bean5302

What you just described was a backup utility player. Adequate to good defender, below average bat. Doesn't take walks. Doesn't get on base. Doesn't hit for power (couldn't). Is one of the slowest players in MLB, has a weak arm. Your position is all hype/hope and no current reality. Lee was not a good fielder last year. I watched him. Balls dropped in short outfield spots because Lee was simply too slow to chase them down. He didn't make throws he needed to make at the MLB level. He graded out below average at SS in all 3 advanced metrics. DRS -1, UZR/150 -3.4, OAA -2 in just 208 innings. UZR/150 at 2B was -13.3. The sample sizes are just too small to be credible on paper, and the metrics were generous compared to what I saw in person. Lee is not an acceptable starter at SS and he never will be. He might be able to eek out a subpar performance at 2B... maybe, but I doubt it with his speed. He might be able to handle 3rd as he has exactly the same physical tools as Jose Miranda but better instincts. Now time for the reality bomb with real numbers, not hype. Sprint speed fastest to slowest: Willi Castro 27.9, Mickey Gasper 27.0, Carlos Correa 26.8, Eduard Julien 26.7, Royce Lewis 26.6, Jose Miranda 25.9, Carlos Santana 25.9, Brooks Lee 25.6. Yep. Brooks Lee was a slower runner than Carlos Santana. Fact, Brooks Lee was among the slowest 12% of players in all of MLB and speed is important for 2B/SS/OF. He's a statute. How about when he throws the ball? Max throwing speed last year. Carlos Correa 94.1, Royce Lewis 85.5, Jose Miranda 83.2, Brooks Lee 83.1, Eddie Julien 83.0. Now do you get it? Julien is faster than Lee, and Julien has the same (or better) arm. You see, Brooks Lee's fastest throws were coming from the far side of the infield which favors higher velocities from being able to setup while 2B needs to make quicker throws because velo doesn't matter as much due to the distance. The 0.1mph advantage Lee has is likely attributable to the fact Lee had more incentive to set before throwing. Brooks Lee = Matt Tolbert = Levi Michael. That's my opinion based on his stats and watching him play. Maybe if Lee committed to improving his athleticism, sprint speed, range, arm, or built strength to hit the ball harder he could compensate for his bottom tier MLB athleticism, but I that'd be highly unusual.

I do think Julien could be solid. I wasn't a huge proponent of him being a stud after 2023 when a lot of hype was still supporting him. I think Julien is probably going to be a 2 WAR player. That's solid enough while he's cheap. Brooks Lee is just going to be fine as a utility infielder, but I don't think he's going to be a guy I'd want starting. I don't think Lee will get on base well enough or show enough pop to make up for his low OBP. His physical abilities will limit his value defensively. Basically, I expect Brooks Lee to be Matt Tolbert 2.0. I'm the extreme outlier here on TD it seems. I just don't buy the hype at all. Same with Walker Jenkins and Emma. I'm way lower on those guys than almost anybody else. We'll see. I could look like a total moron at the end of this year, but it'll be great for the Twins if I do.

