition at A+ ball, Raya smoked hitters, punching out nearly 30% of batters faced while chopping two percentage points off his walk rate from last year. It’s difficult to parse whether this was Raya just being plain better than these hitters, as the Twins capped his innings total in his starts at four, but the numbers are hard to ignore, and the team may be off-setting their conservatism with an aggressive promotion to the Wind Surge. The Texas League is known for hitting; good luck to Raya with his new competition. 
    David Festa, 23, 6’6” / 185 - RHP There’s a strong argument for David Festa as the better pitching prospect, and, in the end, Raya won by a sliver. This is no knock on Festa; the Seton Hall product followed a now well-paved road set by the Falvey Twins, as he almost immediately enjoyed and sustained a four-tick velocity bump. The strikeouts soon came. 
    With effective offerings in his sharp slider and surprisingly effective changeup (surprising only in that every pitching prospect has a “developing” cambio), Festa has impressive peripherals at AA, even if the walks have trended up with subsequent promotions. He was recently added to the Futures Game roster, and could see time with the Twins in 2024 if the current glut of 40-man options prove insufficient. 
    -------------------------
    Connor Prielipp, 22, 6’2” / 210 - LHP Almost a year after the Twins selected him, Connor Prielipp remains a mystery. He made exactly one start for the Kernels before hitting the IL, shuttled off to the grand nothingness that is the Twins’ prospect injury list, only evident through occasional tweets and whispers. The team finally ended his season, giving us 1 (one) start and no new knowledge on what Prielipp could become.
    It’s frustrating given Prielipp’s potentially dominant slider; a healthy Prielipp could easily be one of the best prospects in Minnesota’s system, but he can now only claim a combined 34 ⅔ innings between his time at Alabama and in pro ball. What will eventually become of the 22-year-old is just as unclear as when the Twins drafted him in 2022. 
    Charlee Soto, 17, 6’5” / 197 - RHP If you built a pitcher in a lab, this is what he would look like—6 foot 5 inches with a big fastball and yeah, you get the idea. Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs described his heater as sink-oriented, which does differentiate him from your typical ride/carry guy so coveted by MLB teams these days.
    Like Walker, ranking Soto is a fool’s errand. He’s even younger than your typical high schooler at 17, and I doubt we’ll understand Soto more as a prospect for at least a few years.
    -------------------------
    Simeon Woods Richardson, 22, 6’3” / 210 - RHP Disastrous. Following a minor stabilizing season at AA and AAA last year, Simeon Woods Richardson is imploding in 2023. His K-BB% is 3.7%, far far far below the ground level acceptable for even a below-average major-league arm. 
    This is nothing like the pitcher the Twins expected to receive in 2021—and he’s so far removed from his performance at any part of his minor league career that an injury is the only real explanation for his troubles. Minnesota pulled this same thing with Jordan Balazovic in 2022, allowing him to take drastic lumps while recovering from an injury, but at least Balazovic still had the Ks; Woods Richardson has nothing. With other arms clearly ahead of him in the depth chart, Woods Richardson’s path to the majors appears blocked, or at least heavily guarded.
    Jordan Balazovic, 24, 6’5” / 215 - RHP I think Jordan Balazvoic has been ranked differently in each list I’ve made, and I don’t think that’s a good thing. He has rebounded nicely from his putrid 2022 season, and parlayed a strikeout/walk oriented AAA performance into… a BABIP-aided 1.80 ERA over 10 major-league innings. No, I don’t get it either.
    There’s legitimate upside, though, with Balazovic’s killer vertical fastball/curve approach that could transform him into the new Griffin Jax. That may be a disappointment from the height of his prospect days in 2018 and 2019, but Jax is a valuable piece on the Twins; hopefully Balazovic will be as well. 
    Blayne Enlow, 24, 6’3” / 170 (doubtful, but it’s what Fangraphs says) - RHP Risen from prospect ashes like the phoenix of old, Blayne Enlow might actually be a major-league arm. After being DFA’d and left out to dry last year, Enlow remained a Twin, crushing AA while halving his walk rate and adding a few more strikeouts to the mix. The promotion to AAA came soon.
    His time with the Saints hasn’t been as fruitful, but 17 ⅓ innings is a small sample, and I’m willing to bet on a future where Enlow can find an effective role in the majors. 
    Brent Headrick, 25, 6’6” / 235 - LHP I still don’t really know what to make of Brent Headrick. He has a tremendous and a disastrous fastball, leading me to believe that he’s going to be a reliever long-term, not a starter. His height, odd arm action, and command should secure him a spot on the team in some capacity, but that fastball problem is dire, and it may not be easy to fix. Headrick gets a leg-up on other, similar pitchers because of his major-league readiness. 
    Cory Lewis, 22, 6’5” / 220 - RHP One of Minnesota’s many interesting pitchers from the 2022 draft, Cory Lewis has been a buzzsaw. There’s nothing overwhelming about his profile, but he can command the hell out of his fastball and slider while occasionally tossing in a knuckleball, just for fun. 
    Lewis’ ordinary draft stock, and his status as a developed college arm makes it difficult to decipher his undeniable dominance; I’ll keep him here for now—right in the middle of the pitcher melee that separates the best pitching prospects in the system from the rest of the herd. This is not a slight. Minnesota has proven wise in turning arms like Lewis into quality major leaguers, so this isn’t your normal piece of the scrap pile of young pitchers.
    Andrew Morris, 21, 6’0” / 195 - RHP Andrew Morris hasn’t been as overwhelming as his 2022 draftee peers, but he owns a potential outlier offering, and that buoys his profile while making him a real prospect. The pitch? A carry-monster fastball that usually sits in the lower 90s but can scratch 95—something that Bryce Miller has proven can dominate by itself. Throw in a solid slider, and Morris could easily be yet another college breakout arm for the Twins. 
    Zebby Matthews, 23, 6’5” / 225 - RHP Zebby Matthews tore up the Florida State League with Maddux-like dominance, creating an air of excitement around the Western Carolina University product, before a promotion to Cedar Rapids shot that down. His xFIP is still fine, but his strikeout rate plummeted. The rest of the season will tell us who the real Matthews is.
    There’s still a lot to like in his profile; he throws six legitimate pitches with good control, and that alone could carry him to the majors. The cutter appears to be the critical offering.
    C.J. Culpepper, 21, 6’3” / 193 - RHP You could basically copy/paste the previous sentiments regarding A-ball dominance. C.J. Culpepper—no relation to Daunte, trust me—earned the second-highest signing bonus of any California Baptist University player ever (name me the two MLB players from that college without looking it up and I’ll give you five dollars) and almost immediately crushed his competition with the Mighty Mussels. A promotion to Cedar Rapids cooled his stats (in only two starts), so, again, Culpepper’s prospect status is unclear.
    Still, a 27.9 K% cannot be ignored, and Culpepper soon could rise further up this list with more impressive starts.
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo, 20, 6’1” / 160 - RHP I haven’t seen many pitchers like Alejandro Hidalgo. His command is either fine—with maybe a walk or two here or there—or it’s disastrous, completely wiping out his outing with four, five, six walks over a shockingly low inning total. When he’s on, he has a devastating fastball/changeup combo and looks lethal; when he’s not, duck. 
    Ronny Henriquez, 23, 5’10” / 155 - RHP Entering the season as a dark-horse, hipster pick to carry important major-league frames, Ronny Henriquez has stumbled through a difficult season. An elbow injury was the first culprit, then he walked everyone and their mother at AAA, and a recent oblique strain knocked him out of commission for two weeks. He’s only allowed one run since returning, but the walks are still uncharacteristically overwhelming; he’ll need to fix that issue before he can rebound on this list. 
    Matt Canterino, 25, 6’2” / 222 - RHP Matt Canterino has not thrown a competitive pitch in over a year. Given his injuries and missing innings, it would be a miracle for Canterino to become an effective starter; the bullpen is his likely future home. If shorter bursts can keep him healthy, he could dominate in that role. 
    Kyle Jones, 23, 6’1” / 200 - RHP Yet another 2022 draft pitcher, Jones isn’t quite the strikeout artist seen in his peers, but he acquires groundballs at a hefty rate while keeping his whiffs and walks around league average. This looks like a vanilla, but safe profile that could earn him under-the-radar promotions to the system’s higher levels.
     
  3. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from weitz41 for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (Mid-Season) + Writeups   
    System overview:
    A lot changes in half a season. Royce Lewis finally departed the prospect list nearly 6 (six!) years after the team drafted him first overall in 2017. Edouard Julien and Louie Varland also lost their prospect status, weakening the high-end of the list despite a recent influx of incredible talent. Speaking of which…
    Walker Jenkins! The Twins actually did it; they eschewed their conservative desires and simply took the best player available at number 5: a sweet-swinging high-schooler who drew incredible reviews for his makeup. You could probably write a book with the superlative ink spilled about Jenkins over the past few days, but there's a good reason for that: he’s a stud. He immediately gives the team a fascinating, dynamic top three of Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and himself. He hasn’t even been signed yet, so let’s not get carried away, but it’s certainly an exciting time for the Twins system.
    Which, I think, is the strongest it’s been in a few years. The team is now undeniably at the heart of the pitching movement, churning out and improving arms at a breakneck pace, making their pitching prospects that much more exciting. There are about four or five legitimately impressive arms in the system drafted in 2022, and with about 60 pitchers taken in this draft, a few more are certainly on their way. It’s madness. But it’s a good kind of madness. 
    I’ve done something different with this list. As you’ll see, batters and pitchers are separated—something I’ve always felt should be done given the differences between the two. This is especially true these days, as any arm with one or two interesting characteristics is millimeters away from breaking out; hitters don’t currently enjoy such an advantage. Here’s the list:
    Hitters:
    Brooks Lee, 22, 5’11” / 205 - SS Now that Royce Lewis is finally no longer a prospect (for the first time since 2017!), Brooks Lee takes over as the best prospect in Minnesota’s system. There’s a lot to like in his tools; his defense isn’t consistently excellent at shortstop—he’s missing the kind of raw athletic force that, say, Carlos Correa possesses—but he’s nimble enough to make plenty of wow plays and could stick at the position in the majors. If not, he’ll be fine at third or second. The Twins appear dead-set on getting him reps here, as he’s barely started anywhere else in 2023. 
    Offensively, he’ll likely hit, but his bat isn’t bulletproof. He doesn’t own any one overwhelming attribute, but he does most things pretty well and should never embarrass himself with poor swing decisions. Overall, he looks a lot like Marcus Semien with a little less pop—but I will warn that the lack of consistent game power is a concern. Really, though, most knocks feel like extreme nit-picking for a 22-year-old holding his own at AA in his first full year in organized ball. He’ll be fine and should join the Twins sometime in 2024.
    Emmanuel Rodriguez, 20, 5’10” / 210 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez is a lesson in two parts: one, that monthly stat-worrying over prospects is often foolish; and slack should be handed to players returning from major surgery. Rodriguez spent April and May striking out at Gallo-ian rates before deflating his whiffs to palatable levels; he’s punched out at a 25.5% clip since June started. And while that cutoff is as arbitrary as any, I think it’s clear that Rodriguez is far more comfortable at the plate these days than when the season started.
    He still has laughable power as his swing-as-hard-as-humanly-possible approach yields monster homers and titanic bullets shot all around the field, offering welts to fielders who stand in their way. The whiffs will probably always be present, though, as he has a habit of running deep counts. If he continues to evolve, he could be the toolsy stud center fielder of the future for the Twins. The bust potential is high, though.
    Walker Jenkins, 18, 6’3” / 190 - OF Surprise! After blowing smoke around Jacob Gonzalez for a few months, the Twins took the sane route and drafted an excellent high school prospect. I’ll repeat the common refrain here; Jenkins could have gone 1st in any normal draft, and the Twins are deeply fortunate to have such an impact talent in their farm system.
    It’s a little silly trying to rank recently-selected players alongside pros with hundreds of at-bats under their belt, but you have to put the guy somewhere, and I thought right behind Emmanuel Rodriguez was the best choice. I don’t really have a good reason for this choice; he can move up quickly with early success.
    -------------------------
    Matt Wallner, 25, 6’5” / 220 - OF The man who just cannot find a roster spot. Matt Wallner is the antithesis of Max Kepler: he’s going to swing hard, clobber a lot of baseballs, and play bumbling, clumsy defense in right field. We’ve seen his style of play work at times, as apparent by his little MLB playing time this year, but his extreme contact deficiency will spell ugly hitting streaks, and I worry what major-league pitchers are going to do to him once they become comfortable. Still, he rakes. His max exit velocity is already elite, and it’s not impossible to imagine an Austin Riley-like metamorphosis from hulking slugger to well-rounded nuclear offensive force.
    Defensively, Wallner is going to cost the Twins runs. He may earn some back with his arm—a true bazooka that will vex greedy baserunners, or just keep them stationary in fear—but the dropoff from Kepler to Wallner will be obvious. Minnesota’s favor towards flyball pitchers, and their insistence on playing Kepler and Gallo may keep him hidden on the periphery longer than most have the stomach for.
    Tanner Schobel, 22, 5’9” / 170 - 2B/3B Tanner Schobel is something of a throwback to the 2000s Twins: a slick do-it-all infielder with above-average speed and a good chance at becoming a roughly 2 WAR player for more years than you realize. He’s even added more ISO (in a pitcher’s league!) as his extended play with Cedar Rapids has been powerful. The thump may not be a mirage; Schobel slugged .689 his sophomore season at Virginia Tech. He loads up like Eugenio Saurez, allowing the ball to travel a little further than most before the full power of his torque releases, usually in a punishing manner (to the ball).
    Defensively, Schobel has mostly split time between second and third—his two most natural positions. He could potentially play shortstop, but that position has seen a lot of Noah Miller and Jose Salas, making it difficult for Schobel to earn playing time there. Overall, Schobel fits a likeable infielder mold that many good-to-great players have thrived in.
    -------------------------
    Yasser Mercedes, 18, 6’2” / 175 - OF An expensive international signing from a few years ago, Yasser Mercedes showcased a dynamic offensive profile in 2022 before completely falling off a cliff in his first taste of stateside ball. Was he a victim of untrustworthy DSL stats? Is this a fluke? It’s far too early to tell; for now he’ll stay stagnant in my prospect list. 
    Austin Martin, 24, 6’0” / 185 - SS/OF Oh what a fall for Austin Martin. You know the story by now: his flaming college performance capitulated immediately after the Blue Jays drafted him, and now the Twins are looking to get him back in the groove. 2022 was almost a complete loss, but Martin flashed life in September, and had a respectable enough AFL to soften his fall from grace.
    Frustratingly, an injury knocked Martin out of commission until a few days ago, when he finally popped back up on the Saints’ roster. A strong showing could earn him a quick promotion, as Royce Lewis is currently on the mend well until August; José Miranda took his place but could be shuffled if his bat doesn’t turn around. Hopefully Martin finds the minimum power needed to become a quality major-league bat, because his potential is of a classic two-hole batter, slashing hits across the field while stealing at whim. 
    Luke Keaschall, 20, 6’1” / 190 - INF The Twins selected Luke Keaschall—an infielder out of Arizona State—with their second-round pick in 2023. Plenty of excellent alumnus call that college home, and Keaschall could join them soon, as he absolutely smoked PAC-12 pitching with a .353/.443/.725 slashline. We’ll understand Keaschall more as a prospect in time, so consider this ranking very loose; he could move up or down easily. 
    Noah Miller, 20, 5’11” / 190 - SS Alright, I was probably wrong about Noah Miller. I grasped tightly onto his excellent strikeout-to-walk rate in 2022, but now that has evaporated, leaving a powerless, on-base-less profile only buoyed by his excellent shortstop defense. He added a tinge of power in 2023, upping his ISO almost .030 points up to .094, but that hasn’t been enough to save his hitting, and infielders who hit like this need a legendary glove to stick around in MLB for any serious period of time. 
    Noah Cardenas, 23, 5’11” / 195 - C/1B I still cannot fathom why Noah Cardenas is not more well-received as a prospect. He’s hitting for a 129 wRC+ with the Kernels—as a catcher, mind you—after crushing A ball with similar vigor. His pop is more in doubles than homers, but he can take a walk like no one’s business, and that kind of plate control should translate well as he progresses up through the minors.
    The bugaboo: his defense. The Twins know this, and often spell time at 1st and DH (although Andrew Cossetti’s presence feeds into this decision as well). We don’t have public catching defensive metrics, but Eric Longenhagen rated him a 30-grade defender, and I’m willing to believe in his assessment. Still, the Twins were able to turn Mitch Garver into a workable defensive catcher—and Ryan Jeffers wasn’t a lock to stay at catcher either—so it’s very possible that Cardenas follows those two and blossoms into an everyday player. 
    Danny De Andrade, 19, 5’11” / 190 - SS We’re finally seeing Danny De Andrade playing in full-season ball and the results have been… whelming. He’s walked a fair amount, but the power is merely ok, and he’s probably not going to play shortstop long-term. Still, this is a 19-year-old; picking on him too much seems like an unwise decision. He should rise up this list further with time. 
    Jose Salas, 20, 6’0” / 191 - INF At this point, it’s unclear what Jose Salas does well. He’s in the middle of a dreadful repetition of A+ ball in which his slashline is so porous that I don’t even want to type it out. You don’t need to look it up; it’s bad. Normally this kind of performance would take a player completely off the list, but prospect evaluators swore he was around a 45 FV player coming into the year, and I’ll offer some slack in this regard. It won’t last long unless something changes quickly. 
    Kala’i Rosario, 21, 6’0” / 205 - OF It’s been an impressive rebound for Kala’i Rosario, who wandered the prospect desert after being selected in the 2020 draft. Once a pure power threat, Rosario has improved in each stat of his triple slash-line, giving him a mean offensive profile that Midwest pitchers haven’t figured out yet. He even sliced a few points off his strikeout rate. 
    Yet the hit tool remains shaky. There are major leaguers who can make it work with a swing-hard-and-maybe-something-good-will-happen approach, but it’s a wasteland of batters who pitchers figured out quickly; whether Rosario is any different will be seen shortly. He should see a promotion to AA soon, and his immense power could carry him to the majors. 
    -------------------------
    Andrew Cossetti, 23, 5’10” / 215 - C/1B Andrew Cossetti mashed A-ball with a hilarious .330/.462/.607 slashline before the Twins showed mercy on poor Florida State League arms, sending the menace to Cedar Rapids. His offense has cooled, but he still settled into a firmly above-average performance—especially for a catcher holding a .262 BABIP. He often spends time at 1st also, perhaps signalling Minnesota’s thoughts on his ability to stick as a backstop, but the bat may be real, and that’s enough to make Cossetti an exciting name to watch. 
    Jose Rodriguez, 18, 6’2” / 196 - OF Jose Rodriguez popped 13 homers in an impressive somehow-young-for-the-level DSL debut and is now hitting for a 93 wRC+ with the FCL Twins. Like Mercedes, the question regarding untrustworthy DSL numbers exists here, but I’ll give Rodriguez some benefit of the doubt considering his absurd youth and small sample of plate appearances at his new level. 
    Yunior Severino, 23, 6’0” / 189 - 2B/3B This is now the third season in a row that Yunior Severino has mashed the ball; his profile still scares the crap out of me. He makes his bread with power and walks, but the walks have dropped off since he reached AA, and we’re left with a high ISO/high BABIP batting line that, to me, seems unsustainable outside the Texas League. Maybe that’s unfair, but there’s also probably a reason the team has been slow to send him to AAA. 
    DaShawn Kiersey Jr., 26, 6’0” / 195 - OF Is this a toolsy outfielder finally breaking out, or an old-for-the-level batter picking on pitchers who don’t know any better? Who knows—and the truth probably lies outside my black-and-white dichotomy—but, there’s no way to say it any other way: DaShawn Kiersey Jr. is raking.
    His season under-the-hood looks largely the same as 2022, save for a nearly .040 point bump in ISO, but Kiersey Jr. has already clobbered nine homers; it took him three minor league seasons after being drafted to hit his first longball. Throw in game-altering stolen base potential, and Kiersey Jr. is a compelling late-breakout outfielder who’ll need to claw past some other uber-talented players if he ever sees the majors. He’s blistered the ball since June started, turning in a .347/.407/.579 slash with seven steals.
    Ben Ross, 22, 6’0” / 180 - INF If you want a guy who can rake across the field, Ben Ross is your guy. He’s bopped 13 homers in a notorious pitchers league, all while playing at 1st base, shortstop, 3rd base, left field, center field, and right field (he played second last year, but not this year). Whether he’s adept at all these positions or merely a warm body capable of moonlighting at them will be seen, but the profile is certainly fascinating. He could probably catch if need be. 
    Misael Urbina, 21, 5’10” / 190 - OF Misael Urbina is continuing his every-other-year pattern of not hitting. It appeared he bounced back nicely after a truly awful 2021 season, but not one number of his A+ slashline starts with a “.3” and, yeah, that’s not gonna play. The talent is still evident, but smooth sailing it has not been, and I worry that Urbina is not going to live up to the promise he showed in 2019.
    Aaron Sabato, 24, 6’2” / 230 - 1B It’s been a molasses-slow movement through the system for the 2020 1st-round selection. He hasn’t lived up to the hype he saw out of college, but—somehow—he’s dutifully earned promotions and usually turns in above-average performances after becoming acclimated to his competition. That’s not what you want from a 1st-round pick, but there’s still a very real chance Sabato can contribute to the major-league team.
    Pitchers:
    Marco Raya, 20, 6’0” / 170 - RHP The recently promoted Marco Raya represents Minnesota’s best shot at a top-of-the-rotation arm. That isn’t to say that he’s a lock to dominate—and, indeed, undervalued arms like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have proven that the best MLB pitchers aren’t always the well-known guys—but, if anyone here is a betting man, Raya would be the favored horse. He attacks batters with an ideal vertical fastball and a pair of devastating breaking balls, known to bring hitters to their knees if they swing improperly.
    Despite being over three years younger than the average competition at A+ ball, Raya smoked hitters, punching out nearly 30% of batters faced while chopping two percentage points off his walk rate from last year. It’s difficult to parse whether this was Raya just being plain better than these hitters, as the Twins capped his innings total in his starts at four, but the numbers are hard to ignore, and the team may be off-setting their conservatism with an aggressive promotion to the Wind Surge. The Texas League is known for hitting; good luck to Raya with his new competition. 
    David Festa, 23, 6’6” / 185 - RHP There’s a strong argument for David Festa as the better pitching prospect, and, in the end, Raya won by a sliver. This is no knock on Festa; the Seton Hall product followed a now well-paved road set by the Falvey Twins, as he almost immediately enjoyed and sustained a four-tick velocity bump. The strikeouts soon came. 
    With effective offerings in his sharp slider and surprisingly effective changeup (surprising only in that every pitching prospect has a “developing” cambio), Festa has impressive peripherals at AA, even if the walks have trended up with subsequent promotions. He was recently added to the Futures Game roster, and could see time with the Twins in 2024 if the current glut of 40-man options prove insufficient. 
    -------------------------
    Connor Prielipp, 22, 6’2” / 210 - LHP Almost a year after the Twins selected him, Connor Prielipp remains a mystery. He made exactly one start for the Kernels before hitting the IL, shuttled off to the grand nothingness that is the Twins’ prospect injury list, only evident through occasional tweets and whispers. The team finally ended his season, giving us 1 (one) start and no new knowledge on what Prielipp could become.
    It’s frustrating given Prielipp’s potentially dominant slider; a healthy Prielipp could easily be one of the best prospects in Minnesota’s system, but he can now only claim a combined 34 ⅔ innings between his time at Alabama and in pro ball. What will eventually become of the 22-year-old is just as unclear as when the Twins drafted him in 2022. 
    Charlee Soto, 17, 6’5” / 197 - RHP If you built a pitcher in a lab, this is what he would look like—6 foot 5 inches with a big fastball and yeah, you get the idea. Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs described his heater as sink-oriented, which does differentiate him from your typical ride/carry guy so coveted by MLB teams these days.
    Like Walker, ranking Soto is a fool’s errand. He’s even younger than your typical high schooler at 17, and I doubt we’ll understand Soto more as a prospect for at least a few years.
    -------------------------
    Simeon Woods Richardson, 22, 6’3” / 210 - RHP Disastrous. Following a minor stabilizing season at AA and AAA last year, Simeon Woods Richardson is imploding in 2023. His K-BB% is 3.7%, far far far below the ground level acceptable for even a below-average major-league arm. 
    This is nothing like the pitcher the Twins expected to receive in 2021—and he’s so far removed from his performance at any part of his minor league career that an injury is the only real explanation for his troubles. Minnesota pulled this same thing with Jordan Balazovic in 2022, allowing him to take drastic lumps while recovering from an injury, but at least Balazovic still had the Ks; Woods Richardson has nothing. With other arms clearly ahead of him in the depth chart, Woods Richardson’s path to the majors appears blocked, or at least heavily guarded.
    Jordan Balazovic, 24, 6’5” / 215 - RHP I think Jordan Balazvoic has been ranked differently in each list I’ve made, and I don’t think that’s a good thing. He has rebounded nicely from his putrid 2022 season, and parlayed a strikeout/walk oriented AAA performance into… a BABIP-aided 1.80 ERA over 10 major-league innings. No, I don’t get it either.
    There’s legitimate upside, though, with Balazovic’s killer vertical fastball/curve approach that could transform him into the new Griffin Jax. That may be a disappointment from the height of his prospect days in 2018 and 2019, but Jax is a valuable piece on the Twins; hopefully Balazovic will be as well. 
    Blayne Enlow, 24, 6’3” / 170 (doubtful, but it’s what Fangraphs says) - RHP Risen from prospect ashes like the phoenix of old, Blayne Enlow might actually be a major-league arm. After being DFA’d and left out to dry last year, Enlow remained a Twin, crushing AA while halving his walk rate and adding a few more strikeouts to the mix. The promotion to AAA came soon.
    His time with the Saints hasn’t been as fruitful, but 17 ⅓ innings is a small sample, and I’m willing to bet on a future where Enlow can find an effective role in the majors. 
    Brent Headrick, 25, 6’6” / 235 - LHP I still don’t really know what to make of Brent Headrick. He has a tremendous and a disastrous fastball, leading me to believe that he’s going to be a reliever long-term, not a starter. His height, odd arm action, and command should secure him a spot on the team in some capacity, but that fastball problem is dire, and it may not be easy to fix. Headrick gets a leg-up on other, similar pitchers because of his major-league readiness. 
    Cory Lewis, 22, 6’5” / 220 - RHP One of Minnesota’s many interesting pitchers from the 2022 draft, Cory Lewis has been a buzzsaw. There’s nothing overwhelming about his profile, but he can command the hell out of his fastball and slider while occasionally tossing in a knuckleball, just for fun. 
    Lewis’ ordinary draft stock, and his status as a developed college arm makes it difficult to decipher his undeniable dominance; I’ll keep him here for now—right in the middle of the pitcher melee that separates the best pitching prospects in the system from the rest of the herd. This is not a slight. Minnesota has proven wise in turning arms like Lewis into quality major leaguers, so this isn’t your normal piece of the scrap pile of young pitchers.
    Andrew Morris, 21, 6’0” / 195 - RHP Andrew Morris hasn’t been as overwhelming as his 2022 draftee peers, but he owns a potential outlier offering, and that buoys his profile while making him a real prospect. The pitch? A carry-monster fastball that usually sits in the lower 90s but can scratch 95—something that Bryce Miller has proven can dominate by itself. Throw in a solid slider, and Morris could easily be yet another college breakout arm for the Twins. 
    Zebby Matthews, 23, 6’5” / 225 - RHP Zebby Matthews tore up the Florida State League with Maddux-like dominance, creating an air of excitement around the Western Carolina University product, before a promotion to Cedar Rapids shot that down. His xFIP is still fine, but his strikeout rate plummeted. The rest of the season will tell us who the real Matthews is.
    There’s still a lot to like in his profile; he throws six legitimate pitches with good control, and that alone could carry him to the majors. The cutter appears to be the critical offering.
    C.J. Culpepper, 21, 6’3” / 193 - RHP You could basically copy/paste the previous sentiments regarding A-ball dominance. C.J. Culpepper—no relation to Daunte, trust me—earned the second-highest signing bonus of any California Baptist University player ever (name me the two MLB players from that college without looking it up and I’ll give you five dollars) and almost immediately crushed his competition with the Mighty Mussels. A promotion to Cedar Rapids cooled his stats (in only two starts), so, again, Culpepper’s prospect status is unclear.
    Still, a 27.9 K% cannot be ignored, and Culpepper soon could rise further up this list with more impressive starts.
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo, 20, 6’1” / 160 - RHP I haven’t seen many pitchers like Alejandro Hidalgo. His command is either fine—with maybe a walk or two here or there—or it’s disastrous, completely wiping out his outing with four, five, six walks over a shockingly low inning total. When he’s on, he has a devastating fastball/changeup combo and looks lethal; when he’s not, duck. 
    Ronny Henriquez, 23, 5’10” / 155 - RHP Entering the season as a dark-horse, hipster pick to carry important major-league frames, Ronny Henriquez has stumbled through a difficult season. An elbow injury was the first culprit, then he walked everyone and their mother at AAA, and a recent oblique strain knocked him out of commission for two weeks. He’s only allowed one run since returning, but the walks are still uncharacteristically overwhelming; he’ll need to fix that issue before he can rebound on this list. 
    Matt Canterino, 25, 6’2” / 222 - RHP Matt Canterino has not thrown a competitive pitch in over a year. Given his injuries and missing innings, it would be a miracle for Canterino to become an effective starter; the bullpen is his likely future home. If shorter bursts can keep him healthy, he could dominate in that role. 
    Kyle Jones, 23, 6’1” / 200 - RHP Yet another 2022 draft pitcher, Jones isn’t quite the strikeout artist seen in his peers, but he acquires groundballs at a hefty rate while keeping his whiffs and walks around league average. This looks like a vanilla, but safe profile that could earn him under-the-radar promotions to the system’s higher levels.
     
  4. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from Dman for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (Mid-Season) + Writeups   
    System overview:
    A lot changes in half a season. Royce Lewis finally departed the prospect list nearly 6 (six!) years after the team drafted him first overall in 2017. Edouard Julien and Louie Varland also lost their prospect status, weakening the high-end of the list despite a recent influx of incredible talent. Speaking of which…
    Walker Jenkins! The Twins actually did it; they eschewed their conservative desires and simply took the best player available at number 5: a sweet-swinging high-schooler who drew incredible reviews for his makeup. You could probably write a book with the superlative ink spilled about Jenkins over the past few days, but there's a good reason for that: he’s a stud. He immediately gives the team a fascinating, dynamic top three of Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and himself. He hasn’t even been signed yet, so let’s not get carried away, but it’s certainly an exciting time for the Twins system.
    Which, I think, is the strongest it’s been in a few years. The team is now undeniably at the heart of the pitching movement, churning out and improving arms at a breakneck pace, making their pitching prospects that much more exciting. There are about four or five legitimately impressive arms in the system drafted in 2022, and with about 60 pitchers taken in this draft, a few more are certainly on their way. It’s madness. But it’s a good kind of madness. 
    I’ve done something different with this list. As you’ll see, batters and pitchers are separated—something I’ve always felt should be done given the differences between the two. This is especially true these days, as any arm with one or two interesting characteristics is millimeters away from breaking out; hitters don’t currently enjoy such an advantage. Here’s the list:
    Hitters:
    Brooks Lee, 22, 5’11” / 205 - SS Now that Royce Lewis is finally no longer a prospect (for the first time since 2017!), Brooks Lee takes over as the best prospect in Minnesota’s system. There’s a lot to like in his tools; his defense isn’t consistently excellent at shortstop—he’s missing the kind of raw athletic force that, say, Carlos Correa possesses—but he’s nimble enough to make plenty of wow plays and could stick at the position in the majors. If not, he’ll be fine at third or second. The Twins appear dead-set on getting him reps here, as he’s barely started anywhere else in 2023. 
    Offensively, he’ll likely hit, but his bat isn’t bulletproof. He doesn’t own any one overwhelming attribute, but he does most things pretty well and should never embarrass himself with poor swing decisions. Overall, he looks a lot like Marcus Semien with a little less pop—but I will warn that the lack of consistent game power is a concern. Really, though, most knocks feel like extreme nit-picking for a 22-year-old holding his own at AA in his first full year in organized ball. He’ll be fine and should join the Twins sometime in 2024.
    Emmanuel Rodriguez, 20, 5’10” / 210 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez is a lesson in two parts: one, that monthly stat-worrying over prospects is often foolish; and slack should be handed to players returning from major surgery. Rodriguez spent April and May striking out at Gallo-ian rates before deflating his whiffs to palatable levels; he’s punched out at a 25.5% clip since June started. And while that cutoff is as arbitrary as any, I think it’s clear that Rodriguez is far more comfortable at the plate these days than when the season started.
    He still has laughable power as his swing-as-hard-as-humanly-possible approach yields monster homers and titanic bullets shot all around the field, offering welts to fielders who stand in their way. The whiffs will probably always be present, though, as he has a habit of running deep counts. If he continues to evolve, he could be the toolsy stud center fielder of the future for the Twins. The bust potential is high, though.
    Walker Jenkins, 18, 6’3” / 190 - OF Surprise! After blowing smoke around Jacob Gonzalez for a few months, the Twins took the sane route and drafted an excellent high school prospect. I’ll repeat the common refrain here; Jenkins could have gone 1st in any normal draft, and the Twins are deeply fortunate to have such an impact talent in their farm system.
    It’s a little silly trying to rank recently-selected players alongside pros with hundreds of at-bats under their belt, but you have to put the guy somewhere, and I thought right behind Emmanuel Rodriguez was the best choice. I don’t really have a good reason for this choice; he can move up quickly with early success.
    -------------------------
    Matt Wallner, 25, 6’5” / 220 - OF The man who just cannot find a roster spot. Matt Wallner is the antithesis of Max Kepler: he’s going to swing hard, clobber a lot of baseballs, and play bumbling, clumsy defense in right field. We’ve seen his style of play work at times, as apparent by his little MLB playing time this year, but his extreme contact deficiency will spell ugly hitting streaks, and I worry what major-league pitchers are going to do to him once they become comfortable. Still, he rakes. His max exit velocity is already elite, and it’s not impossible to imagine an Austin Riley-like metamorphosis from hulking slugger to well-rounded nuclear offensive force.
    Defensively, Wallner is going to cost the Twins runs. He may earn some back with his arm—a true bazooka that will vex greedy baserunners, or just keep them stationary in fear—but the dropoff from Kepler to Wallner will be obvious. Minnesota’s favor towards flyball pitchers, and their insistence on playing Kepler and Gallo may keep him hidden on the periphery longer than most have the stomach for.
    Tanner Schobel, 22, 5’9” / 170 - 2B/3B Tanner Schobel is something of a throwback to the 2000s Twins: a slick do-it-all infielder with above-average speed and a good chance at becoming a roughly 2 WAR player for more years than you realize. He’s even added more ISO (in a pitcher’s league!) as his extended play with Cedar Rapids has been powerful. The thump may not be a mirage; Schobel slugged .689 his sophomore season at Virginia Tech. He loads up like Eugenio Saurez, allowing the ball to travel a little further than most before the full power of his torque releases, usually in a punishing manner (to the ball).
    Defensively, Schobel has mostly split time between second and third—his two most natural positions. He could potentially play shortstop, but that position has seen a lot of Noah Miller and Jose Salas, making it difficult for Schobel to earn playing time there. Overall, Schobel fits a likeable infielder mold that many good-to-great players have thrived in.
    -------------------------
    Yasser Mercedes, 18, 6’2” / 175 - OF An expensive international signing from a few years ago, Yasser Mercedes showcased a dynamic offensive profile in 2022 before completely falling off a cliff in his first taste of stateside ball. Was he a victim of untrustworthy DSL stats? Is this a fluke? It’s far too early to tell; for now he’ll stay stagnant in my prospect list. 
    Austin Martin, 24, 6’0” / 185 - SS/OF Oh what a fall for Austin Martin. You know the story by now: his flaming college performance capitulated immediately after the Blue Jays drafted him, and now the Twins are looking to get him back in the groove. 2022 was almost a complete loss, but Martin flashed life in September, and had a respectable enough AFL to soften his fall from grace.
    Frustratingly, an injury knocked Martin out of commission until a few days ago, when he finally popped back up on the Saints’ roster. A strong showing could earn him a quick promotion, as Royce Lewis is currently on the mend well until August; José Miranda took his place but could be shuffled if his bat doesn’t turn around. Hopefully Martin finds the minimum power needed to become a quality major-league bat, because his potential is of a classic two-hole batter, slashing hits across the field while stealing at whim. 
    Luke Keaschall, 20, 6’1” / 190 - INF The Twins selected Luke Keaschall—an infielder out of Arizona State—with their second-round pick in 2023. Plenty of excellent alumnus call that college home, and Keaschall could join them soon, as he absolutely smoked PAC-12 pitching with a .353/.443/.725 slashline. We’ll understand Keaschall more as a prospect in time, so consider this ranking very loose; he could move up or down easily. 
    Noah Miller, 20, 5’11” / 190 - SS Alright, I was probably wrong about Noah Miller. I grasped tightly onto his excellent strikeout-to-walk rate in 2022, but now that has evaporated, leaving a powerless, on-base-less profile only buoyed by his excellent shortstop defense. He added a tinge of power in 2023, upping his ISO almost .030 points up to .094, but that hasn’t been enough to save his hitting, and infielders who hit like this need a legendary glove to stick around in MLB for any serious period of time. 
    Noah Cardenas, 23, 5’11” / 195 - C/1B I still cannot fathom why Noah Cardenas is not more well-received as a prospect. He’s hitting for a 129 wRC+ with the Kernels—as a catcher, mind you—after crushing A ball with similar vigor. His pop is more in doubles than homers, but he can take a walk like no one’s business, and that kind of plate control should translate well as he progresses up through the minors.
    The bugaboo: his defense. The Twins know this, and often spell time at 1st and DH (although Andrew Cossetti’s presence feeds into this decision as well). We don’t have public catching defensive metrics, but Eric Longenhagen rated him a 30-grade defender, and I’m willing to believe in his assessment. Still, the Twins were able to turn Mitch Garver into a workable defensive catcher—and Ryan Jeffers wasn’t a lock to stay at catcher either—so it’s very possible that Cardenas follows those two and blossoms into an everyday player. 
    Danny De Andrade, 19, 5’11” / 190 - SS We’re finally seeing Danny De Andrade playing in full-season ball and the results have been… whelming. He’s walked a fair amount, but the power is merely ok, and he’s probably not going to play shortstop long-term. Still, this is a 19-year-old; picking on him too much seems like an unwise decision. He should rise up this list further with time. 
    Jose Salas, 20, 6’0” / 191 - INF At this point, it’s unclear what Jose Salas does well. He’s in the middle of a dreadful repetition of A+ ball in which his slashline is so porous that I don’t even want to type it out. You don’t need to look it up; it’s bad. Normally this kind of performance would take a player completely off the list, but prospect evaluators swore he was around a 45 FV player coming into the year, and I’ll offer some slack in this regard. It won’t last long unless something changes quickly. 
    Kala’i Rosario, 21, 6’0” / 205 - OF It’s been an impressive rebound for Kala’i Rosario, who wandered the prospect desert after being selected in the 2020 draft. Once a pure power threat, Rosario has improved in each stat of his triple slash-line, giving him a mean offensive profile that Midwest pitchers haven’t figured out yet. He even sliced a few points off his strikeout rate. 
    Yet the hit tool remains shaky. There are major leaguers who can make it work with a swing-hard-and-maybe-something-good-will-happen approach, but it’s a wasteland of batters who pitchers figured out quickly; whether Rosario is any different will be seen shortly. He should see a promotion to AA soon, and his immense power could carry him to the majors. 
    -------------------------
    Andrew Cossetti, 23, 5’10” / 215 - C/1B Andrew Cossetti mashed A-ball with a hilarious .330/.462/.607 slashline before the Twins showed mercy on poor Florida State League arms, sending the menace to Cedar Rapids. His offense has cooled, but he still settled into a firmly above-average performance—especially for a catcher holding a .262 BABIP. He often spends time at 1st also, perhaps signalling Minnesota’s thoughts on his ability to stick as a backstop, but the bat may be real, and that’s enough to make Cossetti an exciting name to watch. 
    Jose Rodriguez, 18, 6’2” / 196 - OF Jose Rodriguez popped 13 homers in an impressive somehow-young-for-the-level DSL debut and is now hitting for a 93 wRC+ with the FCL Twins. Like Mercedes, the question regarding untrustworthy DSL numbers exists here, but I’ll give Rodriguez some benefit of the doubt considering his absurd youth and small sample of plate appearances at his new level. 
    Yunior Severino, 23, 6’0” / 189 - 2B/3B This is now the third season in a row that Yunior Severino has mashed the ball; his profile still scares the crap out of me. He makes his bread with power and walks, but the walks have dropped off since he reached AA, and we’re left with a high ISO/high BABIP batting line that, to me, seems unsustainable outside the Texas League. Maybe that’s unfair, but there’s also probably a reason the team has been slow to send him to AAA. 
    DaShawn Kiersey Jr., 26, 6’0” / 195 - OF Is this a toolsy outfielder finally breaking out, or an old-for-the-level batter picking on pitchers who don’t know any better? Who knows—and the truth probably lies outside my black-and-white dichotomy—but, there’s no way to say it any other way: DaShawn Kiersey Jr. is raking.
    His season under-the-hood looks largely the same as 2022, save for a nearly .040 point bump in ISO, but Kiersey Jr. has already clobbered nine homers; it took him three minor league seasons after being drafted to hit his first longball. Throw in game-altering stolen base potential, and Kiersey Jr. is a compelling late-breakout outfielder who’ll need to claw past some other uber-talented players if he ever sees the majors. He’s blistered the ball since June started, turning in a .347/.407/.579 slash with seven steals.
    Ben Ross, 22, 6’0” / 180 - INF If you want a guy who can rake across the field, Ben Ross is your guy. He’s bopped 13 homers in a notorious pitchers league, all while playing at 1st base, shortstop, 3rd base, left field, center field, and right field (he played second last year, but not this year). Whether he’s adept at all these positions or merely a warm body capable of moonlighting at them will be seen, but the profile is certainly fascinating. He could probably catch if need be. 
    Misael Urbina, 21, 5’10” / 190 - OF Misael Urbina is continuing his every-other-year pattern of not hitting. It appeared he bounced back nicely after a truly awful 2021 season, but not one number of his A+ slashline starts with a “.3” and, yeah, that’s not gonna play. The talent is still evident, but smooth sailing it has not been, and I worry that Urbina is not going to live up to the promise he showed in 2019.
    Aaron Sabato, 24, 6’2” / 230 - 1B It’s been a molasses-slow movement through the system for the 2020 1st-round selection. He hasn’t lived up to the hype he saw out of college, but—somehow—he’s dutifully earned promotions and usually turns in above-average performances after becoming acclimated to his competition. That’s not what you want from a 1st-round pick, but there’s still a very real chance Sabato can contribute to the major-league team.
    Pitchers:
    Marco Raya, 20, 6’0” / 170 - RHP The recently promoted Marco Raya represents Minnesota’s best shot at a top-of-the-rotation arm. That isn’t to say that he’s a lock to dominate—and, indeed, undervalued arms like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have proven that the best MLB pitchers aren’t always the well-known guys—but, if anyone here is a betting man, Raya would be the favored horse. He attacks batters with an ideal vertical fastball and a pair of devastating breaking balls, known to bring hitters to their knees if they swing improperly.
    Despite being over three years younger than the average competition at A+ ball, Raya smoked hitters, punching out nearly 30% of batters faced while chopping two percentage points off his walk rate from last year. It’s difficult to parse whether this was Raya just being plain better than these hitters, as the Twins capped his innings total in his starts at four, but the numbers are hard to ignore, and the team may be off-setting their conservatism with an aggressive promotion to the Wind Surge. The Texas League is known for hitting; good luck to Raya with his new competition. 
    David Festa, 23, 6’6” / 185 - RHP There’s a strong argument for David Festa as the better pitching prospect, and, in the end, Raya won by a sliver. This is no knock on Festa; the Seton Hall product followed a now well-paved road set by the Falvey Twins, as he almost immediately enjoyed and sustained a four-tick velocity bump. The strikeouts soon came. 
    With effective offerings in his sharp slider and surprisingly effective changeup (surprising only in that every pitching prospect has a “developing” cambio), Festa has impressive peripherals at AA, even if the walks have trended up with subsequent promotions. He was recently added to the Futures Game roster, and could see time with the Twins in 2024 if the current glut of 40-man options prove insufficient. 
    -------------------------
    Connor Prielipp, 22, 6’2” / 210 - LHP Almost a year after the Twins selected him, Connor Prielipp remains a mystery. He made exactly one start for the Kernels before hitting the IL, shuttled off to the grand nothingness that is the Twins’ prospect injury list, only evident through occasional tweets and whispers. The team finally ended his season, giving us 1 (one) start and no new knowledge on what Prielipp could become.
    It’s frustrating given Prielipp’s potentially dominant slider; a healthy Prielipp could easily be one of the best prospects in Minnesota’s system, but he can now only claim a combined 34 ⅔ innings between his time at Alabama and in pro ball. What will eventually become of the 22-year-old is just as unclear as when the Twins drafted him in 2022. 
    Charlee Soto, 17, 6’5” / 197 - RHP If you built a pitcher in a lab, this is what he would look like—6 foot 5 inches with a big fastball and yeah, you get the idea. Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs described his heater as sink-oriented, which does differentiate him from your typical ride/carry guy so coveted by MLB teams these days.
    Like Walker, ranking Soto is a fool’s errand. He’s even younger than your typical high schooler at 17, and I doubt we’ll understand Soto more as a prospect for at least a few years.
    -------------------------
    Simeon Woods Richardson, 22, 6’3” / 210 - RHP Disastrous. Following a minor stabilizing season at AA and AAA last year, Simeon Woods Richardson is imploding in 2023. His K-BB% is 3.7%, far far far below the ground level acceptable for even a below-average major-league arm. 
    This is nothing like the pitcher the Twins expected to receive in 2021—and he’s so far removed from his performance at any part of his minor league career that an injury is the only real explanation for his troubles. Minnesota pulled this same thing with Jordan Balazovic in 2022, allowing him to take drastic lumps while recovering from an injury, but at least Balazovic still had the Ks; Woods Richardson has nothing. With other arms clearly ahead of him in the depth chart, Woods Richardson’s path to the majors appears blocked, or at least heavily guarded.
    Jordan Balazovic, 24, 6’5” / 215 - RHP I think Jordan Balazvoic has been ranked differently in each list I’ve made, and I don’t think that’s a good thing. He has rebounded nicely from his putrid 2022 season, and parlayed a strikeout/walk oriented AAA performance into… a BABIP-aided 1.80 ERA over 10 major-league innings. No, I don’t get it either.
    There’s legitimate upside, though, with Balazovic’s killer vertical fastball/curve approach that could transform him into the new Griffin Jax. That may be a disappointment from the height of his prospect days in 2018 and 2019, but Jax is a valuable piece on the Twins; hopefully Balazovic will be as well. 
    Blayne Enlow, 24, 6’3” / 170 (doubtful, but it’s what Fangraphs says) - RHP Risen from prospect ashes like the phoenix of old, Blayne Enlow might actually be a major-league arm. After being DFA’d and left out to dry last year, Enlow remained a Twin, crushing AA while halving his walk rate and adding a few more strikeouts to the mix. The promotion to AAA came soon.
    His time with the Saints hasn’t been as fruitful, but 17 ⅓ innings is a small sample, and I’m willing to bet on a future where Enlow can find an effective role in the majors. 
    Brent Headrick, 25, 6’6” / 235 - LHP I still don’t really know what to make of Brent Headrick. He has a tremendous and a disastrous fastball, leading me to believe that he’s going to be a reliever long-term, not a starter. His height, odd arm action, and command should secure him a spot on the team in some capacity, but that fastball problem is dire, and it may not be easy to fix. Headrick gets a leg-up on other, similar pitchers because of his major-league readiness. 
    Cory Lewis, 22, 6’5” / 220 - RHP One of Minnesota’s many interesting pitchers from the 2022 draft, Cory Lewis has been a buzzsaw. There’s nothing overwhelming about his profile, but he can command the hell out of his fastball and slider while occasionally tossing in a knuckleball, just for fun. 
    Lewis’ ordinary draft stock, and his status as a developed college arm makes it difficult to decipher his undeniable dominance; I’ll keep him here for now—right in the middle of the pitcher melee that separates the best pitching prospects in the system from the rest of the herd. This is not a slight. Minnesota has proven wise in turning arms like Lewis into quality major leaguers, so this isn’t your normal piece of the scrap pile of young pitchers.
    Andrew Morris, 21, 6’0” / 195 - RHP Andrew Morris hasn’t been as overwhelming as his 2022 draftee peers, but he owns a potential outlier offering, and that buoys his profile while making him a real prospect. The pitch? A carry-monster fastball that usually sits in the lower 90s but can scratch 95—something that Bryce Miller has proven can dominate by itself. Throw in a solid slider, and Morris could easily be yet another college breakout arm for the Twins. 
    Zebby Matthews, 23, 6’5” / 225 - RHP Zebby Matthews tore up the Florida State League with Maddux-like dominance, creating an air of excitement around the Western Carolina University product, before a promotion to Cedar Rapids shot that down. His xFIP is still fine, but his strikeout rate plummeted. The rest of the season will tell us who the real Matthews is.
    There’s still a lot to like in his profile; he throws six legitimate pitches with good control, and that alone could carry him to the majors. The cutter appears to be the critical offering.
    C.J. Culpepper, 21, 6’3” / 193 - RHP You could basically copy/paste the previous sentiments regarding A-ball dominance. C.J. Culpepper—no relation to Daunte, trust me—earned the second-highest signing bonus of any California Baptist University player ever (name me the two MLB players from that college without looking it up and I’ll give you five dollars) and almost immediately crushed his competition with the Mighty Mussels. A promotion to Cedar Rapids cooled his stats (in only two starts), so, again, Culpepper’s prospect status is unclear.
    Still, a 27.9 K% cannot be ignored, and Culpepper soon could rise further up this list with more impressive starts.
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo, 20, 6’1” / 160 - RHP I haven’t seen many pitchers like Alejandro Hidalgo. His command is either fine—with maybe a walk or two here or there—or it’s disastrous, completely wiping out his outing with four, five, six walks over a shockingly low inning total. When he’s on, he has a devastating fastball/changeup combo and looks lethal; when he’s not, duck. 
    Ronny Henriquez, 23, 5’10” / 155 - RHP Entering the season as a dark-horse, hipster pick to carry important major-league frames, Ronny Henriquez has stumbled through a difficult season. An elbow injury was the first culprit, then he walked everyone and their mother at AAA, and a recent oblique strain knocked him out of commission for two weeks. He’s only allowed one run since returning, but the walks are still uncharacteristically overwhelming; he’ll need to fix that issue before he can rebound on this list. 
    Matt Canterino, 25, 6’2” / 222 - RHP Matt Canterino has not thrown a competitive pitch in over a year. Given his injuries and missing innings, it would be a miracle for Canterino to become an effective starter; the bullpen is his likely future home. If shorter bursts can keep him healthy, he could dominate in that role. 
    Kyle Jones, 23, 6’1” / 200 - RHP Yet another 2022 draft pitcher, Jones isn’t quite the strikeout artist seen in his peers, but he acquires groundballs at a hefty rate while keeping his whiffs and walks around league average. This looks like a vanilla, but safe profile that could earn him under-the-radar promotions to the system’s higher levels.
     
