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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Right, the REAL problem is Brooks Lee should be the guy we're talking about as the backup, utility infielder. The Twins had to work hard to find guys who will make Lee look like a starter.
  2. bean5302
    No, the point is tall pitchers don't have any major inherent advantage in velo. It is NOT a significant advantage in achieving velocity. I even linked you to Driveline's analysis and gave you examples of short (6'0") pitchers near the top of the MLB starting pitcher leaderboards. If you'd like to provide some credible source which conflicts with Driveline's analysis, please feel free.
  3. bean5302
    Kriedler's bat disqualifies from him any MLB team's roster. Literally the kind of hitter you'd expect to see promoted directly from Cedar Rapids. It's insane any team would consider him. At all. There is no amount of defense which could ever justify putting a Twins jersey on him. I cannot fathom the move to even give Kriedler an invite. Arcia is probably fine to start with as a backup. The Twins can get a feel for Culpepper in AAA for the first couple months while Arcia plays well enough as a backup utility guy. If Arcia is hitting absolutely unbearable after the first month or two, you just release him.
  4. bean5302
    Lewis has a 12.5% barrel rate. He's hitting balls hard enough, they're just finding gloves.
  5. bean5302
    Hendriks may have been trending better in velo, but better still wasn't good, and he's appeared in seven games at this point. His last appearance was against Boston. 1.0 IP, 2 BBs, 2 Hits, with 3 hard hit batted balls in play. Unlike your traditional ST player, Hendriks was playing for a roster spot. He had to bring his A game. With pedestrian swinging strike rates, poor chase rates, struggles throwing strikes and diminished velo, I guess the Twins saw enough to tell Hendriks he was not going to make opening day. I'm sure Hendriks asked for his release as a formality and the Twins granted it.
  6. bean5302
    Royce Lewis at 88.4mph average exit velo is fine, just not great. He's got a 12.5% barrel rate and a 37.5% hard hit rate with a ridiculous .045 BABIP. Calls for him to be optioned aren't warranted. Keeping Outman despite making mostly poor contact with lots and lots of Ks, plus his history doesn't make sense to me. Even in Outman's rookie year which was good, the expected metrics suggested it was mostly luck. Emma's going to be burning his 3rd option now without a single PA at the MLB level. I don't believe in his success at the MLB level, but keeping Outman over him and seeing what you've got? These are NOT the kinds of moves a team expecting to be competitive makes. Too bad Hendriks just don't have it. What a rough way to end his career :( Keeping Urshela? Like... REALLY???????
  7. bean5302
    You can look at all of Emma's previous ST's too. 2024 was 24 PA and a 54.2% K rate. He's very likely gonna K 50% at the MLB level. I also think you're right the Twins need to play him (or trade him). This is Emma's last option year.
  8. bean5302
    Next time you go to a stadium with a speed pitch game, find a random tall person and ask them to throw their hardest. If they can't hit at least 93mph, ridicule them relentlessly. Throwing 93 is hard. Really hard. Height doesn't really matter for pitch velocity. https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2016/06/pitcher-height-comparison-velocity-elbow-injuries-mechanics/?srsltid=AfmBOoqgTETs-R370YXnhYSyaF0RbGa9luPkj78aukaPq5fpi9u5PUbm Luzardo is 6'0" and averaged 96.4mph on his fastball last year. Skubal is 6'3" and averaged 97.7mph. There's a higher ratio of pitchers who are in that 6'6" range at the top of the chart, but just in general, MLB teams look for tall guys as starters now.
  9. bean5302
    Ober's in a lot of trouble right now. Obviously, ST stats are clean because players are working on things. That's how a guy like Mickey Gasper rocks 1.000 OPS' in Spring Training, after all. Coupled with the drop in velo, there are some glaring concerns. That chase rate is not playable. 22.6% O-Swing and 85.7% O-Contact says Ober's not fooling anybody at all. He's being forced to work in the zone more despite not getting the first pitch over for a strike. If that's just a function of him working on stuff, which it shouldn't be for a veteran like him, then fine. If it's Ober's real stuff, he's absolutely cooked as a starter.
  10. bean5302
    What I've read is things were "collaborative" which had led to me believing Zoll's opinions were highly valuable when Falvey agreed with them. Falvey feels like the type of guy who hires a yes man or brown noser who has an echo chamber for feedback. Just my feel for things.
  11. bean5302
    Joe Mauer was a first ballot HoF'er for a reason. His hit tool was 80. Excellent eye at the plate and pitch recognition and a line drive approach fit him best. Even in the twilight of his career, Mauer's average exit veloicty was 90+mph. Max exit velos look to have been about 108mph. Jenkins seems to have more raw power than Mauer did based on that 110mph exit velo, and he hit 107 in Spring Training. It's totally unfair to compare Jenkins to Mauer, btw. They're not even remotely close to the same hitter. We'll get a much better feel for who Jenkins is as a hitter with the improved metrics available at the AAA level, I expect. There's no question Walker Jenkins is going to be in MLB, it's a question of when. Given how inexperienced he is, and how his body could change as he ages into his 20s will clarify his true ceiling. Also, whether he's truly fit to cover CF vs. the corners will have a big impact.
