bean5302

Agreed. Popkins followed the plans laid out by the front office and he got scapegoated.

Right. If there is depth on the roster, Willi Castro's flexibility potentially adds value. AAA replacement players are not legitimate "depth." A full example. Willi Castro is playing RF (3.0 WAR) because Matt Wallner (4.0 WAR) is hurt. Royce Lewis at 3B (3.0 WAR) gets hurt so the Twins move Castro to 3B (3.0 WAR) instead of playing Lee there (0.0 WAR). Austin Martin moves to RF (0.0 WAR) to cover the position. The Twins lose 3 WAR to have Martin replace Castro in RF. The Twins gain 3 WAR to have Castro cover 3B to prevent Brooks Lee from playing there. The Twins call up Deshawn Keirsey from AAA to keep the bench warm and get coffee from the locker room. (0.0 WAR) Castro gives a net +0 WAR for flexibility.

Objectively valuing Vazquez vs. his peers looks about like this: Controlling run game - Below average Blocking pitches - Average Catcher framing - Anywhere from good to excellent (depending on the metric you use) Vazquez is an average to very good defensive catcher based on which catcher framing metric you use, and how much you believe in catcher framing. From a plate side of things, he's just plain abysmal to the point it totally offsets even the best of his defensive metrics. Contrary to the popular belief, the median catcher was an average hitter last year. #16 of 32 catchers with 300+ PA was Francisco Alvarez wRC+ 102. Vazquez ranked a miserable #31 of 32 catchers with 300+ PA last year in wRC+ at an unplayable 60. His offensive value cost the Twins 17 runs vs. the average MLB batter. Now, Vazquez's fans like bringing in arguments like "game calling" which has been debated in regard to how much that's in the hands of the catcher with the Twins, and it's a stat which has utterly eluded attempts to quantify it as a meaningful device in recent years. Furthermore catchers can use "cheat sheets" nowadays to see data on which batters struggle with which pitches. In all honesty, it seems most of the game calling is from the analytics department and coaching staff these days. The other argument which Vazquez's ardent supporters will bring up is "veteran leadership." It seems to be a factor which is also non-quantifiable, which is why it's so often brought into discussion. Christian Vazquez is a bad MLB player, but the Twins don't have any depth behind him (thanks, Obama!) so the Twins cannot move Vazquez without acquiring an MLB caliber catcher to replace him. The net savings of paying another team to take Vazquez (because of his negative trade value) and the Twins signing another catcher to replace Vazquez would be minimal. That's why he's likely to stick around.

Was Gordon (who was very bad) really that much worse than Margot at $4MM or Farmer at $6MM? I advocated keeping Gordon because he was league minimum, had versatility, and his bat was good in 2022. There wasn't much to lose, and there were better places to spend money.

Not sure why Miranda is the whipping boy around here? He posted slightly positive UZR/150's (a metric which is stable much faster than OAA) at 1B both in 2022 and 2024 (he didn't cover the position in 2023). Miranda doesn't have a particularly strong arm and he's slow. He doesn't have the physical skill set to excel at positions apart from 1B. I think there is a little more left in Miranda's tank. He's cheap, I expect he'll be average at 1B where the Twins have zero good depth, and he's controlled for many more seasons. What exactly does trading a cost controlled starting caliber position player at league minimum salary help with? Nothing.

Moneyball is about embracing analytics. Every team does this now, but for the Athletics, the method represented a major advantage over other teams. The Athletics would have been even better with analytics AND a big payroll. I'm not sure what relationship analytics methodology has to the Royals' rebuild... which came after being in back to back World Series' in 2014-2015. The Royals are a legitimate small market team who have a short window, but they expanded payroll when they were in the window. Only the Astros (who did their own full rebuild prior to them becoming a dynasty), and the Dodgers have been to the World Series more than the Royals in the since 2011.