  5. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from gman for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (Mid-Season) + Writeups   
    System overview:
    A lot changes in half a season. Royce Lewis finally departed the prospect list nearly 6 (six!) years after the team drafted him first overall in 2017. Edouard Julien and Louie Varland also lost their prospect status, weakening the high-end of the list despite a recent influx of incredible talent. Speaking of which…
    Walker Jenkins! The Twins actually did it; they eschewed their conservative desires and simply took the best player available at number 5: a sweet-swinging high-schooler who drew incredible reviews for his makeup. You could probably write a book with the superlative ink spilled about Jenkins over the past few days, but there's a good reason for that: he’s a stud. He immediately gives the team a fascinating, dynamic top three of Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and himself. He hasn’t even been signed yet, so let’s not get carried away, but it’s certainly an exciting time for the Twins system.
    Which, I think, is the strongest it’s been in a few years. The team is now undeniably at the heart of the pitching movement, churning out and improving arms at a breakneck pace, making their pitching prospects that much more exciting. There are about four or five legitimately impressive arms in the system drafted in 2022, and with about 60 pitchers taken in this draft, a few more are certainly on their way. It’s madness. But it’s a good kind of madness. 
    I’ve done something different with this list. As you’ll see, batters and pitchers are separated—something I’ve always felt should be done given the differences between the two. This is especially true these days, as any arm with one or two interesting characteristics is millimeters away from breaking out; hitters don’t currently enjoy such an advantage. Here’s the list:
    Hitters:
    Brooks Lee, 22, 5’11” / 205 - SS Now that Royce Lewis is finally no longer a prospect (for the first time since 2017!), Brooks Lee takes over as the best prospect in Minnesota’s system. There’s a lot to like in his tools; his defense isn’t consistently excellent at shortstop—he’s missing the kind of raw athletic force that, say, Carlos Correa possesses—but he’s nimble enough to make plenty of wow plays and could stick at the position in the majors. If not, he’ll be fine at third or second. The Twins appear dead-set on getting him reps here, as he’s barely started anywhere else in 2023. 
    Offensively, he’ll likely hit, but his bat isn’t bulletproof. He doesn’t own any one overwhelming attribute, but he does most things pretty well and should never embarrass himself with poor swing decisions. Overall, he looks a lot like Marcus Semien with a little less pop—but I will warn that the lack of consistent game power is a concern. Really, though, most knocks feel like extreme nit-picking for a 22-year-old holding his own at AA in his first full year in organized ball. He’ll be fine and should join the Twins sometime in 2024.
    Emmanuel Rodriguez, 20, 5’10” / 210 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez is a lesson in two parts: one, that monthly stat-worrying over prospects is often foolish; and slack should be handed to players returning from major surgery. Rodriguez spent April and May striking out at Gallo-ian rates before deflating his whiffs to palatable levels; he’s punched out at a 25.5% clip since June started. And while that cutoff is as arbitrary as any, I think it’s clear that Rodriguez is far more comfortable at the plate these days than when the season started.
    He still has laughable power as his swing-as-hard-as-humanly-possible approach yields monster homers and titanic bullets shot all around the field, offering welts to fielders who stand in their way. The whiffs will probably always be present, though, as he has a habit of running deep counts. If he continues to evolve, he could be the toolsy stud center fielder of the future for the Twins. The bust potential is high, though.
    Walker Jenkins, 18, 6’3” / 190 - OF Surprise! After blowing smoke around Jacob Gonzalez for a few months, the Twins took the sane route and drafted an excellent high school prospect. I’ll repeat the common refrain here; Jenkins could have gone 1st in any normal draft, and the Twins are deeply fortunate to have such an impact talent in their farm system.
    It’s a little silly trying to rank recently-selected players alongside pros with hundreds of at-bats under their belt, but you have to put the guy somewhere, and I thought right behind Emmanuel Rodriguez was the best choice. I don’t really have a good reason for this choice; he can move up quickly with early success.
    -------------------------
    Matt Wallner, 25, 6’5” / 220 - OF The man who just cannot find a roster spot. Matt Wallner is the antithesis of Max Kepler: he’s going to swing hard, clobber a lot of baseballs, and play bumbling, clumsy defense in right field. We’ve seen his style of play work at times, as apparent by his little MLB playing time this year, but his extreme contact deficiency will spell ugly hitting streaks, and I worry what major-league pitchers are going to do to him once they become comfortable. Still, he rakes. His max exit velocity is already elite, and it’s not impossible to imagine an Austin Riley-like metamorphosis from hulking slugger to well-rounded nuclear offensive force.
    Defensively, Wallner is going to cost the Twins runs. He may earn some back with his arm—a true bazooka that will vex greedy baserunners, or just keep them stationary in fear—but the dropoff from Kepler to Wallner will be obvious. Minnesota’s favor towards flyball pitchers, and their insistence on playing Kepler and Gallo may keep him hidden on the periphery longer than most have the stomach for.
    Tanner Schobel, 22, 5’9” / 170 - 2B/3B Tanner Schobel is something of a throwback to the 2000s Twins: a slick do-it-all infielder with above-average speed and a good chance at becoming a roughly 2 WAR player for more years than you realize. He’s even added more ISO (in a pitcher’s league!) as his extended play with Cedar Rapids has been powerful. The thump may not be a mirage; Schobel slugged .689 his sophomore season at Virginia Tech. He loads up like Eugenio Saurez, allowing the ball to travel a little further than most before the full power of his torque releases, usually in a punishing manner (to the ball).
    Defensively, Schobel has mostly split time between second and third—his two most natural positions. He could potentially play shortstop, but that position has seen a lot of Noah Miller and Jose Salas, making it difficult for Schobel to earn playing time there. Overall, Schobel fits a likeable infielder mold that many good-to-great players have thrived in.
    -------------------------
    Yasser Mercedes, 18, 6’2” / 175 - OF An expensive international signing from a few years ago, Yasser Mercedes showcased a dynamic offensive profile in 2022 before completely falling off a cliff in his first taste of stateside ball. Was he a victim of untrustworthy DSL stats? Is this a fluke? It’s far too early to tell; for now he’ll stay stagnant in my prospect list. 
    Austin Martin, 24, 6’0” / 185 - SS/OF Oh what a fall for Austin Martin. You know the story by now: his flaming college performance capitulated immediately after the Blue Jays drafted him, and now the Twins are looking to get him back in the groove. 2022 was almost a complete loss, but Martin flashed life in September, and had a respectable enough AFL to soften his fall from grace.
    Frustratingly, an injury knocked Martin out of commission until a few days ago, when he finally popped back up on the Saints’ roster. A strong showing could earn him a quick promotion, as Royce Lewis is currently on the mend well until August; José Miranda took his place but could be shuffled if his bat doesn’t turn around. Hopefully Martin finds the minimum power needed to become a quality major-league bat, because his potential is of a classic two-hole batter, slashing hits across the field while stealing at whim. 
    Luke Keaschall, 20, 6’1” / 190 - INF The Twins selected Luke Keaschall—an infielder out of Arizona State—with their second-round pick in 2023. Plenty of excellent alumnus call that college home, and Keaschall could join them soon, as he absolutely smoked PAC-12 pitching with a .353/.443/.725 slashline. We’ll understand Keaschall more as a prospect in time, so consider this ranking very loose; he could move up or down easily. 
    Noah Miller, 20, 5’11” / 190 - SS Alright, I was probably wrong about Noah Miller. I grasped tightly onto his excellent strikeout-to-walk rate in 2022, but now that has evaporated, leaving a powerless, on-base-less profile only buoyed by his excellent shortstop defense. He added a tinge of power in 2023, upping his ISO almost .030 points up to .094, but that hasn’t been enough to save his hitting, and infielders who hit like this need a legendary glove to stick around in MLB for any serious period of time. 
    Noah Cardenas, 23, 5’11” / 195 - C/1B I still cannot fathom why Noah Cardenas is not more well-received as a prospect. He’s hitting for a 129 wRC+ with the Kernels—as a catcher, mind you—after crushing A ball with similar vigor. His pop is more in doubles than homers, but he can take a walk like no one’s business, and that kind of plate control should translate well as he progresses up through the minors.
    The bugaboo: his defense. The Twins know this, and often spell time at 1st and DH (although Andrew Cossetti’s presence feeds into this decision as well). We don’t have public catching defensive metrics, but Eric Longenhagen rated him a 30-grade defender, and I’m willing to believe in his assessment. Still, the Twins were able to turn Mitch Garver into a workable defensive catcher—and Ryan Jeffers wasn’t a lock to stay at catcher either—so it’s very possible that Cardenas follows those two and blossoms into an everyday player. 
    Danny De Andrade, 19, 5’11” / 190 - SS We’re finally seeing Danny De Andrade playing in full-season ball and the results have been… whelming. He’s walked a fair amount, but the power is merely ok, and he’s probably not going to play shortstop long-term. Still, this is a 19-year-old; picking on him too much seems like an unwise decision. He should rise up this list further with time. 
    Jose Salas, 20, 6’0” / 191 - INF At this point, it’s unclear what Jose Salas does well. He’s in the middle of a dreadful repetition of A+ ball in which his slashline is so porous that I don’t even want to type it out. You don’t need to look it up; it’s bad. Normally this kind of performance would take a player completely off the list, but prospect evaluators swore he was around a 45 FV player coming into the year, and I’ll offer some slack in this regard. It won’t last long unless something changes quickly. 
    Kala’i Rosario, 21, 6’0” / 205 - OF It’s been an impressive rebound for Kala’i Rosario, who wandered the prospect desert after being selected in the 2020 draft. Once a pure power threat, Rosario has improved in each stat of his triple slash-line, giving him a mean offensive profile that Midwest pitchers haven’t figured out yet. He even sliced a few points off his strikeout rate. 
    Yet the hit tool remains shaky. There are major leaguers who can make it work with a swing-hard-and-maybe-something-good-will-happen approach, but it’s a wasteland of batters who pitchers figured out quickly; whether Rosario is any different will be seen shortly. He should see a promotion to AA soon, and his immense power could carry him to the majors. 
    -------------------------
    Andrew Cossetti, 23, 5’10” / 215 - C/1B Andrew Cossetti mashed A-ball with a hilarious .330/.462/.607 slashline before the Twins showed mercy on poor Florida State League arms, sending the menace to Cedar Rapids. His offense has cooled, but he still settled into a firmly above-average performance—especially for a catcher holding a .262 BABIP. He often spends time at 1st also, perhaps signalling Minnesota’s thoughts on his ability to stick as a backstop, but the bat may be real, and that’s enough to make Cossetti an exciting name to watch. 
    Jose Rodriguez, 18, 6’2” / 196 - OF Jose Rodriguez popped 13 homers in an impressive somehow-young-for-the-level DSL debut and is now hitting for a 93 wRC+ with the FCL Twins. Like Mercedes, the question regarding untrustworthy DSL numbers exists here, but I’ll give Rodriguez some benefit of the doubt considering his absurd youth and small sample of plate appearances at his new level. 
    Yunior Severino, 23, 6’0” / 189 - 2B/3B This is now the third season in a row that Yunior Severino has mashed the ball; his profile still scares the crap out of me. He makes his bread with power and walks, but the walks have dropped off since he reached AA, and we’re left with a high ISO/high BABIP batting line that, to me, seems unsustainable outside the Texas League. Maybe that’s unfair, but there’s also probably a reason the team has been slow to send him to AAA. 
    DaShawn Kiersey Jr., 26, 6’0” / 195 - OF Is this a toolsy outfielder finally breaking out, or an old-for-the-level batter picking on pitchers who don’t know any better? Who knows—and the truth probably lies outside my black-and-white dichotomy—but, there’s no way to say it any other way: DaShawn Kiersey Jr. is raking.
    His season under-the-hood looks largely the same as 2022, save for a nearly .040 point bump in ISO, but Kiersey Jr. has already clobbered nine homers; it took him three minor league seasons after being drafted to hit his first longball. Throw in game-altering stolen base potential, and Kiersey Jr. is a compelling late-breakout outfielder who’ll need to claw past some other uber-talented players if he ever sees the majors. He’s blistered the ball since June started, turning in a .347/.407/.579 slash with seven steals.
    Ben Ross, 22, 6’0” / 180 - INF If you want a guy who can rake across the field, Ben Ross is your guy. He’s bopped 13 homers in a notorious pitchers league, all while playing at 1st base, shortstop, 3rd base, left field, center field, and right field (he played second last year, but not this year). Whether he’s adept at all these positions or merely a warm body capable of moonlighting at them will be seen, but the profile is certainly fascinating. He could probably catch if need be. 
    Misael Urbina, 21, 5’10” / 190 - OF Misael Urbina is continuing his every-other-year pattern of not hitting. It appeared he bounced back nicely after a truly awful 2021 season, but not one number of his A+ slashline starts with a “.3” and, yeah, that’s not gonna play. The talent is still evident, but smooth sailing it has not been, and I worry that Urbina is not going to live up to the promise he showed in 2019.
    Aaron Sabato, 24, 6’2” / 230 - 1B It’s been a molasses-slow movement through the system for the 2020 1st-round selection. He hasn’t lived up to the hype he saw out of college, but—somehow—he’s dutifully earned promotions and usually turns in above-average performances after becoming acclimated to his competition. That’s not what you want from a 1st-round pick, but there’s still a very real chance Sabato can contribute to the major-league team.
    Pitchers:
    Marco Raya, 20, 6’0” / 170 - RHP The recently promoted Marco Raya represents Minnesota’s best shot at a top-of-the-rotation arm. That isn’t to say that he’s a lock to dominate—and, indeed, undervalued arms like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have proven that the best MLB pitchers aren’t always the well-known guys—but, if anyone here is a betting man, Raya would be the favored horse. He attacks batters with an ideal vertical fastball and a pair of devastating breaking balls, known to bring hitters to their knees if they swing improperly.
    Despite being over three years younger than the average competition at A+ ball, Raya smoked hitters, punching out nearly 30% of batters faced while chopping two percentage points off his walk rate from last year. It’s difficult to parse whether this was Raya just being plain better than these hitters, as the Twins capped his innings total in his starts at four, but the numbers are hard to ignore, and the team may be off-setting their conservatism with an aggressive promotion to the Wind Surge. The Texas League is known for hitting; good luck to Raya with his new competition. 
    David Festa, 23, 6’6” / 185 - RHP There’s a strong argument for David Festa as the better pitching prospect, and, in the end, Raya won by a sliver. This is no knock on Festa; the Seton Hall product followed a now well-paved road set by the Falvey Twins, as he almost immediately enjoyed and sustained a four-tick velocity bump. The strikeouts soon came. 
    With effective offerings in his sharp slider and surprisingly effective changeup (surprising only in that every pitching prospect has a “developing” cambio), Festa has impressive peripherals at AA, even if the walks have trended up with subsequent promotions. He was recently added to the Futures Game roster, and could see time with the Twins in 2024 if the current glut of 40-man options prove insufficient. 
    -------------------------
    Connor Prielipp, 22, 6’2” / 210 - LHP Almost a year after the Twins selected him, Connor Prielipp remains a mystery. He made exactly one start for the Kernels before hitting the IL, shuttled off to the grand nothingness that is the Twins’ prospect injury list, only evident through occasional tweets and whispers. The team finally ended his season, giving us 1 (one) start and no new knowledge on what Prielipp could become.
    It’s frustrating given Prielipp’s potentially dominant slider; a healthy Prielipp could easily be one of the best prospects in Minnesota’s system, but he can now only claim a combined 34 ⅔ innings between his time at Alabama and in pro ball. What will eventually become of the 22-year-old is just as unclear as when the Twins drafted him in 2022. 
    Charlee Soto, 17, 6’5” / 197 - RHP If you built a pitcher in a lab, this is what he would look like—6 foot 5 inches with a big fastball and yeah, you get the idea. Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs described his heater as sink-oriented, which does differentiate him from your typical ride/carry guy so coveted by MLB teams these days.
    Like Walker, ranking Soto is a fool’s errand. He’s even younger than your typical high schooler at 17, and I doubt we’ll understand Soto more as a prospect for at least a few years.
    -------------------------
    Simeon Woods Richardson, 22, 6’3” / 210 - RHP Disastrous. Following a minor stabilizing season at AA and AAA last year, Simeon Woods Richardson is imploding in 2023. His K-BB% is 3.7%, far far far below the ground level acceptable for even a below-average major-league arm. 
    This is nothing like the pitcher the Twins expected to receive in 2021—and he’s so far removed from his performance at any part of his minor league career that an injury is the only real explanation for his troubles. Minnesota pulled this same thing with Jordan Balazovic in 2022, allowing him to take drastic lumps while recovering from an injury, but at least Balazovic still had the Ks; Woods Richardson has nothing. With other arms clearly ahead of him in the depth chart, Woods Richardson’s path to the majors appears blocked, or at least heavily guarded.
    Jordan Balazovic, 24, 6’5” / 215 - RHP I think Jordan Balazvoic has been ranked differently in each list I’ve made, and I don’t think that’s a good thing. He has rebounded nicely from his putrid 2022 season, and parlayed a strikeout/walk oriented AAA performance into… a BABIP-aided 1.80 ERA over 10 major-league innings. No, I don’t get it either.
    There’s legitimate upside, though, with Balazovic’s killer vertical fastball/curve approach that could transform him into the new Griffin Jax. That may be a disappointment from the height of his prospect days in 2018 and 2019, but Jax is a valuable piece on the Twins; hopefully Balazovic will be as well. 
    Blayne Enlow, 24, 6’3” / 170 (doubtful, but it’s what Fangraphs says) - RHP Risen from prospect ashes like the phoenix of old, Blayne Enlow might actually be a major-league arm. After being DFA’d and left out to dry last year, Enlow remained a Twin, crushing AA while halving his walk rate and adding a few more strikeouts to the mix. The promotion to AAA came soon.
    His time with the Saints hasn’t been as fruitful, but 17 ⅓ innings is a small sample, and I’m willing to bet on a future where Enlow can find an effective role in the majors. 
    Brent Headrick, 25, 6’6” / 235 - LHP I still don’t really know what to make of Brent Headrick. He has a tremendous and a disastrous fastball, leading me to believe that he’s going to be a reliever long-term, not a starter. His height, odd arm action, and command should secure him a spot on the team in some capacity, but that fastball problem is dire, and it may not be easy to fix. Headrick gets a leg-up on other, similar pitchers because of his major-league readiness. 
    Cory Lewis, 22, 6’5” / 220 - RHP One of Minnesota’s many interesting pitchers from the 2022 draft, Cory Lewis has been a buzzsaw. There’s nothing overwhelming about his profile, but he can command the hell out of his fastball and slider while occasionally tossing in a knuckleball, just for fun. 
    Lewis’ ordinary draft stock, and his status as a developed college arm makes it difficult to decipher his undeniable dominance; I’ll keep him here for now—right in the middle of the pitcher melee that separates the best pitching prospects in the system from the rest of the herd. This is not a slight. Minnesota has proven wise in turning arms like Lewis into quality major leaguers, so this isn’t your normal piece of the scrap pile of young pitchers.
    Andrew Morris, 21, 6’0” / 195 - RHP Andrew Morris hasn’t been as overwhelming as his 2022 draftee peers, but he owns a potential outlier offering, and that buoys his profile while making him a real prospect. The pitch? A carry-monster fastball that usually sits in the lower 90s but can scratch 95—something that Bryce Miller has proven can dominate by itself. Throw in a solid slider, and Morris could easily be yet another college breakout arm for the Twins. 
    Zebby Matthews, 23, 6’5” / 225 - RHP Zebby Matthews tore up the Florida State League with Maddux-like dominance, creating an air of excitement around the Western Carolina University product, before a promotion to Cedar Rapids shot that down. His xFIP is still fine, but his strikeout rate plummeted. The rest of the season will tell us who the real Matthews is.
    There’s still a lot to like in his profile; he throws six legitimate pitches with good control, and that alone could carry him to the majors. The cutter appears to be the critical offering.
    C.J. Culpepper, 21, 6’3” / 193 - RHP You could basically copy/paste the previous sentiments regarding A-ball dominance. C.J. Culpepper—no relation to Daunte, trust me—earned the second-highest signing bonus of any California Baptist University player ever (name me the two MLB players from that college without looking it up and I’ll give you five dollars) and almost immediately crushed his competition with the Mighty Mussels. A promotion to Cedar Rapids cooled his stats (in only two starts), so, again, Culpepper’s prospect status is unclear.
    Still, a 27.9 K% cannot be ignored, and Culpepper soon could rise further up this list with more impressive starts.
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo, 20, 6’1” / 160 - RHP I haven’t seen many pitchers like Alejandro Hidalgo. His command is either fine—with maybe a walk or two here or there—or it’s disastrous, completely wiping out his outing with four, five, six walks over a shockingly low inning total. When he’s on, he has a devastating fastball/changeup combo and looks lethal; when he’s not, duck. 
    Ronny Henriquez, 23, 5’10” / 155 - RHP Entering the season as a dark-horse, hipster pick to carry important major-league frames, Ronny Henriquez has stumbled through a difficult season. An elbow injury was the first culprit, then he walked everyone and their mother at AAA, and a recent oblique strain knocked him out of commission for two weeks. He’s only allowed one run since returning, but the walks are still uncharacteristically overwhelming; he’ll need to fix that issue before he can rebound on this list. 
    Matt Canterino, 25, 6’2” / 222 - RHP Matt Canterino has not thrown a competitive pitch in over a year. Given his injuries and missing innings, it would be a miracle for Canterino to become an effective starter; the bullpen is his likely future home. If shorter bursts can keep him healthy, he could dominate in that role. 
    Kyle Jones, 23, 6’1” / 200 - RHP Yet another 2022 draft pitcher, Jones isn’t quite the strikeout artist seen in his peers, but he acquires groundballs at a hefty rate while keeping his whiffs and walks around league average. This looks like a vanilla, but safe profile that could earn him under-the-radar promotions to the system’s higher levels.
     
