bean5302

Detroit would have been over the moon if Baez would have been available at league minimum on a one year contract.

I'm super concerned at how these signings are going to take playing time away from Anthony Prato. I mean, he's earned playing time considering his 2023 was clearly proof he figured everything out and he was just a late bloomer. I'm sure the .387 BABIP for Prato was going to hold consistent, just like that .370 BABIP for Keirsey is a sign of stable production.

Eeles definitely needs some time to prove out his game in AAA, but the 260 PA sample is encouraging. I suspect he's going to be deployed as a utility infield guy rather than at a static position. 2B-SS-3B. How much SS time probably depends on what veteran the Twins acquire for depth and how they feel about giving Holland a full time SS position to start the season. He's ranked a little too low on 2024 prospect lists AFAIC, hopping in at like #30 EoY for MLB and NR for Fangraphs, but he might move around a little for 2025 lists. As was mentioned previously, his batted ball data I saw at a glance was similar to Brooks Lee, but a bit weaker than Lee. Batted ball data from MiLB isn't nearly as reliable.

Paddack had a disappointing season in 2020 Paddack had a disappointing season in 2021 Paddack had a disappointing season in 2022 Paddack had a disappointing season in 2023 Paddack had a disappointing season in 2024 Fixed that :) On another note, the Marlins are probably in some serious hot water regarding payroll, and I don't think they're likely to be able to fix it. Nobody wants to play for them. Probably even worse than the Athletics' reputation at this point.

Joe Pohlad's marketing prowess on full display... the Minnesota Mariners!!!! errr. Twins!!

Nobody is blocking Emmanuel Rodriguez. If Rodriguez continues to rake at AAA, the Twins will put him into the lineup. Larnach or Wallner can easily be moved to DH, which is a position the Twins don't honestly have anybody to play right now. Martin can easily be optioned. That all assumes Larnach or Castro is even on the roster to open the season.

Brooks Lee doesn't have the tools to be effective as a shortstop, and he didn't hit well enough to play the position as a starter even if he did have the tools. How much of Lee's struggles were related to the back and arm issues... at age 23 is pretty unknown. What is known at this point is the Twins don't think he's a SS at the MLB level. Willi Castro has been a very poor shortstop with mixed fielding metrics last year. He has the tools necessary to play the position, but I don't know as he'll be on the opening day roster. The Twins' plan just seems so unpredictable. It feels as if Falvey thinks they have a 36-man active roster every offseason only to be reminded it's a 26-man roster before the start of the season. Royce Lewis is the only player on the Twins with multiple years of team control who isn't a burden on the payroll with the physical tools to play SS at the MLB level. The Twins coaches have been unable to help him address his throwing accuracy problems. Lewis was viewed as the 2023 primary SS by the organization after Correa opted out, but before Correa was brought back. Seems the Twins have written him off as a potential SS. The Twins tried hard to make Austin Martin into a shortstop, but his arm and fielding errors made him into a defensive liability. Martin did make a major leap forward at 2B in 2023 grading out very well compared to his peers in the International League so the Twins, not wanting to promote quality defense, promptly moved him to a utility outfield position. Martin has the physical tools to succeed at 2B, but his instincts really seem poor. He's not a viable SS. Jose Miranda and Edouard Julien are non-starters in the SS discussion. Payton Eeles will be 25, and had an amazing storybook year, but like DaShawn Keirsey, Jr., there are reasons to doubt the sustainability of Eeles' plate production. While Eeles acquitted himself well during limited playing time at SS in St. Paul, scouting reports do not like his arm strength for the position. Then again, scouts didn't like anything in his game and he's proven to be better than the vast majority of prospects. Will Holland is a slick fielding shortstop and utility player who looked good last year, but he broke his leg in late June. The Twins wound up transferring him to the 60 day IL after a month when it became apparent the injury wouldn't see Holland return quickly. It wound up ending his season. He was drafted in the 5th round as an older Junior (a21 season) out of Auburn in 2019, and the bat hasn't historically been there with very high K rates through AA, and he's now entering his age 27 season. His K rate dropped two consecutive years even with promotions, and it was fair at 21.4% in AAA, but it could just be a function of experience and polish. The power showed up last year in a SSS out of nowhere. He's probably viewed as the replacement for Michael Helman this year. Untrusted emergency depth, but with a hint of potential. The top SS's in St. Paul (nothing worth noting in Wichita) last year were Rylan Bannon 274 innings (MiLB free agent) Michael Helman 264 innings (traded to Cardinals for cash) Diego #2 Castillo 188.1 innings (MiLB free agent) Payton Eeles 184.1 innings Will Holland 170.0 innings The Twins adding a veteran guy like a Diego Castillo or Luis Urias is possibly just a move for some high floor AAA depth IMHO. I can't see them signing a definite MLB caliber player unless they move Castro.