I'm saying I believe @USAFChief is wrong, and so are you. The argument there is no such role as a low leverage reliever because a low leverage reliever will sometimes (rarely) find themselves in a high leverage situation. I've addressed this previously with the actual rate of high leverage usage for a pitcher as defined by when a pitcher enters a game under a high leverage situation comparing Jay Jackson to Jhoan Duran. It's the same argument as saying Christian Vazquez is not a catcher because he will be used as a DH or the real reason we had to get rid of Kyle Farmer is because he makes a lousy pitcher and had a 6.75 ERA last year with as many or more innings pitched than Daniel Duarte, Cole Irvin, Brent Headrick or Justin Topa. The other argument which is used is the idea low leverage doesn't exist period because low leverage can become high leverage if the reliever gives up runs. It's a strawman seeking to manipulate the definition of a low leverage reliever. A relief pitcher who is considered low leverage is defined by when a team wants to use a reliever in regard to when the reliever enters the game, not when a reliever is pitching or exits a game. Jay Jackson pitched in 20 games last year. The Twins were 6-14 in those games. He took the loss in 1 game in his first 13 appearances and 18.0 innings pitched. His average leverage index entering the game was 0.49. He had two games where the Twins called his number in a higher leverage situation. That's a low leverage reliever. Of course, Jackson took the loss in both high leverage situations, but in only one situation was Jackson responsible for the runs on 4/6 where Jackson's number was called to face the meat of the LA Dodgers lineup in the 7th inning with the score 2-2 (Betts, Ohtani, Freeman). I don't care who walks to the mound in that situation, there's a high probability it doesn't end without a run scored. On 5/10, Jackson entered the game tied 8-8 in the 7th against the Blue Jays. Jackson managed an out and had a runner on 1st/3rd before Caleb Thielbar had one of his early season meltdowns and the game BB/1B/SF/BB. There will be a whole bunch of innings pitched this year by relievers who are only on an MLB roster because of injuries, reputation or cost. There will be a bunch of relievers who pitch poorly. In fact, 25% of the more than 250 relievers with 30+ innings last year had an ERA of 4.50+. Their record? 162-169. Basically average. Is a "low leverage" reliever or basically a guy you'd rather not have pitching in high leverage situations going to significantly change outcomes compared to Michael Tonkin or this years version of Steven Okert or Ronny Henriquez? No. It's all the same.

I think what's being manipulated when it comes to weight lifting is strength training vs. body building. Right now, there is a clearly stupid trend in MLB to add mass and muscle like a body builder rather than strength training. Lifting weights as part of strength training helps stabilize joints with lean muscle helping taking up loads from tendons and ligaments, and proper techniques focus on long range of motion strength to improve range of motion which helps eliminate muscle pulls and strains. The focus is on increasing strength to spread loads without adding weight and size. Body building adds a lot of weight which increases the load on joints, tendons and ligaments while limiting the range of motion due to bulk and techniques used. It increases risk of injury. An NFL wide receiver might be 6'2" and 200lbs and run 32 ft/sec. An NFL running back might be 5'10 and 200lbs and run 30 ft/sec. An NFL linebacker might be 6'3" and 250lbs and run 27 ft/sec. <-- this is what baseball infielders are trying to be now. Bulk/Weight = slow, injury prone.

It could be, but I don't think the Dodgers will win more than 105. The Padres and Diamondbacks should be strong in that division, and the Giants are a bit of a dark horse with Justin Verlander and Robbie Ray both looking like they're potential front end rotation arms again. The hapless and embarrassing Rockies are projected even worse than the White Sox, but other than Colorado padding the win column, the Dodgers have their work cut out for them.

I don't see it. I see the TD hype machine on overdrive for a guy since day 1 of the draft without the physical tools necessary to truly be considered versatile. Scouts get excited about players, too. From day one, scouts have said Brooks Lee probably lacks the speed and athleticism to cover SS, but scouting reports were clearly higher on his arm than what the true metrics show. The power was lower than expected as well with Lee's max exit velocity suggesting he's a 40 grade power tool, and Brooks Lee hasn't shown he'll take walks which severely limits his OBP (big part of what I consider the hit tool) so his hit tool hasn't shown the plus grade, either. Lee is the far smoother fielder of the two, but Julien honestly has shown the better physical tools. I don't see either as a plus fielder anywhere on the baseball field.

Christian Vazquez isn't a catcher because he played DH in 3 games last year.

My expectation is Brooks Lee will never pan out. He won't be able to hit well enough to play full time, and his "versatility" is the same as Eddie Julien a player with the same physical skill set.

The payroll cut and the subsequent September collapse, the lack of accountability for the manager and front office. Dave St. Peter wasn't held accountable so much as the Pohlads saw an opportunity to cut costs with the team up for sale, IMHO. The cheap and limited giveaways, the falling service levels, cable TV debacle, crappy new logo, and lousy season ticket holder experiences. I have no faith in the management from top to the bottom. When you feel the team is led by the utterly incompetent, you're not going to have a lot of optimism. If the Pohlad's backtrack and don't sell the team, they're going to have a very, very hard time winning fans back.

