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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Falvey is the biggest problem with this organization. It was almost the sole duty of the Pohlad's to recognize some people don't have the skill set to be successful no matter how nice you think they are or how hard they work or what process they put in place. Falvey has failed miserably as a GM president of baseball operations.
  2. bean5302
    Red Sox opening day payrolls in recent years. I have no problems with those numbers at all. 2025 = $184MM 2024 = $162MM 2023 = $176MM 2022 = $195MM 2021 = $180MM Like any well run team, the Red Sox will expand payroll as needed, but they don't spend just to spend like the Yankees, Mets or Dodgers. Seattle > Blue Jays > Red Sox > Detroit > Guardians > Yankees Brewers > Padres > Cubs > Reds > Phillies > Dodgers
  3. bean5302
    Buxton doesn't get on base. It's why he's not a 10 WAR player and won't be an MVP. That's not going to change. When he made attempts to increase his walk rate, his K rate also climbed. 2nd half .226/.287/.516 OPS .803 6.7% BB, 29.2% K, wRC+ 113 Aug-Sep .228/.292/.531 OPS .823 6.7% BB, 28.7% K, wRC+ 118 Sep alone .233/.300/.556 OPS .856 6.0% BB, 32.0% K, wRC+ 128 (5 doubles, 3 triples, 6 home runs)
  4. bean5302
    TBF, so have the Pohlads and Falvey based on their moves recently. Some of the crazy thinking is just trying to match the team's decision making philosophy... probably.
  5. bean5302
    Want to talk about wasting peak careers? Talk about 2004-2010. Buxton come playoff time 2015 - 138 PA, was playing 2016 - Not good, was playing. 2017 - Not good, was playing. 2018 - Injured ---------------------------- Peak after this 2019 - Injured 2020 - Injured 2021 - Bad team 2022 - Injured 2023 - Injured 2024 - Bad team 2025 - Bad team
  6. bean5302
    MiLB pitching numbers I look at. K%, BB%, WHIP, FIP, ERA. I don't think any pitchers in the Twins' minor league system had truly remarkable seasons by performance standards, but relative to what they had to prove, a few stand out. From this list, Prielipp is my choice. I reviewed several of his game logs with pitch locations / at bats and it seems like Prielipp's stuff worked against him earlier in the season. Painting the edges of the zone resulted in quite a few too many balls which were actually strike 3s, etc. The fact Prielipp was able to make it to AAA and get 82.2 innings pitched this year was great. He proved his stuff was working against higher level players, but his placement of his slider needs some work. He's got to keep it further out of the zone to reduce contact. Dasan Hill needs to throw more strikes. There are an infinite number of pitchers who've been successful getting low minors guys to chase pitches who run into a wall as soon as hitters learn an iota of plate discipline. His season was impressive, but even amongst the group considering his age, there were pitchers who were better. Not many, but a few. Hopefully, Hill can take another step forward and tighten down the control.
  7. bean5302
    Vazquez is the kind of player who should be a February signing on a MiLB contract with an invite to spring training. He's Austin Hedges, but not as good defensively. The challenge system removes any potential value Vazquez actually had.
  8. bean5302
    I don't think anybody cares about any of the specific trades. It's the combination of all the trades gutting the entire bullpen. It's a strategy Falvey employed and watched blow up in his face a few years ago as well.
  9. bean5302
    #1 lesson the Twins can take from recent turnarounds. This front office and leadership group is incompetent. With more opening day resources than anybody else in the division, this front office continues to fail to deliver results.
  10. bean5302
    I'm not optimistic about the Pohlads righting the ship. I think their hubris has been on full display over the past few years. No accountability for others means no accountability for ownership, either. The ownership needs to accept they're responsible for losing the fans and the cratering revenue. Whether it's keeping St. Peter and Falvey far too long or allowing Joe Pohlad to continue to flounder before promoting him even further under the grand strategy of nepotism, the ownership is responsible for essentially staying the course. Falvey wasn't a good president of baseball operations. So giving him Thad Levine's job to pass on to another minion of his choice (Zoll) on top of St. Peter's job seems like an obviously poor choice. Though, to be fair, St. Peter continues to have a lofty title so I wonder if it was just lip service that he's not technically in his original role anymore... Joe Pohald wasn't good in his role as the Executive Vice President, Brand Strategy & Growth so promoting him to Exec Chair was certainly a decision without merit. Ownership has invested enough money to make the team successful. They've been willing to spend and push payroll, but they didn't hold the front office accountable at all when the revenue failed to expand. Instead, ownership lowered the bar, cut salary and kept the people who failed to deliver results.