  6. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from Danchat for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (Mid-Season) + Writeups   
    System overview:
    A lot changes in half a season. Royce Lewis finally departed the prospect list nearly 6 (six!) years after the team drafted him first overall in 2017. Edouard Julien and Louie Varland also lost their prospect status, weakening the high-end of the list despite a recent influx of incredible talent. Speaking of which…
    Walker Jenkins! The Twins actually did it; they eschewed their conservative desires and simply took the best player available at number 5: a sweet-swinging high-schooler who drew incredible reviews for his makeup. You could probably write a book with the superlative ink spilled about Jenkins over the past few days, but there's a good reason for that: he’s a stud. He immediately gives the team a fascinating, dynamic top three of Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and himself. He hasn’t even been signed yet, so let’s not get carried away, but it’s certainly an exciting time for the Twins system.
    Which, I think, is the strongest it’s been in a few years. The team is now undeniably at the heart of the pitching movement, churning out and improving arms at a breakneck pace, making their pitching prospects that much more exciting. There are about four or five legitimately impressive arms in the system drafted in 2022, and with about 60 pitchers taken in this draft, a few more are certainly on their way. It’s madness. But it’s a good kind of madness. 
    I’ve done something different with this list. As you’ll see, batters and pitchers are separated—something I’ve always felt should be done given the differences between the two. This is especially true these days, as any arm with one or two interesting characteristics is millimeters away from breaking out; hitters don’t currently enjoy such an advantage. Here’s the list:
    Hitters:
    Brooks Lee, 22, 5’11” / 205 - SS Now that Royce Lewis is finally no longer a prospect (for the first time since 2017!), Brooks Lee takes over as the best prospect in Minnesota’s system. There’s a lot to like in his tools; his defense isn’t consistently excellent at shortstop—he’s missing the kind of raw athletic force that, say, Carlos Correa possesses—but he’s nimble enough to make plenty of wow plays and could stick at the position in the majors. If not, he’ll be fine at third or second. The Twins appear dead-set on getting him reps here, as he’s barely started anywhere else in 2023. 
    Offensively, he’ll likely hit, but his bat isn’t bulletproof. He doesn’t own any one overwhelming attribute, but he does most things pretty well and should never embarrass himself with poor swing decisions. Overall, he looks a lot like Marcus Semien with a little less pop—but I will warn that the lack of consistent game power is a concern. Really, though, most knocks feel like extreme nit-picking for a 22-year-old holding his own at AA in his first full year in organized ball. He’ll be fine and should join the Twins sometime in 2024.
    Emmanuel Rodriguez, 20, 5’10” / 210 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez is a lesson in two parts: one, that monthly stat-worrying over prospects is often foolish; and slack should be handed to players returning from major surgery. Rodriguez spent April and May striking out at Gallo-ian rates before deflating his whiffs to palatable levels; he’s punched out at a 25.5% clip since June started. And while that cutoff is as arbitrary as any, I think it’s clear that Rodriguez is far more comfortable at the plate these days than when the season started.
    He still has laughable power as his swing-as-hard-as-humanly-possible approach yields monster homers and titanic bullets shot all around the field, offering welts to fielders who stand in their way. The whiffs will probably always be present, though, as he has a habit of running deep counts. If he continues to evolve, he could be the toolsy stud center fielder of the future for the Twins. The bust potential is high, though.
    Walker Jenkins, 18, 6’3” / 190 - OF Surprise! After blowing smoke around Jacob Gonzalez for a few months, the Twins took the sane route and drafted an excellent high school prospect. I’ll repeat the common refrain here; Jenkins could have gone 1st in any normal draft, and the Twins are deeply fortunate to have such an impact talent in their farm system.
    It’s a little silly trying to rank recently-selected players alongside pros with hundreds of at-bats under their belt, but you have to put the guy somewhere, and I thought right behind Emmanuel Rodriguez was the best choice. I don’t really have a good reason for this choice; he can move up quickly with early success.
    -------------------------
    Matt Wallner, 25, 6’5” / 220 - OF The man who just cannot find a roster spot. Matt Wallner is the antithesis of Max Kepler: he’s going to swing hard, clobber a lot of baseballs, and play bumbling, clumsy defense in right field. We’ve seen his style of play work at times, as apparent by his little MLB playing time this year, but his extreme contact deficiency will spell ugly hitting streaks, and I worry what major-league pitchers are going to do to him once they become comfortable. Still, he rakes. His max exit velocity is already elite, and it’s not impossible to imagine an Austin Riley-like metamorphosis from hulking slugger to well-rounded nuclear offensive force.
    Defensively, Wallner is going to cost the Twins runs. He may earn some back with his arm—a true bazooka that will vex greedy baserunners, or just keep them stationary in fear—but the dropoff from Kepler to Wallner will be obvious. Minnesota’s favor towards flyball pitchers, and their insistence on playing Kepler and Gallo may keep him hidden on the periphery longer than most have the stomach for.
    Tanner Schobel, 22, 5’9” / 170 - 2B/3B Tanner Schobel is something of a throwback to the 2000s Twins: a slick do-it-all infielder with above-average speed and a good chance at becoming a roughly 2 WAR player for more years than you realize. He’s even added more ISO (in a pitcher’s league!) as his extended play with Cedar Rapids has been powerful. The thump may not be a mirage; Schobel slugged .689 his sophomore season at Virginia Tech. He loads up like Eugenio Saurez, allowing the ball to travel a little further than most before the full power of his torque releases, usually in a punishing manner (to the ball).
    Defensively, Schobel has mostly split time between second and third—his two most natural positions. He could potentially play shortstop, but that position has seen a lot of Noah Miller and Jose Salas, making it difficult for Schobel to earn playing time there. Overall, Schobel fits a likeable infielder mold that many good-to-great players have thrived in.
    -------------------------
    Yasser Mercedes, 18, 6’2” / 175 - OF An expensive international signing from a few years ago, Yasser Mercedes showcased a dynamic offensive profile in 2022 before completely falling off a cliff in his first taste of stateside ball. Was he a victim of untrustworthy DSL stats? Is this a fluke? It’s far too early to tell; for now he’ll stay stagnant in my prospect list. 
    Austin Martin, 24, 6’0” / 185 - SS/OF Oh what a fall for Austin Martin. You know the story by now: his flaming college performance capitulated immediately after the Blue Jays drafted him, and now the Twins are looking to get him back in the groove. 2022 was almost a complete loss, but Martin flashed life in September, and had a respectable enough AFL to soften his fall from grace.
    Frustratingly, an injury knocked Martin out of commission until a few days ago, when he finally popped back up on the Saints’ roster. A strong showing could earn him a quick promotion, as Royce Lewis is currently on the mend well until August; José Miranda took his place but could be shuffled if his bat doesn’t turn around. Hopefully Martin finds the minimum power needed to become a quality major-league bat, because his potential is of a classic two-hole batter, slashing hits across the field while stealing at whim. 
    Luke Keaschall, 20, 6’1” / 190 - INF The Twins selected Luke Keaschall—an infielder out of Arizona State—with their second-round pick in 2023. Plenty of excellent alumnus call that college home, and Keaschall could join them soon, as he absolutely smoked PAC-12 pitching with a .353/.443/.725 slashline. We’ll understand Keaschall more as a prospect in time, so consider this ranking very loose; he could move up or down easily. 
    Noah Miller, 20, 5’11” / 190 - SS Alright, I was probably wrong about Noah Miller. I grasped tightly onto his excellent strikeout-to-walk rate in 2022, but now that has evaporated, leaving a powerless, on-base-less profile only buoyed by his excellent shortstop defense. He added a tinge of power in 2023, upping his ISO almost .030 points up to .094, but that hasn’t been enough to save his hitting, and infielders who hit like this need a legendary glove to stick around in MLB for any serious period of time. 
    Noah Cardenas, 23, 5’11” / 195 - C/1B I still cannot fathom why Noah Cardenas is not more well-received as a prospect. He’s hitting for a 129 wRC+ with the Kernels—as a catcher, mind you—after crushing A ball with similar vigor. His pop is more in doubles than homers, but he can take a walk like no one’s business, and that kind of plate control should translate well as he progresses up through the minors.
    The bugaboo: his defense. The Twins know this, and often spell time at 1st and DH (although Andrew Cossetti’s presence feeds into this decision as well). We don’t have public catching defensive metrics, but Eric Longenhagen rated him a 30-grade defender, and I’m willing to believe in his assessment. Still, the Twins were able to turn Mitch Garver into a workable defensive catcher—and Ryan Jeffers wasn’t a lock to stay at catcher either—so it’s very possible that Cardenas follows those two and blossoms into an everyday player. 
    Danny De Andrade, 19, 5’11” / 190 - SS We’re finally seeing Danny De Andrade playing in full-season ball and the results have been… whelming. He’s walked a fair amount, but the power is merely ok, and he’s probably not going to play shortstop long-term. Still, this is a 19-year-old; picking on him too much seems like an unwise decision. He should rise up this list further with time. 
    Jose Salas, 20, 6’0” / 191 - INF At this point, it’s unclear what Jose Salas does well. He’s in the middle of a dreadful repetition of A+ ball in which his slashline is so porous that I don’t even want to type it out. You don’t need to look it up; it’s bad. Normally this kind of performance would take a player completely off the list, but prospect evaluators swore he was around a 45 FV player coming into the year, and I’ll offer some slack in this regard. It won’t last long unless something changes quickly. 
    Kala’i Rosario, 21, 6’0” / 205 - OF It’s been an impressive rebound for Kala’i Rosario, who wandered the prospect desert after being selected in the 2020 draft. Once a pure power threat, Rosario has improved in each stat of his triple slash-line, giving him a mean offensive profile that Midwest pitchers haven’t figured out yet. He even sliced a few points off his strikeout rate. 
    Yet the hit tool remains shaky. There are major leaguers who can make it work with a swing-hard-and-maybe-something-good-will-happen approach, but it’s a wasteland of batters who pitchers figured out quickly; whether Rosario is any different will be seen shortly. He should see a promotion to AA soon, and his immense power could carry him to the majors. 
    -------------------------
    Andrew Cossetti, 23, 5’10” / 215 - C/1B Andrew Cossetti mashed A-ball with a hilarious .330/.462/.607 slashline before the Twins showed mercy on poor Florida State League arms, sending the menace to Cedar Rapids. His offense has cooled, but he still settled into a firmly above-average performance—especially for a catcher holding a .262 BABIP. He often spends time at 1st also, perhaps signalling Minnesota’s thoughts on his ability to stick as a backstop, but the bat may be real, and that’s enough to make Cossetti an exciting name to watch. 
    Jose Rodriguez, 18, 6’2” / 196 - OF Jose Rodriguez popped 13 homers in an impressive somehow-young-for-the-level DSL debut and is now hitting for a 93 wRC+ with the FCL Twins. Like Mercedes, the question regarding untrustworthy DSL numbers exists here, but I’ll give Rodriguez some benefit of the doubt considering his absurd youth and small sample of plate appearances at his new level. 
    Yunior Severino, 23, 6’0” / 189 - 2B/3B This is now the third season in a row that Yunior Severino has mashed the ball; his profile still scares the crap out of me. He makes his bread with power and walks, but the walks have dropped off since he reached AA, and we’re left with a high ISO/high BABIP batting line that, to me, seems unsustainable outside the Texas League. Maybe that’s unfair, but there’s also probably a reason the team has been slow to send him to AAA. 
    DaShawn Kiersey Jr., 26, 6’0” / 195 - OF Is this a toolsy outfielder finally breaking out, or an old-for-the-level batter picking on pitchers who don’t know any better? Who knows—and the truth probably lies outside my black-and-white dichotomy—but, there’s no way to say it any other way: DaShawn Kiersey Jr. is raking.
    His season under-the-hood looks largely the same as 2022, save for a nearly .040 point bump in ISO, but Kiersey Jr. has already clobbered nine homers; it took him three minor league seasons after being drafted to hit his first longball. Throw in game-altering stolen base potential, and Kiersey Jr. is a compelling late-breakout outfielder who’ll need to claw past some other uber-talented players if he ever sees the majors. He’s blistered the ball since June started, turning in a .347/.407/.579 slash with seven steals.
    Ben Ross, 22, 6’0” / 180 - INF If you want a guy who can rake across the field, Ben Ross is your guy. He’s bopped 13 homers in a notorious pitchers league, all while playing at 1st base, shortstop, 3rd base, left field, center field, and right field (he played second last year, but not this year). Whether he’s adept at all these positions or merely a warm body capable of moonlighting at them will be seen, but the profile is certainly fascinating. He could probably catch if need be. 
    Misael Urbina, 21, 5’10” / 190 - OF Misael Urbina is continuing his every-other-year pattern of not hitting. It appeared he bounced back nicely after a truly awful 2021 season, but not one number of his A+ slashline starts with a “.3” and, yeah, that’s not gonna play. The talent is still evident, but smooth sailing it has not been, and I worry that Urbina is not going to live up to the promise he showed in 2019.
    Aaron Sabato, 24, 6’2” / 230 - 1B It’s been a molasses-slow movement through the system for the 2020 1st-round selection. He hasn’t lived up to the hype he saw out of college, but—somehow—he’s dutifully earned promotions and usually turns in above-average performances after becoming acclimated to his competition. That’s not what you want from a 1st-round pick, but there’s still a very real chance Sabato can contribute to the major-league team.
    Pitchers:
    Marco Raya, 20, 6’0” / 170 - RHP The recently promoted Marco Raya represents Minnesota’s best shot at a top-of-the-rotation arm. That isn’t to say that he’s a lock to dominate—and, indeed, undervalued arms like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have proven that the best MLB pitchers aren’t always the well-known guys—but, if anyone here is a betting man, Raya would be the favored horse. He attacks batters with an ideal vertical fastball and a pair of devastating breaking balls, known to bring hitters to their knees if they swing improperly.
    Despite being over three years younger than the average competition at A+ ball, Raya smoked hitters, punching out nearly 30% of batters faced while chopping two percentage points off his walk rate from last year. It’s difficult to parse whether this was Raya just being plain better than these hitters, as the Twins capped his innings total in his starts at four, but the numbers are hard to ignore, and the team may be off-setting their conservatism with an aggressive promotion to the Wind Surge. The Texas League is known for hitting; good luck to Raya with his new competition. 
    David Festa, 23, 6’6” / 185 - RHP There’s a strong argument for David Festa as the better pitching prospect, and, in the end, Raya won by a sliver. This is no knock on Festa; the Seton Hall product followed a now well-paved road set by the Falvey Twins, as he almost immediately enjoyed and sustained a four-tick velocity bump. The strikeouts soon came. 
    With effective offerings in his sharp slider and surprisingly effective changeup (surprising only in that every pitching prospect has a “developing” cambio), Festa has impressive peripherals at AA, even if the walks have trended up with subsequent promotions. He was recently added to the Futures Game roster, and could see time with the Twins in 2024 if the current glut of 40-man options prove insufficient. 
    -------------------------
    Connor Prielipp, 22, 6’2” / 210 - LHP Almost a year after the Twins selected him, Connor Prielipp remains a mystery. He made exactly one start for the Kernels before hitting the IL, shuttled off to the grand nothingness that is the Twins’ prospect injury list, only evident through occasional tweets and whispers. The team finally ended his season, giving us 1 (one) start and no new knowledge on what Prielipp could become.
    It’s frustrating given Prielipp’s potentially dominant slider; a healthy Prielipp could easily be one of the best prospects in Minnesota’s system, but he can now only claim a combined 34 ⅔ innings between his time at Alabama and in pro ball. What will eventually become of the 22-year-old is just as unclear as when the Twins drafted him in 2022. 
    Charlee Soto, 17, 6’5” / 197 - RHP If you built a pitcher in a lab, this is what he would look like—6 foot 5 inches with a big fastball and yeah, you get the idea. Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs described his heater as sink-oriented, which does differentiate him from your typical ride/carry guy so coveted by MLB teams these days.
    Like Walker, ranking Soto is a fool’s errand. He’s even younger than your typical high schooler at 17, and I doubt we’ll understand Soto more as a prospect for at least a few years.
    -------------------------
    Simeon Woods Richardson, 22, 6’3” / 210 - RHP Disastrous. Following a minor stabilizing season at AA and AAA last year, Simeon Woods Richardson is imploding in 2023. His K-BB% is 3.7%, far far far below the ground level acceptable for even a below-average major-league arm. 
    This is nothing like the pitcher the Twins expected to receive in 2021—and he’s so far removed from his performance at any part of his minor league career that an injury is the only real explanation for his troubles. Minnesota pulled this same thing with Jordan Balazovic in 2022, allowing him to take drastic lumps while recovering from an injury, but at least Balazovic still had the Ks; Woods Richardson has nothing. With other arms clearly ahead of him in the depth chart, Woods Richardson’s path to the majors appears blocked, or at least heavily guarded.
    Jordan Balazovic, 24, 6’5” / 215 - RHP I think Jordan Balazvoic has been ranked differently in each list I’ve made, and I don’t think that’s a good thing. He has rebounded nicely from his putrid 2022 season, and parlayed a strikeout/walk oriented AAA performance into… a BABIP-aided 1.80 ERA over 10 major-league innings. No, I don’t get it either.
    There’s legitimate upside, though, with Balazovic’s killer vertical fastball/curve approach that could transform him into the new Griffin Jax. That may be a disappointment from the height of his prospect days in 2018 and 2019, but Jax is a valuable piece on the Twins; hopefully Balazovic will be as well. 
    Blayne Enlow, 24, 6’3” / 170 (doubtful, but it’s what Fangraphs says) - RHP Risen from prospect ashes like the phoenix of old, Blayne Enlow might actually be a major-league arm. After being DFA’d and left out to dry last year, Enlow remained a Twin, crushing AA while halving his walk rate and adding a few more strikeouts to the mix. The promotion to AAA came soon.
    His time with the Saints hasn’t been as fruitful, but 17 ⅓ innings is a small sample, and I’m willing to bet on a future where Enlow can find an effective role in the majors. 
    Brent Headrick, 25, 6’6” / 235 - LHP I still don’t really know what to make of Brent Headrick. He has a tremendous and a disastrous fastball, leading me to believe that he’s going to be a reliever long-term, not a starter. His height, odd arm action, and command should secure him a spot on the team in some capacity, but that fastball problem is dire, and it may not be easy to fix. Headrick gets a leg-up on other, similar pitchers because of his major-league readiness. 
    Cory Lewis, 22, 6’5” / 220 - RHP One of Minnesota’s many interesting pitchers from the 2022 draft, Cory Lewis has been a buzzsaw. There’s nothing overwhelming about his profile, but he can command the hell out of his fastball and slider while occasionally tossing in a knuckleball, just for fun. 
    Lewis’ ordinary draft stock, and his status as a developed college arm makes it difficult to decipher his undeniable dominance; I’ll keep him here for now—right in the middle of the pitcher melee that separates the best pitching prospects in the system from the rest of the herd. This is not a slight. Minnesota has proven wise in turning arms like Lewis into quality major leaguers, so this isn’t your normal piece of the scrap pile of young pitchers.
    Andrew Morris, 21, 6’0” / 195 - RHP Andrew Morris hasn’t been as overwhelming as his 2022 draftee peers, but he owns a potential outlier offering, and that buoys his profile while making him a real prospect. The pitch? A carry-monster fastball that usually sits in the lower 90s but can scratch 95—something that Bryce Miller has proven can dominate by itself. Throw in a solid slider, and Morris could easily be yet another college breakout arm for the Twins. 
    Zebby Matthews, 23, 6’5” / 225 - RHP Zebby Matthews tore up the Florida State League with Maddux-like dominance, creating an air of excitement around the Western Carolina University product, before a promotion to Cedar Rapids shot that down. His xFIP is still fine, but his strikeout rate plummeted. The rest of the season will tell us who the real Matthews is.
    There’s still a lot to like in his profile; he throws six legitimate pitches with good control, and that alone could carry him to the majors. The cutter appears to be the critical offering.
    C.J. Culpepper, 21, 6’3” / 193 - RHP You could basically copy/paste the previous sentiments regarding A-ball dominance. C.J. Culpepper—no relation to Daunte, trust me—earned the second-highest signing bonus of any California Baptist University player ever (name me the two MLB players from that college without looking it up and I’ll give you five dollars) and almost immediately crushed his competition with the Mighty Mussels. A promotion to Cedar Rapids cooled his stats (in only two starts), so, again, Culpepper’s prospect status is unclear.
    Still, a 27.9 K% cannot be ignored, and Culpepper soon could rise further up this list with more impressive starts.
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo, 20, 6’1” / 160 - RHP I haven’t seen many pitchers like Alejandro Hidalgo. His command is either fine—with maybe a walk or two here or there—or it’s disastrous, completely wiping out his outing with four, five, six walks over a shockingly low inning total. When he’s on, he has a devastating fastball/changeup combo and looks lethal; when he’s not, duck. 
    Ronny Henriquez, 23, 5’10” / 155 - RHP Entering the season as a dark-horse, hipster pick to carry important major-league frames, Ronny Henriquez has stumbled through a difficult season. An elbow injury was the first culprit, then he walked everyone and their mother at AAA, and a recent oblique strain knocked him out of commission for two weeks. He’s only allowed one run since returning, but the walks are still uncharacteristically overwhelming; he’ll need to fix that issue before he can rebound on this list. 
    Matt Canterino, 25, 6’2” / 222 - RHP Matt Canterino has not thrown a competitive pitch in over a year. Given his injuries and missing innings, it would be a miracle for Canterino to become an effective starter; the bullpen is his likely future home. If shorter bursts can keep him healthy, he could dominate in that role. 
    Kyle Jones, 23, 6’1” / 200 - RHP Yet another 2022 draft pitcher, Jones isn’t quite the strikeout artist seen in his peers, but he acquires groundballs at a hefty rate while keeping his whiffs and walks around league average. This looks like a vanilla, but safe profile that could earn him under-the-radar promotions to the system’s higher levels.
     
  7. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from DocBauer for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (Mid-Season) + Writeups   
    System overview:
    A lot changes in half a season. Royce Lewis finally departed the prospect list nearly 6 (six!) years after the team drafted him first overall in 2017. Edouard Julien and Louie Varland also lost their prospect status, weakening the high-end of the list despite a recent influx of incredible talent. Speaking of which…
    Walker Jenkins! The Twins actually did it; they eschewed their conservative desires and simply took the best player available at number 5: a sweet-swinging high-schooler who drew incredible reviews for his makeup. You could probably write a book with the superlative ink spilled about Jenkins over the past few days, but there's a good reason for that: he’s a stud. He immediately gives the team a fascinating, dynamic top three of Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and himself. He hasn’t even been signed yet, so let’s not get carried away, but it’s certainly an exciting time for the Twins system.
    Which, I think, is the strongest it’s been in a few years. The team is now undeniably at the heart of the pitching movement, churning out and improving arms at a breakneck pace, making their pitching prospects that much more exciting. There are about four or five legitimately impressive arms in the system drafted in 2022, and with about 60 pitchers taken in this draft, a few more are certainly on their way. It’s madness. But it’s a good kind of madness. 
    I’ve done something different with this list. As you’ll see, batters and pitchers are separated—something I’ve always felt should be done given the differences between the two. This is especially true these days, as any arm with one or two interesting characteristics is millimeters away from breaking out; hitters don’t currently enjoy such an advantage. Here’s the list:
    Hitters:
    Brooks Lee, 22, 5’11” / 205 - SS Now that Royce Lewis is finally no longer a prospect (for the first time since 2017!), Brooks Lee takes over as the best prospect in Minnesota’s system. There’s a lot to like in his tools; his defense isn’t consistently excellent at shortstop—he’s missing the kind of raw athletic force that, say, Carlos Correa possesses—but he’s nimble enough to make plenty of wow plays and could stick at the position in the majors. If not, he’ll be fine at third or second. The Twins appear dead-set on getting him reps here, as he’s barely started anywhere else in 2023. 
    Offensively, he’ll likely hit, but his bat isn’t bulletproof. He doesn’t own any one overwhelming attribute, but he does most things pretty well and should never embarrass himself with poor swing decisions. Overall, he looks a lot like Marcus Semien with a little less pop—but I will warn that the lack of consistent game power is a concern. Really, though, most knocks feel like extreme nit-picking for a 22-year-old holding his own at AA in his first full year in organized ball. He’ll be fine and should join the Twins sometime in 2024.
    Emmanuel Rodriguez, 20, 5’10” / 210 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez is a lesson in two parts: one, that monthly stat-worrying over prospects is often foolish; and slack should be handed to players returning from major surgery. Rodriguez spent April and May striking out at Gallo-ian rates before deflating his whiffs to palatable levels; he’s punched out at a 25.5% clip since June started. And while that cutoff is as arbitrary as any, I think it’s clear that Rodriguez is far more comfortable at the plate these days than when the season started.
    He still has laughable power as his swing-as-hard-as-humanly-possible approach yields monster homers and titanic bullets shot all around the field, offering welts to fielders who stand in their way. The whiffs will probably always be present, though, as he has a habit of running deep counts. If he continues to evolve, he could be the toolsy stud center fielder of the future for the Twins. The bust potential is high, though.
    Walker Jenkins, 18, 6’3” / 190 - OF Surprise! After blowing smoke around Jacob Gonzalez for a few months, the Twins took the sane route and drafted an excellent high school prospect. I’ll repeat the common refrain here; Jenkins could have gone 1st in any normal draft, and the Twins are deeply fortunate to have such an impact talent in their farm system.
    It’s a little silly trying to rank recently-selected players alongside pros with hundreds of at-bats under their belt, but you have to put the guy somewhere, and I thought right behind Emmanuel Rodriguez was the best choice. I don’t really have a good reason for this choice; he can move up quickly with early success.
    -------------------------
    Matt Wallner, 25, 6’5” / 220 - OF The man who just cannot find a roster spot. Matt Wallner is the antithesis of Max Kepler: he’s going to swing hard, clobber a lot of baseballs, and play bumbling, clumsy defense in right field. We’ve seen his style of play work at times, as apparent by his little MLB playing time this year, but his extreme contact deficiency will spell ugly hitting streaks, and I worry what major-league pitchers are going to do to him once they become comfortable. Still, he rakes. His max exit velocity is already elite, and it’s not impossible to imagine an Austin Riley-like metamorphosis from hulking slugger to well-rounded nuclear offensive force.
    Defensively, Wallner is going to cost the Twins runs. He may earn some back with his arm—a true bazooka that will vex greedy baserunners, or just keep them stationary in fear—but the dropoff from Kepler to Wallner will be obvious. Minnesota’s favor towards flyball pitchers, and their insistence on playing Kepler and Gallo may keep him hidden on the periphery longer than most have the stomach for.
    Tanner Schobel, 22, 5’9” / 170 - 2B/3B Tanner Schobel is something of a throwback to the 2000s Twins: a slick do-it-all infielder with above-average speed and a good chance at becoming a roughly 2 WAR player for more years than you realize. He’s even added more ISO (in a pitcher’s league!) as his extended play with Cedar Rapids has been powerful. The thump may not be a mirage; Schobel slugged .689 his sophomore season at Virginia Tech. He loads up like Eugenio Saurez, allowing the ball to travel a little further than most before the full power of his torque releases, usually in a punishing manner (to the ball).
    Defensively, Schobel has mostly split time between second and third—his two most natural positions. He could potentially play shortstop, but that position has seen a lot of Noah Miller and Jose Salas, making it difficult for Schobel to earn playing time there. Overall, Schobel fits a likeable infielder mold that many good-to-great players have thrived in.
    -------------------------
    Yasser Mercedes, 18, 6’2” / 175 - OF An expensive international signing from a few years ago, Yasser Mercedes showcased a dynamic offensive profile in 2022 before completely falling off a cliff in his first taste of stateside ball. Was he a victim of untrustworthy DSL stats? Is this a fluke? It’s far too early to tell; for now he’ll stay stagnant in my prospect list. 
    Austin Martin, 24, 6’0” / 185 - SS/OF Oh what a fall for Austin Martin. You know the story by now: his flaming college performance capitulated immediately after the Blue Jays drafted him, and now the Twins are looking to get him back in the groove. 2022 was almost a complete loss, but Martin flashed life in September, and had a respectable enough AFL to soften his fall from grace.
    Frustratingly, an injury knocked Martin out of commission until a few days ago, when he finally popped back up on the Saints’ roster. A strong showing could earn him a quick promotion, as Royce Lewis is currently on the mend well until August; José Miranda took his place but could be shuffled if his bat doesn’t turn around. Hopefully Martin finds the minimum power needed to become a quality major-league bat, because his potential is of a classic two-hole batter, slashing hits across the field while stealing at whim. 
    Luke Keaschall, 20, 6’1” / 190 - INF The Twins selected Luke Keaschall—an infielder out of Arizona State—with their second-round pick in 2023. Plenty of excellent alumnus call that college home, and Keaschall could join them soon, as he absolutely smoked PAC-12 pitching with a .353/.443/.725 slashline. We’ll understand Keaschall more as a prospect in time, so consider this ranking very loose; he could move up or down easily. 
    Noah Miller, 20, 5’11” / 190 - SS Alright, I was probably wrong about Noah Miller. I grasped tightly onto his excellent strikeout-to-walk rate in 2022, but now that has evaporated, leaving a powerless, on-base-less profile only buoyed by his excellent shortstop defense. He added a tinge of power in 2023, upping his ISO almost .030 points up to .094, but that hasn’t been enough to save his hitting, and infielders who hit like this need a legendary glove to stick around in MLB for any serious period of time. 
    Noah Cardenas, 23, 5’11” / 195 - C/1B I still cannot fathom why Noah Cardenas is not more well-received as a prospect. He’s hitting for a 129 wRC+ with the Kernels—as a catcher, mind you—after crushing A ball with similar vigor. His pop is more in doubles than homers, but he can take a walk like no one’s business, and that kind of plate control should translate well as he progresses up through the minors.
    The bugaboo: his defense. The Twins know this, and often spell time at 1st and DH (although Andrew Cossetti’s presence feeds into this decision as well). We don’t have public catching defensive metrics, but Eric Longenhagen rated him a 30-grade defender, and I’m willing to believe in his assessment. Still, the Twins were able to turn Mitch Garver into a workable defensive catcher—and Ryan Jeffers wasn’t a lock to stay at catcher either—so it’s very possible that Cardenas follows those two and blossoms into an everyday player. 
    Danny De Andrade, 19, 5’11” / 190 - SS We’re finally seeing Danny De Andrade playing in full-season ball and the results have been… whelming. He’s walked a fair amount, but the power is merely ok, and he’s probably not going to play shortstop long-term. Still, this is a 19-year-old; picking on him too much seems like an unwise decision. He should rise up this list further with time. 
    Jose Salas, 20, 6’0” / 191 - INF At this point, it’s unclear what Jose Salas does well. He’s in the middle of a dreadful repetition of A+ ball in which his slashline is so porous that I don’t even want to type it out. You don’t need to look it up; it’s bad. Normally this kind of performance would take a player completely off the list, but prospect evaluators swore he was around a 45 FV player coming into the year, and I’ll offer some slack in this regard. It won’t last long unless something changes quickly. 
    Kala’i Rosario, 21, 6’0” / 205 - OF It’s been an impressive rebound for Kala’i Rosario, who wandered the prospect desert after being selected in the 2020 draft. Once a pure power threat, Rosario has improved in each stat of his triple slash-line, giving him a mean offensive profile that Midwest pitchers haven’t figured out yet. He even sliced a few points off his strikeout rate. 
    Yet the hit tool remains shaky. There are major leaguers who can make it work with a swing-hard-and-maybe-something-good-will-happen approach, but it’s a wasteland of batters who pitchers figured out quickly; whether Rosario is any different will be seen shortly. He should see a promotion to AA soon, and his immense power could carry him to the majors. 
    -------------------------
    Andrew Cossetti, 23, 5’10” / 215 - C/1B Andrew Cossetti mashed A-ball with a hilarious .330/.462/.607 slashline before the Twins showed mercy on poor Florida State League arms, sending the menace to Cedar Rapids. His offense has cooled, but he still settled into a firmly above-average performance—especially for a catcher holding a .262 BABIP. He often spends time at 1st also, perhaps signalling Minnesota’s thoughts on his ability to stick as a backstop, but the bat may be real, and that’s enough to make Cossetti an exciting name to watch. 
    Jose Rodriguez, 18, 6’2” / 196 - OF Jose Rodriguez popped 13 homers in an impressive somehow-young-for-the-level DSL debut and is now hitting for a 93 wRC+ with the FCL Twins. Like Mercedes, the question regarding untrustworthy DSL numbers exists here, but I’ll give Rodriguez some benefit of the doubt considering his absurd youth and small sample of plate appearances at his new level. 
    Yunior Severino, 23, 6’0” / 189 - 2B/3B This is now the third season in a row that Yunior Severino has mashed the ball; his profile still scares the crap out of me. He makes his bread with power and walks, but the walks have dropped off since he reached AA, and we’re left with a high ISO/high BABIP batting line that, to me, seems unsustainable outside the Texas League. Maybe that’s unfair, but there’s also probably a reason the team has been slow to send him to AAA. 
    DaShawn Kiersey Jr., 26, 6’0” / 195 - OF Is this a toolsy outfielder finally breaking out, or an old-for-the-level batter picking on pitchers who don’t know any better? Who knows—and the truth probably lies outside my black-and-white dichotomy—but, there’s no way to say it any other way: DaShawn Kiersey Jr. is raking.
    His season under-the-hood looks largely the same as 2022, save for a nearly .040 point bump in ISO, but Kiersey Jr. has already clobbered nine homers; it took him three minor league seasons after being drafted to hit his first longball. Throw in game-altering stolen base potential, and Kiersey Jr. is a compelling late-breakout outfielder who’ll need to claw past some other uber-talented players if he ever sees the majors. He’s blistered the ball since June started, turning in a .347/.407/.579 slash with seven steals.
    Ben Ross, 22, 6’0” / 180 - INF If you want a guy who can rake across the field, Ben Ross is your guy. He’s bopped 13 homers in a notorious pitchers league, all while playing at 1st base, shortstop, 3rd base, left field, center field, and right field (he played second last year, but not this year). Whether he’s adept at all these positions or merely a warm body capable of moonlighting at them will be seen, but the profile is certainly fascinating. He could probably catch if need be. 
    Misael Urbina, 21, 5’10” / 190 - OF Misael Urbina is continuing his every-other-year pattern of not hitting. It appeared he bounced back nicely after a truly awful 2021 season, but not one number of his A+ slashline starts with a “.3” and, yeah, that’s not gonna play. The talent is still evident, but smooth sailing it has not been, and I worry that Urbina is not going to live up to the promise he showed in 2019.
    Aaron Sabato, 24, 6’2” / 230 - 1B It’s been a molasses-slow movement through the system for the 2020 1st-round selection. He hasn’t lived up to the hype he saw out of college, but—somehow—he’s dutifully earned promotions and usually turns in above-average performances after becoming acclimated to his competition. That’s not what you want from a 1st-round pick, but there’s still a very real chance Sabato can contribute to the major-league team.
    Pitchers:
    Marco Raya, 20, 6’0” / 170 - RHP The recently promoted Marco Raya represents Minnesota’s best shot at a top-of-the-rotation arm. That isn’t to say that he’s a lock to dominate—and, indeed, undervalued arms like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have proven that the best MLB pitchers aren’t always the well-known guys—but, if anyone here is a betting man, Raya would be the favored horse. He attacks batters with an ideal vertical fastball and a pair of devastating breaking balls, known to bring hitters to their knees if they swing improperly.
    Despite being over three years younger than the average competition at A+ ball, Raya smoked hitters, punching out nearly 30% of batters faced while chopping two percentage points off his walk rate from last year. It’s difficult to parse whether this was Raya just being plain better than these hitters, as the Twins capped his innings total in his starts at four, but the numbers are hard to ignore, and the team may be off-setting their conservatism with an aggressive promotion to the Wind Surge. The Texas League is known for hitting; good luck to Raya with his new competition. 
    David Festa, 23, 6’6” / 185 - RHP There’s a strong argument for David Festa as the better pitching prospect, and, in the end, Raya won by a sliver. This is no knock on Festa; the Seton Hall product followed a now well-paved road set by the Falvey Twins, as he almost immediately enjoyed and sustained a four-tick velocity bump. The strikeouts soon came. 
    With effective offerings in his sharp slider and surprisingly effective changeup (surprising only in that every pitching prospect has a “developing” cambio), Festa has impressive peripherals at AA, even if the walks have trended up with subsequent promotions. He was recently added to the Futures Game roster, and could see time with the Twins in 2024 if the current glut of 40-man options prove insufficient. 
    -------------------------
    Connor Prielipp, 22, 6’2” / 210 - LHP Almost a year after the Twins selected him, Connor Prielipp remains a mystery. He made exactly one start for the Kernels before hitting the IL, shuttled off to the grand nothingness that is the Twins’ prospect injury list, only evident through occasional tweets and whispers. The team finally ended his season, giving us 1 (one) start and no new knowledge on what Prielipp could become.
    It’s frustrating given Prielipp’s potentially dominant slider; a healthy Prielipp could easily be one of the best prospects in Minnesota’s system, but he can now only claim a combined 34 ⅔ innings between his time at Alabama and in pro ball. What will eventually become of the 22-year-old is just as unclear as when the Twins drafted him in 2022. 
    Charlee Soto, 17, 6’5” / 197 - RHP If you built a pitcher in a lab, this is what he would look like—6 foot 5 inches with a big fastball and yeah, you get the idea. Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs described his heater as sink-oriented, which does differentiate him from your typical ride/carry guy so coveted by MLB teams these days.
    Like Walker, ranking Soto is a fool’s errand. He’s even younger than your typical high schooler at 17, and I doubt we’ll understand Soto more as a prospect for at least a few years.
    -------------------------
    Simeon Woods Richardson, 22, 6’3” / 210 - RHP Disastrous. Following a minor stabilizing season at AA and AAA last year, Simeon Woods Richardson is imploding in 2023. His K-BB% is 3.7%, far far far below the ground level acceptable for even a below-average major-league arm. 
    This is nothing like the pitcher the Twins expected to receive in 2021—and he’s so far removed from his performance at any part of his minor league career that an injury is the only real explanation for his troubles. Minnesota pulled this same thing with Jordan Balazovic in 2022, allowing him to take drastic lumps while recovering from an injury, but at least Balazovic still had the Ks; Woods Richardson has nothing. With other arms clearly ahead of him in the depth chart, Woods Richardson’s path to the majors appears blocked, or at least heavily guarded.
    Jordan Balazovic, 24, 6’5” / 215 - RHP I think Jordan Balazvoic has been ranked differently in each list I’ve made, and I don’t think that’s a good thing. He has rebounded nicely from his putrid 2022 season, and parlayed a strikeout/walk oriented AAA performance into… a BABIP-aided 1.80 ERA over 10 major-league innings. No, I don’t get it either.
    There’s legitimate upside, though, with Balazovic’s killer vertical fastball/curve approach that could transform him into the new Griffin Jax. That may be a disappointment from the height of his prospect days in 2018 and 2019, but Jax is a valuable piece on the Twins; hopefully Balazovic will be as well. 
    Blayne Enlow, 24, 6’3” / 170 (doubtful, but it’s what Fangraphs says) - RHP Risen from prospect ashes like the phoenix of old, Blayne Enlow might actually be a major-league arm. After being DFA’d and left out to dry last year, Enlow remained a Twin, crushing AA while halving his walk rate and adding a few more strikeouts to the mix. The promotion to AAA came soon.
    His time with the Saints hasn’t been as fruitful, but 17 ⅓ innings is a small sample, and I’m willing to bet on a future where Enlow can find an effective role in the majors. 
    Brent Headrick, 25, 6’6” / 235 - LHP I still don’t really know what to make of Brent Headrick. He has a tremendous and a disastrous fastball, leading me to believe that he’s going to be a reliever long-term, not a starter. His height, odd arm action, and command should secure him a spot on the team in some capacity, but that fastball problem is dire, and it may not be easy to fix. Headrick gets a leg-up on other, similar pitchers because of his major-league readiness. 
    Cory Lewis, 22, 6’5” / 220 - RHP One of Minnesota’s many interesting pitchers from the 2022 draft, Cory Lewis has been a buzzsaw. There’s nothing overwhelming about his profile, but he can command the hell out of his fastball and slider while occasionally tossing in a knuckleball, just for fun. 
    Lewis’ ordinary draft stock, and his status as a developed college arm makes it difficult to decipher his undeniable dominance; I’ll keep him here for now—right in the middle of the pitcher melee that separates the best pitching prospects in the system from the rest of the herd. This is not a slight. Minnesota has proven wise in turning arms like Lewis into quality major leaguers, so this isn’t your normal piece of the scrap pile of young pitchers.
    Andrew Morris, 21, 6’0” / 195 - RHP Andrew Morris hasn’t been as overwhelming as his 2022 draftee peers, but he owns a potential outlier offering, and that buoys his profile while making him a real prospect. The pitch? A carry-monster fastball that usually sits in the lower 90s but can scratch 95—something that Bryce Miller has proven can dominate by itself. Throw in a solid slider, and Morris could easily be yet another college breakout arm for the Twins. 
    Zebby Matthews, 23, 6’5” / 225 - RHP Zebby Matthews tore up the Florida State League with Maddux-like dominance, creating an air of excitement around the Western Carolina University product, before a promotion to Cedar Rapids shot that down. His xFIP is still fine, but his strikeout rate plummeted. The rest of the season will tell us who the real Matthews is.
    There’s still a lot to like in his profile; he throws six legitimate pitches with good control, and that alone could carry him to the majors. The cutter appears to be the critical offering.
    C.J. Culpepper, 21, 6’3” / 193 - RHP You could basically copy/paste the previous sentiments regarding A-ball dominance. C.J. Culpepper—no relation to Daunte, trust me—earned the second-highest signing bonus of any California Baptist University player ever (name me the two MLB players from that college without looking it up and I’ll give you five dollars) and almost immediately crushed his competition with the Mighty Mussels. A promotion to Cedar Rapids cooled his stats (in only two starts), so, again, Culpepper’s prospect status is unclear.
    Still, a 27.9 K% cannot be ignored, and Culpepper soon could rise further up this list with more impressive starts.
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo, 20, 6’1” / 160 - RHP I haven’t seen many pitchers like Alejandro Hidalgo. His command is either fine—with maybe a walk or two here or there—or it’s disastrous, completely wiping out his outing with four, five, six walks over a shockingly low inning total. When he’s on, he has a devastating fastball/changeup combo and looks lethal; when he’s not, duck. 
    Ronny Henriquez, 23, 5’10” / 155 - RHP Entering the season as a dark-horse, hipster pick to carry important major-league frames, Ronny Henriquez has stumbled through a difficult season. An elbow injury was the first culprit, then he walked everyone and their mother at AAA, and a recent oblique strain knocked him out of commission for two weeks. He’s only allowed one run since returning, but the walks are still uncharacteristically overwhelming; he’ll need to fix that issue before he can rebound on this list. 
    Matt Canterino, 25, 6’2” / 222 - RHP Matt Canterino has not thrown a competitive pitch in over a year. Given his injuries and missing innings, it would be a miracle for Canterino to become an effective starter; the bullpen is his likely future home. If shorter bursts can keep him healthy, he could dominate in that role. 
    Kyle Jones, 23, 6’1” / 200 - RHP Yet another 2022 draft pitcher, Jones isn’t quite the strikeout artist seen in his peers, but he acquires groundballs at a hefty rate while keeping his whiffs and walks around league average. This looks like a vanilla, but safe profile that could earn him under-the-radar promotions to the system’s higher levels.
     
  8. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from Minny505 for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (January) + Writeups   
    It's prospect season again. Pitchers and catchers will soon report, so our effort at Twinsdaily to cover the minor leagues will fire up once again, and that includes our prospect rankings.
    The system looks surprisingly strong. Despite a flurry of trades over the last 18 months or so, the Twins still have a top nucleus of elite talent, and the franchise enjoys solid upper-level pitching depth. They're a little low on gamechangers at the elite positions—centerfield and shortstop—but so is basically every system, and Minnesota could easily cover that deficiency with a healthy season from Emmanuel Rodriguez and continued development from their two DSL stars. Remember: tier matters more than ranking.
    Royce Lewis 6’2” / 200 (Prev: 1) Age: 23
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Nothing has changed my view of Royce Lewis since I last updated my list. He’s a potentially franchise-altering talent with a frustrating lack of baseball in his recent resume. Lewis’ short playing time in 2022 was a revelation, as he checked significant boxes—his ability to play shortstop and his hitting prowess—before the brutal knee injury cut off his time playing baseball. A much quieter batting stance appears to have unlocked his hitting potential. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do when he is healthy again.
    Brooks Lee 6’2” / 205 (Prev: 2) Age: 21
    Position: SS/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If you think Brooks Lee deserves to be in the one spot, I can’t argue with you; Lee is an incredibly safe bet to hit well, no matter where his defensive home is. Despite being drafted just seven months ago, Lee reached AA, playing in a handful of games for Wichita before calling it a season; he smoked A+ ball with a 140 wRC+. His immense hitting pedigree, combined with his lineage as a coach’s son indeed points towards an ideal makeup package that should serve him well as he transitions to big leaguer. He’ll probably impact the 2023 Twins and will undoubtedly affect the team in 2024.                                                        
    -------------------------       
    Emmanuel Rodriguez 5’10” / 210 (Prev: 4) Age: 19
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Potentially the most dynamic prospect in Minnesota’s system, Emmanuel Rodriguez’s nuclear 2022 fell violently when he tore his ACL in June. Still, Rodriguez walked an absurd 28.6% of the time while slugging .551 in a league that favors pitchers. Granted, it was just a 199 plate appearance sample. Still, I’m excited to see Rodriguez return to action healthy, and he could quickly become the Twins’ best prospect sometime next season.
    Noah Miller 6’1” / 190 (Prev: 3)    Age: 20
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A
    I am too high on Noah Miller; I will remain too high on Noah Miller until his hitting falls entirely off a cliff. Prospects who are locks to play shortstop do not grow on trees—at least none that I know—and Miller’s bat is just good enough to keep him a valuable contributor at the position. If it clicks offensively—and his strike zone awareness is already elite—we’re looking at a potential successor to Carlos Correa in a few years; he’ll need to gain more power, though.
    Marco Raya 6’1” / 170 (Prev: 8) Age: 20
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    “[Marco] Raya’s slider is Charon, come to ferry batters back to the dugout,” wrote Jeffery Paternostro for Baseball Prospectus in November—a perfect sentence. Raya carries the same risk all pitchers do—injury potential, a future in the bullpen—compounded by his smaller frame. But if he can stay healthy, Raya could vault into the top of the Twins rotation, dominating hitters with a compelling four-pitch mix and a bulldog mentality. Raya struck out 28.9% of batters over 65 innings with Fort Myers in 2022. 
    Jose Salas 6’2” / 191 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A+
    A new name! A critical, underrated addition to the Pablo López trade, Jose Salas adds another intriguing infield wrinkle to a system bursting with “people who can play shortstop,” not necessarily “shortstops.” A super young 19 in A+, Salas hit like an overwhelmed prospect, but some AFL seasoning plus an off-season of recovery could cleanse him anew. Salas hit .267/.355/.421 in A ball before his promotion in 2022. 
    Edouard Julien 6’2” / 195 (Prev: 7) Age: 23
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If this were a list of favorite prospects, Edouard Julien would be top three, potentially sitting at the top spot. What’s not to love? The lefty smoked AA Wichita with a .300/.441/.490 line and then hit—and I’m not kidding here—.400/.563/.686 in the Arizona Fall League before ending his terror on pitchers for the season. He lacks a defensive home, but a team would move Heaven and Earth to find a spot for that bat somewhere. Minnesota added him to the 40-man roster this past season; we will probably see Julien in the majors soon.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
    Connor Prielipp 6’2” / 210 (Prev: 5) Age: 22
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: n/a
    Who is John Galt Connor Prielipp? The baseball world has seen startlingly little from Prielipp, as injuries limited his time with Alabama to seven starts. Still, he owns a mid-90s fastball and a power slider when healthy; 2023 will illuminate his prospect status.
    Simeon Woods Richardson 6’3” / 210 (Prev: 6) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Maybe one of the more crucial cogs in Minnesota’s 2023 pitching machine, Simeon Woods Richardson appears well-set to impact the major league roster soon. Armed with unique fastball traits, Woods Richardson held his own in a harsh Texas League environment in 2022, then torched AAA at the end of the year for fun. He earned enough respect to make his first Twins start—a five-inning outing notable in that he’ll never have to debut again; the nerves are behind him. Still somehow just 22, Woods Richardson struck out 27% of batters in the minors last season.
    -------------------------
    Louie Varland 6’1” / 205 (Prev: 10) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Louie Varland should rank higher on this list, but something in his profile doesn’t fully click for me. His fastball is excellent—a real jumper he can use in any count because of his low angle. But none of his other pitches stood out as difference makers, turning Varland into a one-pitch pitcher. His slider and changeup command was non-existent, and batters brutalized his cutter. That’s a negative paragraph for the supposed 10th-best prospect on the team, but that’s what I’ve seen from Varland, and until it changes, I remain bearish on his starting capabilities. 
    Austin Martin 6’0” / 185 (Prev: 13) Age: 23
    Position: SS/OF
    Highest level reached: AA
    Austin Martin’s wild 2022 bounced him more than any other player around this list. After slugging a dreadful .315 in a hitter’s league, Martin crushed in the Arizona Fall League, showcasing his older, successful mechanics in a dramatic redemption arc. He’s not a shortstop—that much is obvious now, but if his bat is back, then the Twins could have a quality 3-win utility player capable of playing a variety of positions. 2023 will be a crucial test. 
    Matt Wallner 6’5” / 220 (Prev: 9) Age: 25
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: MLB
    It’s hard to hold 18 major league games against a guy, but Matt Wallner’s Adventures in the Outfield stunk enough to deeply sour me on any notions of him replacing Max Kepler soon. The Twins appear to agree. With approximately 30,000 outfielders ahead of him, it would take a series of great tragedies before Wallner earns significant MLB playing time soon. Still, he shaved points off his strikeout rate in 2022—the biggest knock against him—and he could ride his outstanding power stroke to an elongated playing career. 
    Yasser Mercedes 6’2” / 175 (Prev: 11) Age: 18
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Yasser Mercedes did things as a 17-year-old that teenagers aren’t supposed to do. Yes, it was in the noisy environment that is the DSL, but 30 steals with a .555 slugging percentage is impressive, no matter the level. Mercedes will likely play in rookie ball in 2023, and I imagine his prospect package will become much more apparent in 2024 when he’ll still be just 19. 
    David Festa 6’6” / 185 (Prev: 20) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A+
    One of the most “pop-uppiest” prospect in the Twins system in 2022, David Festa commands a tremendous fastball/slider combo that torched hitters in the low minors. Although his numbers dropped following a promotion to A+ ball, Festa punctuated his season with a 10-strikeout performance over six shutout innings in a playoff game against the Cubs. We will see how Festa pitches in a tougher environment in 2023.
    Misael Urbina 6’0” / 190 (Prev: 12) Age: 20
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Misael Urbina is an excellent example of why prospect evaluations are a snapshot in time, not the law in written form: he couldn’t hit for any power in 2021 but re-played A ball again in 2022 and showcased a much-improved power stroke. Soon to be 21, Urbina should unleash even more strength this year, potentially shooting him further up the list. 
    -------------------------
    Brent Headrick 6’6” / 235 (Prev: 14) Age: 25
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A surprise 40-man addition, Brent Headrick’s numbers are perhaps more impressive than his raw tools. His breaker is a bit of a looping pitch, which MLB hitters–especially righties—could lay off of, but his fastball lands perfectly at the top of the zone, and his command is good enough that the breaker shape may not matter. He will probably impact the Twins in 2023—though it’s unclear in what capacity—and he could become a regular, reliable lefty swingman. 
    Jordan Balazovic 6’5” / 215 (Prev: 15) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AAA
    How do you rank Jordan Balazovic? Long considered the promised arm, delivered by our wonderful friends Up North, Balazovic faced a nightmare 2022 season, one so hideous that I don’t even want to post any stats from it. The Twins claimed he was healthy, but such a shocking drop-off in performance is almost unbelievable; hopefully 2023 will be a kinder year for Balazovic.
    Ronny Henriquez 5’10” / 155 (Prev: 17) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    One of the more exciting arms in Minnesota’s system, Ronny Henriquez spent a few months getting bullied by AAA hitters before turning around and delivering an adequate July through end-of-season performance. Armed with a fastball, slider, and changeup, Henriquez will pepper well-commanded off-speed pitches around the zone, hopefully enticing the hitter to bite before the end of the at-bat. His issue? A fastball that ends up either 1. In the heart of the strike zone 2. In the gap (if he’s lucky) 3. In the hands of a fan sitting in right-center field. Whether Henriquez can improve his heater will determine his success at the major league level. 
    Noah Cardenas 6’1” / 195 (Prev: 18) Age: 23
    Position: C
    Highest level reached: A
    I am still trying to understand why Noah Cardenas is not more well-regarded as a prospect. Catchers who hit for a 146 wRC+ aren’t common, and while he was older than your average A-ball hitter, I feel confident that Cardenas should continue to hit as he elevates through the system. Although catcher development is often strange, so he may run into weird pitfalls and unusual traps that keep him from improving linearly. 
    Jose Rodriguez 6’2” / 196 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 17
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Like Yasser Mercedes, Jose Rodriguez is a 17-year-old whose only time in professional baseball is in the DSL—a sign that all hype should involve grains of salt and the such. Still, as a player even younger than most DSL hitters, Rodriguez pounded 13 homers and slugged over .600. He’s about as far away from the majors as possible. Still, you should keep his name in mind over the next few years as a potential big-league powerhouse. 
    Cody Laweryson 6’4” / 205 (Prev: 23) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A personal favorite, Cody Laweryson prefers to trick hitters with his pitching motion: a lanky, swan-like delivery that combines the sudden violence of Carter Capps with the grace of Joe Ryan. Lawyerson crushed AA, striking out over 30% of hitters while holding an ERA just over 1.00. The Twins left him unprotected in the rule 5 draft, and no other team claimed him, giving Laweryson another year to prove that his play isn’t a fluke.
    Cole Sands 6’3” / 215 (Prev: 16) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Cole Sands owns one of the nastiest pitches in Minnesota’s system: a whirling breaking ball, here to alter planes and send batters home wondering if they even saw the pitch. The issue? The offering moves so much that Sands has difficulty commanding the pitch. He mixes in an effective splitter—which actually outperformed his breaker by xwOBA during his time in the majors—but his fastball drags down his profile. Sands might be a kitchen sink reliever if he doesn’t improve his heater. 
    Blayne Enlow 6’3” / 170 (Prev: 14) Age: 23
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    Blayne Enlow pitched in an entire season for the first time since 2019, and his results were mixed. He struck out 24.8% of hitters—which is good—but walked 11.6% of them—which is not good. The Twins DFA’d him earlier in the offseason, but after no team claimed him, Enlow will have another year in the system to prove he was worth his high draft pick. 
    Tanner Schobel 5’10” / 170 (Prev: 27) Age: 21
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: A
    The Twins sent Tanner Schobel on the fast track, pushing their 2022 2nd-round pick to A Ball, where he held his own. Although lacking in power, Schobel could carve out a career as a contact/OBP/defense threat capable of putting together a 3 WAR season if everything works out; many teams could use a player like that. 
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo 6’1” / 160 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    A newcomer, Alexander Hidalgo joined the Twins in the Gio Urshela trade. The Angels handled him with kid gloves, as he didn’t touch 40 innings despite making 10 starts. The owner of a plus changeup, Hidalgo’s pitch mix is otherwise unimpressive, but he could grow into an off-speed specialist if he finds more consistency with his curveball; his fastball lacks crucial characteristics. 
    Matt Canterino 6’2” / 222 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    I highly doubt that Matt Canterino will even become an effective starter for the Twins. His minor league innings total is barren, and the righty looks to be standing in a long line of Rice products driven into the ground by an indifferent coaching staff. Still—and this is the only thing keeping him on the list—his electric stuff could allow him to live as a 1-2 inning reliever.
    Alex Isola 6’1” / 215 (Prev: 24) Age: 24
    Position: C/1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A 29th-round pick, Alex Isola has hit well at every step in his minor league journey. He owns a well-rounded hitting package, trading off a touch of power for excellent plate control (13.0% walk rate vs. 18.2% K rate at AA), and could find himself playing some first base for the Twins if a few injuries take out key players. 
    Cesar Lares 6’0” / 155 (Prev: 28) Age: 19
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Another DSL prospect, Cesar Lares crushed his competition in 2022, holding an impressive 2.23 FIP over 46 innings. Again, he’s literally a teenager; we don’t know much about how he’ll perform against older, tougher competition, but he appears to be on the right track. Keep his name in mind. 
    Aaron Sabato 6’2” / 230 (Prev: 29) Age: 23
    Position: 1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    For two years now, Aaron Sabato has done just enough to keep his name in these prospect conversations, but time is running out for the former 1st-round pick. After hitting well at A+ ball, AA smacked into Sabato like a truck; whether he can recover in 2023 will potentially define his time as a Twins prospect.
    Yunior Severino 6’1” / 189 (Prev: 25) Age: 23
    Position: 2B/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A post-hype prospect received after the Braves got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, Yunior Severino broke out with big numbers at A+ ball before falling back to earth at AA. We will see if he can rebound at a higher level.
    Honorable mentions:
    Brayan Medina, RHP:
    Brayan Medina came over in the Chris Paddack trade and struggled to throw strikes in his time at Rookie Ball. He can touch the mid-90s and works well off a curveball.
    Danny De Andrade, 3B/SS:
    Danny De Andrade is an all-around player, lacking in one elite category but doing everything mostly well. He has yet to break out of rookie ball and could burst with his first (probable) playing time in full-season ball. 
    Kala’i Rosario, OF:
    Kala’i Rosario strikes out far too much, but he has good power for a 20-year-old and could improve with extra seasoning.
    Michael Helman, 2B/OF:
    Michael Helman hasn’t exploded with an overwhelming season yet, but he’s snuck his way into AAA, and his overall package could serve him well if the Twins need to call him up.
    Alerick Soularie, 2B/OF:
    Alerick Soularie still hasn’t tapped into his power potential, which makes his high strikeout rate hard to stomach. Still, he could figure it out any day now and shoot back up this list.
     
