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weitz41

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  1. Like
    weitz41 got a reaction from nddan67 for a blog entry, Holy Cow!   
    This flashed by on my home page and thought some may want to read. I was caught by surprise and good for him. i'm rooting for him.
    Angels All-Star Free Agent Signing Showed Up to Camp Nearly 60 Pounds Lighter (msn.com)
  2. Like
    weitz41 got a reaction from Oldgoat_MN for a blog entry, Holy Cow!   
    This flashed by on my home page and thought some may want to read. I was caught by surprise and good for him. i'm rooting for him.
    Angels All-Star Free Agent Signing Showed Up to Camp Nearly 60 Pounds Lighter (msn.com)
  3. Like
    weitz41 got a reaction from Twinsgypsy for a blog entry, Holy Cow!   
    This flashed by on my home page and thought some may want to read. I was caught by surprise and good for him. i'm rooting for him.
    Angels All-Star Free Agent Signing Showed Up to Camp Nearly 60 Pounds Lighter (msn.com)
  4. Like
    weitz41 got a reaction from RpR for a blog entry, Holy Cow!   
    This flashed by on my home page and thought some may want to read. I was caught by surprise and good for him. i'm rooting for him.
    Angels All-Star Free Agent Signing Showed Up to Camp Nearly 60 Pounds Lighter (msn.com)
  5. Like
    weitz41 got a reaction from Doctor Gast for a blog entry, Holy Cow!   
    This flashed by on my home page and thought some may want to read. I was caught by surprise and good for him. i'm rooting for him.
    Angels All-Star Free Agent Signing Showed Up to Camp Nearly 60 Pounds Lighter (msn.com)
  6. Disagree
    weitz41 got a reaction from RpR for a blog entry, Cheap Roster Answers?   
    I noticed this this mornings and thought maybe there's a couple of players that may fill a need on the Twins roster. 36/40 man roster filled.
    Intriguing free agents after the tender deadline (mlb.com)
    Nick Senzel in CF wouldn't be the worst fit. He's also a pretty good bat against lefties.
    Juan Yepez as a RH 1B/OF option? This one a question even mentioning. Was pretty good in 2022...Minor league signing?
  7. Like
    weitz41 got a reaction from Doctor Gast for a blog entry, Cheap Roster Answers?   
    I noticed this this mornings and thought maybe there's a couple of players that may fill a need on the Twins roster. 36/40 man roster filled.
    Intriguing free agents after the tender deadline (mlb.com)
    Nick Senzel in CF wouldn't be the worst fit. He's also a pretty good bat against lefties.
    Juan Yepez as a RH 1B/OF option? This one a question even mentioning. Was pretty good in 2022...Minor league signing?
  8. Like
    weitz41 reacted to LA Vikes Fan for a blog entry, Lewis Back Up to Replace Solano? Polanco to 1B?   
    Well, now what do we do with Solano spraining his knee? Hard to believe that's a day to day thing. By the way, "sprained knee" is often the diagnosis until the MRI shows a torn meniscus or ligament damage.  So what do we do? God help us if the answer is play Joey Gallo every day. 
    I say we we cut Lewis' rehab stint in AAA short and get him back up. Lewis plays 3d, Polanco goes to 1B most days, with Gallo there only occasionally. I can already hear the chorus of "move Julien to 1B, he stinks at 2B". I hear that, but moving a guy who's never played 1B over there when he just got to the MLB level is playing with fire. Polanco is a veteran, he's played all over the IF, and he's  seasoned enough to not let the transition effect his hitting. He's been around and a good bet to pick up the basics at 1B pretty quickly, He'll make mistakes but he'll make the routine plays most of the time and be in the right position most of the time. It's also a good audition for next year when his highest and best use may be as the super UTL guy who plays 5 days a week at a combination of 2-3 days at 2B and 1B against LH starting pitching while Julien DHs or he or Kirilloff sit, a day or two as the DH, and a day at 3B to spell Lewis. Hey, I think an IF of Correa, Lewis, Julien. Kirilloff, Polanco, and one of Castro, Famer, or Gordon, is exactly where we need to be at the beginning of the 2024 season. There aren't any IFs breaking down the door at AAA (Lee may get there in 2024, but so far in AAA he's 2-18), I say let's get there now.    
  9. Like
    weitz41 reacted to Matt Braun for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (Mid-Season) + Writeups   
    System overview:
    A lot changes in half a season. Royce Lewis finally departed the prospect list nearly 6 (six!) years after the team drafted him first overall in 2017. Edouard Julien and Louie Varland also lost their prospect status, weakening the high-end of the list despite a recent influx of incredible talent. Speaking of which…
    Walker Jenkins! The Twins actually did it; they eschewed their conservative desires and simply took the best player available at number 5: a sweet-swinging high-schooler who drew incredible reviews for his makeup. You could probably write a book with the superlative ink spilled about Jenkins over the past few days, but there's a good reason for that: he’s a stud. He immediately gives the team a fascinating, dynamic top three of Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and himself. He hasn’t even been signed yet, so let’s not get carried away, but it’s certainly an exciting time for the Twins system.
    Which, I think, is the strongest it’s been in a few years. The team is now undeniably at the heart of the pitching movement, churning out and improving arms at a breakneck pace, making their pitching prospects that much more exciting. There are about four or five legitimately impressive arms in the system drafted in 2022, and with about 60 pitchers taken in this draft, a few more are certainly on their way. It’s madness. But it’s a good kind of madness. 
    I’ve done something different with this list. As you’ll see, batters and pitchers are separated—something I’ve always felt should be done given the differences between the two. This is especially true these days, as any arm with one or two interesting characteristics is millimeters away from breaking out; hitters don’t currently enjoy such an advantage. Here’s the list:
    Hitters:
    Brooks Lee, 22, 5’11” / 205 - SS Now that Royce Lewis is finally no longer a prospect (for the first time since 2017!), Brooks Lee takes over as the best prospect in Minnesota’s system. There’s a lot to like in his tools; his defense isn’t consistently excellent at shortstop—he’s missing the kind of raw athletic force that, say, Carlos Correa possesses—but he’s nimble enough to make plenty of wow plays and could stick at the position in the majors. If not, he’ll be fine at third or second. The Twins appear dead-set on getting him reps here, as he’s barely started anywhere else in 2023. 
    Offensively, he’ll likely hit, but his bat isn’t bulletproof. He doesn’t own any one overwhelming attribute, but he does most things pretty well and should never embarrass himself with poor swing decisions. Overall, he looks a lot like Marcus Semien with a little less pop—but I will warn that the lack of consistent game power is a concern. Really, though, most knocks feel like extreme nit-picking for a 22-year-old holding his own at AA in his first full year in organized ball. He’ll be fine and should join the Twins sometime in 2024.
    Emmanuel Rodriguez, 20, 5’10” / 210 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez is a lesson in two parts: one, that monthly stat-worrying over prospects is often foolish; and slack should be handed to players returning from major surgery. Rodriguez spent April and May striking out at Gallo-ian rates before deflating his whiffs to palatable levels; he’s punched out at a 25.5% clip since June started. And while that cutoff is as arbitrary as any, I think it’s clear that Rodriguez is far more comfortable at the plate these days than when the season started.
    He still has laughable power as his swing-as-hard-as-humanly-possible approach yields monster homers and titanic bullets shot all around the field, offering welts to fielders who stand in their way. The whiffs will probably always be present, though, as he has a habit of running deep counts. If he continues to evolve, he could be the toolsy stud center fielder of the future for the Twins. The bust potential is high, though.
    Walker Jenkins, 18, 6’3” / 190 - OF Surprise! After blowing smoke around Jacob Gonzalez for a few months, the Twins took the sane route and drafted an excellent high school prospect. I’ll repeat the common refrain here; Jenkins could have gone 1st in any normal draft, and the Twins are deeply fortunate to have such an impact talent in their farm system.
    It’s a little silly trying to rank recently-selected players alongside pros with hundreds of at-bats under their belt, but you have to put the guy somewhere, and I thought right behind Emmanuel Rodriguez was the best choice. I don’t really have a good reason for this choice; he can move up quickly with early success.
    -------------------------
    Matt Wallner, 25, 6’5” / 220 - OF The man who just cannot find a roster spot. Matt Wallner is the antithesis of Max Kepler: he’s going to swing hard, clobber a lot of baseballs, and play bumbling, clumsy defense in right field. We’ve seen his style of play work at times, as apparent by his little MLB playing time this year, but his extreme contact deficiency will spell ugly hitting streaks, and I worry what major-league pitchers are going to do to him once they become comfortable. Still, he rakes. His max exit velocity is already elite, and it’s not impossible to imagine an Austin Riley-like metamorphosis from hulking slugger to well-rounded nuclear offensive force.
    Defensively, Wallner is going to cost the Twins runs. He may earn some back with his arm—a true bazooka that will vex greedy baserunners, or just keep them stationary in fear—but the dropoff from Kepler to Wallner will be obvious. Minnesota’s favor towards flyball pitchers, and their insistence on playing Kepler and Gallo may keep him hidden on the periphery longer than most have the stomach for.
    Tanner Schobel, 22, 5’9” / 170 - 2B/3B Tanner Schobel is something of a throwback to the 2000s Twins: a slick do-it-all infielder with above-average speed and a good chance at becoming a roughly 2 WAR player for more years than you realize. He’s even added more ISO (in a pitcher’s league!) as his extended play with Cedar Rapids has been powerful. The thump may not be a mirage; Schobel slugged .689 his sophomore season at Virginia Tech. He loads up like Eugenio Saurez, allowing the ball to travel a little further than most before the full power of his torque releases, usually in a punishing manner (to the ball).
    Defensively, Schobel has mostly split time between second and third—his two most natural positions. He could potentially play shortstop, but that position has seen a lot of Noah Miller and Jose Salas, making it difficult for Schobel to earn playing time there. Overall, Schobel fits a likeable infielder mold that many good-to-great players have thrived in.
    -------------------------
    Yasser Mercedes, 18, 6’2” / 175 - OF An expensive international signing from a few years ago, Yasser Mercedes showcased a dynamic offensive profile in 2022 before completely falling off a cliff in his first taste of stateside ball. Was he a victim of untrustworthy DSL stats? Is this a fluke? It’s far too early to tell; for now he’ll stay stagnant in my prospect list. 
    Austin Martin, 24, 6’0” / 185 - SS/OF Oh what a fall for Austin Martin. You know the story by now: his flaming college performance capitulated immediately after the Blue Jays drafted him, and now the Twins are looking to get him back in the groove. 2022 was almost a complete loss, but Martin flashed life in September, and had a respectable enough AFL to soften his fall from grace.
    Frustratingly, an injury knocked Martin out of commission until a few days ago, when he finally popped back up on the Saints’ roster. A strong showing could earn him a quick promotion, as Royce Lewis is currently on the mend well until August; José Miranda took his place but could be shuffled if his bat doesn’t turn around. Hopefully Martin finds the minimum power needed to become a quality major-league bat, because his potential is of a classic two-hole batter, slashing hits across the field while stealing at whim. 
    Luke Keaschall, 20, 6’1” / 190 - INF The Twins selected Luke Keaschall—an infielder out of Arizona State—with their second-round pick in 2023. Plenty of excellent alumnus call that college home, and Keaschall could join them soon, as he absolutely smoked PAC-12 pitching with a .353/.443/.725 slashline. We’ll understand Keaschall more as a prospect in time, so consider this ranking very loose; he could move up or down easily. 
    Noah Miller, 20, 5’11” / 190 - SS Alright, I was probably wrong about Noah Miller. I grasped tightly onto his excellent strikeout-to-walk rate in 2022, but now that has evaporated, leaving a powerless, on-base-less profile only buoyed by his excellent shortstop defense. He added a tinge of power in 2023, upping his ISO almost .030 points up to .094, but that hasn’t been enough to save his hitting, and infielders who hit like this need a legendary glove to stick around in MLB for any serious period of time. 
    Noah Cardenas, 23, 5’11” / 195 - C/1B I still cannot fathom why Noah Cardenas is not more well-received as a prospect. He’s hitting for a 129 wRC+ with the Kernels—as a catcher, mind you—after crushing A ball with similar vigor. His pop is more in doubles than homers, but he can take a walk like no one’s business, and that kind of plate control should translate well as he progresses up through the minors.
    The bugaboo: his defense. The Twins know this, and often spell time at 1st and DH (although Andrew Cossetti’s presence feeds into this decision as well). We don’t have public catching defensive metrics, but Eric Longenhagen rated him a 30-grade defender, and I’m willing to believe in his assessment. Still, the Twins were able to turn Mitch Garver into a workable defensive catcher—and Ryan Jeffers wasn’t a lock to stay at catcher either—so it’s very possible that Cardenas follows those two and blossoms into an everyday player. 
    Danny De Andrade, 19, 5’11” / 190 - SS We’re finally seeing Danny De Andrade playing in full-season ball and the results have been… whelming. He’s walked a fair amount, but the power is merely ok, and he’s probably not going to play shortstop long-term. Still, this is a 19-year-old; picking on him too much seems like an unwise decision. He should rise up this list further with time. 
