bean5302

I'm not concerned about any of these guys. Buxton will probably play 80 games and that's baked into my expectations of him. Correa and Wallner's actual production would obviously take a hit based on any unexpected injury, but I'd expect 135 G from Correa and 550 PA+ with Wallner at 145 G and 550 PA+ losing a lot of PA due to Baldelli's platoon tendencies. My expectations for Buxton 2.5-3.0 fWAR. My expectations for Correa 4.0-5.0 fWAR. My expectations for Wallner 3.0-4.0 fWAR. If they fall well short of that, it'll be disappointing, but it's not like I have any of them in MVP candidate-land.

Gasper is a very interesting player. I did a quick breakout of him in a different thread. He's always hit well, but he's suffered from lack of expectations. Top round draft picks get the best of everything and faith from their organizations. 28th round college seniors? Not so much. At the level Gasper played the most in each season 2018 - a22 R - .259/.395/.496 OPS .892 wRC+ 135 2019 - a23 A - .233/.347/.375 OPS .722 wRC+ 115 2020 - a24 Lost Season 2021 - a25 AA - 40 PA .343/.400/.600 OPS 1.000 wRC+ 165. Gasper lost most of his season due to a thumb injury. Horrible timing. He was now basically considered MiLB roster filler based on how he was handled, which also makes sense based on age. ------------------------------------------------------------------- 2022 - a26 AA - 270 PA .266/.407/.453 OPS .861 wRC+ 141 2023 - a27 AA - 188 PA .269/.388/.423 OPS .811 wRC+ 129 2024 - a28 AAA - 204 PA .367/.471/.592 OPS .1.062 wRC+ 179 Gasper feels like a type (overlooked, low expectations despite always performing well) which could provide some value. There is some possibility other teams just assumed he performed well because he was older and experienced, but Gasper's promotions were pretty speedy in terms of games played at each level things considered. That said, Gasper is very passive at the plate, and that's been consistent with his results in AAA. Swinging at less than 60% of pitches in the zone doesn't work at the MLB level. Waiting for that meatball mistake pitch means you go 0/4 with 3Ks. Gasper has played 10 games in his total career at 2B, including MiLB. Not sure why Boston decided he could cover the position, but whatever. He never even played 2B at college? Anyway Gasper was a catcher in college, but he played a handful of summer league games at 1B and NYY decided to deploy him as 1B/C. He's been very poor at controlling the run game. The Yankees viewed him as a 1B prospect, not a catcher when they drafted him. https://www.thegreedypinstripes.com/2018/06/meet-prospect-mickey-gasper.html Now, as to whether or not Gasper has a chance at the opening day roster? Sure. If he impresses in Spring Training with the Twins giving him a lot of PA (he's been to ST in 2023 - 12PA, and 2024 - 4PA), I could see Gasper on the opening day roster. This is especially the case if the Twins can find a way to improve his catcher skills.

Willi Castro fits the needs of 29 teams. He'd have a roster spot anywhere, honestly, but how much surplus value he has elsewhere vs. how much he has to the Twins is another question. The fact Castro is still a member of the Twins confuses me a little as Minnesota is probably about $140MM in payroll at the moment, not that you'd know it from the doom and gloom comments around here lately, LOL. BTV has Castro's value down from the EoY, now at +8.9 where it was at +15.1 at the end of the season (BTV evaluates player value based on market conditions and projection models). I'm not sure why BTV's projection has soured on him so much, but they have his projected production at 15.0 right now, which is less than 2 WAR next year where it was closer to 3 WAR as I recall. Anyway, a lot will depend on how a team values Castro's defense. I'd say Castro will be viewed as a 2-3 WAR player, depending on the team evaluating him, but that is a huge swing in value. A 3 WAR player actively helps carry your team to the playoffs whereas a 2 WAR player just doesn't hurt your team trying to make the playoffs. Essentially, that's the difference between +9MM value and +15MM value. In regard to what that means in the real world... for a guy like Castro, probably 1 extra mid level prospect. No team is likely to trade a top 5 org prospect for 1 year of Castro as top prospects are highly coveted (overvalued). Teams are more willing to package a couple org #10-15 guys, and maybe a depth guy with some upside. Falvey always seems a day late and a dollar short to trade parties, though. Waiting out the market looking for the clearance deal of a century.