  9. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from wabene for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (January) + Writeups   
    It's prospect season again. Pitchers and catchers will soon report, so our effort at Twinsdaily to cover the minor leagues will fire up once again, and that includes our prospect rankings.
    The system looks surprisingly strong. Despite a flurry of trades over the last 18 months or so, the Twins still have a top nucleus of elite talent, and the franchise enjoys solid upper-level pitching depth. They're a little low on gamechangers at the elite positions—centerfield and shortstop—but so is basically every system, and Minnesota could easily cover that deficiency with a healthy season from Emmanuel Rodriguez and continued development from their two DSL stars. Remember: tier matters more than ranking.
    Royce Lewis 6’2” / 200 (Prev: 1) Age: 23
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Nothing has changed my view of Royce Lewis since I last updated my list. He’s a potentially franchise-altering talent with a frustrating lack of baseball in his recent resume. Lewis’ short playing time in 2022 was a revelation, as he checked significant boxes—his ability to play shortstop and his hitting prowess—before the brutal knee injury cut off his time playing baseball. A much quieter batting stance appears to have unlocked his hitting potential. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do when he is healthy again.
    Brooks Lee 6’2” / 205 (Prev: 2) Age: 21
    Position: SS/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If you think Brooks Lee deserves to be in the one spot, I can’t argue with you; Lee is an incredibly safe bet to hit well, no matter where his defensive home is. Despite being drafted just seven months ago, Lee reached AA, playing in a handful of games for Wichita before calling it a season; he smoked A+ ball with a 140 wRC+. His immense hitting pedigree, combined with his lineage as a coach’s son indeed points towards an ideal makeup package that should serve him well as he transitions to big leaguer. He’ll probably impact the 2023 Twins and will undoubtedly affect the team in 2024.                                                        
    -------------------------       
    Emmanuel Rodriguez 5’10” / 210 (Prev: 4) Age: 19
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Potentially the most dynamic prospect in Minnesota’s system, Emmanuel Rodriguez’s nuclear 2022 fell violently when he tore his ACL in June. Still, Rodriguez walked an absurd 28.6% of the time while slugging .551 in a league that favors pitchers. Granted, it was just a 199 plate appearance sample. Still, I’m excited to see Rodriguez return to action healthy, and he could quickly become the Twins’ best prospect sometime next season.
    Noah Miller 6’1” / 190 (Prev: 3)    Age: 20
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A
    I am too high on Noah Miller; I will remain too high on Noah Miller until his hitting falls entirely off a cliff. Prospects who are locks to play shortstop do not grow on trees—at least none that I know—and Miller’s bat is just good enough to keep him a valuable contributor at the position. If it clicks offensively—and his strike zone awareness is already elite—we’re looking at a potential successor to Carlos Correa in a few years; he’ll need to gain more power, though.
    Marco Raya 6’1” / 170 (Prev: 8) Age: 20
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    “[Marco] Raya’s slider is Charon, come to ferry batters back to the dugout,” wrote Jeffery Paternostro for Baseball Prospectus in November—a perfect sentence. Raya carries the same risk all pitchers do—injury potential, a future in the bullpen—compounded by his smaller frame. But if he can stay healthy, Raya could vault into the top of the Twins rotation, dominating hitters with a compelling four-pitch mix and a bulldog mentality. Raya struck out 28.9% of batters over 65 innings with Fort Myers in 2022. 
    Jose Salas 6’2” / 191 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A+
    A new name! A critical, underrated addition to the Pablo López trade, Jose Salas adds another intriguing infield wrinkle to a system bursting with “people who can play shortstop,” not necessarily “shortstops.” A super young 19 in A+, Salas hit like an overwhelmed prospect, but some AFL seasoning plus an off-season of recovery could cleanse him anew. Salas hit .267/.355/.421 in A ball before his promotion in 2022. 
    Edouard Julien 6’2” / 195 (Prev: 7) Age: 23
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If this were a list of favorite prospects, Edouard Julien would be top three, potentially sitting at the top spot. What’s not to love? The lefty smoked AA Wichita with a .300/.441/.490 line and then hit—and I’m not kidding here—.400/.563/.686 in the Arizona Fall League before ending his terror on pitchers for the season. He lacks a defensive home, but a team would move Heaven and Earth to find a spot for that bat somewhere. Minnesota added him to the 40-man roster this past season; we will probably see Julien in the majors soon.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
    Connor Prielipp 6’2” / 210 (Prev: 5) Age: 22
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: n/a
    Who is John Galt Connor Prielipp? The baseball world has seen startlingly little from Prielipp, as injuries limited his time with Alabama to seven starts. Still, he owns a mid-90s fastball and a power slider when healthy; 2023 will illuminate his prospect status.
    Simeon Woods Richardson 6’3” / 210 (Prev: 6) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Maybe one of the more crucial cogs in Minnesota’s 2023 pitching machine, Simeon Woods Richardson appears well-set to impact the major league roster soon. Armed with unique fastball traits, Woods Richardson held his own in a harsh Texas League environment in 2022, then torched AAA at the end of the year for fun. He earned enough respect to make his first Twins start—a five-inning outing notable in that he’ll never have to debut again; the nerves are behind him. Still somehow just 22, Woods Richardson struck out 27% of batters in the minors last season.
    -------------------------
    Louie Varland 6’1” / 205 (Prev: 10) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Louie Varland should rank higher on this list, but something in his profile doesn’t fully click for me. His fastball is excellent—a real jumper he can use in any count because of his low angle. But none of his other pitches stood out as difference makers, turning Varland into a one-pitch pitcher. His slider and changeup command was non-existent, and batters brutalized his cutter. That’s a negative paragraph for the supposed 10th-best prospect on the team, but that’s what I’ve seen from Varland, and until it changes, I remain bearish on his starting capabilities. 
    Austin Martin 6’0” / 185 (Prev: 13) Age: 23
    Position: SS/OF
    Highest level reached: AA
    Austin Martin’s wild 2022 bounced him more than any other player around this list. After slugging a dreadful .315 in a hitter’s league, Martin crushed in the Arizona Fall League, showcasing his older, successful mechanics in a dramatic redemption arc. He’s not a shortstop—that much is obvious now, but if his bat is back, then the Twins could have a quality 3-win utility player capable of playing a variety of positions. 2023 will be a crucial test. 
    Matt Wallner 6’5” / 220 (Prev: 9) Age: 25
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: MLB
    It’s hard to hold 18 major league games against a guy, but Matt Wallner’s Adventures in the Outfield stunk enough to deeply sour me on any notions of him replacing Max Kepler soon. The Twins appear to agree. With approximately 30,000 outfielders ahead of him, it would take a series of great tragedies before Wallner earns significant MLB playing time soon. Still, he shaved points off his strikeout rate in 2022—the biggest knock against him—and he could ride his outstanding power stroke to an elongated playing career. 
    Yasser Mercedes 6’2” / 175 (Prev: 11) Age: 18
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Yasser Mercedes did things as a 17-year-old that teenagers aren’t supposed to do. Yes, it was in the noisy environment that is the DSL, but 30 steals with a .555 slugging percentage is impressive, no matter the level. Mercedes will likely play in rookie ball in 2023, and I imagine his prospect package will become much more apparent in 2024 when he’ll still be just 19. 
    David Festa 6’6” / 185 (Prev: 20) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A+
    One of the most “pop-uppiest” prospect in the Twins system in 2022, David Festa commands a tremendous fastball/slider combo that torched hitters in the low minors. Although his numbers dropped following a promotion to A+ ball, Festa punctuated his season with a 10-strikeout performance over six shutout innings in a playoff game against the Cubs. We will see how Festa pitches in a tougher environment in 2023.
    Misael Urbina 6’0” / 190 (Prev: 12) Age: 20
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Misael Urbina is an excellent example of why prospect evaluations are a snapshot in time, not the law in written form: he couldn’t hit for any power in 2021 but re-played A ball again in 2022 and showcased a much-improved power stroke. Soon to be 21, Urbina should unleash even more strength this year, potentially shooting him further up the list. 
    -------------------------
    Brent Headrick 6’6” / 235 (Prev: 14) Age: 25
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A surprise 40-man addition, Brent Headrick’s numbers are perhaps more impressive than his raw tools. His breaker is a bit of a looping pitch, which MLB hitters–especially righties—could lay off of, but his fastball lands perfectly at the top of the zone, and his command is good enough that the breaker shape may not matter. He will probably impact the Twins in 2023—though it’s unclear in what capacity—and he could become a regular, reliable lefty swingman. 
    Jordan Balazovic 6’5” / 215 (Prev: 15) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AAA
    How do you rank Jordan Balazovic? Long considered the promised arm, delivered by our wonderful friends Up North, Balazovic faced a nightmare 2022 season, one so hideous that I don’t even want to post any stats from it. The Twins claimed he was healthy, but such a shocking drop-off in performance is almost unbelievable; hopefully 2023 will be a kinder year for Balazovic.
    Ronny Henriquez 5’10” / 155 (Prev: 17) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    One of the more exciting arms in Minnesota’s system, Ronny Henriquez spent a few months getting bullied by AAA hitters before turning around and delivering an adequate July through end-of-season performance. Armed with a fastball, slider, and changeup, Henriquez will pepper well-commanded off-speed pitches around the zone, hopefully enticing the hitter to bite before the end of the at-bat. His issue? A fastball that ends up either 1. In the heart of the strike zone 2. In the gap (if he’s lucky) 3. In the hands of a fan sitting in right-center field. Whether Henriquez can improve his heater will determine his success at the major league level. 
    Noah Cardenas 6’1” / 195 (Prev: 18) Age: 23
    Position: C
    Highest level reached: A
    I am still trying to understand why Noah Cardenas is not more well-regarded as a prospect. Catchers who hit for a 146 wRC+ aren’t common, and while he was older than your average A-ball hitter, I feel confident that Cardenas should continue to hit as he elevates through the system. Although catcher development is often strange, so he may run into weird pitfalls and unusual traps that keep him from improving linearly. 
    Jose Rodriguez 6’2” / 196 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 17
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Like Yasser Mercedes, Jose Rodriguez is a 17-year-old whose only time in professional baseball is in the DSL—a sign that all hype should involve grains of salt and the such. Still, as a player even younger than most DSL hitters, Rodriguez pounded 13 homers and slugged over .600. He’s about as far away from the majors as possible. Still, you should keep his name in mind over the next few years as a potential big-league powerhouse. 
    Cody Laweryson 6’4” / 205 (Prev: 23) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A personal favorite, Cody Laweryson prefers to trick hitters with his pitching motion: a lanky, swan-like delivery that combines the sudden violence of Carter Capps with the grace of Joe Ryan. Lawyerson crushed AA, striking out over 30% of hitters while holding an ERA just over 1.00. The Twins left him unprotected in the rule 5 draft, and no other team claimed him, giving Laweryson another year to prove that his play isn’t a fluke.
    Cole Sands 6’3” / 215 (Prev: 16) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Cole Sands owns one of the nastiest pitches in Minnesota’s system: a whirling breaking ball, here to alter planes and send batters home wondering if they even saw the pitch. The issue? The offering moves so much that Sands has difficulty commanding the pitch. He mixes in an effective splitter—which actually outperformed his breaker by xwOBA during his time in the majors—but his fastball drags down his profile. Sands might be a kitchen sink reliever if he doesn’t improve his heater. 
    Blayne Enlow 6’3” / 170 (Prev: 14) Age: 23
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    Blayne Enlow pitched in an entire season for the first time since 2019, and his results were mixed. He struck out 24.8% of hitters—which is good—but walked 11.6% of them—which is not good. The Twins DFA’d him earlier in the offseason, but after no team claimed him, Enlow will have another year in the system to prove he was worth his high draft pick. 
    Tanner Schobel 5’10” / 170 (Prev: 27) Age: 21
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: A
    The Twins sent Tanner Schobel on the fast track, pushing their 2022 2nd-round pick to A Ball, where he held his own. Although lacking in power, Schobel could carve out a career as a contact/OBP/defense threat capable of putting together a 3 WAR season if everything works out; many teams could use a player like that. 
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo 6’1” / 160 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    A newcomer, Alexander Hidalgo joined the Twins in the Gio Urshela trade. The Angels handled him with kid gloves, as he didn’t touch 40 innings despite making 10 starts. The owner of a plus changeup, Hidalgo’s pitch mix is otherwise unimpressive, but he could grow into an off-speed specialist if he finds more consistency with his curveball; his fastball lacks crucial characteristics. 
    Matt Canterino 6’2” / 222 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    I highly doubt that Matt Canterino will even become an effective starter for the Twins. His minor league innings total is barren, and the righty looks to be standing in a long line of Rice products driven into the ground by an indifferent coaching staff. Still—and this is the only thing keeping him on the list—his electric stuff could allow him to live as a 1-2 inning reliever.
    Alex Isola 6’1” / 215 (Prev: 24) Age: 24
    Position: C/1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A 29th-round pick, Alex Isola has hit well at every step in his minor league journey. He owns a well-rounded hitting package, trading off a touch of power for excellent plate control (13.0% walk rate vs. 18.2% K rate at AA), and could find himself playing some first base for the Twins if a few injuries take out key players. 
    Cesar Lares 6’0” / 155 (Prev: 28) Age: 19
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Another DSL prospect, Cesar Lares crushed his competition in 2022, holding an impressive 2.23 FIP over 46 innings. Again, he’s literally a teenager; we don’t know much about how he’ll perform against older, tougher competition, but he appears to be on the right track. Keep his name in mind. 
    Aaron Sabato 6’2” / 230 (Prev: 29) Age: 23
    Position: 1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    For two years now, Aaron Sabato has done just enough to keep his name in these prospect conversations, but time is running out for the former 1st-round pick. After hitting well at A+ ball, AA smacked into Sabato like a truck; whether he can recover in 2023 will potentially define his time as a Twins prospect.
    Yunior Severino 6’1” / 189 (Prev: 25) Age: 23
    Position: 2B/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A post-hype prospect received after the Braves got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, Yunior Severino broke out with big numbers at A+ ball before falling back to earth at AA. We will see if he can rebound at a higher level.
    Honorable mentions:
    Brayan Medina, RHP:
    Brayan Medina came over in the Chris Paddack trade and struggled to throw strikes in his time at Rookie Ball. He can touch the mid-90s and works well off a curveball.
    Danny De Andrade, 3B/SS:
    Danny De Andrade is an all-around player, lacking in one elite category but doing everything mostly well. He has yet to break out of rookie ball and could burst with his first (probable) playing time in full-season ball. 
    Kala’i Rosario, OF:
    Kala’i Rosario strikes out far too much, but he has good power for a 20-year-old and could improve with extra seasoning.
    Michael Helman, 2B/OF:
    Michael Helman hasn’t exploded with an overwhelming season yet, but he’s snuck his way into AAA, and his overall package could serve him well if the Twins need to call him up.
    Alerick Soularie, 2B/OF:
    Alerick Soularie still hasn’t tapped into his power potential, which makes his high strikeout rate hard to stomach. Still, he could figure it out any day now and shoot back up this list.
     
  10. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from Heiny for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (January) + Writeups   
    It's prospect season again. Pitchers and catchers will soon report, so our effort at Twinsdaily to cover the minor leagues will fire up once again, and that includes our prospect rankings.
    The system looks surprisingly strong. Despite a flurry of trades over the last 18 months or so, the Twins still have a top nucleus of elite talent, and the franchise enjoys solid upper-level pitching depth. They're a little low on gamechangers at the elite positions—centerfield and shortstop—but so is basically every system, and Minnesota could easily cover that deficiency with a healthy season from Emmanuel Rodriguez and continued development from their two DSL stars. Remember: tier matters more than ranking.
    Royce Lewis 6’2” / 200 (Prev: 1) Age: 23
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Nothing has changed my view of Royce Lewis since I last updated my list. He’s a potentially franchise-altering talent with a frustrating lack of baseball in his recent resume. Lewis’ short playing time in 2022 was a revelation, as he checked significant boxes—his ability to play shortstop and his hitting prowess—before the brutal knee injury cut off his time playing baseball. A much quieter batting stance appears to have unlocked his hitting potential. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do when he is healthy again.
    Brooks Lee 6’2” / 205 (Prev: 2) Age: 21
    Position: SS/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If you think Brooks Lee deserves to be in the one spot, I can’t argue with you; Lee is an incredibly safe bet to hit well, no matter where his defensive home is. Despite being drafted just seven months ago, Lee reached AA, playing in a handful of games for Wichita before calling it a season; he smoked A+ ball with a 140 wRC+. His immense hitting pedigree, combined with his lineage as a coach’s son indeed points towards an ideal makeup package that should serve him well as he transitions to big leaguer. He’ll probably impact the 2023 Twins and will undoubtedly affect the team in 2024.                                                        
    -------------------------       
    Emmanuel Rodriguez 5’10” / 210 (Prev: 4) Age: 19
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Potentially the most dynamic prospect in Minnesota’s system, Emmanuel Rodriguez’s nuclear 2022 fell violently when he tore his ACL in June. Still, Rodriguez walked an absurd 28.6% of the time while slugging .551 in a league that favors pitchers. Granted, it was just a 199 plate appearance sample. Still, I’m excited to see Rodriguez return to action healthy, and he could quickly become the Twins’ best prospect sometime next season.
    Noah Miller 6’1” / 190 (Prev: 3)    Age: 20
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A
    I am too high on Noah Miller; I will remain too high on Noah Miller until his hitting falls entirely off a cliff. Prospects who are locks to play shortstop do not grow on trees—at least none that I know—and Miller’s bat is just good enough to keep him a valuable contributor at the position. If it clicks offensively—and his strike zone awareness is already elite—we’re looking at a potential successor to Carlos Correa in a few years; he’ll need to gain more power, though.
    Marco Raya 6’1” / 170 (Prev: 8) Age: 20
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    “[Marco] Raya’s slider is Charon, come to ferry batters back to the dugout,” wrote Jeffery Paternostro for Baseball Prospectus in November—a perfect sentence. Raya carries the same risk all pitchers do—injury potential, a future in the bullpen—compounded by his smaller frame. But if he can stay healthy, Raya could vault into the top of the Twins rotation, dominating hitters with a compelling four-pitch mix and a bulldog mentality. Raya struck out 28.9% of batters over 65 innings with Fort Myers in 2022. 
    Jose Salas 6’2” / 191 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A+
    A new name! A critical, underrated addition to the Pablo López trade, Jose Salas adds another intriguing infield wrinkle to a system bursting with “people who can play shortstop,” not necessarily “shortstops.” A super young 19 in A+, Salas hit like an overwhelmed prospect, but some AFL seasoning plus an off-season of recovery could cleanse him anew. Salas hit .267/.355/.421 in A ball before his promotion in 2022. 
    Edouard Julien 6’2” / 195 (Prev: 7) Age: 23
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If this were a list of favorite prospects, Edouard Julien would be top three, potentially sitting at the top spot. What’s not to love? The lefty smoked AA Wichita with a .300/.441/.490 line and then hit—and I’m not kidding here—.400/.563/.686 in the Arizona Fall League before ending his terror on pitchers for the season. He lacks a defensive home, but a team would move Heaven and Earth to find a spot for that bat somewhere. Minnesota added him to the 40-man roster this past season; we will probably see Julien in the majors soon.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
    Connor Prielipp 6’2” / 210 (Prev: 5) Age: 22
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: n/a
    Who is John Galt Connor Prielipp? The baseball world has seen startlingly little from Prielipp, as injuries limited his time with Alabama to seven starts. Still, he owns a mid-90s fastball and a power slider when healthy; 2023 will illuminate his prospect status.
    Simeon Woods Richardson 6’3” / 210 (Prev: 6) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Maybe one of the more crucial cogs in Minnesota’s 2023 pitching machine, Simeon Woods Richardson appears well-set to impact the major league roster soon. Armed with unique fastball traits, Woods Richardson held his own in a harsh Texas League environment in 2022, then torched AAA at the end of the year for fun. He earned enough respect to make his first Twins start—a five-inning outing notable in that he’ll never have to debut again; the nerves are behind him. Still somehow just 22, Woods Richardson struck out 27% of batters in the minors last season.
    -------------------------
    Louie Varland 6’1” / 205 (Prev: 10) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Louie Varland should rank higher on this list, but something in his profile doesn’t fully click for me. His fastball is excellent—a real jumper he can use in any count because of his low angle. But none of his other pitches stood out as difference makers, turning Varland into a one-pitch pitcher. His slider and changeup command was non-existent, and batters brutalized his cutter. That’s a negative paragraph for the supposed 10th-best prospect on the team, but that’s what I’ve seen from Varland, and until it changes, I remain bearish on his starting capabilities. 
    Austin Martin 6’0” / 185 (Prev: 13) Age: 23
    Position: SS/OF
    Highest level reached: AA
    Austin Martin’s wild 2022 bounced him more than any other player around this list. After slugging a dreadful .315 in a hitter’s league, Martin crushed in the Arizona Fall League, showcasing his older, successful mechanics in a dramatic redemption arc. He’s not a shortstop—that much is obvious now, but if his bat is back, then the Twins could have a quality 3-win utility player capable of playing a variety of positions. 2023 will be a crucial test. 
    Matt Wallner 6’5” / 220 (Prev: 9) Age: 25
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: MLB
    It’s hard to hold 18 major league games against a guy, but Matt Wallner’s Adventures in the Outfield stunk enough to deeply sour me on any notions of him replacing Max Kepler soon. The Twins appear to agree. With approximately 30,000 outfielders ahead of him, it would take a series of great tragedies before Wallner earns significant MLB playing time soon. Still, he shaved points off his strikeout rate in 2022—the biggest knock against him—and he could ride his outstanding power stroke to an elongated playing career. 
    Yasser Mercedes 6’2” / 175 (Prev: 11) Age: 18
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Yasser Mercedes did things as a 17-year-old that teenagers aren’t supposed to do. Yes, it was in the noisy environment that is the DSL, but 30 steals with a .555 slugging percentage is impressive, no matter the level. Mercedes will likely play in rookie ball in 2023, and I imagine his prospect package will become much more apparent in 2024 when he’ll still be just 19. 
    David Festa 6’6” / 185 (Prev: 20) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A+
    One of the most “pop-uppiest” prospect in the Twins system in 2022, David Festa commands a tremendous fastball/slider combo that torched hitters in the low minors. Although his numbers dropped following a promotion to A+ ball, Festa punctuated his season with a 10-strikeout performance over six shutout innings in a playoff game against the Cubs. We will see how Festa pitches in a tougher environment in 2023.
    Misael Urbina 6’0” / 190 (Prev: 12) Age: 20
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Misael Urbina is an excellent example of why prospect evaluations are a snapshot in time, not the law in written form: he couldn’t hit for any power in 2021 but re-played A ball again in 2022 and showcased a much-improved power stroke. Soon to be 21, Urbina should unleash even more strength this year, potentially shooting him further up the list. 
    -------------------------
    Brent Headrick 6’6” / 235 (Prev: 14) Age: 25
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A surprise 40-man addition, Brent Headrick’s numbers are perhaps more impressive than his raw tools. His breaker is a bit of a looping pitch, which MLB hitters–especially righties—could lay off of, but his fastball lands perfectly at the top of the zone, and his command is good enough that the breaker shape may not matter. He will probably impact the Twins in 2023—though it’s unclear in what capacity—and he could become a regular, reliable lefty swingman. 
    Jordan Balazovic 6’5” / 215 (Prev: 15) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AAA
    How do you rank Jordan Balazovic? Long considered the promised arm, delivered by our wonderful friends Up North, Balazovic faced a nightmare 2022 season, one so hideous that I don’t even want to post any stats from it. The Twins claimed he was healthy, but such a shocking drop-off in performance is almost unbelievable; hopefully 2023 will be a kinder year for Balazovic.
    Ronny Henriquez 5’10” / 155 (Prev: 17) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    One of the more exciting arms in Minnesota’s system, Ronny Henriquez spent a few months getting bullied by AAA hitters before turning around and delivering an adequate July through end-of-season performance. Armed with a fastball, slider, and changeup, Henriquez will pepper well-commanded off-speed pitches around the zone, hopefully enticing the hitter to bite before the end of the at-bat. His issue? A fastball that ends up either 1. In the heart of the strike zone 2. In the gap (if he’s lucky) 3. In the hands of a fan sitting in right-center field. Whether Henriquez can improve his heater will determine his success at the major league level. 
    Noah Cardenas 6’1” / 195 (Prev: 18) Age: 23
    Position: C
    Highest level reached: A
    I am still trying to understand why Noah Cardenas is not more well-regarded as a prospect. Catchers who hit for a 146 wRC+ aren’t common, and while he was older than your average A-ball hitter, I feel confident that Cardenas should continue to hit as he elevates through the system. Although catcher development is often strange, so he may run into weird pitfalls and unusual traps that keep him from improving linearly. 
    Jose Rodriguez 6’2” / 196 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 17
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Like Yasser Mercedes, Jose Rodriguez is a 17-year-old whose only time in professional baseball is in the DSL—a sign that all hype should involve grains of salt and the such. Still, as a player even younger than most DSL hitters, Rodriguez pounded 13 homers and slugged over .600. He’s about as far away from the majors as possible. Still, you should keep his name in mind over the next few years as a potential big-league powerhouse. 
    Cody Laweryson 6’4” / 205 (Prev: 23) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A personal favorite, Cody Laweryson prefers to trick hitters with his pitching motion: a lanky, swan-like delivery that combines the sudden violence of Carter Capps with the grace of Joe Ryan. Lawyerson crushed AA, striking out over 30% of hitters while holding an ERA just over 1.00. The Twins left him unprotected in the rule 5 draft, and no other team claimed him, giving Laweryson another year to prove that his play isn’t a fluke.
    Cole Sands 6’3” / 215 (Prev: 16) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Cole Sands owns one of the nastiest pitches in Minnesota’s system: a whirling breaking ball, here to alter planes and send batters home wondering if they even saw the pitch. The issue? The offering moves so much that Sands has difficulty commanding the pitch. He mixes in an effective splitter—which actually outperformed his breaker by xwOBA during his time in the majors—but his fastball drags down his profile. Sands might be a kitchen sink reliever if he doesn’t improve his heater. 
    Blayne Enlow 6’3” / 170 (Prev: 14) Age: 23
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    Blayne Enlow pitched in an entire season for the first time since 2019, and his results were mixed. He struck out 24.8% of hitters—which is good—but walked 11.6% of them—which is not good. The Twins DFA’d him earlier in the offseason, but after no team claimed him, Enlow will have another year in the system to prove he was worth his high draft pick. 
    Tanner Schobel 5’10” / 170 (Prev: 27) Age: 21
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: A
    The Twins sent Tanner Schobel on the fast track, pushing their 2022 2nd-round pick to A Ball, where he held his own. Although lacking in power, Schobel could carve out a career as a contact/OBP/defense threat capable of putting together a 3 WAR season if everything works out; many teams could use a player like that. 
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo 6’1” / 160 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    A newcomer, Alexander Hidalgo joined the Twins in the Gio Urshela trade. The Angels handled him with kid gloves, as he didn’t touch 40 innings despite making 10 starts. The owner of a plus changeup, Hidalgo’s pitch mix is otherwise unimpressive, but he could grow into an off-speed specialist if he finds more consistency with his curveball; his fastball lacks crucial characteristics. 
    Matt Canterino 6’2” / 222 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    I highly doubt that Matt Canterino will even become an effective starter for the Twins. His minor league innings total is barren, and the righty looks to be standing in a long line of Rice products driven into the ground by an indifferent coaching staff. Still—and this is the only thing keeping him on the list—his electric stuff could allow him to live as a 1-2 inning reliever.
    Alex Isola 6’1” / 215 (Prev: 24) Age: 24
    Position: C/1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A 29th-round pick, Alex Isola has hit well at every step in his minor league journey. He owns a well-rounded hitting package, trading off a touch of power for excellent plate control (13.0% walk rate vs. 18.2% K rate at AA), and could find himself playing some first base for the Twins if a few injuries take out key players. 
    Cesar Lares 6’0” / 155 (Prev: 28) Age: 19
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Another DSL prospect, Cesar Lares crushed his competition in 2022, holding an impressive 2.23 FIP over 46 innings. Again, he’s literally a teenager; we don’t know much about how he’ll perform against older, tougher competition, but he appears to be on the right track. Keep his name in mind. 
    Aaron Sabato 6’2” / 230 (Prev: 29) Age: 23
    Position: 1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    For two years now, Aaron Sabato has done just enough to keep his name in these prospect conversations, but time is running out for the former 1st-round pick. After hitting well at A+ ball, AA smacked into Sabato like a truck; whether he can recover in 2023 will potentially define his time as a Twins prospect.
    Yunior Severino 6’1” / 189 (Prev: 25) Age: 23
    Position: 2B/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A post-hype prospect received after the Braves got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, Yunior Severino broke out with big numbers at A+ ball before falling back to earth at AA. We will see if he can rebound at a higher level.
    Honorable mentions:
    Brayan Medina, RHP:
    Brayan Medina came over in the Chris Paddack trade and struggled to throw strikes in his time at Rookie Ball. He can touch the mid-90s and works well off a curveball.
    Danny De Andrade, 3B/SS:
    Danny De Andrade is an all-around player, lacking in one elite category but doing everything mostly well. He has yet to break out of rookie ball and could burst with his first (probable) playing time in full-season ball. 
    Kala’i Rosario, OF:
    Kala’i Rosario strikes out far too much, but he has good power for a 20-year-old and could improve with extra seasoning.
    Michael Helman, 2B/OF:
    Michael Helman hasn’t exploded with an overwhelming season yet, but he’s snuck his way into AAA, and his overall package could serve him well if the Twins need to call him up.
    Alerick Soularie, 2B/OF:
    Alerick Soularie still hasn’t tapped into his power potential, which makes his high strikeout rate hard to stomach. Still, he could figure it out any day now and shoot back up this list.
     