    Jose Salas, 20, 6’0” / 191 - INF At this point, it’s unclear what Jose Salas does well. He’s in the middle of a dreadful repetition of A+ ball in which his slashline is so porous that I don’t even want to type it out. You don’t need to look it up; it’s bad. Normally this kind of performance would take a player completely off the list, but prospect evaluators swore he was around a 45 FV player coming into the year, and I’ll offer some slack in this regard. It won’t last long unless something changes quickly. 
    Kala’i Rosario, 21, 6’0” / 205 - OF It’s been an impressive rebound for Kala’i Rosario, who wandered the prospect desert after being selected in the 2020 draft. Once a pure power threat, Rosario has improved in each stat of his triple slash-line, giving him a mean offensive profile that Midwest pitchers haven’t figured out yet. He even sliced a few points off his strikeout rate. 
    Yet the hit tool remains shaky. There are major leaguers who can make it work with a swing-hard-and-maybe-something-good-will-happen approach, but it’s a wasteland of batters who pitchers figured out quickly; whether Rosario is any different will be seen shortly. He should see a promotion to AA soon, and his immense power could carry him to the majors. 
    -------------------------
    Andrew Cossetti, 23, 5’10” / 215 - C/1B Andrew Cossetti mashed A-ball with a hilarious .330/.462/.607 slashline before the Twins showed mercy on poor Florida State League arms, sending the menace to Cedar Rapids. His offense has cooled, but he still settled into a firmly above-average performance—especially for a catcher holding a .262 BABIP. He often spends time at 1st also, perhaps signalling Minnesota’s thoughts on his ability to stick as a backstop, but the bat may be real, and that’s enough to make Cossetti an exciting name to watch. 
    Jose Rodriguez, 18, 6’2” / 196 - OF Jose Rodriguez popped 13 homers in an impressive somehow-young-for-the-level DSL debut and is now hitting for a 93 wRC+ with the FCL Twins. Like Mercedes, the question regarding untrustworthy DSL numbers exists here, but I’ll give Rodriguez some benefit of the doubt considering his absurd youth and small sample of plate appearances at his new level. 
    Yunior Severino, 23, 6’0” / 189 - 2B/3B This is now the third season in a row that Yunior Severino has mashed the ball; his profile still scares the crap out of me. He makes his bread with power and walks, but the walks have dropped off since he reached AA, and we’re left with a high ISO/high BABIP batting line that, to me, seems unsustainable outside the Texas League. Maybe that’s unfair, but there’s also probably a reason the team has been slow to send him to AAA. 
    DaShawn Kiersey Jr., 26, 6’0” / 195 - OF Is this a toolsy outfielder finally breaking out, or an old-for-the-level batter picking on pitchers who don’t know any better? Who knows—and the truth probably lies outside my black-and-white dichotomy—but, there’s no way to say it any other way: DaShawn Kiersey Jr. is raking.
    His season under-the-hood looks largely the same as 2022, save for a nearly .040 point bump in ISO, but Kiersey Jr. has already clobbered nine homers; it took him three minor league seasons after being drafted to hit his first longball. Throw in game-altering stolen base potential, and Kiersey Jr. is a compelling late-breakout outfielder who’ll need to claw past some other uber-talented players if he ever sees the majors. He’s blistered the ball since June started, turning in a .347/.407/.579 slash with seven steals.
    Ben Ross, 22, 6’0” / 180 - INF If you want a guy who can rake across the field, Ben Ross is your guy. He’s bopped 13 homers in a notorious pitchers league, all while playing at 1st base, shortstop, 3rd base, left field, center field, and right field (he played second last year, but not this year). Whether he’s adept at all these positions or merely a warm body capable of moonlighting at them will be seen, but the profile is certainly fascinating. He could probably catch if need be. 
    Misael Urbina, 21, 5’10” / 190 - OF Misael Urbina is continuing his every-other-year pattern of not hitting. It appeared he bounced back nicely after a truly awful 2021 season, but not one number of his A+ slashline starts with a “.3” and, yeah, that’s not gonna play. The talent is still evident, but smooth sailing it has not been, and I worry that Urbina is not going to live up to the promise he showed in 2019.
    Aaron Sabato, 24, 6’2” / 230 - 1B It’s been a molasses-slow movement through the system for the 2020 1st-round selection. He hasn’t lived up to the hype he saw out of college, but—somehow—he’s dutifully earned promotions and usually turns in above-average performances after becoming acclimated to his competition. That’s not what you want from a 1st-round pick, but there’s still a very real chance Sabato can contribute to the major-league team.
    Pitchers:
    Marco Raya, 20, 6’0” / 170 - RHP The recently promoted Marco Raya represents Minnesota’s best shot at a top-of-the-rotation arm. That isn’t to say that he’s a lock to dominate—and, indeed, undervalued arms like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have proven that the best MLB pitchers aren’t always the well-known guys—but, if anyone here is a betting man, Raya would be the favored horse. He attacks batters with an ideal vertical fastball and a pair of devastating breaking balls, known to bring hitters to their knees if they swing improperly.
    Despite being over three years younger than the average competition at A+ ball, Raya smoked hitters, punching out nearly 30% of batters faced while chopping two percentage points off his walk rate from last year. It’s difficult to parse whether this was Raya just being plain better than these hitters, as the Twins capped his innings total in his starts at four, but the numbers are hard to ignore, and the team may be off-setting their conservatism with an aggressive promotion to the Wind Surge. The Texas League is known for hitting; good luck to Raya with his new competition. 
    David Festa, 23, 6’6” / 185 - RHP There’s a strong argument for David Festa as the better pitching prospect, and, in the end, Raya won by a sliver. This is no knock on Festa; the Seton Hall product followed a now well-paved road set by the Falvey Twins, as he almost immediately enjoyed and sustained a four-tick velocity bump. The strikeouts soon came. 
    With effective offerings in his sharp slider and surprisingly effective changeup (surprising only in that every pitching prospect has a “developing” cambio), Festa has impressive peripherals at AA, even if the walks have trended up with subsequent promotions. He was recently added to the Futures Game roster, and could see time with the Twins in 2024 if the current glut of 40-man options prove insufficient. 
    -------------------------
    Connor Prielipp, 22, 6’2” / 210 - LHP Almost a year after the Twins selected him, Connor Prielipp remains a mystery. He made exactly one start for the Kernels before hitting the IL, shuttled off to the grand nothingness that is the Twins’ prospect injury list, only evident through occasional tweets and whispers. The team finally ended his season, giving us 1 (one) start and no new knowledge on what Prielipp could become.
    It’s frustrating given Prielipp’s potentially dominant slider; a healthy Prielipp could easily be one of the best prospects in Minnesota’s system, but he can now only claim a combined 34 ⅔ innings between his time at Alabama and in pro ball. What will eventually become of the 22-year-old is just as unclear as when the Twins drafted him in 2022. 
    Charlee Soto, 17, 6’5” / 197 - RHP If you built a pitcher in a lab, this is what he would look like—6 foot 5 inches with a big fastball and yeah, you get the idea. Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs described his heater as sink-oriented, which does differentiate him from your typical ride/carry guy so coveted by MLB teams these days.
    Like Walker, ranking Soto is a fool’s errand. He’s even younger than your typical high schooler at 17, and I doubt we’ll understand Soto more as a prospect for at least a few years.
    -------------------------
    Simeon Woods Richardson, 22, 6’3” / 210 - RHP Disastrous. Following a minor stabilizing season at AA and AAA last year, Simeon Woods Richardson is imploding in 2023. His K-BB% is 3.7%, far far far below the ground level acceptable for even a below-average major-league arm. 
    This is nothing like the pitcher the Twins expected to receive in 2021—and he’s so far removed from his performance at any part of his minor league career that an injury is the only real explanation for his troubles. Minnesota pulled this same thing with Jordan Balazovic in 2022, allowing him to take drastic lumps while recovering from an injury, but at least Balazovic still had the Ks; Woods Richardson has nothing. With other arms clearly ahead of him in the depth chart, Woods Richardson’s path to the majors appears blocked, or at least heavily guarded.
    Jordan Balazovic, 24, 6’5” / 215 - RHP I think Jordan Balazvoic has been ranked differently in each list I’ve made, and I don’t think that’s a good thing. He has rebounded nicely from his putrid 2022 season, and parlayed a strikeout/walk oriented AAA performance into… a BABIP-aided 1.80 ERA over 10 major-league innings. No, I don’t get it either.
    There’s legitimate upside, though, with Balazovic’s killer vertical fastball/curve approach that could transform him into the new Griffin Jax. That may be a disappointment from the height of his prospect days in 2018 and 2019, but Jax is a valuable piece on the Twins; hopefully Balazovic will be as well. 
    Blayne Enlow, 24, 6’3” / 170 (doubtful, but it’s what Fangraphs says) - RHP Risen from prospect ashes like the phoenix of old, Blayne Enlow might actually be a major-league arm. After being DFA’d and left out to dry last year, Enlow remained a Twin, crushing AA while halving his walk rate and adding a few more strikeouts to the mix. The promotion to AAA came soon.
    His time with the Saints hasn’t been as fruitful, but 17 ⅓ innings is a small sample, and I’m willing to bet on a future where Enlow can find an effective role in the majors. 
    Brent Headrick, 25, 6’6” / 235 - LHP I still don’t really know what to make of Brent Headrick. He has a tremendous and a disastrous fastball, leading me to believe that he’s going to be a reliever long-term, not a starter. His height, odd arm action, and command should secure him a spot on the team in some capacity, but that fastball problem is dire, and it may not be easy to fix. Headrick gets a leg-up on other, similar pitchers because of his major-league readiness. 
    Cory Lewis, 22, 6’5” / 220 - RHP One of Minnesota’s many interesting pitchers from the 2022 draft, Cory Lewis has been a buzzsaw. There’s nothing overwhelming about his profile, but he can command the hell out of his fastball and slider while occasionally tossing in a knuckleball, just for fun. 
    Lewis’ ordinary draft stock, and his status as a developed college arm makes it difficult to decipher his undeniable dominance; I’ll keep him here for now—right in the middle of the pitcher melee that separates the best pitching prospects in the system from the rest of the herd. This is not a slight. Minnesota has proven wise in turning arms like Lewis into quality major leaguers, so this isn’t your normal piece of the scrap pile of young pitchers.
    Andrew Morris, 21, 6’0” / 195 - RHP Andrew Morris hasn’t been as overwhelming as his 2022 draftee peers, but he owns a potential outlier offering, and that buoys his profile while making him a real prospect. The pitch? A carry-monster fastball that usually sits in the lower 90s but can scratch 95—something that Bryce Miller has proven can dominate by itself. Throw in a solid slider, and Morris could easily be yet another college breakout arm for the Twins. 
    Zebby Matthews, 23, 6’5” / 225 - RHP Zebby Matthews tore up the Florida State League with Maddux-like dominance, creating an air of excitement around the Western Carolina University product, before a promotion to Cedar Rapids shot that down. His xFIP is still fine, but his strikeout rate plummeted. The rest of the season will tell us who the real Matthews is.
    There’s still a lot to like in his profile; he throws six legitimate pitches with good control, and that alone could carry him to the majors. The cutter appears to be the critical offering.
    C.J. Culpepper, 21, 6’3” / 193 - RHP You could basically copy/paste the previous sentiments regarding A-ball dominance. C.J. Culpepper—no relation to Daunte, trust me—earned the second-highest signing bonus of any California Baptist University player ever (name me the two MLB players from that college without looking it up and I’ll give you five dollars) and almost immediately crushed his competition with the Mighty Mussels. A promotion to Cedar Rapids cooled his stats (in only two starts), so, again, Culpepper’s prospect status is unclear.
    Still, a 27.9 K% cannot be ignored, and Culpepper soon could rise further up this list with more impressive starts.
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo, 20, 6’1” / 160 - RHP I haven’t seen many pitchers like Alejandro Hidalgo. His command is either fine—with maybe a walk or two here or there—or it’s disastrous, completely wiping out his outing with four, five, six walks over a shockingly low inning total. When he’s on, he has a devastating fastball/changeup combo and looks lethal; when he’s not, duck. 
    Ronny Henriquez, 23, 5’10” / 155 - RHP Entering the season as a dark-horse, hipster pick to carry important major-league frames, Ronny Henriquez has stumbled through a difficult season. An elbow injury was the first culprit, then he walked everyone and their mother at AAA, and a recent oblique strain knocked him out of commission for two weeks. He’s only allowed one run since returning, but the walks are still uncharacteristically overwhelming; he’ll need to fix that issue before he can rebound on this list. 
    Matt Canterino, 25, 6’2” / 222 - RHP Matt Canterino has not thrown a competitive pitch in over a year. Given his injuries and missing innings, it would be a miracle for Canterino to become an effective starter; the bullpen is his likely future home. If shorter bursts can keep him healthy, he could dominate in that role. 
    Kyle Jones, 23, 6’1” / 200 - RHP Yet another 2022 draft pitcher, Jones isn’t quite the strikeout artist seen in his peers, but he acquires groundballs at a hefty rate while keeping his whiffs and walks around league average. This looks like a vanilla, but safe profile that could earn him under-the-radar promotions to the system’s higher levels.
     
