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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Buxton has been great - and Correa may be even better of late. He's pushed his season WAR up to 3.1 and batting average to .311.
  2. arby58
    There are 41 catchers with at least 100 AB. Via WAR, Vasquez is 38th. The only catchers below him are Ruiz (Nationals), Fortes (Marlins), and Maldanado (White Sox) - teams that are a combined 57 games under .500.
  3. arby58
    So what? They then pick up the rest of this year's salary. Lee has demonstrated he's ready.
  4. arby58
    A negative WAR means you're less valuable than a replacement player. That is not a good thing, offensively or defensively.
  5. arby58
    My whole point is related to health. Just ignoring that and saying he's a better offensive player: see Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rendon, etc., etc.
  6. arby58
    I'm not so sure the advanced metrics all align with the 'Vazquez is one of the best defensive catchers' mantra. He certainly cost the Twins defensively last night. Statcast has a metric on catcher throwing leaderboard, which uses a variety of factors on throws to second base on steal attempts (including runner speed, arm strength, etc. plus attempts and caught stealing). Vazquez ranks 25th in 2024 among all MLB catchers. Jeffers, BTW, ranks 23rd. His WAR, which takes into account defense, is -0.3. Also, saying he is a poor hitter is understating things quite a bit - he's a disaster at the plate. He has the lowest batting average on the team and BY FAR the worst OPS - Farmer's OPS is .555 to Vazquez' .465.
  7. arby58
    I'm of the 'veterans are veterans for a reason' sentiment(see Santana's slow start this year and Kepler's last year), but I also agree that Lee needs to come up and the only logical thing to do is send Farmer down. Pretty close to the same opinion on Vazquez.
  8. arby58
    I'd add Buxton to the honorable mentions for MVP - he is fourth in WAR behind Correa, Castro and Jeffers and is playing excellent defense and being a disruptor on the basepaths. I'd drop Lewis - much as his start has been noteworthy, he has only played about one-fourth of their games. It's hard to be that valuable when you've spent the vast majority of the season on the IL.
  9. arby58
    Austin Riley is not a 'great comparable.' He signed as a player with no major injury concerns (he's played between 159 and 160 games a year for the last three years). If you can't see the difference from that and Lewis . . .
  10. arby58
    Except three of Trout's four major injuries occurred while batting (broken hamate bone), running the bases (calf strain) and sliding into second (torn thumb ligament). He also said he didn't know what caused the torn meniscus - it also could have been running the bases.
  11. arby58
    Right now, FanGraphs has the Twins with a 76.4% chance of making the play-offs. Interestingly, they give them the 3rd best chance of AL teams to win the World Series (Yankees are 13.6%, Orioles are 8.8% and the Twins are 6.2%).
  12. arby58
    He was injured this year trying to go from first to third on a base hit. That's not exactly a 'physically demanding' play. I believe his hamstring injury last year was also while running the bases. The guy is injury-prone.
  13. arby58
    MLB is riddled with lengthy contracts that didn't turn out well, and it's most often because of injuries. Even as great a player as Mike Trout is becoming a financial problem because of the length and size of his contract and lost games due to injuries. I love Royce Lewis as a player, but he still hasn't played much - again, because of numerous injuries. The Twins have given lengthy contracts to Correa and Buxton to be 'the face of the franchise' - given the financial reality that they are a mid-market club, I think they let it ride with Lewis.
  14. arby58

    Delusions of Grandeur

    arby58 commented on Twins GFP's blog entry in Twins GFP

    I don't feel badly treated. They won a play-off series last year and were in the hunt against the Astros. Yankees fans must have felt 'treated badly' by their missing the play-offs. They are in a good position to make the play-offs this year as well, and they have a lot of exciting, homegrown young players. The Twins made significant investments in their minor league operation as well as analytics, etc. It's not an accident the Twins keep raising MPH on their pitchers - it is investments that make that possible. The Twins cut payroll this year primarily because of the TV revenue uncertainty - and you can find plenty of articles detailing how that impacted multiple teams, not just the Twins. Ultimately, MLB needs to figure that out, not just the Twins.
  15. arby58

    Delusions of Grandeur

    arby58 commented on Twins GFP's blog entry in Twins GFP

    Baseball economics is different for the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, etc. - large market teams with payroll that matches their much greater revenue stream. If you look at the yearly payroll data for all the teams in MLB, you'll see fairly consistent rankings. The Yankees 'respect how they treat their fans' because of the revenue they bring in, pure and simple. That said, they also missed the play-offs last year.
  16. arby58
    He's 2.2 WAR through 74 games, so 3.5 seems a little low. Speaking of Polanco, he's currently 0.0 WAR and an OPS of .595 for the Mariners. Even if all the trade was for the Twins was a salary dump, it looks like a smart move in sending him west. I suspect they look to re-sign Castro. The other possible utility players (Lee, Martin) don't have his range of possible positions or the speed he brings to the top of the line-up. When he's on, he's electric.
  17. arby58
    A lot of good points and food for thought! Having a 'super utility' player who can play pretty much every day in multiple positions is, to me, as or more valuable than just nailing him to 2B. I do think he needs to be at the top of the lineup most days and one of Julien or Lee and one of Larnach or Wallner needs to go as trade material for pitching. Which will probably depend on what they get in return.
  18. arby58
    Including Santana in that group is unfair. He's currently second on the team in HRs, tied for 1st in RBIs, 3rd in total bases, has a 1.0 WAR and his OPS has been climbing, now at .741. He also is an excellent defensive first baseman. I'd say you are about a month or two behind in your assessment of his performance.
  19. arby58
    Whatever happens, it won't be a trade for either Margot or Farmer - the 'sell low' concept isn't going to net you anything close to 'minor league flame-throwing...pitchers.' Whoever goes will be DFA'd.
  20. arby58
    They'd have to actually want him. Hard to believe with his current peripherals.
  21. arby58
    Both Julien and Wallner had excellent years last year - it wasn't just hype. Julien, in 339 ABs had a 2.6 WAR and .839 OPS; Wallner, in 213 ABs had a 2.2 WAR and an .877 OPS. Like lots of players, they didn't sustain it their sophomore year - at least to this point. It is worth remembering that Wallner only had 25 AB this year before being sent down. Suggesting it is time to make final decisions on those two is of the 'haste makes waste' variety of decisions.
  22. arby58
    Agree - and the trade doesn't really make sense for the Mets either. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games and are 1 game out of a wild card spot. Why would they trade a proven MLB bat for minor leaguers in the middle of a play-off race?
  23. arby58
    We'll agree to disagree. Just about every player will encounter an injury season every few years, and Correa's injury last year had nothing to do with the 'medicals' that you refer to. Meanwhile, Correa has been very good this year, not just during this hot streak. He was also the Twins best position player in last year's play-offs. The Giants . . . nope, no play-offs last year, under .500 this year.
  24. arby58
    The Giants are 36-37 and getting very little from the shortstop position. Baseball doesn't have a salary cap, the Giants are considered a 'big market' team, and they have a payroll of over $200 million in 2024 (10th in MLB). They'd look a whole lot more like a play-off team with Correa at shortstop.
  25. arby58
    The thing that often doesn't get factored into these 'see what he looks like in 5 years' is what will salaries look like in 5 years? If, as expected, they continue to inflate, even a lesser Correa may still be in line with salaries because of inflation. Things are not static.
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