I'd be happy with an every day regular player. A perennial MVP would be nice, but seems a bit greedy, haha

Willi Castro can only play 1 position at a time, and he's playing every day so no matter where you move him to, you're automatically subtracting Castro from starting in the preferred location. The only way Castro adds significant value with flexibility is if the Twins have adequate depth at the position Castro is vacating. This type of scenario is the only way in which Castro's utility actually adds value. Castro is the 3B and he's worth 3 WAR there and he's worth 3 WAR in LF. The 3 WAR starting LF gets hurt. The Twins' hypothetical 4th outfielder is only worth 1 WAR The Twins' hypothetical utility bench guy is worth 2 WAR at 3B. Result = Left field is neutral instead of losing 2 WAR by putting the 4th outfielder there, 3B loses 1 WAR with the utility guy covering Castro's primary position, Twins are up a net 1 WAR. In the scenario above, if the bench guy is worth 1 WAR, the Twins gain nothing. They're just reorganizing the deck chairs on the Titanic as it sinks. Basically, positional flexibility from an every day player is worthless if you don't have depth behind the flexible player: you're just robbing Peter to pay Paul as they say.

...why do you think MLB increased revenue sharing from 30% to 50%?

and 50% of the revenue of the top teams goes to the bottom half, some of whom have built that welfare check right into their budget (Tampa Bay Rays) Look at the NFL and compare it to MLB in terms of teams which make the playoffs. In any case, you just said the top teams get the least amount of WAR from free agency? There are different models to building teams in MLB.

Those two are a bit of a dichotomy. In a vacuum, he doesn't swing a ton at pitches outside the zone, which is good, but he's at the very lower ranges of acceptable for swinging at pitches in the zone, and that's compared to MLB hitters who are up against much better pitching. So Severino is pretty picky about what he swings at, and despite that, his contact rates are very poor. It's nice that his contact rate against strikes was much improved this past season because it was horrible in 2023. Severino was roughly league average in AAA over both 2023 (wRC+ 100) and 2024 (wRC+ 101 with a .321 BABIP). His walks were marginally up (9.8% to 11.9%) and his strikeouts down significantly (36.6% to 27.3%), but that came with a massive drop in power production (.278 ISO to .180 ISO). Despite him being just 24 years old, 2025 will be his 9th year in an MLB organization. Severino failed to pan out as a 2B/3B or... as the Twins delusionally hoped, SS. He has shown some flashes at the plate, but apart from an absolutely scorching June, he was pedestrian for a prospect or borderline unplayable (wRC+ 63 for Aug/Sep) last year. There's just not much to project for him. If the Twins weren't in a major payroll crunch, he'd likely be a DFA candidate.

There is no significant lack of parity. Even small market teams have shown a willingness to expand payroll into the top 1/2 of MLB when their window is open. Just because the Pohlad's have ignored that doesn't mean it's not right in everybody's face. The Royals pushed opening day payroll to $140MM (top 1/2) in 2017. The Orioles pushed opening day payroll to $164MM in 2017 $143MM in 2018, both (top 1/2). The Diamondbacks opened 2024 at $157MM (top 1/2) Even iron lock wallet Cleveland expanded to $134MM in 2018 (ranked #16) used Stevetheump cause it's easy. https://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm Once teams start building and their core appears competitive, teams go out and spend on free agents and then pick up big name targets at the deadline which push their payrolls up into the top half. Having a team which just starts building turn in a surprise season to make and advance in the playoffs isn't super common despite the Royals' surprise success this year. The build process identifies key missing pieces to turn the Pohlad definition of competitive (a .500+ ballclub) into World Series hopeful team, and even small market "competitive" teams are willing to trade and spend to fill the gaps. While the Pohlad family likes to run a .500 team with an ultimate goal of winning the division, almost all other teams in baseball are aiming for a World Series.