  10. Like
    weitz41 reacted to Doc Munson for a blog entry, 2nd half moves   
    Does this FO, and Field Manager realize their jobs are the line? OR is this just a situation fo ..."thou doth protest too much"?  The insistence that the cures to our offensive woes are currently on this team are baffling. Of course you need to publicly back your guys... to a certain extent. You cannot continue to back your guys as they are setting ALL TIME strike out records, and other standards of offensive ineptness of historical nature.  So what do we do? and who is available?
    I am not going to do a deep dive into who are sellers and what they are selling, instead just take a quick look on what our team can control.
    the record setting ineptness on our offense means at a minimum the hitting coach goes. IF you have SOME guys striking out a tone and others not, then you can pin it on the players. when EVERYONE K's, then it is the general approach/hitting philosophy. And this ladies and gentlemen come from the hitting coach. Even changing hitting coach and our overall approach wont help too much, because our FO did the shopping and secured players who are all or nothing type hitters. which brings us to the players.
    Gallo. Seems like a nice person, and can hit the HR. 15 HR at the break is ok in general, but for someone who has a .186 avg, K's at nearly a 50% clip and produces a total of 28 runs on those 15 HR it is no longer all that ok.  It was an interesting try, and he single handedly helped us win multiple games right out the gate, but he needs to go. No questions asked.
    Buxton, while I just trashed Gallo, one could say that Buxton's numbers are in the same ballpark across the board, with even lower OPS, yes but he is signed long term, and no one will take that contract, so as much as it hurts him clogging up DH, he stays.
    Kepler, he also needs to be gone... like yesterday. His K rate is not nearly as bad as the first two above, it is in fact someone decent at about. 25%,  We all thought the no shifts would be a boost for Kepler, but he is hitting just .207, and an unplayable .688 OPS. He plays a good defense and on a juggernaut of an offense, you could afford to keep him and bat him 7, but on this offense you cant. What makes it worse is that we are wasting the potential (and yes I hate that word too) of Matt Wallner as we continue to let Gallo (no future with this team even taking this year out of it) play over someone who COULD have a future, and couldn't perform worse.
    And Here is the weird thing... on a team of epic offensive futility, I just laid out a case (with exception of Buxton, but sad he plugs up DH) of removing our top 3 HR hitters!!!  haha  That in and of itself shows how the "swing for the fences" style just doesn't work!!!
    QUICK!!!  who is #3 on the team in RBI?  Yes, it is still Trevor Larnach!!!!  and he is only 7 back of the team lead.  Yes that should scare and depress you!!!  as well as "FAlvine".
    Ultimately the Twins need to find their "Elly De La Cruz".  Of course players of that Calibur are generational, but what I am talking about a player with that attitude, A player that is going to say... "You know what... I am going to get on base and steal 2nd, 3rd, and Home in the span of 2 pitches".  We need to go away from the sell out for the HR, and go to a RUN RUN RUN  offensive philosophy. Give me a .260-.275 hitter who has the ability to steal bases on command...  AND give the green light at all times, over a high K high HR guy any day.
    Put pressure on the pitcher incentivize guys to swing for doubles and we score a ton more runs... and HR will come naturally.
    Heck, if nothing else, just go ahead and give DaShawn Keirsey a call up from our system. At 26 and his secodn stint at AA he is hitting over .300 (career .258) with 50-60 SB type speed.  Or trade fro Jordyn Adams from LA Angels, 
     
