bean5302

No way. Rooker was on a totally different level, and it's just baffling why teams didn't see it. Rooker didn't have glaring weaknesses against certain pitch types. He he great exit velocities, and consistently destroyed AAA pitching. Every place Rooker landed, his AAA stat line was always like wRC+ 140 or higher. He also started off in AA in his first full season after being drafted, finding his way to MLB in 2020 after being drafted in 2017. Take a guy who rapidly moves up, rakes at every level, crushes baseballs in his first exposure to MLB and never even give him 300 PA. Rooker's 2021 wasn't even bad! He was .219/.317/.425 OPS .742 wRC+ 106 in 183 PA after being called up in July after receiving a handful of sporadic playing time in April that year. Severino maxed out at league average in 2 seasons of AAA, and it took him 5 years to get to AA.

I think the real question is whether or not he could get away with not throwing strikes while AA and lower levels like Drew Strotman. Strotman could throw strikes, but if he did, things took a nasty turn. In AAA, Lewis is probably going to have to throw strikes based on the scouting reports. If he throws strikes, will his pitches be put in the seats or into gloves? Lewis struck out 30.9% of hitters in the 2nd half at AA, but the BB rate didn't really drop as it stayed at 11.3%.

I think Winder has the stuff to be very good, but that shoulder has been a huge problem. It's tough looking at his performances in isolation and evaluating him as his shoulder cost him quite a bit of velo, and probably some command. Severino never panned out defensively, and sure, you can look at the home runs in 2023 to get all excited, but his bat was AAA average. It was average again this year, but with long months of poor production mixed with like a single scorching month of performance. Severino is just a talent issue.

From Boston Red Sox fans, I'd wager, haha. Red Sox ownership hasn't been spending big for a few years and seemingly wanted to avoid wallet explosions. Big investments they've made like Trevor Story wound up being a mess as well. I'd be pretty surprised to see the Red Sox bring in Juan Soto when they already have quality, cheap and team controlled outfielders with other, bigger needs.

"The frame" "The velo" I wonder how many potential HoF players get overlooked or pigeonholed by MLB scouts and front office's treating baseball players as if they were NFL players? There is no correlation between pitcher size and durability. In regard to Lewis, he's pretty hard to project right now. Very good K rate for AA, but came with a ton of walks as well. As he gets a few starts in at AAA, it should become more apparent whether or not his stuff will potentially play since AAA hitters are generally a lot more polished. I sure wish there were better pitching metrics available so he could be compared better against his competition level at a glance.

There are two risks to the scenario. One is performance, but the other is injury. Starter, bullpen, starter has been done before. I think the most successful story of that all time is John Smoltz, but Smoltz was a dominant starter who moved the 'pen because of injury recovery. Jax's velocity is going to drop in the bullpen, probably by about 2mph. His pitches will not be nearly as effective when that happens. It's also fair to wonder whether last year was Jax's career year. As his velo drops, does he become a 3.00 ERA or 3.50 ERA guy or a 4.50 ERA guy is the question from a performance standpoint. Is his preparation still in order for being a rotation guy? How will his 30 year old body react to a workload he's never seen before? Keep in mind, Jax has never pitched more than 120 innings in a year, even back when he was a starter. There is value to both the Twins and Jax if he can succeed. Some of the questions might be answered with the Twins' other offseason moves like trading a starter or Duran.

That's not trading low. Pablo Lopez is the most desirable and rare commodity in all of baseball. A front end starter. 2 extra years of team friendly AAV top of the rotation arm is absolute gold. You might personally love Moreno, and I do think he's very solid, but he's not a superstar like J.T. Realmuto was at this point. Moreno isn't hurt to the best of my knowledge. If you want an ace for multiple years on a team friendly contract (and the Diamondbacks really, really do), you have to pay.

He's your favorite pitcher, let me fix that for you, lol.

The Twins don't need him to play 7-8 more years, he's only under contract for 4 years, and his full NTC drops after 2 years when it goes to a 5 team trade list.

Buxton's knee will never be right, and that's been made clear. He went on the IL last year for the knee in May, and it's a chronic inflammation situation. He's got a buildup of scar tissue in there which will continue coming back, but with diligence, Buxton is hoping he can minimize the impact of the knee. “It's just trying to get in front of those types of problems out there -- not necessarily problems, just stuff I've got to manage throughout the rest of my career, you know?” Buxton said. https://www.mlb.com/news/byron-buxton-discusses-management-of-knee-pain

In general, trading a cheap, quality, starting pitcher with 3 years of team control left just does not happen. The Rays never follow that format. They generally don't trade their pitchers until 1.0-1.5 years of control left... maybe 2 if they get a massive overpay. Ober is a solid pitcher, but his xFIP has been remarkably stable over his career. He's probably about a 3.85-4.10 ERA kinda guy. He'll also be 29 next year, and has a fairly significant injury history despite his great durability in 2024. He's not in the same league as most of the guys mentioned in the article, but Ober would be coveted by just about any team in MLB as a quality 5+ game playoff series starter. He's more than just a durable innings eater like Gibson, for example. I'm not sure what teams would jump at Ober and also offer the Twins a solid return for 2025 since Ober's trade value is middle of the road as a quality 2.5 WAR type of guy.