Almost nobody in baseball is slower than Brooks Lee. Correa wins easily.

Torkelson was a .219/.295/.374 OPS .669 wRC+ 92 hitter last year. Torkelson does bring quite a bit of power to his game, but he'll need to adjust his game to start swinging at more offerings and not just waiting for meatballs. It's not like Torkelson has no value. He's still pre-arb, he has an option, and he'll be 26 next year. Projection models expect him to be an above average hitter overall. There will be teams interested in Torkelson, who bashed 31 home runs in 2023, and there is still potential there to have a Larnach-like change in approach and results. Torkelson took a cut at only 23% of pitches outside the zone last year (lowest 15%), and offered at a below average 65% of pitches in the zone. Contact rates in the zone were good. Kind of similar to how Larnach was so unlikely to swing. A "flyer" is generally used for guys who've been DFA'd and are on waivers. That's not going to happen to Torkelson, and he won't be had by the Twins for less than a top 10 prospect. He'd cost a guy like Marco Raya or better. Baseballtradevalues has Torkelson at +8.4 in value right now, and the Tigers aren't going to sell cheap to the Twins.

To be fair, Jorge Lopez was pretty good with Baltimore for before being traded to the Twins in 2022, but I'd probably take Manea. Actually, Jorge Lopez wasn't terrible last year, either. 2.89 ERA? (3.94 FIP), and he was downright good with the Cubs after the Mets traded him (2.03 ERA, 3.20 FIP). I honestly did not see that coming. Also. :p

I haven't seen anything about Wallner changing his swing in AAA. He was tinkering with the swing before the season started to cover the plate better. The quotes I've seen from Wallner in regard to his struggles during the season had to do with his approach at the plate and pressing. Wallner made those adjustments himself. Not getting selected in Rule 5 absolutely means the league doesn't think a player can translate. No team would turn away a free MLB caliber player, even if they didn't have the roster space, they'd simply make the space by trading another player. Nine teams got below average production at the plate from their 1B last year. 12 teams got below average production from their DH position last year. There are 3 positions a guy like Seymour could fill. Bench bat, 1B/DH. Multiply that by 29 teams and that's 87 potential openings he was passed over. There are plenty of huge power guys who MLB teams didn't believe in. Adam Brett Walker III, Daniel Palka types. https://community.ottoneu.com/t/the-legend-of-bob-seymour-a-stats-somewhat-deep-dive/14762 If Seymour had a sub-30% K rate or was a year or two younger, he'd have absolutely been claimed (not to mention he'd been on Tampa Bay's 26 man roster). I do think he might have some potential, and so do a lot of other teams, I'd think. But he's far from a sure bet, and that's why teams passed him over.

Generally, the faster a ball travels off a bat, the more likely it is to turn into a hit or especially a home run. Higher exit velocities usually translates to better production. In the case of 110+mph balls off the bat, they rarely turn into outs because the ball has to be hit directly at somebody. The batter cannot control exactly where the ball goes. Top Average EV in MLB Last Year 1. Aaron Judge, OPS 1.159 wRC+218 2. Shohei Ohtani, OPS 1.036, wRC+ 181 3. Oneil Cruz, OPS .773, wRC+ 110 4. Juan Soto, OPS .989, wRC+ 180 5. Ketel Marte, OPS .932, wRC+ 151 6. Vlad Guerrero Jr. OPS .940, wRC+ 165 7. Kyle Schwarber OPS .851, wRC+ 135 8. Matt Champman, OPS .790, wRC+ 121 9. Rafael Devers, OPS .871, wRC+ 134 10. Yordan Alvarez, OPS .959, wRC+ 168 The obvious outlier there is Oneil Cruz with his propensity to hit tons of ground balls, but every single hitter in the rest of the list put up All Star to MVP caliber hitting numbers. In any case, I think you're missing the point of the article. The point is honestly that Matt Wallner has superstar pieces to his game, and the potential to be one of the most valuable players in baseball.

