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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    I tend to agree with pretty much all of this (though I'm more of an SWR fan based on results). My guess is the last spot is Bradley or Abel. Bradley has a bit of an edge since he only has one option remaining.
  2. arby58
    Yeah, all he does is give them a chance to win in most of his starts. Festa has injury issues, and Matthews seems to get hit hard more often than you would expect. SWR isn't flashy, but he gets the job done.
  3. arby58
    I think all the knee injuries caused that ship to sail. He probably no longer has the lateral movement and 'twitch' necessary for the position.
  4. arby58
    I was shocked to read an article in Baseball Prospectus about remaining free agent pitchers, and when they came to bullpen, up popped this table: I literally had to do a doubletake - where are the Twins in this?? I guess misery loves company.
  5. arby58
    That's a good point - they certainly aren't going to carry four left handed relief pitchers.
  6. arby58
    My guess is the Twins would slot him second at the moment.
  7. arby58
    The claim that "Letting Liam Hendriks slip away from them before he morphed into a bulldog of a closer was one of the most regrettable failures of the Twins' front office in the final days of the Terry Ryan regime" is one of the most '20-20 hindsight is always perfect vision' statements in the history of baseball. Hendriks, in his three years with the Twins, had ERAs of 6.17, 5.59, and 6.85. His collective WAR for those three years was -2.0. Then, when the Twins sent him away, in the next year between KC and Toronto, he had an ERA of 5.23 and a WAR of -0.3. He then had four years of ok, not great performance. Finally, at age 30 - 6 years after he left the Twins, he had a breakthrough year, and he had four great years as a closer. So, the Twins let him 'slip away' so that six years later he would turn into a great closer, and that is 'one of the most regrettable failures of the Twins front office?' I call BS.
  8. arby58
    I know the Mets plan to play Polanco at 1B - where he has a total of 1 inning played in his entire MLB career. Considering he will be 33 in July and has had his share of injury issues, I wouldn't be trading Viento if I were the Mets. Baty is interesting, but the other side of the equation - what would it take in terms of Twins pitching to get hin - is left unanswered.
  9. arby58
    Also, Baseball Prospectus is out with their rankings, and they place the Twins 8th (again ranking above htem are the Brewers at 3, Tigers at 6 and Guardians at 7). Their comment: " Minnesota Twins Strengths: The Twins have a strong quartet of bats at the top and above-average depth Weaknesses: The pitching is a bit behind the hitting The Twins have generally been a boringly above-average system and this year is no exception. Their top prospects are on the cusp of the majors though, and they don’t have as much depth as usual behind them.
  10. arby58
    Tell it to Baseball Reference - it's their stat. I'm sure you're more qualified to judge. I notice you don't take issue with Wallner having a higher OPS, OPS+ and OBP. Sounds like cherrypicking on your part.
  11. arby58
    Last year he cut down his percentage of Ks - and had his worst offensive year. If your OPS+ is 27% better than the league average, you accept and move on. If every Twin has his OPS+ their offense will score a lot more runs in 2026.
  12. arby58
    Well, 'dude' you're wrong on OBP - for his career, Wallner is .344 and Larnach is .323.
  13. arby58
    There was a pretty damning piece on Keaschall in Baseball Prospectus a couple weeks ago. The gist was that he has unacceptale power for a player who is not an elite fielder at his position:" It brings me no joy to throw a wet blanket over the Keaschall hype, but his power is below the minimum acceptable standard for an MLB starter. His 100.8 mph EV90 is practically tied with two other second basemen—Andrés Giménez and Nico Hoerner. Player EV90 (mph) Z-Con% BB% DRC+ DRP PA WARP Andrés Giménez 100.8 84.1% 6.8% 81 2.4 369 0.8 Nico Hoerner 100.7 95.7% 6.0% 105 6.1 649 3.6 Luke Keaschall 100.8 89.9% 9.2% 108 -0.4 207 0.9 Keaschall has a good zone-contact rate, but it’s not elite. He supplements his value by drawing more walks, which might dry up if pitchers challenge him more in the strike zone, since he’s just a singles hitter. The biggest difference separating Giménez and Hoerner from Keaschall is that they have five Gold Gloves between them, and Keaschall is a below-average defender. Almost all of the players with his lack of pop are either great fielders, bench players, or both. He doesn’t make enough contact or play his position well enough to get to Hoerner’s level, and there aren’t many other paths for players without power.