Rosario is striking out a lot and not walking enough to compensate against low minors pitchers, certainly lower caliber than what he played against all year. He wouldn't be in the AFL if the Twins didn't need him to show more, and I'm not sure what else they could be needing for him to show against lesser competition. This is his 4th professional season. BB and K rates stabilize pretty quick. Wallner is an example of plate discipline issues and how they have to be handled. I wasn't looking for a comp for Rosario since the two players have almost nothing in common. Kala'i Rosario is like a borderline top 20ish top 30ish prospect for a reason. It's great to see him hitting well, but I'd like to see him improve on the part of his game that will prevent him from hitting well enough to make MLB, much less succeed there.

1. Can the Twins move Vazquez? - Yes. But as pointed out in 5,000 comments over the past month where moving Vazquez has been brought up as some sort of legitimate option, the Twins don't have anybody who can backup Ryan Jeffers if Vazquez is moved so moving Vazquez doesn't help in a vacuum because the Twins would just need to sign another free agent. 2. Can the Twins afford to give up on Alex Kirilloff? Kirilloff is literally hurt more than Buxton, came across awfully irresponsible and selfish last year, and he's never posted a season with more than 0.6 fWAR. I don't know where this concept of Kirilloff "potential" originates. He'll be on a MiLB contract for 2025. 3. Where does Edouard Julien go? AAA until he proves he's taken a major step forward unless the Twins field some calls from a team that's really high on Julien over the offseason. 4. Who backs up Carlos Correa? Despite the criticism of him being hobbled up, Correa was one of the more durable players in baseball from 2020-2023 ranking 73rd in all MLB. The most likely bet based on how the Twins shuffled things this year is Brooks Lee, even though it shouldn't be. 5. Do the Twins trust Royce at 3B? No. They answered that loud and clear while taking a big dump on the young face of the franchise. But for the OAA metric supporters around here, Royce's defense was above average there. 6. Can the Twins find a RHB platoon bat for LF? Sure. The Twins love platoon only, minimal value guys. The rest of the league doesn't value them much so the Twins should be able to pick up dumpster dive who is slightly above average against lefties. 7. Can the Twins find a legit starting CF to backup Buxton? Yes, but it's going to cost them a fair bit of prospect capital. 8. Is Wallner ready to put it together? Yeah, he already did. Wallner had a terrible April and first half of May. Having a bad month or two is normal. The fact Wallner raked again when he came back is all anybody should have needed to see. The Twins could have called Wallner's number a month and a half earlier than they did, but the team let him hang out in AAA because Larnach and Miranda were hitting, and for whatever reason I cannot comprehend, they still wanted to see Alex Kirilloff play more. 9. Will one of Lopez, Ryan or Ober be moved? No. I don't think Falvey has the guts. 10. What did the Twins learn about building a relief core? That you can and will get unlucky sometimes.

Actually, if you look at Kepler since Baldelli took over as the manager, it's clear the Twins were platooning him more and more. His ratio of PA per game vs. lefties and righties started shifting. Since Kepler was a veteran, he seems to have gotten some leeway.

The point is a 5% BB rate and a 40% K rate against mostly low minors pitchers doesn't work, and it's not an improvement over his 10.7% BB vs. 30.4% K rate at AA this year. Honestly, I'd be concerned if Rosario wasn't doing damage in the AFL since the competition level is certainly lower than AA where he spent almost his entire season. Plate discipline vs. more contact is pretty much potAto, poTaTo, but I'd still lean towards calling it a plate discipline issue. It's the same issue Matt Wallner had in A+ ball with a 9.5% BB, and 33.3% K rate when he was essentially put on notice that he had no future in the game without learning to take walks despite Wallner "doing damage." Meanwhile a "make more contact" issue is Emmanuel Rodriguez with his high K rate but even more absurd walk rate.