There are going to be 8 guys in the bullpen including guys who are back end relievers and fan favorites with options. There is no need to hold Castellano on the roster for the full season, they can waive him whenever. If the Twins are blowing out their bullpen in April in all tight games, they've got a heck of a lot more of a problem than their #8 bullpen arm. This apparent vision of the Twins stashing Griffin Jax in AAA so Castellano can stay on the roster is ridiculous as is the expectation Castellano is going to come in to pitch the last 3 innings of game 163 this year because the Twins will have no other options and Rob Manfred has a group of hired goons insisting the Twins can never waive Castellano. Castellano may not be good enough. The coaches will evaluate his stuff, what works and how well he can place his pitches. That said, Castellano's numbers were more impressive than any Twins pitcher not named Zebby Matthews in AA last year. Somehow, I think fans around here would be losing their minds at the suggestion Andrew Morris or Marco Raya be released.

This is a comparison I’ve been wanting to tackle for a long time. In part due to the legendary status of Johan Santana amongst Twins fans. Santana was the greatest pitcher in MLB for a very short time, and a lot of Twins fans look back with a fascination focused on a Twins starter who was a legitimate ace posting up historically impressive ERAs for years in a row. A pitcher who was nationally recognized as peerless. What about Frank Viola, though? While fans recognize the name and revere the World Series Championship Viola brought the team in 1987, often Viola is considered a far cry from the dominant rotation arm Santana was. How does Viola really stack up vs. the legend of Johan? Peaks It's not open for legitimate debate. Johan Santana was the greatest pitcher in baseball for the years 2004-2006. Santana led the AL all three years in WAR, ERA+, Strikeouts and WHIP. His dominance on the mound was rewarded with a 55-19 record over the span, never winning fewer than 16 games. In Santana’s most dominant season of 2004, Santana put up a colossal 8.7 bWAR across 228 innings with a record of 20-6 with a 2.61 ERA and an ERA+ 182. Surely Viola can’t compare, right? Probably a lot closer than you think. Viola’s 1987 and 1998 were also insane. 8.1 bWAR in 251 innings followed by 7.7 bWAR in 255 innings, a record of 17-10 followed by 24-7 with ERA’s of 2.90 and 2.64 adjusting to still gaudy ERA+ number of 159 and 154, respectively. Viola took home the 1988 Cy Young Award for his efforts, and though he was not the triple crown winner like Santana, Viola’s results were comparable to the best using today’s metrics. Ultimately, Santana and Viola were comparable in terms of value during their peaks. Santana’s peak was higher and more obvious, but the two pitchers mirror each other pretty closely in terms of value as you stretch that peak out. Viola’s best years stretched 10 years starting with 1984’s 4.5 bWAR 3.21 ERA (ERA+ 131) season through his final great season at age 33 with the Red Sox where he pitched to a 3.14 ERA (ERA+ 148) and another 4.3 bWAR. Santana’s stretch into his transition years from 2003’s 4.1 bWAR, 3.07 ERA (ERA+ 148) start until his age 31 season where he put up 4.7 bWAR effort during the 2.98 ERA (ERA+ 131) with the Mets. In terms of value: Best single year? Santana. Best 2 years? Viola. Best 3 years? Santana. You get the picture. Isolating Santana’s 8yr peak gets you to 6.0 annual bWAR and an astonishing ERA+ 150. Isolating Viola’s 7yr that way gets him to 5.6 annual bWAR an ERA of 3.19 and an impressive ERA+ 128 dragged down by 2 mediocre seasons being clumped in there. Career Performance Johan Santana finished his career as a 2x Cy Young, and 4x All Star. He accumulated 51.1 bWAR and 2,025 innings pitched across 12 seasons with a stellar 3.20 ERA and a truly epic ERA+ 136. In fact, Santana’s career ERA+ 136 ties him for 26th in MLB history. The only mark against Santana is how short his career really was. That said, Santana benefitted greatly from starting off as a reliever while learning how to throw his signature changeup protecting him from pre-peak innings dragging his career results down while his shoulder injury put the kibosh on his career after his age 31 season. The truncation protected his career stats from imminent decline which was already being foreshadowed by the beginnings of up and down results and a declining K rate. Still, it’s undeniable that Santana was a rock never having a hiccup year from 2002-2010. Frank Viola’s career ended as a 1x Cy Young, 3x All Star, 1x World Series Championship, 1x World Series MVP. Viola’s 47.1 career bWAR across 2,836 innings and 15 years only slightly trails Santana. His 3.73 ERA and career ERA+ of 112 reflected his rough start, the futile attempted comebacks through age 36 totaling 4 years of negative WAR. Unlike Santana who was shielded and carefully developed, an immature Frank Viola was thrown into the fire by a desperate Twins organization in 1982, and the results reflected Viola’s fiery emotional immaturity and lack of polish. The career WAR makes it clear