  11. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from Doctor Gast for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (January) + Writeups   
    It's prospect season again. Pitchers and catchers will soon report, so our effort at Twinsdaily to cover the minor leagues will fire up once again, and that includes our prospect rankings.
    The system looks surprisingly strong. Despite a flurry of trades over the last 18 months or so, the Twins still have a top nucleus of elite talent, and the franchise enjoys solid upper-level pitching depth. They're a little low on gamechangers at the elite positions—centerfield and shortstop—but so is basically every system, and Minnesota could easily cover that deficiency with a healthy season from Emmanuel Rodriguez and continued development from their two DSL stars. Remember: tier matters more than ranking.
    Royce Lewis 6’2” / 200 (Prev: 1) Age: 23
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Nothing has changed my view of Royce Lewis since I last updated my list. He’s a potentially franchise-altering talent with a frustrating lack of baseball in his recent resume. Lewis’ short playing time in 2022 was a revelation, as he checked significant boxes—his ability to play shortstop and his hitting prowess—before the brutal knee injury cut off his time playing baseball. A much quieter batting stance appears to have unlocked his hitting potential. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do when he is healthy again.
    Brooks Lee 6’2” / 205 (Prev: 2) Age: 21
    Position: SS/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If you think Brooks Lee deserves to be in the one spot, I can’t argue with you; Lee is an incredibly safe bet to hit well, no matter where his defensive home is. Despite being drafted just seven months ago, Lee reached AA, playing in a handful of games for Wichita before calling it a season; he smoked A+ ball with a 140 wRC+. His immense hitting pedigree, combined with his lineage as a coach’s son indeed points towards an ideal makeup package that should serve him well as he transitions to big leaguer. He’ll probably impact the 2023 Twins and will undoubtedly affect the team in 2024.                                                        
    -------------------------       
    Emmanuel Rodriguez 5’10” / 210 (Prev: 4) Age: 19
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Potentially the most dynamic prospect in Minnesota’s system, Emmanuel Rodriguez’s nuclear 2022 fell violently when he tore his ACL in June. Still, Rodriguez walked an absurd 28.6% of the time while slugging .551 in a league that favors pitchers. Granted, it was just a 199 plate appearance sample. Still, I’m excited to see Rodriguez return to action healthy, and he could quickly become the Twins’ best prospect sometime next season.
    Noah Miller 6’1” / 190 (Prev: 3)    Age: 20
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A
    I am too high on Noah Miller; I will remain too high on Noah Miller until his hitting falls entirely off a cliff. Prospects who are locks to play shortstop do not grow on trees—at least none that I know—and Miller’s bat is just good enough to keep him a valuable contributor at the position. If it clicks offensively—and his strike zone awareness is already elite—we’re looking at a potential successor to Carlos Correa in a few years; he’ll need to gain more power, though.
    Marco Raya 6’1” / 170 (Prev: 8) Age: 20
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    “[Marco] Raya’s slider is Charon, come to ferry batters back to the dugout,” wrote Jeffery Paternostro for Baseball Prospectus in November—a perfect sentence. Raya carries the same risk all pitchers do—injury potential, a future in the bullpen—compounded by his smaller frame. But if he can stay healthy, Raya could vault into the top of the Twins rotation, dominating hitters with a compelling four-pitch mix and a bulldog mentality. Raya struck out 28.9% of batters over 65 innings with Fort Myers in 2022. 
    Jose Salas 6’2” / 191 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A+
    A new name! A critical, underrated addition to the Pablo López trade, Jose Salas adds another intriguing infield wrinkle to a system bursting with “people who can play shortstop,” not necessarily “shortstops.” A super young 19 in A+, Salas hit like an overwhelmed prospect, but some AFL seasoning plus an off-season of recovery could cleanse him anew. Salas hit .267/.355/.421 in A ball before his promotion in 2022. 
    Edouard Julien 6’2” / 195 (Prev: 7) Age: 23
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If this were a list of favorite prospects, Edouard Julien would be top three, potentially sitting at the top spot. What’s not to love? The lefty smoked AA Wichita with a .300/.441/.490 line and then hit—and I’m not kidding here—.400/.563/.686 in the Arizona Fall League before ending his terror on pitchers for the season. He lacks a defensive home, but a team would move Heaven and Earth to find a spot for that bat somewhere. Minnesota added him to the 40-man roster this past season; we will probably see Julien in the majors soon.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
    Connor Prielipp 6’2” / 210 (Prev: 5) Age: 22
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: n/a
    Who is John Galt Connor Prielipp? The baseball world has seen startlingly little from Prielipp, as injuries limited his time with Alabama to seven starts. Still, he owns a mid-90s fastball and a power slider when healthy; 2023 will illuminate his prospect status.
    Simeon Woods Richardson 6’3” / 210 (Prev: 6) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Maybe one of the more crucial cogs in Minnesota’s 2023 pitching machine, Simeon Woods Richardson appears well-set to impact the major league roster soon. Armed with unique fastball traits, Woods Richardson held his own in a harsh Texas League environment in 2022, then torched AAA at the end of the year for fun. He earned enough respect to make his first Twins start—a five-inning outing notable in that he’ll never have to debut again; the nerves are behind him. Still somehow just 22, Woods Richardson struck out 27% of batters in the minors last season.
    -------------------------
    Louie Varland 6’1” / 205 (Prev: 10) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Louie Varland should rank higher on this list, but something in his profile doesn’t fully click for me. His fastball is excellent—a real jumper he can use in any count because of his low angle. But none of his other pitches stood out as difference makers, turning Varland into a one-pitch pitcher. His slider and changeup command was non-existent, and batters brutalized his cutter. That’s a negative paragraph for the supposed 10th-best prospect on the team, but that’s what I’ve seen from Varland, and until it changes, I remain bearish on his starting capabilities. 
    Austin Martin 6’0” / 185 (Prev: 13) Age: 23
    Position: SS/OF
    Highest level reached: AA
    Austin Martin’s wild 2022 bounced him more than any other player around this list. After slugging a dreadful .315 in a hitter’s league, Martin crushed in the Arizona Fall League, showcasing his older, successful mechanics in a dramatic redemption arc. He’s not a shortstop—that much is obvious now, but if his bat is back, then the Twins could have a quality 3-win utility player capable of playing a variety of positions. 2023 will be a crucial test. 
    Matt Wallner 6’5” / 220 (Prev: 9) Age: 25
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: MLB
    It’s hard to hold 18 major league games against a guy, but Matt Wallner’s Adventures in the Outfield stunk enough to deeply sour me on any notions of him replacing Max Kepler soon. The Twins appear to agree. With approximately 30,000 outfielders ahead of him, it would take a series of great tragedies before Wallner earns significant MLB playing time soon. Still, he shaved points off his strikeout rate in 2022—the biggest knock against him—and he could ride his outstanding power stroke to an elongated playing career. 
    Yasser Mercedes 6’2” / 175 (Prev: 11) Age: 18
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Yasser Mercedes did things as a 17-year-old that teenagers aren’t supposed to do. Yes, it was in the noisy environment that is the DSL, but 30 steals with a .555 slugging percentage is impressive, no matter the level. Mercedes will likely play in rookie ball in 2023, and I imagine his prospect package will become much more apparent in 2024 when he’ll still be just 19. 
    David Festa 6’6” / 185 (Prev: 20) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A+
    One of the most “pop-uppiest” prospect in the Twins system in 2022, David Festa commands a tremendous fastball/slider combo that torched hitters in the low minors. Although his numbers dropped following a promotion to A+ ball, Festa punctuated his season with a 10-strikeout performance over six shutout innings in a playoff game against the Cubs. We will see how Festa pitches in a tougher environment in 2023.
    Misael Urbina 6’0” / 190 (Prev: 12) Age: 20
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Misael Urbina is an excellent example of why prospect evaluations are a snapshot in time, not the law in written form: he couldn’t hit for any power in 2021 but re-played A ball again in 2022 and showcased a much-improved power stroke. Soon to be 21, Urbina should unleash even more strength this year, potentially shooting him further up the list. 
    -------------------------
    Brent Headrick 6’6” / 235 (Prev: 14) Age: 25
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A surprise 40-man addition, Brent Headrick’s numbers are perhaps more impressive than his raw tools. His breaker is a bit of a looping pitch, which MLB hitters–especially righties—could lay off of, but his fastball lands perfectly at the top of the zone, and his command is good enough that the breaker shape may not matter. He will probably impact the Twins in 2023—though it’s unclear in what capacity—and he could become a regular, reliable lefty swingman. 
    Jordan Balazovic 6’5” / 215 (Prev: 15) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AAA
    How do you rank Jordan Balazovic? Long considered the promised arm, delivered by our wonderful friends Up North, Balazovic faced a nightmare 2022 season, one so hideous that I don’t even want to post any stats from it. The Twins claimed he was healthy, but such a shocking drop-off in performance is almost unbelievable; hopefully 2023 will be a kinder year for Balazovic.
    Ronny Henriquez 5’10” / 155 (Prev: 17) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    One of the more exciting arms in Minnesota’s system, Ronny Henriquez spent a few months getting bullied by AAA hitters before turning around and delivering an adequate July through end-of-season performance. Armed with a fastball, slider, and changeup, Henriquez will pepper well-commanded off-speed pitches around the zone, hopefully enticing the hitter to bite before the end of the at-bat. His issue? A fastball that ends up either 1. In the heart of the strike zone 2. In the gap (if he’s lucky) 3. In the hands of a fan sitting in right-center field. Whether Henriquez can improve his heater will determine his success at the major league level. 
    Noah Cardenas 6’1” / 195 (Prev: 18) Age: 23
    Position: C
    Highest level reached: A
    I am still trying to understand why Noah Cardenas is not more well-regarded as a prospect. Catchers who hit for a 146 wRC+ aren’t common, and while he was older than your average A-ball hitter, I feel confident that Cardenas should continue to hit as he elevates through the system. Although catcher development is often strange, so he may run into weird pitfalls and unusual traps that keep him from improving linearly. 
    Jose Rodriguez 6’2” / 196 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 17
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Like Yasser Mercedes, Jose Rodriguez is a 17-year-old whose only time in professional baseball is in the DSL—a sign that all hype should involve grains of salt and the such. Still, as a player even younger than most DSL hitters, Rodriguez pounded 13 homers and slugged over .600. He’s about as far away from the majors as possible. Still, you should keep his name in mind over the next few years as a potential big-league powerhouse. 
    Cody Laweryson 6’4” / 205 (Prev: 23) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A personal favorite, Cody Laweryson prefers to trick hitters with his pitching motion: a lanky, swan-like delivery that combines the sudden violence of Carter Capps with the grace of Joe Ryan. Lawyerson crushed AA, striking out over 30% of hitters while holding an ERA just over 1.00. The Twins left him unprotected in the rule 5 draft, and no other team claimed him, giving Laweryson another year to prove that his play isn’t a fluke.
    Cole Sands 6’3” / 215 (Prev: 16) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Cole Sands owns one of the nastiest pitches in Minnesota’s system: a whirling breaking ball, here to alter planes and send batters home wondering if they even saw the pitch. The issue? The offering moves so much that Sands has difficulty commanding the pitch. He mixes in an effective splitter—which actually outperformed his breaker by xwOBA during his time in the majors—but his fastball drags down his profile. Sands might be a kitchen sink reliever if he doesn’t improve his heater. 
    Blayne Enlow 6’3” / 170 (Prev: 14) Age: 23
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    Blayne Enlow pitched in an entire season for the first time since 2019, and his results were mixed. He struck out 24.8% of hitters—which is good—but walked 11.6% of them—which is not good. The Twins DFA’d him earlier in the offseason, but after no team claimed him, Enlow will have another year in the system to prove he was worth his high draft pick. 
    Tanner Schobel 5’10” / 170 (Prev: 27) Age: 21
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: A
    The Twins sent Tanner Schobel on the fast track, pushing their 2022 2nd-round pick to A Ball, where he held his own. Although lacking in power, Schobel could carve out a career as a contact/OBP/defense threat capable of putting together a 3 WAR season if everything works out; many teams could use a player like that. 
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo 6’1” / 160 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    A newcomer, Alexander Hidalgo joined the Twins in the Gio Urshela trade. The Angels handled him with kid gloves, as he didn’t touch 40 innings despite making 10 starts. The owner of a plus changeup, Hidalgo’s pitch mix is otherwise unimpressive, but he could grow into an off-speed specialist if he finds more consistency with his curveball; his fastball lacks crucial characteristics. 
    Matt Canterino 6’2” / 222 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    I highly doubt that Matt Canterino will even become an effective starter for the Twins. His minor league innings total is barren, and the righty looks to be standing in a long line of Rice products driven into the ground by an indifferent coaching staff. Still—and this is the only thing keeping him on the list—his electric stuff could allow him to live as a 1-2 inning reliever.
    Alex Isola 6’1” / 215 (Prev: 24) Age: 24
    Position: C/1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A 29th-round pick, Alex Isola has hit well at every step in his minor league journey. He owns a well-rounded hitting package, trading off a touch of power for excellent plate control (13.0% walk rate vs. 18.2% K rate at AA), and could find himself playing some first base for the Twins if a few injuries take out key players. 
    Cesar Lares 6’0” / 155 (Prev: 28) Age: 19
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Another DSL prospect, Cesar Lares crushed his competition in 2022, holding an impressive 2.23 FIP over 46 innings. Again, he’s literally a teenager; we don’t know much about how he’ll perform against older, tougher competition, but he appears to be on the right track. Keep his name in mind. 
    Aaron Sabato 6’2” / 230 (Prev: 29) Age: 23
    Position: 1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    For two years now, Aaron Sabato has done just enough to keep his name in these prospect conversations, but time is running out for the former 1st-round pick. After hitting well at A+ ball, AA smacked into Sabato like a truck; whether he can recover in 2023 will potentially define his time as a Twins prospect.
    Yunior Severino 6’1” / 189 (Prev: 25) Age: 23
    Position: 2B/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A post-hype prospect received after the Braves got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, Yunior Severino broke out with big numbers at A+ ball before falling back to earth at AA. We will see if he can rebound at a higher level.
    Honorable mentions:
    Brayan Medina, RHP:
    Brayan Medina came over in the Chris Paddack trade and struggled to throw strikes in his time at Rookie Ball. He can touch the mid-90s and works well off a curveball.
    Danny De Andrade, 3B/SS:
    Danny De Andrade is an all-around player, lacking in one elite category but doing everything mostly well. He has yet to break out of rookie ball and could burst with his first (probable) playing time in full-season ball. 
    Kala’i Rosario, OF:
    Kala’i Rosario strikes out far too much, but he has good power for a 20-year-old and could improve with extra seasoning.
    Michael Helman, 2B/OF:
    Michael Helman hasn’t exploded with an overwhelming season yet, but he’s snuck his way into AAA, and his overall package could serve him well if the Twins need to call him up.
    Alerick Soularie, 2B/OF:
    Alerick Soularie still hasn’t tapped into his power potential, which makes his high strikeout rate hard to stomach. Still, he could figure it out any day now and shoot back up this list.
     
  12. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from weitz41 for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (January) + Writeups   
    It's prospect season again. Pitchers and catchers will soon report, so our effort at Twinsdaily to cover the minor leagues will fire up once again, and that includes our prospect rankings.
    The system looks surprisingly strong. Despite a flurry of trades over the last 18 months or so, the Twins still have a top nucleus of elite talent, and the franchise enjoys solid upper-level pitching depth. They're a little low on gamechangers at the elite positions—centerfield and shortstop—but so is basically every system, and Minnesota could easily cover that deficiency with a healthy season from Emmanuel Rodriguez and continued development from their two DSL stars. Remember: tier matters more than ranking.
    Royce Lewis 6’2” / 200 (Prev: 1) Age: 23
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Nothing has changed my view of Royce Lewis since I last updated my list. He’s a potentially franchise-altering talent with a frustrating lack of baseball in his recent resume. Lewis’ short playing time in 2022 was a revelation, as he checked significant boxes—his ability to play shortstop and his hitting prowess—before the brutal knee injury cut off his time playing baseball. A much quieter batting stance appears to have unlocked his hitting potential. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do when he is healthy again.
    Brooks Lee 6’2” / 205 (Prev: 2) Age: 21
    Position: SS/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If you think Brooks Lee deserves to be in the one spot, I can’t argue with you; Lee is an incredibly safe bet to hit well, no matter where his defensive home is. Despite being drafted just seven months ago, Lee reached AA, playing in a handful of games for Wichita before calling it a season; he smoked A+ ball with a 140 wRC+. His immense hitting pedigree, combined with his lineage as a coach’s son indeed points towards an ideal makeup package that should serve him well as he transitions to big leaguer. He’ll probably impact the 2023 Twins and will undoubtedly affect the team in 2024.                                                        
    -------------------------       
    Emmanuel Rodriguez 5’10” / 210 (Prev: 4) Age: 19
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Potentially the most dynamic prospect in Minnesota’s system, Emmanuel Rodriguez’s nuclear 2022 fell violently when he tore his ACL in June. Still, Rodriguez walked an absurd 28.6% of the time while slugging .551 in a league that favors pitchers. Granted, it was just a 199 plate appearance sample. Still, I’m excited to see Rodriguez return to action healthy, and he could quickly become the Twins’ best prospect sometime next season.
    Noah Miller 6’1” / 190 (Prev: 3)    Age: 20
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A
    I am too high on Noah Miller; I will remain too high on Noah Miller until his hitting falls entirely off a cliff. Prospects who are locks to play shortstop do not grow on trees—at least none that I know—and Miller’s bat is just good enough to keep him a valuable contributor at the position. If it clicks offensively—and his strike zone awareness is already elite—we’re looking at a potential successor to Carlos Correa in a few years; he’ll need to gain more power, though.
    Marco Raya 6’1” / 170 (Prev: 8) Age: 20
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    “[Marco] Raya’s slider is Charon, come to ferry batters back to the dugout,” wrote Jeffery Paternostro for Baseball Prospectus in November—a perfect sentence. Raya carries the same risk all pitchers do—injury potential, a future in the bullpen—compounded by his smaller frame. But if he can stay healthy, Raya could vault into the top of the Twins rotation, dominating hitters with a compelling four-pitch mix and a bulldog mentality. Raya struck out 28.9% of batters over 65 innings with Fort Myers in 2022. 
    Jose Salas 6’2” / 191 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A+
    A new name! A critical, underrated addition to the Pablo López trade, Jose Salas adds another intriguing infield wrinkle to a system bursting with “people who can play shortstop,” not necessarily “shortstops.” A super young 19 in A+, Salas hit like an overwhelmed prospect, but some AFL seasoning plus an off-season of recovery could cleanse him anew. Salas hit .267/.355/.421 in A ball before his promotion in 2022. 
    Edouard Julien 6’2” / 195 (Prev: 7) Age: 23
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If this were a list of favorite prospects, Edouard Julien would be top three, potentially sitting at the top spot. What’s not to love? The lefty smoked AA Wichita with a .300/.441/.490 line and then hit—and I’m not kidding here—.400/.563/.686 in the Arizona Fall League before ending his terror on pitchers for the season. He lacks a defensive home, but a team would move Heaven and Earth to find a spot for that bat somewhere. Minnesota added him to the 40-man roster this past season; we will probably see Julien in the majors soon.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
    Connor Prielipp 6’2” / 210 (Prev: 5) Age: 22
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: n/a
    Who is John Galt Connor Prielipp? The baseball world has seen startlingly little from Prielipp, as injuries limited his time with Alabama to seven starts. Still, he owns a mid-90s fastball and a power slider when healthy; 2023 will illuminate his prospect status.
    Simeon Woods Richardson 6’3” / 210 (Prev: 6) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Maybe one of the more crucial cogs in Minnesota’s 2023 pitching machine, Simeon Woods Richardson appears well-set to impact the major league roster soon. Armed with unique fastball traits, Woods Richardson held his own in a harsh Texas League environment in 2022, then torched AAA at the end of the year for fun. He earned enough respect to make his first Twins start—a five-inning outing notable in that he’ll never have to debut again; the nerves are behind him. Still somehow just 22, Woods Richardson struck out 27% of batters in the minors last season.
    -------------------------
    Louie Varland 6’1” / 205 (Prev: 10) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Louie Varland should rank higher on this list, but something in his profile doesn’t fully click for me. His fastball is excellent—a real jumper he can use in any count because of his low angle. But none of his other pitches stood out as difference makers, turning Varland into a one-pitch pitcher. His slider and changeup command was non-existent, and batters brutalized his cutter. That’s a negative paragraph for the supposed 10th-best prospect on the team, but that’s what I’ve seen from Varland, and until it changes, I remain bearish on his starting capabilities. 
    Austin Martin 6’0” / 185 (Prev: 13) Age: 23
    Position: SS/OF
    Highest level reached: AA
    Austin Martin’s wild 2022 bounced him more than any other player around this list. After slugging a dreadful .315 in a hitter’s league, Martin crushed in the Arizona Fall League, showcasing his older, successful mechanics in a dramatic redemption arc. He’s not a shortstop—that much is obvious now, but if his bat is back, then the Twins could have a quality 3-win utility player capable of playing a variety of positions. 2023 will be a crucial test. 
    Matt Wallner 6’5” / 220 (Prev: 9) Age: 25
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: MLB
    It’s hard to hold 18 major league games against a guy, but Matt Wallner’s Adventures in the Outfield stunk enough to deeply sour me on any notions of him replacing Max Kepler soon. The Twins appear to agree. With approximately 30,000 outfielders ahead of him, it would take a series of great tragedies before Wallner earns significant MLB playing time soon. Still, he shaved points off his strikeout rate in 2022—the biggest knock against him—and he could ride his outstanding power stroke to an elongated playing career. 
    Yasser Mercedes 6’2” / 175 (Prev: 11) Age: 18
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Yasser Mercedes did things as a 17-year-old that teenagers aren’t supposed to do. Yes, it was in the noisy environment that is the DSL, but 30 steals with a .555 slugging percentage is impressive, no matter the level. Mercedes will likely play in rookie ball in 2023, and I imagine his prospect package will become much more apparent in 2024 when he’ll still be just 19. 
    David Festa 6’6” / 185 (Prev: 20) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A+
    One of the most “pop-uppiest” prospect in the Twins system in 2022, David Festa commands a tremendous fastball/slider combo that torched hitters in the low minors. Although his numbers dropped following a promotion to A+ ball, Festa punctuated his season with a 10-strikeout performance over six shutout innings in a playoff game against the Cubs. We will see how Festa pitches in a tougher environment in 2023.
    Misael Urbina 6’0” / 190 (Prev: 12) Age: 20
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Misael Urbina is an excellent example of why prospect evaluations are a snapshot in time, not the law in written form: he couldn’t hit for any power in 2021 but re-played A ball again in 2022 and showcased a much-improved power stroke. Soon to be 21, Urbina should unleash even more strength this year, potentially shooting him further up the list. 
    -------------------------
    Brent Headrick 6’6” / 235 (Prev: 14) Age: 25
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A surprise 40-man addition, Brent Headrick’s numbers are perhaps more impressive than his raw tools. His breaker is a bit of a looping pitch, which MLB hitters–especially righties—could lay off of, but his fastball lands perfectly at the top of the zone, and his command is good enough that the breaker shape may not matter. He will probably impact the Twins in 2023—though it’s unclear in what capacity—and he could become a regular, reliable lefty swingman. 
    Jordan Balazovic 6’5” / 215 (Prev: 15) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AAA
    How do you rank Jordan Balazovic? Long considered the promised arm, delivered by our wonderful friends Up North, Balazovic faced a nightmare 2022 season, one so hideous that I don’t even want to post any stats from it. The Twins claimed he was healthy, but such a shocking drop-off in performance is almost unbelievable; hopefully 2023 will be a kinder year for Balazovic.
    Ronny Henriquez 5’10” / 155 (Prev: 17) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    One of the more exciting arms in Minnesota’s system, Ronny Henriquez spent a few months getting bullied by AAA hitters before turning around and delivering an adequate July through end-of-season performance. Armed with a fastball, slider, and changeup, Henriquez will pepper well-commanded off-speed pitches around the zone, hopefully enticing the hitter to bite before the end of the at-bat. His issue? A fastball that ends up either 1. In the heart of the strike zone 2. In the gap (if he’s lucky) 3. In the hands of a fan sitting in right-center field. Whether Henriquez can improve his heater will determine his success at the major league level. 
    Noah Cardenas 6’1” / 195 (Prev: 18) Age: 23
    Position: C
    Highest level reached: A
    I am still trying to understand why Noah Cardenas is not more well-regarded as a prospect. Catchers who hit for a 146 wRC+ aren’t common, and while he was older than your average A-ball hitter, I feel confident that Cardenas should continue to hit as he elevates through the system. Although catcher development is often strange, so he may run into weird pitfalls and unusual traps that keep him from improving linearly. 
    Jose Rodriguez 6’2” / 196 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 17
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Like Yasser Mercedes, Jose Rodriguez is a 17-year-old whose only time in professional baseball is in the DSL—a sign that all hype should involve grains of salt and the such. Still, as a player even younger than most DSL hitters, Rodriguez pounded 13 homers and slugged over .600. He’s about as far away from the majors as possible. Still, you should keep his name in mind over the next few years as a potential big-league powerhouse. 
    Cody Laweryson 6’4” / 205 (Prev: 23) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A personal favorite, Cody Laweryson prefers to trick hitters with his pitching motion: a lanky, swan-like delivery that combines the sudden violence of Carter Capps with the grace of Joe Ryan. Lawyerson crushed AA, striking out over 30% of hitters while holding an ERA just over 1.00. The Twins left him unprotected in the rule 5 draft, and no other team claimed him, giving Laweryson another year to prove that his play isn’t a fluke.
    Cole Sands 6’3” / 215 (Prev: 16) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Cole Sands owns one of the nastiest pitches in Minnesota’s system: a whirling breaking ball, here to alter planes and send batters home wondering if they even saw the pitch. The issue? The offering moves so much that Sands has difficulty commanding the pitch. He mixes in an effective splitter—which actually outperformed his breaker by xwOBA during his time in the majors—but his fastball drags down his profile. Sands might be a kitchen sink reliever if he doesn’t improve his heater. 
    Blayne Enlow 6’3” / 170 (Prev: 14) Age: 23
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    Blayne Enlow pitched in an entire season for the first time since 2019, and his results were mixed. He struck out 24.8% of hitters—which is good—but walked 11.6% of them—which is not good. The Twins DFA’d him earlier in the offseason, but after no team claimed him, Enlow will have another year in the system to prove he was worth his high draft pick. 
    Tanner Schobel 5’10” / 170 (Prev: 27) Age: 21
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: A
    The Twins sent Tanner Schobel on the fast track, pushing their 2022 2nd-round pick to A Ball, where he held his own. Although lacking in power, Schobel could carve out a career as a contact/OBP/defense threat capable of putting together a 3 WAR season if everything works out; many teams could use a player like that. 
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo 6’1” / 160 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    A newcomer, Alexander Hidalgo joined the Twins in the Gio Urshela trade. The Angels handled him with kid gloves, as he didn’t touch 40 innings despite making 10 starts. The owner of a plus changeup, Hidalgo’s pitch mix is otherwise unimpressive, but he could grow into an off-speed specialist if he finds more consistency with his curveball; his fastball lacks crucial characteristics. 
    Matt Canterino 6’2” / 222 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    I highly doubt that Matt Canterino will even become an effective starter for the Twins. His minor league innings total is barren, and the righty looks to be standing in a long line of Rice products driven into the ground by an indifferent coaching staff. Still—and this is the only thing keeping him on the list—his electric stuff could allow him to live as a 1-2 inning reliever.
    Alex Isola 6’1” / 215 (Prev: 24) Age: 24
    Position: C/1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A 29th-round pick, Alex Isola has hit well at every step in his minor league journey. He owns a well-rounded hitting package, trading off a touch of power for excellent plate control (13.0% walk rate vs. 18.2% K rate at AA), and could find himself playing some first base for the Twins if a few injuries take out key players. 
    Cesar Lares 6’0” / 155 (Prev: 28) Age: 19
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Another DSL prospect, Cesar Lares crushed his competition in 2022, holding an impressive 2.23 FIP over 46 innings. Again, he’s literally a teenager; we don’t know much about how he’ll perform against older, tougher competition, but he appears to be on the right track. Keep his name in mind. 
    Aaron Sabato 6’2” / 230 (Prev: 29) Age: 23
    Position: 1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    For two years now, Aaron Sabato has done just enough to keep his name in these prospect conversations, but time is running out for the former 1st-round pick. After hitting well at A+ ball, AA smacked into Sabato like a truck; whether he can recover in 2023 will potentially define his time as a Twins prospect.
    Yunior Severino 6’1” / 189 (Prev: 25) Age: 23
    Position: 2B/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A post-hype prospect received after the Braves got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, Yunior Severino broke out with big numbers at A+ ball before falling back to earth at AA. We will see if he can rebound at a higher level.
    Honorable mentions:
    Brayan Medina, RHP:
    Brayan Medina came over in the Chris Paddack trade and struggled to throw strikes in his time at Rookie Ball. He can touch the mid-90s and works well off a curveball.
    Danny De Andrade, 3B/SS:
    Danny De Andrade is an all-around player, lacking in one elite category but doing everything mostly well. He has yet to break out of rookie ball and could burst with his first (probable) playing time in full-season ball. 
    Kala’i Rosario, OF:
    Kala’i Rosario strikes out far too much, but he has good power for a 20-year-old and could improve with extra seasoning.
    Michael Helman, 2B/OF:
    Michael Helman hasn’t exploded with an overwhelming season yet, but he’s snuck his way into AAA, and his overall package could serve him well if the Twins need to call him up.
    Alerick Soularie, 2B/OF:
    Alerick Soularie still hasn’t tapped into his power potential, which makes his high strikeout rate hard to stomach. Still, he could figure it out any day now and shoot back up this list.
     
  13. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from Fatbat for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (January) + Writeups   
    It's prospect season again. Pitchers and catchers will soon report, so our effort at Twinsdaily to cover the minor leagues will fire up once again, and that includes our prospect rankings.
    The system looks surprisingly strong. Despite a flurry of trades over the last 18 months or so, the Twins still have a top nucleus of elite talent, and the franchise enjoys solid upper-level pitching depth. They're a little low on gamechangers at the elite positions—centerfield and shortstop—but so is basically every system, and Minnesota could easily cover that deficiency with a healthy season from Emmanuel Rodriguez and continued development from their two DSL stars. Remember: tier matters more than ranking.
    Royce Lewis 6’2” / 200 (Prev: 1) Age: 23
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Nothing has changed my view of Royce Lewis since I last updated my list. He’s a potentially franchise-altering talent with a frustrating lack of baseball in his recent resume. Lewis’ short playing time in 2022 was a revelation, as he checked significant boxes—his ability to play shortstop and his hitting prowess—before the brutal knee injury cut off his time playing baseball. A much quieter batting stance appears to have unlocked his hitting potential. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do when he is healthy again.
    Brooks Lee 6’2” / 205 (Prev: 2) Age: 21
    Position: SS/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If you think Brooks Lee deserves to be in the one spot, I can’t argue with you; Lee is an incredibly safe bet to hit well, no matter where his defensive home is. Despite being drafted just seven months ago, Lee reached AA, playing in a handful of games for Wichita before calling it a season; he smoked A+ ball with a 140 wRC+. His immense hitting pedigree, combined with his lineage as a coach’s son indeed points towards an ideal makeup package that should serve him well as he transitions to big leaguer. He’ll probably impact the 2023 Twins and will undoubtedly affect the team in 2024.                                                        
    -------------------------       
    Emmanuel Rodriguez 5’10” / 210 (Prev: 4) Age: 19
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Potentially the most dynamic prospect in Minnesota’s system, Emmanuel Rodriguez’s nuclear 2022 fell violently when he tore his ACL in June. Still, Rodriguez walked an absurd 28.6% of the time while slugging .551 in a league that favors pitchers. Granted, it was just a 199 plate appearance sample. Still, I’m excited to see Rodriguez return to action healthy, and he could quickly become the Twins’ best prospect sometime next season.
    Noah Miller 6’1” / 190 (Prev: 3)    Age: 20
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A
    I am too high on Noah Miller; I will remain too high on Noah Miller until his hitting falls entirely off a cliff. Prospects who are locks to play shortstop do not grow on trees—at least none that I know—and Miller’s bat is just good enough to keep him a valuable contributor at the position. If it clicks offensively—and his strike zone awareness is already elite—we’re looking at a potential successor to Carlos Correa in a few years; he’ll need to gain more power, though.
    Marco Raya 6’1” / 170 (Prev: 8) Age: 20
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    “[Marco] Raya’s slider is Charon, come to ferry batters back to the dugout,” wrote Jeffery Paternostro for Baseball Prospectus in November—a perfect sentence. Raya carries the same risk all pitchers do—injury potential, a future in the bullpen—compounded by his smaller frame. But if he can stay healthy, Raya could vault into the top of the Twins rotation, dominating hitters with a compelling four-pitch mix and a bulldog mentality. Raya struck out 28.9% of batters over 65 innings with Fort Myers in 2022. 
    Jose Salas 6’2” / 191 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A+
    A new name! A critical, underrated addition to the Pablo López trade, Jose Salas adds another intriguing infield wrinkle to a system bursting with “people who can play shortstop,” not necessarily “shortstops.” A super young 19 in A+, Salas hit like an overwhelmed prospect, but some AFL seasoning plus an off-season of recovery could cleanse him anew. Salas hit .267/.355/.421 in A ball before his promotion in 2022. 
    Edouard Julien 6’2” / 195 (Prev: 7) Age: 23
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If this were a list of favorite prospects, Edouard Julien would be top three, potentially sitting at the top spot. What’s not to love? The lefty smoked AA Wichita with a .300/.441/.490 line and then hit—and I’m not kidding here—.400/.563/.686 in the Arizona Fall League before ending his terror on pitchers for the season. He lacks a defensive home, but a team would move Heaven and Earth to find a spot for that bat somewhere. Minnesota added him to the 40-man roster this past season; we will probably see Julien in the majors soon.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
    Connor Prielipp 6’2” / 210 (Prev: 5) Age: 22
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: n/a
    Who is John Galt Connor Prielipp? The baseball world has seen startlingly little from Prielipp, as injuries limited his time with Alabama to seven starts. Still, he owns a mid-90s fastball and a power slider when healthy; 2023 will illuminate his prospect status.
    Simeon Woods Richardson 6’3” / 210 (Prev: 6) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Maybe one of the more crucial cogs in Minnesota’s 2023 pitching machine, Simeon Woods Richardson appears well-set to impact the major league roster soon. Armed with unique fastball traits, Woods Richardson held his own in a harsh Texas League environment in 2022, then torched AAA at the end of the year for fun. He earned enough respect to make his first Twins start—a five-inning outing notable in that he’ll never have to debut again; the nerves are behind him. Still somehow just 22, Woods Richardson struck out 27% of batters in the minors last season.
    -------------------------
    Louie Varland 6’1” / 205 (Prev: 10) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Louie Varland should rank higher on this list, but something in his profile doesn’t fully click for me. His fastball is excellent—a real jumper he can use in any count because of his low angle. But none of his other pitches stood out as difference makers, turning Varland into a one-pitch pitcher. His slider and changeup command was non-existent, and batters brutalized his cutter. That’s a negative paragraph for the supposed 10th-best prospect on the team, but that’s what I’ve seen from Varland, and until it changes, I remain bearish on his starting capabilities. 
    Austin Martin 6’0” / 185 (Prev: 13) Age: 23
    Position: SS/OF
    Highest level reached: AA
    Austin Martin’s wild 2022 bounced him more than any other player around this list. After slugging a dreadful .315 in a hitter’s league, Martin crushed in the Arizona Fall League, showcasing his older, successful mechanics in a dramatic redemption arc. He’s not a shortstop—that much is obvious now, but if his bat is back, then the Twins could have a quality 3-win utility player capable of playing a variety of positions. 2023 will be a crucial test. 
    Matt Wallner 6’5” / 220 (Prev: 9) Age: 25
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: MLB
    It’s hard to hold 18 major league games against a guy, but Matt Wallner’s Adventures in the Outfield stunk enough to deeply sour me on any notions of him replacing Max Kepler soon. The Twins appear to agree. With approximately 30,000 outfielders ahead of him, it would take a series of great tragedies before Wallner earns significant MLB playing time soon. Still, he shaved points off his strikeout rate in 2022—the biggest knock against him—and he could ride his outstanding power stroke to an elongated playing career. 
    Yasser Mercedes 6’2” / 175 (Prev: 11) Age: 18
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Yasser Mercedes did things as a 17-year-old that teenagers aren’t supposed to do. Yes, it was in the noisy environment that is the DSL, but 30 steals with a .555 slugging percentage is impressive, no matter the level. Mercedes will likely play in rookie ball in 2023, and I imagine his prospect package will become much more apparent in 2024 when he’ll still be just 19. 
    David Festa 6’6” / 185 (Prev: 20) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A+
    One of the most “pop-uppiest” prospect in the Twins system in 2022, David Festa commands a tremendous fastball/slider combo that torched hitters in the low minors. Although his numbers dropped following a promotion to A+ ball, Festa punctuated his season with a 10-strikeout performance over six shutout innings in a playoff game against the Cubs. We will see how Festa pitches in a tougher environment in 2023.
    Misael Urbina 6’0” / 190 (Prev: 12) Age: 20
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Misael Urbina is an excellent example of why prospect evaluations are a snapshot in time, not the law in written form: he couldn’t hit for any power in 2021 but re-played A ball again in 2022 and showcased a much-improved power stroke. Soon to be 21, Urbina should unleash even more strength this year, potentially shooting him further up the list. 
    -------------------------
    Brent Headrick 6’6” / 235 (Prev: 14) Age: 25
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A surprise 40-man addition, Brent Headrick’s numbers are perhaps more impressive than his raw tools. His breaker is a bit of a looping pitch, which MLB hitters–especially righties—could lay off of, but his fastball lands perfectly at the top of the zone, and his command is good enough that the breaker shape may not matter. He will probably impact the Twins in 2023—though it’s unclear in what capacity—and he could become a regular, reliable lefty swingman. 
    Jordan Balazovic 6’5” / 215 (Prev: 15) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AAA
    How do you rank Jordan Balazovic? Long considered the promised arm, delivered by our wonderful friends Up North, Balazovic faced a nightmare 2022 season, one so hideous that I don’t even want to post any stats from it. The Twins claimed he was healthy, but such a shocking drop-off in performance is almost unbelievable; hopefully 2023 will be a kinder year for Balazovic.
    Ronny Henriquez 5’10” / 155 (Prev: 17) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    One of the more exciting arms in Minnesota’s system, Ronny Henriquez spent a few months getting bullied by AAA hitters before turning around and delivering an adequate July through end-of-season performance. Armed with a fastball, slider, and changeup, Henriquez will pepper well-commanded off-speed pitches around the zone, hopefully enticing the hitter to bite before the end of the at-bat. His issue? A fastball that ends up either 1. In the heart of the strike zone 2. In the gap (if he’s lucky) 3. In the hands of a fan sitting in right-center field. Whether Henriquez can improve his heater will determine his success at the major league level. 
    Noah Cardenas 6’1” / 195 (Prev: 18) Age: 23
    Position: C
    Highest level reached: A
    I am still trying to understand why Noah Cardenas is not more well-regarded as a prospect. Catchers who hit for a 146 wRC+ aren’t common, and while he was older than your average A-ball hitter, I feel confident that Cardenas should continue to hit as he elevates through the system. Although catcher development is often strange, so he may run into weird pitfalls and unusual traps that keep him from improving linearly. 
    Jose Rodriguez 6’2” / 196 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 17
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Like Yasser Mercedes, Jose Rodriguez is a 17-year-old whose only time in professional baseball is in the DSL—a sign that all hype should involve grains of salt and the such. Still, as a player even younger than most DSL hitters, Rodriguez pounded 13 homers and slugged over .600. He’s about as far away from the majors as possible. Still, you should keep his name in mind over the next few years as a potential big-league powerhouse. 
    Cody Laweryson 6’4” / 205 (Prev: 23) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A personal favorite, Cody Laweryson prefers to trick hitters with his pitching motion: a lanky, swan-like delivery that combines the sudden violence of Carter Capps with the grace of Joe Ryan. Lawyerson crushed AA, striking out over 30% of hitters while holding an ERA just over 1.00. The Twins left him unprotected in the rule 5 draft, and no other team claimed him, giving Laweryson another year to prove that his play isn’t a fluke.
    Cole Sands 6’3” / 215 (Prev: 16) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Cole Sands owns one of the nastiest pitches in Minnesota’s system: a whirling breaking ball, here to alter planes and send batters home wondering if they even saw the pitch. The issue? The offering moves so much that Sands has difficulty commanding the pitch. He mixes in an effective splitter—which actually outperformed his breaker by xwOBA during his time in the majors—but his fastball drags down his profile. Sands might be a kitchen sink reliever if he doesn’t improve his heater. 
    Blayne Enlow 6’3” / 170 (Prev: 14) Age: 23
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    Blayne Enlow pitched in an entire season for the first time since 2019, and his results were mixed. He struck out 24.8% of hitters—which is good—but walked 11.6% of them—which is not good. The Twins DFA’d him earlier in the offseason, but after no team claimed him, Enlow will have another year in the system to prove he was worth his high draft pick. 
    Tanner Schobel 5’10” / 170 (Prev: 27) Age: 21
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: A
    The Twins sent Tanner Schobel on the fast track, pushing their 2022 2nd-round pick to A Ball, where he held his own. Although lacking in power, Schobel could carve out a career as a contact/OBP/defense threat capable of putting together a 3 WAR season if everything works out; many teams could use a player like that. 
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo 6’1” / 160 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    A newcomer, Alexander Hidalgo joined the Twins in the Gio Urshela trade. The Angels handled him with kid gloves, as he didn’t touch 40 innings despite making 10 starts. The owner of a plus changeup, Hidalgo’s pitch mix is otherwise unimpressive, but he could grow into an off-speed specialist if he finds more consistency with his curveball; his fastball lacks crucial characteristics. 
    Matt Canterino 6’2” / 222 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    I highly doubt that Matt Canterino will even become an effective starter for the Twins. His minor league innings total is barren, and the righty looks to be standing in a long line of Rice products driven into the ground by an indifferent coaching staff. Still—and this is the only thing keeping him on the list—his electric stuff could allow him to live as a 1-2 inning reliever.
    Alex Isola 6’1” / 215 (Prev: 24) Age: 24
    Position: C/1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A 29th-round pick, Alex Isola has hit well at every step in his minor league journey. He owns a well-rounded hitting package, trading off a touch of power for excellent plate control (13.0% walk rate vs. 18.2% K rate at AA), and could find himself playing some first base for the Twins if a few injuries take out key players. 
    Cesar Lares 6’0” / 155 (Prev: 28) Age: 19
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Another DSL prospect, Cesar Lares crushed his competition in 2022, holding an impressive 2.23 FIP over 46 innings. Again, he’s literally a teenager; we don’t know much about how he’ll perform against older, tougher competition, but he appears to be on the right track. Keep his name in mind. 
    Aaron Sabato 6’2” / 230 (Prev: 29) Age: 23
    Position: 1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    For two years now, Aaron Sabato has done just enough to keep his name in these prospect conversations, but time is running out for the former 1st-round pick. After hitting well at A+ ball, AA smacked into Sabato like a truck; whether he can recover in 2023 will potentially define his time as a Twins prospect.
    Yunior Severino 6’1” / 189 (Prev: 25) Age: 23
    Position: 2B/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A post-hype prospect received after the Braves got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, Yunior Severino broke out with big numbers at A+ ball before falling back to earth at AA. We will see if he can rebound at a higher level.
    Honorable mentions:
    Brayan Medina, RHP:
    Brayan Medina came over in the Chris Paddack trade and struggled to throw strikes in his time at Rookie Ball. He can touch the mid-90s and works well off a curveball.
    Danny De Andrade, 3B/SS:
    Danny De Andrade is an all-around player, lacking in one elite category but doing everything mostly well. He has yet to break out of rookie ball and could burst with his first (probable) playing time in full-season ball. 
    Kala’i Rosario, OF:
    Kala’i Rosario strikes out far too much, but he has good power for a 20-year-old and could improve with extra seasoning.
    Michael Helman, 2B/OF:
    Michael Helman hasn’t exploded with an overwhelming season yet, but he’s snuck his way into AAA, and his overall package could serve him well if the Twins need to call him up.
    Alerick Soularie, 2B/OF:
    Alerick Soularie still hasn’t tapped into his power potential, which makes his high strikeout rate hard to stomach. Still, he could figure it out any day now and shoot back up this list.
     