Yep. The "Twins way" isn't the only or even possibly the best way. In fact, I think teams should construct lineups based on the name on the jersey (best players) rather than the spreadsheet which tells them which number hits from which side of the plate. Ramirez (SHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 121 Kwan (LHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 125 J Naylor (LHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 124 Fry (RHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 94 Gimenez (LHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 90 B Naylor (LHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 78 Example. Despite being a righty, Jose Miranda has hit RHP much better than he's hit LHP over the years, but in 2024, despite raking against righties (wRC+ 142), and struggling against lefties (wRC+ 60), Baldelli continued to standard platoon Miranda. Jose Miranda (RHB vs. RHP) wRC+ 113, career Jose Miranda (RHB vs. LHP) wRC+ 91, career

Kala'i Rosario is an interesting prospect in that there's some stuff to like, but the plate discipline projects as unplayable. I'm not sure what the Twins are looking for in Rosario in the AFL as I suspect he'll return to AA next year, but an 8 K to 1 BB ratio is surely not it.

I think it results in players who never get comfortable in the field. Instead of plays being reflexive, every play requires thought. Word is the Twins are going to have Acuna practice soccer and tennis more so he'll be better able to kick baseballs or at least bat them down with his glove... that is when he's not practicing his throws to always miss a 10 foot wide target setup over 1B. Also, they've ordered him to gain weight to increase his HR power and sloooooww down that run speed so he doesn't embarrass the rest of the team.

Keirsey's defensive metrics do not paint him as a potential plus center fielder. At best, he might be able to hold his own. I really wish Keirsey would have gotten some more playing time and plate appearances at the end of the season so we could get better data on his true sprint speed. Eyeball scouting returns some serious bias.

No, it represented me not wanting to put relievers into the mix, and when I went to 40IP on my Fangraphs.com sort, I had dozens of relievers showing up. If Dobnak wasn't pitching well enough, the Twins wouldn't have added him to the 40 man and called him up.

I wasn't concerned with the Guardians' rotation before the season began or for the last couple years, actually. I just wasn't impressed with what I'd seen in terms of their results. They were always projected to suddenly get better, but it felt like the kind of expectations Twins fans and analysts had for Fernando Romero a few years ago. Often those mystical "they're going to be good because they just have to be, right!?" projections don't turn out. Cleveland has a dominant bullpen, a very solid core in their young, cost controlled position players, and more positional help close by with an outfielder in Chase DeLauter finishing the year at AAA. Oh, and they have a young shortstop who... now get this... doesn't boot balls around the infield and chuck throws into the stands?! What is this blasphemy? Baldelli and Falvey are surely throwing staplers at walls for the Guardians having the audacity to teach fielding techniques! How dare they? That's cheating! The Guardians probably have somewhere in the ballpark of $30-50MM of payroll room for next year. They'll be able to shore up some holes with that if they choose, but they're such a cheaply run franchise it's hard to say what they'll do. In any case, the Guardians probably project to be competitive with the Twins. I expect them to be behind Detroit and Kansas City.

In my offseason plan last year, I wanted the Twins to trade for Jarren Duran (Wilyer Abreu was a secondary thought). I didn't think Duran would turn into what he did, but I think there was a lot better fit the Twins' assets (Kepler, Polanco) to get Abreu or Jarren Duran last offseason. I still think the Twins might be able to get some movement on a deal by including Larnach to offset the loss of Abreu. The Twins are going to have to clear payroll to pick up O'Neill. Spotrac projects 3yrs $48MM for him. Feels super steep to me. I think he'll go for more like 1-2yrs and $15-25MM? JJ Bleday, Daulton Varsho, Brenton Doyle would be potentially better targets. Perhaps Trevor Larnach could be traded as part of those deals to offset the depth loss.

Dobnak pitched pretty well in AAA relative to his peers. Of the 130 pitchers with at least 60 innings, Dobnak ranked as follows: ERA Top 25 - 3.78 Dobnak - 4.25 (#42/130) Median - 4.59 FIP Top 25 - 4.14 Dobnak - 4.54 (#54/130) Median - 4.74 There's a reason Dobnak got an opportunity; it was because he earned it with results. There's also a reason it took so long to get that opportunity; it was because the front office thought it was probably smoke and mirrors, and it was.

I think Winder and Jackson are both better than anything you can expect from Dobnak without a major change to Dobnak's arsenal.