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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I think what @Vanimal46 is getting at is PECOTA is consistently wildly inaccurate. Their model is projecting 86 wins as enough to win a division when 86 wins hasn't worked in 16 years, and it's even very rare less than 90 wins gets it done. Their model is forecasting extreme outliers to start with. FGDC + 45 wins baseline at least projects the Twins as a 90 win team for the lead in the division. That provides a some modeling credibility where PECOTA has little to none.
  2. bean5302
    Larnach getting moved pushes Castro into LF. Castro gets moved pushes Brooks Lee into the IF vs. utility. Probably how it goes. The question is how much do the Twins lose by making those swaps. Larnach has never posted a 2 WAR season. Castro is a 2-3 WAR player, depending on where he plays. The drop off from losing them isn't probably critical.
  3. bean5302
    86 wins hasn't been enough to win a division since the 2008 Dodgers won the NL West with 84 wins. 86 wins has a 0.00% chance of being enough to win an MLB division over the past 16 years. I think the projection systems are light on things right now. Plus, there's a lot out there on the market right now.
  4. bean5302
    Wins vs. Losses are tough for me because there's a team component. We all saw how the Twins' lineup was totally inept for large portions of the season. The starter would leave the game after the 5th inning with the score 2-2 or 3-2 and the bullpen would then be tasked with pitching 4.0 scoreless innings because you know the Twins weren't scoring another run. That type of scenario is going to result in a ton of losses, but rarely a "win." The Twins were 12th in MLB in WPA through the All Star break, but 26th after that point. A lot of that had to do with the Twins' hitters not showing up.
  5. bean5302
    I don't really care too much about having a mediocre lefty in the bullpen. I'll take Duran or Jax vs. a LHB before I'd take a mediocre lefty vs. a LHB. Having lefties in the bullpen for LOOGY type matchups just isn't as valuable as it used to be. Sands, Alcala and others are perfectly serviceable vs. LHBs, but there are a couple guys out there who've struggled (Tonkin).
  6. bean5302
    I'd be happy shipping out SWR, Paddack and Larnach. Gotta have some payroll relief coming back (Paddack). It's a bit risky, though as it means a hit to the depth for the outfield, which is already thin.
  7. bean5302
    I think it's important to consider how good you need to be to win RoY, and let's be honest, if you're factoring into the league MVP/Cy Young, you're going to be winning RoY. WAR - AL, NL 2024 - 3.1, 5.9 2023 - 6.2, 5.4 2022 - 6.2, 5.2 2021 - 3.9, 4.1 2019 - 3.7, 5.5 Tons and tons of hype around Walker Jenkins. I'm just not sold until I see the power or get the scouting reports back on excellent CF play. I do think Jenkins has the potential to win in a down year, but he's going to have to play to his ceiling to do it. That said, I'd be surprised for him to get more than a cup of coffee at the MLB level this year. He's got a lot of missed time an opportunity to make up for in the minors this year. I'll be watching him closely in Spring Training this year. Emma also missed a ton of time and has been constantly hurt. I think he's got the highest likelihood to make the team opening day due to the fact this is his 2nd option year. If he's able to duplicate the Edouard Julien effort in 2023, Emma could be a RoY candidate. He's going to do a lot better than his 50% K rate last year in ST. I'd be surprised at Keaschall playing much at the MLB level this year. Not sure what the Twins' philosophy will be on his development, but I think they'll likely keep him in the outfield or 2nd base for the start of the season to protect his UCL.
  8. bean5302
    Sounds like the Padres are probably pursuing Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober as the centerpiece. Both either is worth well more than Cease on a standalone basis, IMHO. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/dylan-cease-discusses-trade-rumors.html
  9. bean5302
    I'm not the one complaining about it. You've missed the mark on my posts again.
  10. bean5302
    The best sources on the information show it. If you have a more reputable source than Forbes/Statista, please provide it. The blind fan rage and jealousy gets so old for me.
  11. bean5302
    It can be deceptive, but if it was a stuff guy, I'd be expecting to see rates more in the 14+ K/9 range. Borquez is walking too many compared to his K rate for the level he's at. On the bright side, he's not giving up a ton of hits and the BABIP against is low which might just mean he's inducing mostly poor contact.
  12. bean5302
    I seem to recall a similar result to a couple years ago where the bullpen was very good, but short start after short start after short start towards the end of the year ran a ragged, overworked bullpen out there day after day towards the end. The bullpen was not the problem last year. The Twins were tied for 5th best in MLB in Blown saves. Way too many scenarios where the bullpen had to go out there and pitch 4 scoreless innings to keep it close. It's totally unreasonable to expect the bullpen not to give up at least 1 run per game when you're only getting 4-6 inning starts.