Pretty dramatic again. It's been directly communicated the Twins do not expect to cut payroll. So $130MM is the expected target, but they may actually be expanding payroll. We're just about into January and the Twins are running a $140MM payroll at the moment. There has been some clarification on a couple players. Correa - Not one single team has come calling for Correa. Zero. No conversations. Period. The Twins would need a potential trade partner to start exploring this hypothetical scenario to begin with. There is only one team I can think of, and that's the Nationals. Lopez - The Twins are actively listening to offers for Pablo Lopez, but have not indicated a willingness to move him. The Pohlads have not yet sold the team, and it takes months and months for any such transaction to actually finalize. Any major moves which would seriously hurt the team's competitiveness and those moves would potentially hurt revenue and profit for the current ownership while also being counter to the statements the front office has made about keeping payroll the same. The Pohlad family has not typically done the opposite of what they say they're going to do.

Don't think it would be a problem to get Seymour, but it doesn't seem like the league believes he can make enough contact to be a viable MLB hitter. He was Rule 5 eligible this year and no team grabbed him. https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/rule-5-draft-preview-which-prospects-will-be-selected/

Options are based on the 40 man roster, not the 26 man roster. If a player is on the 40 man roster and they're assigned to the minors for more than 20 days, they burn an option. It's possible for a player to run out of options without stepping onto an MLB field once in their career. Emmanuel Rodriguez, for instance, burned an option last year. He only has 2 remaining. Moran wasn't on the Twins' 40 man roster so he was eligible for the MLB Rule 5 draft. Since he was on a MiLB contract with the Twins, he transferred to Boston as a MiLB contract without needing to be added to the Red Sox's 40 man roster. That means Moran will be making like $50k in AAA. Moran has 1 option remaining, and unless he's added to the 40 man roster by the Red Sox, the option will not be burned. Gasper was on Boston's 40 man so he's been transferred to the Twins' 40 man, but that only entitles him to like $85k a year in AAA. Gasper was added to the 40 man roster for the first time in his career on 8/12. At that point, he had 3 options. He still has 3 options remaining because the Red Sox only optioned Gasper to AAA for 14 days (9/7-9/21) after he was added to the 40 man and 20 days is the minimum to burn an option. I'd consider him highest on the depth chart behind Jeffers and Vazquez at this point, but the fact his bat has played so well means there might be the potential he could fill other gaps on the roster. Both players will make league minimum if they're called up. 2018 draft pick Chris Williams officially parted ways with the Twins' organization by signing a MiLB deal with the Mets on 12/20. I don't think it's a coincidence the Twins made a move to acquire MiLB catching depth. I don't think this move had much to do with Vazquez.

a21 - A+, 71 PA, .210/.310/.306, OPS .616, ISO .097, 11.3% BB, 18.3% K, wRC+ 84 The Twins are giving him the Austin Martin treatment trying to get him to play SS despite not necessarily having the skills to handle the position. Right now, it's all about whether or not you believe he can start hitting or get faster.

Gasper was drafted in like the 28th round in 2018 as a senior out of college already at age 22, and the Yankees started him off in Rookie Ball. Gasper's first experience at AAA at age 27 wasn't smooth, but it was SSS. 2018 - a22, Drafted, Rookie Ball 2019 - a23, Mostly A ball, promoted to A+ late 2020 - a24, Lost season 2021 - a25, Thumb injury, lost a ton of time, was already playing with 2-5 days between games. 2022 - a26, AA, moved off catcher to 1B in May, sporadic playing time still. 2023 - a27, Mostly AA, promoted to AAA late. Played a mix of C/1B early, moved off catcher in July. 2024 - a28, MiLB Rule 5 pick by BOS, they used him as MiLB depth shifting him back down to AA. They used him as utility 1B/C, promoting him to AAA in June, then MLB in August for a few games, optioning him back down to AAA, before calling him up to end the season. He is clearly viewed as MiLB roster filler by NYY and BOS, though his performance at the plate has actually been very good to excellent at virtually every stop. It's a bit odd, and it feels like he might have been unfairly written off due to age. There's the potential he could just need some playing time. It's a fair exchange of guys who might have a better opportunity to actually get some MLB playing time with a change of scenery, but I suspect the Twins are just filling the AAA roster spot which was occupied by Chris Williams now that Williams is in the Mets' system.

