bean5302

Kepler has nothing to prove. He's an average starting right fielder right now who is cheap, and that's valuable enough to keep a job. If Kepler stumbles further this year, his value will drop off so in that regard, he doesn't have a lot of wiggle room. That said, Kepler needs two consecutive years of increased performance against the shift and to regain a step in sprint speed to elevate himself to being viewed as All Star caliber again. An improvement just this year will be met with skeptisicm.

First question. What is the Twins' front office objective this year? From what I've seen, it's certainly not to win. Also, I don't believe the Twins have a snowballs chance in hell of competing against Detroit or Chicago this year without a major roster shakeup or some really good luck and a lot of guys taking steps forward. While I don't think the Twins are "bad" at a lot of positions, they're far from good, either. Given that, I want to see Ober, Ryan, Winder, Bundy and Balazovic as the opening day rotation. Regarding the pessimist outlook on innings, I think people are overly dramatic. Serious innings limits are generally imposed on younger arms, not older prospects and MLB veterans. Ober was limited to about 80 pitches per start last year and he was still pitching 5 innings per start. I think Ober could approach 180 innings this year with pitch limit of 90 and I think the Twins are more likely to limit his pitches per outing than his innings because that's what they did last year. Ryan pitched 15 innings for the Olympics in addition to the 92 innings he pitched between MLB and MiLB. I don't expect him to be on a serious innings limit, either. 150 innings, easy. No innings limit for Bundy. Winder and Balazovic pitched 72 and 97 innings, respectively. I think a lot depends on their throwing programs. Griffen Jax, Drew Strotman and Randy Dobnak are available as spot starters or long relievers to ease the pitch count/innings burden if necessary.

The average pitcher in MLB probably throws 93mph today and plenty throw close to or over 100mph. It's a max effort game for pitchers now, the time between pitches has doubled allowing for even greater strain on their arms which is why they tire faster. The pitch limit, innings limit, etc is all in an attempt to avoid pitchers throwing max effort while fatigued and blowing out their UCL because their mechanics break down.

The casual fan doesn't even realize there's a lockout. Most people don't care about baseball (other than big name moves) until Spring Training officially starts. This lockout won't make even one iota of impact for the vast majority of casual fans of the game. At least that's my opinion.

Sabato played in 2019, 2020 and 2021. His last game in 2020 was on 3/11/20 with North Carolina vs. Virginia Military Institute and the rest of the season was canceled. His first game in 2021 was 5/4/21 and Sabato participated in MiLB Spring Training. There's a 1 year and not quite 2 month gap there, but Sabato also participated in MiLB Spring Training activities before that. If you're talking about missing time prior to 2019, I struggle to see how that's relevant in 2021. In the linked article, Sabato talks about his plate approach. "Sabato: “It’s hunting mistakes and strikes. You don’t want to swing at the pitcher’s best pitches. That goes for any hitter. You’re not going to be successful doing that. For me, it’s being patient, yet not too patient. I can’t be not swinging it fastballs that are in my hot zone, so it’s about being prepared on every pitch, knowing that if a mistake is coming, I’m ready for it. That and being disciplined enough to lay off certain pitches that might be a strike, but aren’t something I’m going to be able to do a whole lot with.”" https://blogs.fangraphs.com/twins-prospect-aaron-sabato-on-mashing-and-hopefully-not-dhing/ Sabato planning to not swing at strikes and waiting for mistake pitches doesn't seem like a recipe for success to me since, as I stated above, I believe those become far less frequent as batters progress through the minors. .189/.365/.357 at Low A for a 22 year old college-drafted bat only slugger is abysmal. Sabato performed far better at High A across 97 plate appearances with a .253/.402/.613 line to give some hope, but that stat line from Fort Myers doesn't just disappear. The 20% walk rate is nice, but unsustainable with a K rate in excess of 20% IMHO (and Sabato is north of 30%). Sabato admits he's a poor runner and it's clear 1B or DH is how he's viewed. 6'2" and 230lbs, Sabato claims he's leaner than he was when he was playing shortstop, but the height and weight would suggest extremely high athleticism (fast runner) if he actually was well conditioned. I've seen the "I'm not overweight, I'm athletic" line from Twins prospects and players before. It makes me skeptical and his own comments and scouts add to my skepticism. 6'2 and 230lbs = NFL Fullback. Fournette (6'1 and 228) was clocked at 33ft/sec during a 90 yard run... in pads. That's faster than Byron Buxton's listed sprint speed. The Twins also view Sabato as a 1B / DH only candidate from my understanding. If he was athletic and had SS skills, the Twins would at least be working him out at 3B. As much as you may personally like Sabato, his comments, apparent plate approach, apparent lack of conditioning and poor results at Low-A paint good reasons to be a bit bearish on him.