They even got cheap with limiting the magnet schedules given away opening weekend, LOL.

These two images above are why Bader was signed. If Austin Martin made use of his tools, he'd be a 2 WAR full season center fielder, but Martin's reaction time is poor and his acceleration is below average. Martins instincts and situational awareness when fielding the ball are also poor. Bader uses his tools to their fullest, and historically (this is a bit concerning) he was quite a bit faster than Martin. Martin is not new to CF or outfield in general. DaShawn Keirsey's (.991/2.53) career fielding numbers in MiLB are arguably worse than Martin's (.995 FP, 2.62 RF/9), though it's very hard to compare the two fairly. What I can say with confidence is Keirsey's numbers in center field do not project him as a plus center fielder, IMHO. He doesn't grade out impressively vs. other center fielders in the same league with the metrics I have available. The fact the Twins have cast off Michael Helman and signed Harrison Bader make it clear how they feel about Keirsey and Martin based on the scouting and coaching teams. The front office has determined neither is a viable starting CF option and the Twins absolutely need that because they know Buxton is very likely to be able to play only 60-80 games in CF.

Sure, if there's value, the Twins might move Bader at the deadline... and if they're also out of playoff contention.

Who is he blocking? DaShawn Keirsey, Jr.?

For the people losing their minds over payroll, this must be really stressful as the narrative of cheap ownership is being eroded. The Twins were projected near $140MM as the offseason commenced, and now they're into the mid $140s. This is Falvey-esque in terms of how things are coming about. Collect a whole bunch of 1 WAR types for depth and versatility rather than spend the budget on a couple highly valuable players. It's the front office holding the team back, not the ownership IMHO.

Not really. wRC+ Bader vs. Margot from first significant playing time season for both players (2018) 2018 = 107 vs. 90 2019 = 82 vs. 84 2020 = 114 vs. 94 2021 = 108 vs. 94 2022 = 84 vs. 104 2023 = 68 vs. 92 2024 = 85 vs. 79 Margot couldn't hit, he was rapidly declining defensively partially due to losing his speed. Bader was at least still good defensively last year. I'd expect a wRC+ 85ish year from Bader and very good defense in center field, where he should still be able to play.

Bader is a serviceable full time CF. Very good defense, poor hitter. At $6MM, makes sense for a Byron Buxton backup. I have no idea what the payroll target for this team actually is. Not sure if this has a significant impact on Castro. I agree with comments comparing Bader to Michael A. Taylor. Fairly similar in terms of value at the plate and value in the field expectations prior to each joining the Twins.

Hits a heck of a lot better than Manny Margot did last year, and he can play defense.

Please, sign me up for an aging 1.0 WAR player. We need it!!!!

Can we shut the door on the Byron Buxton might be healthy or might be the best CF in MLB stuff? He's a good center fielder. One of the better ones, overall. He'll play a maximum of 60-80 games in center field, and his WAR is going to be based on whether or not he finishes the year on a hot streak or cold streak. Last year, he finished on a big hot streak. He was a below average MLB hitter for most of his season. 2B is obviously a dark horse. Depending on trades and personnel swapping, I think Willi Castro could even find himself as a static 2B this year. SP is deep for Minnesota, but lacks ceiling. The Twins might are at the edge of a top 10 rotation in the projections at 13.6 fWAR, ranking 8th in MLB. There's a pretty tight grouping of MLB rotations around that 13.6 value. Plus or minus 1 WAR would rank the Twins anywhere from 5th to 13th.

I'll pass on the Twins promos. First 10,000 fans, lol, yeah right. If it's a good giveaway and for 10k fans, gotta be at the game 1hr before gates open to collect the 8k which will actually be available after people buy the first 2k before game.