  14. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (January) + Writeups   
    It's prospect season again. Pitchers and catchers will soon report, so our effort at Twinsdaily to cover the minor leagues will fire up once again, and that includes our prospect rankings.
    The system looks surprisingly strong. Despite a flurry of trades over the last 18 months or so, the Twins still have a top nucleus of elite talent, and the franchise enjoys solid upper-level pitching depth. They're a little low on gamechangers at the elite positions—centerfield and shortstop—but so is basically every system, and Minnesota could easily cover that deficiency with a healthy season from Emmanuel Rodriguez and continued development from their two DSL stars. Remember: tier matters more than ranking.
    Royce Lewis 6’2” / 200 (Prev: 1) Age: 23
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Nothing has changed my view of Royce Lewis since I last updated my list. He’s a potentially franchise-altering talent with a frustrating lack of baseball in his recent resume. Lewis’ short playing time in 2022 was a revelation, as he checked significant boxes—his ability to play shortstop and his hitting prowess—before the brutal knee injury cut off his time playing baseball. A much quieter batting stance appears to have unlocked his hitting potential. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do when he is healthy again.
    Brooks Lee 6’2” / 205 (Prev: 2) Age: 21
    Position: SS/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If you think Brooks Lee deserves to be in the one spot, I can’t argue with you; Lee is an incredibly safe bet to hit well, no matter where his defensive home is. Despite being drafted just seven months ago, Lee reached AA, playing in a handful of games for Wichita before calling it a season; he smoked A+ ball with a 140 wRC+. His immense hitting pedigree, combined with his lineage as a coach’s son indeed points towards an ideal makeup package that should serve him well as he transitions to big leaguer. He’ll probably impact the 2023 Twins and will undoubtedly affect the team in 2024.                                                        
    -------------------------       
    Emmanuel Rodriguez 5’10” / 210 (Prev: 4) Age: 19
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Potentially the most dynamic prospect in Minnesota’s system, Emmanuel Rodriguez’s nuclear 2022 fell violently when he tore his ACL in June. Still, Rodriguez walked an absurd 28.6% of the time while slugging .551 in a league that favors pitchers. Granted, it was just a 199 plate appearance sample. Still, I’m excited to see Rodriguez return to action healthy, and he could quickly become the Twins’ best prospect sometime next season.
    Noah Miller 6’1” / 190 (Prev: 3)    Age: 20
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A
    I am too high on Noah Miller; I will remain too high on Noah Miller until his hitting falls entirely off a cliff. Prospects who are locks to play shortstop do not grow on trees—at least none that I know—and Miller’s bat is just good enough to keep him a valuable contributor at the position. If it clicks offensively—and his strike zone awareness is already elite—we’re looking at a potential successor to Carlos Correa in a few years; he’ll need to gain more power, though.
    Marco Raya 6’1” / 170 (Prev: 8) Age: 20
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    “[Marco] Raya’s slider is Charon, come to ferry batters back to the dugout,” wrote Jeffery Paternostro for Baseball Prospectus in November—a perfect sentence. Raya carries the same risk all pitchers do—injury potential, a future in the bullpen—compounded by his smaller frame. But if he can stay healthy, Raya could vault into the top of the Twins rotation, dominating hitters with a compelling four-pitch mix and a bulldog mentality. Raya struck out 28.9% of batters over 65 innings with Fort Myers in 2022. 
    Jose Salas 6’2” / 191 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A+
    A new name! A critical, underrated addition to the Pablo López trade, Jose Salas adds another intriguing infield wrinkle to a system bursting with “people who can play shortstop,” not necessarily “shortstops.” A super young 19 in A+, Salas hit like an overwhelmed prospect, but some AFL seasoning plus an off-season of recovery could cleanse him anew. Salas hit .267/.355/.421 in A ball before his promotion in 2022. 
    Edouard Julien 6’2” / 195 (Prev: 7) Age: 23
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If this were a list of favorite prospects, Edouard Julien would be top three, potentially sitting at the top spot. What’s not to love? The lefty smoked AA Wichita with a .300/.441/.490 line and then hit—and I’m not kidding here—.400/.563/.686 in the Arizona Fall League before ending his terror on pitchers for the season. He lacks a defensive home, but a team would move Heaven and Earth to find a spot for that bat somewhere. Minnesota added him to the 40-man roster this past season; we will probably see Julien in the majors soon.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
    Connor Prielipp 6’2” / 210 (Prev: 5) Age: 22
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: n/a
    Who is John Galt Connor Prielipp? The baseball world has seen startlingly little from Prielipp, as injuries limited his time with Alabama to seven starts. Still, he owns a mid-90s fastball and a power slider when healthy; 2023 will illuminate his prospect status.
    Simeon Woods Richardson 6’3” / 210 (Prev: 6) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Maybe one of the more crucial cogs in Minnesota’s 2023 pitching machine, Simeon Woods Richardson appears well-set to impact the major league roster soon. Armed with unique fastball traits, Woods Richardson held his own in a harsh Texas League environment in 2022, then torched AAA at the end of the year for fun. He earned enough respect to make his first Twins start—a five-inning outing notable in that he’ll never have to debut again; the nerves are behind him. Still somehow just 22, Woods Richardson struck out 27% of batters in the minors last season.
    -------------------------
    Louie Varland 6’1” / 205 (Prev: 10) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Louie Varland should rank higher on this list, but something in his profile doesn’t fully click for me. His fastball is excellent—a real jumper he can use in any count because of his low angle. But none of his other pitches stood out as difference makers, turning Varland into a one-pitch pitcher. His slider and changeup command was non-existent, and batters brutalized his cutter. That’s a negative paragraph for the supposed 10th-best prospect on the team, but that’s what I’ve seen from Varland, and until it changes, I remain bearish on his starting capabilities. 
    Austin Martin 6’0” / 185 (Prev: 13) Age: 23
    Position: SS/OF
    Highest level reached: AA
    Austin Martin’s wild 2022 bounced him more than any other player around this list. After slugging a dreadful .315 in a hitter’s league, Martin crushed in the Arizona Fall League, showcasing his older, successful mechanics in a dramatic redemption arc. He’s not a shortstop—that much is obvious now, but if his bat is back, then the Twins could have a quality 3-win utility player capable of playing a variety of positions. 2023 will be a crucial test. 
    Matt Wallner 6’5” / 220 (Prev: 9) Age: 25
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: MLB
    It’s hard to hold 18 major league games against a guy, but Matt Wallner’s Adventures in the Outfield stunk enough to deeply sour me on any notions of him replacing Max Kepler soon. The Twins appear to agree. With approximately 30,000 outfielders ahead of him, it would take a series of great tragedies before Wallner earns significant MLB playing time soon. Still, he shaved points off his strikeout rate in 2022—the biggest knock against him—and he could ride his outstanding power stroke to an elongated playing career. 
    Yasser Mercedes 6’2” / 175 (Prev: 11) Age: 18
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Yasser Mercedes did things as a 17-year-old that teenagers aren’t supposed to do. Yes, it was in the noisy environment that is the DSL, but 30 steals with a .555 slugging percentage is impressive, no matter the level. Mercedes will likely play in rookie ball in 2023, and I imagine his prospect package will become much more apparent in 2024 when he’ll still be just 19. 
    David Festa 6’6” / 185 (Prev: 20) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A+
    One of the most “pop-uppiest” prospect in the Twins system in 2022, David Festa commands a tremendous fastball/slider combo that torched hitters in the low minors. Although his numbers dropped following a promotion to A+ ball, Festa punctuated his season with a 10-strikeout performance over six shutout innings in a playoff game against the Cubs. We will see how Festa pitches in a tougher environment in 2023.
    Misael Urbina 6’0” / 190 (Prev: 12) Age: 20
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Misael Urbina is an excellent example of why prospect evaluations are a snapshot in time, not the law in written form: he couldn’t hit for any power in 2021 but re-played A ball again in 2022 and showcased a much-improved power stroke. Soon to be 21, Urbina should unleash even more strength this year, potentially shooting him further up the list. 
    -------------------------
    Brent Headrick 6’6” / 235 (Prev: 14) Age: 25
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A surprise 40-man addition, Brent Headrick’s numbers are perhaps more impressive than his raw tools. His breaker is a bit of a looping pitch, which MLB hitters–especially righties—could lay off of, but his fastball lands perfectly at the top of the zone, and his command is good enough that the breaker shape may not matter. He will probably impact the Twins in 2023—though it’s unclear in what capacity—and he could become a regular, reliable lefty swingman. 
    Jordan Balazovic 6’5” / 215 (Prev: 15) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AAA
    How do you rank Jordan Balazovic? Long considered the promised arm, delivered by our wonderful friends Up North, Balazovic faced a nightmare 2022 season, one so hideous that I don’t even want to post any stats from it. The Twins claimed he was healthy, but such a shocking drop-off in performance is almost unbelievable; hopefully 2023 will be a kinder year for Balazovic.
    Ronny Henriquez 5’10” / 155 (Prev: 17) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    One of the more exciting arms in Minnesota’s system, Ronny Henriquez spent a few months getting bullied by AAA hitters before turning around and delivering an adequate July through end-of-season performance. Armed with a fastball, slider, and changeup, Henriquez will pepper well-commanded off-speed pitches around the zone, hopefully enticing the hitter to bite before the end of the at-bat. His issue? A fastball that ends up either 1. In the heart of the strike zone 2. In the gap (if he’s lucky) 3. In the hands of a fan sitting in right-center field. Whether Henriquez can improve his heater will determine his success at the major league level. 
    Noah Cardenas 6’1” / 195 (Prev: 18) Age: 23
    Position: C
    Highest level reached: A
    I am still trying to understand why Noah Cardenas is not more well-regarded as a prospect. Catchers who hit for a 146 wRC+ aren’t common, and while he was older than your average A-ball hitter, I feel confident that Cardenas should continue to hit as he elevates through the system. Although catcher development is often strange, so he may run into weird pitfalls and unusual traps that keep him from improving linearly. 
    Jose Rodriguez 6’2” / 196 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 17
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Like Yasser Mercedes, Jose Rodriguez is a 17-year-old whose only time in professional baseball is in the DSL—a sign that all hype should involve grains of salt and the such. Still, as a player even younger than most DSL hitters, Rodriguez pounded 13 homers and slugged over .600. He’s about as far away from the majors as possible. Still, you should keep his name in mind over the next few years as a potential big-league powerhouse. 
    Cody Laweryson 6’4” / 205 (Prev: 23) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A personal favorite, Cody Laweryson prefers to trick hitters with his pitching motion: a lanky, swan-like delivery that combines the sudden violence of Carter Capps with the grace of Joe Ryan. Lawyerson crushed AA, striking out over 30% of hitters while holding an ERA just over 1.00. The Twins left him unprotected in the rule 5 draft, and no other team claimed him, giving Laweryson another year to prove that his play isn’t a fluke.
    Cole Sands 6’3” / 215 (Prev: 16) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Cole Sands owns one of the nastiest pitches in Minnesota’s system: a whirling breaking ball, here to alter planes and send batters home wondering if they even saw the pitch. The issue? The offering moves so much that Sands has difficulty commanding the pitch. He mixes in an effective splitter—which actually outperformed his breaker by xwOBA during his time in the majors—but his fastball drags down his profile. Sands might be a kitchen sink reliever if he doesn’t improve his heater. 
    Blayne Enlow 6’3” / 170 (Prev: 14) Age: 23
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    Blayne Enlow pitched in an entire season for the first time since 2019, and his results were mixed. He struck out 24.8% of hitters—which is good—but walked 11.6% of them—which is not good. The Twins DFA’d him earlier in the offseason, but after no team claimed him, Enlow will have another year in the system to prove he was worth his high draft pick. 
    Tanner Schobel 5’10” / 170 (Prev: 27) Age: 21
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: A
    The Twins sent Tanner Schobel on the fast track, pushing their 2022 2nd-round pick to A Ball, where he held his own. Although lacking in power, Schobel could carve out a career as a contact/OBP/defense threat capable of putting together a 3 WAR season if everything works out; many teams could use a player like that. 
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo 6’1” / 160 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    A newcomer, Alexander Hidalgo joined the Twins in the Gio Urshela trade. The Angels handled him with kid gloves, as he didn’t touch 40 innings despite making 10 starts. The owner of a plus changeup, Hidalgo’s pitch mix is otherwise unimpressive, but he could grow into an off-speed specialist if he finds more consistency with his curveball; his fastball lacks crucial characteristics. 
    Matt Canterino 6’2” / 222 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    I highly doubt that Matt Canterino will even become an effective starter for the Twins. His minor league innings total is barren, and the righty looks to be standing in a long line of Rice products driven into the ground by an indifferent coaching staff. Still—and this is the only thing keeping him on the list—his electric stuff could allow him to live as a 1-2 inning reliever.
    Alex Isola 6’1” / 215 (Prev: 24) Age: 24
    Position: C/1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A 29th-round pick, Alex Isola has hit well at every step in his minor league journey. He owns a well-rounded hitting package, trading off a touch of power for excellent plate control (13.0% walk rate vs. 18.2% K rate at AA), and could find himself playing some first base for the Twins if a few injuries take out key players. 
    Cesar Lares 6’0” / 155 (Prev: 28) Age: 19
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Another DSL prospect, Cesar Lares crushed his competition in 2022, holding an impressive 2.23 FIP over 46 innings. Again, he’s literally a teenager; we don’t know much about how he’ll perform against older, tougher competition, but he appears to be on the right track. Keep his name in mind. 
    Aaron Sabato 6’2” / 230 (Prev: 29) Age: 23
    Position: 1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    For two years now, Aaron Sabato has done just enough to keep his name in these prospect conversations, but time is running out for the former 1st-round pick. After hitting well at A+ ball, AA smacked into Sabato like a truck; whether he can recover in 2023 will potentially define his time as a Twins prospect.
    Yunior Severino 6’1” / 189 (Prev: 25) Age: 23
    Position: 2B/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A post-hype prospect received after the Braves got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, Yunior Severino broke out with big numbers at A+ ball before falling back to earth at AA. We will see if he can rebound at a higher level.
    Honorable mentions:
    Brayan Medina, RHP:
    Brayan Medina came over in the Chris Paddack trade and struggled to throw strikes in his time at Rookie Ball. He can touch the mid-90s and works well off a curveball.
    Danny De Andrade, 3B/SS:
    Danny De Andrade is an all-around player, lacking in one elite category but doing everything mostly well. He has yet to break out of rookie ball and could burst with his first (probable) playing time in full-season ball. 
    Kala’i Rosario, OF:
    Kala’i Rosario strikes out far too much, but he has good power for a 20-year-old and could improve with extra seasoning.
    Michael Helman, 2B/OF:
    Michael Helman hasn’t exploded with an overwhelming season yet, but he’s snuck his way into AAA, and his overall package could serve him well if the Twins need to call him up.
    Alerick Soularie, 2B/OF:
    Alerick Soularie still hasn’t tapped into his power potential, which makes his high strikeout rate hard to stomach. Still, he could figure it out any day now and shoot back up this list.
     
  15. Like
    Matt Braun reacted to Alex Boxwell for a blog entry, Happy Holidays, Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is.   
    Alright, Twins fans... time to put your money where your mouth is. If it's all about spending money, if it's all about pushing the budget where it "should be", if it's all about signing a pitcher, once he receives his imminent release, it's time to sign Trevor Bauer.
    You're sick and tired of the low-risk pitching signings with no ceiling? Here ya go. An arm with ace-type stuff, a wild amount of baggage, and every player I know has hated him more than getting leftover concessions for the post-game spread. 
    On Thursday, Major League Baseball announced that an arbitrator reduced the suspension of Trevor Bauer, which has placed the Dodgers in an uncomfortable position that will force their hand sooner rather than later; likely his release. The Dodgers have until January 6th to add him to the 40-man roster, trade him or release him. Happy Holidays to the Dodgers front office... They have been tight-lipped on his future likely in hopes of acquiring a piece in a trade for Bauer. 
    We have seen this play out in a similar fashion in the NFL with the more than cringe-worthy Deshaun Watson scenario. Media backlash and less than stellar performance from a player with layers of rust. I wanted nothing to do with Trevor Bauer before the suspension and I want even less to do with him and his vlog now.
    For all our fans slamming the table for we need pitching or we need an ace... here's your opportunity, do you really just want pitching that bad? Or does it actually matter where the money goes and who walks into the clubhouse? As a lifelong Twins fan, if it takes bringing in a guy like this, I'd rather not win and honestly, we'd be better off with less talent and a better clubhouse. We live in a world where everything has turned into WWE. It doesn't matter how you make people feel anymore, you're just rewarded for making people feel something.
    In my experience playing with guys who have been 1st round picks, played in The Show, or never saw the field in college, one of my favorite things about baseball players is when people ask- "What was playing with 'insert players name' like?" The first thing people say is either "Great dude" or "Eh... kinda sucks to be around". People that didn't play always want to know how good people were and then ballplayers tell you what kind of guy they are. It's fascinating. For whatever reason, when you're in the clubhouse with guys it's almost subconscious, your first instinct is 'How does this person make you feel?' and I love that about baseball.
    Maybe it's my Holiday spirit showing through but I want to see us get back to being remembered for the right reasons. Hold a door open for someone, tell someone you love them, and brush the snow off your neighbor's car. These are the things that make humans great. We can consciously make decisions for the better and we can choose to do right. I had the honor of playing for the winningest coach in Big Ten history, and an even better human being than a coach- John Anderson (go gophers). The quote he beat into us that will stick with me forever- "No one will remember your batting average, your ERA, or how many awards you won. Your teammates will remember how you made them feel and the relationships you built here." Let's take a step back from the "notice me" culture we have built and get back to putting others before ourselves.
    This winter, be a good person and say no to Trevor Bauer. He can make $10,000 a month playing in Mexico, that's still a nice living.
     
     
  16. Like
    Matt Braun reacted to Nick Hanzlik for a blog entry, Peanuts, Crackerjack and D&D?   
    I want to start off this entry by saying that I am no writer. I joined Twins Daily so that I could follow the blog of a life-long friend of mine, who is much more talented than I. Shout out to Alex Boxwell, former Gopher outfielder and the next Ernest Hemmingway (follow his blog and become enlightened).
    Maybe it’s the holidays being around the corner or the fact that I am snowed in and bored, but after what is appearing to be the mundane end to what could have (and should have?) been a historic FA signing period for the Minnesota Twins, I felt the need to find some positives and reflect on why I should continue to give my time to a team I follow with a passion. As well as why I should keep up with a sport that appears to be dying.
    The answer is a seemingly strange one and stems from the origins of how I became interested in baseball as a kid. Growing up I was super into all the nerdy things. Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, comic books, video games, you name it. Then I received MVP Baseball 2005 (Manny cover) as a gift on my 10th birthday. I had zero interest in sports at this time, but my best friend (RIP Brandyn) insisted that I try it so I caved and began to play. It was the greatest gift a nerd could receive. The in-depth simulation, the statistics, the attention to detail, stadium creation, owner mode, everything about that game kept me glued to my computer screen. That game is literally how I became interested in baseball. I was horribly unathletic but I decided to sign up for Little League the following Spring. I was terrible, I mean TERRIBLE, unwatchable even for an 11-year-old. Each year I managed to get a bit better and through sheer love of the game I willed myself onto the varsity baseball team my junior year of High School (as a PO obviously, hitting is hard). As I began to spend more time with skilled athletes, the personalities of the people I spent my time with changed drastically, and the true beauty of baseball revealed itself. It became a wonderful bridge between nerdom and sports culture.
    As I have gotten older, I have realized I am far from alone in experiencing this ‘world between worlds,’ something about baseball fascinates nerds unlike any other sport. Maybe it’s the heavy influence of statistics, maybe it’s the fact that you don’t need to be a world class athlete to play it, who knows, but there is no denying that nerds love baseball. Just look at Dungeons and Dragons, an amazing game I suggest everyone tries at least once in their life. That game, which I think most people would consider to be the first game that used character stat sheets and involved freedom of choice, came out in 1974. Strat-O-Matic, a baseball simulation game using character sheets, statistics and dice rolling like that of D&D, came out in 1961. That is 13 years prior...
    I have played D&D almost every Tuesday for the last 6 years and I can tell you that anyone watching such a game without having played, is going to fall asleep. However, that does not mean there isn’t anything going on. It’s just a heavily nuanced world filled with strategy, branching narratives, statistics, probability and larger than life characters.
    Look at baseball now, every moment has nuance and complexity that leads to anticipation of 1000 different outcomes. I understand there aren’t seven-foot-tall specimens flying around dunking on each other, or 250-pound dudes colliding in full pads, but the game is more complex than that. A matchup between the likes of Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer is beyond interesting. Every pitch something changes. What pitch was thrown? Where was it thrown? How has the hitter been approached by the league? How has the hitter been approached by the specific pitcher? Are there runners on base? What’s the score? What inning is it? All of this can change with every pitch and the mental warfare between hitter and pitcher is absolutely fascinating.
    I read an article a while back that made a similar connection between D&D, nerdom and baseball. They made the point that it would be amazing to bring together a D&D party in full cosplay and a group of hardcore baseball fans in team attire, face paint, foam fingers and all. I found this to be hilarious, and I imagine the look on their faces when they realize how remarkably similar they are, would be priceless.
    At the end of the day, I will always follow the Minnesota Twins and baseball as a whole. It is a beautifully complex game that bridges two wonderfully unique yet similar worlds. At times it feels like David vs Goliath for both the franchise among the league, and baseball among the other major sports, which are often seen as more action oriented and ‘exciting.’ Hopefully MLB can find a way to market the game to the next generation better so it doesn’t go belly up. It’s scary to think of the 11-year-old kid who almost never got to experience the immersive culture and beauty of baseball. It would have been a damn shame if the game had never reached me. Friendships that would never have been made, memories lost and a passion left undiscovered. With the game in its current state, that may have been my reality.
  17. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from DocBauer for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (August) + Writeups   
    Before hopping into the list, I wanted to say a few things about this process: I started these writeups to kill time, but I’ve found them fun to write, and the community has responded with great support. My system lacks the professionalism of scouts, but I want to strive toward respectability; this edition is the one I’m most proud of. Previous write-ups lacked consistency, and I failed to consider crucial aspects of a player’s performance. Reminder: tier matters more than specific ranking.
    Royce Lewis (Prev: 1) I think Royce Lewis is a legitimate franchise-altering player with a greater potential influence than any other prospect. He still has questions—his ability at shortstop remains in flux—but no one can deny his aura, a baseball and personal sense innate in his spirit. He also hit like a machine before suffering his injury in 2022. 
    Brooks Lee (Prev: 2) Brooks Lee could fall out of bed and hit. Since the last writeup, the 2022 1st round pick packed his bags for Cedar Rapids and—while still being younger than the average hitter at the level—has continued to hit. The switch-hitter is walking 9.3% of the time while striking out in just 17.3% of plate appearances. Is Lee a shortstop long-term? Probably not; his clumsiness at the position has already shown, but the bat is such a lock that his position barely matters. Lee could legitimately start at 3rd base for the Twins in 2023 if they desire to push him.                                                                  
    -------------------------       
    Noah Miller (Prev: 3) Noah Miller’s numbers have declined since his white-hot start, but I remain high on the 19-year-old for two reasons: he’s a virtual lock to play shortstop, which is rare and vital, and his hitting peripherals remain solid. The extra-base authority isn’t there, but his elite 15.8% walk rate and stomachable 23.5% strikeout rate reflect a deep understanding of the strike zone. The power should come later, but even if it doesn’t, Miller could stick around for a while as a glove-first shortstop; that’s a piece many teams could use. 
    Emmanuel Rodriguez (Prev: 4)    You could flip-flop Emmanuel Rodriguez and Miller without hearing a peep from me; the young outfielder steamrolled low-A with an athletic force unique amongst Twins prospects at that level. Naturally, he suffered a brutal knee injury that curtailed his season, but I don’t anticipate a drop-off for Rodriguez when he returns in 2023. Expect big things from him once he’s healthy.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
    Connor Prielipp (Prev: 5) Professional baseball has still not yet seen Connor Prielipp on the mound, but that barely affects his prospect stock; the college lefty possesses immense “boom” ability if he can return from Tommy John surgery. He owns arguably the best slider of anyone drafted in 2022; his fastball is a plus pitch as well. There have been whispers—a tweet here and there—about Prielipp pitching before the season ends, but nothing is official yet. He will be a name to remember for 2023.
    Simeon Woods Richardson (Prev: 7) This is where I admit a past error in these lists: I failed to consider Simeon Woods Richardson’s league while evaluating him. The Texas League tilts towards hitters, so while Woods Richardson’s numbers looked fine, they reflected an impressive ability to thrive in a competitive context built to suffocate him. His play with St. Paul since his promotion proves this; the young righty made two excellent starts, showcasing an elevated strikeout rate of 34.3%. Woods Richardson should impact the Twins soon, and he may become a rotation staple for years.
    Edouard Julien (Prev: 10) The lack of support for Edouard Julien as a genuine top prospect is baffling to me; the French-Canadian is a walking machine with pop; do people understand how rare that is? August was another dominant month, as he slashed .290/.426/.473 with three stolen bases (and three caught attempts). Sure, he’s a defender in name only, but the Twins could stomach merely passable defense at 2nd base to go with a tremendous bat—they’re already doing that with Jorge Polanco. I earnestly think Julien could be the starting 2nd baseman sooner than later—or at least he should be.
    -------------------------
    Marco Raya (Prev: 9) Marco Raya only pitched twice in August—probably due to injury, but I couldn’t confirm this—yet, he remains a marvel through his raw stuff. “Electric” is the only word that can accurately describe him; his slider, curveball, and fastball possess desirable traits; whether he can put it all together is the big question. The Twins treated the youngster with kid gloves, so he will end 2022 with fewer innings than other, older prospects. Still, Raya remains a talented and intriguing arm. 
    Matt Wallner (Prev: 11) I was low on Matt Wallner to start the season—even while he crushed the ball, his strikeouts always caused me to hesitate when considering his prospect status. What changed? Wallner has shaved points of his strikeout rate—it now sits at 26.9% in August, which I can live with. He’s still an on-base wizard and owns a bazooka out in right field; these tools add up to a volatile player, but one with more impact than I gave him credit for earlier in the season. If it all clicks, we’re looking at a consistent ~3-win player who could crack a few All-Star games.
    Louie Varland (Prev: 13) Like Woods Richardson, my failure to consider the context of Louie Varland’s league caused me to rank him far too low on these lists. Varland isn’t just a cute hometown kid story; the righty owns a deadly fastball that overpowers hitters and sets a strong foundation from which his other pitches can grow. Those secondary offerings remain iffy, but Joe Ryan has proved that a great fastball can lead to success early in one’s major league career while other pitches develop in the background. Varland has struck out 27.5% of hitters at AAA. 
    Yasser Mercedes (Prev: 19) Of all the young players on this list, Yasser Mercedes possess the best chance of becoming a dynamic star; the 17-year-old—yes, he still needs an adult in the car while driving in the United States—lit the DSL on fire, stealing 30 bags while slashing .355/.420/.555. He played 41 games. If that’s a sign of things to come—and that’s a major “if” given his age—the Twins could have a future superstar. 
    Misael Urbina (Prev: 23) Misael Urbina is growing into some power and looks like a much finer prospect because of it. In 2021, the athletic outfielder couldn’t find a double if someone pointed it out on a map, but he’s now slugging .506 with a slightly worse BB/K rate; I think both he and the Twins are ok with that. There’s still a lot of development in front of Urbina, but 2022 is an excellent step in the right direction.
    Austin Martin (Prev: 6) I’ve been downright mean to Austin Martin on these lists, and I think that needs a slight correction. He’s not a shortstop, and his lack of power still scares me, but you don’t see guys who walk about as often as they strike out every day, and he could carve out a niche as a super-utility guy in the mold of Nick Gordon. Such a role represents a step-down from his potential when coming out of Vanderbilt, but that type of player is still valuable for a major-league team. His drop on my list results from other players rising, not necessarily him falling.
    -------------------------
    Brent Headrick (Prev: 15) Brent Headrick spent all of August at AA and posted impressive numbers; he struck out 36.8% of batters against just a 6.3% walk rate. The lefty is creeping up on 100 innings pitched in 2022, and I imagine the Twins will strongly consider protecting him from the rule 5 draft after the season.
    Jordan Balazovic (Prev: 8 ) Jordan Balazovic might be the hardest player to rank in the system; the righty crushed his competition in previous years, but AAA batters have taken him to town, and I have no clue what to make of it. August was another rough month for Balazovic, and I’m left wondering if his stuff fell off a cliff or if the team is forcing him to pitch through an obviously debilitating injury; batters have hit 16 homers against him in just 49 ⅔ innings.
    Cole Sands (Prev: 16) I have a soft spot for Cole Sands; the righty commands one of the finest sweeping breaking balls in the system, and his new split-change could aid him against left-handed batters. Unfortunately, a right elbow contusion halted his great run in the majors, but he’s set to start a rehab assignment soon. The timing of his injury could not have been worse as Sands had pitched seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts since re-joining the Twins in August. 
    Ronny Henriquez (Prev: 17) On the surface, Ronny Henriquez’s 2022 season looks like a disaster; the righty owns a 5.79 ERA after all, but promising signs are hiding underneath the surface; he’s a 22-year-old with very little professional experience coming off a month where he punched out 28% of batters. I think the Twins will sit on him for a while, instead choosing to let Henriquez develop at AAA for most of 2023 before giving him the call.
    Noah Cardenas (Prev: 21) Much like his Noah brethren—the one with “Miller” as his surname—Noah Cardenas represents my favorite kind of position-playing prospect: a lock at a demanding defensive position with a chance to provide above-average value through their bat. Cardenas is smoking A ball as an old-for-the-level hitter—he’s walking more than he’s striking out—so the real challenge will begin once he sees more advanced pitching. For now, he’s a great piece to dream on.
    Jose Rodriguez (Prev: Unranked) As a 17-year-old, Jose Rodriguez bashed 13 homers in 55 games in the DSL. Yes, we should all be wary of hyping up literal teenagers, but that total led the league, and Rodriguez did it as a well-touted prospect who also batted .289 with a palatable strikeout rate of 23.7%. Like Mercedes, Rodriguez’s development will be a slow burn, but his initial impression has been excellent.
    David Festa (Prev: 12) David Festa has cooled significantly since his excellent start to the season, enough, in fact, that it raises questions about whether he was playing over his head. The college arm had a great ERA in August (1.15), but a dreadful FIP (5.27) thanks to a mediocre strikeout rate and an inflated walk rate (20.6% and 11.8%, respectively). I believe he can turn it around—he’s younger than the average A+ pitcher—but September will be crucial for Festa.
    Blayne Enlow (Prev: 14) August was a fine month for Blayne Enlow; he worked almost entirely in relief, striking out 20.5% of hitters against a high but still palatable 9.5% walk rate. The move to the pen raises some eyebrows—is this a long-term move or perhaps a play to shuffle him upwards towards the majors quickly? I believe in the latter, so Enlow remains a well-regarded prospect. 
    Chris Williams (Prev: 20) Hiding behind the word “interesting” is a soft move, but I’m not sure any other word can more precisely describe what Chris Williams is. The 25-year-old popped out of his bed one day earlier in the season, started mashing, and hasn’t slowed down since. A promotion to AAA has only fueled his fire as he’s slashing .241/.368/.667 since joining the Saints and has hit seven homers in 17 games.
    -------------------------
    Cody Laweryson (Prev: Unranked) There’s something irresistibly intriguing about Cody Laweryson; the righty doesn’t throw hard and has never impacted major prospect lists, but his equal parts graceful and aggressive delivery has befuddled AA hitters. Laweryson carried a 2.13 FIP in August, buoyed by a monstrous 31.9% K rate; he split time as a starter and a reliever. It’s low-hanging fruit, but one is reminded of Joe Ryan when Laweryson is at his best.
    Alex Isola (Prev: Unranked) 29th-round picks don’t usually stick around as Alex Isola has; the righty has more than held his own at AA and could find himself in promotion conversations soon. You don’t see catchers with a 12.3% walk rate and a sub-20% K rate too often.
    Yunior Severino (Prev: 25) Yunior Severino brewed as a prospect for years before annihilating A+ ball to start 2022; the Twins were so impressed that they promoted him to AA a few days after the start of August. The higher competition level has stifled Severino—the walks and strikeouts have each trended in directions hitters don’t like—but the sample is so small that I’m willing to overlook it for now. September will be an important month for Severino.
    Alerick Soularie (Prev: 24) Alerick Soularie was in the process of melting A+ ball pitchers in August before the Kernels suddenly stopped playing him halfway through the month. If he’s injured—and I don’t see another answer—then I hope it doesn’t steal too much playing time; Soularie is already an old-for-his-level hitter with serious strikeout problems; he needs at-bats.
    Tanner Schobel (Prev: Unranked) The Twins drafted Tanner Schobel in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft. He has all of 81 plate appearances, so judging him off his stats is unwise; he’ll need more time to marinate before his prospect picture becomes clearer.
    Cesar Lares (Prev: 22) Cesar Lares is a DSL statistical outlier to whom I attached myself and will refuse to ignore. He led the DSL in K% amongst pitchers with at least 40 innings (37.6%) and, I mean, that’s an impressive number! Lares just turned 19, so his early dominance is an encouraging sign; next season will be important for the lefty.
    Aaron Sabato (Prev: 26) I’ve been harsh on Sabato—perhaps unfairly; maybe justified—but I may need to change my tune; he has now twice bounced back from dreadful starts at a level to match expectations drawn from his 1st round pedigree. It’s been no different at Wichita; the righty’s slash line is unsightly, but he’s walked a hearty amount since his promotion (11.3%), and his BABIP is dirt-low. There’s a good chance he turns it around in September.    
    Jair Camargo (Prev: Unranked) A number of players could have claimed this spot, but I chose Jair Camargo, the hitting machine. Camargo has slashed a lopsided .275/.320/.514 throughout a few levels of the minors in 2022, perhaps revealing legitimate power from the catching position. He’s still younger than the average AA hitter.
     
     
  18. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from Canton Clark for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (August) + Writeups   
    Before hopping into the list, I wanted to say a few things about this process: I started these writeups to kill time, but I’ve found them fun to write, and the community has responded with great support. My system lacks the professionalism of scouts, but I want to strive toward respectability; this edition is the one I’m most proud of. Previous write-ups lacked consistency, and I failed to consider crucial aspects of a player’s performance. Reminder: tier matters more than specific ranking.
    Royce Lewis (Prev: 1) I think Royce Lewis is a legitimate franchise-altering player with a greater potential influence than any other prospect. He still has questions—his ability at shortstop remains in flux—but no one can deny his aura, a baseball and personal sense innate in his spirit. He also hit like a machine before suffering his injury in 2022. 
    Brooks Lee (Prev: 2) Brooks Lee could fall out of bed and hit. Since the last writeup, the 2022 1st round pick packed his bags for Cedar Rapids and—while still being younger than the average hitter at the level—has continued to hit. The switch-hitter is walking 9.3% of the time while striking out in just 17.3% of plate appearances. Is Lee a shortstop long-term? Probably not; his clumsiness at the position has already shown, but the bat is such a lock that his position barely matters. Lee could legitimately start at 3rd base for the Twins in 2023 if they desire to push him.                                                                  
    -------------------------       
    Noah Miller (Prev: 3) Noah Miller’s numbers have declined since his white-hot start, but I remain high on the 19-year-old for two reasons: he’s a virtual lock to play shortstop, which is rare and vital, and his hitting peripherals remain solid. The extra-base authority isn’t there, but his elite 15.8% walk rate and stomachable 23.5% strikeout rate reflect a deep understanding of the strike zone. The power should come later, but even if it doesn’t, Miller could stick around for a while as a glove-first shortstop; that’s a piece many teams could use. 
    Emmanuel Rodriguez (Prev: 4)    You could flip-flop Emmanuel Rodriguez and Miller without hearing a peep from me; the young outfielder steamrolled low-A with an athletic force unique amongst Twins prospects at that level. Naturally, he suffered a brutal knee injury that curtailed his season, but I don’t anticipate a drop-off for Rodriguez when he returns in 2023. Expect big things from him once he’s healthy.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
    Connor Prielipp (Prev: 5) Professional baseball has still not yet seen Connor Prielipp on the mound, but that barely affects his prospect stock; the college lefty possesses immense “boom” ability if he can return from Tommy John surgery. He owns arguably the best slider of anyone drafted in 2022; his fastball is a plus pitch as well. There have been whispers—a tweet here and there—about Prielipp pitching before the season ends, but nothing is official yet. He will be a name to remember for 2023.
    Simeon Woods Richardson (Prev: 7) This is where I admit a past error in these lists: I failed to consider Simeon Woods Richardson’s league while evaluating him. The Texas League tilts towards hitters, so while Woods Richardson’s numbers looked fine, they reflected an impressive ability to thrive in a competitive context built to suffocate him. His play with St. Paul since his promotion proves this; the young righty made two excellent starts, showcasing an elevated strikeout rate of 34.3%. Woods Richardson should impact the Twins soon, and he may become a rotation staple for years.
    Edouard Julien (Prev: 10) The lack of support for Edouard Julien as a genuine top prospect is baffling to me; the French-Canadian is a walking machine with pop; do people understand how rare that is? August was another dominant month, as he slashed .290/.426/.473 with three stolen bases (and three caught attempts). Sure, he’s a defender in name only, but the Twins could stomach merely passable defense at 2nd base to go with a tremendous bat—they’re already doing that with Jorge Polanco. I earnestly think Julien could be the starting 2nd baseman sooner than later—or at least he should be.
    -------------------------
    Marco Raya (Prev: 9) Marco Raya only pitched twice in August—probably due to injury, but I couldn’t confirm this—yet, he remains a marvel through his raw stuff. “Electric” is the only word that can accurately describe him; his slider, curveball, and fastball possess desirable traits; whether he can put it all together is the big question. The Twins treated the youngster with kid gloves, so he will end 2022 with fewer innings than other, older prospects. Still, Raya remains a talented and intriguing arm. 
    Matt Wallner (Prev: 11) I was low on Matt Wallner to start the season—even while he crushed the ball, his strikeouts always caused me to hesitate when considering his prospect status. What changed? Wallner has shaved points of his strikeout rate—it now sits at 26.9% in August, which I can live with. He’s still an on-base wizard and owns a bazooka out in right field; these tools add up to a volatile player, but one with more impact than I gave him credit for earlier in the season. If it all clicks, we’re looking at a consistent ~3-win player who could crack a few All-Star games.
    Louie Varland (Prev: 13) Like Woods Richardson, my failure to consider the context of Louie Varland’s league caused me to rank him far too low on these lists. Varland isn’t just a cute hometown kid story; the righty owns a deadly fastball that overpowers hitters and sets a strong foundation from which his other pitches can grow. Those secondary offerings remain iffy, but Joe Ryan has proved that a great fastball can lead to success early in one’s major league career while other pitches develop in the background. Varland has struck out 27.5% of hitters at AAA. 
    Yasser Mercedes (Prev: 19) Of all the young players on this list, Yasser Mercedes possess the best chance of becoming a dynamic star; the 17-year-old—yes, he still needs an adult in the car while driving in the United States—lit the DSL on fire, stealing 30 bags while slashing .355/.420/.555. He played 41 games. If that’s a sign of things to come—and that’s a major “if” given his age—the Twins could have a future superstar. 
    Misael Urbina (Prev: 23) Misael Urbina is growing into some power and looks like a much finer prospect because of it. In 2021, the athletic outfielder couldn’t find a double if someone pointed it out on a map, but he’s now slugging .506 with a slightly worse BB/K rate; I think both he and the Twins are ok with that. There’s still a lot of development in front of Urbina, but 2022 is an excellent step in the right direction.
    Austin Martin (Prev: 6) I’ve been downright mean to Austin Martin on these lists, and I think that needs a slight correction. He’s not a shortstop, and his lack of power still scares me, but you don’t see guys who walk about as often as they strike out every day, and he could carve out a niche as a super-utility guy in the mold of Nick Gordon. Such a role represents a step-down from his potential when coming out of Vanderbilt, but that type of player is still valuable for a major-league team. His drop on my list results from other players rising, not necessarily him falling.
    -------------------------
    Brent Headrick (Prev: 15) Brent Headrick spent all of August at AA and posted impressive numbers; he struck out 36.8% of batters against just a 6.3% walk rate. The lefty is creeping up on 100 innings pitched in 2022, and I imagine the Twins will strongly consider protecting him from the rule 5 draft after the season.
    Jordan Balazovic (Prev: 8 ) Jordan Balazovic might be the hardest player to rank in the system; the righty crushed his competition in previous years, but AAA batters have taken him to town, and I have no clue what to make of it. August was another rough month for Balazovic, and I’m left wondering if his stuff fell off a cliff or if the team is forcing him to pitch through an obviously debilitating injury; batters have hit 16 homers against him in just 49 ⅔ innings.
    Cole Sands (Prev: 16) I have a soft spot for Cole Sands; the righty commands one of the finest sweeping breaking balls in the system, and his new split-change could aid him against left-handed batters. Unfortunately, a right elbow contusion halted his great run in the majors, but he’s set to start a rehab assignment soon. The timing of his injury could not have been worse as Sands had pitched seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts since re-joining the Twins in August. 
    Ronny Henriquez (Prev: 17) On the surface, Ronny Henriquez’s 2022 season looks like a disaster; the righty owns a 5.79 ERA after all, but promising signs are hiding underneath the surface; he’s a 22-year-old with very little professional experience coming off a month where he punched out 28% of batters. I think the Twins will sit on him for a while, instead choosing to let Henriquez develop at AAA for most of 2023 before giving him the call.
    Noah Cardenas (Prev: 21) Much like his Noah brethren—the one with “Miller” as his surname—Noah Cardenas represents my favorite kind of position-playing prospect: a lock at a demanding defensive position with a chance to provide above-average value through their bat. Cardenas is smoking A ball as an old-for-the-level hitter—he’s walking more than he’s striking out—so the real challenge will begin once he sees more advanced pitching. For now, he’s a great piece to dream on.
    Jose Rodriguez (Prev: Unranked) As a 17-year-old, Jose Rodriguez bashed 13 homers in 55 games in the DSL. Yes, we should all be wary of hyping up literal teenagers, but that total led the league, and Rodriguez did it as a well-touted prospect who also batted .289 with a palatable strikeout rate of 23.7%. Like Mercedes, Rodriguez’s development will be a slow burn, but his initial impression has been excellent.
    David Festa (Prev: 12) David Festa has cooled significantly since his excellent start to the season, enough, in fact, that it raises questions about whether he was playing over his head. The college arm had a great ERA in August (1.15), but a dreadful FIP (5.27) thanks to a mediocre strikeout rate and an inflated walk rate (20.6% and 11.8%, respectively). I believe he can turn it around—he’s younger than the average A+ pitcher—but September will be crucial for Festa.
    Blayne Enlow (Prev: 14) August was a fine month for Blayne Enlow; he worked almost entirely in relief, striking out 20.5% of hitters against a high but still palatable 9.5% walk rate. The move to the pen raises some eyebrows—is this a long-term move or perhaps a play to shuffle him upwards towards the majors quickly? I believe in the latter, so Enlow remains a well-regarded prospect. 
    Chris Williams (Prev: 20) Hiding behind the word “interesting” is a soft move, but I’m not sure any other word can more precisely describe what Chris Williams is. The 25-year-old popped out of his bed one day earlier in the season, started mashing, and hasn’t slowed down since. A promotion to AAA has only fueled his fire as he’s slashing .241/.368/.667 since joining the Saints and has hit seven homers in 17 games.
    -------------------------
    Cody Laweryson (Prev: Unranked) There’s something irresistibly intriguing about Cody Laweryson; the righty doesn’t throw hard and has never impacted major prospect lists, but his equal parts graceful and aggressive delivery has befuddled AA hitters. Laweryson carried a 2.13 FIP in August, buoyed by a monstrous 31.9% K rate; he split time as a starter and a reliever. It’s low-hanging fruit, but one is reminded of Joe Ryan when Laweryson is at his best.
    Alex Isola (Prev: Unranked) 29th-round picks don’t usually stick around as Alex Isola has; the righty has more than held his own at AA and could find himself in promotion conversations soon. You don’t see catchers with a 12.3% walk rate and a sub-20% K rate too often.
    Yunior Severino (Prev: 25) Yunior Severino brewed as a prospect for years before annihilating A+ ball to start 2022; the Twins were so impressed that they promoted him to AA a few days after the start of August. The higher competition level has stifled Severino—the walks and strikeouts have each trended in directions hitters don’t like—but the sample is so small that I’m willing to overlook it for now. September will be an important month for Severino.
    Alerick Soularie (Prev: 24) Alerick Soularie was in the process of melting A+ ball pitchers in August before the Kernels suddenly stopped playing him halfway through the month. If he’s injured—and I don’t see another answer—then I hope it doesn’t steal too much playing time; Soularie is already an old-for-his-level hitter with serious strikeout problems; he needs at-bats.
    Tanner Schobel (Prev: Unranked) The Twins drafted Tanner Schobel in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft. He has all of 81 plate appearances, so judging him off his stats is unwise; he’ll need more time to marinate before his prospect picture becomes clearer.
    Cesar Lares (Prev: 22) Cesar Lares is a DSL statistical outlier to whom I attached myself and will refuse to ignore. He led the DSL in K% amongst pitchers with at least 40 innings (37.6%) and, I mean, that’s an impressive number! Lares just turned 19, so his early dominance is an encouraging sign; next season will be important for the lefty.
    Aaron Sabato (Prev: 26) I’ve been harsh on Sabato—perhaps unfairly; maybe justified—but I may need to change my tune; he has now twice bounced back from dreadful starts at a level to match expectations drawn from his 1st round pedigree. It’s been no different at Wichita; the righty’s slash line is unsightly, but he’s walked a hearty amount since his promotion (11.3%), and his BABIP is dirt-low. There’s a good chance he turns it around in September.    
    Jair Camargo (Prev: Unranked) A number of players could have claimed this spot, but I chose Jair Camargo, the hitting machine. Camargo has slashed a lopsided .275/.320/.514 throughout a few levels of the minors in 2022, perhaps revealing legitimate power from the catching position. He’s still younger than the average AA hitter.
     
