bean5302

I mean... there's no absolute guarantee Keirsey can't hit, just it's very unlikely. I think the models are mostly aggressive on him. I'd take OOPSY's projection because that's exactly what somebody in front office would be saying at the end of the year if Keirsey gets more than 150 PA. Need to have Ryan George do a "whoopsie" pitch meeting for the Twins at the end of the year...

He'd clear in 30 seconds as every team smashed the lik... I mean the "NO" button on claiming.

Yeah. 110 pitches max when starting a new batter, but if a new batter starts at 109 pitches, the pitcher can continue to pitch for as many pitches needed to retire the batter. Last year, John Luke Glanton managed 119.2 innings of college ball pitching including a 122 pitch performance against North Greenville on 5/16/24. The very specific rule here says Glanton is required to get at least a whopping 3 calendar days rest. Under 25 pitches? No rest required. Guy could literally throw 25 pitches in relief in game 1 of a double header, come back and throw 109 pitches before facing the last batter who gets to 3-2 and then fouls off 9 pitches before finally striking out with 149+ pitches thrown that day. But then the college would have to give him the next 3 whole calendar days off!! They're stringent rules!

I'd expect Raya will be at 125+ innings this year if he's good enough to start, that is. He went 97.2 innings last year and was averaging 5 innings per start over his final 9 games last year. Raya was highly efficient as well, going 5.0 innings in an average of about 70 pitches.

To further quantify Keirsey's hitting prowess by season at the level he played the most... 2018 = a21 Rookie Ball - .307/.371/.427 wRC+ 111 2019 = a22 Low A Ball - .137/.245/.161 wRC+ 29 <--- no longer a good prospect 2020 = DNP 2021 = a24 High A Ball - .199/.297/.433 wRC+ 96 2022 = a25 AA Ball - .271/.329/.395 wRC+ 86 <--- no longer a prospect, period. 2023 = a26 AA Ball - .305/.363/.488 wRC+ 123 2024 = a27 AAA Ball - .300/.368/476 wRC+ 119 Now, the whole "he hit at AAA" argument conveniently ignores Keirsey's age 26 results at AAA in 2023. 2023 = a26 AAA Ball - .264/.375/.364 wRC+ 93 <--- didn't hit well at AAA, even at an advanced age.

Canterino pitched a normal amount at Rice. He never even hit 100 innings for them. It's not Rice's fault. The Twins didn't have a problem tacking on 20 innings after Canterino's final season at Rice, either. The facts are Canterino had a violent, unorthodox delivery and his body didn't hold up as he aged into his 20s. Canterino was ranked 85th in innings pitched in college baseball in his final year at Rice. Behind several guys who were drafted and didn't run into the injury issues Canterino did. This Rice conspiracy theory stuff has gotten old. Reid Detmers at age 19 threw 113 innings vs the 99 innings a 21 year old Canterino did in 2019. Detmers also thrice threw as many or more pitches per game that season at 119, 118, and 116 compared to Canterino's max of 116, and Detmer's 4th highest count of 114 matched Canterino's only other game above 109.

Buxton is not and never will be fully healthy. Period. There is no such thing. Buxton has a couple long term chronic problems which will keep causing him problems, and the idea none of those chronic issues will show up during the full season is very long indeed. If Buxton doesn't have any injuries or extra rest days during the season, that'd probably get him to 130 games with normal missed time due to the chronic back, knee and migraine issues. That said, Baldelli will start throwing in extra rest days, especially as the chronic issues start showing with things like knee or back tightness. With the extra rest days and a totally healthy season, Buxton could probably top out at 110-120 games in theory. Unfortunately, Buxton has a long history of normal injuries so him getting to 100 games is a long shot. That's why it was a huge celebration for him last year. Now, aside from the health issue, just how good do people think Buxton is? He doesn't get on base. Getting on base is pretty important to the value of a bat. As a high K, high power, streaky hitter, Buxton's season stat line will reflect his last couple weeks of the season. If he's in one of his slumps, the final numbers will be mediocre. If he's on one of his hot streaks, he'll post up pretty impressive results. If Buxton plays 150 games, he's a 5-6 WAR player. Very good, but removed from MVP levels, and he's not exactly going to be "scary" to opposing teams. He's no Shoehei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge or prime Mike Trout.

Career averages from expected contributors this year Miranda .299 Correa .274 Lewis .268 France .262 Wallner .254 Martin .253 Vazquez .252 <-- this is almost unbelievable Castro .248 Buxton .244 Bader .242 Larnach .236 Julien .233 Jeffers .230 Lee .221 It's a good starting spot for people trying to identify the likelihood a guy hits .250+.

Correlation does not equal causation. Starters turn into relievers solely because they're ineffective as starters (Funderburk) or because have injury concerns (Duran), but the hope is maybe the team can salvage some value by converting them to relievers where a pitcher can throw a little harder or drop ineffective pitches from their arsenal to concentrate on the stuff they have which works. Kody Funderburk was a failed starter. Starters have a higher likelihood of injury when compared to relievers for a multitude of reasons. Starting puts greater strain on pitcher's bodies. It's pretty much just established fact at this point, and it's hard to believe you'd even attempt to argue differently based on a colossal amount of established methodology. I don't know where you're drawing your theories from, but it's certainly not from any research or data I've ever seen.

Pitching 1x per week and building him up is definitely a starter path. Relievers don't throw 50 pitches a game like Prielipp did in his first start. The path outlined by Zoll is a starter build up. If Prielipp was viewed as a reliever, we'd be seeing him used frequently as a reliever.