  13. bean5302
    Oh, here I was thinking you were complaining the Twins didn't spend enough, and because the Twins didn't spend enough, that hamstrung Falvey to a lowly $20MM of free cash. The Twins have lost money since 2019. They were massively in the red in 2020, barely scraped by in 2021, massively in the red again in 2022, scraped by in 2023, and I don't know the estimated end results in 2024. Rawr!!!!!
  14. bean5302
    I think 2022 definitely counts. Free Agency started at the beginning of The lockout didn't start until December while free agency began more than a month earlier. Tons of players were signed before the lockout.
  15. bean5302
    Yes, it 100% is Falvey's fault considering the Twins have run a $120-150MM payroll for years and years now. Why does Falvey only have $20MM to spend at a payroll higher than 3 of the other 4 teams in the division?
  16. bean5302
    ehhhhhhhhhhhh... I think you're underselling what Isbel accomplished and why he got his opportunity. Isbel earned it, and he earned it at age 24 while still being a legit prospect with a way better track record. In regard to how valuable Isbel is, OAA grades him as solid in CF due to what are essentially the very best outfielder instincts in baseball, DRS says he's good, UZR says he's a bit above average. His baserunning is also stellar. Isbel a24 AAA .269/.357/.444 wRC+ 116 (105 games before promotion to MLB) vs. Keirsey a24 A+ .199/.297/.433 wRC+ 96 I'm fine with Keirsey if he can be Austin Martin (or even a bit better than last year's Isbel) at the plate, but with good defensive instincts as a 4th outfielder. I just think it's a stretch to project him higher than 0.5-1.0 WAR.
  17. bean5302
    There are multiple paths to viability in MLB, and complicating this is pre-CBA TV deals like the ones the Dodgers made. At the time the Dodgers made this deal, it was designed to circumvent CBA revenue sharing and MLB rules. MLB let it slide despite a lot of teams being pretty angry about it. This is unlike the NHL who absolutely dropped the hammer of destruction when the Minnesota Wild decided to circumvent salary cap rules signing Parise and Suter many years ago. MLB dramatically increased revenue sharing in the last CBA, and it angered teams like the Yankees and Dodgers who work hard putting competitive teams together while teams like the Tampa Bay Rays intentionally live off the welfare of the revenue sharing model. This also resulted in owners agreeing to have a guarantee of a certain portion of revenue sharing being spent on team payroll (directly related to the Athletics payroll moves this year). Now, what changes can MLB make when the MLBPA is the biggest obstacle in creating parity for teams, and there are teams who intentionally abuse the existing rev share model? I think the current RSN drama needs to work itself out before we'll understand what major changes need to be made to the CBA.
  18. bean5302
    The RSN collapse is changing the dynamics of MLB revenue. Things will settle out, but what's missing from these articles is an understanding of cause and effect and where the money comes from. 1. Bally Sports North pays the Twins $50+MM for exclusive rights to broadcast in-market Twins games because of MLB's blackout policies. This guarantees paying Bally will be the only way a television network will be able to host those games. 2. Comca$t and other cable companies or, in theory, a local TV channel like WCCO pays a portion of their subscriber revenues to broadcast Bally's channel -> $55MM, whatever it is. 3. Comca$t made money by marketing and selling ads to companies during the broadcast. This is where the money came from. Ads on Comca$t = $60MM or whatever. Now, under the Twins MLB.TV scenario... 1. MLB pays the Minnesota Twins some sort of amount nobody knows. A combination of subscription fees, PLUS advertising revenues for Twins partners and broadcast rights that MLB sells, no doubt. 2. MLB produces and broadcasts the content, but MLB.TV is not exclusive, meaning other networks (like Comca$t) can/will pay MLB to broadcast. In this scenario, MLB.TV replaces the broadcaster and the network so it will be sharing money with the team from both. Diamond Sports Group (Bally) dropped their payments on existing deals down to 85%. It's reasonable to conclude that was essentially a profit point for them. It would be unreasonable to conclude the Twins broadcast rights were worth less than at least $35MM. If Bally made at least $35MM (probably $40+), then another RSN or a competitor would have paid that amount or close to it. So it's inconceivable another network wouldn't have been willing to offer the Twins $30MM+ for exclusive rights. The Twins are not going to sign with MLB.TV for an expected $15MM and leave a guaranteed $15MM+ on the table for no reason other than just because it's convenient.
