bean5302

Pierzynski -> Liriano -> Escobar -> Duran, who could yet be traded for more stuff. The trade trees can go on forever, haha.

I get exactly where you're headed with the concern. The Twins' depth at position player is ugly right now.

They don't have to buy him or take on the risk of buying him. They can trade him now; today. Unless you're suggesting the Twins can sign Ryan to a long term deal to an amount so far under market value that Ryan's trade value will increase? I suppose it's possible, but it's a pretty high bar to clear. Right now, BaseballTradeValues has Joe Ryan at +53.5 surplus trade value. An AFV of 72.5, which is a 3 WAR season expectation. Salary is projected at $19MM over the next 3 years, so probably like $4MM, $6MM, $9MM, but of course, whatever team trades for him also still have a team option for 1 year and $22MM-ish coming as a QO or a Comp A pick which will be the expected return if he turns it down. Okay, so what would the market like to see as a contract with Ryan in terms of length? 5yrs? More than that I think it would be viewed as a negative. So 5 years. How much does it cost to buy Ryan out of 2 free agency year? Ignoring the copy/paste Bailey Ober article content for poor comps, I'll take a look at Spotrac which figures Joe Ryan is worth 5yrs $91MM today in free agency. Probably fair-ish. 5yrs $66MM probably gets it done, IMHO. The Twins pay a little extra through arb years for Ryan to accept losing out on ever getting a big free agent contract. $5MM, $10MM, $15MM, $18MM, $18MM. Ryan will be entering his age 34 season. Value wise, surplus is probably essentially the same or maybe a little lower after the extension than it is right now. I'd expect AFV to be like 100-125 over that 5 year period so his surplus would be like +34ish to +59ish. Doesn't really move the needle, but it adds risk to the Twins if Ryan's shoulder blows out or something. It's unlikely Joe Ryan or any other established, quality, arb eligible player who will hit free agency in their 30s is going to sell their free agent years at a big special discount just to help the team increase trade value.

I'm okay with Martin and/or Helman as "utility guys" who play once a week while Lee and Julien prove their mettle in AAA. Unfortunately, Baldelli will deploy/platoon any RHB as regular starters whenever the opponent stands a lefty up in the bullpen or a left starter is on the mound.

Compare any of the other big 3 sports to MLB in terms of turnover when it comes to teams making or advancing in the playoffs. I've done this in the past, and none of the sports were as competitive as baseball, especially considering the playoffs hadn't been expanded as far as they are now. It does feel like the Dodgers are breaking the game a bit at this point, but otherwise, plenty of turnover still.

Brooks Lee didn't struggle against breaking pitches or off speed stuff. Brooks Lee couldn't hit fastballs, and I mean really couldn't hit fastballs with a -5 runs vs. average MLB hitters against 4 seamers and even -3 runs against sinkers in those limited plate appearances between injuries. That's a huge problem as pitchers are going to eat him up if Lee can't improve his swing speed and catch up to MLB velocities. It really does seem like a swing speed/decision timing issue as Lee enjoyed solid performance against the slower traveling offspeeds like changeups and curves. With a mediocre power tool and no athleticism (slow runner, weak arm, slow swing), Lee has plenty of work to do, and that's why I'd really like to see him get plenty of action at AAA before coming back up again unless it really looks like it was just fallout from his back and shoulder issues. Polish can take you a long ways in the minors, and I'm concerned that's what carried Brooks Lee until his physical tools were exposed at the MLB level. I think a lot of people, including me, sometimes overlook just how insanely hard it is to be successful at the MLB level. Royce Lewis needs some health working his way for a change. The back to back ACLs, plus the severe quad strain and then the hip adductor destroyed his explosiveness, and that lower body is critical to swing speed and power. Considering how Lewis has talked, rehabbed and invested in his physical fitness, I'm hoping his lower body can rebound. He's shown he can be an elite hitter, crushing even well placed pitches, regardless of the pitch type. I'm no longer expecting Lewis will be healthy, but I'm still hoping for it. When it comes to Julien, he's going to need to back off the plate a little so he can get at those pitches further inside, IMHO. The sacrifice is going to be his ability to effectively hit stuff outside, but he needs to change it up and adjust or he's cooked.