    Just do SOMETHING!!!
    We cannot just stand pat  and "hope" our guys will just magically turn it around. iF we do then not only is this season at risk, but we will go into 2024 with more questions than answers on the field, and have new openeings in FO and Head Coach to come in next year to start their own 2-3 year rebuild plan.
  11. Like
    weitz41 reacted to Brandon Peddycoart for a blog entry, Woods Richardson Leads Saints to 11-5 Victory, Varland Starts Monday   
    Saint Paul, Minnesota - The temperature was not the only thing hot at CHS Field on Sunday afternoon. The Saints bats were once again on fire gliding past the Gwinnett Stripers 11-5 in front of 7,475. The Saints improved to 48-31 on the season. 
    In the bottom of the first, Trevor Larnach hit his fifth homerun of the season. This one was to rightfield and gave the Saints a 1-0 lead. 
    Joe Dunand started the second with a single. He stole second base, which was his first stolen base of the season. Next, Yolmer Sanchez doubled, which tied the game at one. 
    A game changing inning would come in the bottom of the second for the Saints. Jair Camargo singled followed by walks from Anthony Prato and Elliot Soto. Next, Andrew Stevenson hit a grand slam to right field. The Saints took a 5-1 lead. 
    In the third Gwinnett would plate two. Eli White walked and Forrest Wall singled. Vaughn Grissom doubled, which brought home White. Wall was unable to score because he was picked off first base by Saints pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson. Next, Dunand doubled, which allowed Grissom to score. The Saints still lead 5-3. 
    In the bottom of the third, Chris Williams walked, and Jair Camargo doubled. This gave the Saints a 6-3 lead. 
    Elliot Soto singled and Stevenson reached on a fielder's choice in the fourth. Trevor Larnach singled on a soft ground ball to second base, which allowed Elliot to score. The Saints took a 7-3 lead. 
    Soto would continue his good day at the plate in the sixth. Soto doubled to lead off the inning. Gilberto Celestino walked. Larnach hit an RBI single which brought home Soto. 
    In the seventh, Andrew Bechtold hit his seventh homerun of the season. This one was to rightfield. The Saints took a 9-3 lead. 
    In the eighth, Sanchez walked followed by a double from Daniel Roberston. Roberston doubled allowed Sanchez to score. 
    The Saints once again would answer. Giberto Celestino tripled, and Chris Williams hit a sacrifice fly. Mark Contreras hit a homerun to right-centerfield. This gave the Saints an 11-4 lead. 
    Forrest Wall started the ninth with a walk. Grissom singled to put runners at first and second with nobody out. Dunand would ground out but both runners would advance. Luke Williams hit a sacrifice fly to center, which brought home Wall. St. Paul still led 11-5. Sanchez would fly out to end the game and the Saints would secure the 11-5 victory. 
    Sunday was another very good day offensively for the Saints. Seven out of the nine players in the starting lineup collected at least one hit. Larnach, Camargo, Bechtold, and Soto all had multi-hit games. Also, each person in the starting lineup came around to score a run. Soto led the way, scoring three times. 
    Simeon Woods Richardson picked up his first win of the season on Sunday. Woods Richardson worked 5.0 innings allowing three runs on six hits. Ronny Henriquez pitched 1.0 innings allowing one run on one hit. Brice and Murphy also pitched for the Saints. 
    Luetge was the only pitcher for the Stripers who had much success. Luetge pitched 1.2 innings allowing zero runs on two hits. AJ Smith-Shawver started for Gwinnett. He is the top prospect in the Atlanta organization. He worked 3.1 innings allowing seven runs (six earned) on five hits. He took his second loss of the season. 
    The Gwinnett Stripers and St. Paul Saints meet in game six of a six-game series on Monday night at CHS Field with first pitch scheduled for 6:07 p.m. Gwinnett will send RHP Allan Winans (6-3, 2.94) to the mound while St. Paul will counter with RHP Louie Varland (2-0, 6.66). The game can be seen on the Saints Broadcast Network, MiLB.TV, and heard on KFAN Plus, 96.7 FM. 
  12. Like
    weitz41 reacted to rwilfong86 for a blog entry, How about that!   
    At the end of May my wife and I made a trip to see the Wind Surge play. I didn't recognize most of the prospects but we quickly became fans of a young man named Yoyner Fajardo. That game Fajardo went 4/5 with a double, stole 2 bases and scored 2 runs. Fast forward to 2 weeks ago. We bought one of his MILB cards off eBay and figured we would take the chance and send it to him TTM to try to get an auto. And lo and behold today, look what showed up! How about that! Lifelong fans now!