  19. bean5302
    Sure, he's made "some" progress. He was a 2018 pick. He put up a .199/.297/.433 OPS .730 wRC+ 96 line in High A as a 24 year old in their 4th professional season. That's potential outright release from the organization stuff. 2021, 4th pro year, Age 24, High A - wRC+ 96 with a 30% K rate. 2022, 5th pro year, Age 25, AA - wRC+ 86, though he cut the K's down to 23% 2023, 6th pro year, Age 26, AAA - wRC+ 93, learned to take walks. The problem is Keirsey is old for a prospect in years he's spent in the system, the amount of experience he's had (2000 PA despite being out of college...), and his actual physical age. In the same way finesse or polished pitchers without good can look good in AAA, Keirsey should look good in AAA with all his playing experience. The likelihood he has the talent to succeed versus MLB pitching is pretty low. Nobody is demanding Mickey Gasper (who has been a consistently and dramatically better hitter than Keirsey) is entitled to substantial opportunity because Gasper has flaws.
  20. bean5302
    The article listed him as age 25, and he will be playing as age 25 this year. Competitive season age is what's used to determine prospect age in almost all instances. The truth is this article lacks substance and it's trying to create a false narrative through manipulation. The Twins' farm system and prospect list has not been significantly altered by recently graduated sub-age 25 prospects. It's hard to create content in the offseason, but these articles should be better thought out than this. But please, feel free to lob some more personal insults my way, "Community Moderator" @Richie the Rally Goat, and @miracleb.
  21. bean5302
    Zebby Matthews, age 25... doesn't qualify. Here are the following players who will be under 25 this year who also played for the Twins last year where their prospect status could have been impacted. 1. Simeon Woods Richardson = a24 season this year. 2. Brooks Lee = a24 season this year. That's all folks, for the rest, just look at the prospect list!
  22. bean5302
    Agreed. My guess is Festa + Kala'i Rosario + Prielipp or something like that.
  23. bean5302
    Not sure how this works for MLB, but assuming this works the same way as a non-qualified deferred compensation plan like 409A plans for executives and companies. Ohtani's deferrals are not taxable as income. Thus, if he doesn't live in California or the United States when the deferrals start, he probably doesn't ever pay ordinary income tax to them for the deferrals. For the Dodgers, they can claim the future payments as a deferred tax asset on the profit/loss statements in the books (P&L). Essentially, the Dodgers say they're going to have to pay those benefits in the future, and thus, they should be able to claim the tax benefits from paying that liability in the current year. So the $68MM future benefit nets the Dodgers a $27.2MM boost to their P&L, assuming the Dodgers have a 40% corporate tax bracket (68 x 40%). Of course, that assumes the Dodgers file as a C-Corp rather than an S-Corp or LLC or something like that. You can see in the chart that the Dodgers had to fund the escrow out of pocket. The chart assumes the Dodgers move it into the future, but they don't have to do that. If the Dodgers didn't use the grace period and funded immediately (which Ohtani's contract probably required), the Dodgers' cash flow was likely the $41.7MM. It'd look like this for reference:
  24. bean5302
    Yeah, I agree. I expect Keirsey is a slower version of Andrew Stevenson. .243/.310/.388 OPS .668, .109 ISO, 8.0% BB, 27.4% K wRC+ 80 (Stevenson MLB) Career AAA lines .290/.354/.443 OPS .796, .153 ISO, 7.8% BB, 22.0% K (Stevenson) vs. .292/.370/.451 OPS .821, .159 ISO, 10.2% BB, 22.4% K (Keirsey, Jr.) Last season in St. Paul .317/.395/.522 OPS .916, ISO .204, 8.9% BB. 20.6% K, wRC+ 131 (2023 Stevenson) vs. .300/.368/.476 OPS .845, ISO .231, 9.5% BB, 23.0% K, wRC+ 119 (2024 Keirsey, Jr.)
  25. bean5302
    @old nurse's assertion is reasonable based on the CBA's Basic Agreement page 241-242 describing player salaries and other debts which are held in an MLB Escrow account controlled by the office of the commissioner. I believe this only pertains to salary being paid in the given playing year. However, where the actual funding of deferred salaries are concerned, it appears to be left up to the player's specific contract with some restrictions. https://www.mlbplayers.com/_files/ugd/4d23dc_d6dfc2344d2042de973e37de62484da5.pdf What I read is teams can co-mingle the deferred comp escrow with their own assets as specified under the Uniform Player Contract (UPC), but if the club does that, the escrow account must not be shielded from general creditors as I noted above. Ohtani is almost certainly not following a UPC as I outlined. Of course I'm probably not an agent or front office employee of the Twins or an MLB front office employee or a lawyer or financial compliance officer. Probably. LOL.
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