Bendy, bend bend bend. Baines had a period of time he was good. Well better than average and his bat got better from that point; however, the AL had the DH and his team chose to move him to DH despite adequate defense which hurt his production value. If you can't understand this, I can't help you.

It would benefit Houston's MLB team. It would benefit Houston's prospect system. It would benefit Jake Odorizzi because he's guaranteed to pitch no matter how badly he performs. Those are 3 sides. Conversely. It would hurt Minnesota's prospect system It would hurt Minnesota's MLB team because Winder, Balazovic, Ober and Ryan are all better than Odorizzi It would hurt Minnesota's payroll because we'd be paying a player we don't want on the team.

There are red flags all over the place with Sabato. Had his results not improved dramatically to close the year out, I would have been okay with writing him off as bust. I think it's rare a successful MLB player struggles in the low minors and Sabato's plate approach is passive. He waits for mistake pitches and crushes them. Unfortunately for him, mistake pitches generally become fewer and fewer as you move up the minors. I think he'll be exposed badly in AA or AAA as the pitcher talent level jumps dramatically and their control and finesse take a leap up as well, but I think he did enough damage to close the year out to keep an eye on him. It's not like it matters, though. He doesn't need a 40 man roster spot right now so there's no risk to letting him play.

It was the opinion being given by the person ( @Rosterman ) I was responding to when I disagreed that Blyleven was essentially an innings eater/journeyman/workhorse/accumulator whatever term you like the most. You made a hot take on my post without context. When I explained, you made another hot take without context.

The most infuriating thing about Sano is, just like Rosario, he could be a plus defender.

Right... as I said, still not enough to be in the Hall of Fame. Not deserving of the title never actually all that great of a player which to me implies he was average-ish, maybe a little better.

Whew! If Winder turned out to be Brad Radke (or Balazovic) the Twins would be absolutely giddy. Radke wasn't too far off a potential Hall of Fame candidate until the injuries had him call the career early. Retired after age 33 playing through serious shoulder issues in 2006, Radke accumulated 39 fWAR and 46 bWAR in his shortened career. Another 5 years, and he'd likely have posted up 60 bWAR, probably making him a borderline candidate.

Workhorse is generally a term reserved for a solid, but unspectacular innings eater. Blyleven pitched a ton of innings, but the innings included dominant performances.

Honestly... the robo ump is the suggestion to get rid of things like visual lines. Why have them? The robots sure don't need them. We can get rid of the plates as you suggest, too. Actually, we can just have players be motion captured and then re-created using CGI. The spreadsheets and databases can then run the games. Like a super advanced version of the simulations in video games. There's no reason to actually play the games at all. Unfortunately, there will be bugs in the simulations, I just know it. Spreadsheets are more reliable. It's far more interesting to watch a macro run in Excel anyway. Kinda like watching that green screen of characters in the Matrix. I'm not good enough to read it like I'm sure you are though... all I see is line drive, home run, strike out.