  13. Like
    weitz41 reacted to jishfish for a blog entry, Twins/Pirates Draft Trade - Chaos   
    I want to begin by emphasizing the point that there is less than a 0.01% chance of this ever happening, but reading Kiley McDaniel's mock draft the other day and his mention of "chaotic vibe" got me thinking about a scenario that would qualify as "Willi Castro-level chaos".
    I want to be clear that this is not something I personally would want to see the Twins do. I think the clear and obvious choice should be to draft and develop whatever top 5 talent drops to them. But if that's not something they are interested in doing, I think this is a unique way to capitalize on that picks value.
    Let's layout some assumptions for this scenario.
    Assumptions:
    There is a consensus Top 5 in this year's draft, all of whom are of a talent level that would be in consideration at #1 overall most years.  The Twins may not be interested in all 5 of those players: They are most interested in Crews/Langford, but in talking with teams/agents leading up to the draft, neither of them is going to make it to #5.  Their draft models value hitters over pitchers, and they wouldn't be willing to take Paul Skenes at #5. The are looking for more immediate impact than a HS draftee could provide, and they wouldn't be willing to take Max Clark or Walker Jenkins at #5. The draft plays out the same exact way as Kiley's mock draft (Clark--> Crews--> Langford--> Jenkins--> Skenes) The Twins Front Office is starting to feel the heat and have decided 'Screw building for the future, we've lost 18 straight playoff games, no more', and are willing to go to some unconventional measures to improve this team at the trade deadline. All players mentioned from here on out will continue to perform at their current All-Star caliber level and remain healthy. Based on the above, what if the Twins approached the Pirates on Draft Weekend and gave them the option to walk away with two of the top five talents in this class?
    The Trade: Mitch Keller + David Bednar for Twins #5 Overall Pick
    Now I know what you're thinking. I can hear you screaming at your computer right now. "You idiot! You can't trade draft picks!". Yup, I know and am aware of that, I promise. You can trade PTBNL however, which is our little loophole to bring this back to reality. Obviously the Twins can't just send the #5 pick and associated bonus pool money to the Pirates. But taking a page out of the 2014 Padres book, they could make a deal with whomever the draft at #5 overall on a list of possible Players To Be Named Later, which would send that prospect over to the Pirates immediately after the World Series.
    Why would the Pirates consider doing this?
    The Pirates have been a nice story to start the year, but I don't think they (or anyone else) really believe they're close to contending. They're in this for the long run, and getting two top 5 talents in a generational draft would be a great way to do that. If this were agreed upon pre-draft, it opens up some really interesting possibilities for them to get creative. Assuming the word leading up to the draft is that neither of the College OF will be available at 5, that leaves Skenes/Jenkins/Clark as the three options. None of whom the Twins want long-term, but all of whom hold immense trade value. The Pirates lean into Kiley's "chaos scenario" and take Max Clark #1 overall because he will take the biggest discount, thereby allowing them to float a first round talent down to their second round pick. Assuming the draft plays out as assumed above, that would leave the Pirates walking away with Clark + Skenes + [Insert additional first round talent]. Why would the Twins consider doing this?
    Assuming the two College OF's they really want will not be available at #5, this gives the Twins a chance to capitalize on the trade value of one of the talents they aren't as interested in. The assumption here is that both Keller and Bednar will remain healthy and continue pitching at the level they have been. That means a sub-3.00 era, top of the rotation level for Keller, and A low-2's era, shutdown level closer for Bedner. Keller comes with 2.5 years of team control along with 3.5 years of control for Bednar, so you're essentially trading for the same amount of team control as you would get with the #5 pick. The Twins would go into the post-season with a top-3 rotation (Gray/Ryan/Lopez/Keller), plus a lights out bullpen duo in Bednar/Duran. I know the pitching hasn't exactly been the problem this year like it has in years past, but perhaps they choose to just lean into it being a strength and assume some of the bats will turn things around to be at least a league average offense. While the perception of this trade would be "The Twins traded Paul Skenes for Keller/Bednar", the reality would be that they chose Keller/Bednar > Jacob Gonzalez/[Insert second tier college hitter]. Again, the assumption is (right or wrong) the Twins would not be willing to use their pick on Skenes/Clark/Jenkins, instead preferring a college bat.  
    Is this something I would want the Twins to do or be excited about the Twins doing? No. I think they were gifted a Top 5 pick in a draft with 5 top tier players, and to waste that by taking someone besides one of those players would be stupid and a fire-able offense. But if some of what has been leaking out is based in reality, I would rather see them utilize that pick value like this, rather than squandering it on a Jacob Gonzalez or Jacob Wilson-level player.
    Would love to hear peoples thoughts and reactions if you have any! All I ask is that you consider the assumptions/scenario I laid out. This is all hypothetical and has absolutely 0% chance of ever happening, but I thought it was a unique idea and wanted to take some time to write it all out to see what it would look like.
  14. Like
    weitz41 reacted to LA Vikes Fan for a blog entry, Time To Shake Up that Underperforming Lineup?   
    The current lineup isn't working and hasn't worked for awhile. It's great that Farmer is back but Farmer isn't likely to provide the lineup spark we need. He was 0 for his last 11 with 8 strikeouts before he got hurt. If you look at the lineup/26 man roster realistically, who can be that spark? The only possible answer I see is Gordon - 6 for his last 20 with 2 HRs. Solano can't play defense anywhere on the field so he doesn't have much value if Buxton is the DH. I guess we now know why Solano was available. I would actually consider DFAing him for Julien or Hellman. 
    We need to shake up the lineup - Correa can't hit #2 and we need a better leadoff hitter. Kepler has actually performed . . . well, like Kepler usually performs  - a streaky .213/.308.427 (.735). We can argue if he should play regularly, but it's hard to argue he should lead off.  How about this for a lineup shakeup?
    Gordon LF
    Buxton DH
    Kirilloff 1B
    Polanco 2B
    Correa SS
    Kepler/Gallo  RF
    Jeffers/Vasquez  C
    Gallo/Farmer  3B
    Taylor CF
    The other thought I have is to DFA Solano or demote Castro and force feed Julien or Hellman up here. If it's Julien, lead him off at 3B, move Gordon to the 6 hole, bench Gallo and move Kepler to #8. I don't like that as much as I like the lineup above. To be honest, I don't really like either but I think they are the best we can do and I think both lineups are better than what we are trotting out every day.  A shakeup also tells guys like Correa and Gallo that they have to earn their lineup spots; nothing is just handed to you. 
    Thoughts? I can't come up with anything better. . .
  15. Like
    weitz41 reacted to SportsGuyDalton for a blog entry, Spring Training Winners and Losers   
    After a long, harsh Minnesota winter, Spring Training offers and a glimpse of green grass and the hope of a successful Twins season. The Twins’ time in Florida is like any trip to the Sunshine State—some visitors leave with a golden tan, others depart with bad sunburn. As the team prepares to head north, here are my winners and losers from the Twins’ Spring Training. Let’s start with the guys who got burned.
    Losers
    1. Kenta Maeda
    Spring Training stats should never weigh heavily in player evaluations, but when a veteran pitcher like Maeda returns from 19 months of Tommy John rehab, his performance will be scrutinized. Despite a solid outing today, Maeda’s spring has been mediocre. He has posted a 4.91 ERA in 14.2 innings, issuing 10 walks, striking out 14 batters, and showing inconsistent fastball velocity. These numbers aren’t awful, yet with Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Simeon Woods-Richardson all seeking a spot in the rotation, Maeda’s grasp of the fifth starter role grows looser. King Kenta will need to regain his pre-injury form quickly or risk being relegated to a diminished role.
    2. Trevor Megill
    Megill’s arm talent is undeniable. His fastball consistently touches 100 MPH and advanced metrics show that his breaking pitches are competent. Unfortunately, the on-field results never seem to match the underlying metrics (much like his bullpen mate Emilio Pagán). Megill entered the spring with a shot at a bullpen role with the Twins, then struggled to a 10.80 ERA and 2.10 WHIP before being demoted to Triple-A on March 19. Twins fans will probably see Megill again this season as he will be one of top relief options available in St. Paul, yet it’s fair to wonder how many second chances Megill will receive.
    3. Gilberto Celestino
    2023 is the most important season of Gilberto Celestino’s career. That is a strange statement considering Celestino played 122 games with the Twins last season and will likely spend most of 2023 in Triple-A. However, given Celestino’s limited minor league experience (only 75 career games above High-A), this season at Triple-A is critical for his maturation as a player. The thumb injury Celestino suffered early in camp required surgery, putting his development plan on hold while he is out until late April. Missing one month isn’t catastrophic, but finger injuries can linger. If Celestino rushes back or suffers a setback, his long-term development will pay the price.
    Winners
    1. Edouard Julien
    Despite all the praise that top prospect Brooks Lee garnered in Fort Myers, Julien is undoubtedly the Twins prospect whose stock has risen the most this spring. Across seven games with the Twins and four games with Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic, Julien is hitting .394 (13 for 33) with five homeruns and six walks. His advanced approach at the plate looks MLB-ready, mixing patience with power. The Twins’ infield depth and questions about Julien’s defensive home created a roster crunch that resulted in Julien being optioned to Triple-A on March 14, but Julien’s performance this spring shows that he is ready to contribute at Target Field.
    2. Kyle Farmer
    Farmer’s solid Spring Training—an OPS of 1.052 and four homeruns—has flown under the radar as health questions about Alex Kiriloff, Jorge Polanco, and Jose Miranda have dominated Twins infield storylines. The 31-year-old Farmer is a six-year veteran, so a good month of March doesn’t change his projected upside, but he is a “winner” here because he will leave Fort Myers poised to parlay his hot bat into important at-bats for the Twins. His infield counterparts Polanco and Kirilloff are starting the season on the Injured List, meaning Farmer will play a critical role in the Twins’ early-season success. If Farmer keeps hitting, the Twins offense will get a massive boost and Farmer could become a valuable trade chip to fill an everyday role on another team.
    3. The Twins Front Office
    There are plenty of valid questions about the Twins’ offseason moves. Will Joey Gallo rebound from his terrible 2022 season? And did the team need another left-handed hitting outfielder? How will the offense replace the bat-to-ball skills of Luis Arraez? etc. Regardless, one thing is clear this spring: this Twins roster is deep. Yes, Jorge Polanco and Alex Kiriloff are starting the season on the IL, however the Twins have starting-caliber replacements in Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, and Nick Gordon. Typically, exclusively DH-ing a Platinum Glove winner like Byron Buxton would wreck a team’s defense, but the Twins adding recent Gold Glove winners in Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo minimizes the defensive decline. And Bailey Ober, probably the odd man out of the Twins’ early-season starting rotation, has yet to allow a run this spring and continues to look like a fourth starter in a competent MLB rotation. Not to mention the prospect reinforcements waiting at Triple-A. All said, Spring Training has shown that this front office deserves credit for building the deepest Twins roster in recent memory.
    ...
    Thanks for reading! I'm interested to hear your thoughts and your winners/losers of the spring.
  16. Like
    weitz41 reacted to Greglw3 for a blog entry, Could Tyler White make the Twins opening day roster?   
    I’ve been watching Tyler White and the way he has been used, such that he has the second most AB of any Twin. His average is rising and he hit a recent home run. He has 26  HR in 760 MLB appearances (a Willie Wilson season, almost!) to go along with 103 RBIs.
    The Twins need a first baseman, Kirilloff seems quite iffy now and White could slide right in and just in 550 AB, he would be expected to hit 19 HR with 75 RBIs.
    It might take an unlikely chain of events for White to be the first baseman but I have to think they’re giving him the 2nd most AB on the whole roster for a reason.
     