  11. bean5302
    BTV Ryan +51.8 as of 9/23/25 Ober +26.2 as of 6/26/25 Lewis +25.6 as of 9/23/25 Jeffers +7.5 as of 9/19/25 Clemens +7.1 as of 9/23/25 Larnach +6.0 as of 9/22/25 Sands +5.8 as of 9/11/25 Misiewicz +0.7 as of 6/13/22**** Tonkin +0.4 as of 3/18/25**** Hatch 0.0 as of 12/15/23**** No recent trade proposals. Probably tells you all you need to know about their tender value.
  12. bean5302
    Joe Ryan Career = 3.80/3.83/3.82 for ERA/FIP/xFIP 1st Half 2025 = 2.72/3.26/3.70 2nd Half 2025 = 4.92/4.77/3.84 All of 2025 = 3.47/3.78/3.75 First half, good luck with FB:HR rate + good luck with solo shot home runs. Second half, bad luck with FB:HR rate + normal luck with base runners on when home runs happened.
  13. bean5302
    No idea what problem trading Joe Ryan for prospects solves right now. He's cheap. He's got more than 1 year of control. If the Twins are looking to compete in the next 1-2 years, this move hurts the team while not clearing salary to bring in a free agent to help offset the production loss. If the Twins are initiating a full ground up rebuild expected to take 2-3 years, it makes sense, but Buxton and Lopez would probably be moved before Ryan as their salaries just aren't necessary.
  14. bean5302
    Sam Mele 1961.5-1967.5 Cal Ermer 1967.5-1968 Billy Martin 1969 Bill Rigney 1970-1972 Frank Quilici 1973-1975 Gene Mauch 1976-1980.5 Johnny Goryl 1980.5-1981.5 Billy Gardner 1981.5-1985.5 Ray Miller 1985.5-1986.5 Tom Kelly 1986.5-2001 Ron Gardenhire 2002-2014 Paul Molitor 2015-2018 Rocco Baldelli 2019-2025 Rocco Baldelli has been a manager for the Minnesota Twins so he ranks among them. Evaluating Baldelli vs. other managers is almost impossible since most fans on this site weren't old enough to remember the first 7-8 managers on the list. The managers have operated under 3 different ownership regimes with dramatically different resources available.
  15. bean5302
    Buxton's health has been stunning. I would have taken a bet for $100 that he wouldn't hit 100 games this year, let alone qualifying for a championship trophy. Buxton getting over 120 games has been a real boon to the team, but there have to be major questions on whether or not he's played his way out of Minnesota at this point based on his production and more recent statements. I really couldn't be happier for the guy, he's gained some leverage.
  16. bean5302
    Keaschall needs more plate appearances to get a good feel for what he brings to the plate. His speed is certainly impressive. I sure wish the Twins would hire a couple infield coaches who understand how to catch and throw baseballs, though. Keaschall's ceiling is being wasted.
  17. bean5302
    Joe Ryan has been much the same as previous years. Despite a brilliant first half, he owns a 4.92 ERA after the All Star Break. Ryan's season FIP and xFIP are both right in line with his career rates at 3.78 and 3.76, respectively. His ERA has outperformed this year. Despite the outstanding first half's 2.70 ERA, the regression to the mean caught up as the home run vs. fly ball rate luck faded. Ryan left the All Star break with a 2.70 ERA and a 3.71 xFIP. SIERA likes Ryan better, but it's always been seemingly bullish on him. xERA has been bullish, too. Maybe Ryan is an upper #2 guy, but he's going to have to put together a full season to rank higher than that. Then again, I'd always expected his ceiling was a #3 arm, but it's clear he works hard every year to improve his approach.
  18. bean5302
    The problem with survey's like the one the Athletic put out there is it just panders to fan outrage. Pohlads are responsible for the lousy game day experience and fan apathy but not the product on the field. The Pohlads don't draft or develop or trade or sign players. If the Pohlads were good owners, the Twins could probably run a payroll maybe $30MM higher. It's not a "drop in the bucket" but it's hardly a franchise direction alteration. Falvey hasn't produced, and Baldelli is attached to him. Falvey bears most of the weight of this issue, but I can't help but look at mediocre team like Cleveland and wonder do the Twins really not have the same talent level as them? No, the teams really are similar in talent level. One team defies analytics winning games despite analytics saying they shouldn't. The other team continuously underperforms and finds a way to put in partial efforts and melt down almost every year. Baldelli is a big problem. Just not the biggest, and I don't know as I trust Falvey with making too many baseball decisions given the track record related to his team building initiatives.