Kepler got 1 yr and $10MM. He's been a solid starter over his career, but he wasn't close to worth a QO. The Twins were expected to make the playoffs so trading Kepler mid season wouldn't have made sense. The problem with Kepler is he wasn't traded in the 2023-2024 offseason, but Falvey doesn't seem to have any sense or urgency so it seems like he's holding the short end of the stick on tradable assets in January/February. While the writer's opinions of other players is they weren't as good as Kepler, the fact remains Carlos Santana, Jake Odorizzi and Kenta Maeda all received bigger contracts than Kepler; the market spoke to those player's relative value, and Kepler was not as good as them. If we're going to ignore Minnesota's position and Kepler's poor production, then we'd have to ignore those other player's problems.

Larnach has hit at his ceiling IMHO. Counting on him to take another step forward at the plate, let alone repeat his 2024 feels like asking for disappointment to me. I think Larnach's 2nd half probably represents who he is as a hitter now (against righties only since he was so aggressively platooned). His performance last year in and of itself is pretty remarkable given his history of being a league average bat. Larnach's xwOBA looked about like his overall 2024 production level. Lewis' health and mental state will be key next year. Obviously, he was not at all happy with management or even some other players to end the season. Lewis really needs to avoid another leg injury this coming year as repeated lower body injuries undoubtedly robbed him of a lot of his power and production. If that happens, I expect he'll rebound nicely. Miranda is more of a guy I think the Twins need to step up next year. I'm not sure why the Twins struggle so mightily with health issues, but when Miranda's been healthy, he seems like a solid wRC+ 115 guy. Carrying that through the year would be a big boost.

Chicago is not going to be a better team. If anything, they'll be worse, but they might scrape out a better record just on luck. Maybe you meant Cleveland or Detroit or Kansas City, all of whom may/wil be better.

Improve vs. tread water or trade a slight drop in production and $20MM of payroll capacity to use to improve elsewhere? Correa's a very good player, but the idea the Twins season is guaranteed to be all over if they trade him isn't realistic, and I don't understand why people are so psychologically attached to him (or other Twins players).

Which "bad" free agents are getting $10-15MM? Urshela got $2MM. Estrada got $3MM. Gallo will get a MiLB contract or something similar. Willy Adames got $21MM next year or $15MM in savings vs. Correa. Correa can be replaced. He's like the 7th or 8th best shortstop in MLB.

The Twins moved Jeremy Lee to spot starting before the end of the year so it doesn't feel like he's high on the team's radar. Lee pitched to a 7.13 ERA / 5.07 FIP in the 2nd half of A+ ball with a 16% K and 10% BB rate while giving up a ton of hits despite not having a ridiculous BABIP against. Honestly, there's nothing to suggest he's on a successful path right now. Ignoring his bad games to try and get to some more respectable numbers means his lucky games get highlighted as legitimate.

Baldelli will absolutely platoon him. He'd platoon Babe Ruth.

The Twins clear $36MM of payroll space with a trade. That means they can fill holes in other locations. Correa is not an MVP caliber player so it's not like he's irreplaceable or something. Correa should be expected to be a 4-5 WAR player over a full season. About half the value you'd expect from an MVP candidate. There's also a fair chance Royce Lewis could outperform Correa's ceiling at SS. Ha-seong Kim appears to be biding his time, MLBTR and Bleacher Reports have him at 1 year and $12-14MM. It's so wild to me how players get evaluated these days. Anyway, sign Kim and save a ton while filling a need. Aside from that, the only team I'd think who might be interested in a trade for Correa would be the Nationals, and that should tell you plenty about how valuable Correa really is.

2022 Twins' top starting pitching prospects being developed and all of them were pretty much can't miss guys in prospect reports. 1. Jordan Balazovic (org 5) 2. Jhoan Duran (org 6) 3. Josh Winder (org 7) 4. Simeon Woods Richardson (org 8) 5. Matt Canterino (org 9) Total starting pitcher fWAR generated in the 2 years following the 2022 status? 1.8.

LOL, Joey Gallo. It's always surprising when I see people advocate for him. He's still semi-popular despite not being a quality baseball player.

Benintendi was terrible in 2023 as well, even if we were ignoring him being a left handed hitting outfielder rather than a first baseman. Even looking at Benintendi's career numbers, he's just a tick over average as an MLB batter. Furthermore, he's not a free agent. He's under contract with the White Sox until 2028.

Meh. The only one listed who I would bet on being significantly better than Jose Miranda is Pete Alonso, and I wouldn't be interested in meeting Alonso's asking price regardless of the team budget.