  12. bean5302
    Emma is going to strikeout 50% at the MLB level. If the power shows up. .150/.250/.400 OPS .650 with a 10% BB and 50% K rate. wRC+ 80ish. He'll near or hit 300 strikeouts in a full season.
  13. bean5302
    Fedko's a non-prospect, but he had a great performance at AA last year, and Kala'i Rosario is fringey so I think the Twins probably just wanted to get a closer look at them to see if anything's been overlooked. I don't believe either had even a 1% shot at making the 40 man, but this spring invite may have influenced how the team will view them throughout the year even if they put up good seasons. Schobel's a comp-B pick from 2022, with a slow promotion cycle (not sure why the article think he's been challenged by the Twins... just challenged to hit). Promotion, struggle, repeat, looks better in his 2nd or 3rd go 'round. Also a borderline non-prospect at this point entering his age 25 season. He really needs to shine this year quickly in AAA if he ever wants to have his number called.
  14. bean5302
    So do you have Emma or Walker Jenkins in your top 10? LOL
  15. bean5302
    Why? Can't hit, can't field. We have plenty of AA and AAA caliber players as good or better than Urshela.
  16. bean5302
    Just go get Noah Miller back if that's what we can stomach.
  17. bean5302
    For people arguing results are what matter... Mickey Gasper is at .364/.462/.727 OPS 1.189 this spring.
  18. bean5302
    Topa is going to get a spot. Nobody cares about ERA for relievers in ST. If anything, the front office will look at Topa's elite looking 32% K rate and ensure he remains on the roster. The only a few concerns with MiLB ST invite guys are: How did their stuff look? (not much to go on here) Do they have an opt-out? No. Do they have options? No. If the don't have an opt-out, what are the consequences of trying to DFA them? Altavilla is on a MiLB contract and he doesn't have an opt-out. He's not making the team. If the Twins DID add Altavilla to the roster, they'd risk losing him if they wanted to DFA him because A) teams could pick him up off waivers and B) Altavilla has 5+ years service time and he could refuse an assignment... which he would.
  19. bean5302
    We've seen Ober at 88-89mph. He gets destroyed. I'm not quite as pessimistic on the velo as an above poster because a few of Ober's early fastballs/sinkers were like 89.9mph (really 90), though velo dropped FAST in later innings with him struggling to hit 88 and several 87.x mph offerings. There are virtually zero successful MLB starters (guys you'd want in the rotation with ERA/FIP/xFIPs under 4.50 with fastballs averaging under 90.0mph. You get super elite first ballot HoF'ers late in their careers (Kershaw) who are the pinnacle of experience and non-fastball offerings with pinpoint control... and pretty much nobody else. Quinn Priester is the exception to the rule above across 127 pitchers with 100+ innings last year. Is Bailey Ober going to be the 1%er? Highly unlikely.
  20. bean5302
    I think it's fair to note Falvey was fired for a reason. Zoll seems to have absorbed Falvey's role, but he's part of the failure. I think Zoll will be fired before the end of the year no matter what happens, TBH. He's a placeholder keeping things together. Way too much doom and gloom in this thread about a backup shortstop. Brooks Lee is not an MLB caliber shortstop. He's not and he never will be, and the Twins have a bunch of other "who knows if this guy should be playing in MLB?" positions. That's the issue. Not the depth at SS, which I think is fine. We've got sufficient emergency depth. Orlando Arcia is fine as a backup depth guy.
  21. bean5302
    https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/austin-martin-exits-game-with-injury A very awkward dive for a ball. Seemed like he spun himself trying to get his glove into a better position and he over-rotated. Looks like the right side of his head may have bounced off the turf.
  22. bean5302
    Concussion issues are obviously scary for players. I hate to hear about Martin getting his bell rung. I don't share the sentiment that he's "finally getting his chance" since he was the opening day utility outfielder in 2024 playing (poorly) in 93 games. I think he was in a good place to get plate appearances again this year, and if the concussion is clears normally, I think he'll still get his opportunities this year. Here's hoping.
  23. bean5302
    I like Arcia here. Exit velocity has looked solid enough this spring at 89.5mph, and he's already had a 104.5mph shot with 2 barrels after recording only 4 barrels all last year. His plate discpline has looked okay, and his overall upside is significantly above our starting "shortstop." The other guys aren't going anywhere.
  24. bean5302
    Chafin. Hands down. He's one of the most reliable relievers in baseball while Funderburk is one of the least reliable. No idea how we got Chafin. All Chafin does is go out and produce 0.5+ fWAR per year for cheap. Among MLB relief pitchers with 120+ innings pitched (243 or 8 per team) from 2021-2025, Chafin ranks 41st in MLB.
  25. bean5302
    I get being optimistic about the team's prospects and pipeline, but, this is way too over the top. Frontline starters pretty much all have a dominant pitch or two. Bradley? No. Abel? Maaayyybe the curve. Rojas? Nothing proven. Matthews? No. As a group, expecting more than #3 caliber results out of them is a big reach. This collection of starters isn't absolutely capped at mid rotation, after all, Joe Ryan has gone from a #5 profile guy to a mid-upper rotation starter since arriving in the league. That said, it's not common for pitchers to be able to develop entirely new pitches and have success with them like Ryan has.
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