  17. Like
    weitz41 reacted to Doctor Gast for a blog entry, Ricardo Olivar   
    Although the Twins are really hurting for viable future catching yet it seems like Ricardo Olivar is totally off the Twins radar. In '22, Olivar was named the MVP of the FCL, FCL post season All-Star catcher and FCL player of the month in July. Although he's listed at catcher, where he played the most of his games, he still played a lot of games at CF and some at 2B and cOFs. He's also good defensively w/ above average arm.
    Season Team Level Age G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA   wRC+         2021 MIN FCL 19 34 59 1 5 5 3 13.6% 28.8% .143 .290 .204 .339 .347 .336   92         2022 MIN FCL 20 40 154 5 16 23 5 11.7% 21.4% .256 .430 .349 .442 .605 .480   181 He got drafted in '19 but didn't start pro ball until '21 because of covid. Like a lot of these prospects during this time their development stopped & they became stagnant. The problem is he turned 21 last Aug, & that's a little old for rookie ball. My hope is like Endy Rodriguez exploding this year going from A to AAA, Olivar will do this coming year starting at A ball. Endy was Rule 5 draft eligible this year & Ricardo will be next year.
    Ricardo didn't even make TD's honorable mention but he's been on my radar & I'll be tracking him this coming year. 
  18. Like
    weitz41 reacted to Matt Braun for a blog entry, Matt's Top Prospect List (January) + Writeups   
    It's prospect season again. Pitchers and catchers will soon report, so our effort at Twinsdaily to cover the minor leagues will fire up once again, and that includes our prospect rankings.
    The system looks surprisingly strong. Despite a flurry of trades over the last 18 months or so, the Twins still have a top nucleus of elite talent, and the franchise enjoys solid upper-level pitching depth. They're a little low on gamechangers at the elite positions—centerfield and shortstop—but so is basically every system, and Minnesota could easily cover that deficiency with a healthy season from Emmanuel Rodriguez and continued development from their two DSL stars. Remember: tier matters more than ranking.
    Royce Lewis 6’2” / 200 (Prev: 1) Age: 23
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Nothing has changed my view of Royce Lewis since I last updated my list. He’s a potentially franchise-altering talent with a frustrating lack of baseball in his recent resume. Lewis’ short playing time in 2022 was a revelation, as he checked significant boxes—his ability to play shortstop and his hitting prowess—before the brutal knee injury cut off his time playing baseball. A much quieter batting stance appears to have unlocked his hitting potential. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do when he is healthy again.
    Brooks Lee 6’2” / 205 (Prev: 2) Age: 21
    Position: SS/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If you think Brooks Lee deserves to be in the one spot, I can’t argue with you; Lee is an incredibly safe bet to hit well, no matter where his defensive home is. Despite being drafted just seven months ago, Lee reached AA, playing in a handful of games for Wichita before calling it a season; he smoked A+ ball with a 140 wRC+. His immense hitting pedigree, combined with his lineage as a coach’s son indeed points towards an ideal makeup package that should serve him well as he transitions to big leaguer. He’ll probably impact the 2023 Twins and will undoubtedly affect the team in 2024.                                                        
    -------------------------       
    Emmanuel Rodriguez 5’10” / 210 (Prev: 4) Age: 19
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Potentially the most dynamic prospect in Minnesota’s system, Emmanuel Rodriguez’s nuclear 2022 fell violently when he tore his ACL in June. Still, Rodriguez walked an absurd 28.6% of the time while slugging .551 in a league that favors pitchers. Granted, it was just a 199 plate appearance sample. Still, I’m excited to see Rodriguez return to action healthy, and he could quickly become the Twins’ best prospect sometime next season.
    Noah Miller 6’1” / 190 (Prev: 3)    Age: 20
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A
    I am too high on Noah Miller; I will remain too high on Noah Miller until his hitting falls entirely off a cliff. Prospects who are locks to play shortstop do not grow on trees—at least none that I know—and Miller’s bat is just good enough to keep him a valuable contributor at the position. If it clicks offensively—and his strike zone awareness is already elite—we’re looking at a potential successor to Carlos Correa in a few years; he’ll need to gain more power, though.
    Marco Raya 6’1” / 170 (Prev: 8) Age: 20
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    “[Marco] Raya’s slider is Charon, come to ferry batters back to the dugout,” wrote Jeffery Paternostro for Baseball Prospectus in November—a perfect sentence. Raya carries the same risk all pitchers do—injury potential, a future in the bullpen—compounded by his smaller frame. But if he can stay healthy, Raya could vault into the top of the Twins rotation, dominating hitters with a compelling four-pitch mix and a bulldog mentality. Raya struck out 28.9% of batters over 65 innings with Fort Myers in 2022. 
    Jose Salas 6’2” / 191 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: SS
    Highest level reached: A+
    A new name! A critical, underrated addition to the Pablo López trade, Jose Salas adds another intriguing infield wrinkle to a system bursting with “people who can play shortstop,” not necessarily “shortstops.” A super young 19 in A+, Salas hit like an overwhelmed prospect, but some AFL seasoning plus an off-season of recovery could cleanse him anew. Salas hit .267/.355/.421 in A ball before his promotion in 2022. 
    Edouard Julien 6’2” / 195 (Prev: 7) Age: 23
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: AA
    If this were a list of favorite prospects, Edouard Julien would be top three, potentially sitting at the top spot. What’s not to love? The lefty smoked AA Wichita with a .300/.441/.490 line and then hit—and I’m not kidding here—.400/.563/.686 in the Arizona Fall League before ending his terror on pitchers for the season. He lacks a defensive home, but a team would move Heaven and Earth to find a spot for that bat somewhere. Minnesota added him to the 40-man roster this past season; we will probably see Julien in the majors soon.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
    Connor Prielipp 6’2” / 210 (Prev: 5) Age: 22
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: n/a
    Who is John Galt Connor Prielipp? The baseball world has seen startlingly little from Prielipp, as injuries limited his time with Alabama to seven starts. Still, he owns a mid-90s fastball and a power slider when healthy; 2023 will illuminate his prospect status.
    Simeon Woods Richardson 6’3” / 210 (Prev: 6) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Maybe one of the more crucial cogs in Minnesota’s 2023 pitching machine, Simeon Woods Richardson appears well-set to impact the major league roster soon. Armed with unique fastball traits, Woods Richardson held his own in a harsh Texas League environment in 2022, then torched AAA at the end of the year for fun. He earned enough respect to make his first Twins start—a five-inning outing notable in that he’ll never have to debut again; the nerves are behind him. Still somehow just 22, Woods Richardson struck out 27% of batters in the minors last season.
    -------------------------
    Louie Varland 6’1” / 205 (Prev: 10) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Louie Varland should rank higher on this list, but something in his profile doesn’t fully click for me. His fastball is excellent—a real jumper he can use in any count because of his low angle. But none of his other pitches stood out as difference makers, turning Varland into a one-pitch pitcher. His slider and changeup command was non-existent, and batters brutalized his cutter. That’s a negative paragraph for the supposed 10th-best prospect on the team, but that’s what I’ve seen from Varland, and until it changes, I remain bearish on his starting capabilities. 
    Austin Martin 6’0” / 185 (Prev: 13) Age: 23
    Position: SS/OF
    Highest level reached: AA
    Austin Martin’s wild 2022 bounced him more than any other player around this list. After slugging a dreadful .315 in a hitter’s league, Martin crushed in the Arizona Fall League, showcasing his older, successful mechanics in a dramatic redemption arc. He’s not a shortstop—that much is obvious now, but if his bat is back, then the Twins could have a quality 3-win utility player capable of playing a variety of positions. 2023 will be a crucial test. 
    Matt Wallner 6’5” / 220 (Prev: 9) Age: 25
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: MLB
    It’s hard to hold 18 major league games against a guy, but Matt Wallner’s Adventures in the Outfield stunk enough to deeply sour me on any notions of him replacing Max Kepler soon. The Twins appear to agree. With approximately 30,000 outfielders ahead of him, it would take a series of great tragedies before Wallner earns significant MLB playing time soon. Still, he shaved points off his strikeout rate in 2022—the biggest knock against him—and he could ride his outstanding power stroke to an elongated playing career. 
    Yasser Mercedes 6’2” / 175 (Prev: 11) Age: 18
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Yasser Mercedes did things as a 17-year-old that teenagers aren’t supposed to do. Yes, it was in the noisy environment that is the DSL, but 30 steals with a .555 slugging percentage is impressive, no matter the level. Mercedes will likely play in rookie ball in 2023, and I imagine his prospect package will become much more apparent in 2024 when he’ll still be just 19. 
    David Festa 6’6” / 185 (Prev: 20) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A+
    One of the most “pop-uppiest” prospect in the Twins system in 2022, David Festa commands a tremendous fastball/slider combo that torched hitters in the low minors. Although his numbers dropped following a promotion to A+ ball, Festa punctuated his season with a 10-strikeout performance over six shutout innings in a playoff game against the Cubs. We will see how Festa pitches in a tougher environment in 2023.
    Misael Urbina 6’0” / 190 (Prev: 12) Age: 20
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: A
    Misael Urbina is an excellent example of why prospect evaluations are a snapshot in time, not the law in written form: he couldn’t hit for any power in 2021 but re-played A ball again in 2022 and showcased a much-improved power stroke. Soon to be 21, Urbina should unleash even more strength this year, potentially shooting him further up the list. 
    -------------------------
    Brent Headrick 6’6” / 235 (Prev: 14) Age: 25
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A surprise 40-man addition, Brent Headrick’s numbers are perhaps more impressive than his raw tools. His breaker is a bit of a looping pitch, which MLB hitters–especially righties—could lay off of, but his fastball lands perfectly at the top of the zone, and his command is good enough that the breaker shape may not matter. He will probably impact the Twins in 2023—though it’s unclear in what capacity—and he could become a regular, reliable lefty swingman. 
    Jordan Balazovic 6’5” / 215 (Prev: 15) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AAA
    How do you rank Jordan Balazovic? Long considered the promised arm, delivered by our wonderful friends Up North, Balazovic faced a nightmare 2022 season, one so hideous that I don’t even want to post any stats from it. The Twins claimed he was healthy, but such a shocking drop-off in performance is almost unbelievable; hopefully 2023 will be a kinder year for Balazovic.
    Ronny Henriquez 5’10” / 155 (Prev: 17) Age: 22
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    One of the more exciting arms in Minnesota’s system, Ronny Henriquez spent a few months getting bullied by AAA hitters before turning around and delivering an adequate July through end-of-season performance. Armed with a fastball, slider, and changeup, Henriquez will pepper well-commanded off-speed pitches around the zone, hopefully enticing the hitter to bite before the end of the at-bat. His issue? A fastball that ends up either 1. In the heart of the strike zone 2. In the gap (if he’s lucky) 3. In the hands of a fan sitting in right-center field. Whether Henriquez can improve his heater will determine his success at the major league level. 
    Noah Cardenas 6’1” / 195 (Prev: 18) Age: 23
    Position: C
    Highest level reached: A
    I am still trying to understand why Noah Cardenas is not more well-regarded as a prospect. Catchers who hit for a 146 wRC+ aren’t common, and while he was older than your average A-ball hitter, I feel confident that Cardenas should continue to hit as he elevates through the system. Although catcher development is often strange, so he may run into weird pitfalls and unusual traps that keep him from improving linearly. 
    Jose Rodriguez 6’2” / 196 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 17
    Position: OF
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Like Yasser Mercedes, Jose Rodriguez is a 17-year-old whose only time in professional baseball is in the DSL—a sign that all hype should involve grains of salt and the such. Still, as a player even younger than most DSL hitters, Rodriguez pounded 13 homers and slugged over .600. He’s about as far away from the majors as possible. Still, you should keep his name in mind over the next few years as a potential big-league powerhouse. 
    Cody Laweryson 6’4” / 205 (Prev: 23) Age: 24
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    A personal favorite, Cody Laweryson prefers to trick hitters with his pitching motion: a lanky, swan-like delivery that combines the sudden violence of Carter Capps with the grace of Joe Ryan. Lawyerson crushed AA, striking out over 30% of hitters while holding an ERA just over 1.00. The Twins left him unprotected in the rule 5 draft, and no other team claimed him, giving Laweryson another year to prove that his play isn’t a fluke.
    Cole Sands 6’3” / 215 (Prev: 16) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: MLB
    Cole Sands owns one of the nastiest pitches in Minnesota’s system: a whirling breaking ball, here to alter planes and send batters home wondering if they even saw the pitch. The issue? The offering moves so much that Sands has difficulty commanding the pitch. He mixes in an effective splitter—which actually outperformed his breaker by xwOBA during his time in the majors—but his fastball drags down his profile. Sands might be a kitchen sink reliever if he doesn’t improve his heater. 
    Blayne Enlow 6’3” / 170 (Prev: 14) Age: 23
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    Blayne Enlow pitched in an entire season for the first time since 2019, and his results were mixed. He struck out 24.8% of hitters—which is good—but walked 11.6% of them—which is not good. The Twins DFA’d him earlier in the offseason, but after no team claimed him, Enlow will have another year in the system to prove he was worth his high draft pick. 
    Tanner Schobel 5’10” / 170 (Prev: 27) Age: 21
    Position: 2B
    Highest level reached: A
    The Twins sent Tanner Schobel on the fast track, pushing their 2022 2nd-round pick to A Ball, where he held his own. Although lacking in power, Schobel could carve out a career as a contact/OBP/defense threat capable of putting together a 3 WAR season if everything works out; many teams could use a player like that. 
    -------------------------
    Alejandro Hidalgo 6’1” / 160 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: A
    A newcomer, Alexander Hidalgo joined the Twins in the Gio Urshela trade. The Angels handled him with kid gloves, as he didn’t touch 40 innings despite making 10 starts. The owner of a plus changeup, Hidalgo’s pitch mix is otherwise unimpressive, but he could grow into an off-speed specialist if he finds more consistency with his curveball; his fastball lacks crucial characteristics. 
    Matt Canterino 6’2” / 222 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 25
    Position: RHP
    Highest level reached: AA
    I highly doubt that Matt Canterino will even become an effective starter for the Twins. His minor league innings total is barren, and the righty looks to be standing in a long line of Rice products driven into the ground by an indifferent coaching staff. Still—and this is the only thing keeping him on the list—his electric stuff could allow him to live as a 1-2 inning reliever.
    Alex Isola 6’1” / 215 (Prev: 24) Age: 24
    Position: C/1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A 29th-round pick, Alex Isola has hit well at every step in his minor league journey. He owns a well-rounded hitting package, trading off a touch of power for excellent plate control (13.0% walk rate vs. 18.2% K rate at AA), and could find himself playing some first base for the Twins if a few injuries take out key players. 
    Cesar Lares 6’0” / 155 (Prev: 28) Age: 19
    Position: LHP
    Highest level reached: DSL
    Another DSL prospect, Cesar Lares crushed his competition in 2022, holding an impressive 2.23 FIP over 46 innings. Again, he’s literally a teenager; we don’t know much about how he’ll perform against older, tougher competition, but he appears to be on the right track. Keep his name in mind. 
    Aaron Sabato 6’2” / 230 (Prev: 29) Age: 23
    Position: 1B
    Highest level reached: AA
    For two years now, Aaron Sabato has done just enough to keep his name in these prospect conversations, but time is running out for the former 1st-round pick. After hitting well at A+ ball, AA smacked into Sabato like a truck; whether he can recover in 2023 will potentially define his time as a Twins prospect.
    Yunior Severino 6’1” / 189 (Prev: 25) Age: 23
    Position: 2B/3B
    Highest level reached: AA
    A post-hype prospect received after the Braves got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, Yunior Severino broke out with big numbers at A+ ball before falling back to earth at AA. We will see if he can rebound at a higher level.
    Honorable mentions:
    Brayan Medina, RHP:
    Brayan Medina came over in the Chris Paddack trade and struggled to throw strikes in his time at Rookie Ball. He can touch the mid-90s and works well off a curveball.
    Danny De Andrade, 3B/SS:
    Danny De Andrade is an all-around player, lacking in one elite category but doing everything mostly well. He has yet to break out of rookie ball and could burst with his first (probable) playing time in full-season ball. 
    Kala’i Rosario, OF:
    Kala’i Rosario strikes out far too much, but he has good power for a 20-year-old and could improve with extra seasoning.
    Michael Helman, 2B/OF:
    Michael Helman hasn’t exploded with an overwhelming season yet, but he’s snuck his way into AAA, and his overall package could serve him well if the Twins need to call him up.
    Alerick Soularie, 2B/OF:
    Alerick Soularie still hasn’t tapped into his power potential, which makes his high strikeout rate hard to stomach. Still, he could figure it out any day now and shoot back up this list.
     