Yeah, baseball owners pushed hard to keep Cuban out over the past 15 years, but the landscape of baseball has changed a lot. If the Ishbia's start making some progress on their attempt, part of me now wonders if Cuban would come back around since he's (was at least) a huge baseball fan. Possibly unfortunate that he's pursued the Cubs previously so Cuban might be more in on the White Sox. I don't like the idea of a competent owner being in charge of the south siders.

When it comes to Eloy Jimenez, I didn't see the improved batted ball metrics on Fangraphs, anyway. 15.3% Line Drive (lowest/worst of his career) 56.1% Ground Ball (highest/worst of his career) 28.6% Fly Ball (lowest/worst of his career) 13.7% Pop Up (2nd highest/worst of his career) 7.8% Barrel (worst of his career) Jimenez is a ground ball machine... which would be a real asset if he were a pitcher. He needs to rework his swing pretty badly to get the ball up a little more to generate line drives and fly balls with his 60 grade power. He's looking too much like Tim Anderson's decline at the plate for me to sign him to an MLB contract, but I agree with other people that I'd take Jimenez on a MiLB contract as I think he's better insurance than Yunior Severino, anyway.

I think I'd play Severino wherever there's an injury replacement need. He's MiLB roster filler. Eeles and McCusker are pretty interesting guys since they've more than held their own out of Indy ball.

Seems like he beat estimates by a tick. Should be interesting to see how he does in Philadelphia. If Kep can find a way to regain a step, he should be pretty good for them, and maybe secure himself a decent 2-3 year contract to end things out.

Tough to count on Julien, but even Julien hit better than Brooks Lee. At least one of the two should start the season in St. Paul, but neither is needed on the 26 man if the Twins keep Castro. I'd like to see Lee and Julien hit well for 200+ PA at AAA before calling their names. Of course, having a young player be healthy for 200 PA for the Twins is a near miracle in and of itself these days...

I don't think I reacted with a "disagree" on your post, but I can understand why people would. Taking a quick peek at BTV... Alcantara = +47 Luzardo = +22 Total = +69 Keaschall = +23 Festa = +20 Julien = +17 Matthews = +16 Miranda = +16 Gonzalez = +7 Raya = +4 Total = +103 Your opinion on virtually every single one of those Twins players comes across pessimistic in terms of expected performance or perceived value for that performance. Your opinion of Alcantara and Luzardo comes across as optimistic and ignores the health risks or likelihood they'll be available in a playoff scenario at all. Alcantara and Luzardo both had terrible seasons in their last season on the mound (probably injury related, but how sure are we really?), and I expect Luzardo may need TJ. Combined, the two pitchers will make $23MM next year. I also don't like a 6 man rotation at all. I don't see any benefit to health, and you're replacing starts from your best 5 pitchers with a back end arm who might not even be MLB caliber.

Fangraphs had Keaschall as a borderline top 100 prospect in May, when Keaschall was absolutely destroying A+. Keaschall's performance dipped quite a bit in AA as his power dropped, but he was still very good. Unfortunately, the TJ + poor fielding grades + going from elite production to very good production likely hit his stock a bit. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-top-100-prospects-update/

The only reason to ever extend a player or sign them as a free agent is because you can't replace the production from developing prospects. Joe Ryan's a good pitcher, but expectations of him taking things to the next level at age 29+ seem overly optimistic. With a career 3.92 ERA and 3.85 FIP, he's a 3 WAR kinda guy. Does a 3 WAR pitcher seem out of the realm of reason for Matthews, Festa, Raya, Soto or another prospect to be able to replicate 3 seasons from now?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/twins-have-listened-to-trade-offers-on-pablo-lopez.html Yeah, and there was a different feel to this than the Correa report. Lopez easily provides the Twins the most options in terms of payroll issues and potential return back. There would be a dozen teams bidding for him based on analyst valuations.