Viola was a true ace over a long span of years in his own right. Post season performances This one is all Viola. Viola pitched the Twins into the World Series and then took home the World Series MVP as the Twins won it all in 1987. Viola was 3-1 used only as a starter in the only year he saw postseason action. The Twins were 4-1 in games Viola pitched. Viola’s Game 1 vs. the Tigers was good with 7 innings and 3 ER before putting runners on in the 8th and being lifted for Reardon who made a mess. The Twins won anyway thanks to the hitters. Game 2 was a 5 inning 2 ER performance where one ER was once again the gift of the Twins’ bullpen. Viola earned the World Series MVP by pitching 3 of the 7 games, taking the mound for games 1 and game 7 allowing 1 run in 8.0 innings of work in both instances. Johan Santana got 4 separate years of chances to pitch in the post season with a consistently great Twins team and more teams making the playoffs. His record was 1-3, with the Twins often paying the price when Santana stepped onto the mound; directly being credited with losses from bullpen meltdowns. Santana’s lone win came out of the bullpen where he nearly gave up the only 2 runs the A’s scored before the Twins hitters saved the day to reverse fate. Later, in 2004 and again in 2006 as a starter, Santana pitched excellently. Unfortunately, he was out-dueled in 2 of 3 starts, and Santana was lifted from games earlier than Viola giving Gardy’s bullpen instincts too many opportunities. Career Ends When it comes to the end of their careers, the two pitchers are again, similar. Santana’s well documented career ending shoulder capsule tear at age 31 failed to heal properly, even after an additional surgery and attempted comeback with the Blue Jays following his disastrous 6 years with the Mets. Viola’s career was also ended by injury. In mid-September of 1993 while just 33 years old and sporting a sparkly 3.14 ERA, Viola was shut down with elbow issues leading to Tommy John surgery in an era where the surgery was much less successful. Perhaps some of the high failure rates were from what would be considered utter medical malpractice today. Viola was back on the mound to open 1994. Yes. You read that right. 6 months after TJ, Viola was starting games in MLB. I can only imagine the rehab process involved rubbing dirt on the elbow and ignoring the pain. Astonishingly, Viola’s body was unable to heal in 6 months what needs 18 months on average these days with far more advanced practices. The ligament replacement obviously failed, and on top of that, muscles had been torn as well. Viola never returned to form though he continued to attempt comebacks with an arm that had been MacGyver’d back together a couple times. Parting Ways Again, both players are extremely similar being ace pitchers traded from the Twins to the Mets. Viola was traded mid-season after contract negotiations broke down thanks in no part to the front office rescinding the offer they agreed to, but unlike Santana who was beloved and supported by fans railing against the “cheap Pohlads” most fans took the side of the owners in Viola’s case. Twins fans were furious Viola would push for top dollar or test free agency after coming off a WS MVP and Cy Young in back to back years. The difference in fan support is possibly a major factor in how well Viola is remembered as Viola was essentially given the “don’t let the door hit you on the way out” treatment. Undoubtedly the pain of the loss of Viola was buffered by the acquisition of core players for the 1991 Twins World Series Championship team. As part of the Viola trade, the Twins got back 1991 ace Kevin Tapani and elite closer Rick Aguilera. Conversely, Santana brought back Carlos Gomez, who was flipped for JJ Hardy who was flipped for what was AAAA relief pitching. Summary Viola and Santana are highly similar in many ways. Having similar slow starts to their careers, both being acquired from other teams, both turning into elite Cy Young winners for the Twins, both leaving the Twins for the Mets, and both having their careers ended many years early by injury. Johan Santana was better, but not nearly as much as many people seem to think, and Viola brought the Twins the 1987 World Series Championship where Santana often brought playoff hand wringing. Santana is especially appreciated by fans here possibly because of his Twins-heavy career with nearly 80% of his career WAR coming while in a Twins uniform, and Santana had the advantage of playing with the Twins during a period where they were consistently making the playoffs. Frank Viola was truly dominant on the mound for many years putting together Cy Young caliber 6+ WAR campaigns for the Twins, Mets and the Red Sox, but unlike Santana, Viola stacked just over 50% of his career WAR together in a Twins uniform while surprisingly appearing in more All Star games in a Mets uniform than with Minnesota. Both pitchers were true, legitimate aces who gave Twins fans the expectation a game would be won versus the hope a game would be won, and it's quite possible both could be in the Hall of Fame today if it weren't for the career ending injury bug.