People really upset with Gasper and his 12 PA, LOL. Yep, that's the guy who's costing the Twins those wins! It's not the bench players who are holding the Twins back. It's the starting lineup and starting pitching. Not saying there might not be better options on the 40 man once injuries clear up, just that the focus on fixing the lineup by swapping out a guy who averages 1 plate appearance per game probably isn't going to be the saving grace. Should be interesting to watch SWR's velocity next start. Conditioning was a major issue for him last year. That said, he really hasn't pitched well enough to keep getting starts in the first place. Both SWR and Paddack continue to look questionable as legitimate rotation options to me. Read the game thread yesterday. Lot's of "good starts" for a guy who went 5.2 IP and put 12 base runners on while allowing 4 ER. Lots of praise for a 6.35 ERA...

Maybe they can have a consultant who bailed on the franchise help him out? LOL. Wait, probably too expense. Dave Saint Peter and Joe Pohlad can coach him!

Prielipp ceiling as a reliever 2.0 WAR. Back end starter value? 2.0 WAR. Apparently, Falvey views Prielipp differently than the coaching staff since Prielipp is on a path for use as a starter. It's not a good message to have the front office leadership and the development plan at odds. Falvey needs to go.

Miami relief pitching and starting pitching ERA rank: 2024 = 22nd and 29th 2023 = 21st and 8th 2022 = 22nd and 8th 2021 = 7th and 13th 2020 = 26th and 14th 2019 = 25th and 16th 2018 = 30th and 20th 2017 = 21st and 26th The Marlins have had quite a bit of success with trades as they sell off all their assets, but they've got very little in the way of draft/development. Alcantara, Lopez, Luzardo, they were all trade acquisitions. Braxton Garrett was a 7th overall draft pick who looks like he's panning out, though. Aside from that, the reliever history isn't stunningly great or anything.

@IndianaTwin @Patzky No delay on adding Dobnak to the 40 man roster and calling him up. As noted, Dobnak won't be available for at least 4-5 more days because of the pitches thrown. When a player is DFA'd, they're exposed to all 29 teams and given an immediate opportunity to be added to another team's active roster. It's not a viable way to manipulate roster limits for what is almost exclusively young player talent so there aren't any mandatory recall timeframes which have to be observed. If a player is good enough for MLB, the chances they have a contract which prevents another team from claiming them before that player has 5 years of service time is almost non-existent. Dobnak has not been MLB worthy the last few years, but should he continue to impress on his opportunities, the likelihood he gets claimed continues to increase on the DFA/waive/assign/purchase/callup/DFA cycle. After all, Dobnak's contract is $4MM including next year's $1MM buyout. Pretty dirt cheap for a guy who could intrigue a team as a back end starter or long reliever. The minimum 15 day option rule it to prevent teams from effectively expanding their rosters.

'Ol tree trunks. I remember when Gardy put Parmelee in center field...

Prielipp getting the pitch count just about where I expected. 50 limit or so, just like Raya started last year. I expect the Twins will probably follow the '24 Raya approach this year with Prielipp, and provided the lefty can avoid injury problems, we'll be seeing 5-6 inning starts and 80 pitches from him by the end of the year. Maybe 100 innings total. He'll have to pitch better than he did in this game to get there, though. AA will be a big test. Prielipp won't just be able to throw fastballs by guys, and the players in AA have the talent to punish pitches which aren't really "mistakes" at a much higher rate. We'll see how he adapts.

Lewis has always had a pretty extreme level of confidence, and it certainly comes across as arrogant sometimes. There's some context people might want to consider: 1. He's 25 years old. 2. He's been ridiculed, threatened, and harassed by the nameless internet trolls. See #1. 3. He (had) elite athleticism. We're talking like 3-4 plus tools. Not sure if his run tool will ever return. 4. The guy's confidence is hanging on by a thread as far as I'm concerned. The 'ol fake it 'till you make it. I don't like Lewis' propensity to name other players partly because it comes across as highly disrespectful, and partly because Lewis hasn't done enough to earn the right to compare himself or other players to successful guys publicly like that. When you hear interviews with MLB players, they don't talk about other guys on other teams comparing themselves or even other players to each other like that. There's no way it turns out well. The Twins having a sit down with him on PR isn't a bad idea, and Lewis calling up Schwarber and apologizing isn't a bad idea.

I'd like to see him piggyback with SWR, but Adams just pitched yesterday. Cory Lewis would be a good call for that, I think.

Around here, that'd be grounds for writers designating him as a dark horse for the 2025 Cy Young along with the rest of the elite Twins' rotation. Seriously, though, nice for Henriquez to look good out of the gate like that for Miami. It'll get him a longer leash this year and he might even catch on long term as a middle reliever. That said, a 4.50 FIP last year in AAA to go along with his career AAA ERA of 5.09 don't sparkle very much.

Man this site has become toxic. I need a break.

I'm not sure how many viable starting shortstops Nick thinks the average MLB team actually has?

I don't even know what's going on with Holland. He played SS in ST, but then got shut down in early March. I'm assuming it was a sprain or something at this point. Correa -> Castro -> Prato -> Martin is my guess as of today.

Trading Santana allowed the "cheap Pohlad's" to extend Cuddyer, Nathan, Morneau and Mauer.

I didn't realize Winokur was the new Walker Jenkins. It's tough when every Twins prospect is the best prospect in baseball around here.