As @Brock Beauchamp mentioned, the Cubs just bailed on a Luzardo deal due to medicals. Given Luzardo's "stress reaction" (aka microfractures in his vertebrae), along with the UCL strain from last year, and I'd be awfully concerned about him. 2019 - (March) Shoulder strain, missed 2 months 2019 - (July) Lat strain, missed a month 2021 - Punched a desk playing a video game and broke his pinky, missed 2 months 2022 - Left forearm strain, missed 3 months 2024 - (April) Left elbow "tightness" missed 1 month. 2024 - (June) Back stress reaction (microfractures in vertebrea) missed remaining 3 months But also... why would the Twins make this deal? The organization is already $10MM overbudget, adding another $6MM for Luzardo seems unrealistic. Also, the team couldn't score runs last year, not really starting pitching. If the Twins are looking to add high end rotation arms to protect from depth issues, Luzardo has had only 1 full, healthy season in the last 6 years. I could see this move if the Twins were going to clear space by moving Lopez, but other than that, I don't see it.

Correct. He was in AAA because he earned his promotion to AAA in 560 AA plate appearances that season. It's not like he had an Emma season with 150 PA at AA, a bunch of warning flags, and then a promotion to AAA because the clock was ticking. Chourio had nothing left to prove below AAA. Also, top position player prospects generally don't play full seasons at AAA, and Chourio was a 19 year old with little left to prove in the minors which is why Chourio opened 2024 on the MLB roster as a starting outfielder.

The Twins are selling. They're not going to commit new owners to long term contracts. Just for the record, Chourio was in AAA before he got extended, was a legitimate CF, and had a better track record with better tools than Rodriguez or Jenkins.

I'd want a heck of a lot better than a non-prospect like Canario. Maybe somebody like Pablo Aliendo.

2 years ago? Sure. Today, absolutely not. No team is risking a Phantom IL trip where an obvious grievance could be filed, especially not for a rule 5 pick.

I think that's a pretty extreme take. I don't think Buxton is a negative, but I certainly wouldn't have given him that 7 year deal because I don't think any team in baseball would have given Buxton more than 3 years in free agency. Hunter was not as good as Buxton when they were both healthy and on the field. It's just Buxton is a half a year player.

Agreed, they're potentially great owners, just that people shouldn't expect them to be champions of the masses. The community benefactor owners have existed in the past, like Walter A. Haas, Jr. was for the Athletics in the 80s and 90s, but I'm not sure they exist now?

I have concerns about SWR. A sample size of 7 is not relevant IMHO. The assumption is he was gassed at 115 innings at age 23 in his 7th professional season. His pitches weren't great overall, but there were flashes of his curve and changeup moving in ways that would allow them to be good weapons. It seemed like hitters adjusted quickly to his repertoire as scouting reports got out. While SWR's was initially producing good results with a 92mph velocity, he seemed to improve as the velo ticked to 94 before falling off. Unfortunately, that 92mph velocity effort which reappeared towards the end of the year got hammered. So is SWR viable with a 92mph average heater or will he have to maintain the short peak he had in the middle of the year? Why wasn't his conditioning up to the task, and why would it be expected to improve going forward?

You mean like $1 hot dogs, and $5 cans of beer the Twins had last year? Or being able to bring in free food and water? Unlike the Twins, the Suns don't allow outside food, but you can bring in 1 bottle of sealed water (like the Twins allow). The price list there is what you call "loss leaders" in marketing and business terms. Levy Restaurants & Concessions runs the concessions for the Suns, and I the Suns probably lose money on each of those items after the cost of items and Levy's fees/cuts. The idea is to generate upsells and interest in the team. Increasing the prestige and interest in attending the Suns games is step 1 for the Ishbia's. Once season ticket holder packages are filled and there's a waiting list, prices will start increasing. The Suns were one of the most pathetically attended games in the NBA for a couple years (full seasons not impacted by COVID) prior to the Ishbia's purchasing them. The Ishbia's understand marketing and revenue generation. If they buy the Twins, I suspect the focus will be on public engagement and making the Twins a prestigious event to attend. They'll keep prices low, get those season tickets sold out, then prices will skyrocket, game day revenues and profits will soar and the team's value will increase. They're not doing this for the poor, downtrodden masses. They are not your friends. They're business owners looking for a return on investment.

Personally, I'm sick and tired of 1 year re-tread rentals. The Twins need a guy who can be an every day center fielder for the foreseeable future. The team should trade for that player.