White Sox could help the Twins into a wildcard playoff spot this year. That's the only relevance they have.

WAR is the best metric to evaluate player value. There is little room for debate on the subject, and while you could debate a little on the value of comparing pitchers in different eras using annual WAR directly due to how pitchers were utilized, WAR is king. It demonstrates how much value a player added relative to other players. What would have Blyleven's WAR / ERA+ looked like if he only had to pitch 5.0-7.0 innings? We'll never know, but WAR at least tells us how much value he added. In any case, Bert Blyleven was arguably one of the 10 greatest pitchers in MLB history, and arguably the 2nd best pitcher in MLB whereas Johan Santana was not remotely close career wise. Johan Santana was similar to a guy like Bret Saberhagen or Frank Viola. On to Radke. I compared Blyleven to Santana as they were both Cy Young-like pitchers. I said Radke was among the elite. Santana was the best pitcher in MLB, period, but for a very short period. My argument is Radke was not "steady," but he also wasn't the best pitcher in baseball. Certainly a bonefide ace pitcher for many of the years he pitched. Radke constantly gets overlooked and downplayed in terms of his contributions. You're seriously downplaying 5+ WAR seasons as innings eater stuff. This is the kind of absolute crap I've come to expect from people when it comes to Radke. How many Twins pitchers have produced a 5+ WAR season after the last time Radke did that for the 4th time in a Twins jersey? Three pitchers. Johan Santana 2x (2005-2006), Francisco Liriano 1x (2010) and Sonny Gray 1x (2023). How many pitchers in baseball produce 5+ WAR seasons a year? About 10. The top 10 pitchers in all of MLB. Downplaying Radke's level of production as durable innings eater stuff is ludicrously disrespectful. Jim Kaat (HoF) career ERA+ of 108, and less career WAR (45.2) than Radke Jack Morris (HoF) career average ERA+ of 105, less career WAR (43.6) than Radke. Pablo Lopez's career ERA+ is 108. Frank Viola's career ERA+ is 112. Brad Radke's career ERA+ is 113 (45.6 career WAR all in a Twins uniform) Bert Blyleven's career ERA+ is 118. Radke gets the nod from me due to having a Twins WAR of 45.6 (2nd highest in Twins history behind Blyleven's 49.1) vs. Santana's 35.8. Like I pointed out, in Radke's era, he compared well to Hall of Famers. Again, Radke was not "steady;" he was not a mid rotation or back end innings eater guy, and he'd possibly have a Hall of Fame case if he'd have fixed his shoulder and kept pitching for another 5 years. Radke also may have had the most instrumental role in saving the Twins from contraction of any player. Radke forced Pohlad to the negotiating table, and he forced the Twins to open up their wallets to attempt to compete, and then Radke accepted a competitive offer from the Twins whereas Santana forced his way out looking for the biggest contract in baseball regardless of impact to the Twins' roster. Radke's efforts brought the Twins back to competitive play just before contraction. Radke had a bigger impact on the Twins than Santana's short 4 years as a dedicated rotation member.