I disagree Sano was always expected to move to DH. The narrative on him has continuously changed. 2010-2011 = probably going to have to move off SS to 3B as he fills out 2015-2016 = Stud 3B for the foreseeable future as he was super athletic, had a cannon arm and great reflexes. 2017 = Adequate 3B, but his bat more than makes up for it! 2018 = Probably moving to first base after Joe Mauer retires due to declining defense. 2020 = Thank goodness Mauer retired so we can get Sano off 3B and over to 1B where even his athleticism will play for the foreseeable future 2022 = He was always expected to be a DH anyway! I'm not the one who invented UZR/150 so don't blow this off as my personal opinion. This is a list of the worst first baseman in baseball each year and how bad they were by UZR/150. Many people have watched Moneyball and heard "defense doesn't matter" at first base because it's rare a player struggles at first base so much that it actually makes any significant impact on a game. i.e. +/- 5 for UZR/150 isn't particularly signifcant. I submit, for your viewing pleasure just how horrible Miguel Sano was. -38.4 UZR/150 is unheard of. 43% worse than any other starting first baseman in the stat's history. More than that, Sano was also the worst first baseman in baseball in 2020 as well. Again, a first in the stat's history where a player has not only been the worst first baseman in baseball once, but twice. In Sano's case, back to back years. It's not some abberation. Sano is a horrible defender. From a player who was considered a stud 3B to a guy who is the worst first baseman in MLB history it's pretty easy to draw the conclusion the guy just doesn't even care. Year Player Team Innings UZR/150 2021 Miguel Sano MIN 996 -38.4 2008 Mike Jacobs FLA 927.1 -26.8 2015 Pedro Alvarez PIT 906.1 -23.1 2005 Adam LaRoche ATL 1019.1 -20.8 2007 Richie Sexson SEA 991.2 -17.1 2019 Josh Bell PIT 1160.2 -16.4 2010 Paul Konerko CHW 1102.1 -15.3 2020 Miguel Sano MIN 423.1 -15.3 2002 Mo Vaughn NY 1124.2 -14.1 2011 Freddie Freeman ATL 1370.1 -13.4 2006 Prince Fielder 1319.1 -12.3 2012 Eric Hosmer KCR 1277 -10.9 2004 Rafael Palmeiro BAL 1137.2 -10.2 2009 Nick Johnson - - - 1067 -9.9 2003 Carlos Pena DET 1094.2 -9.8 2017 Danny Valencia SEA 984 -9.4 2018 Jose Abreu CHW 999.2 -8.5 2016 Chris Carter - - - 1338 -5.0 2013 Justin Smoak SEA 1084.1 -4.2 2014 Ryan Howard PHI 1256.1 -3.5 Then there was the argument about how long it's been since the Twins had a good first baseman. You'd have to go all the way back to... Joe Mauer, who was the best first baseman in all of baseball by UZR/150 in 2017 and again among the best in 2018, his final year. In 2019, C.J. Cron was average at the position.

It's funny the impact an clickbait style headline makes on interaction From October From a week ago

Robo umps are a failure even if they're perfect at calling balls and strikes. They're boring.

Sano Donaldson Kirilloff Rooker I would certainly think at least 1 of those 4 will be moved. None of them are decent candidates to spend time in the minors, none of them have great defensive value anymore. I don't think there's too much question Sano is further down the depth chart than Kirilloff at this point. Sano melted the faces off defenseive coaches last year with a mind numbing, inconceivable -38.4 UZR/150 in 996 innings. They only asked Sano to cover third for 37 innings so the SSS factor is huge, but still... he posted a comic strip punchline -159.1 UZR/150. Over the course of a year at that 3B rate, Miguel Sano would be -15 WAR from defensive contribution only. Basically offsetting the two best players in baseball just with defense gaffs. Simply put, Sano is a beer league softball player when it comes to defensive skill at this point. When it comes to his bat, Sano isn't as bad. I disagree with any attempt to paint Sano as a valuable full time hitter, though. I'm not sure you can classify Sano as "streaky" either. He spends very long periods of time looking completely inept at the plate, followed by long periods where he's good enough to start at DH by basic stats alone, but it's not just Sano's streaks, it's the fact he's often an automatic out (slider, down and away = strike 3) whenever the opposing team really needs it. That's why Sano's WPA is consistently negative. When the Twins need him, he can't produce. All that said, there's nothing new about Sano here except the truly exceptionally embarrassing defense from somebody who once looked like a total stud. The Twins are probably stuck with Sano. Maybe another team will take him just based on how he performed in the second half, but I don't know about that. I think the Twins are looking to move Donaldson or Rooker at their earliest convenience.

I'm not saying take anything away. I'm saying the potential for manipulating the system designed to improve competition already exists, but it's not actually a factor. Right now, there's nothing stopping Pittsburgh from grabbing Miguel Caberera from the Tigers if the Tigers throw in a couple top prospects... except the no trade agreement. The players aren't stupid and there's a reason they've been asking for no trade agreements. That kinda makes concerns about salary cap/floor manipulation moot. Tampa Bay would still have every ability to trade away their top players for assets, they'd just have to find veterans to give 1-2 year contracts to fill out the team. It's not about 2 wins. It's about Tampa Bay not forcing the New York Yankees to pay the mortgage and light bill at the Trop. It's about requiring Pittsburgh to actually try to win a little bit. Tampa Bay has been exceptional, but no other team in baseball has been able to come close to what they've done.

Blyleven was no workhorse. Maybe you could call him that late in his career, but Blyleven was a very dominant pitcher early in his career.