They've made some pretty aggressive moves in the front office and they've hired a firm to handle the sale. Signs point to the Pohlad's being very serious about selling the team.

Varland gives up a ton of loud contact out of the 'pen or in the rotation, and his pitches don't move very well relative to his peers. Not all starters will automatically find success out of the bullpen just because of a minor velo bump. In Varland's case from 96 starter to 98 reliever may help him be serviceable out of the bullpen, but to expect him to go out there and be a weapon out of the 'pen seems optimistic. I'd like Varland to be able to put up respectable numbers. Like a 3.65-3.85 ERA or something which I would consider a win.

Non-viable. 26 man roster.

Corner OF positions are worth 10 runs less than center field (1.0 WAR as a baseline). So a a utility player who can cover CF and be worth 1.0 WAR would be worth 0.0 WAR if you turned them into a corner only player. Gonzalez has similar power to Rosario, historically speaking, and from a scouting perspective. Both have been in that .170 ISO land of moderate pop (like Rosario has been in the AFL), but Rosario's K rate projects very poorly considering his lack of true plus power. Add in the fact Rosario is not a good runner, and Gonzalez has more ceiling and more floor.

Lawlar isn't going anywhere in exchange for relief pitchers, period. He's ranked in the top 10 prospects in all of MLB, and is Arizona's top prospect in a system with very little elite talent. Lawlar is already burning options with just 100 PA at AAA thanks in part to a torn ligament that required surgery on his throwing thumb in Spring Training and a pulled hammy almost as soon as he came back. Apart from that, I'd probably balk at the price tag he's going to command with that 30% K profile. Too much Javy Baez risk for my taste.

I'd have no interest in trading Lopez for "prospects." Lopez is a known quantity on on a team friendly contract, and prospects often struggle. Berrios' 8.02 ERA first 14 games in MLB in 2016 should be a stark reminder of that fact. If going the trade for prospects direction, the Twins should be desperate to get out from under Correa's contract as well to start a rebuild which means any player with less than 3yrs of team control should be shopped hard. If the rebuild approach is the direction they take, that's up to them. I think it'd be short-sighted, but it's their team. A player like Sasaki could be a huge signing to replace Lopez in a scenario as described above, but come on. You think Sasaki is coming to a franchise that's casting off their best players with the team up for sale with a short term front office in disarray? Even if the Twins were top bidders, there's no way they're a top destination. A lot has been talked about in regard to Sasaki's preference for a lower pressure media market. Sure, Minneapolis is fine for that, but so are 20 other teams all bidding for him, and most of them aren't casting off their best players, cutting salary and up for sale.

I'd be pretty surprised if the Twins stretched him out that fast. I'd suspect they'd follow something closer to the Raya plan where the 5.0 inning, 80 pitch starts don't happen until July, keeping in mind Raya threw 97.2 innings last year. Getting Prielipp to 100 innings would be huge as he'd probably be basically good for what is a pretty typical starter workload these days. If Prielipp breaks down throughout the season, switching to the 'pen is a viable solution.

It's strange to me how much of other sports scouting profiles and assumptions have found their way into baseball. Add size or mass for power? Hank Aaron was 6'0 and 180lbs. Byron Buxton has a huge power at 6'2 and 190lbs. Jackson Merrill blasted 24HR last year playing home games at Petco at 6'3 195lbs. Bobby Witt, Jr. is 6'1 and 200lbs. Guys don't need to be 6'4 and 300lbs with bodies like offensive linemen to hit the ball hard. The heavier the player gets, the harder it is to be fast. The more weight a player adds, the more force they need to exert on their body to accelerate the bat. The more mass they add, the more pressure they put on their joints and skeletal system leading to injury and degenerative conditions. Baseball is not the NFL where mass is needed to avoid being the 8-ball shooting into the side pocket. All that aside, Gonzalez didn't truly improve as much as you'd hope over last year. I'd sure hope he's younger than the average age of his level because guys aren't even prospects anymore if they're at average age. Even at 2.2yrs younger than average, Gonzalez is no longer young for a top prospect considering age/time in pro ball. He should have been sent to the AFL to baby step him towards AA next year. AA next year is where I agree with others in the sentiment it'll be a make or break year for him. I think it's still early to have a "likely outcome" for a 20 year prospect playing in A+ ball.