  19. Like
    weitz41 reacted to Nick Hanzlik for a blog entry, An Ace From Within; Dreams of Duran   
    Jhoan Duran is not only the best reliever the Twins have had since Joe Nathan; he is the most talented pitcher they have had since Johan Santana/2006 Francisco Liriano. There have certainly been talented players throughout that timespan, even an all-star or two, but no one has had the absolute shutdown stuff this guy possesses. If he is remotely near the zone, opposing hitters have little to zero chance of doing anything. So why not try him in the rotation?
    Twins fans have been begging for an ace since Santana's departure following the 2007 season. The closest we have come was probably Ervin Santana or Jose Berrios. Instead, we have been treated to the likes of Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Jake Odorizzi. They were not bad pitchers, but they were not aces. Don't get me started on the likes of Samuel Deduno, Ricky Nolasco, Scott Diamond, or Hector Santiago. Feel free to add some more of your favorite lukewarm bowls of mashed potatoes to this list. I'm sure I left off some true gems.
    So again, why not try Duran in the rotation? The whispers have already begun. He has starting experience (though with a bit of injury history). He's 6'5", 230lbs, and his body can take the innings. He has four pitches (4SFB, splinker, curveball, slider/cutter), a trait uncommon for relievers but usually necessary for starters. All the signs point to him being rotation capable, especially if he were to add a change-up. It wouldn't even have to be that good, and he would have an insane makeup as a starter. The temptation is palpable, and I have had these thoughts in the back of my head since the first time I watched this guy unleash the nastiest repertoire I have ever seen. It's not just the velocity and the movement, but the command. It is unique from others that possess stuff approaching the filth he brings.
    All this being said, the answer is to resist the temptation. As tantalizing a notion as it would be, knowing every fifth day you get to watch this magnificent beast bring triple digits and then make hitters look foolish as they flail over the top of a mid-upper 80s hammer, we must resist.
    Look at his numbers, folks. It's upsetting how good he was, especially in the second half when he really found his mojo. He was a man who was never rattled, never deterred. He knew he was better than anyone stepping into that box, and yes, I mean ANYONE, and it showed.
    Confidence and mental state are crucial to all aspects of baseball, but especially to pitching. To a certain degree, to be a true stud on the mound, you have to have the mindset that you are the biggest and baddest motherf----- in the land. No one can beat you. That mindset comes from confidence, which comes from success.
    Putting Duran in the rotation risks that success. Duran just turned 25 this month; messing with a young player who has already achieved that mindset is dangerous. You risk getting the yips after a few bad starts and then not being able to return to form in the pen. The yips are real and can happen. Anyone who has pitched knows this to be a harsh reality. It is just not worth it. Yes, we may never know if we have a true ace amongst us here and now, but we have the baddest mofo we could ever ask for, and that needs to be enough.
  20. Like
    weitz41 reacted to Greggory Masterson for a blog entry, What the Recent Number Changes can Tell Us   
    On December 10th, it was announced that a few Twins had changed their jersey numbers. Trevor Larnach from 13 to 9, Emilio Pagán from 12 to 15, Kyle Farmer from 17 to 12, Bailey Ober from 16 to 17, and Griffin Jax 65 to 22.
    This is nothing out of the ordinary; a few players each offseason on any team will request a number change for one reason or another. However, this time, something peculiar happened shortly thereafter.
    Joey Gallo was signed less than a week later, and he claimed the 13 number, his number in Texas and New York, which had conveniently been vacated by Larnach. Is this a coincidence? My money is on no; it's incredibly meaningful.
    I did exactly what you have come to expect from old Gregg--I've scoured the list of remaining MLB free agents to see what this might mean for the rest of the offseason, and it leaves more questions than answers. Here are my findings:
    #9 (Taken by Trevor Larnach)
    The only remaining free agent who wears 9 is Dee Strange-Gordon, Nick Gordon's half-brother. Might there be a rift between Larnach and Gordon now that he's preventing his big brother playing for Minnesota? Probably. It's a good thing that Correa is back to try to help keep the locker room intact. Between this and fighting over left field playing time, things could get ugly.
    #12 (Vacated by Emilio Pagán; Taken by Kyle Farmer)
    Farmer really stepped on Pagán's toes here. It looks like Emilio may have been trying to open the door for Rougned Odor to don a Twins jersey, which makes sense given his history of sucker-punching opponents who homers off his pitchers. Having Odor at second base would definitely help keep Pagán's homerun numbers in check. Watch for a rift between these two teammates as well.
    #15 (Taken by Emilio Pagán)
    It's been a rough 24 hours in Twins territory with the last two #15 free agents signing elsewhere in Raimel Tapia and Brian Anderson. When will the team finally pull the trigger on the guys they really want?
    #16 (Vacated by Bailey Ober)
    This was the spot that showed the most promise, though with Trey Mancini coming off the board this week, the remaining pool is thin in Cesar Hernandez and Travis Jankowski. I would bet that the Twins were more in on Mancini than suggested, given that they clearly forced Ober to change numbers to attract him.
    #17 (Taken by Bailey Ober)
    Ober apparently looked Chris Archer in the eyes and said "This town ain't big enough for two five-and-dives" and took his number, preventing his return. Go get 'em, Bailey!
    #22 (Taken by Griffin Jax)
    Learned men like me know that there was no shot of the Twins getting Andrew McCutchen with this stunt pulled. Think of the team, Griffin!
    This also rains on Jeremy Nygaard's hopes to bring back Miguel Sanó. Surely the big man wouldn't come back if he couldn't get his number back from a relief pitcher. To make matters worse, this also eliminates Robinson Canó from contention. Sure, he switched his number for Roger Clemens in New York, but Jax is no Rocket; he's Air Force, not Space Force.
    This also removes Luis Torrens as an option. Sad day for those of you with Luis Torrens on your offseason bingo card.
    #65 (Vacated by Griffin Jax)
    There isn't even a potential free agent with Griffin's old number. So selfish.
  21. Like
    weitz41 reacted to LA Vikes Fan for a blog entry, Enlow Stays IWth Twins   
    MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Blayne Enlow passed through waivers and has been outrighted to AA. I thought he might be part of a trade package or get picked up by a lesser team. Guess the FO knew better than I or many of us here did. I don't like everything they do but you have to give them props when they take a calculated risk and it works out. 
  22. Like
    weitz41 reacted to Doc Munson for a blog entry, 3 Moves still available for the Twins this off season   
    This is all of course predicated on Correa staying in New York. Also a couple of these moves are related to each other.
    #1 Trading redundant players. Not breaking any news here. Kepler and even Arraez have both been mentioned as trade candidates. Especially after the Joey Gallo signing. Yes the Twins could very easily keep Kepler and go with an OF of Kepler, Buxton, Gallo. AND if they feel Kepler will have a strong season with the shift rules changes, then the best move is to keep him and potentially trade him for higher value at the deadline. If he has a strong 1st half then that $10M team option for next year greatly increases his trade value. I am not sure what the trade value is for either Kepler or Arraez, so I am not going to sit here and say.. Lets trade Kepler for Sandy Alcantara to improve our pitching This trade group is also not limited to Kepler, Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff could all also be slotted into this scenario.  We cannot play them all, and there may even be better overall fits out there instead of them (although I like Wallner and Larnach). And this brings me to move #2...
    #2 Sign Domnic Smith. I still cannot believe he is unsigned. Dom is not a game changer, but he can play GG caliber defense at 1B. and has a very solid bat, with even "great bat" potential. He never got consistent ABs at his natural 1B position with the Mets. He could be signed at a very team friendly deal at this point. If there is decent trade value in Kirilloff, Kepler, any other LH or potential 1B on this squad then trading them and signing Dom is a great move, because not only would we secure Dom cheaply, but also get some return for players he will replace.
     