Baseball as a league sport dates back, literally, 151 years and the National League dates back to 1876 (146 years). During that span, players of the sport meeting those figures are exceptionally rare. There are 19,969 baseball players who've played since the creation of the National League. 24 pitchers in history have 300+ wins 0.12% of all players. 4 pitchers who have played in the past 20 years are on the list. Zero who've played in the past 10 years. Greg Maddux Roger Clemens (was not elected to HoF) Tom Glavine Randy Johnson 32 batters in history have 3,000 hits 0.16% of all players. 8 players who have played in the past 20 years are on the list. 5 batters who've played in the past `10 years. Derek Jeter (2014) Albert Pujols (2021) Adrian Beltre (2018) Alex Rodriguez (2016) (will not be elected to HoF) Ichiro Suzuki (2019) Craig Biggio Rickey Henderson Rafael Palmeiro 300 wins is no longer possible. Pitchers skip starts or go to the short IL any time there's an issue and they make a maximum of 33 starts a season. Usually, the best pitchers give you 30-32. Extended bullpens are called upon quickly, reducing the innings pitched or the ability to earn come from behind or late game wins. Andy Pettitte is the closest with 256 and he played until 9 years ago. CC Sabathia and Bartolo Colon follow closely with 251 and 247 and then far behind them is Justin Verlander with 226. Justin Verlander only has 226 wins. Verlander played on good teams making the playoffs 8 times in his career. 1x MVP as a pitcher. 2x Cy Young (10x he received votes), RoY, 8x All Star. Led all of MLB in wins 3 times. He is, without a doubt, one of the greatest pitchers of all time with a long and storied career. His name is synonomous with Cy Young, Ace and Dominance. Baseball has changed over time and what players are allowed to do has changed with it. Sometimes making goals easier (500 home runs) or impossible (300 wins). What I don't think has changed is how well players performed against their peers. The truly great players usually have a 7+ or so year span where they are truly elite. The career WAR bar is set around 60 for people... but that was supposed to be an automatic election at 60 WAR, not a qualification. I'm a small hall guy... but not a micro hall guy.

That's not quite fair to Baines. He was very good. Career OPS+ of 121 and he was productive with a OPS+ 136 age 40 season. A 5x All Star, 4 consecutive years being in the MVP voting, not to mention Baines was an average-ish right fielder. Baines managed an average of 3.0 WAR per season for a 5 year period 1982-1986, but as his bat developed, he was moved to DH. With the same bat in RF, Baines would have been putting together 3-4 WAR campaigns on a perennial rate. So had Baines played in the National League, he'd probably have more like 48 WAR than the 38 in his career. Still not enough for the Hall of Fame in my opinion, but better than I feel like you're stating. As far as I'm concerned, there needs to be a dominant 5-8 year stretch (depends on how dominant) and the player needs to be well above average for 10+ or so. There's also the problem of the good 'ol steroid era and how it really screwed players who didn't cheat when it comes to stats. A player with 55 WAR and an OPS+ of 135 would have probably had 70 WAR and an OPS+ more like 150 across their career had their competition not been able to inflate their accomplishments with the needle.

No trade agreements seem to be largely forgotten here. This circumvention of the system could already happen but never does.

I didn't like WPA much at first, but after investigating, I came around to value it far higher. The logic and implementation is sound. Unfortunately for your position, statisticians who are paid to actually know what they're talking about continue to advocate for the WPA and have offered strong correlations across WAR and great players.

No. It is not positively weighted for relief pitchers. It's weighted for plays which impact the outcome of the game one way or the other and it's why Miguel Sano keeps posting negative WPAs despite having positive WAR. Miguel Sano is an easy out when the game is on the line and other teams can employ strategy to effect the outcome of the game. If the Twins are down 12-1 and nobody is on base, a team isn't going to care who is pitching to Miguel Sano or whether they have a slider they can throw down and away. WPA is built on comparing players to averages. What is the average likelihood this play results in a positive outcome? It doesn't care if Roger Clemens, Mariano Rivera or Kevin Slowey is on the mound. Because Mariano Rivera was pitching when he was pitching (high leverage), the Yankees won far more games than the cumulative WAR would suggest. Rivera made pitches when it mattered the most. Also, Jack Morris is in the Hall of Fame because of perceived WPA, even though the arguments about his fake WPA have actually been debunked. The idea he regularly pitched up to or down to the competition and situation (Minnesota Vikings Syndrome)