  19. bean5302
    Organizational change is needed to correct the direction. Fire Falvey. Not one single drafted/developed All Star through 9 years for Falvey except trade toss-in Brent Rooker and his accomplishments with the Athletics. Maybe Falvey just needs another couple decades? Baldelli needs to go, too. The team has clearly quit on him yet again. Another late season collapse as the team has gone 19-38 .372 (60-102 full season pace) after the All Star Game. We've had 1 good season in the past 5 years. No GM or manager gets that kind of leash in pro sports.
  20. bean5302
    5 WAR does not equal MVP clearly illustrated by Buxton being 8th in the AL in terms of production this (career) year. Writers who've been pushing the MVP thing since 2015 just cannot seem to accept and appreciate Buxton for what he is. He's a 5-6 WAR full season player. He's always been a 5-6 full season player in his prime, and that's an All Star level, not MVP level production. Despite the fact Buxton has blown expectations out of the water this year in terms of playing time, he's exactly what you'd expect; 5-6 WAR. Apart from the SSS production far outside anything he's ever done in his career in 2021, Buxton has never really looked like an MVP threat. Brian Dozier in his prime was more valuble than Buxton. That's almost a straight up "fact" but you'll struggle to find a lot of people who lament how the Twins robbed Brian Dozier of a chance to win it all because of whatever narrative. You'll struggle to find people lamenting how fast Dozier's career ended as well. What might have been stuff. Buxton owns a career .286 OPS in the postseason and he was hurt in 4 of 6 post season opponent series/games the Twins had. I don't think it's reasonable to blame ownership or Buxton for not honoring commitments to each other, really.
  21. bean5302
    You know, I was going to post another blog... but you just reminded me why I don't visit this site anymore. Desperately clinging for a chance to bash somebody months later.
  22. bean5302
    You watched the game, and in the heat of the moment, riding the high emotions you felt the play was closer than it actually was. Somebody presented you with a picture which was intentionally manipulated to be out of context (and it was intentional) which supported your frustration and you accepted it because it felt good as people like to be right. When presented with a picture from the same film that showed the full context of the situation better, you rejected it because nobody likes being wrong. Then you accused the person who provided you with the full picture of manipulation when it's clear the first image was the manipulated one. I insulted what I considered to be your unreasonable behavior. Not you.
  23. bean5302
    Which prospects? 1. Keaschall 2. Prielipp 3. Ricardo Olivar 4. Travis Adams 5. Andrew Morris I think Keaschall is the most likely with Prielipp being pretty likely as Paddack is gone and Olivar being up there with Vazquez being gone.
  24. bean5302
    Looking at Lewis' early batted ball data, watching him spin out in the batters box and clutch his hammy... yeah. It was absolutely brutal. Thing is, his late batted ball data tells a very different story. I think evaluations like this need to be plotted in order to avoid bias. Right now, plotting his batted ball data and looking at xwOBA shows he's gotten better. Letting young guys play through hard times is also what the teams the Twins are supposedly trying to emulate also do.
  25. bean5302
    What power? Every stop of Julien's along the way with 200+ PA with ISO. In regard to ISO, I'd say: .000-.124 = No Power .125-.150 = Light power 5-9 HR .150-.199 = Some pop to mediocre power 10-19 HR .200-.249 = Above average power tool 20+ HR guy .250-.299 = True power hitter 30+ HR guy .300+ = Elite power 40+ HR guy a22 - A, ISO = .156 a22 - A+, ISO = .247 a23 - AA, ISO = .190 a24 - MLB, ISO = .195 a25 - AAA, ISO = .167 a25 - MLB, ISO = .124 a26 - AAA, ISO = .071 (only 94 PA) a26 - MLB, ISO = .121 (only 104 PA) Julien typically hangs out in that mediocre power area. He's got a little more home run pop than Miranda, but not much. Same real category. Miranda managed an ISO of .157 and .158 in his two full seasons in MLB. Julien having power is I think the same perception people had of Alex Kirilloff, who also did not have much game power, but fans thought he did for some reason?
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