Taking a look at their positions, many of their starters are only age 25-27 and could be expected to improve significantly at the plate this year, plus the addition of India to cover for OF weakness as the Royals version of Willi Castro. I think this year's Royals offense will be substantially better than last year. Bubic is the dark horse of the rotation. He's been sitting at 92-94mph with his fastball this spring, building off his excellent results as a reliever last year. If he emerges as a mid/upper rotation arm for the Royals this year, they could have a dominant rotation. I pick the Royals to win close to 90 games this year.

If you're talking about Royce Lewis, the doctors have talked about it. The 2 years he spent recovering from consecutive ACL reconstructions weakened the rest of his lower body making him susceptible to additional injuries. The severe quad strain last year didn't heal, and then he pulled his groin. Lewis was never 100%. I'm not sure if he'll ever be able to work his way back to "healthy"

I expect 6-8 weeks. All of April, maybe until 2nd week of May. He'll miss at least 30 games of the regular season.

We know what happened in 2010 so I'm comparing my expectations this year to what actually happened in 2010. That said, Liriano was perhaps the best starter in baseball in 2006. Obviously missed 2007 and a big portion of 2008, but he was very good in the 14 limited innings starts 2008. 2009 was a rough year for him (like Lopez's season last year), but Liriano had shown potential ace upside previously. When it comes to Pavano, Ryan's current track record wasn't as good as Pavano's was coming into 2010, and Ryan's typical full season (especially with the 2nd half flop), would be about on par with what Pavano did in 2010. I expect about a 4.50 ERA from Woods-Richardson this year. Maybe 1.0 WAR? Blackburn had a longer leash to get pummeled back in 2010, but with 12 of the 26 starts (46%) were at least 5.0 innings with less than a 4.00 ERA, and 14 of 26 (54%) being a quality start. Compared to SWR's numbers (43%) and (25%), respectively, Blackburn's 2010 was pretty even with SWR's 2024, IMHO.

Chris Paddack has only been healthy at a full season trade deadline once in his entire career (2019). A great strategy would be to trade him before the regular season opens (depending on any health issues that pop up) rather than having him blocking better pitchers.

Player 1: Max MPH throw: 83.2, Sprint Speed: 25.6 ft/sec - Miranda Player 4: Max MPH throw: 83.0, Sprint Speed: 26.7 ft/sec - Julien Player 3: Max MPH throw: 83.1, Sprint Speed: 25.6 ft/sec - Lee Player 2: Max MPH throw: 85.5, Sprint Speed: 26.6 ft/sec - Lewis Player 5: Max MPH throw: 92.3*, Sprint Speed: 27.9 ft/sec - Castro Player 6: Max MPH throw: 94.1, Sprint Speed: 26.8 ft/sec - Correa *Adjusted max based on average vs. max for Carlos Correa Physical skill sets for Miranda, Julien and Lee overlap with Julien probably being the most athletic of the three.

It's honestly just tough to say how many underlying issues there are. From specialized sports (year round focus on a singular sport/position/action) to the emphasis on velocity resulting in kids concentrating on throwing the ball harder rather than healthier so they can get drafted in the first place. There's a chicken-egg thing going on.

I think the Twins' rotation is deep rather than a monster. It resembles rotations of the past which were unable to advance the Twins in the playoffs due to the lack of a true ace or high end #2. 2010 - Liriano, Pavano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn. Liriano > Lopez Pavano = Ryan Baker < Ober Slowey > Paddack Blackburn = SWR Can't see a big difference between them and what we have here in 2025. We have a rotation built to make the playoffs, not win in the playoffs. Anything can happen, but when the Twins have advanced, they've had a truly formidable top 2-3 pitchers in the rotation.

Viola vs. Santana would be an interesting debate. Santana probably has the edge, but Viola isn't as far out of the conversation on a career basis.

The results of the average pitcher throwing 95mph instead of 80-85mph. Stress on the body is directly related to the velocity.

...and just like that, Lewis pulls a hammy.

Brooks Lee has pretty much just made the opening day roster. Royce Lewis pulled his hamstring running to 1B. Looked pretty bad.