     
  19. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from nclahammer for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (August) + Writeups   
    Before hopping into the list, I wanted to say a few things about this process: I started these writeups to kill time, but I’ve found them fun to write, and the community has responded with great support. My system lacks the professionalism of scouts, but I want to strive toward respectability; this edition is the one I’m most proud of. Previous write-ups lacked consistency, and I failed to consider crucial aspects of a player’s performance. Reminder: tier matters more than specific ranking.
    Royce Lewis (Prev: 1) I think Royce Lewis is a legitimate franchise-altering player with a greater potential influence than any other prospect. He still has questions—his ability at shortstop remains in flux—but no one can deny his aura, a baseball and personal sense innate in his spirit. He also hit like a machine before suffering his injury in 2022. 
    Brooks Lee (Prev: 2) Brooks Lee could fall out of bed and hit. Since the last writeup, the 2022 1st round pick packed his bags for Cedar Rapids and—while still being younger than the average hitter at the level—has continued to hit. The switch-hitter is walking 9.3% of the time while striking out in just 17.3% of plate appearances. Is Lee a shortstop long-term? Probably not; his clumsiness at the position has already shown, but the bat is such a lock that his position barely matters. Lee could legitimately start at 3rd base for the Twins in 2023 if they desire to push him.                                                                  
    -------------------------       
    Noah Miller (Prev: 3) Noah Miller’s numbers have declined since his white-hot start, but I remain high on the 19-year-old for two reasons: he’s a virtual lock to play shortstop, which is rare and vital, and his hitting peripherals remain solid. The extra-base authority isn’t there, but his elite 15.8% walk rate and stomachable 23.5% strikeout rate reflect a deep understanding of the strike zone. The power should come later, but even if it doesn’t, Miller could stick around for a while as a glove-first shortstop; that’s a piece many teams could use. 
    Emmanuel Rodriguez (Prev: 4)    You could flip-flop Emmanuel Rodriguez and Miller without hearing a peep from me; the young outfielder steamrolled low-A with an athletic force unique amongst Twins prospects at that level. Naturally, he suffered a brutal knee injury that curtailed his season, but I don’t anticipate a drop-off for Rodriguez when he returns in 2023. Expect big things from him once he’s healthy.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
    Connor Prielipp (Prev: 5) Professional baseball has still not yet seen Connor Prielipp on the mound, but that barely affects his prospect stock; the college lefty possesses immense “boom” ability if he can return from Tommy John surgery. He owns arguably the best slider of anyone drafted in 2022; his fastball is a plus pitch as well. There have been whispers—a tweet here and there—about Prielipp pitching before the season ends, but nothing is official yet. He will be a name to remember for 2023.
    Simeon Woods Richardson (Prev: 7) This is where I admit a past error in these lists: I failed to consider Simeon Woods Richardson’s league while evaluating him. The Texas League tilts towards hitters, so while Woods Richardson’s numbers looked fine, they reflected an impressive ability to thrive in a competitive context built to suffocate him. His play with St. Paul since his promotion proves this; the young righty made two excellent starts, showcasing an elevated strikeout rate of 34.3%. Woods Richardson should impact the Twins soon, and he may become a rotation staple for years.
    Edouard Julien (Prev: 10) The lack of support for Edouard Julien as a genuine top prospect is baffling to me; the French-Canadian is a walking machine with pop; do people understand how rare that is? August was another dominant month, as he slashed .290/.426/.473 with three stolen bases (and three caught attempts). Sure, he’s a defender in name only, but the Twins could stomach merely passable defense at 2nd base to go with a tremendous bat—they’re already doing that with Jorge Polanco. I earnestly think Julien could be the starting 2nd baseman sooner than later—or at least he should be.
    -------------------------
    Marco Raya (Prev: 9) Marco Raya only pitched twice in August—probably due to injury, but I couldn’t confirm this—yet, he remains a marvel through his raw stuff. “Electric” is the only word that can accurately describe him; his slider, curveball, and fastball possess desirable traits; whether he can put it all together is the big question. The Twins treated the youngster with kid gloves, so he will end 2022 with fewer innings than other, older prospects. Still, Raya remains a talented and intriguing arm. 
    Matt Wallner (Prev: 11) I was low on Matt Wallner to start the season—even while he crushed the ball, his strikeouts always caused me to hesitate when considering his prospect status. What changed? Wallner has shaved points of his strikeout rate—it now sits at 26.9% in August, which I can live with. He’s still an on-base wizard and owns a bazooka out in right field; these tools add up to a volatile player, but one with more impact than I gave him credit for earlier in the season. If it all clicks, we’re looking at a consistent ~3-win player who could crack a few All-Star games.
    Louie Varland (Prev: 13) Like Woods Richardson, my failure to consider the context of Louie Varland’s league caused me to rank him far too low on these lists. Varland isn’t just a cute hometown kid story; the righty owns a deadly fastball that overpowers hitters and sets a strong foundation from which his other pitches can grow. Those secondary offerings remain iffy, but Joe Ryan has proved that a great fastball can lead to success early in one’s major league career while other pitches develop in the background. Varland has struck out 27.5% of hitters at AAA. 
    Yasser Mercedes (Prev: 19) Of all the young players on this list, Yasser Mercedes possess the best chance of becoming a dynamic star; the 17-year-old—yes, he still needs an adult in the car while driving in the United States—lit the DSL on fire, stealing 30 bags while slashing .355/.420/.555. He played 41 games. If that’s a sign of things to come—and that’s a major “if” given his age—the Twins could have a future superstar. 
    Misael Urbina (Prev: 23) Misael Urbina is growing into some power and looks like a much finer prospect because of it. In 2021, the athletic outfielder couldn’t find a double if someone pointed it out on a map, but he’s now slugging .506 with a slightly worse BB/K rate; I think both he and the Twins are ok with that. There’s still a lot of development in front of Urbina, but 2022 is an excellent step in the right direction.
    Austin Martin (Prev: 6) I’ve been downright mean to Austin Martin on these lists, and I think that needs a slight correction. He’s not a shortstop, and his lack of power still scares me, but you don’t see guys who walk about as often as they strike out every day, and he could carve out a niche as a super-utility guy in the mold of Nick Gordon. Such a role represents a step-down from his potential when coming out of Vanderbilt, but that type of player is still valuable for a major-league team. His drop on my list results from other players rising, not necessarily him falling.
    -------------------------
    Brent Headrick (Prev: 15) Brent Headrick spent all of August at AA and posted impressive numbers; he struck out 36.8% of batters against just a 6.3% walk rate. The lefty is creeping up on 100 innings pitched in 2022, and I imagine the Twins will strongly consider protecting him from the rule 5 draft after the season.
    Jordan Balazovic (Prev: 8 ) Jordan Balazovic might be the hardest player to rank in the system; the righty crushed his competition in previous years, but AAA batters have taken him to town, and I have no clue what to make of it. August was another rough month for Balazovic, and I’m left wondering if his stuff fell off a cliff or if the team is forcing him to pitch through an obviously debilitating injury; batters have hit 16 homers against him in just 49 ⅔ innings.
    Cole Sands (Prev: 16) I have a soft spot for Cole Sands; the righty commands one of the finest sweeping breaking balls in the system, and his new split-change could aid him against left-handed batters. Unfortunately, a right elbow contusion halted his great run in the majors, but he’s set to start a rehab assignment soon. The timing of his injury could not have been worse as Sands had pitched seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts since re-joining the Twins in August. 
    Ronny Henriquez (Prev: 17) On the surface, Ronny Henriquez’s 2022 season looks like a disaster; the righty owns a 5.79 ERA after all, but promising signs are hiding underneath the surface; he’s a 22-year-old with very little professional experience coming off a month where he punched out 28% of batters. I think the Twins will sit on him for a while, instead choosing to let Henriquez develop at AAA for most of 2023 before giving him the call.
    Noah Cardenas (Prev: 21) Much like his Noah brethren—the one with “Miller” as his surname—Noah Cardenas represents my favorite kind of position-playing prospect: a lock at a demanding defensive position with a chance to provide above-average value through their bat. Cardenas is smoking A ball as an old-for-the-level hitter—he’s walking more than he’s striking out—so the real challenge will begin once he sees more advanced pitching. For now, he’s a great piece to dream on.
    Jose Rodriguez (Prev: Unranked) As a 17-year-old, Jose Rodriguez bashed 13 homers in 55 games in the DSL. Yes, we should all be wary of hyping up literal teenagers, but that total led the league, and Rodriguez did it as a well-touted prospect who also batted .289 with a palatable strikeout rate of 23.7%. Like Mercedes, Rodriguez’s development will be a slow burn, but his initial impression has been excellent.
    David Festa (Prev: 12) David Festa has cooled significantly since his excellent start to the season, enough, in fact, that it raises questions about whether he was playing over his head. The college arm had a great ERA in August (1.15), but a dreadful FIP (5.27) thanks to a mediocre strikeout rate and an inflated walk rate (20.6% and 11.8%, respectively). I believe he can turn it around—he’s younger than the average A+ pitcher—but September will be crucial for Festa.
    Blayne Enlow (Prev: 14) August was a fine month for Blayne Enlow; he worked almost entirely in relief, striking out 20.5% of hitters against a high but still palatable 9.5% walk rate. The move to the pen raises some eyebrows—is this a long-term move or perhaps a play to shuffle him upwards towards the majors quickly? I believe in the latter, so Enlow remains a well-regarded prospect. 
    Chris Williams (Prev: 20) Hiding behind the word “interesting” is a soft move, but I’m not sure any other word can more precisely describe what Chris Williams is. The 25-year-old popped out of his bed one day earlier in the season, started mashing, and hasn’t slowed down since. A promotion to AAA has only fueled his fire as he’s slashing .241/.368/.667 since joining the Saints and has hit seven homers in 17 games.
    -------------------------
    Cody Laweryson (Prev: Unranked) There’s something irresistibly intriguing about Cody Laweryson; the righty doesn’t throw hard and has never impacted major prospect lists, but his equal parts graceful and aggressive delivery has befuddled AA hitters. Laweryson carried a 2.13 FIP in August, buoyed by a monstrous 31.9% K rate; he split time as a starter and a reliever. It’s low-hanging fruit, but one is reminded of Joe Ryan when Laweryson is at his best.
    Alex Isola (Prev: Unranked) 29th-round picks don’t usually stick around as Alex Isola has; the righty has more than held his own at AA and could find himself in promotion conversations soon. You don’t see catchers with a 12.3% walk rate and a sub-20% K rate too often.
    Yunior Severino (Prev: 25) Yunior Severino brewed as a prospect for years before annihilating A+ ball to start 2022; the Twins were so impressed that they promoted him to AA a few days after the start of August. The higher competition level has stifled Severino—the walks and strikeouts have each trended in directions hitters don’t like—but the sample is so small that I’m willing to overlook it for now. September will be an important month for Severino.
    Alerick Soularie (Prev: 24) Alerick Soularie was in the process of melting A+ ball pitchers in August before the Kernels suddenly stopped playing him halfway through the month. If he’s injured—and I don’t see another answer—then I hope it doesn’t steal too much playing time; Soularie is already an old-for-his-level hitter with serious strikeout problems; he needs at-bats.
    Tanner Schobel (Prev: Unranked) The Twins drafted Tanner Schobel in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft. He has all of 81 plate appearances, so judging him off his stats is unwise; he’ll need more time to marinate before his prospect picture becomes clearer.
    Cesar Lares (Prev: 22) Cesar Lares is a DSL statistical outlier to whom I attached myself and will refuse to ignore. He led the DSL in K% amongst pitchers with at least 40 innings (37.6%) and, I mean, that’s an impressive number! Lares just turned 19, so his early dominance is an encouraging sign; next season will be important for the lefty.
    Aaron Sabato (Prev: 26) I’ve been harsh on Sabato—perhaps unfairly; maybe justified—but I may need to change my tune; he has now twice bounced back from dreadful starts at a level to match expectations drawn from his 1st round pedigree. It’s been no different at Wichita; the righty’s slash line is unsightly, but he’s walked a hearty amount since his promotion (11.3%), and his BABIP is dirt-low. There’s a good chance he turns it around in September.    
    Jair Camargo (Prev: Unranked) A number of players could have claimed this spot, but I chose Jair Camargo, the hitting machine. Camargo has slashed a lopsided .275/.320/.514 throughout a few levels of the minors in 2022, perhaps revealing legitimate power from the catching position. He’s still younger than the average AA hitter.
     
     
  20. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from TwinsAce for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (August) + Writeups   
    Before hopping into the list, I wanted to say a few things about this process: I started these writeups to kill time, but I’ve found them fun to write, and the community has responded with great support. My system lacks the professionalism of scouts, but I want to strive toward respectability; this edition is the one I’m most proud of. Previous write-ups lacked consistency, and I failed to consider crucial aspects of a player’s performance. Reminder: tier matters more than specific ranking.
    Royce Lewis (Prev: 1) I think Royce Lewis is a legitimate franchise-altering player with a greater potential influence than any other prospect. He still has questions—his ability at shortstop remains in flux—but no one can deny his aura, a baseball and personal sense innate in his spirit. He also hit like a machine before suffering his injury in 2022. 
    Brooks Lee (Prev: 2) Brooks Lee could fall out of bed and hit. Since the last writeup, the 2022 1st round pick packed his bags for Cedar Rapids and—while still being younger than the average hitter at the level—has continued to hit. The switch-hitter is walking 9.3% of the time while striking out in just 17.3% of plate appearances. Is Lee a shortstop long-term? Probably not; his clumsiness at the position has already shown, but the bat is such a lock that his position barely matters. Lee could legitimately start at 3rd base for the Twins in 2023 if they desire to push him.                                                                  
    -------------------------       
    Noah Miller (Prev: 3) Noah Miller’s numbers have declined since his white-hot start, but I remain high on the 19-year-old for two reasons: he’s a virtual lock to play shortstop, which is rare and vital, and his hitting peripherals remain solid. The extra-base authority isn’t there, but his elite 15.8% walk rate and stomachable 23.5% strikeout rate reflect a deep understanding of the strike zone. The power should come later, but even if it doesn’t, Miller could stick around for a while as a glove-first shortstop; that’s a piece many teams could use. 
    Emmanuel Rodriguez (Prev: 4)    You could flip-flop Emmanuel Rodriguez and Miller without hearing a peep from me; the young outfielder steamrolled low-A with an athletic force unique amongst Twins prospects at that level. Naturally, he suffered a brutal knee injury that curtailed his season, but I don’t anticipate a drop-off for Rodriguez when he returns in 2023. Expect big things from him once he’s healthy.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
    Connor Prielipp (Prev: 5) Professional baseball has still not yet seen Connor Prielipp on the mound, but that barely affects his prospect stock; the college lefty possesses immense “boom” ability if he can return from Tommy John surgery. He owns arguably the best slider of anyone drafted in 2022; his fastball is a plus pitch as well. There have been whispers—a tweet here and there—about Prielipp pitching before the season ends, but nothing is official yet. He will be a name to remember for 2023.
    Simeon Woods Richardson (Prev: 7) This is where I admit a past error in these lists: I failed to consider Simeon Woods Richardson’s league while evaluating him. The Texas League tilts towards hitters, so while Woods Richardson’s numbers looked fine, they reflected an impressive ability to thrive in a competitive context built to suffocate him. His play with St. Paul since his promotion proves this; the young righty made two excellent starts, showcasing an elevated strikeout rate of 34.3%. Woods Richardson should impact the Twins soon, and he may become a rotation staple for years.
    Edouard Julien (Prev: 10) The lack of support for Edouard Julien as a genuine top prospect is baffling to me; the French-Canadian is a walking machine with pop; do people understand how rare that is? August was another dominant month, as he slashed .290/.426/.473 with three stolen bases (and three caught attempts). Sure, he’s a defender in name only, but the Twins could stomach merely passable defense at 2nd base to go with a tremendous bat—they’re already doing that with Jorge Polanco. I earnestly think Julien could be the starting 2nd baseman sooner than later—or at least he should be.
    -------------------------
    Marco Raya (Prev: 9) Marco Raya only pitched twice in August—probably due to injury, but I couldn’t confirm this—yet, he remains a marvel through his raw stuff. “Electric” is the only word that can accurately describe him; his slider, curveball, and fastball possess desirable traits; whether he can put it all together is the big question. The Twins treated the youngster with kid gloves, so he will end 2022 with fewer innings than other, older prospects. Still, Raya remains a talented and intriguing arm. 
    Matt Wallner (Prev: 11) I was low on Matt Wallner to start the season—even while he crushed the ball, his strikeouts always caused me to hesitate when considering his prospect status. What changed? Wallner has shaved points of his strikeout rate—it now sits at 26.9% in August, which I can live with. He’s still an on-base wizard and owns a bazooka out in right field; these tools add up to a volatile player, but one with more impact than I gave him credit for earlier in the season. If it all clicks, we’re looking at a consistent ~3-win player who could crack a few All-Star games.
    Louie Varland (Prev: 13) Like Woods Richardson, my failure to consider the context of Louie Varland’s league caused me to rank him far too low on these lists. Varland isn’t just a cute hometown kid story; the righty owns a deadly fastball that overpowers hitters and sets a strong foundation from which his other pitches can grow. Those secondary offerings remain iffy, but Joe Ryan has proved that a great fastball can lead to success early in one’s major league career while other pitches develop in the background. Varland has struck out 27.5% of hitters at AAA. 
    Yasser Mercedes (Prev: 19) Of all the young players on this list, Yasser Mercedes possess the best chance of becoming a dynamic star; the 17-year-old—yes, he still needs an adult in the car while driving in the United States—lit the DSL on fire, stealing 30 bags while slashing .355/.420/.555. He played 41 games. If that’s a sign of things to come—and that’s a major “if” given his age—the Twins could have a future superstar. 
    Misael Urbina (Prev: 23) Misael Urbina is growing into some power and looks like a much finer prospect because of it. In 2021, the athletic outfielder couldn’t find a double if someone pointed it out on a map, but he’s now slugging .506 with a slightly worse BB/K rate; I think both he and the Twins are ok with that. There’s still a lot of development in front of Urbina, but 2022 is an excellent step in the right direction.
    Austin Martin (Prev: 6) I’ve been downright mean to Austin Martin on these lists, and I think that needs a slight correction. He’s not a shortstop, and his lack of power still scares me, but you don’t see guys who walk about as often as they strike out every day, and he could carve out a niche as a super-utility guy in the mold of Nick Gordon. Such a role represents a step-down from his potential when coming out of Vanderbilt, but that type of player is still valuable for a major-league team. His drop on my list results from other players rising, not necessarily him falling.
    -------------------------
    Brent Headrick (Prev: 15) Brent Headrick spent all of August at AA and posted impressive numbers; he struck out 36.8% of batters against just a 6.3% walk rate. The lefty is creeping up on 100 innings pitched in 2022, and I imagine the Twins will strongly consider protecting him from the rule 5 draft after the season.
    Jordan Balazovic (Prev: 8 ) Jordan Balazovic might be the hardest player to rank in the system; the righty crushed his competition in previous years, but AAA batters have taken him to town, and I have no clue what to make of it. August was another rough month for Balazovic, and I’m left wondering if his stuff fell off a cliff or if the team is forcing him to pitch through an obviously debilitating injury; batters have hit 16 homers against him in just 49 ⅔ innings.
    Cole Sands (Prev: 16) I have a soft spot for Cole Sands; the righty commands one of the finest sweeping breaking balls in the system, and his new split-change could aid him against left-handed batters. Unfortunately, a right elbow contusion halted his great run in the majors, but he’s set to start a rehab assignment soon. The timing of his injury could not have been worse as Sands had pitched seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts since re-joining the Twins in August. 
    Ronny Henriquez (Prev: 17) On the surface, Ronny Henriquez’s 2022 season looks like a disaster; the righty owns a 5.79 ERA after all, but promising signs are hiding underneath the surface; he’s a 22-year-old with very little professional experience coming off a month where he punched out 28% of batters. I think the Twins will sit on him for a while, instead choosing to let Henriquez develop at AAA for most of 2023 before giving him the call.
    Noah Cardenas (Prev: 21) Much like his Noah brethren—the one with “Miller” as his surname—Noah Cardenas represents my favorite kind of position-playing prospect: a lock at a demanding defensive position with a chance to provide above-average value through their bat. Cardenas is smoking A ball as an old-for-the-level hitter—he’s walking more than he’s striking out—so the real challenge will begin once he sees more advanced pitching. For now, he’s a great piece to dream on.
    Jose Rodriguez (Prev: Unranked) As a 17-year-old, Jose Rodriguez bashed 13 homers in 55 games in the DSL. Yes, we should all be wary of hyping up literal teenagers, but that total led the league, and Rodriguez did it as a well-touted prospect who also batted .289 with a palatable strikeout rate of 23.7%. Like Mercedes, Rodriguez’s development will be a slow burn, but his initial impression has been excellent.
    David Festa (Prev: 12) David Festa has cooled significantly since his excellent start to the season, enough, in fact, that it raises questions about whether he was playing over his head. The college arm had a great ERA in August (1.15), but a dreadful FIP (5.27) thanks to a mediocre strikeout rate and an inflated walk rate (20.6% and 11.8%, respectively). I believe he can turn it around—he’s younger than the average A+ pitcher—but September will be crucial for Festa.
    Blayne Enlow (Prev: 14) August was a fine month for Blayne Enlow; he worked almost entirely in relief, striking out 20.5% of hitters against a high but still palatable 9.5% walk rate. The move to the pen raises some eyebrows—is this a long-term move or perhaps a play to shuffle him upwards towards the majors quickly? I believe in the latter, so Enlow remains a well-regarded prospect. 
    Chris Williams (Prev: 20) Hiding behind the word “interesting” is a soft move, but I’m not sure any other word can more precisely describe what Chris Williams is. The 25-year-old popped out of his bed one day earlier in the season, started mashing, and hasn’t slowed down since. A promotion to AAA has only fueled his fire as he’s slashing .241/.368/.667 since joining the Saints and has hit seven homers in 17 games.
    -------------------------
    Cody Laweryson (Prev: Unranked) There’s something irresistibly intriguing about Cody Laweryson; the righty doesn’t throw hard and has never impacted major prospect lists, but his equal parts graceful and aggressive delivery has befuddled AA hitters. Laweryson carried a 2.13 FIP in August, buoyed by a monstrous 31.9% K rate; he split time as a starter and a reliever. It’s low-hanging fruit, but one is reminded of Joe Ryan when Laweryson is at his best.
    Alex Isola (Prev: Unranked) 29th-round picks don’t usually stick around as Alex Isola has; the righty has more than held his own at AA and could find himself in promotion conversations soon. You don’t see catchers with a 12.3% walk rate and a sub-20% K rate too often.
    Yunior Severino (Prev: 25) Yunior Severino brewed as a prospect for years before annihilating A+ ball to start 2022; the Twins were so impressed that they promoted him to AA a few days after the start of August. The higher competition level has stifled Severino—the walks and strikeouts have each trended in directions hitters don’t like—but the sample is so small that I’m willing to overlook it for now. September will be an important month for Severino.
    Alerick Soularie (Prev: 24) Alerick Soularie was in the process of melting A+ ball pitchers in August before the Kernels suddenly stopped playing him halfway through the month. If he’s injured—and I don’t see another answer—then I hope it doesn’t steal too much playing time; Soularie is already an old-for-his-level hitter with serious strikeout problems; he needs at-bats.
    Tanner Schobel (Prev: Unranked) The Twins drafted Tanner Schobel in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft. He has all of 81 plate appearances, so judging him off his stats is unwise; he’ll need more time to marinate before his prospect picture becomes clearer.
    Cesar Lares (Prev: 22) Cesar Lares is a DSL statistical outlier to whom I attached myself and will refuse to ignore. He led the DSL in K% amongst pitchers with at least 40 innings (37.6%) and, I mean, that’s an impressive number! Lares just turned 19, so his early dominance is an encouraging sign; next season will be important for the lefty.
    Aaron Sabato (Prev: 26) I’ve been harsh on Sabato—perhaps unfairly; maybe justified—but I may need to change my tune; he has now twice bounced back from dreadful starts at a level to match expectations drawn from his 1st round pedigree. It’s been no different at Wichita; the righty’s slash line is unsightly, but he’s walked a hearty amount since his promotion (11.3%), and his BABIP is dirt-low. There’s a good chance he turns it around in September.    
    Jair Camargo (Prev: Unranked) A number of players could have claimed this spot, but I chose Jair Camargo, the hitting machine. Camargo has slashed a lopsided .275/.320/.514 throughout a few levels of the minors in 2022, perhaps revealing legitimate power from the catching position. He’s still younger than the average AA hitter.
     
     
  21. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from Karbo for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (July) + Writeups   
    Studs:
    Royce Lewis Nothing has changed here; Royce Lewis is a phenomenally talented shortstop on the mend with his second ACL tear. All we can do is hope he’ll return quickly enough next season to impact the team meaningfully.             
    Brooks Lee It’s a miracle that Brooks Lee fell to the Twins at 8. We should thank the Cubs and Mets every day—the former for reaching on a pop-up college arm; the latter for turning their noses at Kumar Rocker in 2021, allowing the Rangers to snag him, re-creating the Vanderbilt 1-2 punch. Lee is a great prospect, checking all the offensive boxes with a pedigree as a coach’s son. Sure, he may not stick at shortstop, but people have said that about every infielder ever drafted; only time will prove whether he will have to switch positions. Until then, we can cherish having a guy who slashed .357/.462/.664 in 2022.                                                                           
    -------------------------       
    Guys I love:
    Noah Miller I don’t like placing Noah Miller this high; either Austin Martin or Jordan Balazovic should be here, but they have underperformed so drastically that I can’t, in good conscience, continue to act like nothing is wrong with them. Miller’s defense remains elite, but his bat has lost its early-season thunder; he slugged .270 in July. I don’t know when I saw a slugging percent that low. Nick Punto slugged .323 over his career. Miller cut down on the Ks, but he’ll need to re-find his power before this placement reflects his ability instead of needing someone to be here.
    Emmanuel Rodriguez     Emmanuel Rodriguez hasn’t played since his brutal injury, but not playing means he couldn’t tank his value by performing poorly. It’s funny how prospect evaluation can work like that; he’s like Schrödinger's baseball player. His strikeouts were still high, but we’re talking about a 19-year-old who walked 28.6% of the time while slugging .551 during his first stint at A-ball; beggars can’t be choosers.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          
    Connor Prielipp The pessimist would point out that a freshly-drafted pitcher being the best pitching prospect in the Twins system is a bad sign, but I choose to look at it in another way: Connor Prielipp had a legitimate claim to go first overall before undergoing Tommy John surgery. The procedure is still a severe setback, but modern health advancements have prettied up its boogeyman face, and all reports point towards his stuff returning to previous levels. I’m incredibly excited to see what Prielipp can do in the Twins organization. 
    -------------------------
    Guys I like with reservations:
    Austin Martin Checking Austin Martin’s slash line is like learning that a childhood hero is a scumbag; it’s depressing, and a harsh reminder that the world sucks. Martin’s strikeout rate has plummeted to an impressive rate (13.8%), but he has 11 extra-base hits on the year. 11. It’s August. Martin hasn’t played since the month’s opening game—perhaps the Twins have him locked away deep in the chasms of Fort Myers until he builds more than Jamey Carrollian power—but maybe the reset helps him find his old groove. Until that happens, I have to drop him down the list.
    Simeon Woods Richardson Simeon Woods Richardson quietly slid to the IL in June—the Wind Surge never announced the move, which I thought was odd—but has finally returned. I remain a skeptic; his high walk rate, low BABIP, and low home run rate all scream vicious regression, but Woods Richardson has avoided that trap, and given that every other top pitching arm has capitulated, he’ll remain here by default. I wouldn’t be surprised if the team calls him up out of desperation for somebody, anybody who can save this pitching staff.
    Jordan Balazovic Jordan Balazovic’s AAA numbers don’t even make sense, and not in a good way; he’s walking a batter every two innings, and his HR/FB rate is a cartoonish 38.9%. Let me put it in another way: over 34 ⅔ innings, Balazovic has allowed 14 home runs. It’s clear that he isn’t healthy, and I have little clue as to why the team continues to let him die on the mound when he can’t net outs in his current state. I’ll keep Balazovic at this spot because he has dominated hitters in a way I have not seen in a post-José Berríos landscape.
    Marco Raya The Twins still refuse to let Marco Raya pitch longer than four innings in a game—yes, I know that’s how teams deal with young pitchers these days, but it still feels ridiculous, especially since no research exists that proves this strategy works—but he has crushed his competition. Raya struck out 24.3% of batters he faced in July, and he has been almost untouchable since mid-June. I don’t anticipate a promotion soon, but Raya is well-positioned for a big 2023 if he can stay healthy.
    Edouard Julien Edouard Julien keeps chugging, taking walks, and putting up impressive slash lines. Julien hit .287/.443/.517 in July, a healthy line that will play in any environment. He also walked as much as he struck out. The worry with Julien is still this: where is his position, and will he have enough power to sustain production there? If he’s a second baseman, that answer becomes more straightforward, but we will have to wait and see. He should be in St. Paul soon.
    Matt Wallner I previously said that a player needs to have legendary power to offset a strikeout rate like Matt Wallner’s, and he may have that jolt. Wallner’s homer in the Future Games was comical, and it’s easy to imagine his exit velocities translating well in the major leagues. AAA has not been kind to Wallner, but he struggled during his first taste of AA also, so that could just be how the big guy operates. Is he Joey Gallo 2.0? Is that something the Twins want? We shall see.
    David Festa David Festa is holding his own at A+ ball; the righty is 3rd in the system in innings and owns an ERA/FIP/xFIP slash line of 2.24/2.83/3.39. He struggled with command in July, walking 11.8% of batters, but I believe that to be a blip, not a worrisome trend. He also picked off three straight baserunners during a game in July, which I’ve never seen before in a baseball match.
    -------------------------
    Guys I’m intrigued by:
    Louie Varland I’ve been one of the low-men on Louie Varland for a while. His peripherals weren’t great last season, and he’s continued that trend at AA ball in 2022. Varland’s July was good (3.91 ERA, 18.6 K-BB%), but those numbers are inflated by an eight-strikeout performance at the end of the month; the rest of his starts were inconsistent and a little sloppy. 
    Blayne Enlow I’m still cutting Blayne Enlow an enormous amount of slack. The righty is trying to pitch his first mostly-full season since 2019, and getting him accustomed to pitching again is the goal for 2022. July was remarkable for his ERA—he allowed two runs over 13 innings—but the walk rate was elevated, and, well, it was just a 13-inning sample. Hopefully, we can see more dominant performances, like his three-inning, five strikeout relief outing to conclude the month.
    Brent Headrick Brent Headrick crushed A+ ball and earned a promotion to AAin July. He made one disastrous outing—seriously, don’t look it up—but I can chalk that up to jitters around making his first AA appearance. Headrick has the potential to fly up this list even further as the season continues, and he’s now undoubtedly the best left-handed pitching prospect in the system after Cade Povich and Steve Hajjar found new homes.
    Cole Sands Given the Twins’ inability to pitch at even a watchable level, I’m surprised that Cole Sands hasn’t earned an extended leash in the majors. He sometimes struggles with command, but his sweeper is deadly enough to coax an extra strikeout or two when he really needs it. Sands struck out 30.4% of batters at AAA in July; I think the team could use that.
    Ronny Henriquez In July, Ronny Henriquez secretly turned a corner; the newly acquired ex-Ranger farmhand put up an ERA of 3.05 with a healthy K-BB% of 20.9. Henriquez had struggled—and I mean struggled—at AAA to begin the season, but this great month could prove to be the launching point for the 22-year-old. Add him to the list of arms the team could look to in their pursuit of pitching.                                                                         
    Matt Canterino  Matt Canterino is a reliever who can’t stay healthy. I don’t care about stuff or anything else; a pitcher with a James Paxton-level of durability should not rank highly on any prospect list. If Canterino returns to AA and throws strikes, the team should move him to the major league bullpen before August ends.
    -------------------------
    Possible diamonds in the rough:
     Yasser Mercedes It’s typically unwise to rank DSL players, but Yasser Mercedes commanded a signing bonus of $1.7 million; we aren’t dealing with a random Joe here. As a 17-year-old, Mercedes is hitting well during his first stint in professional baseball; he’s currently good for a .324/.394/.532 slash line. 
    Chris Williams Missing Chris Williams was the most glaring mistake in my previous ranking. I’ve had my eye on Williams since he put together some powerful stretches in 2019, but his play has been dreadfully inconsistent. The 25-year-old slumped during an injury-plagued 2021 season, but he’s evolved into the Terminator recently, slugging a truly absurd .708 in July. He may be somewhat positionless, but you’ll move heaven and earth to find a place for that bat.
    Noah Cardenas Noah Cardenas is walking 18.2% of the time at A ball, and I feel like no one has mentioned it. Cardenas can already field the position well, so the newfound offensive boost could give his game a new, exciting wrinkle. I would suggest keeping your eye on him. 
    Cesar Lares Cesar Lares is striking out 44.2% of hitters faced at the DSL. This concludes fun facts with Cesar Lares.
    Misael Urbina Misael Urbina had a late start to the season—visa issues limited his movement—but it seems like that problem is far behind Urbina. The talented outfielder slugged .589 at A ball in July, a good sign considering that power was his most prominent issue in 2021. Urbina could quickly move up a tier or two if he continues to smoke the ball well.
    Alerick Soularie Alerick Soularie shed the strike-out problems that clouded his prospect status; he punched out in just 19.8% of plate appearances in July while hitting for a solid 123 wRC+. His power output is still low, but that feels like a nitpick in an otherwise excellent hitting package.
    Yunior Severino Post-post-hype can still exist for a ballplayer; a statement never more true than with Yunior Severino. After the Twins snagged the infielder when the Braves got caught with their hand in the cookie jar, it seemed that Severino had greatness in his future. That timeline branched off into a far more boring story, but Severino did slug .690 in July, so he may still have a chance.
    -------------------------
    Guys:
    Aaron Sabato The first spot in my “guys” list goes to one of the more frustrating prospects in the Twins’ system. Aaron Sabato has not yet put together an extended period of excellent performance–at least not in my eyes—but he did slug .709 in July while bringing home a Midwest League Hitter of the Week award. Is this a hot streak or a sign of things to come? I’m pessimistic, but we will see.
    Keoni Cavaco Keoni Cavaco remaining on this list is the baseball equivalent of the lifetime achievement award; he hasn’t impressed since the team took him in the 1st round in 2019, and he’s only here because of that pedigree. He did crawl above a league-average hitting line in July (110 wRC+), but his strikeout problem is still critical.
    Michael Helman Is Michael Helman just a feel-good story? Maybe. He’s 26 and is just holding his own at AAA, not dominating. No one attribute sticks out about Helman, but there’s a slight chance he’s called up in a pinch and proves enough to stick around.
    Kala’i Rosario Kala’i Rosario’s hitting peripherals—walks and strikeouts especially—look gross and not in a good way: a 5.8% walk rate compared to a 35.8% K rate. Still, the young, athletic outfielder has serious power potential, which could lead him to future success.
    Brayan Medina I still don’t know what to make of Brayan Medina, and he’s walking a small village in the low minors. He has almost no professional innings to his name, though, so I’m willing to wait before critically analyzing him.
    This group of names looked a lot better a few days ago when I started this writeup; of course, the team was always going to lose crucial players if they wanted to buy enough to offset their major league weaknesses. Still, I don’t feel like they lost major foundational pieces; Spencer Steer hurts, but he had no immediate fit on the Twins’ roster; Cade Povich is the primary, painful loss in my eyes. I think Povich will continue to evolve and become a valuable starting pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles. I’m lower than a lot on Christian Encarnacion-Strand—he’s a butcher on the field, and that’s difficult for a major league team to hide—Steve Hajjar has command and shoulder issues, and Sawyer Gipson-Long feels replaceable. This system still isn’t great, but I think it’s in a better spot than it was last month—and that’s while considering the players they lost at the deadline.
     