  14. arby58
    In what universe is Larnach a better hitter than Wallner? Larnach career: .726 OPS, 101 OPS+, 1.2 average WAR/year. Wallner career: .829 OPS, 127 OPS+, 2.7 average WAR/year. It's not even close.
  15. arby58
    This didn't age well.
  16. arby58
    20 game winners these days are rare, and not that relevant for a variety of reasons. Last year, Joe Ryan ranked 11th in MLB in WAR, 9th in WHIP, 18th in ERA, 12th in wins (if that still matters to you), 15th in Ks and 12th in K/9 innings. Given that there are 30 MLB teams, those rankings sound a lot closer to Ace than 'traditional number two starters.'
  17. arby58
    Brock Stewart and Danny Coloumbe are cases where they picked up relief pitchers that 'figured it out.'
  18. arby58
    The article doesn't touch on the fact that Valdez is an elite ground ball pitcher. The Twins infield does not inspire confidence in support of that type of pitcher. If I were Valdez, the Twins would be close to the bottom of my list of places to go - probably after high altitude Colorado and the AAA infield in Sacramento.
  19. arby58
    Polanco was terrible his first year with Seattle, so he didn't 'instantly make the team worse' unless you were referring to the Mariners. Yes, he was much better the next year, but by then Twins fans would have rebelled against him. Besides, the trade was Topa and Gonzalez as well. If Gonzalez turns into a good MLB player, the trade will not look so bad.
  20. arby58
    I would put the Nelson Cruz signing in the 'best' category. Not only was he a very productive offensive player, but he provided the capital necessary to acquire Joe Ryan.
  21. arby58
    Law is the most pessimistic of the rankings I have seen. Others rank much higher (if not among the highest-ranked): ESPN, Kiley McDaniel (1/29/26) has the Twins 8th. One thing that is pretty common in these rankings is Milwaukee (1), Cleveland (2), and Detroit (6) rank better. Bleacher Report (9/26.25, after September callups) has the Twins 7th. The Tigers (5) and Brewers (6) are ahead, with Cleveland next in line after the Twins (8th). Frangraphs 2025 update had the Twins 12th, with Milwaukee 4th, Cleveland 5th, and Detroit 9th. Prospects 1500 had the Twins 9th, with Milwaukee 1, Detroit 3, and Cleveland 7. I'm sure there are others, but Law is the only one I pulled from with them in the bottom half of the rankings.
  22. arby58
    So he's never played 1B but you expect his 1B defense to be better than his below average OF defense. Got it.
  23. arby58
    Realistically, the Twins' greatest needs are C and 1B - not much coming up the pipeline in the foreseeable future. If I were going to deal Ryan, it would be for a package headed by the Orioles Samuel Basallo. He's currently the #8 ranked prospect by MLB.com, and he signed an 8-year, $67 million contract extension last year. That's a significant commitment, but if Ryan is traded away and Jeffers leaves, it more than covers it. According to the trade simulator, it is fairly close - Ryan has surplus value of 51.7, and Basallo 47.1. So Baltimore throws in another prospect or two. I think the Twins would seriously consider that trade.
  24. arby58
    First, they acquired him for a 26 year old 5'5" utility infielder who had a .701 OPS in AAA last year - not exactly a star in the making. Second, they acquired him before they signed Caratini, and it is likely they did not consider signing him a 'sure thing' so needed a backup catcher. Third, he's making the minimum, which is not 'millions of dollars.' Finally, if they lose him via waivers, the final outcome is casting off Eeles, who had no real future with the Twins anyway.
  25. arby58
    While the idea has merit, you are overvaluing Lawler, at least according to the Baseball Trade Values Trade Simulator. They give Lawler a surplus value of 3.6. Here are the surplus trade values for the Twins players you mentioned: Martin: 9.6 Roden: 9.4 Festa: 11.5 Soto: 10.8 Culpepper: 4.2 (you're at least in the ballpark with him alone) Larnach: 2.0 (yeah, that's the corner outfielder the Twins picked up a $4+ million option for). Sigh.
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