I didn't intend to imply Stewart does have any successes. I should have clarified "As far as where he fits in, Brock Stewart is pretty likely to open the year on at least the 15 day IL," When I write "he" I was still talking about Coulombe, not Stewart. It was poorly written on my part.

A hard salary cap is not necessary, and it will never be accepted by players. The impact on long term contracts would be more than a little chilling. Dead cap in terms of performance could render a team non-competitive for years and years with the kind of contracts baseball teams hand out right now. The biggest contract in NFL history is 2020's extension of Pat Mahomes which was a 10 year $450MM deal. Of that, ONLY 3 years and $63MM was guaranteed at signing. Other than Deshaun Watson's catastrophe, Joe Burrow's $147MM guarantee is the largest in NFL history with only 11 contracts in NFL history ever hitting the $100MM guarantee mark. While the participants in this evaluation have undoubtedly gained a new perspective from the exercise, the us (fans + players for some reason) vs. them (owners) still lingers on.

So... when evaluating Derek Falvey's motivation, I think it's important to consider a couple things. 1) How much does Falvey's performance impact whether or not the new owner is going to keep him? 2) How much does Falvey want to stay with the Twins? 3) What are Falvey's other options around the league? 1) If the new owner has already formed an opinion on Derek Falvey (and they very likely have), that opinion is probably going to stick. An unexpectedly poor or great performance by the Twins in 2025 might move the needle, but it's awfully hard to change people's opinions. 2) I don't know about this one. This probably will depend hugely on new ownership. The Twins are an underperforming mid-market team, but the work thus far has come with minimal scrutiny and pressure for an MLB franchise. Expectations in most markets would be much higher pressure, but with a lot more reward, too. Falvey might prefer keeping a lower profile or he might prefer working in a milder climate or he might crave the spotlight. Who knows? 3) Regardless of what fans here think about Falvey's acumen, I think it's likely safe to say another team would hire him in some capacity. That said, Levine clearly hasn't had much luck in that regard. His LinkedIn profile role remains Twins GM. If Levine wanted a role in baseball and Falvey was highly regarded, I expect Levine would have been more coveted.

2023 - .263/.367/.490 OPS .856 wRC+ 130 xwOBA .370, 13.9% BB, 25.1% K 1.7 fWAR 2023 - .263/.381/.459 OPS .839 wRC+ 135 xwOBA .345, 15.7% , BB, 31.4% K 2.8 fWAR 2023 Casas and Julien were very similar. Casas had more power, Julien had more OBP (likely help from BABIP). Both players had disappointing 2024s. Casas saw his K rate spike up from 25% to 31%, and while he hit fastballs well, he was neutral on everything else. Julien obviously outright struggled against most everything other than the fastball. In terms of defense, Casas grades out poorly. In UZR/150 grades him as average, DRS and OAA both say he's consistently been a total butcher due to range issues. Probably not an aberration, either. Casas is incredibly slow. Literally bottom 1% of all MLB players last year and he was only 24.

Obviously, adding a lefty reliever fits the platoon heavy profile of the Twins' strategy, and I'm fine with Coulombe. As far as where he fits in, Brock Stewart is pretty likely to open the year on at least the 15 day IL, Topa's been constantly injured across his slow moving and lengthy career. It's unlikely the Twins come out of ST with no players on the IL. I don't think the Twins are attached to Topa as much as people around here seem to think. He's 34, and he has 1 successful year in his 5 year MLB career. He's never pitched more than 7.2 innings in an MLB season except 2023.

Triston Casas is just a guy as far as I'm concerned. Take him out of Fenway, and poof. Career line: .250/.357/.473 OPS .830 as a lefty playing half his time at Fenway, which strongly favors lefties. Career 840 PA and 2.7 fWAR. It's just not that impressive. It's probably a toss up between Miranda at 1B and Casas at 1B if they're both healthy. The writer(s) at TD have talked about Casas many time this offseason, and I still can't figure out why there's such an interest in him? On a related note, that's exactly why Boston is making him available. Right now at BTV: Ryan +54.6 Ober +54.7 Lopez +47.6 Casas +28.3 Festa +23.6 Larnach +22.6 SWR +19.9

The 86 wins isn't the outlier. The fact no AL Central team projects with more than 86 wins is the outlier. The model's credibility is weak.