    #3 Call Texas regarding Ezequiel Duran. This again is dependent on what else we do, especially if we trade Arraez. Yes we have Farmer as a potential SS/utility IF kind of guy, but Ezequiel Duran can play MORE positions, is younger/cheaper, and I think an overall superior bat. he is a natural 2B, but can play 3B & SS, and has gotten some time in the OF. with Seager, Simien, Jung on the IF he is blocked. Maybe this is a good swap with Kepler as Texas is still looking for an OF. and while I like Polanco at 2B he is $7.5M this year and $10.5 next. SO this also helps free up cash IF the Twins ever decide to step up and pay in the deep end of the FA pool.
     
    AND... While I said these moves assume Correa stays with Mets. These moves make even MORE sense if something weird happens where Mets back out and the Twins can get Correa for something along the lines of the 10 years $285M they offered, although I would do something more like 8 for $250. (Higher AAV but less long-term risk). As these moves would clear $16M this year and $12-20M depending on options next year and replace with equal offensive output in Dom Smith & Duran).  Dom's position wouldn't be the same, but bat for bat Smith would be an upgrade over Kepler, and allow one of Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner to play the 3rd OF spot.
     
  23. Like
    weitz41 reacted to Ted Wiedmann for a blog entry, Willi Castro might be more Familiar than you Think   
    The Minnesota Twins recently signed Willi Castro to a minor league contract. He will not be the opening day shortstop, he likely won’t make the team, and in a perfect world, he probably never sees the Big Leagues in 2023. Having experienced a very not perfect 2022, Castro provides depth in several positions and has some intriguing skills worth noting. While digging, I found some interesting things about Castro that I would like to share and found him a more familiar player than I initially thought. 
    Feature Image via Tom Hagerty
    So far in his career, Willi Castro has not been a very productive Major League Baseball player. Through just over 300 games and 1,000 plate appearances, he is slashing .245/.292/.381 (.673 OPS) with a 4.7% BB%, 24.1% K%, 86 wRC+, and -22 total DRS (defensive runs saved) at six different positions through 2,338 innings and 1.6 fWAR. Not to be redundant, but he has been relatively unimpressive so far, hence why he was DFA’d from the Detroit Tigers and could only land a minor league contract. 
    So why would the Twins invest? For starters, minor league contracts carry almost zero risk, meaning if the Twins cut him halfway through the season, there are no negative consequences. Castro is a switch hitter who has been significantly better against left-handed pitching (career .711 OPS vs. LHP - .658 OPS vs. RHP). The Twins have been searching for more effective bats against left-handed pitchers, and he has Major League experience at six positions: 2B, SS, 3B, and all three outfield spots. In addition, Castro also has some eye-catching athleticism metrics. Per Statcast, his max exit velocity for his career is 115.4 MPH, which was the 95th percentile in 2021. Statcast registered his sprint speed in 2022 as the 78th percentile, and his arm strength scored in the 87th percentile, with his hardest throw hitting 97.0 MPH. 
    Can you think of any Twins players that sound familiar to Willi Castro? 
    The player that came to my mind is Danny Santana. Both players entered the Big Leagues with a bang, but their teams eventually moved on after both players failed to repeat their hot start. Santana bounced around in the Minor Leagues and resurfaced as a utility man with another breakout season in 2019 but was largely unproductive outside 2014 and 2019. Castro was exceptional in 2020 but has been relatively unproductive since and is following Santana’s footsteps by trying to survive in the Majors as a utility man. He logged about 800 more plate appearances than Castro, but their career numbers are similar in certain areas. 
    Here are some statistics that are very close for Castro and Santana:
    (Castro)  (Santana) 
    OBP: .292  .296
    BB%: 4.7%  4.8%
    K%: 24.1%  25.6%
    wRC+: 86  85
    xwOBA (League avg .316): .296  .290
    Z-Swing % (League avg 66.9%): 75.0%  74.5% 
    O-Swing% % (League avg 28.4%): 39.8%  36.9%
    Swing % (League avg 47.1%): 56.7%  55.3%
    Whiff % (League avg 24.7%): 29.2%  29.7%
    DRS at SS: -13 (696 Innings)  -15 (918 Innings)
    Sprint Speed: 78th percentile (2022)  74th percentile (2021) 
    Arm Strength: 87th percentile (2022)  96th percentile (2021)
    What stands out about these numbers? The similarities between the two players are plate discipline and bat-to-ball ability. These players are free-swinging, low-walk, medium strikeout hitters with good raw power that hasn’t entirely translated into game power, likely due to plate discipline or approach reasons. They also compare similarly as athletes and defensively at shortstop. 
    So how do they differ as players? Castro and Santana utilize their athleticism quite differently. Santana, throughout his career, has two different 20 stolen base seasons and has a 75/101 (74.3% success rate); Castro has only stolen 18 bases and is 18/28 (64.2% success rate) in his career. Santana also hit for a little more power than Castro has so far; Santana’s career SLG is .413, Castro at .381 with ISO (SLG minus BA, league avg .183) saying the same; Santana at .159 and Castro at .136. Castro has had his athletic abilities translate more to the defensive side of the ball. While neither player stuck at SS, Willi Castro has turned himself into a viable defensive option in the outfield, something Santana never quite got to. DRS (0), UZR (0.1), and OAA (-1) all agree that through 724 innings, Castro is about a league-average outfielder. They are less conclusive on Santana but overall are low, totaling 1945 innings, with DRS having him at -7, UZR at -1.1, and OAA at 1. 
    This move by the Twins carries a negative undertone due to how the offseason has been going so far but try not to let their failure in one area (or player) affect your judgment of Castro. He has some very tantalizing physical tools as well as spurts of success in the Major Leagues, not to mention Detroit is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in all of baseball. A deal with this kind of upside on a minor league contract is good for the Twins. While praising this signing seems contradictory because ideally, he never leaves St. Paul, we will likely see Castro at some point due to his versatility and the inevitability of injuries. Whether or not you are a fan of this move, I hope this nugget was interesting to you in some manner and I look forward to reading your thoughts on Willi Castro.
     
    Links and Definitions for some lesser known statistics: 
    xwOBA: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba
    wRC+:https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/weighted-runs-created-plus
    Z-Swing%, O-Swing%: https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/plate-discipline/
    Whiff %: total swings and misses/total swings 
    DRS: https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/drs/
    UZR:https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/uzr/
    OAA:https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/outs-above-average
     
  24. Like
    weitz41 reacted to Doc Munson for a blog entry, Joey Gallo?   
    I am sure at this point WHOEVER the Twins woudl go and sign a good chunk of us will complain.  At least it is a move, but does it really make sense?
    Gallo does not change the trajectory of the Twins, he could be decent, he could be good, but if he doesnt change the trajectory, is there really a reason to sing him? Don't we already have logjam... or at least a good number of options for OF/DH spots?
    Larnach, Kirilloff, Kepler, Wallner,   We have Garlick (expendable) on the roster, we have players at AAA who are close as well.
     
    Since 2015 here are his BA...  .204/.040/.209/.206/.253/.181/.199/.160  CAREER .199!!!!
    He hits less than Miguel Sano, actually strikes out MORE (if you can beleive that) so we pay him $11M.  
    Where does Gallo play? RF is his best position.  but we have Kepler.  He could be DH, but didnt we want to get away from having a primary DH?
    If you say, well that makes Kepler expendable yoru nuts!!!  We are now paying Gallo MORE then Kepler,   Kepler's BAD years are .220, that is a career year for Gallo.  I knwo batting average is not the biggest thing, but making contact and getting on base is!!
    Again, maybe Gallo has another career year at hits 40HR with a .230 avg.  and you want to talk about health???  2019 he played in 70 games, 2020 57, he did get in 153 games in 2021 and then 126 last year.
     
    So, no better than what we have (no better than Sano who we DFA), not a position of need, does not have a consistent history of playing 150 games.  OF COURSE lets go ahead and pay him $11M!!!  
    The banning the shift aint gonna do anything against K's.
    ANY sense that this FO has a clue is out the window... throw a low ball offer at Carlos Correa (relative to current market) and OVERPAY for Gallo.  BRILLIANT!!!
     
    Lets not pay $13M for Noah Syndegaard, lets pay $11M for Joey Gallo.
    Regardless of the results Gallo does this year, he could be MVP and I will stand 100% by the call that this is a HORRIBLE signing and shows incompetence. 
     
    Imagine that He was a draft pick and a prospect with the Rangers while Levine was in Texas just continues to show how myopic this FO is. There was obviously scouting  that had Levine like him to draft him, is he still stuck on those old scouting reports? does he think he can get the "true potential" out of him?
     
    I challenge ANYONE to provide ANY solid, coherent defense that says this signing is anything but horrid.  
     
    Anyways, LET's GO TWINS!!!
  25. Like
    weitz41 reacted to Doctor Gast for a blog entry, BTV   
    BTV stands for Baseball Trade Values. It's a website that gives a trade value on every single ball player in the system, where you can put together a  fantasticized trade and when posted are given a chance to accept or deny those trades.  Although they're not perfect, they give you a good consenses of a player's worth in a trade by reading reports, talking to scouts and managers.
    Like every real life trade, you can't just balance the value but you need to figure in the need, undetermined variables and how it effects the 40 man roster. That said I reject about 90% of the Twins proposed trades because they don't meet my criteria. Yet it's fun to research teams to see where their needs are and if they have anyone who'd fit our needs and what it would take put together a reasonable trade.
    I know some don't like it but I think it's a nice tool to put together a "in the ballpark" trade suggestion.
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