  22. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from Dman for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (July) + Writeups   
    Studs:
    Royce Lewis Nothing has changed here; Royce Lewis is a phenomenally talented shortstop on the mend with his second ACL tear. All we can do is hope he’ll return quickly enough next season to impact the team meaningfully.             
    Brooks Lee It’s a miracle that Brooks Lee fell to the Twins at 8. We should thank the Cubs and Mets every day—the former for reaching on a pop-up college arm; the latter for turning their noses at Kumar Rocker in 2021, allowing the Rangers to snag him, re-creating the Vanderbilt 1-2 punch. Lee is a great prospect, checking all the offensive boxes with a pedigree as a coach’s son. Sure, he may not stick at shortstop, but people have said that about every infielder ever drafted; only time will prove whether he will have to switch positions. Until then, we can cherish having a guy who slashed .357/.462/.664 in 2022.                                                                           
    -------------------------       
    Guys I love:
    Noah Miller I don’t like placing Noah Miller this high; either Austin Martin or Jordan Balazovic should be here, but they have underperformed so drastically that I can’t, in good conscience, continue to act like nothing is wrong with them. Miller’s defense remains elite, but his bat has lost its early-season thunder; he slugged .270 in July. I don’t know when I saw a slugging percent that low. Nick Punto slugged .323 over his career. Miller cut down on the Ks, but he’ll need to re-find his power before this placement reflects his ability instead of needing someone to be here.
    Emmanuel Rodriguez     Emmanuel Rodriguez hasn’t played since his brutal injury, but not playing means he couldn’t tank his value by performing poorly. It’s funny how prospect evaluation can work like that; he’s like Schrödinger's baseball player. His strikeouts were still high, but we’re talking about a 19-year-old who walked 28.6% of the time while slugging .551 during his first stint at A-ball; beggars can’t be choosers.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          
    Connor Prielipp The pessimist would point out that a freshly-drafted pitcher being the best pitching prospect in the Twins system is a bad sign, but I choose to look at it in another way: Connor Prielipp had a legitimate claim to go first overall before undergoing Tommy John surgery. The procedure is still a severe setback, but modern health advancements have prettied up its boogeyman face, and all reports point towards his stuff returning to previous levels. I’m incredibly excited to see what Prielipp can do in the Twins organization. 
    -------------------------
    Guys I like with reservations:
    Austin Martin Checking Austin Martin’s slash line is like learning that a childhood hero is a scumbag; it’s depressing, and a harsh reminder that the world sucks. Martin’s strikeout rate has plummeted to an impressive rate (13.8%), but he has 11 extra-base hits on the year. 11. It’s August. Martin hasn’t played since the month’s opening game—perhaps the Twins have him locked away deep in the chasms of Fort Myers until he builds more than Jamey Carrollian power—but maybe the reset helps him find his old groove. Until that happens, I have to drop him down the list.
    Simeon Woods Richardson Simeon Woods Richardson quietly slid to the IL in June—the Wind Surge never announced the move, which I thought was odd—but has finally returned. I remain a skeptic; his high walk rate, low BABIP, and low home run rate all scream vicious regression, but Woods Richardson has avoided that trap, and given that every other top pitching arm has capitulated, he’ll remain here by default. I wouldn’t be surprised if the team calls him up out of desperation for somebody, anybody who can save this pitching staff.
    Jordan Balazovic Jordan Balazovic’s AAA numbers don’t even make sense, and not in a good way; he’s walking a batter every two innings, and his HR/FB rate is a cartoonish 38.9%. Let me put it in another way: over 34 ⅔ innings, Balazovic has allowed 14 home runs. It’s clear that he isn’t healthy, and I have little clue as to why the team continues to let him die on the mound when he can’t net outs in his current state. I’ll keep Balazovic at this spot because he has dominated hitters in a way I have not seen in a post-José Berríos landscape.
    Marco Raya The Twins still refuse to let Marco Raya pitch longer than four innings in a game—yes, I know that’s how teams deal with young pitchers these days, but it still feels ridiculous, especially since no research exists that proves this strategy works—but he has crushed his competition. Raya struck out 24.3% of batters he faced in July, and he has been almost untouchable since mid-June. I don’t anticipate a promotion soon, but Raya is well-positioned for a big 2023 if he can stay healthy.
    Edouard Julien Edouard Julien keeps chugging, taking walks, and putting up impressive slash lines. Julien hit .287/.443/.517 in July, a healthy line that will play in any environment. He also walked as much as he struck out. The worry with Julien is still this: where is his position, and will he have enough power to sustain production there? If he’s a second baseman, that answer becomes more straightforward, but we will have to wait and see. He should be in St. Paul soon.
    Matt Wallner I previously said that a player needs to have legendary power to offset a strikeout rate like Matt Wallner’s, and he may have that jolt. Wallner’s homer in the Future Games was comical, and it’s easy to imagine his exit velocities translating well in the major leagues. AAA has not been kind to Wallner, but he struggled during his first taste of AA also, so that could just be how the big guy operates. Is he Joey Gallo 2.0? Is that something the Twins want? We shall see.
    David Festa David Festa is holding his own at A+ ball; the righty is 3rd in the system in innings and owns an ERA/FIP/xFIP slash line of 2.24/2.83/3.39. He struggled with command in July, walking 11.8% of batters, but I believe that to be a blip, not a worrisome trend. He also picked off three straight baserunners during a game in July, which I’ve never seen before in a baseball match.
    -------------------------
    Guys I’m intrigued by:
    Louie Varland I’ve been one of the low-men on Louie Varland for a while. His peripherals weren’t great last season, and he’s continued that trend at AA ball in 2022. Varland’s July was good (3.91 ERA, 18.6 K-BB%), but those numbers are inflated by an eight-strikeout performance at the end of the month; the rest of his starts were inconsistent and a little sloppy. 
    Blayne Enlow I’m still cutting Blayne Enlow an enormous amount of slack. The righty is trying to pitch his first mostly-full season since 2019, and getting him accustomed to pitching again is the goal for 2022. July was remarkable for his ERA—he allowed two runs over 13 innings—but the walk rate was elevated, and, well, it was just a 13-inning sample. Hopefully, we can see more dominant performances, like his three-inning, five strikeout relief outing to conclude the month.
    Brent Headrick Brent Headrick crushed A+ ball and earned a promotion to AAin July. He made one disastrous outing—seriously, don’t look it up—but I can chalk that up to jitters around making his first AA appearance. Headrick has the potential to fly up this list even further as the season continues, and he’s now undoubtedly the best left-handed pitching prospect in the system after Cade Povich and Steve Hajjar found new homes.
    Cole Sands Given the Twins’ inability to pitch at even a watchable level, I’m surprised that Cole Sands hasn’t earned an extended leash in the majors. He sometimes struggles with command, but his sweeper is deadly enough to coax an extra strikeout or two when he really needs it. Sands struck out 30.4% of batters at AAA in July; I think the team could use that.
    Ronny Henriquez In July, Ronny Henriquez secretly turned a corner; the newly acquired ex-Ranger farmhand put up an ERA of 3.05 with a healthy K-BB% of 20.9. Henriquez had struggled—and I mean struggled—at AAA to begin the season, but this great month could prove to be the launching point for the 22-year-old. Add him to the list of arms the team could look to in their pursuit of pitching.                                                                         
    Matt Canterino  Matt Canterino is a reliever who can’t stay healthy. I don’t care about stuff or anything else; a pitcher with a James Paxton-level of durability should not rank highly on any prospect list. If Canterino returns to AA and throws strikes, the team should move him to the major league bullpen before August ends.
    -------------------------
    Possible diamonds in the rough:
     Yasser Mercedes It’s typically unwise to rank DSL players, but Yasser Mercedes commanded a signing bonus of $1.7 million; we aren’t dealing with a random Joe here. As a 17-year-old, Mercedes is hitting well during his first stint in professional baseball; he’s currently good for a .324/.394/.532 slash line. 
    Chris Williams Missing Chris Williams was the most glaring mistake in my previous ranking. I’ve had my eye on Williams since he put together some powerful stretches in 2019, but his play has been dreadfully inconsistent. The 25-year-old slumped during an injury-plagued 2021 season, but he’s evolved into the Terminator recently, slugging a truly absurd .708 in July. He may be somewhat positionless, but you’ll move heaven and earth to find a place for that bat.
    Noah Cardenas Noah Cardenas is walking 18.2% of the time at A ball, and I feel like no one has mentioned it. Cardenas can already field the position well, so the newfound offensive boost could give his game a new, exciting wrinkle. I would suggest keeping your eye on him. 
    Cesar Lares Cesar Lares is striking out 44.2% of hitters faced at the DSL. This concludes fun facts with Cesar Lares.
    Misael Urbina Misael Urbina had a late start to the season—visa issues limited his movement—but it seems like that problem is far behind Urbina. The talented outfielder slugged .589 at A ball in July, a good sign considering that power was his most prominent issue in 2021. Urbina could quickly move up a tier or two if he continues to smoke the ball well.
    Alerick Soularie Alerick Soularie shed the strike-out problems that clouded his prospect status; he punched out in just 19.8% of plate appearances in July while hitting for a solid 123 wRC+. His power output is still low, but that feels like a nitpick in an otherwise excellent hitting package.
    Yunior Severino Post-post-hype can still exist for a ballplayer; a statement never more true than with Yunior Severino. After the Twins snagged the infielder when the Braves got caught with their hand in the cookie jar, it seemed that Severino had greatness in his future. That timeline branched off into a far more boring story, but Severino did slug .690 in July, so he may still have a chance.
    -------------------------
    Guys:
    Aaron Sabato The first spot in my “guys” list goes to one of the more frustrating prospects in the Twins’ system. Aaron Sabato has not yet put together an extended period of excellent performance–at least not in my eyes—but he did slug .709 in July while bringing home a Midwest League Hitter of the Week award. Is this a hot streak or a sign of things to come? I’m pessimistic, but we will see.
    Keoni Cavaco Keoni Cavaco remaining on this list is the baseball equivalent of the lifetime achievement award; he hasn’t impressed since the team took him in the 1st round in 2019, and he’s only here because of that pedigree. He did crawl above a league-average hitting line in July (110 wRC+), but his strikeout problem is still critical.
    Michael Helman Is Michael Helman just a feel-good story? Maybe. He’s 26 and is just holding his own at AAA, not dominating. No one attribute sticks out about Helman, but there’s a slight chance he’s called up in a pinch and proves enough to stick around.
    Kala’i Rosario Kala’i Rosario’s hitting peripherals—walks and strikeouts especially—look gross and not in a good way: a 5.8% walk rate compared to a 35.8% K rate. Still, the young, athletic outfielder has serious power potential, which could lead him to future success.
    Brayan Medina I still don’t know what to make of Brayan Medina, and he’s walking a small village in the low minors. He has almost no professional innings to his name, though, so I’m willing to wait before critically analyzing him.
    This group of names looked a lot better a few days ago when I started this writeup; of course, the team was always going to lose crucial players if they wanted to buy enough to offset their major league weaknesses. Still, I don’t feel like they lost major foundational pieces; Spencer Steer hurts, but he had no immediate fit on the Twins’ roster; Cade Povich is the primary, painful loss in my eyes. I think Povich will continue to evolve and become a valuable starting pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles. I’m lower than a lot on Christian Encarnacion-Strand—he’s a butcher on the field, and that’s difficult for a major league team to hide—Steve Hajjar has command and shoulder issues, and Sawyer Gipson-Long feels replaceable. This system still isn’t great, but I think it’s in a better spot than it was last month—and that’s while considering the players they lost at the deadline.
     
  23. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from DocBauer for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (July) + Writeups   
    Studs:
    Royce Lewis Nothing has changed here; Royce Lewis is a phenomenally talented shortstop on the mend with his second ACL tear. All we can do is hope he’ll return quickly enough next season to impact the team meaningfully.             
    Brooks Lee It’s a miracle that Brooks Lee fell to the Twins at 8. We should thank the Cubs and Mets every day—the former for reaching on a pop-up college arm; the latter for turning their noses at Kumar Rocker in 2021, allowing the Rangers to snag him, re-creating the Vanderbilt 1-2 punch. Lee is a great prospect, checking all the offensive boxes with a pedigree as a coach’s son. Sure, he may not stick at shortstop, but people have said that about every infielder ever drafted; only time will prove whether he will have to switch positions. Until then, we can cherish having a guy who slashed .357/.462/.664 in 2022.                                                                           
    -------------------------       
    Guys I love:
    Noah Miller I don’t like placing Noah Miller this high; either Austin Martin or Jordan Balazovic should be here, but they have underperformed so drastically that I can’t, in good conscience, continue to act like nothing is wrong with them. Miller’s defense remains elite, but his bat has lost its early-season thunder; he slugged .270 in July. I don’t know when I saw a slugging percent that low. Nick Punto slugged .323 over his career. Miller cut down on the Ks, but he’ll need to re-find his power before this placement reflects his ability instead of needing someone to be here.
    Emmanuel Rodriguez     Emmanuel Rodriguez hasn’t played since his brutal injury, but not playing means he couldn’t tank his value by performing poorly. It’s funny how prospect evaluation can work like that; he’s like Schrödinger's baseball player. His strikeouts were still high, but we’re talking about a 19-year-old who walked 28.6% of the time while slugging .551 during his first stint at A-ball; beggars can’t be choosers.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          
    Connor Prielipp The pessimist would point out that a freshly-drafted pitcher being the best pitching prospect in the Twins system is a bad sign, but I choose to look at it in another way: Connor Prielipp had a legitimate claim to go first overall before undergoing Tommy John surgery. The procedure is still a severe setback, but modern health advancements have prettied up its boogeyman face, and all reports point towards his stuff returning to previous levels. I’m incredibly excited to see what Prielipp can do in the Twins organization. 
    -------------------------
    Guys I like with reservations:
    Austin Martin Checking Austin Martin’s slash line is like learning that a childhood hero is a scumbag; it’s depressing, and a harsh reminder that the world sucks. Martin’s strikeout rate has plummeted to an impressive rate (13.8%), but he has 11 extra-base hits on the year. 11. It’s August. Martin hasn’t played since the month’s opening game—perhaps the Twins have him locked away deep in the chasms of Fort Myers until he builds more than Jamey Carrollian power—but maybe the reset helps him find his old groove. Until that happens, I have to drop him down the list.
    Simeon Woods Richardson Simeon Woods Richardson quietly slid to the IL in June—the Wind Surge never announced the move, which I thought was odd—but has finally returned. I remain a skeptic; his high walk rate, low BABIP, and low home run rate all scream vicious regression, but Woods Richardson has avoided that trap, and given that every other top pitching arm has capitulated, he’ll remain here by default. I wouldn’t be surprised if the team calls him up out of desperation for somebody, anybody who can save this pitching staff.
    Jordan Balazovic Jordan Balazovic’s AAA numbers don’t even make sense, and not in a good way; he’s walking a batter every two innings, and his HR/FB rate is a cartoonish 38.9%. Let me put it in another way: over 34 ⅔ innings, Balazovic has allowed 14 home runs. It’s clear that he isn’t healthy, and I have little clue as to why the team continues to let him die on the mound when he can’t net outs in his current state. I’ll keep Balazovic at this spot because he has dominated hitters in a way I have not seen in a post-José Berríos landscape.
    Marco Raya The Twins still refuse to let Marco Raya pitch longer than four innings in a game—yes, I know that’s how teams deal with young pitchers these days, but it still feels ridiculous, especially since no research exists that proves this strategy works—but he has crushed his competition. Raya struck out 24.3% of batters he faced in July, and he has been almost untouchable since mid-June. I don’t anticipate a promotion soon, but Raya is well-positioned for a big 2023 if he can stay healthy.
    Edouard Julien Edouard Julien keeps chugging, taking walks, and putting up impressive slash lines. Julien hit .287/.443/.517 in July, a healthy line that will play in any environment. He also walked as much as he struck out. The worry with Julien is still this: where is his position, and will he have enough power to sustain production there? If he’s a second baseman, that answer becomes more straightforward, but we will have to wait and see. He should be in St. Paul soon.
    Matt Wallner I previously said that a player needs to have legendary power to offset a strikeout rate like Matt Wallner’s, and he may have that jolt. Wallner’s homer in the Future Games was comical, and it’s easy to imagine his exit velocities translating well in the major leagues. AAA has not been kind to Wallner, but he struggled during his first taste of AA also, so that could just be how the big guy operates. Is he Joey Gallo 2.0? Is that something the Twins want? We shall see.
    David Festa David Festa is holding his own at A+ ball; the righty is 3rd in the system in innings and owns an ERA/FIP/xFIP slash line of 2.24/2.83/3.39. He struggled with command in July, walking 11.8% of batters, but I believe that to be a blip, not a worrisome trend. He also picked off three straight baserunners during a game in July, which I’ve never seen before in a baseball match.
    -------------------------
    Guys I’m intrigued by:
    Louie Varland I’ve been one of the low-men on Louie Varland for a while. His peripherals weren’t great last season, and he’s continued that trend at AA ball in 2022. Varland’s July was good (3.91 ERA, 18.6 K-BB%), but those numbers are inflated by an eight-strikeout performance at the end of the month; the rest of his starts were inconsistent and a little sloppy. 
    Blayne Enlow I’m still cutting Blayne Enlow an enormous amount of slack. The righty is trying to pitch his first mostly-full season since 2019, and getting him accustomed to pitching again is the goal for 2022. July was remarkable for his ERA—he allowed two runs over 13 innings—but the walk rate was elevated, and, well, it was just a 13-inning sample. Hopefully, we can see more dominant performances, like his three-inning, five strikeout relief outing to conclude the month.
    Brent Headrick Brent Headrick crushed A+ ball and earned a promotion to AAin July. He made one disastrous outing—seriously, don’t look it up—but I can chalk that up to jitters around making his first AA appearance. Headrick has the potential to fly up this list even further as the season continues, and he’s now undoubtedly the best left-handed pitching prospect in the system after Cade Povich and Steve Hajjar found new homes.
    Cole Sands Given the Twins’ inability to pitch at even a watchable level, I’m surprised that Cole Sands hasn’t earned an extended leash in the majors. He sometimes struggles with command, but his sweeper is deadly enough to coax an extra strikeout or two when he really needs it. Sands struck out 30.4% of batters at AAA in July; I think the team could use that.
    Ronny Henriquez In July, Ronny Henriquez secretly turned a corner; the newly acquired ex-Ranger farmhand put up an ERA of 3.05 with a healthy K-BB% of 20.9. Henriquez had struggled—and I mean struggled—at AAA to begin the season, but this great month could prove to be the launching point for the 22-year-old. Add him to the list of arms the team could look to in their pursuit of pitching.                                                                         
    Matt Canterino  Matt Canterino is a reliever who can’t stay healthy. I don’t care about stuff or anything else; a pitcher with a James Paxton-level of durability should not rank highly on any prospect list. If Canterino returns to AA and throws strikes, the team should move him to the major league bullpen before August ends.
    -------------------------
    Possible diamonds in the rough:
     Yasser Mercedes It’s typically unwise to rank DSL players, but Yasser Mercedes commanded a signing bonus of $1.7 million; we aren’t dealing with a random Joe here. As a 17-year-old, Mercedes is hitting well during his first stint in professional baseball; he’s currently good for a .324/.394/.532 slash line. 
    Chris Williams Missing Chris Williams was the most glaring mistake in my previous ranking. I’ve had my eye on Williams since he put together some powerful stretches in 2019, but his play has been dreadfully inconsistent. The 25-year-old slumped during an injury-plagued 2021 season, but he’s evolved into the Terminator recently, slugging a truly absurd .708 in July. He may be somewhat positionless, but you’ll move heaven and earth to find a place for that bat.
    Noah Cardenas Noah Cardenas is walking 18.2% of the time at A ball, and I feel like no one has mentioned it. Cardenas can already field the position well, so the newfound offensive boost could give his game a new, exciting wrinkle. I would suggest keeping your eye on him. 
    Cesar Lares Cesar Lares is striking out 44.2% of hitters faced at the DSL. This concludes fun facts with Cesar Lares.
    Misael Urbina Misael Urbina had a late start to the season—visa issues limited his movement—but it seems like that problem is far behind Urbina. The talented outfielder slugged .589 at A ball in July, a good sign considering that power was his most prominent issue in 2021. Urbina could quickly move up a tier or two if he continues to smoke the ball well.
    Alerick Soularie Alerick Soularie shed the strike-out problems that clouded his prospect status; he punched out in just 19.8% of plate appearances in July while hitting for a solid 123 wRC+. His power output is still low, but that feels like a nitpick in an otherwise excellent hitting package.
    Yunior Severino Post-post-hype can still exist for a ballplayer; a statement never more true than with Yunior Severino. After the Twins snagged the infielder when the Braves got caught with their hand in the cookie jar, it seemed that Severino had greatness in his future. That timeline branched off into a far more boring story, but Severino did slug .690 in July, so he may still have a chance.
    -------------------------
    Guys:
    Aaron Sabato The first spot in my “guys” list goes to one of the more frustrating prospects in the Twins’ system. Aaron Sabato has not yet put together an extended period of excellent performance–at least not in my eyes—but he did slug .709 in July while bringing home a Midwest League Hitter of the Week award. Is this a hot streak or a sign of things to come? I’m pessimistic, but we will see.
    Keoni Cavaco Keoni Cavaco remaining on this list is the baseball equivalent of the lifetime achievement award; he hasn’t impressed since the team took him in the 1st round in 2019, and he’s only here because of that pedigree. He did crawl above a league-average hitting line in July (110 wRC+), but his strikeout problem is still critical.
    Michael Helman Is Michael Helman just a feel-good story? Maybe. He’s 26 and is just holding his own at AAA, not dominating. No one attribute sticks out about Helman, but there’s a slight chance he’s called up in a pinch and proves enough to stick around.
    Kala’i Rosario Kala’i Rosario’s hitting peripherals—walks and strikeouts especially—look gross and not in a good way: a 5.8% walk rate compared to a 35.8% K rate. Still, the young, athletic outfielder has serious power potential, which could lead him to future success.
    Brayan Medina I still don’t know what to make of Brayan Medina, and he’s walking a small village in the low minors. He has almost no professional innings to his name, though, so I’m willing to wait before critically analyzing him.
    This group of names looked a lot better a few days ago when I started this writeup; of course, the team was always going to lose crucial players if they wanted to buy enough to offset their major league weaknesses. Still, I don’t feel like they lost major foundational pieces; Spencer Steer hurts, but he had no immediate fit on the Twins’ roster; Cade Povich is the primary, painful loss in my eyes. I think Povich will continue to evolve and become a valuable starting pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles. I’m lower than a lot on Christian Encarnacion-Strand—he’s a butcher on the field, and that’s difficult for a major league team to hide—Steve Hajjar has command and shoulder issues, and Sawyer Gipson-Long feels replaceable. This system still isn’t great, but I think it’s in a better spot than it was last month—and that’s while considering the players they lost at the deadline.
     
  24. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from TwerkTwonkTwins for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (July) + Writeups   
    Studs:
    Royce Lewis Nothing has changed here; Royce Lewis is a phenomenally talented shortstop on the mend with his second ACL tear. All we can do is hope he’ll return quickly enough next season to impact the team meaningfully.             
    Brooks Lee It’s a miracle that Brooks Lee fell to the Twins at 8. We should thank the Cubs and Mets every day—the former for reaching on a pop-up college arm; the latter for turning their noses at Kumar Rocker in 2021, allowing the Rangers to snag him, re-creating the Vanderbilt 1-2 punch. Lee is a great prospect, checking all the offensive boxes with a pedigree as a coach’s son. Sure, he may not stick at shortstop, but people have said that about every infielder ever drafted; only time will prove whether he will have to switch positions. Until then, we can cherish having a guy who slashed .357/.462/.664 in 2022.                                                                           
    -------------------------       
    Guys I love:
    Noah Miller I don’t like placing Noah Miller this high; either Austin Martin or Jordan Balazovic should be here, but they have underperformed so drastically that I can’t, in good conscience, continue to act like nothing is wrong with them. Miller’s defense remains elite, but his bat has lost its early-season thunder; he slugged .270 in July. I don’t know when I saw a slugging percent that low. Nick Punto slugged .323 over his career. Miller cut down on the Ks, but he’ll need to re-find his power before this placement reflects his ability instead of needing someone to be here.
    Emmanuel Rodriguez     Emmanuel Rodriguez hasn’t played since his brutal injury, but not playing means he couldn’t tank his value by performing poorly. It’s funny how prospect evaluation can work like that; he’s like Schrödinger's baseball player. His strikeouts were still high, but we’re talking about a 19-year-old who walked 28.6% of the time while slugging .551 during his first stint at A-ball; beggars can’t be choosers.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          
    Connor Prielipp The pessimist would point out that a freshly-drafted pitcher being the best pitching prospect in the Twins system is a bad sign, but I choose to look at it in another way: Connor Prielipp had a legitimate claim to go first overall before undergoing Tommy John surgery. The procedure is still a severe setback, but modern health advancements have prettied up its boogeyman face, and all reports point towards his stuff returning to previous levels. I’m incredibly excited to see what Prielipp can do in the Twins organization. 
    -------------------------
    Guys I like with reservations:
    Austin Martin Checking Austin Martin’s slash line is like learning that a childhood hero is a scumbag; it’s depressing, and a harsh reminder that the world sucks. Martin’s strikeout rate has plummeted to an impressive rate (13.8%), but he has 11 extra-base hits on the year. 11. It’s August. Martin hasn’t played since the month’s opening game—perhaps the Twins have him locked away deep in the chasms of Fort Myers until he builds more than Jamey Carrollian power—but maybe the reset helps him find his old groove. Until that happens, I have to drop him down the list.
    Simeon Woods Richardson Simeon Woods Richardson quietly slid to the IL in June—the Wind Surge never announced the move, which I thought was odd—but has finally returned. I remain a skeptic; his high walk rate, low BABIP, and low home run rate all scream vicious regression, but Woods Richardson has avoided that trap, and given that every other top pitching arm has capitulated, he’ll remain here by default. I wouldn’t be surprised if the team calls him up out of desperation for somebody, anybody who can save this pitching staff.
    Jordan Balazovic Jordan Balazovic’s AAA numbers don’t even make sense, and not in a good way; he’s walking a batter every two innings, and his HR/FB rate is a cartoonish 38.9%. Let me put it in another way: over 34 ⅔ innings, Balazovic has allowed 14 home runs. It’s clear that he isn’t healthy, and I have little clue as to why the team continues to let him die on the mound when he can’t net outs in his current state. I’ll keep Balazovic at this spot because he has dominated hitters in a way I have not seen in a post-José Berríos landscape.
    Marco Raya The Twins still refuse to let Marco Raya pitch longer than four innings in a game—yes, I know that’s how teams deal with young pitchers these days, but it still feels ridiculous, especially since no research exists that proves this strategy works—but he has crushed his competition. Raya struck out 24.3% of batters he faced in July, and he has been almost untouchable since mid-June. I don’t anticipate a promotion soon, but Raya is well-positioned for a big 2023 if he can stay healthy.
    Edouard Julien Edouard Julien keeps chugging, taking walks, and putting up impressive slash lines. Julien hit .287/.443/.517 in July, a healthy line that will play in any environment. He also walked as much as he struck out. The worry with Julien is still this: where is his position, and will he have enough power to sustain production there? If he’s a second baseman, that answer becomes more straightforward, but we will have to wait and see. He should be in St. Paul soon.
    Matt Wallner I previously said that a player needs to have legendary power to offset a strikeout rate like Matt Wallner’s, and he may have that jolt. Wallner’s homer in the Future Games was comical, and it’s easy to imagine his exit velocities translating well in the major leagues. AAA has not been kind to Wallner, but he struggled during his first taste of AA also, so that could just be how the big guy operates. Is he Joey Gallo 2.0? Is that something the Twins want? We shall see.
    David Festa David Festa is holding his own at A+ ball; the righty is 3rd in the system in innings and owns an ERA/FIP/xFIP slash line of 2.24/2.83/3.39. He struggled with command in July, walking 11.8% of batters, but I believe that to be a blip, not a worrisome trend. He also picked off three straight baserunners during a game in July, which I’ve never seen before in a baseball match.
    -------------------------
    Guys I’m intrigued by:
    Louie Varland I’ve been one of the low-men on Louie Varland for a while. His peripherals weren’t great last season, and he’s continued that trend at AA ball in 2022. Varland’s July was good (3.91 ERA, 18.6 K-BB%), but those numbers are inflated by an eight-strikeout performance at the end of the month; the rest of his starts were inconsistent and a little sloppy. 
    Blayne Enlow I’m still cutting Blayne Enlow an enormous amount of slack. The righty is trying to pitch his first mostly-full season since 2019, and getting him accustomed to pitching again is the goal for 2022. July was remarkable for his ERA—he allowed two runs over 13 innings—but the walk rate was elevated, and, well, it was just a 13-inning sample. Hopefully, we can see more dominant performances, like his three-inning, five strikeout relief outing to conclude the month.
    Brent Headrick Brent Headrick crushed A+ ball and earned a promotion to AAin July. He made one disastrous outing—seriously, don’t look it up—but I can chalk that up to jitters around making his first AA appearance. Headrick has the potential to fly up this list even further as the season continues, and he’s now undoubtedly the best left-handed pitching prospect in the system after Cade Povich and Steve Hajjar found new homes.
    Cole Sands Given the Twins’ inability to pitch at even a watchable level, I’m surprised that Cole Sands hasn’t earned an extended leash in the majors. He sometimes struggles with command, but his sweeper is deadly enough to coax an extra strikeout or two when he really needs it. Sands struck out 30.4% of batters at AAA in July; I think the team could use that.
    Ronny Henriquez In July, Ronny Henriquez secretly turned a corner; the newly acquired ex-Ranger farmhand put up an ERA of 3.05 with a healthy K-BB% of 20.9. Henriquez had struggled—and I mean struggled—at AAA to begin the season, but this great month could prove to be the launching point for the 22-year-old. Add him to the list of arms the team could look to in their pursuit of pitching.                                                                         
    Matt Canterino  Matt Canterino is a reliever who can’t stay healthy. I don’t care about stuff or anything else; a pitcher with a James Paxton-level of durability should not rank highly on any prospect list. If Canterino returns to AA and throws strikes, the team should move him to the major league bullpen before August ends.
    -------------------------
    Possible diamonds in the rough:
     Yasser Mercedes It’s typically unwise to rank DSL players, but Yasser Mercedes commanded a signing bonus of $1.7 million; we aren’t dealing with a random Joe here. As a 17-year-old, Mercedes is hitting well during his first stint in professional baseball; he’s currently good for a .324/.394/.532 slash line. 
    Chris Williams Missing Chris Williams was the most glaring mistake in my previous ranking. I’ve had my eye on Williams since he put together some powerful stretches in 2019, but his play has been dreadfully inconsistent. The 25-year-old slumped during an injury-plagued 2021 season, but he’s evolved into the Terminator recently, slugging a truly absurd .708 in July. He may be somewhat positionless, but you’ll move heaven and earth to find a place for that bat.
    Noah Cardenas Noah Cardenas is walking 18.2% of the time at A ball, and I feel like no one has mentioned it. Cardenas can already field the position well, so the newfound offensive boost could give his game a new, exciting wrinkle. I would suggest keeping your eye on him. 
    Cesar Lares Cesar Lares is striking out 44.2% of hitters faced at the DSL. This concludes fun facts with Cesar Lares.
    Misael Urbina Misael Urbina had a late start to the season—visa issues limited his movement—but it seems like that problem is far behind Urbina. The talented outfielder slugged .589 at A ball in July, a good sign considering that power was his most prominent issue in 2021. Urbina could quickly move up a tier or two if he continues to smoke the ball well.
    Alerick Soularie Alerick Soularie shed the strike-out problems that clouded his prospect status; he punched out in just 19.8% of plate appearances in July while hitting for a solid 123 wRC+. His power output is still low, but that feels like a nitpick in an otherwise excellent hitting package.
    Yunior Severino Post-post-hype can still exist for a ballplayer; a statement never more true than with Yunior Severino. After the Twins snagged the infielder when the Braves got caught with their hand in the cookie jar, it seemed that Severino had greatness in his future. That timeline branched off into a far more boring story, but Severino did slug .690 in July, so he may still have a chance.
    -------------------------
    Guys:
    Aaron Sabato The first spot in my “guys” list goes to one of the more frustrating prospects in the Twins’ system. Aaron Sabato has not yet put together an extended period of excellent performance–at least not in my eyes—but he did slug .709 in July while bringing home a Midwest League Hitter of the Week award. Is this a hot streak or a sign of things to come? I’m pessimistic, but we will see.
    Keoni Cavaco Keoni Cavaco remaining on this list is the baseball equivalent of the lifetime achievement award; he hasn’t impressed since the team took him in the 1st round in 2019, and he’s only here because of that pedigree. He did crawl above a league-average hitting line in July (110 wRC+), but his strikeout problem is still critical.
    Michael Helman Is Michael Helman just a feel-good story? Maybe. He’s 26 and is just holding his own at AAA, not dominating. No one attribute sticks out about Helman, but there’s a slight chance he’s called up in a pinch and proves enough to stick around.
    Kala’i Rosario Kala’i Rosario’s hitting peripherals—walks and strikeouts especially—look gross and not in a good way: a 5.8% walk rate compared to a 35.8% K rate. Still, the young, athletic outfielder has serious power potential, which could lead him to future success.
    Brayan Medina I still don’t know what to make of Brayan Medina, and he’s walking a small village in the low minors. He has almost no professional innings to his name, though, so I’m willing to wait before critically analyzing him.
    This group of names looked a lot better a few days ago when I started this writeup; of course, the team was always going to lose crucial players if they wanted to buy enough to offset their major league weaknesses. Still, I don’t feel like they lost major foundational pieces; Spencer Steer hurts, but he had no immediate fit on the Twins’ roster; Cade Povich is the primary, painful loss in my eyes. I think Povich will continue to evolve and become a valuable starting pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles. I’m lower than a lot on Christian Encarnacion-Strand—he’s a butcher on the field, and that’s difficult for a major league team to hide—Steve Hajjar has command and shoulder issues, and Sawyer Gipson-Long feels replaceable. This system still isn’t great, but I think it’s in a better spot than it was last month—and that’s while considering the players they lost at the deadline.
     
  25. Like
    Matt Braun got a reaction from Oldgoat_MN for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (June) + Explanations   
    Royce Lewis Royce Lewis is still the best prospect in the Twins’ system, but the soul refuses to accept that truth. Lewis will now miss extended time with another ACL surgery, and it’s impossible to feel anything but grief and sympathy for the man; he’s an elite talent that life continues to deal poor hands to maniacally. His major league performance proved that he’s capable of great things, and all we can do is hope that he’ll come back without missing a beat as he did before.                                                                                     
    -------------------------       
    Austin Martin  .311. That number represents a crappy rock band from the 90s and Austin Martin’s season slugging percentage as of June 29th. It will be impossible for Martin to fulfill his destiny as a high-level number 2 hitter unless he—at the very least—finds his .380s slugging mark from last season. I’m not sure why he’s suddenly trying to put the ball in play with no regard for extra-base damage, but it is failing; he has 11 extra-base hits in 60 games. We knew Martin would never become Sammy Sosa at the plate, but he desperately needs a buoyant power level from which his excellent OBP skills can consistently launch upwards. Martin is also not a shortstop.
    Noah Miller      Now we get to the messy part of the system. I like Noah Miller, but he has cooled off tremendously since his blistering May; this is the danger in trying to rank recently-drafted high school players. I’ll stick with my guns and say that he’s a future star—his defense and on-base abilities are still undeniably elite—but that statement carries less oomph than it did just a month ago. I believe he’ll grow into some power, but he probably will never be Fernando Tatís Jr. out there; instead, I see him as a jack-of-all-trades type of quality shortstop.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          
    Emmanuel Rodriguez    Have you ever heard about the tragedy of Emmanuel Rodriguez the wise? Rodriguez was laying waste to low-A pitchers before he tore up his knee, costing him at least the rest of this season. Knee injuries for athletic marvels like Rodriguez are still scary, but Lewis’ success in returning from one proved that it might not be worrisome. It’s a shame, Rodriguez’s play was cartoonishly dominant, but we’ll have to wait a while before seeing him on the field again. The long-term outlook remains sturdy, but the short-term playing time loss hurts.
    Jordan Balazovic Aaron Gleeman recently noted that Jordan Balazovic is dealing with a knee issue that has curtailed his effectiveness this season. Maybe it’s weird to say this, but knowing that fact improves my opinion on Balazovic; his under-performance has to do with injury, not a sudden loss in ability. Still, he’s walking far too many hitters at AAA and gives up contact loud enough to break the sound barrier. I’ve knocked him down a few spots already, and the slide will continue unless he changes something quick.
    Spencer Steer Is Spencer Steer the only top name here with an unimpeachable performance in 2022? The Oregon product is slaying the ball, slashing .277/.360/.577 between AA and AAA with only a slight drop-off in production since his promotion; a low BABIP may be the culprit. He’s no defensive whizz, but he doesn’t need to be with that bat, and he should be firmly implanted in the Twins’ future infield plans. I debated placing him above Balazovic, but since Steer has less overall time as an elite player, I gave the nod to the pitcher for now.
    -------------------------
    Simeon Woods Richardson Simeon Woods Richardson was pitching well, and then he got injured because of course he did. I was still deeply suspicious of his performance—4.87 xFIP and all—but he at least had a nice ERA, and that’s better than nothing. I don’t think he has unquestionably shed the narrative that he can’t pitch at AA; Woods Richardson is striking out fewer batters than he did at every other level in the minors before this season. Yet, he’s still just 21 years old, so it would be foolish to write him off yet. It’s strange that that team placed him on the IL with no explanation or announcement. 
    Edouard Julien I’m uncomfortable placing Edouard Julien this high on the list, but I also don’t know who would reasonably overtake him. Julien is positionless, but who cares about that when you walk 20% of the time. He has had a suspicious drop-off in power (.138 ISO this season), which could be an ominous sign of future disappointment; until that shoe drops, he’ll remain a top-10 prospect on my list.
    Cade Povich Cade Povich is probably my new favorite Twins pitching prospect. The lefty has been dominant, striking out hitters at a 32.7% clip with an average walk rate and few homers; that’s a great combination, by the way. Povich has little left to prove at A+ and will be pitching in Wichita sooner than later. Just pray that his arm doesn’t fall off.
    Marco Raya I think the hype train on Marco Raya has accelerated a touch too quickly, but I can understand why. Raya combines the top-dog mentality needed in an ace with top-tier stuff; that’s an excellent combination for a pitching prospect. The drawback remains: Raya has 36 innings over 10 appearances and just recently left a start after netting two outs. Are the Twins using kid gloves to handle him? Probably, but I need a nice, unquestionably dominant run from Raya before I move him up any further; TINSTAAP and all that jazz. 
    Cole Sands Yeah, I’m still too high on Cole Sands. His command needs tweaks that may be beyond his abilities—how many players suddenly drastically improve in their fourth year with a team—but that sweeper is what keeps Sands up here. His breaking ball is ridiculous, mimicking the great American migration of the early 1900s in how it moves from East to West with great efficiency. The rest of his profile is meh, but he’ll always have potential thanks to his vicious breaking ball.
    David Festa David Festa is the most pop-up-y pitching prospect in the system; as a 13th-round pick, he’s punching out hitters at a 30.4% mark over 54 ⅔ innings split between A and A+ ball. His status as an “un-prospect” may benefit him, as the team is less likely to baby him, instead throwing him to the wolves where he can prove his ability. Festa may reach AA this season—he’s pitched that well—and we should know more about him once he does.
    Christian Encarnacion-Strand It’s been a while since CES went berserk in April to the tune of a billion RBIs (at least that’s what it felt like). No, he’s not that good, but he is a solid hitter. Encarnacion-Strand’s beautiful slash line is .291/.357/.567, which will play in any league, which is good because he cannot field even a little bit. Errors are far from the end-all stat they used to be, but he has 21 of them in just over 400 innings at 3rd base this season; that’s bad. Being a future 1st base/DH type player curtails his upside, so his entire prospect pedigree rests on the power of his bat.
    -------------------------   
    Matt Wallner I think I was too harsh on Matt Wallner last month. I emphatically stated that a player with his strikeout numbers would need to be otherworldly in other aspects to offset the K. His response? Walk a lot. I still hold those reservations, but if his new monstrous walk rate (21.4% in June) is even slightly sticky, he has a solid shot at becoming a major league contributor. Also, he owns an absolute cannon in right field.
    Blayne Enlow Blayne Enlow is dipping his toes into the minor league waters after a missed year, so I find it difficult to evaluate him too harshly. The numbers aren’t great, but that barely matters; him just being on the mound is good enough for the moment. At some point, slack will no longer exist, but I’m okay with punting on criticizing him for now. 
    Louie Varland In a season that has been chaotic for so many players, Louie Varland chugs along like nothing is wrong. The Minnesota native’s under-the-hood stats aren’t the best—he’s walking more batters than he did in his stellar 2021 campaign—but the rest of his profile appears solid. His 68 ⅓ innings leads the entire Twins minor league system.
    Brent Headrick Brent Headrick might be the biggest under-the-radar name in the Twins system. As a late-blooming 24-year-old in A+ ball, Headrick has utterly dominated with a 2.40 ERA and a strikeout rate above 30%. It’s hard to scout prospects in this vein; I give Headrick the benefit of the doubt until/if his numbers reverse.
    Ronny Henriquez What do we make of Ronny Henriquez? Sure, he’s still just 22 years old, but there’s little to latch onto regarding his AAA play so far. It seems that the Twins are okay with letting him die at that level, given that his ERA is 6.95 and his FIP isn’t far behind (6.07). At some point, I need performance to outweigh pedigree; that needs to change soon for Henriquez.                                                                          
    Matt Canterino      I’ll try to be as diplomatic as possible: Matt Canterino has not yet shown the ability to be a consistent, innings-eating top-level arm. He recently set his single-season record for innings pitched as a professional (34 ⅓) before another elbow injury sidelined him for a significant time. I don’t see real reasons for optimism; the Rice background combined with these injuries leaves little faith in him ever becoming the big front-of-the-rotation starter we expected of him. 
    Steve Hajjar Steve Hajjar was following in the Cade Povich breakout mold until a shoulder injury in the middle of June stopped him in his tracks. Shoulder problems are not the death sentence they once were, but that ailment is still something to keep an eye on for the future.
    Sawyer Gipson-Long Sawyer Gipon-Long is shockingly similar to Brent Headrick; he is also an old-for-his-level breakout prospect looking to prove that he isn’t a fluke. The process is farther along for Gipson-Long as he recently enjoyed a promotion to AA Wichita; he has one clunker and two solid starts. The rest of the season will be essential to understand Gipson-Long more as a prospect.
    -------------------------
    Kala’i Rosario Kala’i Rosario dropped three points off his strikeout rate since I last wrote about him, but that still leaves him at 36.0%. My view on players with a penchant for whiffing is well known; you must do something extraordinary to offset the Ks. Rosario has good power (.204 ISO) and is still just a teenager, so he still possesses the rare chance to evolve into an elite power threat.
    Michael Helman Not mentioning Michael Helman was probably my last ranking’s worst mistake. The 26-year-old has quietly hit well at every level in the minors and is now knocking on the Major’s door thanks to his 125 wRC+ at AAA. Is this just Brian Dinkelman 2.0? Maybe, and that’s not just because of how similar their last names are. Helman could debut soon if the Twins desperately smash the “break in case of emergency” glass if a few too many infielders suffer injuries.
    Brayan Medina Brayan Medina finally pitched in the Twins system for the first time this month. He’s thrown fewer than 10 innings, so who knows where he’s at in his development, but the stuff descriptions are good, so he’ll stay here until further notice.
    Aaron Sabato Aaron Sabato’s slash line is still not optimal for a great 1st base prospect. The walks are good (14.2%), but he doesn’t neutralize his strikeout tendencies with overwhelming power (.171 ISO). I remain skeptical that Sabato will develop into the type of player the Twins expected when they drafted him.
    Alerick Soularie I didn’t rank Alerick Soularie in my last write-up, but the guy put up a 144 wRC+ in June, and now here he is. His play rounded more into form; he struck out a little less, walked a little more, and ballooned his ISO from .114 to .167. If he’s genuinely backing his elite athletic ability with a more sound game, Soularie could rocket up this list.
    Misael Urbina Misael Urbina just recently popped back up in the Twins system after dealing with visa issues earlier in the year. He’s played a few games in the DSL; he’ll likely rejoin Fort Myers when he’s back in the groove. 
    Keoni Cavaco Keoni Cavaco rebounded a little bit in June (101 wRC+), but his walk and strikeout rates remain heavily lopsided, and his power does not make up for it (.151 ISO). Maybe the play improvement will aid his confidence; he needs to improve his performance before people buy back into his prospect stock.
    Jake Rucker Jake Rucker recently earned a promotion to A+ ball after holding his own with Fort Myers (100 wRC+). He’s 22 years old, so the Twins might accelerate his movement through the system; keep an eye on him in the Michael Helman under-the-radar vein. 
    Travis Adams All Travis Adams has done this season is pitch well for Fort Myers. The former 6th-round pick is crushing with a 3.10 ERA and peripherals to match. There’s still an unknown factor to his game that will only clear once he plays in A+ ball and beyond, which should be soon.
     
×
×
  • Create New...