wRC+ takes speed into consideration, and Castro is not universally good defender. Career (positive numbers bolded): 2B 1150 innings, DRS = -9, UZR/150 = -4.5, OAA = +4 3B 458 innings, DRS = +1, UZR/150 = +5.3, OAA = +2 SS 1187 innings, DRS = -21, UZR/150 = -6.4, OAA = -3 LF 815 innings, DRS = -2, UZR/150 = -5.0, OAA = -1 CF 593 innings, DRS = -6, UZR/150 = -12.1, OAA = -4 RF 332 innings, DRS = +2, UZR/150 = +6.6, OAA = -1 Castro is probably a plus fielder at 3B. I'd wager he's neutral at 2B, and below average to bad at all other positions. I like Castro, but his value as a player in isolation is being overinflated, IMHO. He's a serviceable fielder, he's an above average hitter overall, but he can't hit lefties very well so his switch hitting isn't all that valuable.

All joking aside, Jhoan Duran is probably a low/mid likelihood of being traded. BaseballTradeValues expects Duran to be worth about 2.1 WAR per season over the next 3 years with a salary of like $4MM +$6MM + $8.5MM (18.5MM total). Their AFV 49.6 - Salary 18.5 = $31.0MM in surplus value. Some MLB.com Catcher Prospects a22 Kyle Teel = 40.4 (3rd ranked catcher prospect, AAA, Red Sox) 123 PA in AAA - Defensive stud, long track record of performance at the plate. Not quite ready, but mid season? a19 Samuel Basallo = 63.3 (1st ranked catcher prospect, AAA, Orioles) 86 PA in AAA - Defensively not ready, showing very high potential at the plate... he was a19 in AAA where he struggled a bit at the plate in a SSS, but wRC+ 134 in 446 PA at AA. He's going to be a beast. a22 Jeferson Quero = 28.7 as of 7/25/24 (5th ranked catcher prospect, AAA, Brewers) 1 PA in AAA - Won Rawlings MiLB Gold Glove for catcher defense and held his own in AA wRC+ 107. Probably not ready yet, but could be ready mid season. The Twins might be able to get Quero for Duran? Jhoan Duran would easily be one of the most sought after relievers in baseball, and while TD thinks Griffin Jax would be more desirable, I doubt MLB franchises are unanimous in that assumption. With Duran being a major component to Twins marketing, his super elite velocity and very high value as a reliever, parting with him wouldn't be great. It also isn't going to save much money. A $4MM salary doesn't save $3.7MM because you have the pay the next roster guy backfilling at least $700k. It only saves $3MM. There probably isn't a lot of pressure for the Twins to move such an important piece for $3MM in savings.

If that's not enough, maybe we can dangle Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober as sweeteners along with Royce Lewis as a toss in?

Castro with the Twins Batting Left vs. RHP: .251/.334/.395 OPS .729 ISO .144 wRC+ 108, 8.1% BB, 23.9%K Batting Right vs. LHP: .240/.302/.356 OPS .659 ISO .116 wRC+ 87, 6.8% BB, 23.3% K vs. say Jose Miranda's career Batting Right vs. RHP: .275/.331/.418 OPS .748, ISO .143 wRC+ 113, 5.7% BB, 16.5% K Batting Right vs. LHP: .247/.277/.407 OPS .683, ISO .159 wRC+ 91, 3.9% BB, 18.3% K Miranda's better against RHP and LHP with a similar split between right and left despite being a right handed batter. Switch hitting is only worth something if the hitter is good at hitting from both sides of the plate, and Castro is not.

I honestly don't know what the Twins are going to do. They need to shed salary to keep Castro, but the super utility player could fill a roster hole wherever the Twins need him, though Castro can't catch, is a poor center fielder, and obviously playing him at 1B isn't a good value. The Twins have holes at CF, 2B or 3B (depending on how they treat Royce Lewis) right now from my perspective, though needs could change as the Twins reorganize the roster.

Castro is a starting caliber player who is going to be playing every day, but he can only play one position at a time. There is a "best" position for him, and everywhere the Twins place him other than the best position reduces Castro's contributions. There's a questionable narrative that Castro's positional flexibility is definitively valuable, but it's not. The value Castro adds is conditional on: A) The Twins having depth at the position Castro is vacating B) The Twins not having depth at the position Castro is moving to i.e. Willi Castro is playing (3.0 WAR 2B). Trevor Larnach (2.0 WAR LF) gets hurt, and the Twins pick Willi Castro (3.0 WAR LF) over Austin Martin (1.0 WAR LF). Brooks Lee becomes (1.0 WAR 2B). The Twins lose 1.0 WAR here vs. just leaving Castro at 2B and backfilling Larnach with Martin. Castro is a valuable 3 WAR player, depending on where you play him, but he's not going to lead the team in production or anything like that.